 Good morning and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 2nd of September 2019 and the time has just gone 10 30 British summer time And it's been a recently subdued start pretty quiet start to the European session Euros on equity markets like the DAX and the CAG grow slightly higher. Abundant volatility is fairly low while the 1,600 is doing quite well, but that's largely due to the move to the downside in the British pound Volatility is expected to be fairly low to the across all financial markets because the US are on holidays as it is Labor Day in the US They're gonna pick news stories of the past couple of days have been now that we're now that we're now that we're on the 2nd of September There's been a slight, you know, ratcheting up of the tensions between the US and China Very different tariffs that were announced came into came into effect on the 1st of September. So The United States and I've now are now living tariffs on 212 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports and they intend to have another Imposed tariffs on 188 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports between now and mid September so mid December mid December Come of the Christmas on the flip side of that China Of the 75 billion dollars for the tariffs on US goods that were announced Not too long ago. Some of those tariffs came into play. So the tariffs on oil came into play yesterday Early September September 1st. So things between the US and China have a lot got a Getting worse, but this is a bit of optimism out there because the US and China are due to you have a Have a meeting due to meet to discuss trade this month. So the fact that even though Tariffs are Increasing the fact that they both sides have agreed to meet He seemed to be positive And that is part of the reason why there there isn't, you know, a major sell-off on American workers this morning Well, it's something going on. We've had some larges be large speaking out of Europe Poor disappointing manufacturing numbers the we've had the very different Final readings of the manufacturing PMI reports from a number of your your your European countries the Spanish the Italian and the German all came in very much attraction territory the French the French figure came in showing it's a very slight Growth rate nothing to fifty one point one anything well fifty point zero is a expansion So nothing too overly impressive and the UK really came in at forty seven point four. It's lowest reading since late 2012 So commit late 2012 so really good indication of how the uncertainties in relation to Brexit are playing out all across Europe on both sides of the English Channel I'll take a look now at the week ahead said the major events of this week The weekend can be found on a website cmcmarkets.com under insights and then under news and analysis So looking ahead to tomorrow. We have a industry decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday We have first half figures from restaurant group Wednesday We have a raft of the services PMI reports from from a from countries all around the world on Wednesday, we have the Bank of Canada into interest rate decision On Wednesday, we have second quarter figures from slack technologies Wednesday, we are full your figures from the Nel group Thursday, we have we second quarter figures from zoom video communications. I'm on Friday We have the all-important US non-farm payroll figures. So most likely The non-farm payrolls will be the highlight of the week in terms of macroeconomic events I'll take a look now at the major markets starting off with the FTSE 100 So I think the kind of wider trend to our 2019 has been to the upside and you can see here despite the fact We are a very sharp set off between late July going into August We did see seem to have found a bit of a bottom in around this area here. The market has been pushing higher We're we're firmly comfortably above this red line here at the journey moving average And we're pressing higher and we're not too far away from the highs that were achieved in early early to mid August And if you can press on higher from here in the FTSE 100, we could be looking at retesting this area here in around the 7306 mark and if we go beyond that we could be looking heading up towards this blue line here 50 moving average and that comes into play And that comes to play in around 7,380 there they're about we can see on a few occasions that that particular metric acted as Support and to an extent resistance not in recent months metric has been important in the past It makes it more likely it will be so in the future But brought you no guarantees, but I should we go beyond that level if you were looking at our cleaning this area here in around 7,470 On the flip side if you did the market does manage to turn over on itself again And we do fall back below the tour to moving average the red line just south of seven thousand two hundred We can really get retesting this this area here. This is all here in around seven thousand four fifty down to seven thousand Take a look now at the the backs over Germany Similar picture spite the fact that we've had a very fairly sharp sell off The market seemed to found a floor found a bottom in on this area here in and the time frame will be kind of mid August we have been pushing higher recently But what separates the tax from the first hundred is the fact that the at the tax is actually they have the recent highs But she managed to take out the the highs of the middle of August So we're at now levels that last seen since very much early August So kind of you know, I'm talking about a one-month high Not too far away from one month high on the decks if you look the press on higher from here We could be looking at targeting the kind of cycle actually important 12,000 metric and if you go beyond that we could be looking at targeting this blue line here They're 50 moving average that comes in the play in around 12,000 and 80 You can see here on a few occasions that act as resistance and support and support here not too long ago Once again metric has been been important past It makes it more likely there will be so in the future and should we see a size of break beyond the 50 moving average We could be looking at having back up for this general area in around at 12,400 similar though if the market Takes it as a as a sharply of lower and we fall back below the turn to moving average at 11,674 and head back head back below 7,600 it could take us back down for this area here in around 11,270 Take a look at what's going on on the Dow Jones over the US So the US markets were in better shape in the in their European counterpart students when they when they had a pretty sharp sell-off Going into it in early August. We can see a nice series here one two three all of them Of higher lows so the market was kind of it was The first few weeks of all with didn't really managed to kind of make any higher highs But it's making a clear series of higher lows so that's giving it an early indication that the market even though wasn't driving higher It wasn't going any lower either So the market did measure the highs of last Friday did manage to kind of take out the highs of early August I pulled back ever so slightly the things and we're not too far away from this balloon on here The fifth and moving average with things are looking relatively good for the Dow Jones and if you can hold above the kind of 26,000 mark of its psychological number We could look you could look at retesting the 50 moving average which comes to play at 26,568 And if you go beyond that we could be heading up toward the 27,000 mark And then if you go beyond that we can make a retesting the all-time high If the market does manage to turn on turn on itself again We could be looking heading back towards this red line here the jury moving average at 25,643 And if you go below that you could be looking heading down toward these levels here that the level last seen in kind of late and mid-August in around the kind of 12,000 sorry apologies 25,200 and 80 a region having a the S&P 500 similar situation the S&P 500 to the Dow Jones The price actually has been fairly similar or by the highs of Friday very briefly eclipsed the highs That were achieved in mid mid and early August so the market also as a nice series of You see a nice series of higher lows along here So that sometimes it would appear that this upward trend is going to continue and if that is the case We could be looking at retesting this blue line the fifth and moving average at 2,944 and a slice of break above that could it could kind of take us back and Track up towards the 3,000 mark if you do have a firm as you kind of turn lower and move it to the downside You can make a heading back toward this this old here in around 2,850 and if you have a decent break below that it could take us back down toward this red line the tourney moving average Which comes into play at 2,000 sorry 2,808 So a lot of the uncertainty we've seen in equity markets in the last few weeks Has been a bit major has made a major of major benefit to gold and gold only this there last week last Monday He did a fresh six-year highs, but he was sitting quite a number six of new six-year highs and it is latest six-year high Last Monday, so it's very much a solid upward trend if we're kind of currently trading at 15 23 15 24 if it's the press on higher from here you could be Heading back up towards the 1555 metric and a movie on that to make it more likely that we'd actually Continue on up towards the kind of 1560 65 mark And you kind of move to the downside In gold could see support coming to play in around this area here You know psychology important 1500 mark maybe just below that in at kind of 1492 1493 And even if you go below that support could be found in this zone here in around 1480 And as we can see recently seen a nice series of higher highs and higher lows Classic upper trend so buying on the dip has been a popular strategy So we do measure drift drift drift lower in the gold market. We could see fresh buyers enter the fold Sticking with the commodity theme looking at Brent crude oil now So obviously all has been with the markets has been impacted by the u.s. China trade situation particularly now that The u.s. Sorry apologies that that China is input is imposing tariffs on u.s. All on u.s. All being imported into China Concerns about the global economy of all the also added to concerns that the demand for for oil will be Dropped in the next few months and next few weeks in months So take a look here. The oil market has been a fresh product has been a fairly clear clear downward trend Even though in recent weeks you have measure press higher and we've seen a series of Higher lows the market has much as we can have failed and take out the highs of early of mid August And essentially why we remain below this red line here the truly moving average Which comes to play just just in around sixty four dollars and twenty three cents. Why we remain below it It's likely that the more kind of the wider downward trend of recent months is going to continue I feel express and lower from here We could look heading back down toward this area here down around fifty six dollars a barrel And if you have a size of break below that it could take us back down towards fifty two dollars a barrel but if you didn't manage to get a press on higher from here and We do measure can continue the kind of slightly upward trend that we've been seeing In recent kind of recent couple of weeks We could be looking at retesting this zone here the the tourney moving average and notice how it acted as for decent resistance In the HLI and if the metric actually the path makes it likely that it will do so in the future But if you do must take about take out The dirty moving average, they can look at retesting this area here and that comes back. That's the highs of If early July, I'm sorry mid-July rather and that's in around the sixty eight dollars and 18 cents mark Take a look at WTI so WTI Broadly speaking in recent months, especially since for the last five or six weeks in a fairly clear example of downward trend you know nice that my series of Lower highs along here granted. We have seen a couple of them. We have seen The lows of late August didn't take out the lowest of early August in the market is going to press you higher But it's almost like it's going to decide in which way it's going to turn next but ultimately if it holds below These these levels in here in around fifty seven dollars It's likely that that to get a bit more recent wider downward trend is going to continue And if you can afford all these areas here and take out the recent low in run fifty three It could take us back down toward this area here down on the fifty bucks per barrel zone If the market does match you're going to break above the kind of fifty seven metric We could be likely heading up towards the kind of sixty or up to sixty point eighty three mark up around here Coming on to some currencies the euro versus the US dollar first off So you've seen a continued weakness in the the euro versus the dollar We fell back together, you know multi-year lows on Friday the lows of today managed to take out Most much managed to take up those those it again. So now back at levels not seen I think it's about eighty thousand seven So it's levels not seen since made it out in seven to give indication of how weak the euro dollar market is So it's in a nice to the pretty clear-cut example of a downward trend And we're currently in it what on one spot oh nine fifty eight And if you continue to kind of press a lower from here We could be looking at going to head down towards the one spot oh nine mark if you did much to bounce back The resistance could be found in around the one spot eleven mark But we'd really need to be taking out this area here in a one spot eleven sixty four The highs of late August if you want to get any kind of standard chance of heading back up towards The highs of early August in at one spot mid 12 sorry one spot 12 49 in around this zone here and Lastly, we'll take a look at the British pound versus the US dollar. So Pound on has been a very clear example of a downward trend The market, you know, we did this stage a bit of a bounce back here between Kind of early or August to late August But the market appears to be turning over itself yet again I've seen you can pressing lower and if you look to drive lower from here I'm looking heading back down to come towards the other the one heading down towards 120 If you do, however, but I'm just gonna press on higher from here We could run into resistance potentially at this blue line here the 50 moving average and that comes to the play at one spot 2336 and if you go beyond that we could look at targeting this area here in on kind of one spot 24 region We did see a bit of consolidation in that area previously so makes it more likely you will be important in the future That's all for me in relation to this video if any comments to make in this video or any of the other videos We've met here at CMC markets. Please feel free to leave review of your news. Thank you very much