 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday May 17th 2023. I am chief meteorologist John Linsworth for Longmont Public Media I have a new moon Friday, so nothing to see I've got minimal sunspot activity on the side of the Sun, but a big one erupted just over the limb and This we could see the upper energy from it now it is beginning to rotate Into view so the next couple weeks we could see some more geomagnetic activity looking at drought conditions This is slightly older data, so things got a touch worse But that is going to turn around next week dramatically looking nationally things Got better in a lot of spots in the Great Plains, and we're gonna see more relief there, too. So all good news Drought apparently is going on in Mexico, and there's some dry spots in the Pacific Northwest Which I guess I'm finding out how to believe and there's smoke coming up into the Western atmosphere So we have minimal smoke level right now, but you might see some haze if more of this gets in here taking a look at the snowpack for the winter and It's plunging rapidly as temperatures warm we're starting to see Just about 80s down here on the I-25 area, but it normally plunges very quickly So we're still at 138% snowpack statewide Now we have about five Cocoa Ross rain gauge maps showing all the tremendous amount of water we got Just since last time. So this is about the Thursday morning 7 a.m. So pulls in the Wednesday precipitation so two-thirds of an inch around Longmont a little bit more and bolder two inches on Longmont on Friday morning up to Friday morning and then an inch and a half to two inches southside boulder Longmont got Just about 10th of an inch on Saturday got a little bit more a couple tenths of an inch or so in places in Boulder Up to Sunday morning another 10th of an inch. We got about an inch in places in Boulder Just a little bit less than 10th of an inch on Monday another inch and a half or so around Boulder By Wednesday morning another 10th there traces down in Boulder just a lot of water this week and this map shows Graphically where it all hit so the oranges yellows and oranges are two to four inches So a vast area from Fort Collins to be far below Colorado Springs That bulls eye area of red and dark red that takes up to eight inches Just amazing amount of water looking at our Severe weather climatology on first week second week and third week of May the chances of severe weather are definitely here and We have some out on the Eastern Plains on Wednesday Originally was drawn along the I-25 corridor and now it looks like some dry air is in place and yeah Not so much, but we could get wandering thunderstorms. You might see peat and nickel sized hail Which isn't quite severe for Thursday. It's back down here in the Texas, Oklahoma area and then spear weather down through Texas into our Arkansas get my states right All right looking at the national map forecast for Wednesday general chance of showers in most places in the west higher Elevation mountains get snow. We have chance of very intense rain right here And that is right where the worst drought is so we are seeing good relief We do have a cold front coming down Thursday. It's gonna be south of the state on Friday Some lingering upslope showers behind it Well the next 10 days we're going from 72 to 75 for a normal temperature of 43 to 46 So the normal low and the temperatures are kind of bouncing around in there We have a cool period at the end of the week kind of hover in the lower Region here, but that's also the wettest portion that you can see every afternoon a chance of thunderstorms with all the moisture present There's another way to look at that moisture. This is the water vapor satellite image We've got some real dry stuff on the ocean here real drier over in Ohio to Pennsylvania like that But the west is doing great So the only notable storm I want to focus in on is this Thursday p.m. Friday Rain chance. You have a trough sweeping in from the north And we have the low up here in the Great Lakes more front out ahead cold front coming way back down the plains And that's where the showers are we have upslope behind the front for Thursday p.m. Friday So over the next 10 days, let's watch that trough swing by there's Thursday into Friday There is a big ridge in the west you can see that It kind of anchors in and stays persistent as we go from Sunday into Monday comes the trough in the North of us, but it's not doing much kind of cutting off and sending a trough down the west coast So we're on the up slope side of a big trough now by the time we get to Wednesday Thursday next week That low is just spinning over there Do you look at temperatures? Whenever you see that got cauliflower purple, that's a bunch of it right there thunderstorms dropping cool air So there comes the front and see the showers and client us behind that And that cooler does settle down to the southeast us and southern states. There's more thunderstorms in the west And the heat under the ridge tries to get going, but thunderstorms cool everything off in the afternoon So we're out to Wednesday Thursday more thunderstorms General background of warm temperatures until you get to the afternoon early evening So the temperatures don't matter as much the temperature map doesn't tell us things like it does in the winter with cold fronts, but the this Precipitable water map animation does show you how much water is available in the air to be acted upon with the heat with the thunderstorms initiating Midday and then moving out onto the plains if other things don't get in the way the moisture is there We are into Wednesday Thursday Generally just above normal amounts of atmospheric moisture most of the time there's a desert southwest getting dry, but we still have some Rockies and eastern side of the mountains Do points were surface moisture. This is what you need for the thunderstorms and rain and That's above average or to be in the 40s and eventually even have 50s sneak into the plains That's where you get enough cold air aloft and get your severe weather chances hail tornadoes and things like that Winds have to be correct for the channels as well, but there you go 50 60 dew points right on on the Kansas border. That's moist So let's take a look at there's thunderstorms popping up the afternoon Wednesday. There's Thursday some stronger storms to our southeast and Into the weekend get a little bit of a break mountains. We're getting some afternoon thunderstorms and showers There's another on Sunday Another coming out on the plains on Monday night and Tuesday no more organized activity and Wednesday So you can see every afternoon Watch the western sky Maybe not go hike in the afternoon or be ready to get shelter if you do get caught out in the hails happening But yeah, just keeps it happening. So over the next three days Just kind of scooping in this at weekend or end of week storm You can see some possible really good in water amounts around Boulder Denver one month. That's over an inch Then over the next five days Southern part of the state gets more and then over the next 10 days if this verifies Much of the state gets one to even three inches of of additional water. So Yeah, say goodbye to drought conditions I'm just taking a bigger picture for fun taking a look at the entire west except for the west coast itself and down to Mexico Those fires are lots of rain is going to be adding up looking to our south east and east This is that super drought stricken area and there's inches and inches of rain Expected to come down. So great news for the crops and the farmers and everybody else just for fun There's our snow for the next 10 days just the highest elevations So we start out right around what 80 on Wednesday cool down for the end of the week and see some good rain chances and thunderstorms We get a little above the normal going through the weekend and into next week or above normal again with Increasing chances as we saw the more organized system on Tuesday Longmont leader and Broomfield leader have lots of great local news and I update the weather as needed there Which is sometimes pretty often when things are changing quickly This has been chief meteorologist John insworth keep looking up