 Welcome traders to another Tick Meal weekly market outlook with me, Patrick Munley. The week commencing Monday the 5th of July. The dollar has enjoyed a strong start to July and a healthy due non-farm payrolls release. It should keep the dollar bid against the low yielders at least. Though the unemployment rate was higher than expected, progressing jobs gains will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve and likely to keep US monetary policy rates biased towards the 2022 rate hike. The Suggish dollar performance Friday probably owed to profit taking ahead of the Independence Day holiday and some larger FX options expires. US trading will be quiet in a holiday short and weak. The calendar is pretty light with the highlight probably being the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Much focus will be given to how the Dubs and Hawks are arguing their cases, especially seven members casting their dots for the first rate hike in 2022. The international focus will be on whether the G20 on Friday formally signs off on a new global minimum tax standard. Also be interested in Chinese cash and PMI readings on Wednesday and inflation readings on Friday. On the latter investors will examine whether there remains a gulf between the PPI and CPI 9% year of year versus 1.3% respectively. Meaning that Chinese policymakers will do their utmost to limit input prices. So from a technical perspective, the dollar put in a reversal into the close on Friday and I'm looking for a pullback now into test the monthly pivot at 91.50 as support. From there look for bullish reversal patterns to realign on the long side looking for the equality objective up to 93.73 and potentially the yearly pivot just above at 94.14. At this stage only a loss of the 90.50 level would suggest an early resumption to the downtrend. In terms of the Euro for the week ahead the European data calendar is very light indeed with focus on more investor confidence surveys. CENTIX Monday at ZEW Tuesday and on Wednesday the release of the European Commission summer forecast. These presumably should see growth upgrades. Germany will on Wednesday see main industrial production expected to rebound in line with better sentiment indicators. Some improvements in the hard data could provide the Euro with a little support early in the week. So the Euro put in a reversal on Friday into the close there. So I'm looking for a corrective move up into test the monthly pivot at 1.19.80 to the 1.20 area. Watch for bearish reversal patterns here to set short positions targeting the equality objective down to 1.16.25. At this stage really it would take a close above monthly range resistance at 1.22.20 and the descending train line resistance to refocus on the upside. The Yen looks to be taking a breather ahead of multi-year resistance around the 1.12.20 area. It's hard to see US rates coming off too sharply from current levels and the Yen may well have built a new floor in the 1.10.40 area. There may not be enough in the calendar to drive the Yen through 1.12.20 in the week ahead but should say reasonably well bid. Lastly we were focusing on the release of the GPIF annual report and indeed it was very impressive returning 25% in the Japanese fiscal year to March 21. Portfolio allocation for the world's largest pension fund is always a hot topic and there will be some quite big changes in the quarter to March. Foreign bond holidays were cut to 24.6% sorry, foreign bond holdings were cut to 24.6% from 25.7% was the GPIF behind the 10-year US Treasury sell-off, who knows. While both foreign and domestic equity allocations were cut below the 25% benchmark big winners with domestic bonds increased to 25.9% from 23.6% and more conservative stance for the GPIF. So from a technical perspective whilst anticipating a pullback to test the monthly pivot here at 1.10.40 the bullish reversal patterns there set long positions targeting move up into monthly range resistance at 1.12.86 from there we may see a more protracted correction. At this stage only a loss of the 1.10.30 would suggest that we're looking at a deeper corrected pattern here and we could start to think about a retest of 1.09 from above. In terms of sterling it's been a rather eventful week for the pound and the EU granted a delay to the chill meat ban in Northern Ireland temporarily calming market concerns about an escalation in trade tensions. Still it appears that strong political divergence has persist and the risk for a new round of tough EU-UK trade negotiations later in the year is very high. Domestically Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned against overreacting to temporary inflation pressures prompting some repricing and tightening expectations. Overall pound has held up better than most of its G10 peers in the dollar's appreciating trend which also denotes how the market continues to see the recent sharp rise in delta variant cases in the UK as unlikely to derail the country's economic recovery. The week ahead data releases should not be the main drivers and focus will likely be on another speech by Andrew Bailey as well as any headlines from Angela Merkel's visit to the UK. As long as the UK government does not suggest that the rising cases will postpone the reopening further there are a few reasons for the market to turn more bearish on the pound compared to G10 peers. So from a technical perspective currently in a nice reversal on Friday we'll move up now to test the monthly pivot at £139.50 From there I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns to see a test down to the pivotal £136.74. At this stage only a close above £140.80 would refocus on upside objectives through the price cycle highs of £142.44. Lastly the Aussie dollar was one of the main victims of the dollar rapidly last week dropping in line with most reciprocal currencies. Now the focus shift to the Pivotal Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday. Based on recent communications by the RBA Governor there are four main options for the bank as it's set out to readjust its constitutive easing. Firstly ceasing asset purchases second repeating a 100 billion Aussie dollar asset purchase scheme for six months and then reviewing it or thirdly conducting a smaller amount like a 50 billion Aussie dollar of purchase for six months and then reviewing or repeating 100 billion Aussie dollars for a longer period than six months. Markets expect the RBA to go for the second option which will allow them to steer away from the tapering narrative while adopting a more data dependent approach. If anything I think this option three option three is the second most likely although that would likely be seen by markets as a hawkish shift I think that re-pricing is standing somewhere or sorry market pricing really standing somewhere between option two and three which means that the base case materializes further 100 billion Aussie 100 billion Aussie dollars for six months the impact on the Australian dollar could be negative more crucially I think the RBA will not follow other developed central banks since signaling a rate hike in 2022 and markets may be forced to reprise some of their hawkish expectations which could add pressure to the Aussie dollar so from a technical perspective I'm looking for the Aussie to trade up into the monthly pivot 75-80 watch with bearish reversal patterns in this zone to set short positions targeting the equality objective down to 74-20 at this stage really it would take a close through the 77 handle to suggest a return or an early return to the uptrend targeting the range resistance at 78-90 that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 5th of July it's always traders plan the trade, trade the plan most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much