 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Axis of Trader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great weekend. Hope everybody had a good trading day. If you are brand new to the channel, please like, subscribe, share all that good stuff. Tell a friend, tell a friend about the unbiased technical analysis movement that we try to, you know, install every single day. So let's talk about the market. If you watched the weekend video, you kind of knew two things. Number one, because of Friday's moves, we got below the 50-day moving average. We talked about the two levels, both the bulls and the bears needed to pretty much defend, okay? The bulls needed to get back above the 377 level, which is the 50-day moving average. The bears needed to get below the 364 level, which is a 10-day moving average. I also had a plan to look at all the names that had technical damage, names like Apple, names like NVIDIA, right? Names like Tesla. Tesla was definitely the first one on my list because I was looking for a potential 50-day. Unfortunately, in life and unfortunately in trading, we sometimes don't get things that we want. And that's kind of the message that we always try to really drive home every single day. You have an opinion. You have a bias on your research. You're waiting for it to play out. And sometimes, again, life's not fair. Trading's not fair either. However, there is kind of one of these silver linings and everything. And I try to really pull myself in a situation to be prepared on both sides. If you guys remember on the weekend update, I was hoping for an up open because usually when you get technical damage, and again, this candle on Friday took down literally three days worth of buying. What we wanted was a gap up and then if these stocks would have went lower, it would have been a phenomenal green to red below Friday's channel shorts. The problem was if you look at the pre-market prices, every stock that I talked about potentially with a really good short setup over the weekend, Apple, right? Apple came out with news. Reportedly, their iPhone 15 sales were down in the first 17 days of sales. The China sales set to be down about 5%. However, those sales were up double digits in the United States. And because of that news, right? Because of that news, Apple, if you look at Apple pre-market, right? Here's Apple pre-market. When you look at Apple pre-market, Apple was down, right? Apple was down a pretty decent amount, right? This is all in pre-market. Apple was down nearly $3, right? Second of all, we talked about over the weekend video was I wanted to shorten the video. I said, well, if the video loses the 10-day moving average, well, it could get hit. Guess what? NVIDIA, right? NVIDIA pre-market was down as well. NVIDIA was down about $5.5 pre-market. So I was like, oh, gone. So my first trade, first setup, Apple was gone. My second setup, NVIDIA was gone. Surely Tesla is gapping up, right? All we got to do is wait for the 50-day break on Tesla, and I think we could get a really good trade. Here is the problem. You kind of get the point, right? Here's the problem. Tesla, for whatever reason, right? For whatever reason, was down as well. Tesla was down about $4.5 pre-market. I was like, you got to be kidding me, right? Every single setup that I wanted for the weekend was gone pre-market. And the only thing that was left was, well, let's see if they could rally prior to the open, because at least what we'll do is if they start breaking down on the daily session, those trades will still be valid. Here's the problem. They never retested back those levels, and the markets started going grinding higher. And I was like, wow, that's kind of a weak way to start the day. But again, as we say all the time, life gives you lemons. You make chocolate chip cookies. Again, it's all what you look at the market. It's all how you perceive life. It's all how you perceive trading. The only thing we can control, guys, is our research, our emotions, our game plan, right? Our common sense. The one thing we can control is overnight futures action, overnight price action. We can't unfortunately control any of that. So with all the setups that we were looking at to the downside, they were absolutely gone. And what the market started to do was starting to grind higher and grind higher and grind higher. And if you look at the final tally of the day, you'll see that all the major moving averages were up over 1%. Here's the problem, right? And here's kind of what we talk about the unbiased side of technical analysis and how we approach every single trading day. The good news is, right, that the market was up, right? The market was up. All major benchmarks were up over 1.1, 1.2%. Here's the bad news. The bad news is this was an inside day, right? This was an inside day of Friday's really aggressive candle. We didn't take out the highs. We didn't take out the lows. And what that means basically is stocks were in the middle of the ranges for the exception of Microsoft, right? And there was literally only two pivots for the whole day, right? And basically what a pivot is, any stock that confirms the previous day's highs starts building above the previous day's highs. That's a pivot to the upside. Any stock that starts building below the previous channel's low, that is a pivot to the downside. We literally have two. And if you look at the majority of the names, I'm talking about literally the majority of the names on the Nasdaq 100, you'll see there was only two stocks, literally two stocks that took out the previous day's highs. One was Microsoft. One was Microsoft. And one was NVIDIA. We'll get to the pivots in a second. So here's kind of where we start tomorrow's session, okay? Number one, the bulls need to, we talked about this on the weekend video, bulls needed to reclaim 367. They did that. That's a bullish thing. The bad news is they didn't take out the previous day's range. So it's an inside day. So here's what needs to happen tomorrow from the bull scenario and from the bear scenario. The bull scenario, the bulls need to get above 371.20. If they could get above 371.20, that will pretty much nullify Friday's sell-off, right? Everybody see that? It's Friday's highs. What the bears need to do is get below the 10-day moving average that we talked about on the weekend update and get below 364 on the close. What that's going to do is confirm Friday's price channel. So we are stuck in the middle of the channel right now. You're not getting a phenomenal potential for tomorrow one way or another. However, there are names that do look good. There's definitely names that do look good. Tesla is not out of the woods yet, right? Tesla is not out of the woods yet. It obviously did not confirm the 50-day moving average. You can see it still. The low of the day was that 248 level. But that was that 248 level that came out pre-market and it kind of snapped right back on the opening range. So that really never got confirmed. So it's still not out of the woods just yet. Here's where it gets a little tricky for everything, right? Number one, we have a lot of data coming out this week. We always have a lot of data. We always have a lot of Fed governance coming out. And when you have a market that is in the middle of the channels, right? Not taking out the previous days high, not taking out the previous days low, we're kind of in limbo. So what we need to do with pretty much every stock, and I don't care if you're a bull bias trader, if you're a bear bias trader, the moral of the story is these stocks need to confirm their channels. If we're sitting in the middle of their channels, like you're going to see examples of a million stocks, right? Like look at Amazon, right? Amazon didn't take out Friday's high. Amazon didn't take out Friday's low. Look at a name, for example, like AMD, right? AMD didn't take out Friday's highs, didn't take out Friday's low. So the bottom channels are all at play here, right? They're literally all at play here on every single chart. And the upside channels are all play as well because they need to still confirm and take down and nullify the previous days range as well. So we're in a little bit of limbo, we're in a little bit of purgatory, but that's what the business is, okay? Again, like we've been saying this for years, the market doesn't owe you anything. When I hear people say the market is good, the market is bad. There's no such thing as the market is good, the market is bad. The market is there to facilitate on an orderly, constructive basis for buyers and sellers. That's it. It doesn't owe you anything. It doesn't promise you anything. It's not your personal playground. It's not supposed to make you happy, sad, or indifferent. It's just there, right? It's like my mother-in-law. She's just there. She's like a piece of furniture. She's just there. She's just not going away. That's what the market is. So our job based on the research that we see from the night before is try to find the clearest path of the goal line. Not the sexiest, not the easiest of social media deems, the clearest path of the goal line. So when we start the day in the middle of the channels, we're going to need to let what we always talk about, let the market do the heavy lifting for us. Sometimes you need to take a step back to take a couple of steps forward to see what the market's going to do. Because if you're a guesser, you're not going to be in this business for a long time. Now it's easy for somebody to turn around and go, well, I think the market's going to go up. Why? Based on because you want it to go up? Or another person goes, well, I think the market's going to go down. Well, why? Because you want it to go down? We are in the middle of the range, guys. You can see it for yourself. Again, I don't need to convince anybody. We didn't take out Friday's highs. We didn't take out Friday's lows, right? That means we're in purgatory. We're in the middle of the ranges. So we need for the next couple of days, hopefully it'll rectify it by tomorrow. What we need for tomorrow is for the market to finally get a direction, either confirm Friday's sell-off or nullify Friday's channel for us to start moving higher. Here's some notable bets, right? As we know, Wednesday is the start of our earning season for technology names. I start with the big beta names, right? We have Netflix. We have LAM Research. And we have Tesla. If you guys remember, again, there's nothing to do with a potential setup on Tesla. If you guys remember, for the last couple of weeks, we've been seeing some pretty good option flow coming in on Tesla, right? Last week, we saw specifically, we saw they were coming in for the 280s. They were coming in for the 290s. They were coming with some November 300 calls. Today, we saw one notable bet, right? If you see here, nothing really stands out here pretty much the whole day. This is like towards the end of the afternoon. But if you scroll down here and take a look here, someone around 2 o'clock, right? Somebody came out and bought 6,500 of the weekly 265 calls and bet 2.4 million. Why is that significant? Well, somebody's wagering $2.5 million into earnings. That's a significant bet, right? It's $10 out of the money. I believe what I read was, I think there was a 6%, 7% potential move on Tesla. I think the options market is speaking about a 6%, 7% potential move. But again, $2.4 million bet, and this is going on top of all the 280, 285, 293, $300 bets we saw going into earnings. Like I said in the weekend video, I'm still looking for a potential 50-day confirmation setup. So all these bets and everything we're talking about is into earnings. Again, I have no idea what Tesla's going to go into earnings. We might be having this conversation Wednesday night at $300 a share. We might be having this conversation Wednesday night at $240 a share. I have no idea, neither do you. But we're just talking about strictly from the institutional money flow that we've seen for the last three, four weeks. And obviously for a notable, really notable bet here, 6,500 of the weekly 265 calls, $2.4 million. Does he know something? As the old saying goes, somebody always knows something. Maybe he does. Maybe he doesn't. If we're determined, we will see Wednesday night. So again, going into tomorrow, guys, again, the big numbers for all you guys to watch, 371 to the upside on the Qs, 364 to the downside of the Qs, and everything else, don't shoot yourself in the foot. So let's talk about today's pivots, right? As we talked about, there was literally only a couple of pivots to the upside today. My whole initial game plan was to the downside, right? Like we talked about on the weekend video, the problem is nothing really confirmed. So let's talk about it. So I was watching Meta 31237 if it builds below can flush. Meta did not flush. Meta rallied a lot. AMD, I was watching 104.75 if it builds below can flush. Guess what? It did not flush as well. It rallied as well. Crowd 184.88 if it builds below can flush. The initial move on crowd was lower. It went about $2 here. You could see here on the pre-market here. So here is the initial nine o'clock move. It flushed down about $2 and then like everything else again, with a 1.2% rally. Everything did rally here. And again, here are my notes on Tesla. If it opens above 250, let's use that as a pivot. So it broke that 250, put in an opening range low. It never confirmed the opening range low. The same thing with Nvidia. If it opens above 52.80, let's use that as a pivot. The problem is, it opened and just kept on rallying. So we had nothing. Literally, we had nothing there. We had nothing there, potential for a move there. And the more important part is, it's a scenario that we just couldn't get filled. And because, well, they didn't give us an opportunity. Then we had a sneaky 60-minute channel. We were waiting for another Nvidia short. It didn't come. So you can see nothing confirmed here to the downside. But again, a plan is a plan until price action tells you different. And here is literally the only two pivots of the day. If you guys remember on Friday, on the weekend video, we had two pivots on Microsoft, one to the upside, one to the downside. And that's the whole point, guys. You want to see which way the price action is going to confirm. So here is one of the very few pivots of the day. Microsoft 333.83 needs to build. Microsoft had a nice pop here. Really nice pop intraday here, as you can see here. So it took out the 333.83 and went all the way up to 336 before selling off. A nice pop there on Microsoft and Nvidia. Actually, a nice little pop here in the video. I traded Nvidia 459.40 needs to build. And we said there's a shot it gets to 462. And the reason why 462 was a big number, because that was the five-day moving average, right? And you can see it. It took out the 59.40 and traded all the way up to 462 and changed. So that is the five-day moving average. So if Nvidia is going to rally tomorrow, it needs to reclaim the five-day moving average. But again, we have a two-sided trade. We're either looking at Nvidia to the upside above the five-day or below the 50-day moving average that it tested today, but never confirmed. So again, we're in the middle of the channels, guys. Sometimes again, like I said, sometimes you got to get a very clear window to potentially trade off tomorrow. And sometimes you're in the middle of the channel. We call purgatory or an inside day that we really need to let the market do the heavy lifting for us so we can finally get the clear path to the channel that we desire. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless, and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.