 Welcome traders to Tick Mills weekly market outlook for week commencing the 28th of June with me Patrick Mandelaire. In the US volatility levels are sinking fast again following a brief hiatus around the FOMC meeting. Given the DXY is heavily weighted to low yielding European currencies and the YEN, the default position is that the DXY will be range bound until further notice. In the week ahead, the further notice will be the pickup in the US data calendar, including consumer confidence ADP, ISM and culminating in Friday's June non-farm payrolls figure. The recent FOMC meeting suggests the Fed's trigger finger will be a little twitchy when it comes to tapering, but unless the NFP figure comes in close to the one million mark, financial markets will probably be set fair for a low volatility summer, and the US has a public holiday July 5th to celebrate Independence Day. With $800 billion worth currently being parked at the Federal Reserve repo facility, clearly any talk of liquidity removal is premature. That should leave the market looking for carry but probably funded out of Euro, Swiss or the YEN. Other global market events to look at this week are issues like one, the OECD discussing a new minimal global corporation tax, two, the US Navy exercises and Black Sea, and thirdly China celebrating 100 years of the Communist Party. And lastly, first look at June China PMI. It's none of these look and media threats to the current environment. So from a technical perspective, the dollar index is in the midpoint of its range from the 9345 to the 8920. What I'm looking for now is as we hold above the 9150, I'm looking for an extension to the upside and ultimately look for a break of the prior highs at 9343 to the equality objective at 9373 and then on towards the yearly pivot at 9414. Really, at this stage, only a loss of 9050 would suggest the upside is complete and a resumption of the downtrends. In the Eurozone, the Euro continues to retrace the FOMC and due seller but no one expects the Euro to lead this recovery. The ECB has made it clear it does not want to be dragged into premature tightening and we should hear that message in the week ahead from a whole host of ECB speakers, especially Christine Lagarte. The data focus will be on the first look at June inflation data but consensus expects headline and course remains subdued around 1.9% year over year and 0.9% year over year respectively, hardly a trigger for any ECB change of heart. We'll also see June PMIs across the whole region. These should echo the surprisingly resilient flash estimates that we've seen so far suggesting supply chain disruption might not be as bad as feared. Also look for French regional elections this weekend, last week's votes and little impact on markets where a low turnout or support for both Macro and Le Pen marginally decline. Recall France sees presidential elections in April 2022. So from a technical perspective, the Euro dollar has retraced up into just shy of that 120 zone, getting some system supply coming into the market above 1.940. So as 1.20 caps the upside advance, I'm looking for an extension to the downside, retest of the prior lows 1.1705 on route to the equality objective and descending trend line support coming in at 1.1625. At this stage, we would really need to see a close back above 1.2241 to suggest that downside objectives have been neutralized and refocus on the upside. The yen is being used as the preferred funding currency for the summer's carry trade with target currencies backed by tightening cycles. So far these have been exclusively in the emerging market space but the list is growing by the week. Short yen is a consensus view yet it seems it will take quite a lot to knock the market out of its carry-seeking stance. Local interest this week could be the full year results for the world's biggest pension fund, the Japanese GPIF. Like Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the GPIF has quite high weightings for equities and thus should have done very well in fiscal year to March. We'll also be interested in any changes in its portfolio weightings. We would have thought though that it would have increased its allocation to FX page foreign bond markets given the collapsing rates at the short end of the curve. So from a technical perspective as the dollar yen holds above this trend line support which comes in now currently about 110, I'm looking for prices to extend to the upside and take out the prior highs at 112.22 and then from there I think we may see some corrective action. At this stage really we would need to see a close below 109.50 to neutralize the upside objectives and suggest a bigger corrective move to retest support back to 107.50. It should be a calm week on the UK front and for sterling I guess the EU sorry EU-UK trade dispute has calmed and it seems the grace period on chill meets imports in Northern Ireland will be extended. The BOA did not bring too much surprise this week and although a little bit more hawkish than expected still the NPC refrained from pointing earlier rate hikes. On the data front the final first quarter UK GDP reading will be released on Wednesday shouldn't bring any surprise with June house pricing data and main mortgage approvals both released on Tuesday and I wouldn't think they'll affect sterling too much. So as sterling has also liked the euro corrected back up into its resistance at the 140 level I'm now looking for prices to extend through the 137.87 lows of last week down to test 136.60 support. However if we hold the lows from the back end of last week at 138.56 we may do a double correction and take a look at 140.80 before getting that extension down to the 136 target zone. At this stage we have to see a close of about 141 to neutralize the downside objectives and refocus on range hikes up to 142.50. The Aussie dollar has followed the rebound really in high beta currencies last week running off some domestic woes as the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant forced Sydney back into lockdown. RBA race expectations have inevitably shifted to the hawkish side after the June effort on sea meeting and the market is now pricing 45 basis points of tightening in two years time up from 25 basis points before the Fed's hawkish shift. Still rate expectations remain low when compared to Canada and New Zealand where markets are pricing almost a hundred basis points of tightening the next two years. This means that there is a sizable room for the Aussie to benefit from the RBA sounding hawkish at its July 6 meeting. Before then though there's no clear domestic catalyst for the Aussie and the data calendar is rather sparse. The only event of those in the week ahead is RBA Governors Low Speech on Tuesday which is one day before the start of the bank's blackout period and it's unlikely that that's going to be any policy headlines released there. So from the technical perspective at the moment whilst the Aussie continues to find resistance above the 76 handle I'm looking for prices to extend down to the equality objective versus the swing structure here to test 74-20 before seeing a potentially more sustained corrective move and again at this stage really we need to see it close above 77-20 to neutralise these downside targets and suggest a return to test range highs back up into the 79 handle. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 28th of June as always trade is planned to trade, trade the plan, most importantly manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.