 Hi, my name is Leo Roe, currency trader and trading coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forex analysis. If you are new, welcome and if you are returning, welcome back and I'd just like to say thank you for those who were subscribing this week and over the past weeks and months and I do hope that you find great value in my weekly analysis in supply and demand and you're learning a lot. Great interaction as well with some of the traders who are asking me questions and yeah, if you do want to ask me some questions and just send them in the description, the comment section in the description box below and if you're watching this on YouTube or you can email me at info at Trading180.com and I will endeavour to get back to you ASAP. Also in the description box below is the links to the charts on TradingView as well as the timestamp so you can skip to your currency pair, you know, favourites. If you do have any favourite currency pairs, you know, a lot of people trade the the majors, euro, dollar, pound, dollar, etc. So starting off as we do every week on the fundamentals and the basically sentiment drivers and fundamental data that is probably going to be ending up moving the markets. So it says on Trading Economics which is a great website. Next week the US will be publishing foreign trade data so trade balance, why is that important? Because of the effect on GDP, gross domestic product, you know, a great, a good trade balance is important for economic growth. If you're, you know, selling more than you're buying then, you know, your country should be doing well exporting more than you're importing your country, if you're importing more than you're exporting then, you know, there's probably some problems going on with the economy. So as long as, you know, US trade balance gives some decent figures, especially with the backdrop of China as well, you know, the trade war and potential deals going on, I think that's going to be a decent or potentially a decent market mover. So you've got retail sales, industrial production and flash market PMIs elsewhere. Important releases include UK inflation rates, that'd be decent, unemployment wage growth and retail sales, euro, flash market PMIs, China first quarter GDP growth rate that'd be good for, you know, risk sentiment global, whether you know the world is potentially slowing down or, you know, just basically maintaining a steady growth in China being the world's economic engine pretty much. So that's important to watch industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment, Japan inflation rate that'd be important as well, trade balance and Nikai Flash manufacturing PMIs and Australia employment figures, investors will also react to the RBA, which is the Reserve Bank of Australia and the RBI, I think that's Reserve Bank of India meeting minutes and that's really to do with whether they're going to be hiking, holding on cutting rates and what their opinion is on the state of the economy. So pretty busy week this week. And if you, you know, don't necessarily understand much about fundamentals or you want a bit of a refresher, if you look in the description box below, you'll see a guide to my fundamental analysis and sentiment, right, when it comes to forex trading and it's pretty much everything I know regarding fundamentals and sentiment and goes through, you know, why fundamental analysis, gross domestic product, inflation and so on and so forth. Also, as well, we have the fundamental analysis spreadsheet. So if you click on that, it should take you to this and it just gives you my an outline of my opinion on what I am on certain currency pairs. So the US dollar I've been bullish for, you know, for a long time. So I've just been buying pretty much dollars against everything else. And then pretty much the ratings are here regarding strength. So I might be neutral on the Australian dollar or the New Zealand dollar, but neutral is better than, you know, bearish. So, you know, you'd be buying, for example, the Aussie yen, right? And you'll see what happened pretty much this week with risk on sentiment, which is basically fundamentals in play. This doesn't take into account risk sentiment when it comes to risk off. You'd have to do, you know, a bit of reading when it comes to that. But anyway, definitely watch the course. It's absolutely free. No need to sign up to anything. Just click on, you know, this and it goes through all of the videos right here for you to watch. So let's get to the charts and starting off in a Dow Jones dollar index and dollar index. It's just a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the Euro, the yen, the pound and the Australian dollar. So last week, we came up into this zone of supply. And we also had some horizontal and diagonal resistance up in this area as well. So potentially there would have been some some sort of weakness if you were looking to sell the dollar, not necessarily selling the Dow Jones dollar index, but you'd be selling the, you know, for example, the dollar yen or the dollar Swiss, et cetera, et cetera. So what we had this week, we did react. Prices did sell off a little bit. So what you want to do is you want to watch for the Dow Jones dollar index to set off before taking any kind of short trades. If you're looking for long trades, then you'd be looking for pretty much just some bullish price action, you know, to be occurring preferably at levels of, you know, demand. So this week pretty much got rejected. But the dollar did have some decent numbers. I think it was on Thursday or Friday. So, yeah, we're in again between this, this supply, this demand zone prices are pretty much ranging. Let's go to, you know, a live chart on this. So at the moment, prices are really between caught between, I would say, this high and this low. Yeah. So you can see prices have been contained. And we're pretty just above if you're looking to buy the dollar. This 50 percent area represents fair value. And this would be either an expensive level or a cheap level, depending on whether you want to buy or sell the US dollar. But we're kind of caught between this and this. So this is what we call a ranging market or price acceptance. So at the moment, again, if you're looking for any kind of buy trades, you'll be looking for bullish price action at the moment, or preferably prices to come down into here before looking for some bullish price action there, looking for a sell trade, looking for anything like this or even currently if prices start to sell off at this level here before looking at shorting, for example, you know, dollar CAD, pound, dollar, etc. Right. So keeping an eye on the Dow Jones dollar index for dollar strength or dollar weakness. So moving on to the dollar yen. Dollar yen we had this week from last week. We had prices really come up into this area here. Right. Before selling off. There was a bit of an opportunity right here at this demand zone, but I wasn't necessarily looking to buy here. And then we had prices really kind of make new highs. So what we've got now is a new demand zone. We go to dollar yen. So this is what this would have looked like, probably on the intraday timeframe. So that first demand zone there, potential opportunities for buying if you're trading intraday 15, five minute, 30 minute charts, when price came down into this demand zone, there was an opportunity there, but I trade the four hour and higher. So for me, that wasn't necessarily any, there weren't any entries. So what we did have now this week is a nice demand zone right here. Yeah. So now what I'm looking for is prices to kind of come back into this area here before looking at a long trade. Also as well, you did have a bit of confluence of diagonal support in that area. But because there was no demand zone and demand zone is really the supply zone is a proof of value. So we didn't have necessarily value at that area. I'm also going to delete this level here. If we get prices come down here, I'm going to be a buyer if risk is on, risk starts to come off. Then right now would be a very good level to try and look for short trades. If you want to buy the Japanese yen overall, I'm a buyer of the dollar and bearish on the yen. But I'll be looking for pullbacks into one of two zones to get long on the dollar. Moving on to the dollar Swiss last week, we pretty much just went from strength to strength. There was a bit of a pullback to get involved in right right here getting into a day and then prices pretty much come up into the supply zone and now being rejected. So we're looking at the charts. This is pretty much what happened. Again, we had higher highs, higher lows. So we had high, high, high, low, high, high, high, low back into that demand zone and then prices ended up higher into this supply zone here before selling off. So right now what I'd be looking for potentially is going to be kind of touch this demand zone here. I'd probably be looking for prices come down into this area here where you've got some horizontal confluence. So you've got resistance, resistance, resistance, bit of support at this level, bit of resistance. So I'm looking for here to here. So anywhere around this 998 level, 9975 before looking at some long trades, track that across as well. And that would be the secondary I'm looking to get long potentially from a short perspective. If you didn't take this short here, you'd have to be looking for prices to again, retest this level of supply before looking to get short or you can take the underside of this supply zone to look for any kind of short trades. Remember, you are buying the Swiss Franc when you get short and you're saying that the Swiss Franc is going to get stronger than the dollar, right? So if you believe that to be truth, then or possible, then that's where you want to try and get short. Looking at the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD this week. Again, we had a bit of a range in market. An opportunity to again, get long at this demand zone. And again, we're back down in. So looking at the dollar CAD. This week, again, lower time frame. Sorry, you'd have to look for probably if you're looking to buy the dollar, waiting at this lower area of demand. Because this area has been touched several times or once, twice, three times. So if I'm looking to be a buyer, it's going to be really at the lower end of this demand zone before looking at a long trade. If you're looking at short, you'd have to look for prices to really kind of come up to this area here before looking at that. Or if prices make a new swing low, then this becomes a level of supply. And then you'd be looking for a short trade here just to ensure that oil is selling off as well before buying this currency pair. Or if you're looking to sell this currency pair or buy the Canadian dollar, you'd be looking for oil to increase in value. Moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar. And again, we did have some intraday opportunities to try and get short. So let's go to the chart from last week. Zoom in a little bit. This was a supply zone. And then you had prices come up into it before selling off and then reacting again off of this demand zone. All right, so again, there were some intraday opportunities trading off of the one hour. Trade is getting short here and potential shorts right now. Shorts being you're buying the US dollar and I think betting that the New Zealand dollar is wigged, the New Zealand dollar is central bank. The RBNZ is said that they would be cutting interest rates potentially if they did have a next rate move so that they're basically dovish on their currency. They want a weak currency. So getting short, this currency pair isn't such a bad idea, decent idea. Me personally, if I'm looking to get short, I'd be looking for price to come a bit higher before looking for any short trades and even around here. Moving on to the, well, matter of fact before I do that, if you are looking to get long on the Australian dollar then pretty much now is the time if all of you wanna wait for basically like a little bit of a pullback before looking to get long pound dollar really didn't move anywhere this week. So again, what we're looking for is prices to probably come back up into this supply zone before looking for short trades. If you're looking at a long trade, this may isn't necessarily the best level you've touched it once, twice, three times, four times. So I'll probably expect this to break and then this would be the next area I'll be looking if I was looking to buy the British pound over the US dollar, this would be the area I'd be looking for. But if I'm looking to buy the dollar over the pound then I have to wait for either price to come up here or for a new load to be made and then for prices to come back up to a supply zone before looking at the short trade. With the pound being, I guess no deal Brexit being taken off table when the deal being extended, I think the pound may increase in strength not necessarily against the dollar but against some other currency pairs. Moving on to the US euro dollar and the euro dollar this week is coming to a zone of interest. So short trades at the moment, this is what we'd be looking for. We're looking to buy the dollar. There is some demand zones right here. So if you are looking to buy the euro then you'd be looking to buy the euro at this area here. What we do have is also a bit of confluence within this area. But again, the question you have to kind of ask yourself is why are you buying the euro from a fundamental perspective? Dollar is the stronger out of the two. It doesn't mean that prices will always go down but in the balance of probabilities you've probably got a decent trade to the short side. If it doesn't work out then anywhere around this area and this supply zone would be where I'll be getting short next. If you're looking to get long you'd be waiting for a pullback into this demand zone before looking at long trades or down here into this area before looking at getting long. What else is there? I think that's about it. Euro yen, it's a euro yen. Again, risk being on, prices really have decided to make higher highs, higher lows. We've come back up into this lower supply zone here. So if you are looking to short this currency pair by the Japanese yen, then this is a decent level. I'd probably wait for a bit of a fresher level. This has been touched already. So prices can come up here before looking to get short. Now is a decent time as well. Matter of fact, the first time touches is good. Second time is still okay but when you start to get into the third and fourth times the level starts to get weaker and weaker. So now is okay but probably wait for any kind of short trades but you also have to wait for risk off sentiment to kind of come into the market. So let's say, for example, China slowed down. You've got the European elections starting as well. So might not be a bad decision to look for potential short trades as there's gonna be a bit of uncertainty in Europe, right? So decent short from a risk off perspective. If you are looking to buy the Euro then this is gonna be the first area to look for some long trades and we do have a bit of a level probably around there. Let's extend it a little bit up slightly. Yeah, I'd probably say that area is, it's okay. Moving on to the Aussie dollar, US dollar. Really I should be using this. So what have we had this week? So this week we've had prices reject off of that level but then with some Aussie strength we've come back up into the supply zone. So again, decent short in opportunity. If you're looking to buy the US dollar right now quite a decent but I prefer, I prefer the underside to this supply level here. Yeah, if prices do come up to here before looking at any kind of short, if you're looking for a long trade I guess there was some demand here as well for an intraday perspective but if I was looking at probably buying, let's go back a little bit. Probably there is a bit of, I guess intraday, let me go down into the intraday timeframe here. You'd be looking for that level there because you've got resistance, resistance, resistance, resistance and then got a bit of confluence in that demand zone right there. From a daily it's not necessarily the clearest but on the lower timeframe. It is, if you wanna be a buyer of the US dollar, sorry, a buyer of the Australian dollar over the US dollar, that would be the first area to look for any kind of long trades intraday. And finally looking at the Aussie dollar, Japanese yen, again, this is what happened last week and risk being on, so the stock market, rallying in gold, selling off a little bit. You've had the Australian dollar basically breakout of this supply zone. So looking at the Aussie yen, what next? The clearest demand zone here and we also have some demand right there. In fact, I'll just make it a bit more accurate right there. That's the effect I'll engulf this as well right there. So we've got a cluster of demand right here. It's price has been making higher highs, higher lows. So what do we wanna do when you get a cluster of something like that going on? You just add horizontal support and resistance so probably the top of this zone is gonna be the first area to look for any kind of long trades if prices pull back into that zone. Intraday wise, let's see if there's any, yeah, so you've got a decent level right here as well for a long trade. If prices come down deeper into this 79 round number, so that would be for me, that would probably be the better level if it does come down here before looking at any kind of long trades, just making sure that risk is on when you're taking this type of trade. So if China's doing okay and globally that should be fine. If it comes to the European elections do start to come out and Brexit and there are things that are changing then potentially we could see the risk of environment, but then I wouldn't necessarily be trading this currency pair based off of any kind of European election risk of sentiment. You'd be basically looking at the euro yen or the pound, pound yen type trades, right? So that brings us to really the end of this week and again, hope you enjoyed it. If you do have any questions, just email me or leave a comment in the section box below and I will endeavour to get back to you ASAP. Please don't forget to like, subscribe and share and thank you again for watching and take care.