 Gweinwch. Mae fyddwch i gymryd yn ystod iaith ddim yn ei ddweud ynghylch a fyddwch i'r rhaglen. Y ddweud yn yfodol o feithwyr iawn yn wneud, mae'r gyffredin i hynny'n gyntaf oed i gaelodau. Rwy'n dechrau, ddweud i chi i! Mae gennymau ar y lle hwn o'r dufenig. Fe hwn o'r programau Cyfraeddion, os ydych chi'n chi'n gallu weithio trafoddau'u gwirionedd. pan ddifudio i ddefnyddio'r plwy sydd wedi'i gweithio'r llyfr yn ddarparu y Llyfrgellau Llyfrgellol? Felly mae'r drwy ddyn nhw'n ddegin i ddiddordeb yr ysgol yma, yn gweithio'r pryddiadau cyfnodd am y cyfnoddol, yn dod yn ddiddordeb y Llyfrgellau Llyfrgell i ddiddordeb yn ddiddordeb i ddiddordeb y Llyfrgellau Llyfrgell i ddiddordeb a'u ddiddordeb y Llyfrgellai Llyfrgellau, declaring that there was a gap when we moved into post-apartage time. There was an anomaly there in policy which needed to be solved. The third thing quickly is that I was asked, I took my brief as concentrating on the institutional issues rather than on the most fascinating labour market issues that you've just been talking about Santiago, it's most thought-provoking. Thank you. The broad South African context of democratic transition were extremely severe, obviously patterns of racialized poverty and inequality and with the question they were what is the role for the new state, the previous state had in fact had quite an impressive but very racially biased array of welfare measures. The pressing need for the spatial reintegration of racially separate administrations, it's kind of hard to reimagine that time now but there were 17 completely racially separate welfare administrations, they were like different countries, it wasn't that they were different departments. So to the new South African government made the most extraordinary success of rapidly integrating these previously separate administrations. The changing world of work was upon us with very high unemployment rates, then less income security and very high unemployment. And then in 1991 just beginning the absolute recognition of what the HIV and AIDS epidemic was going to do with a very high burden of care and the realization that state spending on health and welfare has a very small fraction of the total amount of caring that needs to be done. The social assistance legacy, the previous apartheid government had already by 1993 reached parity in the two largest grants, those for elderly people and people with disabilities. The previous ratio in the level of the grants was of the order of 10 to 5 to 1. So if as a white person I would have got 10 round of a pension for instance versus Indian and coloured people excuse these expressions would have got 5 and an African person would have got 1. And this parity had been reached about halfway through 1993. There was still a problem with the single the state maintenance grant for women and children. It was a budgetary problem in the sense that you couldn't equalize it easily because it depended on a western definition of a nuclear family which was quite unlike as I would have picked what the actual reality of family life was in South Africa which had been disrupted by colonialism and then apartheid, very complex and fluid households, three generational households, many many missing men. And the question then arose what are appropriate forms of support. The migrant labour system and I'm talking about internal labour migrancy. There were also large numbers of people migrating in to work particularly on the mines from Zambia and Zimbabwe and Malawi, Botswana and Mozambique. But thinking of the internal migrant labour system, large numbers of women had children outside or before marriage and then having successive children with successive fathers, with different fathers. Large numbers of men having two households, completely separate households, one in the rural one in the urban area, only about a third of households conforming to the norm of the nuclear family. So you couldn't equalize the grant, the state maintenance grant in the same way as you could with a pension for a single elderly person or person with a disability, very high rates of care by granny and older women. Often in the absence of children's parents. It's a truly difficult situation and a very common picture would be this informal trader granny working in the streets of Durham and looking after a grandchild on the street. I'm just going to give a couple of pictures for context. So this land committee of inquiry was very bizarre that stuff existentially. The land committee of inquiry makes me feel very wise because it worked. It was set up in 95 just after it was one of the government's first big commissions of inquiry, the new government. We were given nine months, which was ferocious to come up with recommendations. And the main and not the only recommendation was for cash transfer for children from up to their seventh birthday. This was before the big Latin American program started coming down. And I think the influence was actually more from the child support benefits probably in England than it was. We later used the evidence from progress and opportunities to endorse and consolidate the program and from the other Latin American countries. It came in in April 98 at about $100 a month at $10 a month per child in today's terms. And it had a very rapid outreach where today, well last year, it's reaching 11.3 million of the 18 million children up to the age of 18 at about $300 per month. And it's now reached its last year of eligibility 18. So the budget has settled down. It's stabilizing. The overall budget for pensions and grants is stabilizing. As far as we know, as far as you can make guesses about the future at about 3.5% of GDP. So the welfare administrations were racially separate and had been, but they were now integrated but under strain. The poorest people lived in the more remote and underserved particularly rural areas, but where the civil services were very bloated so that the puppet regimes which the apartheid government had set up, the bounty stunts and the homelands, were very fertile field for the replication of a bureaucracy. The good news of that was it got roads out there. It got markets, it got housing out into fairly remote areas. There was a very high rhetoric about the developmental state services for all and so on, but there was a system, and I'll come back to this, a system for the allocation and delivery of old age pensions and disability grants that was working, albeit with some problems. I want to draw attention, I mean to say that all the sums we're seeing now that have been done about the global social protection floor, which has been accepted by all of the United Nations agencies, the sums have been done on the basis of what it's paid, not on the basis of how you deliver what you're going to pay. And it's an enormous issue, I think, and what we could do in South Africa was piggyback the child support grant onto an existing system of delivery. I'm going to need a glass of water. So this is when I talk about a remote rural area. I think there are three households you can see within this rather large picture, and the question is how to run a system that gets the social measure out there. I'm going to very quickly go through four or five slides which show the institution of the pension. The pension is bought in not job creation so much as periodic markets. You go around a corner. This is a tribal authority or a school that you see with all of the people. That will be a whole group of pensioners and people with disabilities lining up to get their monthly pension, and there will be a market that gets set up, periodic market. Now you see it, now you don't before it then follows the pension vans out there. The pension lines are very orderly and they're also, apart from the markets that's set up around them, we found with the child support grant that the pension days were the most reliable place to spread accurate information about the child support grant that was coming down. We had the audience right there if you like. Pensions delivered by these four by four vehicles in the background through an automated teller system, and this just shows a blind pensioner getting assistance with entering her fingerprints. So the state is there. It's actually a privatised service, but the state is there to give assistance, which is interesting. Now we took the, goodness, what's a lot of slides, excuse me a second, an extremely important feature of the rapid acceptance of the child support grant was that there was already really good research that had been done. About the impact of the pension for elderly people, and to a lesser extent to the impact of the pension for people with disabilities. I have to say here that it really made a difference that Angus Deaton and Anne Case did some of the really, really good research showing the positive impacts early on. Some others such as Esther DeFlo and others followed on from that. There was a really, really good research going on in South Africa, but there's a kind of edge that you get when people from the north come in and help. The cash transfer for older people is and was pooled largely as household income, and the target, the point of the research was it showed that you could get money out to rural areas. You could target it to women if that's what you chose to do. Women used to draw it earlier under the third bullet, in fact that age has now been, just last year, the equalisation with men. It's been made gender proper now. It was very biased against men. Women, we know that pension money is spent on the whole rather well. There are positive links with enterprise creation, although that is not the purpose of it and with employment seeking behaviour, and it crowds in a lot of caring by elderly people. This research on the old age pensions had actually shifted some of the attitudes towards and discourse about it away from the idea that welfare spending is wasteful consumption spending as opposed to productivity and growth enhancing spending. It settled that very turbulent arena somewhat so that you could introduce the idea of another grant into a more understanding field with very well-read ministers of finance and very good leaders of the South African Revenue Services, which I'll get back to you as a very important factor in the acceptance of the grant. What the committee wanted was to have a universal, not a targeted grant. We wanted first call for all children. We wanted something that would take into account the fact that children are highly mobile in their early years and are often not looked after by the biological parents. So, follow the child. Where's that child going between those households? Follow the child via the primary caregiver who didn't have to be their biological parent. That's a huge breakthrough to have made. It was to be unconditional as all of the other grants in South Africa are up until just recently and I'll raise that. We wanted there to be synergies with health services, which some could call a conditionality. That doesn't matter to me particularly. What was accepted by cabinet was for a universal. What was not accepted was the universality and a means test was imposed. They accepted follow the child and they accepted via the primary caregiver. That took quite a lot of intervention by the state legal advisers. It was a wholly unconditional until 2012 and I'll get back to that as an obstacle that's just been introduced. The health department said this was more than they could bear. It was the idea to actually link this with full vaccination. We have very high rates of vaccination for those that children can get when they're born. But some you have to come back later and we thought you could review the grants when people would come back for a vaccination. In courses on a Zoomer, the then Minister said that she was dealing with stopping smoking, introducing abortion, trying to keep political stability in the face of something called the Cuban doctors who were coming. There was a lot of paranoia. Introducing generic drugs and introducing community service for all health professionals. I'm just really not interested. But one of the things at the end is if other countries do take on such a cash, a child oriented transfer, I think this is an idea which could be so easily done in certain countries. The difficult areas where you have to get your birth registered and the adult has to have an identification card. The problem is this department of home affairs which has been continually chaotic under very poor leadership. We were a very unversed country, an experienced country I can say, in terms of obeying to the public what the point of a new policy measure is. The apartheid government that they weren't really used to doing that very much, they just did what they wanted. There were and are continuing myths about the grant causing teenage pregnancy despite well publicized research which shows that this is not so. Then this conditionality was introduced very much by surprise in 2012. I really do want to say who said it should be really. It's an inefficient and necessary system where we don't have a problem with school attendance on the whole. But children who receive a child support grant have to get two letters a year from the school principal saying that they are attending school or not attending school. Schools don't, I mean the areas where I live, there's no stationery in the schools whatsoever. I'm going to skip over this issue which just briefly was that we were given virtually no time for consultation and there was real civil society outrage which I think dented the new government's legitimacy quite substantially. I also think and we might raise this in question time, I myself personally think that if we had had more consultation we might have missed the opportunity to introduce the grant. The more conservative macroeconomic policy was coming down the line, all of the figures were being done better and I wonder if it isn't one of these serendipitous areas where the good of consultation might have led to the stalling on the grant. The grant was introduced for children 0-7, that's all we could get through the budget council at the time and through civil society activity the age of eligibility has been raised to 18 years old. There's a really tough policy problem in there, it's an extremely modest amount of money, extremely it doesn't take children out of poverty, it mitigates poverty, it doesn't take children out of poverty, most of that money is used for food. My hunch for myself would be to say, and it's hard saying these words because I'm a kind of universal honcho, you know, universality one, is to say keep the years younger but give those children who get it more for 7-9 years to ensure those first precious years where you can't mediate, you can't intermediate the deficits that you have in the especially 0-5 years old, so I think that's a difficult one. So just the lessons so far, history is a, I mean it was only introduced a few years ago, its delivery was dependent on the existing delivery, incredible importance of good research, we had a government that had ears and still does, that had ears to listen. Taking evidence from other cash transfer programs in South Africa and then as the evidence started coming in particularly from Latin America being able to use that to consolidate research on management and monitoring the implementation and on the impact and outcomes of the effect of the child support grant. It was easy to argue that there was no need for pilots or RCTs at that time but that's maybe a digression here. I think one of the critically important things was that revenue services in South Africa was successfully improving revenue raising and was committed to allocating large parts of the additional revenue that was being raised to the pensions and grants and it was sort of claimed as an important poverty program. So finally in terms of the questions we were asked to answer here, it was an inclusive reform. It was the first step to citizenship for millions of young children, what it did to birth registration which many would say is a really important step in development. The figures for birth registration just shot up. It is fiskally sustainable as far as we know. It's not transformative. The amount per child is too small. The parallel programs with which synergy may have been possible have had mixed success and I think there are lessons in it for other countries from both the success and the failures and would just like to draw your attention. The paper we submitted, there's a sort of short reading list there, there's a lot of references to the empirical studies and there's also the short book I wrote about, I wrote 10 years later, about the process of policy reform and it's really, it's very interesting how much it is easily used as a teaching tool for students in political science, economics, sociology, whatever. I'm surprised by, I mean I happen to have written it but how many people say it's actually very, very funny. It's a bit macabre in places also but that's nice. But it's a useful small case study in a sense, 120 pages also and it's free online and that's where I'll finish. Thank you very much indeed.