 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Lot of NBA and NHL on TV for tonight couple of games like ESPN and ABC in the NBA and one over on TNT in the NHL We're gonna break down those national TV games out line where you can find value in those and then also Break down other spots to find good betting value for the NBA and NHL by talking to Tom Vecchio Picking his brain on tonight's slate of action This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am the managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I mentioned by Tom Vecchio You can find him on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one Tom We are into your kind of year because we've got the NBA and NHL cooking and NFL playoffs going on Which means prop menus are up earlier So it is Tom's time to thrive. How you doing today? I'm doing good Yeah, really interesting time in both sports, you know, we're over the halfway point or right at the halfway point teams are You know kind of deciding if they're gonna push for things some trade rumors going around which obviously impacts player props But we are we're in for a loaded slate of games tonight and we got about a month left until the NBA all-star break I know things get funky around that time Are we in the the danger zone yet for those are we still pretty clear from that perspective? I would say we're pretty clear from that until we get Until we get like substantial rumors where like woe George Shoms is tweeting that like you're making headway on a trade or like something along those lines Whatever phrase they're gonna use that's where we start to get a little iffy, but until then I think we're fine Okay, so we're good to proceed as usual for now We'll discuss ways to do so for tonight's slate with Tom here in a bit But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We got our first look at the divisional round up yesterday breaking down my thoughts on our four NFL divisional round games Where I saw value over at Fandals sportsbook to open the week that is up on the covering the spread podcast feed Fandal TV plus and the fandal YouTube page as well We'll be here tomorrow talking to Dr. Ed Feng to get his read on the four divisional round games to JJ Zachary's and with us Friday talk some player props all right here in at the same podcast feed So make sure you're subscribed if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Over on Spotify also if you want some PGA betting thoughts We gave those on the heat check yesterday with myself brandy. Good Dula breaking down our thoughts for The American Express talk some outrides talk some top tens top 20s Etc. We'll also talking some DFS for the American Express So if you want to get some golf insights head over there by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Where you can also find Tom's daily ISO every weekday for the NBA when it comes to the NFL playoffs You got to win one game at a time when you bet the NFL playoffs on Fandal one game can mean a lot of wins Fandal America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets like the money line the spread and there's all sorts of prop bets Like quarterback passing yards or who will score the first touchdown plus every day There's an NFL playoff game Fandal is giving all customers a no-sweat same-game parlay That means when you combine all your bets for a chance at a bigger payday You'll get bonus bets back even if your SGP doesn't win Make every moment more a fandal and official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in present and select states Minimum three leg parlay required refund issued as non-law trouble bonus bets Which expire seven days after receipt max refund $5 unless otherwise specified Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook dot fandal calm Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler was a fandal comm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee Virginia and Vermont call 1-800 next step or tax next step to 533 for two in Arizona 1-88-789-7777 with the CC PG.org slash chat Connecticut 1-800 9 with it in Indiana 1-800 522 4700 to the KS gambling health comm in Kansas 1-877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health Oregon, Maryland call 1-800 522 4700 in Wyoming or visit 1-800 gambler net in West Virginia Let's turn our focus to begin things off Tom with the NBA tonight where there are a couple of national TV games We got the bucks and calves on ESPN Mads and Lakers on ABC later on so starting with those two games any but that's you like for those four two nights You know start off with the the calves and the bucks Jared Allen for the calves over 11 and a half rebounds. It's sitting at minus 128 this is very clearly a matchup thing and in terms of what the calves need to do in order to a keep this closer B win the game and The calves are still without Evan Mobley. They're starting center, which is obviously a huge thing So immediately they're at a size disadvantage So with Brooke Lopez and Janice Tendakumbo on the other side if this is very clearly at a size disadvantage So that means Dean Wade is there has been their starting power forward George's and Yang is coming off the bench and Tristan Thompson. So it's Not a great matchup. So Jared Allen. We look back at his game look 12 14 16 20 plus rebounds in some of these recent games get a 24 and 23 game I think was 24 23 a little while ago. So Allen Has to do his part in order for the calves to keep that close That means a lot of rebounding from him simply because if they get out rebounded they lose this game nine and a half times out of ten so he's been so good at it and he has to play this role tonight because Brooke Lopez and a tentacumpo and Bobby Fortes and even Chris Middleton, they're all really good at this That's what makes the bucks the bucks they rebound and they don't give other teams have any chance second chance as I should say Allen right now as mentioned 11 and a half rebounds minus 128 a fan dual sportsbook You mentioned the huge totals for Allen. Do you consider? Laddering this like do you consider all markets on Allen? I know that like, you know, even 14 plus rebounds is only plus 175 So it's not like you're getting a massive Price discount by going even a bit higher But it's either kind of guy where you consider all markets or do you think that the the baseline one is the best way to go here The baseline is the best one to go for this game All markets are great when he's playing when they're playing terrible teams like sure We're looking at 16 rebounds against San Antonio and you know 19 rebounds and what is this 23 against? Dallas so like these bad rebounding teams. That's where he excels Normally you could look to Allen against Detroit against Washington against Indiana not tonight Just because it's a matchup isn't there It's like it's a tough matchup to begin with but this has to be his role So the next game they play Washington and you want to see him go for 16 like that's not a bad spot So he won't get greedy. We'll go chair it down over 11 and a half rebounds minus 128 anything else across this game for you Tom. Yeah, that'd be Chris Middleton under 16 and a half points It's minus 122. He's been good for the Bucks this year, but he's just been too up and down For me to feel comfortable with an over Where he's playing relatively consistent minutes, but his point overall is arranging from 20. They're down at four He's at 11. He's at 16 He's up at 20s back down to four like they're all over the place Simply due to the fact that he's not the number one or number two usage player in the offense It's gonna be a tentacumpal It's gonna be Damian Lullard and then you have a cast of characters that are knocking down some shots And if it's just not Middleton's night, there's no way we can trust him to consistently reach 17 points And the problem here is it's not an efficiency thing It's a usage thing because if it weren't efficiency thing like he's clanking shots You could consider parlaying that with the Jared Allen rebound prop because a miss or Middleton could lead to a rebound for Well for for Allen, but it sounds like this is more so just because they've got other guys taking a lot of shot It's not because you're fading Middleton's efficiency It's because the shot volume is not there and thus there's not a lot of correlation between those two recommendations Right there's if he gets hot like he can get there And I guess like you can have 20 points if he gets it like he gets the hot hand that night But it's not a consistent thing Okay So Jared Allen over 11 a free bounce minus 128 Chris Middleton under 16 and a half points Minus 1 22 other game is Mavs versus Lakers and for that game right now Lakers three and a half point favorites total in this game. Not bad to 44 What you seen in this one Tom? That'd be Anthony Davis over 40 and a half points plus rebounds just points and rebounds It's minus 120 High over under both teams in top 11 in the league of an offensive pace right now. Luca is listed as questionable Luca hasn't played in three straight games yet his props are listed Kyra Irving has been on fire as of late his props aren't listed and he's fully healthy. So That's something I'm keeping note of as well. I mentioned that for DFS today But Davis over 40 and a half points plus rebounds the Lakers They're all over the place up and down the winning games are losing games No level of consistency for them except for Anthony Davis who routinely goes for a double double He could easily have 30 35 points alone I love the fact that a player can get close to his prop based on his offensive usage and Waking up tomorrow morning and seeing Anthony Davis with 35 points. I don't think would shock anyone that watches the NBA So to have him add in his normal 8 10 12 rebounds also very realistic for him So 40 and a half points and rebounds. It's minus 120. I think it's fine at that point now Talking about the injury questions for the Mavs would players being ruled out benefit Davis in this market Would it be neutral? How would you view things if we get injury news later on in the math side of things here? Well, if Luke is ruled in it just makes a higher scoring game overall the fact the problem is for the Lakers is like LeBron doesn't play the other against Utah and They still lose. So like their team is just they just don't have it together as a team So they're constantly getting into these higher scoring games just because they're a mess kind of okay So and that's fine for Davis just because he has to do a whole lot even for them just to maintain like a 500 record So it really doesn't matter for the Lakers side of things if Luca plays we're gonna see like a 250 total final score Okay, so Davis is at 40 and a half rebounds plus or points plus rebounds right now at Fandall sportsbook Over is minus 120, which is where Tom is going there now We have eight other NBA games for tonight Tom. Where else to see in value for tonight at Fandall sportsbook? Lot of a lot of options tonight a lot of good options tonight I like the magic plus for the Hawks or one of the worst teams against the spread this year The magic are one of the best the magic are playing really solid basketball this year despite some scoring potential from the Hawks As we see all the time. They are terrible on defense. They get into these insane games and while Trey young You know looks great There's a lot of turmoil within the team and they just don't have it together. They're likely trading to John DeMurray at the Trade deadline maybe to the Lakers potentially. That's the rumor right now And they're just a mess internally like it just is what it is and the magic are solid They're playing solid ball They have a lot of options on offense even though Franz Wagner is not gonna be playing tonight Paul Bankero has been carrying the load if they're doing a great job and add in Jalen Suggs Cole Anthony They have a very well-rounded team and that's why they're one of the best when it comes to against the spread this year They just consistently get it done and it's no one Superstar, you know, Paul Bankero is trending in that direction. They just have a lot of really solid players that can get it done in any matchup The plus four right now for the magic is minus 112 you kind of alluded to this But what do you think is the reason that? Book bookmakers have been a bit slow to catch on to the magic because if you're over performing against the spread That could mean that eventually the books will catch up and it sounds like your read is that they have not done so yet, so why do you think the I Don't know receptors to the magic has been a bit delayed so far this year That's good question And if you see it like right here, the Hawks are terrible against this spread like this is not a like 10 28 and 1 and The magic are was 26 and 14 like very different teams when it comes to against the spread I don't I think it's more like partially do the help the Hawks I don't know and I said this before like I don't know why the Hawks continue to get like this favorability where sure this To me this game should be a one point spread game maybe one and a half sure the Hawks of the home team But they're like bordering on not even making the playoffs or not even making I should say the play in yeah The playoffs with the play in I don't know why I wish I had that answer But if you just consistently look at the magic They are a good team like I said that plays well plays solid ball They don't have a superstar so it's not like one player needs to have the ball every night They have this well-rounded team where Boncair Paul Bankero is a big night even the front's Wagner's out playing when he has a big night It's nearly everyone can do their part So it's not just hinging upon one player having a massive game in order for them to win Yeah, okay So Tom is on the magic plus for a minus 112 Anthony Davis over 40 and a half points plus rebounds minus 120 Chris Middleton under 60 and a half points minus 122 and then Jared Allen over 11 half rebounds minus 128 Let's talk now about some NHL. We got a TNT game coming for tonight That is between the Blackhawks and the Sabres right now Fandall sports But the Sabres pretty heavy favorites I believe no Bidard for this game for the Blackhawks which might influence that number a Sabres minus 280 285 total is very low five and a half over is minus 144 beginning with this game Tom any value stand out to you here The Blackhawks are in a tough spot as you mentioned Bidard is out He has a broken jaw yet surgery he's gonna be out for another five or six weeks at this point Is and since he's already been out for a few a few weeks The Blackhawks are on the second. I have a back-to-back with travel. It's really not looking like a good spot There's basically no reason that the Sabres shouldn't be winning this game the money line There's no value there the three-way money line. There's no value there if you wanted to take a shot on the Sabres puck line That is fine Theoretically based on the money line being so high you're expecting them to win You're expecting them to win by multiple goals if they don't cover by multiple goals something went wrong for them So that would be the only spot I would go I don't I still don't love a puck line bet every now and like just because so much needs to go right So I prefer going to I would say they're two best players which are Tate Thompson for a goal at plus 150 I think that number is too high based on a the matchup And be his role Tate Thompson is their best goal scorer He doesn't have the most goals Leaving for the team doesn't lead the team just because he's missed some time this year He's missed 10 or 12 games, but he is their best goal scorer And he's on the center on the first forward line first power play Chicago's terrible on defense no matter what metric you look at It's the season the month the last two weeks their goals against per 60 minutes in 5v5 situations They're total shot attempts allowed high danger shots allowed. They're always in the bottom five or bottom 10 They're just bad. Tate Thompson great goal scorer is coming off two back-to-back years with 40 plus goals He's their number one option. It should be as straightforward as a game for the Sabres as it possibly is So Tate Thompson goal would be number one and then Rossman Staline their top defender over two and a half shots It is at minus 148 which might be a little bit much for some people I still think that this is a very viable line based on the matchup Like I said Chicago's in the bottom five bottom seven a league over the last month two weeks Whatever it is for course he against which are total shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes in 5v5 situations So Dahlene the top defender on their first defensive line and the first power play unit has always been a an offensive first Defenceman and he is constantly firing the puck. I love the fact that he's coming off a game with no shots on goal This is like okay. Let's let's not mess around Chicago on a back-to-back We need to come away with this wind if we want to have a shot at the wild card Let's just get our best players the puck and we'll move on from there The Dahlene shot prop right now over two and a half is minus 140 148 is the matchup a reason to avoid alt markets Like do you think they could handle this game easily enough where you're not even looking towards alt markets in concern that these guys aren't gonna get like Max ice time in this game. No, I mean this is the kind of matchup What Dahlene can go for four or five shots of you know, you look back at his game Like he goes for four or five shots in any matchup, right? So like this is like a and the fact that the Sabres have fallen behind in the standings This is like a pedal pedal to the floor type of game or like we have they have to win by three goals This is a five-two kind of final game Or they're just they just have to pound the Blackhawks put up the shots get the goals No messing around and listen He can end with a two assists as he normally does in five shots of goal and I wouldn't be surprised Dahlene to get four plus shots in goal plus 175 right now Fandals sportsbook five plus shots is plus three seventy five. So Again, they are aware of the situation. It does seem for sure But Tom does see value on Dahlene coming off a down game Their other one has mentioned was for taged Thompson to score at plus 150 two other games in the NHL for tonight Tom, where else is seeing value for tonight? Really only one other spot and that would be with the Devils Shot prop for them Nico Huescher their captain over two and a half shots minus 128 Jack Hughes is out of a lineup for the Devils. He's been out for a couple games He's listed as week-to-week. This means Nico Huescher moves up from the second forward line to the first forward line Just a roll thing Where it's a slight increase in an offensive role first powerplay time Good matchup going up against the Canadians same kind of situation Canadians and Blackhawks bottom of the league when it comes to goals allowed high danger chances shot attempts allowed Etc. Etc. So the surprisingly I will say that the Devils have been playing solid Hughes out of lineup Which doesn't benefit me excited for the season started I talked about Hughes to win the heart at 18 to 1 and I'm thinking that's dead as the season goes on because he's missed so much time But this is just an opportunity thing where you see an increase in role But the prop really hasn't changed he sure should have been at like two and a half and maybe Minus 110 maybe plus 102 plus 105 in his normal role And he's being bumped up and like I don't see the juice as that much of a difference from minus 110 to minus 128 When he has a factually better role now Yeah, so Nico Huescher over two and a half shots is Minus 128 right now at Vandals sportsbook the implied odds of minus 128 56 point one percent So do you keep that in mind? But as Tom is saying that's not enough given the current role Huescher has now one thing I did want to dig into is you mentioned the high danger danger chances Which to me implies that the value of a shot is higher than it would be in other Situations when you are seeing teams like the Blackhawks Like the Canadians who are letting up a lot of high danger shots Do you consider dabbling into more volatile markets like goal scorer markets where you're kind of benefiting more from those dangerous shots or Do you still want to stick the stick towards the shot volume and go with shot props even when you've got those more dangerous shot opportunities? It's I was the answer is yes to both it depends on who the player is and it also depends on who the what role the player plays you know for example on The avalanche bound the bound the juice kid. He's out right now, but he sits at the front of the net on the power play He's a big dude. He's like six five He sits on the front of the net in the power play so he Jen He is one of the league leaders in high danger chances created and high danger unblocked shots So if we have a team that allows a lie a lot of high danger chances Also takes a lot of penalties He is like in the prime position to generate those chances because a he plays on the power play into being extra opportunity And then B is already good at it to begin with which matches up with the team with what they're struggling So it's situational if we have a goal score with him scoring goals Probably better than attacking his shot prop because he's not a shouldn't be the primary shot taker But with McKinnon and Ranton in on that same line But on a different circumstance if we have a player that plays like on an off wing and it's just a high volume shooter He's gonna have the opportunity based on his role while goals are fluky We can see a much higher floor from him in terms of overall shots just based on what he plays So it's it's like highly circumstantial on a team-by-team player by player basis, right? And I think a lot of that does depend on you know your knowledge of hockey the role these guys play and stuff like that implementing that and not just You know following where the data may say it is taking in that that like, you know, you know watch the game Bro consideration too. I think that does matter in situations like this shots are like Total bases in baseball like you they're like they should be consistent like an RBI like Mike trow could have five total bases and not have an RBI. So that's why I happened a lot Yeah, you may like his RBI prop because it's that plus one I don't know 15 120 whatever it's gonna be but like his total base prop is at minus 120 And that's probably safer than the RBI just because he's gonna get on base and get hits and not hit anyone in Right, right like that was himself. Yeah, right. That's like that's the best comparison like they're like total bases They're relatively projectable rather than an RBI which can be Obviously dependent on team success overall, right and like it's a different market So you're considering team success with that kind of stuff So if you consider anything that it's a good market for trout and more power to you I don't know what you're watching for the angels that conclusion black. Hey, hypothetically, you could be there So right as always it's a case-by-case basis for sure to identify The best market for betting these kinds of props based on the thesis you have going in that is Tom Vecchio make sure you check about on Twitter at Tom underscore of Vecchio one Tom appreciate the time as always Good luck to you for tonight and enjoy all the fun sports. We got on TV for tonight. Thanks for having me Alrighty Thomas on Twitter as mentioned at Tom underscore Vecchio one I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can find me on threads at Jim dots on us and you can follow fan dual research on Twitter at Fan dual research don't forget to subscribe to the podcast to get our show tomorrow with dr Ed Fang the divisional round preview in your covering the spread podcast feed tomorrow afternoon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network