 Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 Or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. We're gonna go back in time folks of four years to September the 19th of 2019 I posted the weekly chart here of the Crude oil you can see the little red dot here the little arrow that was September the 19th and 20th I want you to see where we closed on that previous Friday What happened on Sunday night? Actually was it was late Saturday night early Sunday morning that the Iranian drones supposedly hit the Saudi oil fields and Crude oil jumped nine dollars a barrel up to sixty nine dollars and change That's where it opened and stayed there for just about an hour Now I was in London doing a three-day seminar with the Tom Hougard Dr. David Paul and myself and I was doing the trading on Sunday and the first trade that popped into my mind was we Were sitting right at the seventy eight percent level and the oil was up nine dollars and everybody in that room said You got to be absolute nuts to sell crude oil with all this stuff going on I said well maybe so but I got a dance with the girl that took me to the dance and this girl's got a pretty dress on And I'm gonna take a shot. So I sold the oil at sixty nine ten. I was sixty nine twenty five I had put a stop in at sixty nine seventy five and it broke eight dollars What is a barrel eight dollars a barrel you can't see it on here 20 minutes gonna send me the data But I I just remembered that he has that access to that data, but it broke eight dollars folks And then went all the way back up and matched the high at sixty nine twenty five again It had a sixteen dollar swing on Sunday, but people you know when you look at this you don't see that I'm gonna show it to you tomorrow because Jimmy will send it to me But that's exactly what happened. We had a young man in the room from Denmark and he was a trader He was doing quite well and he had done some pattern recognition stuff But he came up and told me After I when the trade was just on he said I think you're silly for doing this He said but if this works, he said I'm gonna fly to Tucson and learn what to do what you do Well, he hasn't been here yet But he's become a pretty good student and he has his own hedge fund now and is doing very very well But from there you can see the market went from sixty nine, you know It dropped all the way down twenty dollars a barrel all the way down to To forty forty two or forty three and then of course the rest of it doesn't make any difference The reason why I'm telling you this this is exactly what happened last night. They they they said Oh, yes, we're gonna cut back supply. Well cutting back supply means that there's gonna be higher prices usually, right? Well, that doesn't mean they're gonna stay up there the high today And I don't know if this is gonna be the case and up at the high today was eighty one fifty per barrel now The sixty one percent retracement on the weekly chart is eighty two fifty six within one dollar barrel So eighty two fifty six is a marker than I'm watching says because if we get there and don't get any higher than that That tells me yes, that number is going to be relatively strong I think just like today's high in the Dow Jones industrial average at thirty eight thousand eight Twenty-six the high was the that was the number and the number was thirty eight thousand eight twenty eight was the exact sixty one percent retracement from the 70 December of two thousand and Night two thousand and twenty one high Okay, so that tells us that my gosh, maybe maybe this might work, but it's been off by Two Dow points so far, so you can't really count that yet. That's not accuracy two Dow points out of thirty eight thousand eight hundred and Twenty-six who knows the other one that's interesting And I want to bring this to your attention too because this has been the weak sister among all these things And that is the Russell and I want to get this up here to show you because this is one of our one of our Favorite patterns is probably you know like I'm saying these are only probabilities folks That's all they are, but you'll see here that we had the We made a sixty excuse me a thirty eight percent retracement Okay, we had four points higher Of the high that we made way back here in February now this one made a higher high way way back there It it's so far away from the three eight two the three eight twos way up here somewhere But that's all we've done. We've had a nice ten-day rally Stopped right at the three eight two and then of course it took out Friday's low had a big outside day to the downside And now just hovering there doing nothing But this has the potential of being a one three five pattern you see the lower highs that we have here the symmetry between High one high three and high five high five. Hey, that's what they usually say it in our high school there Johnny says Johnny's just moved to high school. He went from the fifth grade Directly into high school this week folks. He's done so well on his his ciphering. He's done really good now Speaking of the one three five pattern Those of you that are involved with the stock of Apple you should you should bow to the trading gods. Oh dear. What's this here? Hold on a second. We'll just get that taken care of hold on You know, we have neighbors here that we take care of and whenever they call we have to answer Anyway, this is Apple you can see folks. It's a daily chart. This is a one three five pattern I want you to see the difference here between the highs. That's a one three five We have lower lower highs. This is in a downtrend We're right at sixty five dollars a share We need to close above sixty six dollars a share to violate that and if we do this thing could be on its way a Lot higher and all the markets are going to be going higher And that's certainly a possibility because these markets move in really quick fashion once they move But this is a perfect one three five pattern in Apple when it fails It goes above sixty six and a half sixty six and a quarter and then it's off to the races to the upside But until that happens Apple is still in a downtrend You can see look at the beautiful ABCD down here We talked about this, you know two and a half months ago when it was sitting there right there about two months ago We were sitting right there at the at the bottom, you know right there 125 now We're up at 160. We had a heck of a move So those are these are these are just patterns folks and when they fail They're telling you something that something is there that you're not aware of and so the market's either going to go higher than lower than that level Because if this mark this market could have easily kept going to the downside it can easily keep going to the upside You can make the rules for anything I mean just the fact that we've had a big increase in the price of oil is not going to be good for those of us That are on a on a fixed income like on Social Security like I am then you don't have to do some riding my bicycle to work Oh, I work at home. So that makes it a little bit easier. So let's pay attention to that I really hope and I'm gonna get on Jimmy's Jim 20 men's case tomorrow to show you the Action of that September the 19th because I remember it so vividly The market broke from 69 down to about 61 and they were right back to 69 Kissed it goodbye and then boom went from 69 all the way down to 52. I believe it dropped For $17 a barrel over the next three or four months So just because these news items are out here, you might only act a day or two But that's really what you're looking at as you're watching here We had a big big 61% retracement in gold last night down there at that six excuse me 1963 level and up 40 bucks To breaking out above 200 again. So and bonds moving stronger all those things we think we're going higher So we'll see We'll be right back folks eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the Volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Keg stats Tiger 4x report Teddy Keg stat breaks down the 4x markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures Forex stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly Tiger 4x report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar Swiss dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T bonds as they both influence 4x markets tremendously when you sign up for the Tiger 4x report You also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive. He just hosted 4x strategies and fundamentals What is behind the Tiger 4x report for all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger 4x report subscription today? Visit the front page of TFNN comm TFNN educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing at number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge Every day it is mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN educating investors Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis In our gear to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com TFNN educating investors at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Hey folks I posted the chart of the 30-year treasury bot and you can see here we've had this little tiny Over the past two weeks light retracement could barely make the 382 retracement and now we're starting to You know accelerate to the upside much like we're looking at in the gold market too. Both of those are looking very very positive From a technical standpoint for much higher prices We're trading substantially, but at least we were a little while ago Substantially above $2,000 An ounce now in the june contract. So that tells us we're probably going to keep keep moving To the upside now. There's a couple of other charts that You know we've talked about the The crude oil we've talked about the stock market. We've talked about Well, the soybean market is still going higher folks So got out of that one too soon. It's a something but my harbinger of what we have to look at But let's get together here on something else that we've been waiting for for a very long time And it happened here on sunday night and that is our natural gas Finally after all of this time waiting, we finally got down To our abcd point, which was a you'll measure here came in at 204 the lowest 201 90 we're trading about 10 points above that which is no big deal But now you're in a in a risk-free situation. You go below there You don't want to hold it But at least it went exactly to the price that we thought it was going to go to And so your risk now is is very very small If in fact it works We don't know whether it's going to work But we don't know on any of these things whether they're going to work and nobody else does either So that's the real difference by the way our guests today at the break Will be none other than steve huge of alpha insights who's done a fabulous job You know on some of these markets and then tomorrow we'll have stan harley of the harley stock market letter Will be our guests And if I have any luck at all i'm going to have jim 20 min on on wednesday So we can talk about data harmonic numbers and some of the things that he looks at when he's watching some of these markets I wanted to share with you something that happened last week on wednesday that was extremely important An aberration that I had not seen in just about well, I probably saw it, but I don't remember it This was the uh the chart i'm going to pull up here now is the left is going to be The emini s and p and the right is the dow jones industrial average You'll notice that the dow jones industrial average on the right made a three eight true retracement of the previous day But look at the s and p folks It wouldn't even back off anywhere to give any type of a three eight two retracement and that would That abcd structure is what it what it got up to at that 41 58 level which was a 1.618 expansion of that move and that's why The high today well here's another one We were looking at it to go to 41 58 and it missed it by Well, it went to 41 Uh 57 75 it missed it by one tick So we can't count that as a possible hit because that's off by 12 dollars and 50 cents Okay, now let's move on here And uh This move on here one second here and we'll pull up another one by the way folks when i'm on the a few folks are Well, never mind. It doesn't make any difference. I wanted to share with you across the pond We're going to give you a free a free ride over there over to the uk and what we're going to do now Before we stop at the uk we are going to stop in germany And let you see what's going on with the german dachs And if you like abcd's and you like fibonacci's There you are folks. There's a double top with a double abcd pattern coming in right at that double top area right here You can see there's your abcd here. There's your abcd there So it's a double does that mean it can't continue going far far to the upside Absolutely it can and that's when a pattern fails and that's when you say cyanara Get on another train write another boat whatever you have to do But you don't want to stand in front of that freight train and it did take out that previous high From march the second, but uh, it sold off right after that So all they did is go up there and look at the stops and then it rolled over so far But this is just one day. Perhaps uh one day Doesn't really count you got to get it down a couple days before you do anything Now another market that's in the news all the time and very very important from fibonacci And pattern standpoint is bitcoin again. I know it's blockchain Uh, you know that type of stuff, but I don't know much other than that other than cryptocurrency type stuff But there was your 382 retracement or the high we made last year You can see the 382 off of that level the abcd and they all they talk about is the fact that it's up 70 percent Tell me something folks if you bought that thing at 67,000 at the high and it's trading at 28,000 Does it make you feel any better than the fact that it's up 70 percent? I don't think so, but that's what you're at. You're right at the 382 retracement as 28,860 or something like that And I believe it hit 29,010 It's within a hundred dollars of the exact hundred dollars of the exact price per coin. It's not per share. It's per coin And uh, so we'll not worry about that Okay, now We want to cover one other one here. That's very important. We got several to cover here before jeff comes on I've covered the natural gas. I wanted to talk to you A little bit. I've mentioned something that I don't want to get involved in but I've got to mention it a little bit And that is These markets that run and just keep running and running and running are really difficult to trade Now my teacher My my my first teacher. Well, my second teacher was john hill and john used to talk to me about dynam dynamite triangles They're also known as flags. Now. I'm not gonna. I'm not going to go into this because what we have you just can't beat You can't beat abcd. You can't beat fit ben nachi Some people trade flags and pennants and all those are you'll notice that Markets consolidate before they explode to the upside. Now. I don't trade this way I bring it to your attention to show you that yes, some people do do this But I don't uh, I might someday but right right now. I'm not going to do it I'm a pattern recognition swing trader folks I've been in this business for 62 years with ab equal cd and i'm going to the wall with abcd because it's with me all the time And I can't tell you how many times and it's saved my bacon You know, look at this. How long we've been waiting to buy this natural gas On the downside. I mean, you finally got to our level and finally got there. Sure, that's great Whether whether it stays there or not. I don't know But at least it's got everything that I need to know now when you're doing these first of all You can't do these flags and pennants unless you're looking interday And most people don't want to sit in front of the machine every day and all day long I don't like doing that. So this is not a good strategy. That's why I don't have anything to I don't have any interest in it because that's not that's not what i'm about. You know, I'm uh Anyway, I'm bringing this to your attention folks to show you that yes You can get into these things but you have to be able to prepare yourself for now The fact that the soybeans were got so strong now We're looking to buy november beans, which is the new crop beans They're trading for two dollars a bushel under the uh, july And we will get a chance to buy it here the next two or three days the first three day pullback I'll have my little eyes on the ears on it and so my My fellow traders and we're going to be looking to buy those november beans if we get the perfect setup Well, we don't have to risk very much and that's what we're looking at folks We're looking for a perfect setup because at that point we know this is where we stand We know whether we're going to be there to play or not, you know, you don't have to go in early Let's take a break. We're going to be right back with Jeff huge of alpha insights and Stay tuned eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every monday morning I publish the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xa u hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report Sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns In the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis After all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets That he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel And become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Okay, we're back folks with jeff huge of alpha insights jeff. How are you doing today my friend? I am doing well larry. Great to be here. Oh, it's great to have you here Now you're going to talk to us about the performance that has been going on in the market You want to explain to the folks what you're looking at here in this beautiful rainbow colored chart Yeah, you know, it's it's not gay pride week. It's just a very bifurcated market And uh, you know The reality the reality larry is this i mean, um, you know without technology The market would have been more or less flat for the month of march And without the impact of financials It would have been up a little bit more than it is but you know as it is The s&p closed around, you know plus 3.7 percent for the month of march But if you actually look at the equal weight index of the s&p, so every your takeaway the Supercap weighting that you give companies like apple and microsoft and just flatten it all out So everything's worth about, you know 20 basis points or something or few basis points That performance suggests that the average stock price was down 1.1 percent in march It's actually mind boggling to think about that Wow, and this is only the first trading day in april for heaven's sakes Wow, yeah, okay. No, let's let's move on. Let's move on to the next one about this participation that you've been watching uh in the market It'll just take me a second to get this up here so the folks can take a look. I love these charts Oh dear except that when I lost it hold on just a second I don't ever give an italian don't ever let an italian handle a mouse. I can promise you that that's not a good thing to do Okay, here we go. We've got it up here now and you'll be able to see it go right ahead The message here is really that the participation has been extraordinarily limited I mean it was companies like nvidia, which were up 90 percent meta platforms up 76 percent Year to date that have really been driving the first quarters performance, you know We know that the s and b500 was up 7.5 percent in the first quarter, but the average stock, you know, if this is a bull market That sounds great seven and a half percent, but the average stock's only up 2.4 percent So it's companies like meta and vidya tesla even apple amazon and microsoft and alphabets all had Outsized contributions and um, you know, that's what really drove the index has returned But what's interesting is if you look at kind of the inset that shows you what the valuations look like on those companies The average way or the weighted average pe multiple of the top seven stocks in the s and p500 is over 34 times Forward earnings. That's a pretty healthy price to pay And if you look at sales price to sales is over eight times that's four times higher than the market and um You know if we think about it from a forward price Uh earnings ratio to growth in other words is a peg ratio, which is a lot of way people want to justify it You know one times is considered normal. We're at 2.7 times on a peg ratio basis So, you know, we're at least almost three times overvalued where these stocks should be trading based on their growth rate Which isn't all that impressive these companies are expected to grow on average less than 12 percent over the next five years and so You know, I think that people are really paying a price for the performance in the first quarter And they may pay that price for the rest of the year on the downside Okay, now, let's take a look at the uh breath of the market boy that this is really a scary chart considering the fact that we've been up for you know since uh What october i mean, this is really an amazing thing We've been up for so many months and yet the breath is deteriorating that badly It is and in fact that you're looking at a four-year weekly chart here and the point of this chart is that We go back to the january 22 highs and we take a look at the down draft that we had in stocks into the lows Everything that we've seen since about may 1st has basically been a sideways market and you were talking about pennants I would call this something of a pennant. We would refer to it as a symmetrical triangle in elliott wave parlance And and we would count it from the first point at the top as being the a wave The second point at the bottom is the b wave Then there's a c wave at the top as we move closer to the right And a d wave at the bottom and this last little touch that we're just seeing right now is wave e That's the five point symmetrical triangle the next move should be the downside And you know one of the concepts from technical analysis that I recall from my cmt training Was that you know when you get into a lateral consolidation typically of the triangle variety The triangle tends to resolve in the direction of the prior trend and as we can see the prior trend was clearly down And my suspicion is that given this this narrowness of breadth the non-confirmation that we have in breadth And you know the breakdown in the equal weight s of p 500 versus the cap weight I think this is going to be a textbook Resolution to this thing to the downside and our view is that it can go meaningfully lower Well, let's uh boy that that breath is really scary. I We had bill meridian on a few weeks ago and he was saying that's pretty much the same thing that you were saying He said the breath is just historically looks absolutely horrible Now the next one we want to bring up to you and then we've got a break coming up is the The volatility says there's no fear and I can detest to that. There is no fear out there Hold on one second. No doubt People are They're running to you know, the the stocks that are that are working basically and uh, you know When you start piling into these names, it's consistent with the end and not the beginning And what we're looking at is you know historically going back the last year You can see that when the vix got down below 20 percent It was consistent with past highs in the s and p 500 when it got above 30 34 percent It was consistent with past lows this most recent pop up to around 31 percent didn't quite get to the prior high level And we got a little shallower low But uh, you know the rally that we're seeing isn't even hitting the february second high yet And we got all the way back down Stub 20 percent to get in the vix so my suspicion is that you know, this is marking an interim if not the top Before we see the next wave to the downside Okay, I have a I have a question. Uh, do you use uh algorithm algorithms? Uh algorithmic trading at all or How do you how do you enter your orders? Uh, someone's asking that question jeff Yeah, I am a swing trader and I enter them manually So, um, I do the homework, you know, usually the night before I know exactly what I'm going to buy I enter my orders before the open. I have limits, uh, where I'm going to buy in Uh, and I have limits where I'm going to get stopped out. So, um, you know, I know both ends of the market I know exactly how much I'm going to lose before I ever buy a stock And um, usually I have I'm a trend follower So I have some sense of where I think the stock can go But I don't sell unless it breaks trend and so I'll let them run as long as possible How long of how long of a what do you use for your trend? You just look at higher bottoms Lower tops that type of thing or do you have a you know, I have a multi multi, uh, discipline time frame So, uh, the shortest one would be a 21 day Moving average and when we close below the 21 day moving average that typically signals the first area to take Take a little off the table when we break the 55 day. I'm usually out Okay, that makes sense. Well, that's that's what makes you successful The fact that you follow what your risk is and not how much money you're going to make Because it's not how much money you make. It's how much money you don't lose. That's for sure We got a break here in about in about 30 seconds Let's give a little tiny commercial here for the next 30 seconds on how the folks can reach you and we'll do that again At the end of the show, but you have such a great letter. Tell the folks how they can reach you for that Jeff. Oh, here it is, you know, we Most of these charts are right from our uh, our newsletter which we publish at first of the month So you can always find that on sub stack Okay, we'll be right back with jeff huge awful insides folks You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman in your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed These newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio Get tom o'Brien's newsletter market insights today And try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors Biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade You or labd Directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear etfs Visit direction investments.com slash biotech today An investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services llc This program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz We have jeff huge of alpha insights on the lining. He's going to talk to us about that financial stress is reaching its limits Mine certainly is i don't know about yours Well, you know, um, the st. Louis sped has created an index that they call the financial stress index and it Includes a whole bunch of a whole cadre of of different relationships with interest rates and interest rate volatility And equity volatility and and looking at different indexes of financial stocks, etc So it's many overlays and and we show that in blue in this chart and then we overlay on top of that the vix index And I think what's interesting here is that, you know, we hit a level on um, uh, march 15th march 15th, I believe Or the week of march 15th, but it actually closed very near that level That has only been hit four other times in history That was first hit during the long-term capital management crisis in 1998 Then the 9 11 attacks in 2001 then the great financial crisis in 2008 And then finally the covid pandemic crisis in 2020 at each point where we've got above that level Which is about 1.50 is normal by the way 1.5 is basically one and a half standard deviations above normal We got above that the vix typically has soared either in advance or concomitantly with that move North of 40 typically before it reverses on a monthly closing basis But you know, I've just marked it here to look back and I think we are on the precipice of something that could ignite and move Substantially higher in terms of financial stress I've been digging deeply into what's going on in the banking industry and this crisis is much more Advanced than people think it is and there are many many more problems Well beyond the fed's capacity You can't you can't can't take commercial real estate collateral and deposit it with the fed and get liquidity And that's going to be a major problem in the very Near term and so, you know, my suspicion is that we are going to go on to see You know these things get a little bit out of control Well, I have to agree the reason why is I look at I'm not a stock trade at all But I look at the bank stocks to see how they react and they're not even bouncing I mean, you know, you get the stock market up three or four hundred points and that these banking stocks still go lower There's something wrong. You know, you can't you can't have a bull market when the bank stocks are making new lows Holy cow, that's just really amazing. That's just hard to believe. Holy cow Okay, let's move on to the next one and I will let the folks let you see what you're doing And we've got another break come over. Oh my goodness. Hold on just a second. I just got a notice on data Losing data. What is that going to mean? Okay, let's get over here and we'll come over here Bear with me I'm I'm I'm panicked here for a second because I got the wrong button on and I want to don't want to put up a Chart that we've previously seen. This is the one on Elliott wave analysis. So Yeah, we're just showing our our cycle degree and primary degree wave counts and cycle degrees at 13 year monthly view That goes all the way back to the 2009 lows and it shows that we're you know advancing in this kind of parallel trend channel But we're we're dancing right toward the razor's edge here in the lower boundary of that channel And it's our view that we are in the precipice of a big downward Wave in the stocks and if we look at the primary degree count on the right hand side We can see that count blown up as kind of a you know Primary wave one decline into the june low Primary wave two into the august high and then now we're subdividing Primary wave three and we've seen wave one down which bottomed in october and wave two up topped in february and february second and so we're now at minor degree And it looks like we're on the precipice of a third wave decline at three degrees of trend Which should carry the market all the way down into the mid 2000s bias and p terms Um, you know before it's over Wow, this is really This is really good stuff. I I like the way you you present the Elliott wave, you know, you're not you're not consumed with one threes and fives and all that I don't want to call it mickey mouse, but it's over my pay grade So I shouldn't really say anything at all spend like the guy said it's better to keep your mouth shut Me thought a fool and to open your mouth and remove all doubts So I don't want to do that road map It's a road map of where we've been and and that's predictive of where we're going And you know, we look at it on a shorter term basis You can kind of see that you know, we're kind of at the end of the rope here. I think Well today's high in the dow Jones industrial average within 10 points was the 61 percent retracement of the high we made in december of 2021 14 months 15 months ago So I to the it's almost to the tick. Well, I missed it by 10 points. So I guess you can't call it accurate But it's pretty close So what are you looking at? Yeah, it shows that we've rallied right into the top the upper boundary of a parallel trend channel And we were printing what looks to be kind of an evening star candle And it's right about where the 78.6 retracement of the decline from the february second high Into the march 13th below would be and so that's a perfect place for You know minor wave two at a top And if minor wave two is just top then we are in minor wave three down right now And if we break below say around 4000, that's pretty much where the 50 day exponential moving average And the lower boundary of that parallel trend channel converge I think once that's broken it will be an indication That wave minor wave three down is accelerating when we take out the december 22nd low Which was wave b of that counter trend advance off the october low that will confirm it And that will be kind of the point of recognition for most people out there that it is head for the hills And so that could be a men's ski moment if you will Now jeff that's a possibility of a head and shoulders pattern here I don't see it, but um, it's possible that you know once you don't see it Let's not worry too much about that and I think we have one more chart to go through if i'm not mistaken Or with that now here's a monthly newsletter. That's the most important chart of all that's your monthly newsletter So let's talk about that a little bit because yeah, you do a great job on this Well, thanks. I know you read it. You told me so and then we just published We just published the april issue on saturday april first We entitled it. This is no joke because it was april fool's day We didn't want people to think we were kidding But um, you can find this uh at huge insights about some sub stack dot com or you can go to My website, which is jwhinvestment.com or you can also find me on twitter at alpha underscore insights And the newsletter can be accessed at any of those places We give you a pretty good preview. You have about four or five pages of the newsletter It's about a 20 page long newsletter If you want to read the whole thing and see our full analysis You got upgrade to pay, but that's only $10 a month And so uh, it's not we're not charging an arm and a leg for what help as many as we can And I think it's a pretty good value. We've got almost a thousand paid subscribers right now. So You know, I guess people like it and uh, we put a lot of work into it This was the best This was the best description of what the fed is doing of any letter that I've seen and I I look at bits and pieces But I read it through completely And it is a really concise way of what the federal reserve is doing and what they've done in the past if you're interested in that Contact jeff because it's uh, it's really you give a good description of what's really happened And many people don't understand mortgage backed securities and real estate loans and stuff like that and you do a good job of Telegraph listen, we're gonna have you on again soon my friend Okay, thanks larry. It's great for you to have me on. I really appreciate it. Thank you very much I'll look forward to talking to you soon. Have a happy Easter. You bet you too. We love you buddy. Keep it up All right, we'll be right back boys and girls eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter You should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals Sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today Visit the front page of tfnn.com Tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv Okay, folks, there are two charts to pay attention to today The one I just posted here is the one of the E-mini s and p showing you that this uh, just take a look at this This number up here was 4158 The high was 4157 and three quarters So we missed that one that fibonacci number didn't work And the other one was the dow Jones industrial average And we'll get that one up here to let you folks take a look at that one because this one didn't work either Here's the dow Jones going back to the december 2,021 high 14 months ago and the high today in the dow Jones industrial average was 38,000 No wait not 38,000 33,826 and the number supposed to be 38,828 it missed it by two dow points or basically 10 dollars So neither one of those numbers worked now if they get above those numbers That means the market's going to go substantially higher one would think wouldn't one But who knows we're going to do one step at a time here These patterns are good for failures. They're good for determining what the markets can do But they can do it within limits only folks. They failed They fail some of the time about 30 of the time they fail The other part of the time you have some break even and you have a few winners along the way But that's what we're paying attention to are these two numbers today in the dow Jones industrial average 33,820 and also the e-mini s and p at 4158 The high being 4157 and three quarters, which is pretty close to being where it should be Okay, the fact is when I sent the video out last night, I said You'd break even now you move your stop down to a 31, excuse me, 4155 and you make a couple of bucks Hey, let's take a break. We'll see you on the next show We'll be coming up in about seven minutes. We'll be right back