 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. We have Prabir Purghaista, who is the founding editor of NewsClick. Today, we are going to discuss about the Sochi talks between Russia, Iran and Turkey over Syria, and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's suspension of resignation and the issues in Yemen and about the Saudi blockade. Prabir, starting with the Sochi talks. What do you think this talk between Russia, Iran and Turkey is going to accomplish? Well, I think it's an interesting realignment that is taking place, because originally, if you remember, Turkey was really the other side. It was very much a part of the Sadat, Assad must go lobby, which was backed by Saudi Arabia, was backed by the United States, and was a part of the problem in Syria. The fact that Turkey has now agreed to be a party to the Sochi talks is, I think, is an extremely interesting realignment of forces that are taking place in the region. That the split between the Saudis and Turkey seems to be fairly complete. We had seen it earlier in Qatar as well, that when Saudis tried to blockade Qatar, talk about boycott and so on, Turkey really broke the line. They went with Qatar, gave its support and so on. So I think we see a clear division now emerging between Turkey and Syria on the issue of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, on the issue of Syria. And I think that's an important, interesting development that is taking place. The second part of it is, the United States has ceased to be the major player in Syria. It still can play the role of a spoiler, but it is no longer controlling the discourse, so to say, or being able to control the events on the ground in Syria. The only major area, which is now in completely hands of Al Qaeda, ISIS kind of forces, really Al Qaeda in Syria, that's really the Idlib province. That borders Turkey. Without support from Turkey, it's unlikely they can survive for too long. Once the Syrian army tries to take back Idlib province. So that's what is the only major, shall we say, resistance to the Syrian governments taking back their territory. Apart from the other one is the Kurds. The SDF has taken over territory east of Euphrates, which also borders Iraq. So what will shape up there? Outside the Kurdish areas, we have to see, because this, the area they've taken over east of Euphrates, a lot of it is really non-Kurdish areas. So we have to see with Iraq, the Kurds and Syria, what is the arrangement that's finally worked out. So I think we can say the war in Syria seems to be running down. It seems to be now negotiations to decide what will happen. And the only major block that is still to be taken is Idlib with Turkey joining the Sochi talks. I don't see much of a future for Al-Qaeda to be able to hold out there indefinitely. Issues are there. There are pockets of resistance, quote-unquote ISIS, Al-Qaeda resistance near Jolan, near Jordan, but they're really smaller pockets. So they're not, long term they're not a problem. And the only other place where the United States is actively involved is Al-Tanaf enclave, but they're still there. But it is the Syrian Arab army on all its sides as well as Iraqis on the other side. So again, that's not a long-term, tenable position to occupy. So I think we are seeing the winding down of the Syrian war. It will take another one to two years before things really completely settle down in terms of Syrian government's control over all its areas. Kurdish question still needs to be addressed. Most of you, British, the territory, the SDF is occupied back by the Kurdish forces, back by the Americans. We have to see what happens over there. But it does see that we are going to see now a drive towards peace over the periods. It's also interesting that the Saudi-backed groups, which are negotiating, the negotiations have gone nowhere with UN mediating the negotiations, the UN rapporteur was supposed to mediate between the negotiations. The person who was leading the talks in that sense from the opposition has just been taken out. And this is really, again, Saudis playing their role. We do not know whether the Saudis also want to now go in towards a re-approachment with the Syrian Assad government and with Turkey or it is to continue the war in Syria. I doubt that Saudis have much of an ability to do that. So I think things in Sochi do see, do spell a change in the correlation of forces in the region. And it does show that fewer United States is weakening in the region and Russia has certainly increased its political stature in the region. So I think that's an interesting development. The United States, Israel and Saudis can today play the role of a spoiler in the larger picture. But I don't think have as much of a, what shall we say, influence or ability to intervene in any major or significant way unless they go to war over Lebanon. So that seems to be the only place where they could still play a role. And of course, as you have also talked about Yemen being the other area where we need to discuss what's happening. Talking about Saudi Arabia, we see Saudi Arabia is trying to reassert its influence in the region, but failing to do so. Now Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad Hariri has suspended its resignation after so-called what we can call as the world's cutest kidnapping or the world's finest kidnapping. And now he has suspended the resignation. So where are the things going? It's interesting. I think the Saudi pressure on Hariri to resign was in the belief that it will lead to a large realignment within Lebanon against Hezbollah. Unfortunately for Saudis, even after Hariri's resignation, the groups that were part of his larger coalition, that seems to have aligned more with Ahun and Hezbollah on the Lebanese sovereignty issue and felt that this was really slighting Lebanon and the Prime Minister of Lebanon being forced to resign from Saudi Arabia. So I think that has backfired badly on Saudi Arabia, that they have reduced the influence they had on Lebanon. That sort of influence in Lebanon, Saad Hariri as we all know is very closely aligned to Saudis. He has Saudi citizenship. His major source of wealth comes from Saudi Arabia, though his major construction company is in bankruptcy. But in spite of that, he has deep financial, political, social links in Saudi Arabia. That Saad Hariri was in some sense made to look as somebody who was listening to Saudi Arabia is a loss of respect, a loss of face and you know in politics, public politics, mass politics, loss of face is something which is very, very significant. So I think Saad Hariri being kidnapped or being forced to resign in foreign territory is something the Lebanese did not accept. And it is a recognition of that that Macron went to mediate and then finally Saad and his wife have been allowed to go to France first and then in Lebanon. So that the rupturing of relations really do not take place. Saad Hariri is told his children and his parts of his family are still in Saudi Arabia. It is in some sense a sort of via media that Saad Hariri and Saudi Arabia have reached by which he will not criticize Saudi Arabia. He is too closely involved with them to do so, but at the same time he is distancing himself from the policies that Saudi Arabia is pursuing by suspending his resignation, talking about Aoun, his respect for Aoun, not going into direct confrontation with Hezbollah right now. So he is also taking cognizance of the fact of the closing of the people behind the Lebanese identity in which that has achieved a certain degree of importance, not the confessional or shall we say the identity of Shia, Sunni and Christian, which is how Lebanese politics has been played in the last so many last decades, particularly with French starting their confessional divisive politics by which they thought they could always retain their influence over Lebanon. So I think this is a very welcome development if Lebanese politics can go beyond confessional politics and also center around Lebanese identity and if they do so then Hezbollah actually gets strengthened because they are the ones who fought Israelis in the ground, both to liberate south southern Lebanon from earlier Israel and then in the 2006 war when they are able to literally fight to a standstill a much superior Israeli army and with Syria as you know they have gained confidence, they have now even tanks with them, they have formations which are much larger than what any regular militia would be. So they are in some sense now a much more conventional military force and as you as we all know they have more than 100,000 rockets which can be launched and these rockets are not like the Gaza rockets, the relatively sophisticated rockets the ability to hit the major centers of Israel. So I think that this Lebanese assertion backed by you know shall we say Hezbollah's military power does change the equation in the region again and it is a change of equation which unless Israel is willing to invade Lebanon and pay very heavy cost. I think it's a permanent change and it does mean that you are going to see Israel in a tighter position than they were earlier where they could invade any country in the region with impunity. The fact that Syria survived the war that Iranian forces have aided them, Hezbollah has fought with them. So the Syrian Hezbollah alliance from the north and from the east on the borders of Israel makes it not that easy for them to wage a war against either Lebanon or Syria or both that easily and I think Israeli politics has to come to terms with it. Whether Netanyahu has the stomach for an invasion will he do this because he's into very serious trouble and corruption causes cases against him as we all know when a country's leader is weak an external war always helps. So well will that be the cause for Netanyahu to wage war against Lebanon? We have to see but Netanyahu has never taken with all this bluff and bluster. He has never really taken steps which could endanger him. So whether he will do so now and take a very shall you say hideous gamble to invade Lebanon we have to see. Other than that I think there also Israel and Saudis have lost and lost ground significantly in Lebanon. Another development is that Saudi Arabia has agreed quote unquote agreed to ease the blockade which has actually devastated the Yemen which has been bombed by Saudi Arabia led coalition of which United States and United Kingdom are part. Do you think that this so-called ease by Saudi Arabia in the blockade will help Yemen out of the crisis? Well the easing seems to be very partial and only those places which is occupied by forces which are aligned with Saudis not in areas where the Houthis are controlling. They have said today that I saw in the ticket today that Sana is also an airport which they allow supplies to come in. They have not allowed till now even UN supplies to come in. They are not allowing food to come in. They are not allowing medicines to come in. The country is devastated is probably today another statement. If you are nearly 100 to 200,000 people are suffering from communicable disease like cholera. What it seems to show is the sewage and the drinking water system is completely collapsed. Electricity is no longer there. If it is not there the Houthis don't get running water. So you have a whole series of things which are happening which for a quote unquote modern state is a complete disaster and that's what we are seeing in Yemen. I mean the pictures are heart-rending. It's another matter that the mainstream media is only now beginning to register it in some fashion but the world is criminal in its negligence of what's happening in Yemen. You talked about the Americans and British involvement. I don't know whether people know that without the guidance and the A-box system which fly and help to coordinate the bombing runs. Saudi Arabia's air force cannot bomb Yemen. So they are, though officially they are claiming they are not part of the Yemen war. They are complicit because without tactical support at the air force and the shall we say bombing level and the level of operations of the bombers if that tactical support doesn't come from the United States and the British. Saudi Arabia's air force cannot operate and it's really thousands and thousands of missiles and bombs they are launching every day. That is the devastation we are seeing. Forget about civilian casualties for bombs. The civilian, major civilian casualties, starvation and disease which is what we are seeing. So yes there is a 13 minute segment on 60 minutes which talked about the tragedy of Yemen but it carefully does not talk of complicity of United States and even in all the reports reports which come from Britain, the United Kingdom on the kind of atrocities that are being committed on Yemenis we do not find reference to what these countries are doing in order to support Saudi Arabia. Somebody has written or said that this war will stop the day Saudi Arabia stops getting support from United States and United Kingdom who are coordinating their airstrikes physically. So I think that's the part which is still the unsaid part of Yemen and what is being said is as if it's a natural disaster which is taking place on which actually there are no guilty parties but it is just a disaster and this is the kind of reporting we've had earlier in Libya, we've had earlier in Somalia. We seem to rob agency from the villains who are wreaking this havoc on these countries. Thank you Prabir. Thank you for talking to NewsClick. Please log into our website www.newsclick.in.