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Published on Jan 13, 2014
The alternative method for Monte Carlo risk analysis (as opposed to applying uncertainties) is to assign risks from your risk register to your project schedule and costs. RiskyProject has an integrated risk register that allows you to assign risk outcomes - probabilities and impacts - to your project, which we refer to as Event Chain methodology.
This is the preferred method of quantitatively assessing risk in projects especially in circumstances where you have limited analogous historical data that can be used for risk estimates. The reason for this is that people generally have very limited ability to estimate at the boundaries or limits of the uncertainties. Whereas, we vcan be quite accurate at estimating what the most likely duration will be, we do much more poorly when attempting to estimate worst case and best values. The result is that we end up with unrealistic and generally too optimistic estimates for our projects.
Using risks to model project uncertainty will generally lead to better forecasts as people are much better at understanding how a risk will impact a project if it occurs.
For more information how to perform schedule risk analysis using RiskyProject software please visit Intaver Institute web site: http://www.intaver.com.
About Intaver Institute. Intaver Institute Inc. develops project risk management and project risk analysis software. Intaver's flagship product is RiskyProject: project risk management software. RiskyProject integrates with Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, other project management software or can run standalone. RiskyProject comes in three configurations: RiskyProject Lite, RiskyProject Professional, and RiskyProject Enterprise.