 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, training futures, equities, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the Options-Doug chat channel and Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as the directional bias. And the second step of my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in Smart Gamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And just to be clear, when I talk about setups, I will be talking about an underlying asset and setups can be taken any number of ways with futures, shares of stock, or options. Questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the Options-Doug chat channel and Discord and the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. So please feel free to post. My agenda for today, what I want to talk about, first of all, go over news items, economic data for the rest of the week and events. And then I'll go over my positional analysis, my planning process for today. I'll review a few setups from this morning, both in futures and stocks. And then we'll take a look at the live market. And if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at when we get to the live market, please let me know. All right, let's get started. First of all, economic data, news. There are a variety, let's just go through day by day. So first of all, today there were a variety of Fed speakers. Let me just bring this over here, variety of Fed speakers. And that is pretty much throughout the week. And then on Tuesday, well, here's Tuesday, Fed speakers today, tomorrow. So, bullard tomorrow. And then the big number for the week is the CPI data that comes out on Wednesday at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time. So CPI data, more Fed speakers, PPI data on Thursday, and then finally consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. on Friday. So that's the data for the week. All right, let's take a look at some charts now. I'll go through my positional analysis. So first of all, this is the SAP 500 today in Bookmap, ES Futures, trading at a narrow range today, and this is what Spot Gamma was calling for. All right, before I dig into this chart further, I want to take a look at a larger time frame. This is the SPX in a 30-day one-hour chart in Thinkorswim. And note the SPX is trading just above the 4400 absolute Gamma Strike, very key level today. And it has been up and down around the 4400 level for quite a while. Let me point out some other levels on this chart. First, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. This is for the week, this is from the options market. The dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move. Again, from the options market, SPX is trading well within both of those ranges in a very narrow trading range today. The next levels are the Spot Gamma levels. These are the key daily levels. First of all, there's the put wall at 4200 out of range. That is Spot Gamma's proprietary level. That is the level with a large net negative Gamma that can be expected to act as support. And the next level up is the 4400 level right here. That is the absolute Gamma Strike. That's the strike with the largest absolute Gamma. Add the absolute value, positive value, get the absolute Gamma value. And that is the strike again with the largest Gamma. And that's pretty clear. The next level up is the volatility trigger that is Spot Gamma's proprietary Gamma flip level. And below that level, market makers position on the Gamma curve is negative. In a negative Gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance or increase volatility. And then above that level, market makers position on the Gamma curve is positive. In a positive Gamma environment, market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue volatility. And then finally, here's the call wall at 4500. That's the strike with the largest net positive Gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. So those are the primary daily levels. And of course, the 4400 absolute Gamma strike and the 4410 volatility trigger are the only levels that are in play for today. So let's take a closer look at that, the levels that are in play for today in a another thinkorswim chart. And this is a one day, one minute chart showing again the levels that are in play for today. There's the lower upper daily expected move. SPX is just in that, and just almost in the middle of that range. And then here is the 4400 absolute Gamma strike. Price is oscillating up and down around that level. And then there's the 4410 volatility trigger. And again, below that level, market makers position on the Gamma curve is negative. And SPOT Gamma is really looking at the 4400 level as somewhat of a pivot level, bearish below, bullish above. And here is bookmap. I've got the same levels on my chart here. This is my cloud notes. So there is the 4410 level, the volatility trigger that did act somewhat as resistance this morning. And then the 4400 level support this morning. And then price has oscillated around that level. And there are a couple of SPI levels here. Here's SPI 439 that did act as resistance. And also SPI 438. And then finally, there's the 4400 level, SPX 4400. So I've got SPX and SPI levels shown on this chart. Those differences and ratios between ES and SPI and ES minus SPX change a little bit every day. And I adjust those in my cloud notes to show it the correct levels. And right now the difference between ES and SPX is somewhere between 34 and 35 points. All right, so those are the levels that are in play for today. SPX, ES, SPI, all trading in a very narrow range today. There were a few shifts in levels. SPX, actually there are no shifts in levels for SPX, volatility trigger, put wall, call wall, and absolute gamma strike all remain where they were last Friday. For SPI the volatility trigger did shift up slightly from 439 to 440. And that is also the absolute gamma strike for SPI. And then the put wall also shifted higher from 428 to 437. So those are the shifts in levels for the S&P 500. And we'll take a look at setups in a few minutes. And there was a good short setup this morning in the S&P 500. Let's take a look at NASDAQ now. This is NQ Futures in Bookmap. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a QQQ chart just to see the levels that are in play for today. And note that price is oscillating around this 365 level, which is the absolute gamma strike for QQQ. And only this morning the 367 level acted as resistance and the 364 level acted as support. And note above the volatility trigger at 368. So QQQ is trading below its volatility trigger in a negative gamma environment. And then the call wall is still at 370 up above just at a range of this chart. So here's the call wall up at 370. All right, so those are the QQQ levels that are in play for today. And I mentioned the 367 level. And it looks like my QQQ levels may be off just a little bit, but acted as resistance. And then there's the 364 level that acted as support. Also the lower daily expected move for NQ. And this upper and lower daily expected move for NQ. Those have been pretty solid levels to look for a reaction in the past few weeks that I've been marking those levels on my chart. And again, we'll look at setups in a few minutes. All right, shifts and levels for the NASDAQ. There was one shift for NDX. The volatility trigger did shift higher. And for QQQ, the put wall shifted lower from 360 to 350. And the absolute gamma strike shifted lower from 370 to 365. So slightly bearish shifts lower for the NASDAQ and QQQ. And karma FX, hello. Glad you're here. All right, let's take a look now. And again, we'll look at setups in the SOB 500 and NASDAQ in a few minutes. Before I do that, let's finish up with the planning process here. And I like to look at some additional information. I'm going to kind of reverse the order that I look at. So first of all, this is gamma notional market makers position on the gamma curve for SPX, SPY, NDX and QQQ. And note that for SPX at the beginning of the day, gamma notional was slightly positive for SPY, pretty solidly negative. And also for QQQ, pretty solidly negative. So overall, market makers position on the gamma curve was a negative at the beginning of the day. And now let's take a look at the VANA model. This is the VANA model. We'll start with SPX. And this chart is going to show me how market makers are expected to react with changes in price and implied volatility. And that's based on their delta notional. Market makers want to remain delta neutral, so they have to hedge options trades in SPX, SPY, QQQ, ES with ES futures and NASDAQ futures. So this chart is showing that market makers delta notional on the vertical axis and how that changes with price on the horizontal axis. There are two curves on this chart. The first is the light gray curve showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price only. So this is showing as price increases, market makers will need to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure so they remain delta neutral. And that's typical of a positive gamma environment. Then this purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation. That shows how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price and implied volatility. And that change in delta with a change in implied volatility is the VANA effect. Hence the name of this, the VANA model. That's a second order Greek. So this is showing as price decreases, market makers will have significantly more delta notional to hedge as predicted by the price only curve. Let's take a look and see where SPX is trading now. Give me just a moment to grab a watch list. So right now SPX is trading at 4403. So just above that 4400 level. So that's somewhere between these two lines. So really almost at the bottom of this gamma curve. So there's really if price continues to increase up to a certain point there's really no additional VANA effect. No additional tailwind to price. And if price continues to increase, market makers will have to start selling futures. And then on the other hand if price decreases, market makers will need to sell futures. So just very minor tailwind if price increases up to a certain point and then market makers will need to start selling futures. And then on the other hand market makers will need to sell futures pretty aggressively as price drops. All right let's take a look at the VANA model for SPI. So today we saw that gamma notion for SPX was just slightly positive and much more negative for SPI. So right now SPI is trading at right at 438. So this is showing a little bit more of a tailwind if price increases up to a certain point. And then as price decreases, market makers will need to sell futures to hedge your delta exposure. So being on this side of the curve is typical of a negative gamma environment. And then finally here's QQQ also negative gamma QQQ trading at 365. So right about there. All right so based on this my thesis for the day for the S&P 500 was really somewhat neutral with very minor shifts in levels for SPI. No definitive directional bias and I was looking for a little bit higher volatility than last week based on the the shifts lower in gamma notional. So for gamma notional all became less positive or negative. So shifts down in gamma notional for SPX, SPI, NDX, and QQQ. So SPI and QQQ became more negative and SPX became less positive. So looking for a little bit higher volatility remember the as gamma notional becomes more negative that tends to increase volatility. And now for QQQ my thesis for the day was a little bearish based on the shift lower in the put wall and the absolute gamma strike for QQQ. All right so that was my planning process thesis and now let's take a look at some setups. And actually before I do that and sorry I meant to open these up earlier I want to pick up from where I left off last Friday and I was talking about building a narrative. So let's take first of all let's take a look at S&P 500 futures. This is last Friday I want to review this setup. So I was talking about building a narrative and this turns out this move this bearish move move lower was a lot larger than I guess I initially expected. But let's take a look at what we were talking about what I was talking about what we were looking at. So there's the upper day they expected move for ES and know that as solid resistance and also note on this chart larger traders were selling as price reached that potential resistance level at the upper daily expected move that's shown by this falling light blue line. Larger traders were selling ES contracts with iceberg orders they used to hide their size. And as price rolls over cumulative volume delta that's shown by the blue line there dark blue line starts to move lower. And you can see all the pink volume dots those are by minus sell aggressive sellers coming in and let's take a look at and see what options traders were doing. So again this is a review of Friday and here's that upper daily expected move right there and notice as price reaches that level options traders stopped taking positive delta positions hero levels off they make one last shot at that level and then start taking negative delta positions and price moves lower. Let's take a look at one other hero chart this is separating out puts and calls again this is a review from Friday and this I think is a little bit more clear this is showing as price oops wrong tool as price was moving up toward that level that upper daily expected move traders were buying calls not doing much with puts this blue line showing puts is pretty flat and then as price moves up toward that level traders stop buying calls and they start buying puts so this is all part of the narrative that I was talking about last Friday looking at all this information for a a bearish setup on Friday afternoon. All right let's take a look at some setups for today and again I just I that was happening I was talking about that toward the end of my session on Friday and I just wanted to follow up on that. All right let's take a look at setups for today again and I'm going to go back to hero looking at the live market start with today so this is the SAP 500 combined signal for SPX by XSP and ES futures and what this is showing is price for SPX with the white line and the hero signal hedging impact real-time options again a combined signal for SPX by XSP and ES futures and this is showing options trades and market maker hedging activity for all those instruments. Let's zoom in on this chart I'm going to zoom in on the morning so I'm just looking at a setup from this morning so I'm going to start at the cash open here at 930 and what I want to point out the first first time that I really had any clarity looking at order flow and book map and hedging flow and spot gamma hero was right here this divergence so options traders started taking negative delta positions and hero makes a lower high and then the ES SPX continued to chop around just above that SPX 4410 volatility trigger and then price started to move over after a last test of that upper level all right so let's go take a look at this is just around 1025 the short setup let's go back to book map ES I'm going to zoom in zoom in on the morning here so we know that traders started taking negative delta positions so that was one piece of the narrative again the next is that larger traders are selling with iceberg orders and that may not be clear with the heat map there larger traders selling with iceberg orders shown here here here there are 3000 contracts that's also shown with a light blue line these big steps show the large orders so the light blue line is falling indicating traders larger traders are fading this move higher with iceberg orders so that is the second clue to look for a setup and of course there's a key gamma level right there at 4410 and that may actually be a little bit low I'm showing the ES to SPX difference at 34 it may be closer back to 35 now so in that case the 4410 would be a little bit a little bit higher and the next clue is the book map heat map showing these large cell limit orders that's what the darker orange is showing in the the heat map sellers coming in with cell limit orders they want to sell so we know that large options traders were taking negative delta positions larger traders were selling with icebergs and other traders were in there in the order book with limit sell orders to sell at that level and then price finally breaks below that level note the aggressive sellers come in and then sell stop orders start to fuel the move lower shown by the following yellow line sell stop orders all right so that was the the setup and the S&P 500 that I wanted to talk about in the setup review from this morning all right so Anthony asked says he's new here welcome I'm very glad you're here thanks for your question sure I'll talk about how I calculated the upper and lower daily and weekly expected move so let's go do that now I use thinkorswim and you can use I this it should be shown on any platform with an options chain and I'm going to take a look at SPX so it's pretty simple and what I'm going to do is open up the options for tomorrow so SPX ES NQ all have options that expire every day so at the close today what I'm going to do is go to this options chain and look at this number right here so this is showing the implied volatility for the next day and the potential range right now plus or minus 25.55 points so I'm going to wait till the close and this is for 11 July tomorrow I'm going to wait till the close and then I'm going to get that closing price and whatever this number is at the close I'm going to subtract it and add it and I get the lower and daily expected move now the lower and lower and upper weekly expected move have already been calculated for this week so at the end of the week you can do the same thing just for the the next Friday expiration all right so I hope that answers your question that is you can just get that from any trading platform with with an options chain and I do the same thing for ES NQ all right let's take a look at NQ now and there was actually a nice bullish setup this morning I'm going to zoom in on that zoom around just a little bit all right so let's take a look at hero first so I'm going to go back to NASDAQ go to NASDAQ now I'm going to zoom in so this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ zoom in on the morning so note here the divergence in hero and NASDAQ so the white line is showing the NDX price and the purple line is showing the hero signal combined signal for QQQ and NDX so what that's showing as price was moving down toward that QQQ 364 level as well as the lower daily expected move for NQ which was just about their options traders up before as price was moving lower first of all they really weren't supporting that just slightly bearish and then as price approached that level they started taking positive delta positions and price price moved up just a few minutes later so let's go take a look at book map so that is one one piece in our narrative that price was approaching a potential support level especially that lower daily expected move and Michael asks and Michael asks is your hero chart provided by book map and no it's not it's provided by spot gamma so this is something that I use book map and spot gamma and spot gamma is entirely separate from book map you can go to spot gamma dot com to find out more so again this is the the hero chart hedging impact real-time options showing options trades and I like to look at look for divergences like shown here this is a great signal so I know that price was approaching a potential support level options trades see options traders see that and they start to take positive delta positions they're fading that move and let's go take a look at book map and there's another very strong clue shown here in book map note this rising light blue line trader options traders I mean sorry larger traders are fading this move with iceberg orders so larger traders are buying on the way down with iceberg orders as price approaches this key level right here and then price reverses higher and then as price starts to reverse higher aggressive traders start coming in you can see the shift in the volume dots there volume dots market sell orders moving down to that price and then aggressive buyers start to come in show by the green volume dots also shown by the rising cumulative volume delta line and then as price starts to move higher buy stop orders help to fuel the move higher it's shown by the rising yellow line and you're welcome Michael all right so I showed a bearish setup in the net and sab 500 bullish setup in nasdaq based on order flow and hedging flow and reactions at key levels for both again sab 500 and nasdaq let's take a look at a few stocks now and then we'll take a look at the live market so the first stock that I want to take a look at is tesla and this setup was good for a scalp but not in the uh not in the overall direction but let's see where that came from so I'm going to go to these alerts so yoga mat is asking about alerts do you use any kind of alert function to notify you when a setup is appropriate for that condition so I do use alerts these these are the alerts that I'm going to show or something new that just that just started last week but all spot gamut does is provide these alerts and then you have to look at I or you know the way I approach this I'm I'm going to look at order flow and hedging flow to determine if that is appropriate now I tend to watch just the S&P 500 and nasdaq closely and then use these alerts for additional information for stocks so what I want to highlight I'm going to go to early in the morning here and I'm looking at these volatility alerts this is for several months now a couple months at least spot gamma has had these call wall and put wall breach alerts and then they just recently added these volatility alerts so the first thing that I want to first one that I want to take a look at is this alert for tesla at 957 and green that I assume that is a bullish alert spot gamma has not talked about these yet I expect that they will assume it anyway let's take a look at nest tesla so what tesla is pointing out is this this alert for tesla is pointing out this divergence here or not really a divergence but a confirmation so hero starts to rise and price follows pretty quickly shown by that rising purple line price follows higher so let's go take a look at book map now and of course when this happens you have no idea what's going to happen 30 minutes or an hour from now but that looks like a somewhat of a bullish shift in order flow here you can see aggressive sellers on the way down options traders started taking positive delta positions and price moves higher and it turns out that was just a scalp up to maybe vwap or the 273 level before price started to make lower highs again but anyway that was the first setup good for a scalp so there you go yoga mat there's yoga mat there's an alert and I'm looking at that I'm looking at hero and order flowing book map to confirm that that alert right the next Nvidia so let's go back to the alerts now so we looked at the tesla alert and there's Nvidia we'll take a look at that and another similar setup just around the same time options traders start taking positive delta positions and price responds higher all right let's go take a look at at book map take a look at Nvidia and there was the long setup in Nvidia again good for a pretty pretty good scalp 419 to 424 and this time order flow was a bit easier to read I thought you can just see all the green volume dots coming in aggressive buyers down at that level so we know that options traders were started to take positive delta positions and then aggressive buyers were coming in here and let's just go back to hero and separate outputs and calls and this makes it more clear and actually shows that option traders started buying calls as price continued lower so they were initially selling calls and buying puts then around 952 they started buying calls ran around there and around 954 just before 954 they stopped buying puts started selling puts and price moved higher all right yoga yoga mat says uh and hero today there was an alert for tesla on both the put wall breach and vol so I'm showing the volatility alert but um let's go back and take a look at tesla in just a moment we'll see where that that put wall breach occurred and that put wall can be expected to act as support so that would just add um and I'll take a look at that you know if it if price reversed at the put wall that would just add more um more ammo to the bullish setup right anthony asks is the option trading stats such as hero considered a leading indicator for the direction of the futures trading and sometimes it can be uh I think hero can be a leading indicator much more for uh es and nq than for stocks generally but here I'm showing the call buyers acting as a leading indicator for nvidia and this is what I like to look for it gives you a a little bit of a time a little bit of time to uh to prepare look for a setup so that's what these volatility alerts seem to be notifying all right so let's go take a look at at book map again so putting all this together uh there was the bullish scalp and uh I've talked about these uh alerts the last few days and it so far it seems like uh alerts for tesla and nvidia have worked very well I think I've highlighted them just about every day so last week uh last friday tesla and then on thursday tesla and nvidia that's the first day that I talked about the alerts volatility spot gamma volatility alerts all right so that is nvidia then let's go take a look at the final alert that I want to talk about let's go back to put some calls I don't I don't trade beyond me so I'm going to skip up to apple so I'm just looking at these um these three alerts here tesla nvidia and apple and there is the alert for apple looks like around 9 59 so let's go take a look at book map apple and there's the the long setup and out uh and apple also somewhat of a scalp and also you know of course the range the atr for apple is much less than tesla nvidia zoom in on this so order flow clearly uh shifting bullish here aggressive buyers coming in as price approaches the 187 level and good for a couple of points in apple all right so those are the uh volatility alerts for stocks that I wanted to highlight and there was a question about the put wall breach for tesla so let's go take a look at uh hero for tesla again all right so the put wall breach happened later on that's at 267 so here's the put wall for tesla at 267 so price that initial move lower uh reversed higher price reversed higher uh above the put wall and then as price reversed and move lower tesla went down and tested the put wall so that's much later in the day around 1215 and note that options traders started taking positive delta positions again as tesla reversed at that put wall level and let's let's just take a look at the alerts so here's the put wall breach for tesla just right around noon so that's where that put wall breach happened right around noon so let's go see how we could approach that so we know after the put wall breach options traders continue to take negative delta positions let's just see if we get any more clarity from puts and calls to the total signal and we'll go so we're looking around 1215 go back to tesla 267 is the put wall so price makes it almost down to the 265 level the high liquidity at that level and then reverses higher as options traders start taking positive delta positions all right so if you waited waited for price to reach that level and then start to move higher and make a higher low there's your entry just right at the put wall level at 267 all right let's take a look at the live market now start the s&p 500 let's see what options traders are doing so when we zoom on this zoom in on this we see that options traders uh are have stopped i have started taking positive delta positions just around 205 let's go take a look at book mount so at that time when options traders started taking positive delta positions es reversed higher at the and let me grab another tool right here at the 4400 level and this light this blue line is vwap so vwap and the 4400 level acted as support options traders started taking positive delta positions and now price is moving back up toward the 4410 level so certainly uh you know if i'd seen this earlier i'd you know there might have been a little bit of a setup up to 4410 but that appears to be where the s&p 500 is headed now let's take a look at nasdaq so just around 12 10 12 15 nasdaq reversed higher order flow shifts bullish a lot of aggressive buyers coming in again as a test now below the lower daily expected move larger traders coming in with my isberg orders starting a little bit later my stop orders fueling the move higher price chopped around the 15 000 ndx 15 000 level up above and below and also the qqq 365 level before now moving higher about the same time as the s&p 500 started to move higher let's see where it could be headed all right danie ask what is cl level i assume you're asking about this right here this is my cloud notes so cloud levels that's you know i this is i can label this anything i want uh it's just showing my cloud notes so i use an add-on uh that's available in the book map marketplace called price lines not price levels price lines and i use that to mark these levels in my chart i calculate the the uh es to spy ratio the nq to qqq ratio and the difference between es and spx and nq and ndx every day so for nasdaq here i'm showing qqq levels there's the 367 that acted as resistance earlier today and then these red numbers are big round numbers in nq qqq that number did act as resistance earlier today along with the qqq 367 level and then also the spx uh ndx levels so danie i hope that answers your question i like to see all the levels that i use in in one column there all right so it looks like nasdaq is heading up toward the uh 15200 level as well as uh potentially the qqq 367 level all right i missed a couple of questions in and discord sorry about that uh dnt matter says interesting you don't have hero indicator on book map you look at the put call price chart better so first of all hero indicator is no longer available for book map the hero indicator started uh as a book map add-on and i can't remember what is it all maybe a couple years ago um spot gamma started making a web version of hero and then at a certain point i think it might have been the end of last year they just just discontinued the book map version of hero so it's no longer a um a book map add-on and they've enhanced the features and usefulness of hero pretty substantially it is this web-based version of hero is much much better than the than the book map version of hero ever was all right let me uh anthony ask a couple questions early on when you explain the vana curve so that is va inna curve both the scenario of price going up and down market makers would sell futures so that is the overall um trend but they're also responding to uh options trades that are coming in today so let's go back to es so generally i'm using that just as a um a gauge for potential range and volatility for the day in a slightly positive gamma environment remember market makers position on the vana model for sbx was fairly neutral kind of at the bottom of that at the bottom of the curve if price starts moving substantially lower and implied volatility increases i know that market makers will be selling futures and enhancing that um enhancing that volatility enhancing that move lower and then on the other hand if price continues to increase there will be some downward pressure on price but again that depends somewhat on what um what traders are doing now so let's go back and take a look at hero there's the sb 500 hero so i know overall the right now the overall trend since about two o'clock for hero is up but now it looks like it may be starting to move lower hero making a little few lower highs here two lower highs so the vana model just gives me a kind of a framework to um think about the day and then hero is showing the real-time action so i know that may be complicated to try and put all this together but vana is just something that i look at pre-market in my planning process to to get a framework about how market makers may react with changes in price and implied volatility and then hero is showing me what they're actually doing how they're reacting to options trades today and then book map of course is showing me the the true order flow all right anthony i hope that answers your question all right my time is up i want to thank everyone for watching thanks for your questions and comments and i will see you tomorrow thanks again bye