 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network What a fun night of games last night in the men's college basketball tournament We now have our first set of Lee eight games scheduled for Saturday We're gonna dig into FAU against Kansas State and You con against Gonzaga getting you ready for both those games by talking to Austin Cass Getting his read on both those and getting you ready for it should be another fun day in the NCAA tournament This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass check them out on Twitter at Austin Cass You can find his work over at number fire calm Austin a thrilling set of games last night a thrilling start to the tournament across the first three Or two and a half rounds now so excited to dig in. How you doing today? Yeah, doing really well doing really well. How are you? I'm doing great excited about tonight's games We broke down the Friday games with John Rothstein earlier on It's if you want to get a read on the Alabama games night the Houston game All those are up in the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the fan dual YouTube page So go subscribe there to get those as they go up. We also next week Baseball is back. Let me talk about that beginning on Monday talking futures with Tom Vecchio We'll have a an opening day preview on Wednesday And of course digging into more baseball as a year goes along as well Austin you've got a fun trip plans. So this is the last one gets talked to you for a while So I'm excited to talk about these games, but also bum because I'll be without you for a pretty long time after this I know I feel like you're just getting into soccer. So I hope this break doesn't ruin everything We've worked on I know the EPL conspired against us by having their off weekend be this weekend So it's all it's all a conspiracy, but we'll get you back on talk more. We'll talk some baseball. We'll talk some Talk to me PL once you're back for your vacation, but have a fun time We're digging into all this here in just one second as mentioned though Make sure you subscribe to check out the Friday preview with John Rothstein talked about the futures with him as well Talked about the lay of the land at the top of the tournament also later on today I'll be going through NASCAR a circuit of the Americas talking about the cup series Xfinity series and the truck series as well if you want to find that check out the timestamp in the episode description Over on number fire comm Let's dig in now though to the NCAA men's tournament Austin We'll talk about the Saturday games in just one second But first want to start things off here by breaking down the futures mark So I want to give you a chance to talk about that if there are things to catch your eye right now Looking at the markets over at Fandall sportsbook whether it be Championship markets anything else where you seem value right now if anywhere before we get tip on Friday night So I see a little bit of value in the national title market. I Think Alabama is the best team in the field. They've definitely Had that billing coming in and they've played like it through two games But I think they might be a little overvalued right now So in an effort to take advantage of that I like rolling the dice on Creighton in San Diego State to win it all Creighton was plus 950 and then San Diego State was plus 4,000 So it's like maybe Creighton's dropped 850, but yeah Obviously Bama is gonna be the U-Turtle for either of those two to get out of the South San Diego State. It's gonna play in the night seven and a half point dog But outside of Bama, there's really no one else on the left side of the bracket that the Aztecs or Blue Jays would be a sizable underdog against If they can find a way to get past Alabama They'll see their Kansas State or Fort Atlantic in the final four and maybe favorite in that game regardless of Which which of those two it is and then of course they've had to win that game and then beat a really good team in the title Game but once it came down to one game anything can happen Creighton's price is so much shorter because their next game isn't Bama. They play Princeton. They're 10 and a half point favorites San Diego State's plus 4,000 number will shorten drastically if they can get the win tonight So it would give you a chance to cash out at a profit prior to the elite if you wanted to and I think they have a Real shot to beat the tide despite being a seven a half point dog I think the Aztecs pace which is just two hundred and sixty-third could make things a little uncomfortable for Alabama Alabama's fifth in pace and Obviously, San Diego State's got their work cut out for them But I think they've got a shot tonight Maybe a little better shot than what that seven a half point spread indicates Yeah, 40 to 1 is the number on San Diego State right now entering this game of four tonight Creighton is plus 850 as you alluded to if you're betting one of those Austin Do you have a preference between Creighton and San Diego State? I think I'd take San Diego State. I Creighton is definitely more tempting because they're probably gonna be In the elite 8 and San Diego State could get just thump tonight, but sure that's plus 4,000 So that's a really big number that 40 to 1 so I'm really intrigued by that And it's also interesting too because their money line to beat Duke or to beat Alabama tonight is 260 So obviously they'd have to win in that the elite aid matchup and they'd have to continue going on there But plus 260 and compare that to 421. That's not too bad. Okay, so checking out Creighton at plus 850 checking out San Diego State Potentially to win it all based on the numbers based on the path and kind of taking a route to take advantage of the fact Alabama despite Austin thinking of the best team in the nation right now might be a little bit overvalued in what has been a volatile Very parody driven tournament thus far Let's shift focus now and talk about these Saturday games in the elite 8 will start things off for the first one That is FAU against Kansas State Kansas State right now in that game is a one and a half point favorite So very tight spread there total is 144 and a half Austin looking into this game Kansas State against FAU What stands out to you there? So I'm on Ford Atlantic to win Just earlier this morning this line was plus two and a half and the money line was plus 112 So things are trending their way Um Ford Atlantic's a Cinderella story by their seed and just name recognition, but this isn't completely out of nowhere They're a really good team. They are 34 and three right now They came into the big dance in the top 40 and both adjusted offense and defense per kin palm So they definitely checked a few boxes as a team that could make a run Something that makes them really dangerous is that they shoot the three really well and they shoot a lot of them They're 35th in the nation in three point attempt rate and they're 55th and made three point percentage So we kind of saw that play out against Tennessee The Owls defense was good enough to keep them in the game until they got hot from three Which happened in the second half and basically won the game for them Our model here at number fire has Ford Atlantic winning 54 or sorry 55.4 percent of the time Kin Palm is mostly in line with us. They have Ford Atlantic four spots ahead of Kent State So I think the owls do it again and and really get to the final four and make this a really fun story So you've got number fire pointing to it towards FAU Ken Palm as you mentioned has FAU slightly ahead of Kansas State as well. Bart Torvick has them effectively the same It's 23 for Kansas State 25 for FAU So a lot of convergence of stuff here, but as you mentioned this number has moved the money line for FAU is now plus 106 Are you backing off that that gets to even money? You know kind of where's the point of no return for you if this number continues to shift towards FAU? That's a great great question. I think it's probably getting really close to that point if it gets to even money I'd probably stay away When I saw the spread was that two and a half this morning. I thought wow should I pounce and then an hour later I'm thinking I should have pounds. Yeah, so Yeah, so that that's really interesting I I actually think it's probably gonna end up moving closer to even money on the money line. So Yeah, this is really interesting game. Okay, it's a shop around see what number you can get on FAU But plus 106 is where Austin is going on their money line against Kansas State right now Other game on Saturday night is Yukon against Gonzaga This one is shifting towards Yukon Yukon now a two and a half point favorite total in this game is 153 and a half so you saw the magic from Gonzaga last night in that win over UCLA This one should be fun. Austin. How do you see things playing out here? Yeah, so this is just like Fort Atlantic This line's moving toward Yukon. As you said it was just one and a half earlier this morning, so I'm on Yukon We talked prior to the tournament about how loaded this West region was and that was on full display last night That was the quality of a game that could have been a national title game. You're the best team slinging it out I think Yukon Gonzaga is gonna basically be the same thing Our metrics have Yukon fourth in the country and Gonzaga sixth So UCLA was third for us. So if Gonzaga gets to the final four then they absolutely earned that ticket I like Yukon on the money line, which was minus 132 This morning looks like it's minus 130 now Yukon's just the better team both sides are Ely on offense per kin palm The Zags are first and the Huskies are third, but Yukon is much better defensively the Yukon's ranked Yukon ranks 13th on D And the Zags are just 73rd While Gonzaga's had a really tough path so far in the tourney Yukon has to Arkansas and St. Mary's are both top 20 teams For Bartorovic and Yukon thrashed them by a combined 38 points They're obviously playing very very well right now in that form extends Much longer than the tournament over the last 17 games They've lost four times, but those four losses were by a total of nine points. None of them were by more than three points Bartorovic has Yukon winning 61% of the time Which comes out to minus 156 money line. So by his numbers There's really good value on this current money line and our model here at number fire is basically right in line with this minus 130 price but Eileen more a little more toward what Bartorovic has and then bullish on Yukon to win tomorrow Yeah, wisdom of the crowd situation here where if number fire is in line and another intelligent place is also On Yukon a bit more favorably that could hint that there is value in Yukon at minus 130 that money line right now What about the bigger picture for Yukon because they have locked themselves in Thielead 8 right now They are plus 420 to win at all. Obviously mentioned you like Crate and more you like San Diego Statemore But do you consider putting some on Yukon plus 420 to win the whole tournament? Given how well they're playing or do you just want to stick with the money line for this individual game and then go from there? I think I'd probably just stick to this game solely because Just for them to get to the title game, right? They're probably gonna have to beat two very good teams Gonzaga and Houston maybe or Texas who either one of them are fantastic team So just because their path is so much harder than what it would be for the teams on the left side Assuming they can get past Bama Yeah, it's gonna be a tough spot for sure But it's going to be a fun one as always and especially looking for that Yukon Gonzaga game tonight I have Gonzaga in the final four. So kind of need that Wasn't super optimistic at halftime last night. So maybe kind of Living on borrowed time already, but we'll see how things play out there That is again Austin Kass make sure you check him out on Twitter at Austin Kass You can find his work over at number fire.com talking EPL once is back talking college basketball and much more awesome We appreciate the time have fun on your vacation. We'll talk to you again here on the show once you are back Thanks, I'm I appreciate it. Alrighty big. Thank you once again to Austin not just for today But also for stopping by talking EPL with us talking college basketball with us. It has been a blast for sure We're gonna dig into NASCAR at circuit of the Americas here in just one second breaking down cup series Excinity series and the trucks here as well But speaking of Exfinity whether your bracket is busted still alive or you're just looking for another way to get involved in March Madness Fandal has you covered. That's why Fandal and Excinity mobile are Permanent to give you a chance to win a share of $10,000 for each of the elite eight final four and national championship game So $30,000 in total cash pricing All you have to do is answer prop pick them questions around in-game action inclusive of Excinity mobile themed questions and the best part is it's free to play Fans that answer the most questions correctly win a share of $10,000 grand prize for that rounds contest The first round of this contest locks on Saturday at 6 p.m. Eastern So head over to Fandal now to get in on the action to enter go to Fandal calm slash free slash contest slash Excinity mobile pick them a roll again Fandal calm slash free slash contest slash Excinity mobile pick them roll no purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply void or prohibited See full terms at Fandal calm Excinity mobile has not sponsored or offered this promotion in any way Let's dig in now to NASCAR at the circuit of the americas, which is where they are for this weekend It's the first road course race of this year in 2023 for the NASCAR cup series and a real banger of a field for this weekend You've got jimmy johnson seven-time cup series champion back You've got kimmy reichenan jenison button couple formula one champions connor gailey from indy car here as well That's a it's a really fun field now looking at the betting odds this week I do not see any value in Johnson reichenan button anyone like that, but there are a good number of top tens I like for this week So I want to dig into those and outline my favorites for NASCAR at circuit of the americas the big one to me My favorite bet of this weekend on the cup series side is michael mcdowell. He is plus 165 right now at fandal sports book I have mcdowell 49 percent to finish inside the top 10 Versus 38 implied so again plus 165 michael mcdowell top 10 mcdowell has a top 10 In four out of six road course races during the next gen era He had a top 10 average running position in one of the race. He did not finish inside the top 10 And I think that this makes a lot of sense mcdowell is a road racer He used to teach guys how to road race like William Byron learned how to road race from michael mcdowell and with the next gen era You've got the gap in equipment between mcdowell and the top guys being smaller than what it used to be in the past So you put him in relatively equal equipment and his his road course acumen can finally shine So we saw that last year I think we can see it once again this year So my favorite bet this weekend michael mcdowell top 10 plus 165 right now at fandal sports book right behind me It is kevin harvick uh pulse 175. I show value there to 40 for me versus 36 Implied harvick was inside the top 10 in three out of six road course races last year In two of the others he was 11th and 12th the 11th place run came here at coda and I think that makes a lot of sense You know harvick is a wildly veteran keep his tires underneath him Not going to burn those things up early on in the run So I think anecdotally it makes sense the harvick would do well We saw it last year my numbers like him too now the one counterpoint with harvick is that He didn't qualify all that well last year on road courses. So There's a pretty decent chance that is this number lengthens post qualify and saturday So I think that if you want to hold off maybe about harvick later on I can see the logic behind that So I think harvick's under value But if you want to bet him later off that is fair plus 175 right now though is a value for me Next one up for me is ty gibbs. He's down at plus 4 30 over at vandal sportsbook to finish inside the top 10 And I know I know I know the toyotas were awful last year on road course I know that but my model knows that too The the model i'm using in trying to formulate the equipment prior for gibbs Does not look at road courses prior to 2021 because that was a different car. So why would it care? We can get a large sample by looking at just 2022 data The 2022 data says the toyota sucked on road courses. It knows that but I think he's better than this number implies Gives a very good road course race in the Xfinity series one his first career race there at Daytona He also had two other wins. One of them came competing against a j alman dinger One came against uh, kyle larson of road america So he was racing against cup series talent and he was beating them pretty often So he is a talent on this track type It's also possible toyotas gotten better in the off season at road courses I'm not banking on it, but it's definitely possible I have gibbs at 24 to finish inside the top 10 So i'm not super super high in him, but his implied odds are 19 percent. So He could bite me. I've been on gibbs plenty this year But I was on him last week and he came through there So I think that's how gibbs plus 4 30 for a top 10 is a good value for what i'm seeing The final one I want to highlight here for the cup series ryan priest 7 to 1 in the top 10 He was not elite on road courses with his old team jtg dory racing But he also was not like hideous by any means He did get a top 10 in 2021 And now he's in better equipment uh steward haas racing talked about harvick earlier on but they've also got chase briscoe Who ran well on road courses last year col custer in this car was pretty good as well So i'm not like overly confident in priest in terms of talent, but when I take What he did a jtg dory and put it in a steward haas racing car I get priest's top 10 odds at 18.3 percent his implied odds are 12.5 percent It's a pretty decent gap. So I think priest makes a lot of sense. That's a gap i'm going to bet on So I will say priest 7 to 1 to finish inside the top 10 So for the cup series just top 10s for me for right now But I like michael mcdowell plus 165 kevin harvick plus 175 tie gibbs at plus 430 And then ryan priest at 7 to 1 Let's just focus now and talk about the xinni series out at kota just outrides right now at vandal sportsbook for xinni We can't find some value there Based on my numbers and it's actually the guy that priest replaced at steward haas racing I like cool custer. He's 8 to 1 to win this race Custer's odds for me 13.4 percent his implied odds 8 to 1 are 11.1 percent Again, as I talked about priest, I think that you know Custer was pretty good a road course last year. The problem was He didn't always translate that into good finishes, but he had speed basically saw Now it is tough to top a j alvin dinger It's tough to top willy byron tie gibbs all in this field for the xinni series But that's a count of four in the odds I think custer is the best outright bets and I think that I want to get in on that at 8 to 1 I also do not mind from a longer shot perspective Brandon jones jones is down to 80 to 1 to win this race I've got jones at 2.9 to win so a pretty big gap between me and the fields Or me and the sportsbooks here on brandon jones jones First road course race with junior motorsports previous with jogan's racians That is probably an equipment downgrade on a road course, but I also think a lot of Junior motorsports struggles on road courses is the drivers josh barry's a short track kind of guy Sam mayer super young tough to expect him to be great on the road course Noah gregson had upside on road courses, but did wreck quite a bit So I don't think the equipment is as bad as the results have been for junior motorsports And jones I think proved at joe gibbs that he can get the job done here. So I think that jones a better bet in a top five market you can find him The problem is that everyone else found him too. He went from plus 750 top five He's now plus 420 or 450. I believe so that number shortened a lot. I would prefer to find him there, but You know doesn't seem like we can so I think that jones a better bet for a top five, but based on where the odds are right now 80 to 1 to win that's a value for me too. So brandon jones a guy I am interested in for this weekend Finally, if you're looking at other top fives, uh, william hill houses up right now, alex labay Is 16 to 1 labay filling in for josh william suspended this weekend, but labay driving for the same team Has shown upside of road courses. I have him at 11.4 to finish inside the top five So 16 to 1 a very good number there. So labay top 5 16 to 1 it will hill But if you're betting a just fandall brandon jones 80 to 1 or coal custer 8 to 1 to win that one In the truck series I like two outrides and if you've listened to previous discussions around the truck series, you know I have a hard time getting to kyle bush at his typical numbers because he's amazing Sportsbooks know that sportsbooks know you want to bet kyle bush. They want to give super short odds He's plus 150 to win at circuit of the americas But that's actually a value based on my numbers I've got bush at 45 to win on saturday the applied odds of plus 150 or 40 percent. So I don't ever get this chance to bet kyle bush in a lower series I get it here and i'm gonna take that he wanted sonoma last year for, uh, kyle bush motorsports, obviously Driver for them once again now a chevy whereas he wasn't a toyota But um, I don't think that matters a ton based on the speed. We've seen the kbm trucks have so far this year So kyle bush plus 150 I will take advantage of Actually getting value on bush for the first time ever since I've actually had This truck series model. So that is a nice little relief where I don't have to be just Clenching the entire race worried that kyle bush will ruin my bets The other outright I like is also a cup series driver. That's ross chastain down at 12 to 1 Now chastain's not in as good of equipment as kyle bush is Chastain driving for niece motorsports and they're not as good as a kbm truck, but it's also not hideous And whereas the market I think Based on where they have chastain They're kind of saying that that the niece equipment sucks because chastain is a very good road racer one at this exact course in the cup series last year chastain driving for niece motorsports last year Ran at sonoma. He had a fourth place at returning position. He finished fourth in that race behind kyle bush He was very good there in this same truck Carson host of ours teammates had three really good runs on road courses last year One of them was with a broken foot at sonoma. It still ran very well there So niece's equipment is good enough For chastain to let his talent shine through and I don't think that those sports books are saying that's the case I've got chastain at 17 percent to win versus 7.7 percent implied. So It's a very big gap likely means i'm wrong because chastain Open at 12 to 1 elsewhere. He is short in a 10 to 1 in those other spots some movement or some movement Uh in my favor, but not a ton likely means I am too high on chastain, but There's a big gap for me to be too high in him and still be above where the implied odds are So I think the biggest indicator for me that sports books are too lower on chastain is that his odds at fadwell right now Are the exact same as carcent host of ours in the exact same equipment Why is that ross chastain is a better road racer right now than carcent host of ours? So I think that's a good indicator that they are understilling chastain right now. So ross chastain 12 to 1 to win in the truck series a good bet as well I also do like a lot of top five bets here. Uh chastain is plus 140 at william hill for top five I've got value on that other top fives. I like our parker clickerman plus 225 time a jesky plus 225 uh steward freeson and grant enfinger both four to one I think that what we're seeing here is that the top five markets are tied to the outright markets and the outright markets are pushed longer because of cow bush elix bowman and ross chastain being this field so They're not all gonna occupy all top five spots So to me, I think that that gives us a lot of value here to take advantage of bets again clagerman plus 225 majesky plus 225 steward freeson grant enfinger four to one and chastain plus 140 for a top five in the truck series so Recap for across all three series cup series top tens. I like mcdowell plus 165 harvick plus 175 gibbs plus 430 and priest Seven to one in xinnii. I like cold custard to win a to one brain and jones to an 80 to one and then alexa lebay top five at plus 1600 and then in trucks cow bush to win plus 150 chastain to win uh 12 to one and then the other uh top five markets mentioned earlier on That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread next week Gonna be loaded baseball at tom vecchio on monday. We'll talk to dr. Ed fang getting his read on the men's final four on tuesday Got some women's talk coming up later on the week and of course major league baseball opening day Just around the corner. So it's going to be a fantastic stretch big. Thank you once again Two austin cast are swinging by breaking down his thoughts on the elite eight games on saturday find austin on twitter at austin cast and again if you want to find uh our preview of the friday games check those out in the covering the spread podcast feed and On the fendal youtube page with john rostin if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fendal podcast network at fendal podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets across the sweet 16 tonight the elite eight this weekend and all other sporting events should be a fun Weekend for sure. We'll talk to you once again on monday to break down some mlb futures This has been covering the spread right here on the fendal podcast network