 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is not just the first week of college football this weekend It is that we talked about that with Ed Feng yesterday, but we also got in match week number four in EPL We have got the playoff opener for the NASCAR Cup series in Darlington and we've got formula one back on the schedule for this week there out in Monza for the Italian Grand Prix It is a jam-packed sports weekend here to break down that with us and talks me P. L Is Austin Cass will talk to him pick his brain on the biggest match of this week arsenal against man United No, let's talk about hysteria bets at Fandall sportsbook Then I'll go through NASCAR on Darlington and formula one in Monza This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass You can find him on Twitter at Austin Cass. He is a senior editor for Fandall research Austin We are on to match week number four. How you doing today? I'm doing really well Yeah, hearing you rattle off all the sports stuff coming up just got me really excited for this weekend It got me like I know that like it goes in like waves for me for the NFL where I like I'm like, oh my gosh I'm like so excited. Oh my gosh. I'm overwhelmed the seasons are on the corner, but still excited But then when you add in like this is like the last quote-unquote free weekend until January or whatever it is But when it's offset by having all this stuff It's really hard for me to have like the the Sunday scaries Effectively of anything because like it's just kind of a loaded weekend him Yeah, it's I think this is like the best sports time of the year, especially once baseball playoffs keep going I really like the playoffs and I mean March madness is amazing for those couple days of the first weekend But this is such a great time. There's just so much going on There really is so we're gonna try to cover all the bases as mentioned We did talk about college football with Ed Feng yesterday week one preview is posted on covering the spread the Fandall YouTube page And over on Fandall TV plus if you want to watch Fandall TV plus you can watch on Amazon Amazon TV Apple TV or Roku devices You can also check is check it out by going to fandall.com Slash watch login with your Fandall ID Fandall username and password You can watch up and Adams live there along with all the Fandall podcasts for covering the spread Solo shot and NFL heat check one week from today as well Let's start things off here by talking about match week number four in the EPL Austin And the big match of the week is going to be on Sunday That is between Arsenal and Manchester United right now Arsenal minus 130 to win this game at the man United money line is plus 330 a draw is plus 290 When you look at this match Austin anything stand out to you as far as betting at Fandall Sportsbook Yeah, so I like Arsenal at that minus 130 money line for me. It's pretty simple I think Arsenal are a good bit better than man United There's a lot of numbers that would point to that and then once you factor in the home field advantage I think Arsenal at mine minus 130 makes a lot of sense It's very similar reasoning to what I went with with Newcastle last week against Liverpool. The result didn't go our way but by XG Newcastle really controlled that game. So it makes me feel good about the process So Arsenal's got an expected goal differential plus 3.3 according to FB ref Through three matches United are at plus 1.9 A year ago Arsenal finished with an expected goal differential That was 12.6 goals better than man United's and by XG Arsenal thrashed United when they hosted him last year 3.1 to 0.4 It wasn't just at Arsenal that united struggled united had a miserable way record against all the top sides last year in four matches against the other Four sides that finished in the top five Man United lost all four times and the aggregate score was 18 to five But only one goal defeat of the bunch was the match at Arsenal which finished three to two despite the superlopsided XG score Arsenal meanwhile had the third best home expected goal differential in the league last year and probably just played very well in their last match That was at home. They beat Or they tied for him two to two but on XG it was 3.2 to 0.6 So we've got an Arsenal team that I think is better than Man United Arsenal plays really well at home and then the united side that struggles mightily on the road against good teams So it all adds up to me like an arsenal at that minus 130 Do you put more weight into performance against like top tier teams in a league where It can be a bit top heavy and where the gap between The top end teams and the bottom end teams is a bit larger So like in theory you look at you look at the table you look at, you know Futures markets for the EPL Man United actually grades out as being a decent team in that regard if you like rank them But it seems like there are big tiers and it doesn't seem like you view Man United as being As close to that top tier as you view Arsenal. Is that a proper way to sum things up there? Yeah, I'd say that's fair. Um, I think I don't know if it's last episode or maybe episode before Uh, I think we talked about how I like Man United to not make the top four So those top teams I have them near the bottom But your point about like the big matches when the other big sides play each other I rely pretty heavily on that sample because those matches will play out much differently for the top teams than other matches. So for example In those matches Man United are going to have a lot less of the ball have to play a lot more defense Probably try to hit teams on the counter, especially away from home So if they're really struggling in those types of matches that matters a lot to me when trying to predict How they're going to be in those matches going forward It's just a different kind of Skill then and a different kind of strength is required in those matches I think it does make a lot of sense to put more weight into those and that does lead austin To liking the arsenal money line currently minus 130 Over at fangal sportsbook But plenty of other matches on tap for this week Austin before we have EPL on a bi-week next week So when you look at the other matches for this week, where else do you see value at fangal sportsbook? So this is a little terrifying to say, but I like everton's money line. They're uh plus 145 It's the first match saturday morning at 7 30 a.m eastern time They're playing at sheffield united It's it's really scary to back everton right now They've lost three straight matches. They haven't scored a goal So far it feels like they're headed for another season where there'll be fighting off relegation And they probably have to be in a pretty fragile mental state right now given how the first three matches have gone for them So all that's obviously pretty scary But there are reasons to back them. I think odds odds makers agree because they've made everton's sun favorite here The biggest reason To be bullish about everton is that sheffield united have been even worse than everton Um, I think I've kind of dogged on them a few times here. I think they're they them or looting town Are probably going to be the worst team in the league this year Um So yeah, the blades are also winless. They haven't expected goal differential of minus 5.1, which is the second worst in the league They've mustered just 0.5 0.5 and 0.7 expected goals In attack through their three matches. They've conceded at least 1.5 hg in every match Uh, the other reason to not be super grossed out by everton is that they haven't been as bad as the results say Their expected goal differential is only minus 0.0 or sorry minus 0.8 So 4.3 goals better than sheffield united Sheffield united's xg numbers are a little skewed by having to face man city last time out But the blades aggregate xg tally versus knotting them for us from crystal palace Um Two sides, I would say are somewhere comparable to everton is one point xg scored in 3.3 xg allowed So yeah, like I said, we've got a pretty bad everton team But one that's not as terrible as the results say and sheffield united has been every bit as bad as their results say so If everton spirit isn't too crushed by their dreadful start I think they can take three points from this game and i'm into them at this money line, but I am a little worried that if if everton concede first that things might really snowball for them, but Overall, I do like him at this plus 145 number We do see situations like that in like if you're betting nfl Where a team just gets like demoralized and things like that But I think the the saving grace for you in this regard is There's gonna be a lot to play for for everton regardless if they're trying to avoid relegation and still pretty early in the year So I understand where you're coming from from the perspective of I don't want to be too wary of betting on a gross team and you know the stink of having zero goals so far May allow us to get them at a bit of a value and obviously again Like you said bookmakers are not Not dumb to that they know and they do make everton the same favor here at plus 145 but How much do you worry about the mental side of things at this point because From my perspective the season just started so there should be a long way to go Does that bother you knowing that it's been such a rough start? It definitely does bother me. Um everton are a really big historically and not a club that should be uh Fight and just sustain the division right they've had to do for two straight years They actually came into the last day last year needing a result to avoid relegation so I think It each time it feels like well this next year like it won't happen again And then it's like well it sure seems like it's gonna happen um But I think we see it a lot in the nfo where where you have a break like a week long break between games That momentum doesn't really carry over right and each each games is so monstrous. So That's what I'm telling myself at least when I'm back But uh Yeah, I just think there's a lot of things that point to everton being the better side and I like that plus 145 number Well, hopefully for us sheffield is just as crushed and we can uh ignore The narrative side of things and just bask in what xg is saying that is austin cast You can find him on twitter at austin cast find his work over at fan dual research by going to fan dual dot com Slash research austin no show next week because of the off week But looking forward to having you back on once again later on this fall to talk more epl Good luck to you this weekend. We'll talk to you again soon Sounds good. Thank you very much Alrighty, thank you once again to austin for breaking down the epl for us and slowly slowly getting me to understand Soccer a bit more than I did before we'll dive in and talk some NASCAR and formula one here in just one second at first get out your game day gear because college football is back And fan dual wants you to join in on the fun right now All customers can get a no sweat bet for week one just place a bet on any week one college football game You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win that our money line spreads totals and more just visit The fan dual sports book app and kick the college football season with Number or america's number one sports book must be 21 plus and president select states refund issued is non-referable bonus bets That expire seven days after a seat max refund is five dollars unless otherwise specified Restrictions apply c terms at sports book dot fan dual dot com fan dual is offering online sports Wadring in kansas's under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem call one hundred gambler or visit fan dual dot com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step protects next step to five three three four two in connecticut one eight and eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven Or visit ccpg.org such chat in indiana one eight hundred nine and with it in y oming in kansas one eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred or in kansas ks gambling health dot com Louisiana's one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in mariland mv gambling health dot orc in y o West virginia one hundred gambler dot net in massachusetts hope is here gambling helpline ma.org Or call 800 327 50 50 or 24 seven support and in new york one eight seven seven eight hoping wire text hope and why Let's talk now about some nascar where they have the opening week of the playoffs this week It is in darlington and it's a bit of a tricky race to handicap because the past two or so months That's three months actually have been a lot of road courses a lot of pack tracks and not a lot of courses similar to darlington now darlington is unique to begin with but Haven't seen many Tracks like this recently we've seen some teams like rfk racing ford in general Getting a bit better recently So it's kind of hard to know fully what to expect and as a result My model has no drivers win odds above 10.12 percent I think that's where denny hamlin settles in at as a favorite in my model For this week's race and you see kyle arson martin trex jr. 5 to 1 if annual sports book obviously I won't get there The good thing is i don't have to avoid playoff drivers in order to find value in the outright market for this week I can still Get a driver with big motivation get a driver who has been fast on tracks like this on a good team And bet them for this weekend to me that leads me to tyler retic 13 to 1 at vandal sports book now I think it's worth mentioning that vandal is actually above market on tyler retic 13 to 1 a pretty short number relative to What you can get elsewhere But even at 13 to 1 I still show value on retic as of right now He is 8 to win for me versus 7.1 implied odds and The reason my model loves retic is because he is very good on tracks with a lot of tire fall off That is a key characteristic of garlandton because Very few tracks have as much tire fall off as this one does other tracks that are similar to that or fontana and homestead Couple of spots where retic has traditionally run very well Now garlandton is not a spot where he won in exceeding. He has not won in the cup series either, but He did have two podiums here last year when he was racing with richard children's racing I think 2311 is a bit better equipment than rcr is so equipment upgrade for him Where he finished in the podium twice last year also had two podiums here in the xfinity series back when he was a regular down there so retic in theory should be a good track fit here because of his experience and his quality on Tracks the lot of tire fall off and we've seen that Even if it hasn't resulted in a win just yet So retic to me. I think is a great bet for this weekend I also should value in his teammate bubba wallace if you could bet 2311 racing in general to win this week Which you can do at some spots. I showed value in bubba individually at 281 I just like retics upside more than I like wallaces So I feel good about 2311 in general getting back to a speed or a track where speed matters quite a bit a track where They both had good runs or you know are capable of having good runs So 13 to 1 on retic not the best number you can get But even if it is the best number you can get I do still show value there on retic to win for this week Other bets I like for this week are both top 10 bets on non-playoff drivers And I don't I don't mind betting an outright on a non-playoff driver actually had eric jones to win this race last year. So He was a non-playoff driver non-playoff drivers won each of the opening Three races in the first round of playoffs last year So I can bet on guys not in the playoffs and still feel pretty good about that If they're fast enough and alex bowman is driving for hendrick, which means to me He's probably going to have that speed and his top 10 odds are plus 190 I think that is a good amount longer than it should be I have bowman at 39 to finish inside the top 10 his implied odds here at 35 percent and bowman Has struggled coming off of his back injury But it does seem like he's been getting a bit better overall of late He's had better runs and it lines up well where we go to a slick track and bowman has traditionally run Pretty well on those and on concrete. I feel like even though there's not a lot of tire fall off on concrete tracks there is some similarities where Um, you got to search for the right groove stuff like that So I do tend to care a bit about concrete when we go to places like darlington and bowman does tend to run pretty well there now darlington specifically has not been a fantastic track for bowman To finish runner up here back in 2020 the first race off the covet break He had a sixth place finish. I think in the final race that year as well He was 10th in the second race last year. So it has hasn't been his best track But also has not been awful But I think that what we get here is a driver in very good equipment Who has shown strength on slick tracks in the past and you're getting a plus 190 for a top 10 I think that's good enough value to bet him. So alex bowman top 10 at plus 190 A quality bet based on my numbers for sunday's race The other top 10 that is also on a non playoff driver. That's eric elmerola at plus 750 and My model is not high in elmerola So I didn't expect to go into this week betting him in any market because I wouldn't really want to in general, but The market's a little bit lower than I am. I have elmerola's top 10 odds at 17.9 percent His implied odds are 11.8 percent Stuart house racing has been awful on tracks like this this year where they've had just no speed on The bigger tracks chase brisco has been a back marker effectively on this track type But elmerola at least has been somewhat competitive He had a 15th place average running position in the first going to race finished 13th in kansas 16th in vegas and both of those tracks have Medium tire fall off whereas going to is a big-time tire fall track They had the richman race recently and elmerola ran really well there Now it's a very different track because it runs a different rules package So you don't want to over weigh that in the model, but it is good to see him Have a good run at a track with a lot of tire degradation So I don't want to be here I don't want to bet on a driver for shr to finish top 10 At a track like this because they've been so awful on this track type this year all the resources all the focus for that team Will be on kevin harvick the lone playoff driver there, but I think 750 is too long. So i'm going to take uh, Eric elmerola top 10 plus 750 in addition to bowman at plus 750 and then add on the reddick outright at 13 to 1 Let's talk now about some formula one for this week as well. They're out in manza for the italian grand prix and The best value on the board earlier on this week has dried up a bit, but there is still value there When I ran my sims at the first part of the week The best bet that I saw was carlo signs finished top six, which was plus 115 at the time now Posted my sims over at on vandal research and since that time We've seen signs shortened to minus 110 for a top six I do still show value there Signs for me to finish top six is 55.5 percent his implied odds at minus 110 are 52.4 percent So I believe you can get even money in some places still So I would at least shop around so you can get that on signs if you can get even money I would take it honestly at minus 110 I don't think it's a bad bet either because I do still show a decent amount of value there I would also say for signs I've got value in him to finish inside the top 10 at minus 300 and a podium at five to one The podium bet specifically the implied odds at five to one are 16.7 percent I have signs at 22.3 percent That might be a bit high But I think this is a better track fit for ferrari than what we've seen here recently because it's a high speed track There is extra pressure on them this week because It is their home race and pressure on ferrari is probably not a good thing given the way Things have gone for them since the start of basically Ever since the michael schumacher era so like pressure is probably not a great thing for ferrari, but I think it's a good track fit for them So I think it's at least a consideration to go with the signs podium at five to one I like the top 10 bet at minus 300. I have signs at 82.1 percent for a top 10 implied odds there are 75 I also do show value on his teammate charle claire finished top 10 and that is minus 370 now for Fandall is specifically you cannot parlay top 10 bets. Um, so that's not an option But la claire minus 370 signs minus 300 both values for me based on what my numbers say I've got la claire 83 percent with his implied odds at 79 percent So I think the ferrari is in general kind of under value for this week now not to beat red bull not I'm not crazy But to get a podium maybe for signs get a top 10 for both those guys and to get a top six For signs as well. I think we can see good value there. So if you're betting formula one for this week I feel like the best route as frightening as it may be bad vibes abound I think it does make sense to be high on ferrari for their home grand prix in monza That's all that we have here for today on covering the spread But we'll be back once again tomorrow by talking to pitching ninja talking about his favorite strikeout props for friday And also full nfl slate coming up next week our new schedule will debut there looking forward to that So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. You can also check us out On the fandal youtube page and over on fandal tv plus as well Thank you once again to austin cas for swinging by talking epl with us You can find him on twitter at austin cas find his work over on fandal research I am on twitter at jim sonnis. You can also follow fandal research at fandal research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to with your bets across college football for tonight Reminded to check out our podcast with ed from yesterday and we'll talk to you once again on friday This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network