 Okay, good morning all. This is Jasper Lawlor, market analyst here starting our weekly charting and analysis webinar. Now I'm going to just give you a little time to look through our risk warning here. Now what I thought might be a more interesting way of doing things today is that typically what I'll do is run through some of the overall fundamentals of the market and then look through the charts of some of the major markets that we cover that clients are interested in. Today I thought I would just go straight into the charts and try and cover the fundamentals and the technicals all together in one market. Obviously towards the end some of these kind of global factors are going to affect multiple markets and it's not going to be necessary to repeat over and over but I thought that might just be a bit more of an interesting way of doing it and let's see how it works out. So I think probably where we'll start is I have my pages split up here in terms of asset class and the first page I have is just the indices. So let's have a look at the UK 100. Now this is the always good to flip onto the longer term chart and just see where we generally are. The market is generally being supported by this line at the moment. Obviously there are different indicators that you can look at. You can see that's pretty nice lines. That's sort of five odd touches on the trend line here. So that's kind of supporting the general higher buyers and prices. But what you can also see is that in May last year we made this high close to 6,900 and even though we were hovering above this trend line, we really haven't got above it. That 6,900 is a real tricky one for the FedC and it's struggling with that. We can see things in a bit more detail in the daily chart. Now we've got this top trend line. What potentially could be worrying is that we had three touches. That's quite a reliable line. This latest correction that we're seeing has not actually made it to that line. Now perhaps if you draw the line differently, what you can actually draw is through the closes. You could argue it's got a bit closer but really still not touched it. I personally like through the highs on this occasion the best. So that's what we could be seeing there is failure to reach the top of this range could be pointing towards a break in this lower trend line. Now it has touched five times already as we saw in that weekly chart. So six times of touching is pushing how much support it can offer and you could see a break there. Now you're very wondering why is the FedC doing this when we look at the Germany 30. That made a new all-time high at 10,000 last week. We'll look at the chart of that next. But why is the FedC not doing that? Well paradoxically it could be because the UK economy is actually doing the best. And so it's expected to be the first G7 nation to raise interest rates. And higher interest rates are generally speaking not good for stocks. As you can all see we've been in a major bull market for stocks, especially in America. Since the Federal Reserve in the US, the Bank of England, DCB have been having rates at low levels. It makes investments cheaper and it makes stocks relatively more attractive than other asset classes versus bonds for example where you're just not going to earn such a high interest, such a high rate. Interestingly again we'll look at the DAX chart for this. But the DAX made new all-time highs in and around the time DCB announced further monetary easing. Whereas the Bank of England, Governor Mark Carney has come out and said that actually a rate hike in the UK may come sooner than market expectations. So that's quite a stark contrast there. One is engaging in a new easing policy. The other is saying that tightening is going to happen. Higher interest rates are going to happen quicker. So that could be a good part of the explanation as to why the FTSE has been underperforming. Another factor is the high concentration of mining stocks and the recent underperformance of the Chinese economy. We can get into that a bit more in a minute as well. Technically though on this daily chart what I've got is this sloping down RSI trend line here. You can see that's kind of matched here but we've failed so far to get to this trend line again. What we could be looking at is another further dip down here. Possibly just to touch that line we'll possibly get down to a sort of oversold time level. So far, a few lines going on here. What we've got is this rally and we've seen a correction down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. What we could be looking at is a touchdown towards this high here and this consolidation area here at the top of it which corresponds to the 50% retracement or perhaps more significantly down to the 61.8% Fibonacci and it coincides with the 200 day moving average and this rising trend line. So really this is the kind of ultimate support that we're looking at and that's obviously as prices go sideways that's going to kind of drift higher towards this sort of 6650 type area. So that looks like a distinct possibility especially if this candle for today closes out the way it's looking at the moment. Perhaps a bit lower below the previous two days is open. That would be a bearish and gold from candlestick and that would be a good symbol fitting alongside this RSI of further weakness and the prices. So obviously just below that 21 day moving average as well. If we dip down to four hour chart, these are some lines to be paying attention to. So you can see this level here, the sort of 6775 type area, that's already kind of worked where what we're looking at is here's a swing high made there. Brakes touches down so it's already worked once, moved higher and then we failed to get above this high. Hence this big move down. We've come and touched this level which corresponds to this swing high here. Now this level could work again but typically they won't work twice. These kind of small areas like this. And so then the next level we're looking down is back at this 38.2% retracement of that longer term rally. Now the price is moving up here. If you have got a kind of bearish bias, this is looking a bit the other way around. There's a breakthrough there. That breaks through that level, comes back touches that level, bounces higher, comes down and now we'll come back to that level again which is kind of proved pivotal in these last couple of swings. So it could be there. That does leave us a bit exposed to the kind of risk up to here. So then what it potentially could be is back up to the average here and the breakdown that occurred through this long channel and really up and close near to these highs would be obviously be the safe area to enter any kind of shorts. Just in terms of a risk-to-risk award perspective you could have a short stop above here somewhere and turn down. But there is a distinct risk this pit area could work again. I've got some note here of some lost sound. Could anyone else in the room confirm that they can still hear me? Send a quick chat through it. Yep, can hear me. Okay, good. Thanks guys. Let's slip over to the DAX. Again, have a look at this weekly chart. Slightly more bullish looking scenario than the FTSE, but again, a sort of nice trend line. Give us some kind of overall background to where we are. You've got to think that while we're above this trend line, we're not going to see thousands of point declines. It's not possible staying above this trend line and seeing a multiple point decline. So entering short trades up here, you're just going against the trend and there's no real confirmation the trend has reversed just yet. So obviously it could work out perfectly if you pick the top, especially around numbers like 10,000. That kind of stuff can work, but there's not really enough supporting evidence at this point. With the ECB supportive monetary policy, even though we're seeing some pretty weak data, for example today we had the services and manufacturing PMIs out of France and Germany both missed expectations. France has fallen back into contraction below the 50 level that you look for in these PMIs and Germany looks like it's sort of plateauing a bit in terms of its growth. It's still expanding, but just a few indicators suggesting it's slowing down. A big one that definitely I recommend you pay attention to for trading the DAX. I told you that the Germany 30 and for trading the euro tomorrow is the IFO survey because that's given us an idea of business sentiment. It's supposed to be forward looking and so if German companies are confident about the future and that's going to be a good reading, I suspect it may slightly miss expectations as this reported today. I certainly could be wrong there, but that would be in line with the overall trend as to what's happening with German data. Obviously, there's always exceptions. Now, if we dig down to the details here, any of you that attended the last seminar you would have known that I mentioned these levels before, basically based on this. This is the kind of consolidation area. Now, arguably what kind of pattern you want to call this? Sort of a triangle, but really more like a, in a greater context, you have a line down here as a kind of wedge. I just kind of said, well, whatever this kind of consolidation is, calling that below. And then this trend line looks pretty reliable. You know, one, two, three, four, five touches break, touch back down again. So that is kind of a high and then projecting from this area. What we got was a 50% area that was touched. That coincided around the 10,000 level. Saw a few, kind of close a bit above it, but it has worked quite well. Fight down here today down to 38.2 and then back again. Now, obviously Friday's candle is fairly bearish. You know, that's a shooting style right there. So moved higher, closed back down below the level. And today we're seeing a kind of bearish action. But picking up again, if we just draw in this level here, you can see it kind of corresponded with a few kind of closes. The closes here, drop down, close back up at it above. Now working again, corresponds with that kind of level. So that's working for the time being. This right where we are now, can't see us at all in the day. Let's flip down to the four hour. You can see this was the kind of sharp breakdown area from earlier today. And we're right back at it. You know, theoretically this would be a possible entry area. You know, looking at kind of risks up towards the top. But given the strength of this reversal, I'm not sure you'd want to be going short at this point in time. You certainly could, of course you always can. But these kind of long wicks are generally showing some kind of aggressive buying up from these levels. Even though still quite a long bearish candle stick, that's not something you immediately want to go against. So a bit of caution warranted there. Looks like, you know, obviously as we were discussing, it's a long-term uptrend. So probably the bias is, you know, having bought down there, pushing up for a new high again, perhaps up to the 61.8% type level. Even though we did see this bearish candle, it's against the general context of things. We'll have to see how today's candle stick plays out, what might be the safer move. If it kind of closes lower down here again, there isn't such an extreme reversal on the daily candle stick. That could, you know, close below the 21 day moving average because it gives us a bit more confidence that this is going to come down towards here and maybe break lower. Okay, let's flip over to, oh, wrong with 30. Now, this is the US 30, kind of two trend lines to bear in mind here. Pretty strongly rising market as you, I think you'll all agree. And really this bottom trend line is the main one we need to be concerned about. Now, the reason a few people are kind of, there's a lot of trepidation about going along the market right now is just because we're so far above this 200 week moving average and we're pretty far above the 200 day moving average and we're pretty far above this main trend line here. You know, once you get a correction down towards here, then you can sort of feel like it's a buying opportunity, but while it's climbing right into the top, you've got obviously some downside risk all the way down to here, let alone anything larger. Now, the key line in the sun for a while had been this sort of 16600 and then just after that 16730-ish. Now, what I've done here is similar to the other chart where this is a Fibonacci extension just using this rising correction here. And you can see it sort of vaguely worked out. We've got this 161.8 level that's played off so far and come back and corrected down to this high, no surprise, back up to the high again. So, you know, obviously with the benefit of hindsight, also quite clear levels where it's been turning, this would obviously be an obvious level for it to turn again, some kind of short-term double top, but Friday's candlesticks not really particularly indicative of that and obviously we're going against this huge long-term trend. So, going short, a little bit risky. What I had here in terms of potential buying levels would be a more aggressive area here, fitting alongside this 21-day moving average. And they could see it corresponds to these highs here and you've got a low here, which corresponds with a 50% retracement of this rally. And then we've got this peak here. So, that corresponds with the 61.8% of natural retracement. So, if you did have some kind of bullish bias in the market and you weren't convinced this was going to be some kind of double top down towards here, obviously here would be kind of a lowest risk area, particularly if you're having a stop in this kind of vicinity down here, but these are some potentials on the way up. Generally, the safer levels are where there's some kind of confluence. So, here we do have confluences at both these levels. This one, by the average, and it was quite a serious level, but arguably, it didn't quite make it down there on that first dip. So, that could still work out. But in the US, obviously, fundamentally, we've got the Federal Reserve reiterating sort of easy monetary policy, especially in the face of rising inflation, which we can talk about a bit more. The Euro-US dollar chart really counts. They basically, in the Fed, they basically sort of maintained their guidance, forward guidance for when interest rates might rise. They've not given explicit date, but they've not really changed their rhetoric in their recent statements, the one from last week, namely, to help markets decide that actually a rate hike might come sooner or later. So, that said, in the context of higher inflation, it's almost like their policy has become even more easy, and that's something we can talk about a bit more when we look at this gold chart, just because that's really one of the biggest reasons why we've seen this huge rally in gold. It's just because it almost seems like the Fed are ignoring potential higher inflation and keeping interest rates low, but that's been good for stocks. That's why we've seen this big rally here. So, in that context, of course we can have some exogenous shocks from the likes of Iraq and Ukraine, but generally speaking, that's what's holding these markets up. It's just this really low guidance for interest rates from the US Fed. Things to look out for this week, I would be paying most attention to the consumer confidence out tomorrow and then the durable goods is out on Wednesday. Obviously, have a look at our economic calendar and just set yourself some alerts up for later in the week. This is the IFO tomorrow. You probably want to be... I mean, looking at all these future expectations as well as current conditions, they're both going to play into it. That's been a general theme for the IFO, actually, where the consensus is that right now it's okay, but not so good for the future. And then you can see the consumer confidence. Just set yourself an alert. That will pop up when it's happening, obviously. Now, since I was just talking about gold, let's have a look at that. It's probably the most fun market for trading last week, given the strength of the moves that we saw. Now, this is the kind of greater context of things is that we've got this strong supportive level down about 1, 180. So this move last week sort of implies like this is going to hold. So we've kind of broadly been in this 1,200 to 1,400 range. So this action sort of implies that, well, that was the last place we touched. Actually, 1,400 was the last place we touched. But it sort of looks like we're not hitting 1,200 again. We're actually moving more towards 1,400. Now, here's the move in a bit more detail. Now, I was actually surprised that we didn't see it. I'm generally quite positive on gold, given the kind of easy central bank policy. But I was surprised that given the height of this triangle pattern that was so well-defined, that we didn't see a slightly larger move down to about 1,225. I was sort of anticipating around these kind of lows. We haven't seen it, and that does show a lot of strength. And then this is obviously a brutal move higher that we saw on Thursday. And it's put us above these highs here. That's where we found support for the moment, just to this sort of 3,10-type area. Could see a bigger correction. I mean, gold is a volatile pair. It doesn't go up and down in straight line. So we could see about move down to this kind of consolidation area, which is basically sort of either side of 1,300 or 1,295, is an area I'm looking at just where all these short candlesticks were taking place before this big drop-off. And then just with this other same idea that we've been using before, where this is the high break touch. So that's a possibility. But it's certainly a risky move, I would suggest, even if you thought it was getting down to there, to actually short it down to there, because we're just going against this strong momentum. See if there's any detail to be had here. You can just sort of see. I mean, it really does not much to add support below there unless you're drawing some kind of Fibonacci or using these previous levels over here, which I think could play out. Now with gold, obviously there's been, I was kind of boosted by two things last week. There's kind of flight to safety because of the troubles in Iraq and the threat to oil prices. But I think more big of the point I was referencing before is this U.S. Federal Reserve policy sort of almost seemingly ignoring higher inflation in the U.S. and keeping their guidance for interest rates low. And so that's, I think, going to be supported for gold. So we could see some kind of, you know, if things stabilized a bit in Iraq, we could see a drop-off a bit. But I think this kind of move suggests that we're generally positive in gold. I would argue perhaps more of a buy-in dips type set up than expecting a big sharp correction down lower again. But obviously it could be wrong on that. Let's have a look at oil. That's obviously been the other big market. It's been making big moves. We have to trade Brent and Crude. This is the weekly chart. You can see it's quite significant where we've broken from in this Iraqi crisis, broken out of this real long-term since March 2012 kind of triangle pattern that's just in place there. Ideally, we would have broken more like over here because this is about two-thirds of the way through. And we didn't, and we went right into the apex, which suggests probably the breakout is not going to be as large as it potentially could have been. But theoretically, we could see this whole height of this triangle projected up here to put us up to around $140, $150 an hour. That's not my default scenario. And we're seeing this trend line kind of coming into effect today cause we kind of drop off towards the end of last week and just see it come off again a bit today. And there's obviously overbought down at this 7 to 11 on the weekly chart. Could provide us an opportunity for buying in expecting a break of that line. The obvious level would be these two eyes over here, kind of generally corresponding with that or possibly down as low as this. That to me would be the obvious point if we even get that low. I think, if that's sort of fundamentally with this whole situation in Iraq, I think what we're looking at is a sort of potential versus actual supply disruptions. At the moment, the market's pricing the potential disruptions and even though we're seeing these SUNY militants making more and more progress towards getting towards Baghdad, we haven't actually seen the supply disruptions take place yet. So it might require the actual disruption of oil out of Iraq to see high prices up and above $120 on Brent. WTI, similar looking situation. Here's the consolidation we had on the daily chart. Broke above this $105 level. Touch back down, which is kind of a good corrective move. You can zoom in a bit there. See, we've got a kind of doji slash hammer pattern off that former area. Now we're pushing into the highs again. WTI has not been quite as strong on the breakout as crude and I think that just boils down to the fact that you've got these higher supplies coming out of US. Obviously US producers own oil these days and WTI is more reflective of conditions in the US whereas Brent is more of a sort of global index for oil. Now let's have a look at currencies. FYI, I haven't added any of these charts to the chart forum yet but I will make sure to do so after the webinar. So if you've got your own charts, perfect obviously, but now some beauty in this platform is you can just use the chart forum here and add some of these ideas. Just do the analysis and just choose to keep it if it makes some sense to you. Let's have a look at the euro. Again, let's have a look at the weekly chart to give us that broader context. Now we're still above, this has not really been confirmed. This trend line yet, it's just two touches so it's not necessarily going to be that significant but it is on a weekly chart so it's something that people are clearly going to have this line drawn on the chart. Whether it proves enough to kind of halt this decline remains to be seen. But so far we've been touching the top of the top line so still suggestive that even though this top line has been kind of coming in a bit flat, we could still see another jump up to the top of the trend line again there. Yeah, I mean this obviously the rundown that we had from 140 down to 135 so it's entirely at the hands of the ECB and the President Mario Draghi firstly mentioning that they will likely do action at the June meeting and then actually carrying out some stimulus measures at the meeting. It's a little bit questionable. Obviously the intent is there from the central bank but whether the actual measures themselves the negative deposit rate, the sterilization of S&P purchases the kind of semi-QE that the bank does already not offsetting that with other transactions they stop that program and then there's an TL, TRO, a sort of cheap loan to banks but that doesn't take place till September. So it sort of looks like this the actual effects on the market on the European economy if there is any effect are not taking place just yet and so we may see the euro hold above on 30 for the time being and it does correspond with this rising trend line that we've got potentially so we may see 135 actually as a base for the time being and we saw that strong reversal there and it hasn't made it through since. We'll back up to this reversal area we've kind of broke through there touched back on it and what we could see if we do see it move higher back up to this breakdown area this I think is maybe a bit too close to be relevant and there was a lot of consolidation in this area so that does fit in with the 137 round number but since we didn't quite touch there then it's not going to be much of a gain above sort of feel like here would be another level for people to push it towards and then should that fail then then we're actually looking back towards this zone up here where we saw this sharp move lower off the top of that kind of wedge higher trend line but for the time being it is forming lower highs and lower lows arguably this is a higher low if you count that as one and that's another so then a break above here would be a reversal of this short term downtrend okay we'll come in towards the end of the webinar here hopefully you've got a bit of time to cover the pound let's just have a look at weekly chart not such a nice looking rising trend line possible on the pound through here I've done it but it did kind of break through it and move higher again anyway so it's quite a kind of bullish sign to the pound but generally it's moving higher because of the prospect of higher interest rates so people move their money into currencies to earn the highest possible interest rate and potentially that could be there in the UK going forward if the Bank of England raise rates at the end of this year or maybe early next year in terms of levels 170 was where we banged into first that's obviously a round number and then 170.50 was this 14-year high if we look back on the monthly chart I suppose I should have looked at and corresponds with BSEO you can see this level is pretty massive and it wouldn't be too surprising if we did see a big large correction from here but we did see a correction there we've made it above there we'll have to see how this price action plays out a close for the week and then the month above 170.50 would be key short term we've just got a few levels in here based on these highs and lows and a potential break of an RSI level here with a divergence possibly indicates off this 170.50 which is such a major level possibly we're going to see a break now probably the confirmation might come from a break of this kind of line here only two touches on it now but perhaps an idea that this RSI line is going to break that up okay I'm going to stop the recording now and then should we have any questions we can cover them after that