 Hi, my name is Leon road currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comma welcome to this week's applying demand forex technical analysis If you're new welcome, and if you're returning welcome back, I just want to say that the the forex pairs are time stamped in the description box below also with a company that charts and We'll get into the fundamentals and sentiment before we get into the technicals So this week ahead trading economics We got the final estimate of US fourth quarter GDP growth Which will keenly be watched alongside the foreign trade personal income and outlays housing data and current account like pretty say obviously GDP is Definitely important Elsewhere important releases include UK final fourth quarter GDP growth Germany consumer and business morale inflation retail trade and unemployment I think when it comes to Britain and and Europe I don't think the data is really going to be watched so much It's going to be all pretty much sentiment based and based on Brexit Is there going to be an extension or is they're going to you know to to article 50 or You know what's going to happen with the parliamentary vote next week as well So I think that's pretty much what's on the cards Data-dependent I doubt that data is really going to move the markets We've got Japanese industrial output retail sales in jobless rates and China NBS PMI so I think out of these the main ones are going to be the GDP growth for the US and Really just the Brexit sentiment and seeing what happens and if you want to understand about Fundamentals and risk sentiment have a a course fundamental analysis course the link is in the description box below takes you to this page and Basically, I go over why a fundamental analysis GDP interest rates inflation will also give you a fundamental analysis spreadsheet where I give my fundamental bias on the pairs that I'm buying or Selling this does not include risk sentiment So for example this week I took a trade I bought the Japanese yen because there was risk off sentiment regarding you know again Brexit and In Europe just because I'm bearish here from a fundamental perspective doesn't mean I won't buy the Japanese yen if there is risk off Coming into the market and that's all explained in the course so getting on to the technicals now We start off on the Dow Jones dollar index and Dow Jones dollar index this week or say last week we had The FOMC minutes the Fed was quite dovish which did Cause a bit of I suppose downward pressure you can call it downward pressure on the Dow on the dollar and the Dow Jones dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against the Euro yen and British Pound and I think the Australian dollar as well and What we had this week was pretty much this waited for the news To come out. I think that was Wednesday 20th of March and then Immediately kind of went back up and then really kind of just went sideways From really the beginning of the week when you think about it. So we were at 12 1 9 5 and it ended the week 12 1 9 0 so Had it up and down movement fed is dovish on holding interest rates When it comes to you know hiking taking hikes off the table anyway, so they're not looking to hike Probably any time this year. Whereas previously. They said that they would be hiking. I think it was twice anyway But that was coming if you understand interest rates and inflation in the GDP cycle You know, I was saying to you know the traders that I mentor that that's pretty much what was gonna happen So Wasn't really a surprise I think a lot of people ended up getting short and end up getting caught in their positions though because even though the the Fed is dovish when you think about the risk sentiment and the dollar is still the Really the currency to buy when it you know when you compare it from a GDP and interest rate Perspective and inflation perspective is still the best currency to buy so even though you get you know sell-offs In the dollar just look at that as buying opportunities, which is basically what you know, I did this week on The euro dollar as well end up getting a nicer buying opportunity. I'm still in that trade, but I'll go over that later. So Dollar basically weakness then bit of strength and now we're back to where we are. So what are we looking at for this week? Probably depends on obviously your bias, but if you're looking at Selling the dollar then you're waiting for obviously trade price to come up into any of you know, these These supply zones if you're looking to buy the dollar I think we've spiked through that Sorry, excuse me we've gone through that that that trend line support and I don't think it's necessarily more I would probably say we've touched this level Once twice is okay So if prices do come back down to here probably the lower end then look for obviously some some Buying to come in and then that will add to the confluence of buying the dollar as this is the Dow Jones dollar index So it's looking for confluence really when we take any dollar Trades, so if it starts to sell off when it comes up to supply and you can pretty much look to sell on the dollar Yeah, no dollar Swiss dollar CAD, etc. And if we're looking down here, obviously looking to buy looking for any bullish price action To add to the confluence obviously the better level would be down here But for now, I probably think that the dollars probably Depends on what happens with GDP obviously, but if GDP comes out as expected then again The dollar is still the number one currency in my opinion To buy even if price doesn't necessarily reflect that in the short term, right? So if you get a sell-off doesn't really matter for me. I'll still be a buyer And again, it the dead just depends on obviously some data and obviously sentiment as well Euro sentiment and pound sentiment. So now moving on to the Dollar yen and The dollar yen this week again risk off sentiment came in so we came pushed back up to the supply zone risk off sentiment The yen is a beneficiary of risk off sentiment and then we have obviously prices fall away So if you go to the charts You'll be able to see obviously what's happened And let's see if we can clean up the chart a little bit so that can come off that can come off and That's gonna be Supply zone use that as supply You're gonna take off this horizontal support as well So what you're looking for if you're looking to get short on this currency pair You're waiting for a pullback if you're looking to get long matter of facts now Maybe a decent time, but you'd have to put your weight for risk on to come back into the market Right, so you may get a lower time frame trades if you zoom down into the you know The four hour which is my time frame if you go down even lower to maybe the one hour two hour 30 minute depending on what time frame you do trade. This is where we look for trades Personally, I'm not too keen on this currency pair simply because of risk off at the moment and the lead up to Brexit, but if you are looking to sell this currency pair need when price to kind of pull back into this level and then Sell there if you do continue to get risk off come into the market, then he's gonna be the next area is potentially to buy Once risk Price come here and then maybe some risk off sentiment But if we do get any surprises and shocks with Brexit Then you can probably expect the the yen to rally Moving on to the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss again The Swiss being a safe haven currency We get obviously some some a bearish price action against the the dollar I'm bullish on this on this currency pair But not just yet need for risk to come back on before I look for any type of buy trades Let's look at the price chart and see What's on offer? So we can delete probably This demand zone here Probably expect prices to you know come down a bit more risk off sentiment being in the market this week Of course you could take a cheeky little trade if you wanted to it's at a decent level And see what happens, but I wouldn't risk You know full position sizes might be like a quarter position or even a half position But a full position when risk is off This currency pair isn't necessarily the smartest thing to do You know not a full position anyway, but um, yeah So I've went for price to really come down to this area here or this area here before looking to get long from a Supply perspective. We do have some hidden supply right here so If you're looking for a pullback to get short then There is your There are your options Moving on to the dollar CAD the dollar CAD The US dollar gaining his strength the US dollar is Can be a risk of currency especially against the commodity type currencies like the CAD the New Zealand dollar as well as the The Australian dollar, but when it comes to you know safe haven assets like the yen and the Swiss then it doesn't perform as well So this week there really wasn't any for me anyway any trading opportunities Pretty much prices went sideways for a little bit and then there were no way up But they haven't really produced a really strong area of demand yet and it's coming up into this supply zone So if we're looking at the charts I mean, this is demand this is demand Right, but for this to be a really strong Area of demand it would really have to make A higher high It's tradeable if prices do come back down as prices have moved about you know 100 100 or so pips over a hundred pips. So it is tradeable. I will put this level here But just keep in mind that it's not The strongest level of demand until it makes higher highs, right? We do did have this bit of a push-up So we need to break past this level before this becomes a strong Whatever consider a strong level of demand if prices do come up to the supply zone And you want to get short and you would the dollar you want to buy the Canadian dollar Then this is going to be the first area to look for buy trades If not, then we've got you know this area all the way up here to look for Sell trades and I say buy trades. I'm talking about buy trades for the Canadian dollar moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and New Zealand dollars that's been performing quite well. It's good fundamentally Probably second or third on on on the list Again the dovish sentiment with the The US dollar did push Prices higher as well as expected GDP. I think it was 0.6 a month for month for the New Zealand dollar So it's doing quite well from an economic perspective So Yeah, but again dollar strength coming into the market now is this a reversal Is this profit taking not too sure when you've got to compete in strong currencies? You're putting more likely to get what is known as a ranging market To well a strong versus a weak currency, you'll get a trending market. So Two strong currencies, this is a bit don't know whether this is gonna Reverse but you never know the dollar being number one at the moment Anything can happen, but if you are looking to get short Then Now is pretty much the opportunity if you trade, you know the daily time frame chart If you're looking at a lower time frame, you're pretty be looking for prices to kind of come back up You know to this level. I don't know some sort of double top Personally probably a bit higher if I was to ever get short I want to get you know short probably the market has the 6950 level and Maybe if there was some sort of stop-hunt around here as well. I might look to get short As far as long trades goes what else have we got here any new trades? Yeah, so we've got say new trades, but new zones. We've got some hidden demand there right there sorry, I'm a delete that and So if prices do come back down to this level here, you've got a decent buy trade prices making higher highs higher lows and then obviously Prices come back into the higher low Then this is where you want to be looking to buy the new Zealand dollar if not then You're buying a new Zealand dollar down in this confluence area here where you've got Yeah, a bit of confluence Not fantastic, but it's It's there nevertheless Let me draw it Got some Some confluence there with horizontal support and diagonal support so Moving on to the pound dollar the pound dollar this week Think again, it's the pound has been rallying on Brexit sentiment the euro peon union agreeing an extension But they require MPs to pass Passed a bill in Theresa May's bill in in the vote next week so with the extension and Probability of you know a no-deal Brexit again not being on the table or if it's on the table then it's less likely the pound will always rally as long as there's a possibility of You know the UK staying in Europe, but if the what I would say is that if if if if the vote if MPs vote and They don't vote on Theresa May's deal You're probably gonna get a negative Reaction don't like this ever that to predict, but that's what I probably would I Would say But there's an extension anyway, so let's see what happens But I would probably say that that would cause a negative reaction and probably you know break through these Demand zone this demand zone has been touched once twice already. So We've with demand zones and let's go to pound dollar With demand zones the more times they touch is the less reliable they are and more likely they are to break So if you touched once twice Then this could also be you know Breakthrough we've also touched this trend line once twice. This is the third time as well. So From us from a support and demand zone perspective right and demand being there It looks potentially ready to break again. That's only from the technical perspective from a supply perspective You've got you know lower highs lower lows being made again if we get Theresa May's deal You know it gets voted in and the European Union get what they want then you will probably have a very sizable move to the upside Based off of basically just a short-term sentiment, but once the dust settles The question you have to ask yourself is is the pound really the currency to buy against the dollar Personally, I don't really think so, but you definitely see a rally on sentiment on the pound But again, my bias is to short this pair But right now we're in a bit of no man's land. So again, I'll probably you know hold fire on this until You know the the MPs vote So moving on to the euro dollar and Euro dollar this week managed to get Short on this currency pair. I think everybody was waiting for This level here This level right here on a lower time frame Managed to get in up here And then basically saw an entry and trade it actually back down Still in this trade and the reason why again was pretty much even though the Fed was dovish on their assessment of interest rates, you've got bigger problems in Europe. So You know, it's it's pretty much a no-brainer type trade I don't mind price, you know coming up all the way and as a tip as well When you see prices come up into a level With no pullback. So you've had one two three four five six seven eight nine days, right? And you've only had one Day where you've had a negative day to a negative but a bearish day potentially profit-taking But overall this price action is straight up for over a week, right? You have to expect some sort of pullback. So look at this You had you know one two three four five six seven Bearish days and look at the price action and then you have to expect some sort of pullback We're back to where we don't know but the longer prices Go on is the more you have to expect the pullback prices pretty much touched this top of this Supply zone here the one point one Four level so once I've got an entry on the four hour it was It was pretty much a done deal for me to get short So let's look at that trade I'm gonna delete this for now can delete this delete this as well I'm gonna put this demand zone here because we haven't Cleared it yet Kind of just spiked it But the trade really was when prices came up into this area here four hour time frame chart something called the two candle swing and This was pretty much the entry stop about five pips above the high no need for a for two candle swing is no need really for a a big stop and currently up The was at one point seven six to one at the moment or thereabouts In fact matter of fact, I think I've got a better entry than that because as price pulled back That's when I actually entered. I think it was the one point one four 04 level it was around here so decent entry to the downside looking to take profits probably at the bottom of this range But I may hold as well depending on obviously what happens in With Brexit because if again, we have any kind of shocks We could see prices really kind of plummet, you know down towards this one point one 00 level which represent a decent risk reward So, you know pretty much all eyes on Europe this week and The next trade which I also got into was the euro yen euro yen This was a nice trade. This was in fact a nicer Four five to one type trade at the moment. So prices came up Into this level again. Look at the way price is actually Approaches level so you got a big move down into the demand zone and then you've got one two three four five six seven eight Days with no pullback and then the ninth day. This is where we've been watching this zone in the with the members and We pretty much just entered right here. I'll show you the entry on the euro yen It's a euro yen It's nice Outside candle also known what I call a capture paying candle I think this pair I did do Bit bigger stop I think it was about 10 pips above So again This was at the moment we're up 4.2 7 2 1 at the moment and if risk continues to be off Then you probably expecting the Japanese yen to strengthen uncertainty in the market and It looks like a very decent trade at the moment So again, look at the price action supplier zone This is also a retracement CPR zone for those of you that have taken the CPR course as well Which I'm not gonna really have to go into but we had lots of confluence lots of confluence from a from a sentiment perspective fundamental perspective the yen has been doing okay and Went once sentiment kicked in you know It was pretty much game over for the for the euro technically. I like this as well And it was a good Trade at the moment so right now you could look for some buy trades But probably Again, you'd have to wait for risk on to come back in if the euro Does agree to deal with the UK. You can probably expect the euro to definitely rally If you're looking for a sell trade pretty the higher End of this of this supplier zone It's pretty the best trade that you can that you can probably takes a fresher level of supply That's about it though for now moving on to the Aussie dollar and the Aussie dollar zoom in a little bit Last week there was a bit of a sell-off at that supply zone and then we had some dovish comments obviously from the Fed and then We ended up selling off again with the US dollar probably more benefiting from a risk-off environment, then the Australian dollar you're starting to see the This the sell-off from this supply zone from this zero point seven one six level So if you go to the charts, let's Get rid of that and I think I'm going to leave everything as it is No, actually, I'm not I'll put that There so you could look for Buying opportunity at the moment If you want to put the extend this Support and resistance zone up towards there in confidence with demand Demand zone so that would be where you'd be looking for any kind of Buy trades at the moment, but I think in a risk-off environment the dollar the US dollar does do better. So Don't know whether you'd want to get involved in that if you are Looking to put a short this currency pair Then you'd be looking for price to really come back up to this fresher area of supply up here or Further higher if you are looking to buy and that level does doesn't hold as far as this level here It's price then you're looking at probably this area of Support within this larger demand zone so Last pair is going to be the Australian dollar Japanese yen and Again, I like to watch this pair. Let's trade this pair as well, but the risk-off sentiment If you're looking at trying to gauge risk offer risk-on sentiment This is the pair to watch because if it's risk on Australian dollar will do well It's risk off the Japanese yen will do well so you can see basically what's happened this week and We've touched this demand zone several times, you know, we've got move up one two coming down into the zone now I don't expect this level to hold Might get a pullback and put it do something like that, but in general if again risk risk being off Pretty looking at, you know any kind of sell trades So if you're looking to sell Then I would probably Put a supply zone right there Lower highs lower lows being made Supply zone right there And then wait for a pullback into that area there all that higher supply zone before looking to get short See the price to come up here and then look for a short trade if you're looking for a long You might probably want to wait for price to come down to this further 75 80 90 76 round number before looking at any buy trades But again just to ensure that risk is on and ensuring risk is on You know look for confluences in the stock market as well, right the stock market indices like the S&P 500 You know will tell you to tell you if risk is on or risk is off and also, you know the bond market as well US Treasury bonds and things like gold as well and in silver as their safe haven assets, so That brings us to the end of this week's analysis Please don't forget to like subscribe and share if you enjoy the analysis any questions you have Just put them in the description box below if you're watching this on YouTube or you can email me at info at trading 180.com I hope you have a great trading week and guys take care