 The worst case scenario is we close below 278. 278 will be the 50-day moving average. We close below 278. Again, you don't have to look far, right? And this is kind of the first kind of step to being a technical analysis trader. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of theAxisToTrader.com. Weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Before we get started and a lot of things have changed since our Wednesday broadcast, I want to wish everybody a very happy and healthy Christmas. Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, a happy New Year, health and happiness to all. Again, at the end of the day, everybody's trying to provide for their family, but our health and our happiness is obviously the most important thing. And without it, we absolutely have nothing. So if you are new to the channel, again, we do broadcast Monday through Wednesday. Thursday night, I have off to kind of recharge my brain for Friday's session and then there's a recording on the weekend. If you kindly so can do so continue and we appreciate it, support the channel. Be kindly enough to click a like and if you are new, subscribe to the channel and so you can get updated when we are uploaded. So let's talk about it. So last time we spoke was Wednesday's broadcast, right? Wednesday's broadcast, we talked about and not only just Wednesday, we continue to talk about how going into the two big events for this past week, we had the CPI number that was incredibly volatile and we also had the Fed minister who promptly followed the next day. And the one thing if you've been watching this broadcast just in the last month, that you don't have to go back longer, we've noticed one thing, ever since that last CPI number, every major event after has been kind of depleting the action of depleting the integrity of that initial move over and over again. So we had the CPI move, the initial CPI move from November, we rallied, we sold it off to the bottom of the range. Then Powell came, talked about basically the same thing, they always talk about the language has not changed and it kind of will segue into the Fed minister in a few minutes, but we had that big 4.4% rally in the queues only to get faded. Again, only to get faded again. So this was something, once is okay, twist is a coincidence, now the third and the fourth time, we're already on to it. We wanna see if the trend continues and we had the CPI number for December. If you guys remember a massive 30 second move in the futures, we challenged the top of the range of the candle and guess what, just like everything else that happened for the last CPI number, for the last Powell testimony, we faded again. So here came the Fed minutes and if you guys remember, I basically just said, listen, the bulls have one bullet left. Okay, they keep on no matter what they're saying, they're keeping on just doing the same thing. They're gapping into these events and then they're selling them pretty aggressively and unless Powell said something really riveting or you maybe even use the word 25 basis points at some point, I think everybody really understood that the 50 basis points was just par for the course. We knew what was coming out. We knew the language that was gonna be used, right? We're watching inflation closely. We're trying to tame inflation closely. We're gonna do everything in our power to make sure we curb inflation, yada, yada, yada. They didn't do anything that was surprised the market. And by the time the CPI fade happened on Tuesday, you had the Fed come out on Wednesday and got faded more and the big line in the sand was what we talked about in the beginning of the week, right? If we got down to the bottom of the range, the do or die scenario. I think it was only two or three videos ago. If you can check it, you'll kind of see or Kyler will kind of put a clip on it. We talked about the importance of the 278 level. The 278 level was the 50 day moving average. It's a very, very big area. This is kind of a preview of what happens to come of who controls the 50 day moving average. And you can clearly see kind of going back in just 2022. I think we spent, I would say about 70, 80% below the 50 day moving average in 2022. And you can kind of see it, just kind of going back, let's see here, kind of going back to here. So here's 2022. We started January, right? January 5th was the first, I believe it was the first trading day in 2022. Everybody see that light blue line? If you're a brand new viewer to the channel, the 50 day moving average, this is what the light blue line is. So anything deemed over the 50 day moving average as a general, as a mass conversational piece is considered bullish. And anything that's under the 50 day moving average is considered bearish. Again, nothing goes straight down. The market was never gonna go straight down, just like the market over the 50 day moving average doesn't go straight up. But it gives you a general trend. It gives you a general narrative that should be playing out. As you can see here from the start of 2022, once we lost that light blue line, which was the 50 day moving average, we had a sell-off from January, right? And again, there was definitely pockets of strength in between that, but we had sell-offs going from January the 5th, all the way up to, let's see, January, February, March, March the 21st. So we're talking about nearly, two and a half, three months worth of downward action underneath the 50 day moving average. And you can see what happened, right? Just as a visual, before you can get dive deep into the world of advanced technical analysis, you have to kind of use the eyeball test to kind of see the most basic forms. And once we reclaim back the 50 day moving average, it started a one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 days above the 50 day, but they lost it again, right? You see that? They lost it again. And guess what happened again? Again, it started a nasty cycle, right? It started a cycle going from April the 11th, all the way, right? You can see how much downward pressure we've had all the way to right around here, right? So we went from April the 11th to July the 18th, and the bulls then reclaimed, right? Reclaimed the 50 day, again, below bearish, above bullish, and look what happened, right? We had a little bit of a rally. We had a nice little rally here for the next month and a half. And guess what happens when we lost the 50 day, right? Here's the 50 day again, right? Keep this, you know, just again, sometimes the visual is the basic thing to kind of let you go of your reasoning or your bias. So once we lost the 50 day moving average again, we lost it back on August, let's see, June, July, August the 29th, look what started again, right? We started again, another selling cycle, right? Another selling cycle all the way to, right? The last CPI, right? Check this out, the last CPI, right? First close over the 50 day moving average. So we had another four months worth of selling. And then finally, we tried to consolidate for about a month. And here is where we were as of Thursday, right? First close below the 50 day moving average. Yesterday followed through. So again, you don't have to be, you know, a 30 year veteran, 50 year veteran of chart analysis, right? If you go through your eyeball test, you can see what generally happens when we are above the 50 day moving average, it's bullish and we get below the 50 day moving average. Well, you kind of know where I'm getting at here. So Wednesday, excuse me, Thursday, we closed below the 50 day moving average, the first close Friday was yesterday, we'll get the individual pivots in a second. We followed through and now the key is what happens next, right? For the bulls to maintain any type of daylight, right? Or daylight or hope springs eternal for the next year, they desperately need to reclaim the 50 day, right? The 50 day right now is 278. Again, you'll see kind of the clippings of what Kyler will post, or it already did post when you're watching this video, why important that's 278 line was. So the bull's job going into this week is to reclaim back the 278. They can reclaim the 278 back, then yeah, everything is fine. I think we'll start grinding back higher. But the longer the bulls, excuse me, the longer the bears build the base below the 50 day moving average, again, there's a high probability we start retracing and start tracing very aggressively. Like again, it's not gonna be every single day. There's always dead cat bounces, nothing goes straight up, nothing goes straight down, but the general thesis is again, over the 50 day bullish under the 50 day bearish. Now again, for all you swing traders are gonna turn around and say, well, what's the difference? I'll just buy more. That's great. That's not for this channel, right? That's not for this channel. Again, if a zebra has a conversation with a Thuribur, they kind of look alike, but they're two different conversations, right? A trader and investor are two different things. Do I think Amazon is gonna be at $150 10 years from now? Absolutely. Do I think Amazon's gonna be $150 tomorrow? Not so much. And that's the whole point of this channel. We're trying to get everybody from the active trading community ready for the next day, not what's gonna happen or opinion what's gonna happen for five, 10 years from now. So yes, do I think Apple is gonna be at 210 years? Yes, we'll get to Apple in a second. Phenomenal move last few days. Do I think Tesla might be at 201 day or might be at 50? Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. But it's not gonna happen tomorrow. So the most important part is as active traders, again, like we say every single day, we kind of investigate the landscape, right? Investigate the data, see exactly where the market tells us the best value is and if that value gets confirmed the next day, that's great, usually things will follow through. If not, guess what? We're wrong in our thesis, but again, being wrong theoretically, being wrong financially, two different things. It's okay to be wrong, right? Have an opinion and let that opinion confirm, but the data is the data. And as you can see here, just going back to 2022, what happens when you lose the 50 day moving average? You usually will see a good amount of selling to follow through. And again, the longer we build the base, this is why it's so crucial for the bulls to put up a fight, just don't lay down and die. The longer we build that base below 278, the higher probability we're gonna see the next demand and the next demand zone is all the way here to 260. So they better to start defending. They better start what kind of waking up Monday Tuesday and start reclaiming back to 278 level or the longer we build the base or the longer, as I use the word build, that's kind of the whole point of the PS60 theory, the longer the bears continue to build below that 278 level, what's gonna happen is it's going to be a domino effect and everything, not only in the NASDAQ 100 names, gonna start building below the 50 day moving average. It's gonna start dragging everything as well. As you can see here on the IWM, right? On the IWM, it did the same thing, right? Here was the first close below the 50 day moving average on Thursday, right? Look what happened on Friday. On Friday, it followed through. Spies, right? This is just not to technology or speculations names. Spies lost the 386, they lost the 50 day moving average. So for the bulls to put up a fight, they have to reclaim. Again, this isn't a conversation of subjectivity, that the bulls have to reclaim back to 50 day moving average or what's gonna happen. If you look at what happened day two on the Qs, day two on the IWM, right? They reclaimed down. So for the bulls, they need to reclaim the 386 level. For the bears, they just need to keep on building below this 386 for the next potential move down. And you'll see a whole bunch of names are starting to, if they haven't done so already, losing the 50 day moving average and really starting to get hit. I mean, look at names, for example, like Apple. Apple is definitely one of the definitely bigger trades of the week. Apple lost a major, major macro channel that went all the way back to about three weeks from now. It's a big channel here, but more important here, Apple is getting down, right? Apple is getting down to the bottom of the range here, right? You see this whole 34 area, right? 134, that was the October lows. You see Friday's lows, right? That 134 level. If Apple starts confirming down this 134 level, it should get to 132. And if it starts losing 132, it has room down. I mean, look at Qualcomm, for example, another stock that lost the 50 day moving average, right? Thursday, it lost the 50 day moving average. Friday confirmed it went lower. I mean, there's so many names. If you go through the NASDAQ 100 names, AMD, same thing. AMD, and we'll get to the Pivots in a second, but look what happened to AMD. Close Thursday on the 50 day moving average. Friday it took it out and it started going lower. So that's kind of the thesis, guys. The longer we continue to build below the 50 day moving average, you're gonna see lower prices. So again, don't shoot the messenger, okay? I don't care if you're an investor, trader, whatever the case may be. We've went through this road before, right? We've gone through this road before. If you go through videos just in the last year, what happens when you lose the 50 day moving average, you'll kind of understand what possibly could happen next, okay? I don't care how much you love your position. If your position starts falling, especially if you're an investor, if your position starts falling below the 50 day moving average, well, again, here's my opinion. Here's the facts in front of you. Do with that information what you want. Again, by you telling me, turn around and say, well, I'm gonna hold it anyway for five years. God bless, you don't need to tell me that. Just hold it, right? You don't need to tell me. I'm telling you what I think is gonna happen. As long as we start building below the 50 day moving average, and if you wanna hold it, God bless, who am I to tell you? It's your dime, your dance floor, do what you want. But again, be prepared, right? Be prepared. Right now we're in early stages, only day two below the 50 day moving average on the Qs and the IWM, only day one on the spies. So you have time to kind of put yourself in a position of strength because again, we're just forming this formation, right? We're just forming this base underneath the 50. And again, who knows, maybe you get lucky and the Bulls have a massive rally on Monday or Tuesday ahead of Christmas, the Santa Claus rally when we reclaim back the 50 day moving average. That's fantastic, right? Again, for us, it doesn't make a difference. Long short, as long as there's a trend, as long as there's a range, we're gonna be okay. So obviously going forward into the week, we start the day below the 50 days, so the value, at least for me, at the start of the week is to the downside and we will reassess like we do after each trading day. So let's talk about Friday's action. Pretty aggressive stuff, not everything died yet, but pretty aggressive stuff here. Google, not a big move yet, 90 if it builds below can flush, went down like 50 cents and came back up into the 90s. I still like it if it starts confirming down Friday's action, but not a big move yet. Amazon was putting up a fight, right? If you look at the formation on Amazon, Amazon was putting up a fight. So the period here was this 87, 40s, in this thing for like three hours, four hours, Jesus, it went down like 40, 50 cents and went back up 40, 50 cents and went back down like 80 cents and ultimately I said, you know what? It's getting a little late in the day, it's holding up the range. Let me flatten out this thing. Let me watch this thing for Monday, but again, if it loses its Bollinger Band guys, right? Amazon loses its Bollinger Band. It should get down to this macro level low and if it loses macro level low, again just go see any stock that lost its macro level, see what happens next. So I'm still watching that, but not a big move there. On Amazon, AMD, this is from Thursdays to Friday's continuation. AMD lost this 6725 area on Thursday. That was the 50 day moving average and on Friday I said, look, if it loses the 66 confirming Thursday's action, it should sell more. Here is AMD, right? Here's AMD. So here's the 6725, here's the 66, took that out, went down to 64 and change. It continues to look lower. Another perfect example of a stock losing the 50 day. Qualcomm 116, if it builds below can flush. Here is Qualcomm, right? Here's Qualcomm lost to 116, went down to 113, still looks lower. Tesla, right? Again, here's the point. We don't trade the stock, we trade the channel. So here is two-sided trade. Just in case it wants the dead cat bounce, right? Again, you wanna be prepared for everything. 162 needs to build and just in case it goes lower, right? Downside channel needs to confirm is 153. So which one do you think it confirmed, right? So here's Tesla lost to 153 level, traded down to 150, traded down after hours to 149. As you guys can saw the news report, Elon continues to sell more stock. Again, it just once keeps on selling, it's gonna keep on going lower, but again, nice little move there on Tesla. Apple was definitely one of the trades of the week. Thursday was destruction. Here is the channel, 141 held three times if builds below can flush, right? So Apple broke below this 41 level, can tuck out this whole macro channel and here's Friday's continuation. Phenomenal move yesterday, 136 needs to confirm for more selling and Apple confirmed that 36 traded down to 33 and change. This thing loses that 33 and change, it goes lower, really, really great move on Apple and that is it. So now if you go through your charts for the weekend, you'll see a lot of names setting up the way a lot of these stocks did on the 50 day moving average. Look at square, right? Let me give you guys a couple of names, right? Look at square, square held the 50 day moving average once, twice, three times, four times, five times. Square finally loses the 50 day, it's gonna come in. Look at Lulu Lemon, right? Lulu had, they blew up on earnings and now it's just sitting here right on support. You see that guys? It held support back to back times. This support gets lost, I think there's a shot, it gets down to the three, 12 level, that looks great. I still love Amazon, I just think maybe it was a buyer in the crowd. I'm gonna watch Amazon, I'm gonna definitely, definitely watch Amazon. And the point is, the point is, the point is if it starts losing the bottom channel, right? If it starts losing the bottom channel here, it should go lower. So that's it guys, we are set up, we are set up for, we are set up for the day, right? We are set up for the day, we're set up for Monday. Let's see how it plays out, right? For all you guys who are trading, we are trading, right? We're trading as well, so guys have a great holiday session. I love you all, stay blessed, stay healthy and God's help, we will see each other on Monday. Take care.