 Okay, hello folks, just gonna give it a bit of time for everyone to get up and running and online Hi, hi everyone. Just getting the feed up and running. So just gonna give it a minute or two before we begin the the coverage But hope everyone is doing well Who've we got online? Let's have a look Onka Alexander Priyesh Someone's got a name that I can't really repeat live on air Francis Ken, hope you're all doing well. Good to have you with us. Yeah, we'll give it a minute and then we'll do a bit of a Briefing of what's going on more broadly Eddie Team amplify good to have you online Obviously Eddie you guys will know from some of the videos and podcasts we did last week stuff like that So good to have Eddie on On the call as well. So feel free to fire any questions his way Tim on hello from Germany. Good to have you online How are you feeling about the shift in polls? DSPD Was it a few few weeks to go till the German federal elections? Okay, we'll give it until 10 to and then we'll have a bit of a run-through of What's going on in terms of some of these fed comments has been plenty coming out in the last Well last few minutes in fact from Bullard But Kaplan Bullard Mester all the Hawks have been out in force ahead of Powell and so We'll have a bit of catch-up on that and then we'll talk about what we're expecting from Powell Then we'll flip over to the charts and look about how that might play out in terms of Market reaction across the different asset classes Yeah, George back house good to have you online as well. George is part of the team Happy Jackson Hole to you too Yeah, I'll give it another another minute and then we'll We'll get into things. Yeah, just getting everyone up and running online. I have already noticed though That one of my cameras my secondary camera when I flip screens to the charts for some reason isn't pulling So I'm afraid now that I am live. I cannot rectify that so you're just gonna have to Probably better. It's more beneficial to you. You can see more chart real estate rather than my face when we're looking at the charts So there might be the usual window of me in the bottom left-hand corner, but you'll be able to see everything, of course Got got my partners New squawk as well. They'll cover the news when it comes out in real time So we'll flick it on let the analysts squawk out the information when it comes out and I'll flick on my mic As well. So we captured the news as soon as it's released. Okay. Yeah, but any questions at all Obviously a bit different from being in a trading floor environment. I haven't got people all around me. So Please be patient. I'll get around to any questions and stuff as I'm trying to tackle things But Eddie and George are in the room as well. So I absolutely Feel free to fire any questions to them. They're more than happy to help All right, so let's have a bit of a chat then about what's been going on how markets are moving now one of the final Things going into this is we have had quite a bit of Fed commentary just coming into this release Bullard Kaplan and Mester and if you know your FMC members, which I know all of you are experts on Then that's that table that you need to know or be aware of at least and the reason for that is is because Identifying who are the doves and who are the hawks? Whether they reside on this scale and then are they a voter non-voting member and to try and quantify the gravity of Their what they're saying what their view is about future policy to the overall decision-making of the people have the vote to Or the ability to vote in this point in time. So Bullard Kaplan and Mester who If you look at Mester, Mester is actually moving more center ground Which might have been true before I mean this was updated in the 5th of August, but Mester is typically known as a as a hawk So her coming out and saying she's comfortable that the Fed has met substantial further progress With that threshold comfortable to start talking taper plans in September. I don't find that too Surprising to be honest those comments were made within the hour We then had Feds Kaplan and Bullard the two uber-dubs Kaplan reiterated that he wishes to start asset purchases adjustments as soon as possible and then Bullard is Still speaking really at the moment and he's reiterated that would like to taper now and finish at the end of Q1 in 2022 Need to have optionality in case inflation does not moderate and certainly he is on the outer extreme of the most hawkish view out of everyone and in terms of the market reaction to these comments, I mean, it's been fairly tame because The things that these people are saying are not greatly Surprising to be quite honest and one thing that you are seeing right now going into this eagerly anticipated Speeches quite a large duration in some of these currency markets. In fact the dollar Just been breaking down and weakening here a little bit going into the power speech In fact quite aggressively and that's led to a decent bid tone here going in through these Major pairs at the moment and so S&P following Nasdaq pretty choppy the T-notes been a bit all over the place so far and I think the rationale behind this really going into the actual text that we're about to get is the idea that The quiddity is going to be pretty thin No one's going to want to be sat in a position going into the actual release and so by fact of that You start to see quite wild movement going into the actual release and hence the reason why there's quite a high degree of Volatility now and you'd expect that to be the case as we go into the final eight minutes before the text hits the hits The news wise so the main thing is despite the hawkish commentary that's been coming out The dollar's not buying it. In fact the dollar's moving lower going into the speech And equities in terms of the S&P at least at this point is remaining relatively supported and we'll look at that from a technical perspective in a second And the Dow also has been moving higher the future trading back above its pivot level so quick quick run-through then of what we are expecting from from the main man himself and I Honestly think that this this meeting if you watch the briefing I delivered this morning I think it has been a little bit overhyped. I do think people are Perhaps looking for an inappropriately large amount of information to kind of this speech Which I don't think necessarily is going to materialize And the reason for that is I think Powell is too skilled. He's too long in the tooth now He's gonna just fairly eloquently manage. I think expectations to the September meeting And which is happening on the 22nd In between that don't forget next week We got non-farm payrolls and I think the jobs report is a really key Component of course filling that pre-pandemic gap, which is still fairly significant at this point To constitute then the decision-making around all of these things to do with taping Not just the commencement of tapering, but the speed of it duration of it so on and so forth. So I actually think overall Everyone seems to think, you know, this is the moment that taper is the beans are going to be spilled But I think could be in for disappointment and if that is the case type of movement I would expect is the type of movement we're seeing right now Which is the dollar is weakening and that's fueling a bit of a bid in the major pairs. It's propping up gold and The equity index futures and t-notes at the moment. So be interested to see going into this How it's going to react and it's going to be pretty noisy over the lease as you'd imagine because my My understanding is we'll get a batch of comments And then we'll have to pick our way through it and obviously we'll have to squawk on and then I can I can Analyze it in real time Key areas though to focus on are going to be US economic growth So instead of being explicit about tapering how does he talk about the Delta variant and The implications that that might have then for his views over tapering now You remember Kaplan said who's been more aggressive in his taper views more generally speaking That he almost dialed back his enthusiasm because of the Delta variant anything towards that would be much more Constituting a dovish type of reaction we're more likely to see the other then is the the timing and length of tapering again I think this is really for the September meeting not for now But those are all very important points not just the initiation of it and obviously a September announcement October commencement is more hawkish something more like a November commencement would be slightly more in fitting I'd say with market consensus The other thing is then guidance on the rate-hiking cycle when will that start I don't really think that's too much of a focal point right now So just given the timing. Let's have a look at the charts And so as I said these major pairs of court bit of a bid in the currency space and so cable just coming up to Some of the highs that were Capping some of the first half of the week's price action in the pair We've obviously got an upside target that would be the weekly high that would come in Only around 25 pips above the current price if we move through the R1, which is also the top of that price Kind of inflection point short term between the support area previous age of pack session And yesterday midday, so yeah, definitely keeping an eye there the dollar definitely is on the back foot going into this for sure in the equity space You've got a range that we're respecting at the moment as far as the S&P is concerned and which is identified by These kind of areas here. So 84 and a quarter on the high 73 and three quarters on the low Definitely wouldn't want to pre-commit to any kind of fixed view going into this much more prefer to just see the information Come out and then look to make Decisions accordingly upside areas, of course would be targeting around these previous highs that we were seeing Reference points early in the week and the low of course that was seen in the overnight a pack session And then you got the all-time high not far off as well Up here that was printed just a few days ago as far as gold is concerned again Very choppy now as we go in so it's gonna liquidity is gonna Get pretty thin and you're gonna see it flying around a little bit main point here is just to be patient remain calm You know, don't just jump in and get drawn into the price action That's just understand and compute what it is that he's saying and so yeah near-term levels That I'd be watching would be kind of as I've marked up here accordingly So any downside break of the the candlestick on the 30-minute bar or 60-minute bar to break down Targeting then the low that was seen from yesterday afternoon and then the weekly low printed on Monday a pack session at 1778 on the flip side We've got the R1 acted as resistance early in the futures Oh wait, and then 12 on the upside to keep an eye on Okay, I've got about 90 seconds Oil not really that interested in much more than indirect product by fact of really dollar fluctuations So very much more focused. I think best trades materializing currency Yields so fixed income 10 year bottom right here gold top right probably secondary then equities because it can be a bit messy You generally see more pronounced reactions in the Nasdaq overall, so I'd bear that in mind And we've got a minute to go now, so I'm gonna hand over to the squawk guys Let's listen in as it comes out 10 seconds to the top of the hour and text here from pal His view is that substantial further progress test has been met for inflation Has been clear progress towards maximum employment at July meeting He thought could be appropriate to start taper this year since July has been more progress on employment But also further spread of the Delta variant will be carefully assessing incoming data and evolving risks Timing and pace of taper will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding timing of rate lift off much ground to cover to reach Maximum employment time will tell whether we have reached 2% on a sustainable basis Despite challenges us economy on path to labor market like before the pandemic baseline outlook for continued Progress towards maximum employment and inflation returning to that 2% mark outlook for labor market has brightened Considerably in recent months. So these are fairly constructive comments here from Powell favorable conditions for job seekers should help economy recover Cover quote considerable remaining ground to hit maximum employment Even after asset purchases and elevated holdings of longer-term securities will continue to support accommodated financial conditions Changes that made last year to the statement Are well suited to address challenges incoming data should provide more evidence of supply demand imbalances Inflation at these levels is a cause for concern, but in flat elevated inflation readings likely to prove temporary For now policy is well positioned. So I have seen a bit of two-way action in the T note future over here We are just seeing some positive ticks over here And again, he's just echoing what he's a lot of what we heard in July I'm just going to turn the Squawk off. So yeah, definitely a bit of two-way price action So good example of not getting caught out here by just drawn into price activity overall The point is here. He's not really said a great deal other than what we were kind of suggesting So he has said that things have progressed the view is that substantial further progress threshold has been met for inflation There has been further clear progress towards maximum employment for now policy is well positioned So he's not said we're going to taper. He's not said we're starting tapering in October. He's not said Anything really specific? So this was type of the reaction now We're starting to see that we thought might materialize which was people Overtly looking for clarity and all he's doing is saying. Yeah, we're getting to that point But you guys are gonna have to wait till September and so the market now is showing signs of relief So the dollar's getting hammered pairs are rallying gold spiking higher and equities and bonds are moving higher So this is a monetary policy kind of reaction in the effect of relief We're not tapering tomorrow It's things have progressed. We will be tapering. We just need to wait. So all in all, this is a very measured kind of Concerted effort to just manage expectations. Things are gonna progress and all things equal then I don't think it really alters the timeline I think the September details will come but for now the market reaction is a function of the Overleaning kind of expectation that today was going to kind of yield real clarity and that hasn't really been the case So that's my assumption right now to explain the movement that's happening. So let's have a look at these charts S&P 500 first so S&P 500 you see our pre Marked up levels we had on the chart. So you had a big breakout on The initial so most things dipped and drived because you could have got easily flipped on that first Bloomberg comment Which was talking about Substantial further progress has been met if you actually look on a second by second chart You'll see that the equity market the fixed income market gold market. Everything got hit Very momentarily because that in itself would sound pretty Hawkish, but then it wasn't really followed up and in context with the other comments that he made It's definitely just a measured way of saying things are improving and we're getting further to the point of tapering without Definitive taper are being mentioned So then we turn and look this is why it's super important to mark up your technical levels ahead of time because when it is Quite noisy you're trading a news fixed event. It's too difficult to be trying to judge Multi-asset movement trying to mark out levels have to do that in advance So you can see here that 92 was the first target for that fast money blip and a lot of people would have exited on that Flash move higher now. It's key to see whether or not. We're having another test up at that level Then you're looking for a break pullback and perhaps then we get an extension back up to those all-time highs So still looking fairly bullish at the moment in equities and there you go The S&P just having a little test on there at the moment What's helping that S&P and looks quite nice is look at the Dow now The Dow's had a really nice breakout and there's not a great deal of resistance here in the Dow I'd say until we get a little bit higher up. I'd say probably this level You can see has been a relative inflection point over the course of the last week So 35 355 a little bit higher than where we're trading at the moment As far as the Nasdaq is concerned obviously a breakout of the fairly tight range that we were trading through much of the morning As you would anticipate going into the speech And so we've had a bit of a breakout here and we're coming up to around the highs of some of that price activity We're seeing the back end of Wednesday before we've got a bit of a exhaustion on that initial pop higher So those levels kind of holding up for the moment the market's not too keen to push it on yet In the S&P from what we were just looking at All in all As I said at the beginning of this explanation What's happened here is pretty much in fitting with what we were looking for at the beginning before this event came out It's all pretty much as expected Again, he's not really showed too much. He said enough The show goes on we wait for September and so hopefully if you know if you watch the briefing this morning This is kind of What we were trying to talk about Could be the end result. So, yeah, what a week of waiting To just see this materialize I'm sorry that a pal if you're if you're a prop trader hasn't delivered you something more juicy but I'm afraid this is markets and pals good at his job and Yeah, no real fireworks to report I'm afraid But yeah, what do you guys think let's get some questions in Ah, it's good to have you on the cool Ed Hope you're well. Hope you and the family are all and have been covered free and You're doing good in the market at the minute Yeah, yeah show goes on. Yeah, just so your comment. Absolutely. I think that's right on the money I think nothing nothing surprising here, but I this is what I struggle with I don't know why people were looking for something surprising. I Think it was a bit over-height. I think the market has this behavioral psyche where it tends to latch on to these singular things like just the con just the concepts of tapering not even the duration the composition And so I think we've got a bit overly emphasized on that singular point. And so this is a bit of a Yeah, very short-term relief doesn't really change the needle if you were looking at things like Volatility structures and things like that earlier in the week it was all indicating that the General, you know real money was looking at a situation where this wasn't really going to be too much of a big event the implied kind of volatility rates were, you know 1% which was bigger than a typical Jackson Hole, but very contained and kind of Explanation of behind what we're really seeing. I think the expected outcome has kind of materialized Yeah, who else have we got let me just have a look Yeah, Neil Neil. Thanks for thanks for leaving cob kind comments on the channel. I do appreciate it you know, I do have Conversations with the team about my briefings because I do make some notes in the evening And then I'm up pretty early to deliver that so Neil I do appreciate your comments When I'm putting those out Francis I like your style Big load of nothing have a nice weekend. Yeah, absolutely go and enjoy your weekend But look we just started to see the S&P having another little look on the upside now So let's see if the equity market can break. I'd say here for the S&P though to break higher Let me just make so I've got S&P right NASDAQ center the Dow on the left now from a timing point of view You can see the S&P's at that level, but look it's a bit reluctant to break on through for me I need to see the Dow break this level here with the NASDAQ at that level If it doesn't then the S&P to me feels unlikely like it's gonna push on Despite the threat that it's showing on that resistance level at the moment around 92 93 So you've kind of got a near-term cap Technically here in the NASDAQ from yesterday afternoon and the prior overnight session and in the Inflection point here you can see through midweek in the Dow So keep an eye here if that S&P's gonna push on right the NASDAQ's just having a look now So now I'd want the Dow to follow suit if we see a coordinated Synchronized break then it's on then the S&P can push up. Maybe we get all-time highs. So the NASDAQ's having a look now So let's keep half an eye on that NASDAQ session highs again S&P wanting to it's grinding up now comes the Dow. Dow's just ticking higher now Here comes the Dow on the test first test now at that level for the Dow You see on the left chart here So it was that so NASDAQ now there you go does final break and now it's on you saw that NASDAQ catch a bid there NASDAQ now right at that high so the S&P can can kick on now So the NASDAQ though is a pretty decent level here So any fast money short short-term long positions You'd probably be wanting to book it if not exit the trade at these types of levels I'd say you got your little extra kicker there now the Dow's had a had of how to follow through here There's not too much technically now for the Dow other than the R1 on the upside So the S&P you just looking to see if we can get up there squeeze out a few more ticks up Into all that 98 all-time high again But yeah, you could see then your conviction rate. There you go Dow another push S&P another push So the conviction rate when you're trading these kind of momentum markets is Try what I like to do is try and look at the three indices Together and the timing of exit and management of those trades would be indicative to how all three are moving in synchronization So look the NASDAQ at that level now So look still comfortable to hold that S&P, but now we're a tick at that high now I'd look to take some So I'd say now in that long and the S&P now is optimal Because people will be looking to scale out of that short-term fast money move a tick or so ahead of the high Just so they get the fill. So there you go test now 98 I'd say if you're in that long, you want to be taking quite a bit off now at that level decent move we've had off the back of that That statement Let's just have a check in on some of the other asset classes Yeah, Dow still got a bit of room So yeah currency markets then It's all playing as per the correlation effect in regards to the equity bid yield still on the back foot and Consequently dollar weaker. So cables having a decent time at the moment cabling itself though coming up to a bit of a near-term area of technical resistance So you kind of got those lows here Here and that high momentarily here back on the 18th. We're just around there at the moment So perhaps getting a bit exhausted there with a technical point of resistance and cable just above for the euro Let's just stretch this out to 30 Let's go to 60 Yeah, the euro kind of similar to cable. It's a cabling euro have got pretty significant resistance Kind of obstacles to further appreciation here 1808 in the euro future was that mid August high So that in combination with the cable high So kind of like we were watching those US equities. I'll be watching these Currency markets in similar fashion. So the two markups here is per the rectangle here in cable and there in the euro So again, I'd see that given that they're both quite uniform in areas of resistance as pretty strong areas to hold At this point with the combination of the fact that equities are at the extremity of some of these moves Unless the S&P kicks on and T-notes catch a further bid Then I'd see it hard to see these levels being broken in the currency space But look have a look at the NASDAQ the NASDAQ definitely is As I said before we were heading into the release the NASDAQ tends to be the outperformer underperforms outperforms generally in the equity US space and here we are All-time highs again. Yep test on all-time highs now in the the NASDAQ so final exit now On any of those longs and you can go off and enjoy the bank holiday weekend if you're based in the UK Let's have a look at Any questions at all. Let me know. Yeah, 10 years still catching a bid here. So keep an arm the dollar at the moment because If the 10 year catch is a bid and equities remain higher as well Because the Dow I'd say still got a little bit of room upside the S&P needs to break that level of 98 to push all-time highs T-notes Looking favorable at the moment for that And if that does happen you might be a catalyst for then a bit of a push on those upside levels in those pairs if that happens It's almost self-perpetuates the move and everything gets a little extra wave of Continuation from the directional moves that we've already seen Gold obviously liking it with the dollar move. So yeah nice bid there Upside Pretty choppy up here. We're getting up to that area. I'd say of these kind of highs and lows that previous high We had going back on to the beginning of the week and then just above there You've got the R2 and then the the recent high weekly high at 1812 Definitely got to be super proactive with gold because it flies around for far a Far quicker pace than those other products All right, just a quick one while I've got you all on the call Feel free to Follow me on Twitter. Here's my handle I put out a morning call every morning that Quite a few people find find useful So my notes that I issue ahead of 7 a.m. Every every weekday So feel free to check that out. There's other stuff research reports. I find interesting little snippets of market Intel Things like that. So feel free to follow me on Twitter if you Would like I'm just sharing the links in the chat on YouTube if you're watching there the other thing is amplifies going through some pretty Significant changes at the moment. You might have recognized that our name now is amplify me not amplify trading And the reason for that is we are going through a real positive change and We are pivoting out of the proprietary trading scene which is was our initial founding kind of purpose and the reason for that is because Some of the proprietary technology that we've created is now being adopted by nearly every big bank on Wall Street as part of their recruitment and training Technology that they use and then we work with a number of the world's kind of leading business schools as well So we're very much focusing now on the on the students But obviously I would love to have everyone as part of the community and actually what we're doing is creating a hub That's completely free. It's going to have loads of exclusive content just on that hub But there's going to be other more advanced training and stuff that you can do if you would like So I've popped the link into the chat on YouTube The new platforms a brand new platform. It will have like a hub with loads of cool different broken up segments of information stuff like that You just need to pop in your email and you'll be alerted with some more information when soon as that goes live and what you need to do But otherwise look final look at the charts and I'll let you guys get on focus your trading for the rest of the day so yeah, pretty much a continuation really of what we have been seeing so equities Still on the front foot and there you go. Look t-notes still Edging higher has meant that with the Nasdaq and now pushing on and with some space technically to the upside Now the S&P can open its legs 4500 on the upside now. So new new milestone for the S&P 4500 just printing in the futures Silver gold Still still catching a bid but those major pairs in euro dollar and cable still not able to push on just yet So those areas of resistance still pretty pretty key at the moment all right, I'm gonna leave it at that and Wish you guys a fantastic weekend if you're based in the UK enjoyed bang holiday Gavin hope you all well I hope everything's working out for you and and your friends and loved ones are all safe and sound Simon pleasure Good to have you on the call. I know you often leave comments on the videos So really appreciate that love the engagement on the videos as well. So Definitely appreciate all of the support The recording of this will go up if you need to rewatch it for any kind of learning purposes Feel free to drop me a comment on any of the videos Don't forget as well. I know you guys are watching this on YouTube But don't forget to subscribe to the YouTube channel if you've not already done so There's gonna be tons more content that Eddie and I are putting out on social and generally speaking So my briefings are gonna now start going out early in the morning So they'll be up live on YouTube at around 7 30 every morning So check that out for your kind of morning call As well So don't forget to check out the latest podcast peers and I are gonna jump on and have a conversation actually In probably the next hour and then that podcast episode normally would go out on Friday morning But it's on Apple. It's on Spotify Google Podcasts It's basically where peers and I just kind of talk very informally wrapping up the week of everything You'd need to know and our thoughts about what it means for markets and all the hot topics at that point in time But that is it folks. I'm gonna leave it there wish you guys