 Good morning, everyone. Buenos dias. Bienvenidos. I'm Steve Johnson, Director of the America's Program and it's my pleasure to welcome you here to CSIS and today's conference entitled Columbia 2020. We truly have an all-star cast with us today and experts and members of the Colombian government and thinkers from the United States as well. Moreover, we have you, our distinguished guests, many of whom are longtime Colombia and Latin America hands. As such, between and after panels, I want to encourage you to talk directly with your counterparts, with our speakers and each other, exchange business cards and share ideas. I want to thank the U.S.-Columbian Business Partnership and Chevron Oil for their sponsorship and efforts to make this dialogue happen. I also want to congratulate our senior associate, Phil McClain, for putting this conference together as well as Patricia Cortes, our counterpart at the Colombian Embassy who has worked very hard to make this happen. So now it's time to turn the ringers on our cell phones to silent or stun mode and if you have any questions for the Q&A sessions, please raise your hand and one of our interns will hand a microphone to you so your questions can be heard. But also, I want to remind you to be sure and state your name and organizational affiliation along with your questions so that we can get to know you better. Now the reason that we're having this conference here today is because it's time to look at the future. Sure, we'll review some of the progress that Colombia has made over the last 10 years, but today it is truly a different country, one that is assuming leadership roles in regional and international arenas and one that is developing its own industries and sustaining more native efforts to consolidate peace and development. One that is on the cusp of a free trade relationship with our own country as well as reaching out to many others across the world. And over the course of the decade that we are in, it may well become even more unrecognizable from the failing state that many thought it was in the 1990s to being a leading market power in the Americas. Now I could go on telling you things like this, but it would be better for you to get it straight from the sort. President Santos is representative here in Washington, Ambassador Gabriel Silva. You can read his biography and the handouts that we gave you as you came in, but suffice it to say he has a broad background in commerce, journalism, and government, having previously served as Minister of Defense under President Alvaro Uribe. And he also got his master's degree in economics and international relations, I might say, at Johns Hopkins University. So without further delay, I would like to call on Ambassador Silva to frame our panels on consolidating peace, outlook for the economy, and U.S.-Columbia relations looking forward, followed by about 10 minutes of questions and answers. Ambassador Silva. Good morning. I want to express our special gratitude to Steve Johnson, Director of the Americas program, and to Phil McLean, an all-time friend, senior associate, as well as to all the team here at CSIS for putting together this conference, Colombia 2020. In addition, our gratitude to the U.S.-Columbian business partnership and to Chevron Oil because of their commitment to discuss the future of Colombia and their support for this unique event. And to all of you for having an interest in discussing the future of my country, a very special gratitude to our very distinguished guests and panelists. They are going to share their wisdom and their views very generously, and we owe them a lot because of that. I have to say that sometimes the ongoing realities and challenges usually don't allow the luxury of reflecting upon the future, and that makes this gathering quite special. Usually we are so overburdened by the need to respond to the everyday issues that we forget that is very important to think and to work based on what could be the future of our country. If we need to summarize how we see Colombia in a decade, how I see Colombia in 10 years, I will say Colombia will be even more different than today, very different and different in a very positive way. Certainly very different from the Colombia we had a decade ago. The transformation of our country has been astonishing. The changes have been so dramatic that I do not hesitate to say that we have today a new Colombia, a new Colombia in all the aspects that are going to be discussed today. And I can only compare this new Colombia to what happened with Eastern Europe when the Berlin Wall fell. It's Colombia that everyone is discovering, a Colombia that was a secret for many. We were hiding from the rest of the world by a wall of violence and terrorism. That wall is there no more. We have our own Berlin Wall moment, but it took a decade to get there. Because this didn't happen overnight. We have to acknowledge that this process is a long-term process. 20 years ago, Colombia adopted a new constitution to impressing Gaviria and adopted a strategy of deepening market-oriented economic reforms. 20 years ago, and probably Phil McLean remembers this well, our country started a long march to recover its freedom from organized crime, terrorism and drug trafficking. If you want to explain the new Colombia, a lot has to be traced to these fundamental structural changes that provided the economic and institutional foundations that allowed the dramatic change we have seen in the last 10 years. But a catalytic trigger of change was clearly Colombia's people decision to confront terrorism, organized crime, paramilitary groups and violence. Under the leadership of President Albert Uribe, our country fought back. As former Minister of Defense, I can attest to the courage of the Colombian people and of our armed forces with their sacrifices. And because of their commitment, passion and patriotism, we were able to be where we are. What happened in the last decade is not short of a second independence. We achieve our second independence, getting rid of many of the expressions of violence that had plagued the country for decades. It's still a work in progress, but we are headed towards a final resolution of that issue. Let me follow the agenda that was set for today and try to provide some ideas for the discussions that are going to take place. You need to put in context the discussion of the 2020 goal for Colombia. That context, let me say, needs to refer a little bit to the past. Because without knowing where we come from, it would be very difficult to see where we are headed. And I will say that in terms of violence and terrorism in Colombia and the presence of organized crime, Colombia has improved dramatically. And the numbers show that between 2002 and 2010, the homicide rate fell by 46%. Today, we have a homicide rate that is similar to many in some of the key cities around the world, and I mean cities in even the developed countries. We had almost a 92% reduction in kidnappings. In terms of terrorist acts, we got a 71% reduction. And I could go on and on quoting different numbers, but the most important evidence of that change is the hope that Colombians have on their own future. With violence, there is no hope. With violence, there is only a pessimism. Now, the Colombians are committed to their country, are committed to their future. But not only the Colombians, many multinational companies, many investors, many people around the world are betting on the future of Colombia. Clearly, Colombia is very different from the past and is creating tremendous opportunity. Of course, I have the duty not only to talk about the positive things, but also about the challenges, because that's going to be one of the key discussions during the day. If you ask me what is the challenge or the most relevant challenge I see for the security front, I will say that I am particularly concerned with the illusion of victory. The illusion of victory means that we get deceived into believing that we have already achieved the end of the internal struggle or the end of the presence of drug trafficking and organized crime. They have been minimized, they have been marginalized, but we need to get to the end. We need to get to the goal line that will require certainly a strong commitment by the U.S. and that the U.S. doesn't declare victory and run. We need to have for many years to come that special relationship that was created initially by President Pastrana and President Clinton when they launched Plan Colombia and that supported our efforts to recover our country for Colombians. We need to continue with that approach and it's a very important approach not only for Colombia, of course for the U.S. too, but for the region. I want to highlight the fact that Colombia is playing an increasingly important role in guaranteeing that our experience is shared by other countries that are suffering and experiencing similar challenges. Colombia currently has aid and support and cooperation arrangements with more than 12 countries in the region and growing. The role for Colombia is critical not only to consolidate the achievements in Colombia, but also to help our region and the Americas move forward in defeating terrorism and defeating organized crime. In terms of the economy, I will say that since the market reforms of the early 90s and the emphasis on free trade, Colombia entered a virtuous cycle that clearly was exponentially enhanced by the outcomes on the security front. This virtuous cycle has changed Colombia dramatically in economic terms. I am sure that many of you have read the numbers and seen the figures and seen the figures, but I want to go through some of them because they illustrate strongly how our country has changed. In 2000, our country had a GDP close to 94 billion. A decade later, we have a GDP closer to 290 billion. It is a dramatic jump ahead in terms of growth, economic well-being, and purchasing power. Our growth rate certainly has not been as spectacular as others, particularly in Asia, but it has been very consistent. If you want to highlight the importance of the economic well-being and purchasing power, I would like to highlight the importance of the economic well-being and purchasing power, which is something about Colombia in terms of economic policy. It is very consistent, has kept the course. Probably we are a little boring for many of you or many analysts, but consistency is what really defines Colombian economic policy. We have been able to grow in a consistent way, even during the latest global recession. Most important, the economic income per capita has almost tripled in the last decade, and our trade with the world has also multiplied several times. We had 10 years ago a trade that was close to $24, $23 million, now it is close to $90 billion, a decade later. In historical times, a decade is nothing. Very few countries have achieved this kind of success or outcome. And a very relevant indicator, Colombia used to have 14.5 percent investment rate, 14.5 percent of GDP. Now it is close to 25 percent. Without investment there is no growth, and one of the factors that hampered investment clearly were distortions on the economic side, but most important, distortions on the political side and on the risk side. The best way to summarize what we have achieved is the recognition by the rating agencies that gave Colombia back its investment grade status for its debt. It is a strong signal that has to be acknowledged and reflects where we are headed. When many countries in Europe are losing their investment grade status, Colombia is moving ahead in the right direction. In terms of our economic growth, where are we headed? In 2000, we had a GDP per capita at purchase parity close to $6,000. In 2015, we'll be close to $13,000, and in 2020, we will be close to $15,000. Of course, that's what the numbers and the projections say we have to see. I personally believe it's going to be faster and bigger than the numbers currently discussed by the experts. So Colombia has achieved something that is not usual, and in a decade, Colombia become a relevant country for the global economy, and in particular to the U.S. economy. And that's a very welcomed challenge, a change, because clearly we have a new reality. We have a new country. We have a new Colombia. Colombia has the third largest population in Latin America, 46 million. It's not a small market, and most important is a very diversified market. We have many cities, many regions, and a lot of young people. Colombia is the fourth largest economy in Latin America and growing, probably going to be the third very soon. And for a decade, Colombia has had an average growth over the world's average. This is to illustrate that today Colombia cannot be dismissed in economic terms and also as a very important and relevant market for the U.S. and others. I want to then move ahead into the issue of foreign trade. I don't know why I have the suspicion that it's a topic that probably interests you significantly these days. And rightly so, because we are on the verge of having the FDA between Colombia and the U.S. introduced in Congress and hopefully approved by Congress. But I want to say something that could sound a little bit arrogant, but it's true. Today the FDA between U.S. and Colombia is much more relevant for the U.S. than for Colombia. And I want to explain why. Colombia is probably the most friendly market for the U.S. products and services. Colombia is probably one of the most receptive countries and economies in terms of foreign direct investment. Colombia has a growing market and expanding very fast. I will give you some numbers that probably we can put in context what I'm saying. Colombia is the fifth largest market for mining oil and gas machinery in the world for the U.S. Actually, we are the sixth largest market for one of the biggest companies in that area, in that field. Colombia is one of the largest markets for food products from the U.S. Colombia is also the second most important market for U.S. ports in South America and the fifth most important in the world for industrial products. So it's not an irrelevant market, it's not something to be dismissed. And Colombia most important has moved ahead. It has been very painful to wait for five years to get where we are. The FDA was signed five years ago and we invested significant efforts, political and otherwise, to get to have these treaties signed and introduced to Congress and approved. This delay has cost us dearly, in particular to the U.S. in terms of the jobs that have been destroyed. And I'll give you an example. Colombia, excuse me, the U.S. used to have 46 percent of the Colombian ag imports market in 2008 because we moved ahead and we need to move ahead because this delay in the FDA was hurting our own prospects. We move ahead in signing trade agreements with many countries. In 2002, we had two FDAs. Now we have 13 and negotiating five more. And those that have come in in force in the last few years are certainly creating a more friendly market for other countries, not by our own design, but because of the lack of moving forward in the U.S. here in Washington. And the market share for the ag sector in the U.S. was 46 percent in 2008. Now it's 20 percent and diminishing. When I was embossed over 17 years ago, and thank you, Steve, to remind me how old I'm getting, 17 years ago was my first return here. China was 22nd trading partner for Colombia. Now it's the second trading partner and growing. And that's very unfortunate in one sense. Is that the complementarity between the Colombian and the U.S. economy is very significant. We don't compete in anything, or basically in anything. Very few items on our trade and on our economies compete against each other. And so it's the perfect, the perfect match. We don't produce cars or machinery. We don't produce industrial goods that are consumed in the U.S. We produce agriculture, goods, mining and energy, light manufacturers, and most of all, the best coffee in the world. And we are poised for a very close relationship, and clearly it allows for much more. Colombia is structurally a very complementary economy with the U.S. And the U.S. is missing that opportunity. I cannot understand why, really, from an economic perspective. After investing $7 billion in Colombia, of course, the Colombians invested close to $80 billion, but these $7 billion that the U.S. provided were critical for different reasons. After investing that amount of money, now that it's time to return to the U.S. economy. And the U.S. economy is very significant. To reap the benefits, the U.S. is opting out. Fortunately, the Obama administration changed course and decided to move ahead with all the FDA's pending to be approved. We acknowledge and we believe that's the right way to go. We acknowledge this effort, and particularly in difficult times for the U.S. It's a bold move by President Obama that we appreciate, and we trust that with his leadership and his government's leadership, we'll have an FDA before the end of the summer. Going beyond the FDA, and talking more about the 2020 horizon, I will only say that Colombia will have a balanced economy, and that in which, because of the reforms introduced by President Santos in terms of the fiscal stability of the country, and because of his leadership and knowledge of economic policy, I think that it's going to take the country a step ahead. Standing on the shoulders of all the successes of the last decade, Colombia is going to move ahead. It's going to be very different in a decade. It's going to be very prosperous in a decade. But President Santos has not only focused himself on the security and the economic fronts. He has made significant changes and significant progress in key issues that will resolve the still pending items related to violence. His law of land restitution to those peasants displaced by violence, and the law of compensation to victims of violence, are a new paradigm and are the natural follow-up of the successes achieved by the Democratic Security Policy. And Colombia is reconciling itself with its own people. That's a major step forward. To finalize, because I don't want to bore you, and most important, you have wiser people to talk about these things here in the room, also that in the U.S.-Columbia relations, we are also experiencing a deep change. When I was in Basel 17 years ago, I have to admit that 99 percent of my time was devoted to three issues, drugs, drugs, and more drugs. Those were the three issues that we were discussing then. Now, we have a high-level dialogue between the two countries in which we have multiple interests and multiple topics to talk about. Energy, certainly democracy, technology, the environment, and many others. This is very new for us. For all of us who have been involved in this business of foreign relations and bilateral relations, I'm sure that my friend Juan Carlos Esguero, who was my predecessor several years ago, knows, those of us who have been involved in this, we always aspired to achieve this wider agenda. We called it in Spanish, we wanted to desnarcotizar la agenda. We wanted to make drugs one of the issues, but not that issue. We're getting there. Why? Because Colombia is a different country, and Colombia can be a very effective regional partner for the U.S. By 2020, I expect that Colombia and the U.S. move from partnership to a permanent strategic alliance, very similar to the one that the U.S. has with other regions and other countries. Very similar to the one that the U.S. has with Europe or Japan. We certainly aim for that, and I believe it can happen. To conclude, I will say that for all of us who have lived in public service these last 30 years, for all of us who have suffered Colombia and Colombian problems in the last 30 years, for all of us who have worked permanently to try to overcome those challenges and those problems, today is a very important day, and is the day in which hope was, again, the word that conducts our affairs. Colombia is very hopeful, and it's going to be very prosperous. Thank you. I think we've got a couple of minutes for about three questions, and before we get started with the next panel. So this gentleman over here, if we could get a mic up here. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Thank you, Mr. Ambassador. My name is Matt Shul. I'm a reporter with Inside U.S. Trade. On the Free Trade Agreement, which you talked about, one of the important steps to having Congress consider the deal is for Colombia to meet a second set of commitments in the labor action plan that President Obama and President Santos agreed on in April. And the day for doing that is June 15th, and I just wanted to ask you whether Colombia has indeed completed everything that it said it would do by June 15th. I know that's Wednesday, so they have two more days, but judging from how Colombia responded before, they did so in advance, and I just wanted to know if Colombia has done that and whether you have transmitted the necessary documentation of that to the U.S. government. And that's basically it. You seem really optimistic on getting the FTA by the end of the summer. I just wanted to ask you why, also on that point. Why are you so optimistic? There's still this problem with trade adjustment assistance, another blockage. So anyway, thank you for your thoughts on this. I have to mention that Colombia's success in the economic front has a lot to do with consistency. And a technocratic consensus that has a lot to do with the economic front has helped Colombia significantly to keep its markets open and to reduce inflation and to have sound macroeconomic policies. The other aspect of that, and this will be my only answer to your first question, is that Colombia always fulfills its commitments. In terms of why I believe the FTA can be approved before the end of the summer, first of all because of President Obama's leadership and also because of his commitment to do so. And I could, of course, enter into discussing the details of how things are going in Congress and so on and so forth, but you probably will be very bored by that. You will be very happy as a reporter for Insight Trade, but the rest of the room will be a little bit bored. But I am convinced that the commitment by the administration, by President Obama, is significant, is real, and we are working hand in hand to get to that goal. Any other questions? If not, let's give another round of applause for Ambassador Silva.