 keeping the world company. It's really important these days. And the title to our episode is Zelensky, Near the End of His Rope. Has the United States abandoned Ukraine? Okay, and we have my co-host, Tim Appichella. We have our esteemed guest, Gene Rosenfeld, emeritus, retired UCLA, history, and other things, lots of things. And Manfred Hennigsen, UH political science, retired emeritus. So welcome to the show, everybody. Good morning. So let me just say a few things here. And that is, when you say that somebody's running out of ammunition and you say it in a public statement to the world, aren't you really saying that person is just about out, or may be out? So it's a little confusing because you don't necessarily know exactly what the state of ammunition is. And when you talk about Congress, that's confusing to begin with because we don't know where that's going, although it certainly seems like they're not going to support Ukraine. Certainly for reasons of his own, or maybe for Vladimir Putin's reasons, Donald Trump. Trump is not going to support Ukraine. And his acolytes are not going to support Ukraine. And so Zelensky is left holding the bag, so to speak. We heard about 50 billion dollars coming from the EU a couple, three weeks ago. And we don't know where that is. Maybe one of you does. On the other hand, Ukraine is able to persist even in a war of attrition, and is able to sink ships as it did yesterday. And that's all to their credit. They're managing. On the other hand, how long can they last? So let me go around starting with you, Tim. What is, as far as we know, the state of the war and the state of Ukraine's ability to deal with Russia? Well, depending on what article you read, it looks pretty grim when you have issues that manpower is running scarce to fill the ranks, to muster the troops. When you read articles about how the Ukrainian forces are forced to give up territory because their supply line is low. And what's really tragic about that story is that you have to think about the lives, the Ukrainian lives it took to gain that territory. And now they're giving it up because of their supply lines. So when you read stories like that, it doesn't cast a positive story that they're making progress and they're going to be able to hold out indefinitely because it doesn't look that way. So I think there's a red flag in the air, and we have to respond to it. And Europe has to respond to their commitments faster. And that's in the form of ammunition and logistics. See, Europe, you're often optimistic. I've heard you say optimistic things. How optimistic are you about this? Is he getting to the end of his rope now? And if he is, what's the next step? Well, as a historian, I look more at the recent past than the future. I don't predict. My optimism is based on comparisons. Let's go to where a year ago, well, February, yeah, 20th, 2022. This war started. And where was Ukraine and Russia? Where were Ukraine and Russia then? Russia had Crimea. It was fighting Ukraine to a standstill in Luhansk and Donetsk. That's where it is today. The only difference is that Ukraine is taken from Russia, control over the Black Sea to some extent. It's degraded one third of its naval power and its Black Sea fleet with the innovative use of cheap drones. As to where the money's coming from, nobody knows, except I think 50 billion dollars is expected from Europe. No, they don't have all the equipment. They need mostly what they need is manpower at this point, in addition to weapons and ammunition. And where is that manpower going to come from? That's the big thing. Russia, on the other hand, when Putin gave his interview to Tucker Carlson the other day, was making little signs that he is a rational player. He is not looking for a nuclear intervention. He is somewhat holding on until he can get a peace agreement that gives him exactly what he's got now, which is what he had at the beginning. And the United States has to make the calculation in an election year as to whether or not it's going to go for that type of resolution or it's going to be more muscular in supporting Ukraine, which it does not look like it's going to do. So I think what we're heading for cautiously is a war of attrition or stasis because Russia has taken a lot of hits with manpower too until Russia can get at least what it said. Putin has said to all of the Russians, what is Russian territory? I have to tell you that when you talk about what Putin says, I think of the movie, it was a comedy, Stalak 17 years ago. And there was a guy who got a letter from his wife through the Red Cross. And she said, you'll never believe it. I woke up one morning and I opened the door to our house and in front of the door was a little basket, a little wicker basket. And in there was a newborn babe. So I'm going to take this babe and going to raise it as ours. And for the rest of the movie, this guy in the Stalak said, I believe it. I believe it. I believe it. I don't believe anything Putin says. And it's all inconsistent. And you saw the Tim Snyder's article about him. And now he had all his historical facts wrong the other day. That was extraordinary. So Manfred, you know, this has secondary implications, aside from the attrition, aside from the fact that Volodymyr Zelensky can't necessarily raise additional recruits for his army, is the average age in the army is over 40. And although he may be getting sub-Solentio, maybe he's getting weapons and money from somewhere which we don't know actually. In fact, he's got to be deteriorating. You know he's deteriorating in his cadre. He's had what he call it personnel problems. And I wonder about whether Vladimir Putin is responsible in some way for that. But he's having trouble. And he's more desperate than before. And all of this has a secondary effect on the rest of Europe, Manfred. What is that effect? What is the effect when Trump says he's going to pull out a NATO? He's going to drop the EU? He's not going to support Ukraine? All these things must be having an effect on the average European. What is that effect? Well, contrary to you, I'm not pessimistic about Ukraine and Zelensky. I think the impact on Europe may be very wholesome. They will get the act together. And maybe this peculiar behavior of part of the political class in the US will help the unification of the EU. And I think they needed that push if it's interpreted as a negative push. I think it has positive impacts. It has positive impacts in Germany. But it has positive impacts certainly in those countries that are mostly threatened, like Poland and the Baltic states. And there's one thing that none of you, but especially not you, Jay, mentioned. And that is the spirit of the Ukrainian people. I do not think they are in the mood to surrender. And I will tell you, having traveled in the Ukraine in 2016 for two weeks from Lviv to Kiev to Odessa, what stunned me at that point, I was totally unaware, never been to the Ukraine. It's not only the greatness territorially of the Ukraine going by train from Kiev to Odessa, the second largest of the Russia-European country. No, what surprised me was at that time, 2016, this unbelievable spirit of them belonging to Europe. I mean, that was a political movement in the making since 2004. And it became really central in 2014. But in 2016, it was absolutely stunning, wherever we went, wherever we talked to people. This identification with Europe was profound. Well, you know, since then, Manfred, we see those bombed-out buildings. They have been aware of that. I mean, you read the last article by Marsha Gessen in The New Yorker, you know, and you get a wonderful impression of that. I do not think Ukraine is lost. Okay, I think it's only fair that we go back to Jean for a minute for reaction. Jean, do you agree with that? Nobody can know the future. The people of Ukraine have suffered the greatest catastrophe in the population, aside from the Shoah, the Holodomor, the Great Famine. They... A lot of the more, yes. Yes. And if Russia were to succeed in getting all of Ukraine, which I don't think is possible at this point at all, because it would be a tremendous loss for the United States if that were to occur, because this is a proxy war with the United States and Europe, for the West. It's part of Putin's grand plan. So I think that some sort of settlement resolution will prevail that will, as Putin said, the United States can create a resolution with dignity, he said, with dignity. In other words, to look like the United States hasn't lost a thing. And I think they're looking for that sweet spot right now, while both armies are, in a sense, stalemated with each other. And I don't think Putin is really happy about this war. It has not turned out the way he wants. It's had severe impact on Russia itself and the fleet and the people and his standing. So he almost had a coup d'etat at one point. So I think, really, there's a good chance that Ukraine will prevail. But I don't think that they're going to wind up with those two territories that Putin has already claimed. You know, there was an article, Tim, not to go about how the attrition and the effect on Ukraine would encourage the countries of Western Europe to suggest and participate in peace negotiation. And actually, when you think about it, Biden, who could be a lame duck on this issue, would do the same thing he's doing in Israel. He would make every effort to stop the violence and insist on a peace negotiation, which may or may not be the moral thing to do or the right thing to do, but it's a political solution given the pressure he has in the U.S. So all that considered and considering also that it doesn't look very bright, maybe these guys would disagree with me, it doesn't look very bright for American aid, either in weapons or money to Ukraine right now, isn't Gene right that we're going to wind up in a peace negotiation here? I would hope so. I hope there's a peace negotiation. And I think with any negotiation, there's a recognition that you don't get what you want. And I think Gene's spot on. I think at the end of the day, after many thousands of lives have been lost, the borders are very similar to what took place before the invasion of Russia into Ukraine. I think that's where it ends up. Zelensky has the ongoing effort to maintain a public relations campaign to keep the synergy going so that nations support the effort financial or otherwise. And that's a daunting task to keep the support going. He's got to really remember that he's got to keep stories out of the news about financial misappropriation from his people and his own administration, if you will. And those kind of stories will kill support. And particularly the Maga Republicans will jump on those stories and say, see, this is why we shouldn't fund Ukraine. And some of those stories have already gotten out. And so it's imperative that Zelensky clean house and keep a vigilant watch on his generals and on his administrative staff to make sure that those stories, a, don't occur and, b, more importantly, don't get out in the news headlines. But you have to keep remembering that the support has to continue without victories in the headlines. Because that seems to be what took place this last summer that we were waiting for victory headlines and they weren't forthcoming. And so I think there was a disappointment, if you will, from Congress that the war had stalled. And therefore their interest and support had waned. And that's wrong thinking. And I hope that we get past that. But all the things you were saying about the United States are true, but they are not true when you're talking about Europe. You have in Europe a completely different response on the way you have a greater movement toward unification in the support of the Ukraine. And that is quite amazing that that has happened. And it is not limited to Germany, but to all of Europe, including strangely enough, Great Britain also. So for that reason, you know, I'm not as pessimistic as you are. Yes, there will be negotiations where they lead. We don't know at this point. I mean, you have to remember that the impact of the war on the civil population in Russia is as depressing as in the Ukraine. And when you're looking at the soldiers that are fighting in the Russian army, they are not only the prison population, but many of them are from the Asian parts of Russia. And their connection to this war emotionally is not very, very strong. So I don't make very good soldiers, do they? They're not very aggressive on the front lines. I don't know. I don't know whether they do. But I think your American perspective is I don't know whether it's I want to turn to Gina and something that's been discovered that this has been from day one, a proxy war between Russia and the U.S. And is the fact that Congress is locked up on this, and it's not likely to provide support to Ukraine, does that change or would that change in the future the nature of the proxy war? It seems to me that if the U.S. is tying its own hands, it's really this is not a proxy war for the U.S. It may be a proxy war against the U.S. as far as Putin is concerned, but aren't things changing? Isn't Putin really dealing with Western Europe? And isn't Ukraine the proxy of Western Europe or becoming the proxy of Western Europe? Well, I don't think you can separate Western Europe from America in Putin's mind and in his strategy and in the aggression that he has promoted in this century toward Western Europe and the United States, what he calls hegemony over the global economy and social and military affairs. We are still the most dominant nation in the world. He's working very hard to change that. He's working very hard to have control over Europe. I don't think he wants to occupy Europe, but he does want Europe to be within his camp. And Ukraine definitely within the Russian Federation. In fact, he does not make any distinction between Ukraine and Russia. So number one, if he gets away with that, then he's poised on the borders of Central Europe, which has always been the march. The flatlands between Western Europe and Russia has been a battlefield, has been a killing field for a century. So I think, yes, we are involved. We are involved with Western Europe. The biggest question I keep returning to this, Jay, is what's going to happen this November? Are we going to put a buffoon with no knowledge or understanding of human affairs from the human heart all the way up to the global elites in charge? And we're going to be doing damage control for the next four years? Or are we going to be a player in the world? Because all that is what Russia needs is four years to wage a huge propaganda campaign and develop his hypersonic missiles to advance his vision of undermining the United States' currency and the United States' influence in the world. But, Gene, Trump has said, and he doubled down again today, that he is not going to support Ukraine, that he is not going to support NATO. And on day one, if he wins or somehow takes office, on day one, he's going to cut off that support completely. There won't be anything. So we already kind of know the chances are pretty good that the US is going to back out of this and go into isolation mode. That's got to affect things that can't help Ukraine at all. It sounds like a Trumpist. Trump-er is the term, by the way. Well, whatever the term is, but it's bad enough as a Trump-er or a Trump-ist. No statement has been so insulting to me for a long time, is that? It sounded... I don't mind if you call me pessimistic, but don't call me a Trump-er. So Gene, Gene, I just want to know what that's got to affect the current status quo. If Trump is elected, if Trump gets into office and pulls all the support, are we still at the top of the heap? Trump is acting today as a co-president, and the media is collaborating with him. Major columnists within the media are calling the media on this, if you read a number of major columnists. So they're getting wise to the fact that the media is behind Trump. And so, yes, we are facing that, and Europe is concerned. Europe already is concerned that it's going to have to work up so many for Ukraine, because, and this is, of course, what Trump would like. He'd like to see Europe supporting Ukraine, and the United States out of it so we can satisfy his isolationist movement and consolidate his personal power and make the United States his own special little heath dump. And we're fighting more on two fronts right now, domestically and also in Europe. Absolutely. Tim, yes? To tag on to Gene's comments, the media has portrayed a private citizen to make statements recently that strikes fear in the hearts and minds of European leaders, fearing the worst that the United States would pull out of NATO. What the media is not reporting is something I said just before the show. And in the Defense Renewal Act, past December 14, 2023, a bill sent by Senator Mark Rubio and Tim Kaine, this bill has passed, and it basically says, no president shall withdraw from NATO unless it has two-thirds support of the Senate. How easy or how difficult it is to get two-thirds of a vote. That's regardless. I think, you know, there's some other point in it, in the discussion. Somehow, you create this impression that nothing is happening in Europe. I think the impact of this threat of Trump getting into the White House, which I still do not believe will happen, I think there is a majority of somewhat more rational Americans than people give the U.S. credit for at this point. But I mean the impact on this discussion in the United States and Trump's statement in Europe is very encouraging in terms of European's understanding, the political class in Europe is understanding that they have to do more in order to unify as an emerging European republic. I mean, that project is still part of the future of the European Union. It's not simply an international organization, it is really a republic in the making. And I think in that regard, whether Trump becomes now president or not, the discussion in the U.S. has reinforced this trend in a way that people could not imagine before, not only because Sweden and Finland wanted to join NATO, no, it has the list of countries that still want to join the European Union has been growing. From your lips to God's ears, Manfred, I really hope that comes true. And that is the optimistic side of me, anyway. Jean, I want to drill down on something that I guess both you and Manfred raised, especially Manfred, if we have peace negotiations here, some kind of settlement, whether the U.S. is active in that or certainly Europe would be active in that. And Putin has said, although I don't know if we should believe him, that he wants to have peace negotiations. What is it going to look like? What's the carve-up? How do you reverse the crime and crimea? And doesn't Ukraine need crimea to sell its agricultural products to Africa? There's a lot of moving parts in any settlement negotiation. What's the best case? What's the worst case? And what's the most likely case? And you're asking me to predict. Doing that. I have a sense of where we're heading now. I can't tell you where we'd be heading if Europe weighed in heavily, for example, and Trump was not elected. That's the best case scenario in which we would continue to fund Ukraine. Ukraine would freshen up in terms of supplies and somehow find the manpower to do what it is capable of doing. And it's much more capable than just holding a line, which is what Russia's doing in a bunch of trenches. I mean, Ukraine really is the more innovative actor here and has the more sophisticated advice available. So that's the best case scenario that Ukraine could push back and it could dominate in negotiations to get the best possible thing. They said they want crimea. That's a big take. Maybe they could. Maybe they couldn't. That's the best case. I don't think they're going to get Donetsk and Luhansk. Okay, so let's, they're dev territories anyway, unfortunately. In terms of a worst case scenario, people could step up to the plate much too late. The manpower could fail. Russia could activate more of its innovative missiles against Ukraine. Supplies would falter. Manpower would falter. And Ukraine would not give up. But Ukraine would be in a defensive mode against a powerful enemy. And Europe would be cowering. I don't think that's going to happen either because of Poland and the Baltics. There is a history here. They had the largest empire in Europe and they were head on with the Soviet, went up the Soviet Union, but Russia at the time. And Ukraine is at this point aligned again with Poland and the Baltics. And if Ukraine were to fall, I believe Russia's next take would be the Baltics because they threaten Konigsberg, they threaten the warm water port on the Baltic Ocean. And I don't think Russia would would rest until it dominated the Baltics and Poland again. So I don't think that's going to happen either. The most likely case is at this point, from what I can see, even if Trump wins, that Europe will step up to the plate and Ukraine will continue to resist. And there will, finally, the attrition will get to Putin. It's getting to him already. And there will be a settlement based on what we see right now and what existed before. You may say that historians don't like to predict, but wow, that's pretty heavy. That sounds like prediction to me, Gene. I'm sorry. I don't own it. Well, you're not so reluctant to predict though, Tim. What's your prediction? I love to predict. You know, I think the supply chain gets restored. Manpower is a critical issue. And, you know, when you have a manpower issue, let's not forget that throughout history, some nations have relied on the concept of paid mercenaries. And I could think of a whole bunch of mega red gun enthusiasts that might just like to call or answer the call to muster and find themselves in Ukraine. Who knows? But you could always use mercenaries if you have to. So, Manfred, you know, one of the things that we really should drill down on, and your specialty would be, your expertise would be helpful on this, is exactly politically what is going on in Russia. You know, perhaps Putin is coming to the end of his rope, too. How far down is Putin? How far down Putin's rope is Putin? And is he really going to outlast Ukraine? It's a war of a Christian, as Gene says, both ways. How much trouble is Putin in? Well, I think he will outlast Biden, even though, interestingly enough, the most recent statement he made about Trump becoming president again, he prefers Biden in the White House because he's more rational than Trump. I mean, this is now Putin talking about Trump and Biden. But one point about your prediction about Crimea. I mean, the Ukraine doesn't really need Crimea in order to conduct the rain traffic to Africa and other parts of the world. I mean, when you are standing in Odessa and looking down at the Black Sea, all of the cranes that you have there, in front of you, are in Odessa. They are not in the Crimea. So the whole food production that comes from the Crimea and goes into the world does not need Crimea. So for that reason, I mean, remember, Crimea was handed back or handed to the Ukraine by Khrushchev after the death of Stalin. And Khrushchev was not a Ukrainian, but he was Russian-born, but he was the chairman of the Ukrainian Communist Party for almost 30 years. And for some strange reason, he thought he had to hand it, give it as a gift to the Ukraine. And Brezhnev did not change that. Brezhnev was also not Ukrainian. He was Russian. But you have to also remember Putin's crazy argument when he launched his invasion in 2020 was that the Ukraine has been part of Russia for forever. And he blamed Lenin for making, of creating the Ukraine. Now, Lenin did not create the Ukraine. Lenin was against Stalin's plan to have a unified socialist republic. But the USSR, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, in a way, constituted these 15 independent or semi-independent republics that later in the 1990s then went independent as, or many, both of them as nation states. So the Ukraine existed within the USSR as an independent republic like the others, like Russia itself. In a way, you could say Lenin created Russia by creating the USSR. So in a way, it was the defeat of the czarist Russia that Lenin set into being against the will of Stalin. But Stalin didn't succeed. Can we go back to the question of how Putin is doing, whether he's losing ground politically in Russia? Look, we don't know enough about what is going on in Russia itself. But from all of the reports that one can read about the situation is, his support is not growing. I mean, he is, I wouldn't say he's in his trouble. His position is troubled. But he is, I mean, the elections will not, which will take place soon, the presidential election, they will not give us any indication of that. He will get maybe 80% because all of the potential candidates are in prison or out of the country. I guess you're saying that Navalny is not likely to win. Yes, it would be nice if he would. But I think we're out of time. So let's go around. It was a stupid decision of Navalny, you know, to leave Berlin and should have stayed in Germany. Silly fellow. So let's go around for the final comments. Jean, I'm interested to hear how you integrate all of this. I think that, again, we are engaged in a new type of warfare with the coalitions and parties reassembling themselves. Again, we are living through a year of many elections that are going to determine the course of the next several years. So we have to wait until those elections are in, the results are in, before we can really get a handle on what the future will be. Most importantly is the election here in the United States. The media is doing a terrible job of covering the campaigns today. It's supposedly even handed, but any oxygen you give to Trump is a bad idea right now. So let's just say worst case scenario, or likely scenario, even that Trump gets in for another four years. That takes us out of the equation in terms of being an effective member of the coalition of Europe and the West. And it gives a lot of oxygen back to Putin. We're sort of in a nervous state right now waiting with bated breath. Biden seems to have backed off from Zelensky. We don't know what's going on behind the scenes. Biden does not want a war with anybody. And he will take a negotiation over a war anytime. I presume the negotiation is going on now. I presume Putin knows that and wants Biden to stay in office so we can continue the negotiation, give the United States a big leaf and get what Russia wants. That's what I suspect. Would it be greater if Netanyahu got together with Zelensky? That would be a different kind of negotiation. What are your thoughts? What's the likelihood that the United States of America will provide support in weapons and money to Ukraine? Despite negative headlines in the news, I think the United States fulfills his commitment that we made from the outset of this war. We fulfill that commitment and the money will come through, at least for $54 billion after that, hard to say. But I agree with Gene that we're going to have to wait until the American presidential election to take place. Putin's waiting to see who's going to be the next president. And I suspect he's probably like to see a negotiation too, and not to predict, but maybe to predict that the borders you see today are probably the borders that would end up in the negotiation as a final settlement. And one last question to you, Manfred, is what's the likelihood that the EU will actually come up with the... Tim referred to the $54 billion. Tim, I think you were thinking of the EU commitment rather than the... Yes, I'm sorry. They did the EU number. So Manfred, what's the likelihood in your view that the EU and the NATO countries in the EU will come up with $54 billion out of its own pocket, out of their own pockets? I mean, it's absolutely solid. It's a promise that has been made, and they will deliver. Now, what is... You are speaking about elections, and you are typically focused simply on the United States, but you have the elections in June to the European Parliament. And they will be very, very important in order to find out whether the right wing has any chances in Europe. Now, I'm very happy about what happened in Germany two weeks ago, when you had millions of people demonstrating against the right the AFD in German cities, from Hamburg to Munich, from Berlin to Frankfurt, an absolutely exceptional outpouring of civil society against the right wing. And remember, Germany is a very ethnically diverse country at this point. You have lots of not only Muslims living, 4 million Muslims living in Germany, but you have a lot, I think, close to 2 million Ukrainian refugees also. And these refugees are a reminder, not only in Germany, but in Poland, in other European countries, of what may happen to them. Their daily reminder of the dangers that Putin's Russia is really threatening them with. So in that sense, Europe is in a different situation than the United States. In that case, I appreciate that, and we're about out of time. I just want to add one thought. One thing is clear from all this discussion is that we are in a state of change and nervousness, as you said, Jean, and the change may be going faster than we think, changing in the EU, changing in NATO, changing in the US, although I have my expectations and hopes for that, and changing even in Russia. The world is in a state of change more than I can remember it ever being. So anyway, well, thank you all for this discussion. Jean Rosenfeld, Manfred Hennigstern, and our co-host, Tim Hapichela, aloha.