 The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis We're gonna take a look at the German Dax like we usually do as you can see We have a potential for a little bottom coming in here in the German Dax And if we take over the pond just a little bit farther. We will take a look here at the footsie We'll get this up here and take a look at it. Hold on one second and We'll have Stan Harley will be our guest at the break folks. That's always good. So we'll have a lot of fun doing that Okay, let's take a look at This chart of the footsie folks. This had a big gap here on the 16th You know, we filled that gap and now we're coming down There's a slight three drive to a bottom pattern there on footsie But this chart is looking pretty badly and the main reason is you'll see that three drive to a top pattern that happened on the 23rd, so that's a very important thing to look at so The main thing is, you know, yesterday we looked at that NASDAQ pattern that was completing on the daily basis it it worked pretty well And you know, we were having big diverges between the Dow Jones and the s&p And folks, let me let me give you a couple of numbers here You know, I talk about the open interest quite a bit, but The open interest in the s&p Going back over the last seven days was roughly Around 3.2 million now we're at 2.6 million. We lost 600,000 contracts when the market was going straight up folks. That's short covering There's no other way to describe it. You know, that's that's exactly what's happened And it's also the same thing in the NASDAQ the Dow Jones and the Russell all of them lost open interest So this was not This was just a short covering rally that we've had over these last eight days And I'm just looking at the open interest on me and watching the patterns too But those are just some of the things that you have to to look at remember I don't look at fundamentals. I don't look at, you know, any oscillators or anything I just look at market feedback and what the patterns doing and when I try to get that That's what gives me the slight edge that you have when you're trading You know, yesterday was a was a very good day because we had the Top of the gold market pretty nicely and the NASDAQ worked pretty good And also the crude oil was working pretty good, but not all the times do those things work You know, the key is it, you know, you got to pick the ones that work the best and that's it If you have any questions this morning, it's 877-978-779276648 We've got a question here from Bob a huge corn crop coming with no demand Most negative corn market in 15 to 20 years. The funds have been short for months Yes, there is a little huge short position that we have a position on in wheat Right now it had a seven cent profit. Now it has a two cent loss. We're risking We're only risking on that trade around 300. No, well It's $250. So I I don't know but that that's not unusual for to have crops having really bad Reports because look what's happened to corn. You know, it's been going down quite a bit Now I will wait till after the The report comes out before I, you know, look to buy it I'm already I'm already long to eat because it's a pattern in there that looked pretty good You know, it did have an eight cent profit at one time But we were looking for more so you've got to keep Keep your plan working, but that's that's basically, you know, what I'm looking at Okay, let's Terry's asking a question about the cocoa and let's just take a look at that There's another one that looks interesting on the futures and that is the Coffee, but let's take a look at cocoa here. Yes, out here we go I don't know what this was one that we've got a possibility. Let's get the cocoa up so we can see it I haven't traded cocoa and oh my gosh It's pretty good if you can see them, you know, beautiful abcd patterns now I don't know if we've taken out 200 2200 yet if we've taken out 2200 and didn't collapse from there that could be a double bottom So by let me see who said that about the cocoa Terry tell me what the last price is on the cocoa Because if it just takes out the 2200 by just a little bit and then turns that could be a nice double bottom pattern So We find ourselves that that's what we have to be looking at hold on here a second and we'll get that up Take a quick look at it. Let me let me review I have to tell you something folks, you know, most of you that know me and you and subscribe to my stuff you get stuff It's holding up. Yeah as long as it can stay above that 2200 the cocoa will be pretty good One of the things that That you know, I get stuff from me all through the night because I get up a lot and I check the prices and if something looks good I send it through or whatever. So I have much of it last night Last night folks, I slept eight hours I mean I went to bed at 9 30 and I woke up 10 minutes before the show was supposed to start so I don't have my usual Charts up that I usually look at so if you have any questions like the cocoa and stuff like that Please bring it on hold on a second here my mouth's a little dry Like a little h2o to get your heart beating. Okay, if you have any questions eight seven seven nine two seven six six four Let's take a look Marshall's asking a question about the Sahara dust, you know, that happens all the time But I I don't know anything about it, but I will ask rich I haven't talked to him about something like that. But I you know, I'm just looking at the charts, you know, as you know, Marshall, I don't Really follow the news. I happen to see that because we we're going to have a hottest day of the year here in Tucson at 108 And the mount lemon behind us is still burning. So Got a lot of smoke in the air so the air quality is not usually as good as it is here But we'll take a quick look at this coffee here in just a second because I think this is one That's going to have a chance for a pretty good bottom and the reason why you hold on just a second shot the front door All right, let me get this up here. Okay one two Yeah, it is a dry heat. Yeah And believe me, it's it's definitely hot. You'll see look at this. You see we had this Really nice one three five pattern in coffee. We got a nice rally from 106 up to 114 and boom just big a vcd down I don't know if coffee is going to hold the 94 or not. I haven't checked the price recently But we'll take a look at it later on Um, okay. Oh, we got a cool. Here we go. We got some good questions here from uh, got a question from paul When you're reading candlestick patterns, you include data outside your regular trading hours Yes, I do I watch because of the 24 hour trading. I do watch it a lot of times There's not much going on but there's actual trading there and sometimes it's quite significant Um, you know because we see these markets top sometimes at one o'clock two o'clock in the morning new york time And uh, you have to look at that because if you're if you're a technician, you need all the data you can get So I do watch the overnight data I don't necessarily trade off of it But I watch it very very closely because they do you get completed patterns there very much a perfect example of that folks was last night When we had the completed pattern in gold at 17 you know 96, you know, we were looking for it to break above 1792 it did Stayed about 96 for maybe 20 minutes and then you know down she went she dropped 30 more than $32. So we'll take a break here. We'll talk about the qqq eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight If you're not currently using the taz profile scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities Then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon The taz profile scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks etfs commodity futures and forex headed by steve doll Taz understands that in today's technological world the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis Expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market You also gain access to the webinar that steve doll and tom o brian just hosted The best way to use the taz profile scanner to profit this webinar archive is available for all subscribers Immediately upon signing up all new subscriptions also come with a 30 day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk Start your subscription by visiting the front page of tfnn.com today And you'll find the taz profile scanner under the services tab sign up today Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? 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Petersburg tampa and clear water markets tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers Make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price You should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call tiger real estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 Or email us at tiger at tfnn.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today Many of our new listeners have heard about the tiger's den The tiger's den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet exchange ideas and information in a comfortable moderated atmosphere Hear all of the tfnn shows plus see all of the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts You can test drive the tiger's den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets And how to make your money work for you details on the tiger's den or on the front page of tfnn.com tfnn has launched our brand new website You can still visit us at the same tfnn.com URL But when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation Whether you're watching tiger tv live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options Check out the new tfnn.com now and experience all the upgrades tfnn.com educating investors Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Okay, we're back folks and uh, I've been asked to review this qqq or the nasdaq Yesterday, uh, if you remember here, we were looking at that potential ABCD pattern. It's a three drive to a top pattern It was absolutely perfect within 40 points of something that's trading at 10,300 the high was 10,286 I believe Very very close to that. It was a 1.618 expansion of the high that we had back on the 21st Perfect a bcd. You couldn't ask for anything better. You didn't have to pick a top there This is one of the things that we did point out to you now. This is a 30 minute chart And as you'll see the market came down and right during market hours is when it made that garterly We were putting that up. You see that's that secondary pattern there And that's the one that we posted in the room to watch it very very closely because if it didn't get above 10,230 10,010 230 it had a possibility to go to the downside and as you can see it had a pretty good break It rallied up to 10,220 which made it a perfect one three five pattern We actually posted that one in the room yesterday too And then from there it fell down and that's 64 dollar question that someone asked yesterday Where does it go from here? Well, you have to let the market give you the feedback and the market's giving you A little bit of feedback overnight You look at the overnight low that we had which was lower than we had during the day session yesterday We made a slightly lower low at 9,900. That's down well over 400 points and look with a rally the rally took you up to 10,050 Now that's a 382 retracement of the whole move down. Now. That's very important. I know right now It's trading about 10,000 roughly 10,010 But if this thing can break above 10,060 with some power, it's going to complete another abcd pattern Right up around the 61 retracement of 10,120 Or 10,140 either one of those two numbers would be something that you're looking at And that's what that's what a technician is supposed to do You don't have to listen to the news or anything just watch what the darn charts telling you to do Does it work all the time shucks? No, but nothing else does either So that's the edge that you're trying to get when you're looking at some of these things, you know It's it's nothing more or less like that the same thing was happening in the gold market yesterday I mean we this was something that we brought out in the newsletter and you know sometimes these things work sometimes they don't but The gold market was Was really trying to tell us here. Let's get this up here So you'll be able to to see it here because we went up to make this high hold on I get this up here And uh, we'll be able to see this very clearly You'll see here we were at once the market exceeded that 10 17,066 We went all the way up and took out the highs from way back in april Which was a the larger abcd pattern that started on, you know, june the 7th We went up. We had a beautiful garly pattern stopped at 1704. I said, excuse me 1706 And we missed that one because we were trying to buy at 1704 We missed it by a couple of dollars and that abcd pattern took us up to new highs at 1792 and the high was 1796 and the market broke 32 dollar a little more than 32 dollars in the last two days and that that gives us some information too That tells us that, you know, we've made uh, the harmonic number in gold Is 32 and we made the first harmonic number to the downside So you have to see the same thing that you're looking at in the gold market You have to do the same thing in the in the nasdaq So once you do them both because all the markets act the same every single one of them If you took off the price action or the price scale and the Uh, the data scale you would not be able to even tell what the what the what the chart would be We did a test with that with john murphy once down in texas at one of these Money shows and I happened to be on the thing and they they put up the charts And it was someone was arguing about what the trend of the market is And john murphy answered the first question and it was a perfect answer and he says well, what What is the time frame that you're looking at? Because if you're looking at the time frame in the stock market over the last, uh, You know three months, what would you say it would be? Well, it's it's still down a little bit. How about over the last 10 days? It's up. How about over the last two days? It's down So you have to know what the time frame is in order to determine the trend So when someone tells you they're trading with the trend you're going to say, oh, what time frame are you trading it on? Because that's what really counts Folks, I've done a lot of work with moving averages many many years ago And and the thing that really turned it for me is when I worked at commodity corporation because The the moving averages didn't mean anything What meant something to the people at commodity corporation was the volatility and the volatility breakout When there was something that exploded out of a certain area, that's when they were trying to In fact, that's what their whole program was about It was you know, they took the stuff that amos hostage or had used and j cross worked with amos And so he knew pretty much what they were doing They looked at all these different types of oscillators and moving averages But what they found was the fact that when that volatility kicked in That's when you really wanted to start looking at the markets and that's You know what what the same thing happens and everything so you have to narrow down What are you going to use? You know, I can't look at all these reports for two reasons a I don't understand it That's the main thing and two there's so darn many of them. There's just no way that I could possibly Possibly keep up with it. So hold on here a second We're having a little bit of technical difficulties here in Arizona because of the fires and stuff. So we've had a little bit of a Problem with internet connections Through the night I was told just a second ago. So we're going to hopefully we'll get Stan Harley on here At the break to you know to take a look at it the other thing you're talking about market feedback We'll get this get this up here because this was the one that we were looking at in the silver Over the weekend You'll see here that we had this 135 pattern in here And you know the silver could not even take out 0.3 When gold was expanding to the 1.27 number This was extremely negative to silver and silver broke from uh, I think 826 1826 the last time I saw it was around 1650 But that was telling you that that market was giving you some feedback that maybe the overall pattern in the Gold at the golden silver was not bullish as the you know the people on the tube were trying to tell you and that's pretty much Uh the way that happened. There was another bit of information. I think that we had on that if I have it correctly Nope, I don't have it in that one. Sorry about that boys and girls But anyway, we'll uh, we'll cover that a little bit a little bit later The other thing that that I think is important here is this treasury bond market We'll get this up here to take a look at it and that is that, you know, we're still we're looking at higher interest rates here folks Not lower interest rates They've already given up or at least that's what someone said on bloomberg the other day that they've given up on negative Interest rates. Well, that's a really good thing to give up on because that thing doesn't make any sense to me at all But that's that's my two cents worth So if you have any questions, it's eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight And I appreciate all the questions coming in this morning And if I can answer I certainly will and if I can't I'll make something up All right, let's move on and uh, take a quick look at what these markets are doing so I can update We've got the break coming up But I want to see how the markets are acting because the opening is so Very very important. We're still trading at that 10,400 10,004 for the NASDAQ And the s&p is down quite a bit trading at 30 35 We'll be right back folks Larry pezzavento watches the markets 24 seven and now is a great time to try out his daily trading service Fibonacci 24 seven Larry publishes videos and charts for subscribers throughout the week when warranted and every weekend He puts out a thorough report covering worldwide markets futures commodities and currencies With Fibonacci retracement levels possible trading setups and zones and stops and targets for all recommendations included Larry applies the principles He's developed over decades of trading while analyzing a variety of markets for subscribers To see for yourself the types of videos charts and analysis that Larry provides for his subscribers Sign up for Fibonacci 24 seven today by visiting the front page Of tfnn.com under the newsletter tab You'll also gain instant access to Larry's archive subscriber webinar from earlier this year New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee. 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I believe we have stan harley of the harley stock market letter on the line stan. Are you there? Good morning larry. I'm doing well Well, I hope so we're having our hottest day of the year here at Tucson today at 108 So you're probably a little bit warmer than that up there in uh, phoenix But it's pretty hot But are you seeing any of the fires that are up in the phoenix area? You can probably see the uh smoke and stuff I would imagine Yeah, absolutely. I actually live in scott's tale Which is a suburb on the northeast side of phoenix. And yeah, we had some serious fires here Really bad fires. Yes, but they're starting to taper off. They're getting getting them under control. That's a good thing It's going to be a cooker today. We're gonna have 111 here today. Oh, yeah, that's uh, but it's a dry heat as they say It's a dry heat. Yeah, you know, as long as Arizona we know and love Yeah, as long as you don't go out between 12 and 4, it's actually not too bad But uh, you know do your stuff early in the morning. It's actually quite nice, but uh, it's a beautiful place There's no question about it. And let's get talking about these markets stan You had a very stance the last time we talked and the stock never made new highs in the s&p that the dow Jones The nasdaq did you want to tell us what you're looking at now, my friend Absolutely, and I sit I emailed some charts to you a little while ago if if you have the time I posted I posted them in there. You we're ready to go Let's go then uh, the first thing. Yes, I I think we are in a topping evolution. No larry um, I track What what I refer to as a seven-year cycle. It's actually uh with my regression modeling It's 82 months just a couple months shy of exactly seven years And it's a very reliable cycle that cycle last bottom in february of 2016 Uh before that it was march of 09 Or that before that october 2002 and so on Um, plus or minus a few months. We tend to get standout market lows Of course before you make a low you got to make a high And I think we are in a topping evolution in that cycle now unlike bottoms which tend to be v-shaped or Price shocks one and done sometimes a retest Topping evolutions are different. They tip. They typically span several months Maybe five seven eight months from start to finish I look at what I call the big five and for me the big five Indices of the down industrials the down transports sob 500 nasdaq composite and new york composite and what I find is throughout this many months Of the topping evolution We see initially all five of those make new all-time highs then a while later Maybe only four then maybe only three then two then one and that's a fairly common pattern Thus far the dow transports peaked out in september of 2018 In january, I think we probably saw a high in the new york composite In february we probably saw the dow and the s and p peak out and the last component among the big five To peak out I believe is a nasdaq and I think that's what's developing now The second chart, by the way Is a chart of the s and p 500 at the last seven year topping evolution And as as one can see when that chart comes up on the screen the s and p And and the dow topped in in may But it wasn't for another two months. It's a nasdaq topped out And when the nasdaq topped out on july 20th the s and p topped You know may 20th by the way two months prior But the s and p and the dow came within just a few ticks have taken out their may 20th high and then As I said the the nas was the final component among the big five There it is to make a new high and that completed the topping structure and from that point the market rolled over Larry I see a very similar evolution now I see just like in 2015 the nasdaq the last component among the big five to make a new all-time high I think we have a little bit more to go perhaps another week But we're awfully awfully close to what I think is probably going to be a final high in this market Well, it certainly appears that that's what same thing scenario that we have now It was happening then because the nasdaq did go up and make a substantially new high But none of the others really did so that's that's good market feedback I think there's a I think we may have another week this and then and then I think we're finally done Another divergence that's very very interesting the third chart. I sent you a lot of technicians focus on the new york advanced decline line I look at that A lot of them are pointing out quite accurately that the advanced decline line is currently making a new all-time high Did just a few days ago and a lot of technicians then make the following conclusion they say well if the Advanced decline line is making a new high Therefore the down the s and p should follow And I say no I say what one needs to do is look at the advanced decline line and compare it to the new york composite index And look for signs of either confirmation or divergence The new york composite topped out in january and is not even close to making a new high there It is on the screen and the advanced decline line is making a new high What you have is a divergence And those divergences can occur at bottoms they can occur at tops and that's what's happening now So when you see a divergence like that you've got to say what's wrong with this picture Uh, that's telling us something is wrong And uh, and I believe uh, it's telling us a topping evolution is is imminent And I think we have just a few more days to go uh Don't want to try to be too precise on the date here But I think we are very very close to a final high when you see the nas go to a new high Nothing confirming And then rollover then that's probably it and we're probably had it south and probably had it south to the next 82 month cycle bottom, which Uh, my regression modeling points to the end of 2022 We typically go down larry For between two and three years with two and a half back at the end of low math about average So if you take uh, the high right in here and add two and a half years Well, you get to the next 80 82 month cycle bottom Wow Stan we have a question for one of our listeners on the chart that you had the nasdaq and the s&p You have three moving average lines there. You got a blue a green and a red Could you tell us what you're looking at there and what those lines mean? Yeah, they uh, good question and this kind of dovetails well with your earlier comments about 20 minutes ago about uh Trend, uh, is the market going up? Well, it depends on the time frame Well, this this cycle addresses that point you were just making there. I've got three different moving averages on here One is a 15 week The other is a 50 week that's in blue and the red one is a 200 week and um I find that all three of those tell a different story the 15 week by the way I've got that from gerome brezzard Walter brezzard's son. He follows the 15 and uh, I think it does a good job of defining the shorter term trend A more intermediate term is defined by the blue one the 50 week and the longer term trend is divided by the 200 and Well, certainly back in 2015 that chart that we were looking at They were rolling over and we're looking at a similar evolution now in the current market Wow Well, that's really cool. You know the reason I live here in tucson Is two reasons one my cousin lived here, but the main reason was I used to come down and visit Teresa and uh, well brezzard all the time when gerome was just a little A little shaver and I used to come here to visit him all the time And I liked it so much that when I moved out of california. This is where I came and that's where I'm here And uh, it was a lot of that's when he ran hal commodity cycles, you know That was uh, you know and everybody thought it was named, you know hal actually meant high and low Yeah, everybody thought I was a dog, but no It was uh, it was high and low. Hey, listen. Thanks for joining us buddy And we'll have you on again in a few weeks and uh, stay safe up there and don't go out when it's too hot partner Understood my pleasure. Thank you. Thank you so much. Stay at harley and the harley stock market letter. We'll be right back folks The gold market has taken off top side in a large way in 2020 If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report took profits in four of its equities in the gold portfolio in the first week of january for a combined profit Of 99.2 percent with two positions left in the portfolio that have a profit of 67.5 percent as of january 7th The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metals sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every monday morning I published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xa u hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report Sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today Till the s and p 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spxs Directions daily s and p 500 bull and bear leveraged etf's Direction leveraged etf's an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus And summary prospectus call eight six six four seven six seven five two three or visit direction investments dot com A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc Many of our new listeners have heard about the tiger's den the tiger's den is a lively community Where professional traders and investors can meet exchange ideas and information in a comfortable moderated atmosphere Hear all of the tfnn shows plus see all the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts You can test drive the tiger's den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets And how to make your money work for you details on the tiger's den on the front page of tfnn dot com tfnn has launched our brand new website You can still visit us at the same tfnn dot com url But when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation Whether you're watching tiger tv live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options Check out the new tfnn dot com now and experience all the upgrades tfnn dot com educating investors The bull bear trading hour with tom and tommy o brian next Okay, by the way folks if you do want to see Stan's charts and you're not happened to be in the tfnn listening live right now if you're waiting for a later if you're Archiving this just drop me a line and I'll email those charts to you. It's larry pesavento at gmail.com And then we will have them so hopefully you'll be able to get them now We're going to take a look here at the natural gas folks if you'll remember a couple days ago We've been watching this natural gas quite a bit If you'll notice the low that we made back on the 15th Of june and we've rallied up seven days virtually with no rally all week We could not even make a 382 retracement of the high that we made, you know way back on The june 1st that's that's extremely various action and look where we are today We're trading at 161 and that tells us that we're going to go a lot lower So what we're waiting for in this is we're waiting for that large abcd pattern that started back on May the 4th We came down it made a perfect guardly you see up there abcd Right at 707 which is a heartbeat away from 0.618 that that abcd pattern takes you down into the 1.4 1.46 area So we're we could be 17 points away and believe me natural gas moves very fast So it's not unusual for to do that because it's been lower than that if you looked at a long-term charts So we're watching this one for you know a really significant bottom now if it if it turns from here And it doesn't go down and we get above the 175 then yes, that'll tell us that this is probably getting ready You know to go up but right now we're waiting for lower prices. Look at the trend I mean my goodness since may since may 4th this puppy's been going straight down And uh until that turns there's no reason to try to catch a falling knife And you know there's nothing wrong with trying to catch a falling knife But it's better for the knife to hit the ground and then you know do the first pattern afterwards That's what we were doing at doing when we were looking at the nasdaq yesterday You know, we weren't trying to pick a top up there We just saw a major abcd pattern in the nasdaq and then decided yeah Well, here's a very very low risk now this morning you'll notice that we talked about that 10,050 level In the nasdaq is being very important and you can see it right now We're a hundred handles lower than that right now now if we can turn and get above 10,050 Then the nasdaq has changed its course and it's probably going to rally some more So that's all you're doing when you're watching these things you're trying to get some market feedback Of what you think is going to happen and you're you know I do a lot of trading folks But you know, I always try to narrow it down to what I think is going to be the easiest thing to look at And that's that's all I'm trying to do so with the with the natural gas You know after that little that little tiny rally of about seven days where it went absolutely nothing My gosh, it was screaming that it was not you know, not going to go anywhere Now we saw the same thing in the wheat you have beautiful pattern in the wheat Rallys 10 12 cents and here it is back down to new lows And if you get stopped out your farming business is over and you go on to the next one But you could you've raised your stop now So your your risk on this is only $250 on the wheat Let's see what it's doing this morning so far that we're only out of penny and a half So it still should be okay Now you can see the nasdaq right now is trading at 99 33 we had that low over low Excuse me the over the overnight low was at right at 98 95 if we go below that That's telling you you're looking at probably a three day correction You know yesterday was day one. This is two the three day correction would be coming in on friday And that will be a reversal week because you had a higher high And you closed very badly and that would not be a very good sign in the nasdaq on the long term You know weekly charts. We've got the s and tree trading at 30 18 And I believe that we're heading way down on that particular thing for for quite a bit So we'll we'll watch it very very closely. But again, again, we really don't know which of these is going to be You know the best to take a look at but we'll we'll follow those as we go through the crude oil I think has made a pretty good top up there at that 41 63 level We had the same thing yesterday in the crude oil with that number. We were looking at was at 40 40 20 in the august crude and right now we're trading at 37 81 and it's It's got a really interesting pattern here. I'll show you folks in just a second here We'll get it up to take a look at it. This is a combination. Let's just get this here so we can see it here This is a combination of the AI program You can see the overnight weakness in the Market that's the blue line is the European market time And then the red happens to be the s and p So the thing that and this only works about seven out of ten times but watch Watch 10 30 this morning folks because if this is correct We should be making some type of a top in crude oil around the 10 30 level now Whether is it going to do that or not? I don't know but all I'm doing is I'm just looking at something That says hey this may or may not happen and if it happens Then I have a possibility to do it But if it's way way lower or way higher than that at that time that this pattern is not there And you really can't you can't do anything with it So that's the whole the whole premise of what you're trying to do now Over the past seven or eight years. I've tried to get this automated and I have never found anybody that was able to Automate it for me, but I still am looking I'm still working with john and howard errington on it to try to line it up to Make it an automatic situation that when that red line Starts to go up you look for a buy and when the red line starts down you look for a sell And that's what the whole program is all about it's it's based on Two-minute charts and if you go over the last 60 days It gives you every single thing that can happen in a market in a two-minute chart over the last 60 days And believe me it has nothing to do with anything's going on in the world. This is all about numbers There's nothing there other than the number. So remember that eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight I have a think I have a question in here. Someone asked me about Okay, if someone's asking about the s and p today what it's going to do I'll give you a rough idea here boys and girls. So just give me one second And I'll I'll give you my two cents worth but because this market has been quite a bit There we go. I think we have a pretty good idea Oh this we've got something really cool coming up bear with me here boys and girls We're going to see you test the old idea to see if it's going to work And we will get it ready here. Oh dear. Yeah. Oh, we got something to pay attention to here today This will be really interesting here. Okay, hold on We have a little session here. We'll get this up and see it This is the prediction for the s and p as you can see we have two bottoms forming one at 10 15 Eastern time the other one at roughly 1145 to 12 o'clock that the real the real key is you'd like to see the you'd like to see that low at 12 1145 you'd like to see that one a little bit higher than the low and that should come in At around 1015 now, that's what this is what this is showing now. Remember this is a it's a probability base In other words, this thing is looked at patterns over the last 60 days and it it asks itself Okay, what happened on day three what happened on day 23 what happened on day four when they line up Then it gives you a forecast of what this day should possibly be and that's all it is folks It's a forecast so keep in mind the important time is at 10 o'clock 10 15 And the secondary time is at 1145 1145 will be the key one because you'd like that one to be higher Than the low but this has nothing to do with price boys and girls This is only that blue line is only time. It has no idea the price of the thing It's all it's a pure timing cycle and it's based on a whole lot of research. So It's not nice to fool mother nature. Sometimes they work sometimes they don't let's look at the s&p quickly On the 30 minute chart and we'll see where we are. Oh, this is pretty nice. We can get a rough idea There we go. We get some pretty good ideas here and that will tell us that we are looking at Write these down folks. These should be pretty interesting. You want to look at the s&p? At 29 94. Let me get the chart up We'll take a look at it and all I'm doing now is I'm taking the time frame of this Let's get this up here and I'm trying to see where the Where the prices are going to go at that time. So I'm looking at 29 94 Back in the day, I joined the hotel california in 2006 and like many of you was drawn in by As well as whatever you think about you bring about whatever you focus on grows You see, I believe that everything in life happens for us not to us and tom ignited the fire within me to want to Learn how to master the markets So how did I go from knowing nothing about technical analysis to becoming the number one market timer for the s&p? 518 and the number two market timer in 2019 simply put I hired coaches with a proven track record Which led me to a whole new set of tools that I created to interpret the message of buyers and sellers I would love the opportunity to teach you this award-winning set of tools and help you improve your market timing You can test drive my newsletter service mastering probabilities for the next 30 days with no risk to you Plus you'll gain access to archive workshops That'll take you step by step through my system Sign up today by going to the home page of tfn.com and selecting mastering probability in the newsletter tab If you haven't checked out the newsletters page of tfn.com What are you waiting for all of the tfn newsletters are informative up to date Affordable and a must-have for every trader looking to gain a competitive Informational edge in today's markets tfn newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news Plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days From all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds metals commodities and tech There's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from tfn Stay informed each day. You trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game Visit our newsletters page by going to tfn.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page tfn.com educating investors With markets trading with extreme volatility and peaks and troughs everywhere regardless of what you're looking at in the markets This is a great time to see the type of analysis Basil Chapman delivers for his subscribers every market day with the opening call newsletter Basil has been analyzing markets providing his take for subscribers to his trading services since 1984 Every morning basil publishes an update for his subscribers Along with weekend and evening updates when warranted the opening call provides traders a daily market overview With regard to the direction of the key indices selective stocks and commodities Along with specific recommendations including stops and targets You also gain instant access to basil's subscriber webinar archive from earlier this year A dark cloud cover an essential market analysis ride the Chapman wave today by signing up for the opening call newsletter On the front page of tfn.com under the newsletter tab new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk sign up today This segment is brought to you by think or swim More information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfn.com Okay, folks that ruby asked us to take a look at the russell 2000 This is pretty much up to date this morning You know that we made a 61 percent retracement had a two day sell-off went up to the 78 percent retracement But look at the divergence here folks This looks just like the silver 135 pattern. You made the 78 percent retracement. You came down Remember now you're having lower highs in here over the last few days when the s&p is really strong And the nasdaq is making new highs. This is exactly the pattern that stan russell's stan Stan harley was telling us about this morning. So that's that's very this has a very various connotation Now if the russell gets really strong here so far the load today has been the 13 60 But if we get above that 1500 level then that would be a bullish pattern because you've got a little bit of an abcd structure there So right now the russell is the the weakest and also the dow was doing pretty much the same thing But the russell is the best To think the trade after the s&p 500 given the open interest the open interest in the russell is number two s&p force of course is number one That is the nasdaq and then the worst one to trade on open interest and it's not worse It's just that the open interest is less is the dow Jones. So That's the main thing because you know the russell trades the same tick as a dow jones five dollars a tick. So That's why it's easy to trade good fills a great execution on that russell So you want to watch that one because this is a divergence market This is market feedback that this market certainly looks like it wants to go lower we've had lower highs ever since June the 11th And that's mainly what we're looking at here that seems like it's going to go a little bit lower now whether it does today or not We don't know but the good part is nobody else does either and tomorrow folks is happy friday We're hoping to have bill meridian on if he's not going to be on tomorrow. He'll be on next week monday. We're going to have Norman he calls it like he sees it winsky from astro trends down in florida will be a guest on monday And we'll see you on the flip side tomorrow. So live every day In an attitude of gratitude and may god bless