 Hey everyone, this is Dan. A lot of people believe that there will be a recession in the next 6 months to a year. S&P 500 is down 18% since the beginning of the year. The Fed is raising interest rates and doing quantitative tightening, otherwise known as QT. How do we protect our investments when the market looks so bearish? I have been tracking and trading a few ETFs that have been going up in the last few months while the market has been going down. We will talk about these ETFs in the next few minutes. First of all, let's see how the market has been trending since the beginning of the year. I'm here showing two lines. The one on the top is SPY representing the movement of S&P 500 and the bottom line, the blue line here is the ETF QQQQ representing the movement of the NASDAQ 100. As you can see, SPY has been down 18% since the beginning of the year and QQQ 26% since the beginning of the year. The market has been certainly very bearish, although there's been some ups and downs while the overall trend has been a downtrend. You might notice that SPY has been following this trend line with these peaks and we are approaching the yellow trend line again and QQQ has also been following this other yellow trend line. Actually, it has already hit the trend line or very close to hitting the trend line. That means QQQ might be pulling back soon. Another sign that's even more alarming has to do with the cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market peak in November of last year with a total capitalization of $3 trillion and as of last Friday market closing, it was less than $1 trillion. That means it has lost $2 trillion or two-thirds of its market cap. If you look back to the 2007 market crash that was triggered by the collapse of the CDOs, back then the CDOs total only $1.4 trillion and now we've lost $2 trillion worth of cryptocurrencies. Although because of inflation, $2 trillion a day is not the same as $2 trillion back in 2007. This is however still a very alarming sign. The question is whether there will be other things happening related to the collapse of the cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we have to be very careful in the next few months. At this point, I'd like to remind you to also subscribe to my Twitter account in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel. My Twitter account is DanMarketL. Almost on a daily basis, I share with my Twitter subscribers some of my trades and also any significant events that has been developing. For example, on June 7th, I tweeted that I bought SQQQ and then three days later I sold half of the SQQQ at 14% gain and then most recently on June 24th, last Friday, I tweeted that I bought UCO and OXY. That's Occidental Petroleum. UCO of course is a triple ETF paid to the crude oil price. If you like what you're seeing so far, I'd like to suggest that you click the like subscribe and notification button that will enable you to receive notification when I post my next video. It will also encourage me to make more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much. Let's continue. To understand what the market is going, we need to understand the major events that are being influencing the market. First of all, we have the Ukraine war still going on since February 24th and then the most recent decision by the Fed was raised interest rate by 0.75% and they have this plan of doing quantitative tightening of reducing the total Fed assets by $47.5 billion a month in the months of June, July and August and then starting September, the Fed will be reducing assets at the rate of $95 billion a month and then the China COVID lockdown is easing although very slowly. The May CPI came in at 8.6% year to year and the previous month April CPI was 8.3% and definitely the CPI on inflation rate is not getting better. It's actually getting worse and then a few days after that the May PPI production price index was posted at the rate of 10.8% year to year compared to the previous month April rate of 10.9% a little bit lower but not much lower. That means the inflation pressure is still very high. On May 30th, the European Union leaders said they would eliminate two thirds of the Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 and this certainly has been driving up the price of crude oil. In the meanwhile, Russia has reduced natural gas by 50% to Italy and Slovakia and cut off the natural gas export to France completely. In the meanwhile, there was an explosion at the Freeport liquefied natural gas plant which caused the US to not to be able to export much of the liquefied natural gas internationally. That of course in turn drives up the price of natural gas in Europe but drives down the natural gas in the US. Earlier in April, May and June, Russia already cut off natural gas supply to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland and Denmark. That's also related to the increase in natural gas price in Europe. Ever since the beginning of the Ukraine war, the export of wheat from Ukraine has been very much constrained and since the beginning of June, there's been the talk of the possible humanitarian corridor opened up by the Russian to allow export of wheat from Ukraine although that corridor has not been open yet at this point. Recently, the White House announced that President Biden will visit the Middle East from July 13 to 16 including making a stop in Saudi Arabia. President Biden is sure going to try to convince a leadership in Saudi Arabia to increase the production of crude oil. Recently, it was reported that the New York Fed built a computer model showing the chance of a soft landing at just 10% and the chances of a hard landing is actually at 80%. That's definitely very bearish news for the market. On June 1st, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Mr. Jamie Diamond, a very well respected banker, said that he saw a hurricane coming over our economy. Again, a very bearish observation about the market. Larry Summers, the former US Treasury Secretary, recently said that a recession is almost inevitable. As of June 26, Mohammed L. Arian, another very famous figure in the financial world, said that the Fed has low credibility quote unquote and is quote consistently late unquote with inflation fighting. Not a good piece of news for the economy either. And many companies have been announcing layoffs or hiring freezers lately. That's why a lot of people believe that a recession is coming within the next six months to a year, if not sooner. And then with regard to the Fed Funds Rate, on May 11, the former Fed official, Mr. Bill Dudley said that 6% may be needed in order to control inflation. Actually based on my estimate, in the video I published on May 22, I looked at two periods in the 1970s when the inflation rate was above 8% like what we have today. The first period from 1973 to 1976, we can see that from this chart, the Fed Funds Rate went as high as 12.93% during that time in order for the Fed to control inflation. And then another period during the 1970s, actually 1978 to 1982, the Fed Funds Rate went as high as 19%. That's why I believe the 6% rate is an optimistic prediction. My prediction is that it's going to go higher than 6% before inflation is contained. With all the bearish news, when do I think the market will actually recover? I believe the market will start recovering when the Fed stops raising interest rates and stop quantitative tightening. And when will the Fed be doing that? That's when CPI is less than 5%. Even though the stated goal of the Fed is to have 2% inflation rate, but I believe if the inflation rate can drop from 8.6% to 5%, then the Fed will declare victory and say that there's enough downward momentum. At least, they will slow up the pace of raising interest rate and then slow up the pace of quantitative tightening. At that point, the market will have the chance to rebound. Or, alternatively, which is not a very good scenario is that even with high inflation rate, if the unemployment rate is higher than 6%, then the Fed might be compelled to slow down the rate of interest rate increase in order to lower the unemployment rate. And of course, if the Ukraine War ends, then we could see a recovery, although it might be a brief one for maybe 1 or 2 months. And then after that, if the inflation rate is still high, then the Fed will continue to tighten, which will continue to bring down the market. Before we can reach to these milestones, I believe the broad trend of the market is going to be going down. If you want to look at the details of my analysis about the bearish market, you might want to refer to the video that I posted on June 20th. And how do we protect our investments? I found a few ETFs that have been going up while the market has been going down. First of all, the TMV ETF, which is paid to the 20 year or higher maturity of treasury rates, that has been going up. I will show you the chart later on. Another ETF that's UCO, which is crude oil ETF, and that's because of Ukraine War, which has been causing an oil shortage. And that's why the price of oil has been going up. Although with this particular investment, we got to be very nifty, very fast, reacting to any outcome of the Ukraine War. If the war ends, then UCO and the crude oil price will collapse quickly. That's why we need to sell quickly when the war ends. Similar to UCO UGA, the gasoline ETF has been going up. XLE energy ETF has been going up for the same reason. UNG was going up for a while. And because of the disruption of the liquefy natural gas facility in Freeport, actually UNG, which is pegged to the price of U.S.-based natural gas, it has been going down because of the short-term surplus of natural gas in the U.S. For the reason that the U.S. now cannot export as much natural gas overseas because of the destruction of that facility, and the long period of time it will be required to restore that facility. And similarly, the wheat ETF, it was going up for a while, but now it's been going down because of this talk about the potential humanitarian corridor. I bought these two ETFs earlier, and I sold most of my shares already. My surprise was coming down. And then of course, the inverse ETFs, S-Triple Q and S-P-X-S, will be going up if the market continues to go down. Related to the China COVID opening for copper and copper minor ETFs, C-P-E-R and C-O-P-X, they will be going up. Although the recovery of these two ETFs have been very slow, that's because of the reopening of China has been very slow. Let's look at the chart for these ETFs. Yet today, this is how they rank. On the bottom here, we have S-P-Y and QQQ representing the broad market, and all these ETFs I mentioned performed better than the broad market, with the U-C-O being on the top up more than 83%, and then TMV, SQQQ, etc. Now in the last month, things have changed a little bit. If you look at the broad market, QQQ and S-P-Y, actually the market has been recovering pretty much in the last 10 days or so, and later I will mention that actually the market is being running up to a little bit of a resistance, so it might be coming down again. If you look at the ETFs that I've been trading and tracking, so TMV is performing pretty well up about 14% in the last month. Next to that, S-P-X-S, the triple inverse ETFs pegged to the S&P 500, and then UGA, the gasoline ETF, and then QQQ, the broad market, it wasn't doing too badly. It actually only went down 1.3%, and then SQQQ, right below that, S-P-Y, and then actually these ETFs, U-C-O, C-P-E-R, WEED, XLE, C-O-P-X, and UNG have been underperforming comparing to the broad market. But the reversal happened just in the last 10 days, and the market might be turning bearish again. Let's look at the individual ETFs. First of all, let's look at S-P-Y. In the charts that I'll be showing, I'll be also looking at the Bolinger Bands, Supreme Post on the chart, the RSI indicator showing below the chart for S-P-Y, DMI indicator, MACD indicator, and then on the chart for S-P-Y, I've also plotted the 50 period exponential moving average, which is a blue dashed line, and the yellow dashed line is a 100-day exponential moving average. The purple dashed line is a 150-day exponential moving average, and the 200-day exponential moving average is the red dashed line. For S-P-Y, I'm showing three panels here. On the left is the hourly chart. The middle one is the daily chart, and the right one is the weekly chart. And below the chart, I'm showing the volume, RSI indicator, DMI indicator, and MACD indicator. On the hourly chart, we can see that the RSI value is very high. That means it's overboard on an hourly basis, and most likely S-P-Y will be pulling back when the market opens on Monday, at least during the first two, three hours. And if you look at the daily chart, it's approaching the middle of the Bolinger Band here after it rebounded from the bottom of the Bolinger Band. I expect the middle of the Bolinger Band 20-day simple moving average will be a very strong resistance. I used the S-P-Y chart as well as the QQQ chart to guide my trading activities for TQQQ and SQQQ, as well as U-PRO and S-P-XS, the leverage ETFs related to the S&P 500. For support levels, I can see the next level support at 370 right here, and then of course 362, the recent bottom. For resistance levels, I can see the next level resistance at 394, which is the middle of the Bolinger Band, and then 400 here, and then 417 over here. If you look at this trend line, let's zoom out a little bit. The price is approaching the trend line, which is at about 403. That means it'll be a pretty strong resistance point as well. If the price starts pulling back at the middle of the Bolinger Band or at this yellow trend line, I will be buying SQQQQ, because over I believe the market is too bearish. Let's look at QQQ. For QQQ, it looks very similar to an S-P-Y. Again, we see this downward trending yellow line defining the upper limit of these lower highs, and now we're approaching the yellow line again, which is at around 298. That will be a very strong resistance point. If you look at hourly RSI, similar to the S-P-Y, it's also very high. That means when the market opens on Monday during the first two, three hours, mostly the price will come down. For support levels, I see the next level support at right here, 278, and then of course 269, the recent bottom. For resistance levels, I'd see the next level resistance at 295, which is exactly where we are now, the middle of the Bolinger Band, and then the next level up will be around this yellow line here, the trend line about 298, and then the next level up will be around here 307, and the next level resistance will be here 314. Let's look at TMV. For TMV, the ETF paid to the 20-year treasury rate. We can see the RSI on the daily chart was pretty high on June 14, then I suspected the price pulled back, and then it's been getting support at the middle of the Bolinger Band, which is a 20-day simple moving average. I will most likely be buying TMV if the 20-day moving average continues to provide support on Monday. For support level, I see the next level support at right here, of course the middle of the Bolinger Band, and then the next level down will be at 100, which is the blue dash line, that's a 50-day exponential moving average, and then the next level support will be at 92, the bottom of the Bolinger Band. For resistance levels, I see the next level resistance at 101, right here, the historical point, and then the next level of support at 120, which is the upper Bolinger Band, and then of course the next level of resistance will be the recent peak at 122.4. Let's look at UCO, the oil ETF. For UCO, we can see that the daily RSI was pretty high on June 8th, and since then the price has come down quite a bit, it actually traversed all the way across the Bolinger Band, and finally it was getting some support in the last three trading days near the bottom of the Bolinger Band. As of last Friday when I saw the green candle here, I bought some UCO shares, as well as the shares of Occidental Petroleum, which has a very similar chart. For support levels, I see the next support level at the lower Bolinger Band, which is around 41, and then the next level of support below that will be the yellow line, which is the 100-day exponential moving average at 40.5, and then the next level support will be around here, which is 37.5, this historical level. For resistance, I see the next level resistance at 44.5, which is the 50-day exponential moving average, and then the next level of resistance above that will be at 46, this level, and then at 49, the middle of the Bolinger Band. Let's look at UNG, the natural gas ETF. For UNG, we can see that the daily RSI is very low, although because it's been so bearish, trending down continuously for the last six, seven days, I am not ready to buy unless the chart starts showing a recovery, a rebound in the next two, three days. For the next level of support, I see support at the red dash line here, which is at 19, and it's a 200-day exponential moving average. And below that, we have to reference the points around here. The next level would be at 16.9, and then below that, the next support will be at 15.8. If you go back all the way to the period before the Ukraine War, there might be a support level at around 14. For resistance level, I see the next level of resistance at 23 here, and then above that, next level at 25, and then above that at 26.7, which is also the 50-day exponential moving average, the blue dash line. Let's look at UGA, the gasoline ETF. For UGA, we can see that the daily RSI reached a pretty high level on June 3rd, and since then it's been pulling back, and in the last three, four days, it's been getting support from the bottom of the Bologna ban. For the next support level, definitely the lower Bologna ban at 68, and then the next level support would be 65.5 here, and then 62.7 here. For resistance level, I see the next level of resistance at 74.5, which is the middle of the Bologna ban, 20-day symbol moving average, and then the next level of resistance would be at 77 here, and then of course, the recent peak of 80.2. Let's look at XLE, the energy ETF. For XLE, similar to the other oil and gasoline-related ETF, it peaked around June 7th, and then it started to pull back. In the last few days, the chart has been very bearish, and I would not be buying XLE shares until I see a definitive sign of a rebound. Now if you look at the next level of support, certainly I see support at the lower Bologna ban of around 69. The next level of support would be at 65, and then the next level below that would be at 60. For resistance, I see the next level of resistance at 74 around here, and then at 77, which is also the 100-day exponential moving average, and the next level of resistance would be at right here, 82, and then 84, the middle of the Bologna ban. Let's look at WEAT, the WEAT ETF. For WEAT, as I mentioned, it's been coming down because of the talk about this possible humanitarian corridor to allow the export of WEAT from Ukraine, and that's why the price has been dropping since May 17th. For support level, I see definitely the support level, which is pretty much where we are now at 9.5, and then below that, the next level of support would be at around 8.8 here, which is also the 200-day exponential moving average, and then the next level of support would be around 7, which is the pre-war level. For resistance, I see the next level of resistance at 10 right here, and then this line, 10.6, and then 10.7 in the middle of the Bologna ban, and then above that, we have another level of resistance right here at around 11, and then, of course, above that, the upper Bologna ban will be strong resistance as well. Let's look at COPX, the copper miner ETF. For COPX, it hit a peak on April 5th, then it came down, and then it started to recover on May 10th, and then it started to come down again on June 6th. When the news came out that the easing of shutdown in Shanghai and the rest of the major cities in China is going slowly, and since then it's been going down rather quickly, so that's a pretty bearish picture at this point. For support, I see the next level of support on the weekly chart because we've gone beyond the daily chart for the period that we're showing, and I see the next level of support at 30, and then below that will be this line at 26.8, which is the 200-week exponential moving average. For resistance, I see on a daily chart the next level of resistance at 34 here, and then the next level up will be around 37.5, which is the middle of the Bologna ban, also this historical level, and then the next level up will be at 40.5, which is the 100-day exponential moving average. Let's look at CPER, the copper ETF. CPER, not surprisingly, looks very similar to COPX because they are both copper related. It's been going down and down the last two, three weeks. For support level, I would go to the weekly chart. I see support at 21.6 here, and then the next level down will be at 20.8, which will be the 200-week exponential moving average. For resistance, I see the next level of resistance at 24.3, and then the next level up will be the middle of the Bologna ban around 25.5, and then the next level of resistance will be right around here, which is 27. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational and entertainment purposes only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions, and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. This about wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.