 This is the SF Productions podcast network It's the fifth annual Oscar prediction show From the pop culture bunker I'm maybe and I'm mark you can check out our audio podcast how I got my way three comics and iTunes or in our website SF podcast network calm. It's that time again Oscar predictions, and we make predictions having seen two Yeah, we don't see any of the nominated films we saw a lot of land well We also saw Florence Foster. That's true. That's true And we see who won the awards leading up to the Oscars, and then who gets the most buzz is our is our method With a couple other things right we have some rules if you're died if you died you're in Biopics rule Portraying an illness works well if you have multiple nominations without a win that helps the Susan Lucci rule We will list Also list previous Oscar record. We're applicable So if an actress has nominations before or wins before We'll list that as well as odds as of February 4th. We're taping this a little bit in advance Based on an average score from nicer odds dot co dot UK So saying what the betting line is for a particular people starting with supporting actor Marisha Lee who got zero nominations never been nominated and Is currently going at one-to-one odds For the film moonlight right and he has already won the critics choice the New York Critics Choice the SAG award And our pick and our pick because we're going with that as well Yeah, there's just no way to vote against him the other nominees Jeff Bridges for Helen Highwater, right? Lucas hedges for Manchester by the sea Dev Patel for lion and Michael Shannon for nocturnal animals All are good, but you know, they just haven't gotten the attention that this movie has got right Moving on to supporting actress By all the Davis who's been nominated twice no wins at one-to-one odds Naomi Harris No nominations 15 to one odds to Cole Kinman three nominations one win 12 to one odds Octavia Spencer one to one win one nomination 51 to one odds and Michelle Williams with three nominations no wins 10 to one odds. So there's a couple things that come into play in this category First of all Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer are both black actresses and You know, you would think oh with the Oscars so white thing Maybe one of them will win right, but I think they're gonna split. Oh That's not that's not a bad point. Yeah, that you might see a split there And I think it's gonna be Michelle Williams in Manchester by the sea She's been nominated before and hasn't won. Yeah, actually three times is not one. Yes And now I'm not saying anything as to who's deserving in this because I have not seen any of the movie Hey, I do not know who was the best supporting actress I am just going by statistics what I'm thinking. Yeah, and I actually picked Viola Davis She won Golden Globes and critics choice, but Michelle Williams won New York critics choice. So It's yeah, and I can see the split. I think that's I think that's not a bad theory Animated movie Kubo and the two strings at seven point five to one Moana at twenty one to one my life is a zucchini forty one to one The red turtle forty one to one and Zootopia at one point one to one and Zootopia has won every everything So it's pretty much a lot. There is no Pixar movie. No, there. Yeah, no Pixar movie Finding Dory did not get nominated original song Audition the fools who dream from La La Land at six to one Can't stop the feeling from trolls at 15 to one Oh, I just can't see them giving anything to the movie troll. No, no City of stars from La La Land 1.1 to 1 the empty chair from Jim the James Foley story at 31 to one And how far I'll go for Moana at six to one and the only one of those songs You really hear very much of in play. I think is City of Stars Right, and it won Golden Globe and Critics Choice. So that's pretty much a lot for for both of us Director Mel Gibson who's been nominated twice and won twice For hacksaw Ridge, but both times he won were before his meltdown, right? Yes, and that's why it's a 34 to one odds for him Barry Jenkins never nominated for a moonlight at seven to one Kenneth Lonegrin for Manchester by the sea. He has been nominated twice, but hasn't won nine to one Dennis Villeneuve from a rival has never been nominated eight point four to one and Damian Chazelle from La La Land first-time nomination One to one odds He's won the Golden Globe. He's won the Critics Choice. He just won the director's Guild The only one he didn't one of the majors was New York Critics Choice and We're both going with that. I think he'll probably win, but right best actor Casey Affleck one nomination no wins Manchester by the sea 1.5 to 1 Andrew Garfield Hacksaw Ridge has not been nominated 34 to 1 Ryan Gosling one nomination no wins for La La Land But he did win for Golden Globe for La La Land. Right, but he's 13 to 1 Viggo Mortensen one nomination no wins for Captain Fantastic 67 to 1 and Denzel Washington He's been nominated six times one twice for fences two to one odds now the odds Barely say Casey Affleck. However There's the whole controversy going on about Casey Affleck right now about some sexual misconduct and So while he won Golden Globe he won Critics Choice and he won New York's Critics Choice He did not win the SAG award. That was won by Denzel Washington and Based solely on the controversy with Casey Affleck, I'm going with Denzel. I picked Denzel too Best actress Isabel Hubert Zero nominations for L 9 to 1 odds Ruth Negga no nominations for Loving 26 to 1 odds Natalie Portman two nominations one win for Jackie 44.5 to one odds Emma Stone one nomination no wins La La Land 1.2 to one odds and Meryl Streep 19 nominations three wins Florence Foster Jenkins 41 to 1 odds I picked Meryl, and you know why why I picked her because of her Golden Globe speech. Oh Okay, that Trump said she was underrated. Oh that might and I think that's gonna prompt every single person in Hollywood to vote for Meryl Streep and At this point Emma Stone is quite young. She'll have plenty of opportunities See, I I went for Emma Stone, but I can see I can definitely see your theory making sense Even though Meryl did not get any of the major awards You know Emma Stone got the Golden Globe And the SAG Natalie Portman got Critics Choice Isabel Hubert got the New York Critics Choice and also the Golden Globe because they give it to both the What is it the dramatic and the comedic? Yeah But I really I really think that they're gonna Make a statement about Meryl. I think that makes sense. I wish I wish I thought of that. Hmm. You may have that Moving on finally to best picture Arrival 101 to one odds. Yeah, that's never gonna win fences 51 to one odds Hacksaw Ridge at 51 to one odds. Hell or high water at 101 to one odds Hidden fences they figures 13 to one odds La La Land at 1.1 to one odds Lion at 67 to one odds Manchester by the sea at 11 to one odds and Moonlight at 6 to one odds now. Let's go. We give our predictions. Here's who won what? Okay, La La Land won The Golden Globe the Critics Choice the Producers Guild and the prestigious Central Ohio Film Critics Choice Hidden figures won the SAG Award Moonlight also won Golden Globe because they were in different categories credit comedy versus drama With all that being said We're both going with La La Land So we we agree on a lot of stuff and we don't look at each other's information You know our decisions our predictions beforehand. No, but we just happened to pretty much go pretty much lockstep for a lot of this You know the Meryl Screep one, you know is is is out of is out of That lockstep, but we shall see It's always interesting to be completely wrong with your So you can watch the Oscars when we do but in the meantime you can check out our audio podcast How I got my wife tree comics on iTunes or on our website as a podcast network From the pop culture bunker. I'm in and I'm Mark. Thanks for watching Oscar Oscar who will win