 Week 18 is here and it's probably gonna be pretty weird because as always in the final week of the regular season we have to deal with motivation, dealing with players, moving into bigger roles with their teammates sitting, trying to decide what incentives are on the line and a whole lot more. It's a lot to juggle. We're trying to break down what we can here for today to get you set for the week 18 main slate and try to win some money on the final regular season slate of the year. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor of numberfire.com. Brandon, week 18 for the first time has arrived. How are you doing today? I used to not like week 17 and now I just don't like week 18. I think that's kind of how I'm doing. As opposed to all the other slates you've had glowing reviews of this year. Well, that's my role is I'm just the curmudgeon here. Although there have been plenty of slates that you have not liked either. Oh yeah, the whole middle stretch of the year drove me nuts. From weeks three to about 16, 17 was good. Like 17 a lot. Yeah, before that though, it was interesting. Yeah, but I mean, I was actually telling you something that I had to do this week to prep and it got cut off because we had to start the show. So you don't know what this is, but I filtered my spreadsheet by like added a column for whether a team had motivation or not. And so I added that in to my spreadsheet and just filtered by that, filtered by like my projections and sorted and it really cuts the list down. Oh, good bit. We don't have a whole lot of teams we can feel great about. And you can still play some teams or some players from teams without motivation but that's kind of a big topic for this week. So if you really are looking for those playoff teams to focus on, there's not a whole lot to go around. Yeah, there is not. And it's about half overall, half of teams on this slate have some sort of motivation. I'd say 11 have good motivation right now based on the initial read of things. What we're gonna do for today is we will discuss which teams have motivation. We will discuss how much motivation has mattered on previous final regular season slates. Which teams have the win juice? We should say. The Tony Finau win juice. He actually signed on with the company. So we can actually put his name in the name. It's now Tony Finau win juice like you, if you're being proper. Despite the fact I was not on the PGA podcast this week to talk about, is he there this week? I didn't look at anything. Okay, so the Tony Finau win juice. He's a champion. Of course he is. In our hearts and in reality, which is great because that's not always the case. We're gonna talk about that win juice, which teams have it, which teams don't, what that means and much more to get you set for week A team. But first a quick reminder, we do still have a listener league for this week. Go win yourself some cash. Fanduel.com slash league slash listener league, $5 entry, three entries max. There is no rake. So go get yourself some cash in the probably final regular season listener league. I guess regular season, yes. Final potential listener league. Anyway, fanduel.com slash league slash listener league to get yourself entered there, $5 entry, three entries max and there is no rake. Also is attending the Super Bowl an item on your bucket list. If so, Fanduel sports book is giving you a chance to win a trip to Super Bowl 56 plus $50 in sports book credit. All you gotta do is invite your friends to join Fanduel sports book using your exclusive referral link before January 9. 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In Arizona, 1-800 Next Step or Text Next Step to 533-42 in Connecticut, 1-800 or 1-888-789-7777. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Colorado, 1-800-522-4700. In Iowa, 1-800 Bets Off in Indiana, 1-800-9 with it. In Tennessee, call the red line at 1-800-89-9789. In West Virginia, 1-800-gaylbert.net. Have you seen the Mulaney sketch with the Chicago cop, J.J. Bittenbinder, where he makes a joke like he could look at a kid and tell you the size of his casket. I could look at a state and tell you like they're like, that's also a very dark joke. I could look at a state and tell you the number for their gambling hotline. Well, I thought you'd go with like the money clip where you get like your, I think it's like a $10 bill and you like throw the money clip if you're getting, you know, mugged and then they run after the money clip. Now if you want to make it easy for people to get the help that they need. We don't want to, you know, throw them off. Well, like I could look at a state or I could look at a number. I think I could more so look at the number, the phone number and tell you what state it is. Like if you tell me one hit of five to two, 47, 100 Colorado, I know that. So this is my unique talent, which is not a talent, but maybe it is. People need help. You know, we can help and get that. Well, speaking of the PGA show, I had to read an ad and I don't read, I don't read the ads. I don't read. Well, that, I mean, I read, but I don't, I was, I just, I commend you. And I just, I wanted to let you know that. I can't read. I think we should discuss this at some point, but like it's very difficult. My brain like moves in circles. So reading is tough. I had to like fake it through band, like the entirety of high school. I was technically a band president, but like I couldn't read music. So, well, reading music and reading different things. Are they, are they? Anyway, let's talk about the slate over you here for week number 18. I have no idea how we got through all those topics in one minute. Anyway, let's talk about week 18. Branded to me, it is focusing primarily on the teens that have motivation because we'll talk about this in a bit that they tend to be the more profitable options in the final week of the regular season. So focusing on those, seeing which plays I can trust most in those and then getting into plays where, you know, I can expect them to try hard. I think that's kind of the flow chart for me is starting off with the motivated teams and going from there. What about you? What's the key thing for week 18? Yeah, I think it comes down to just knowing which teams you can trust, which teams are gonna play. And yes, we will see big games from team, from players on teams that have nothing to play for. Those are gonna be harder to predict than just staying with the teams with motivation. And I know that there is leverage inherent in, you know, taking chances on teams that, you know, the public are not big on, but you also don't want to find out that your players have been just poured at halftime because they got nothing to play for. And there was no indication that was gonna happen. So there's some risk, but I really don't think the risk is worth it. I think there's, I kind of joked about the list being whittled down of teams that were relevant, but there are enough teams still that you can build, you know, 20, 30 lineups and still not be really running out of options. So I know I kind of joked about that, but, you know, we're still in a good spot with the teams that have something to play for. Yeah, like there are enough where we can like still feel good about them. And I think that that is a positive for sure. And that will be the primary thing. Other thing that's sending out to me is when we get value plays, moving into better situations because teammates are sitting, I want to think long and hard about their situation and decide if there is enough there for me to trust them as they transition into that larger role. I think a good example of this is Samajia Perine, Joe mixing out this week, which means that Perine is probably gonna play a lot, but he's playing with a backup quarterback because Joe Burrow is also out. They've already said the left guard is out, Riley Reef is on IR, he will not play again this year. So at least two backup offensive linemen and a back quarterback. Can I trust a running back who will play 70% of the snaps and get the majority of the early down works? I think Chris Evans will mix in too. Can I trust a guy in that situation enough to use him heavily when he's not like super, super low salary at $6,500? I think that's kind of the thought process I want to go to. Sometimes the answer will be yes, I can still trust them despite going through that checklist, but I want to go through that checklist first before deciding how to handle it. That's the only the key thing for me this week is identifying which value is actually good value. Yeah, this honestly feels like, and I've been terrible with this despite saying it on the Monday recap show, the Thursday preview show saying, I'm doing the research beforehand. I don't want to change everything by Sunday because we get news that player X is out. And so the backup is a great play, but then like you said, we're looking at a team where the implied team total is 14 points and you can project the workload to be there, but P-Ryne was the perfect example because I'm pretty sure Mixon was deemed out before the burrow news hit that he was not going to play. So I was like, oh, I'm going to play so much, so much at P-Ryne, you know, of course we have the time to think that through. Sunday morning, we'll probably get some other scratches and I just don't want to overreact to those players in really, really bad situations, which is something we talk about always, but I think that's especially going to be the case this week. Yep, and just go into the process. The process outline is the one that I use. You should have your own process for that, but like, you know, just asking, what's the value of the situation and is that enough with the volume they're getting to justify using them for DFS? Let's go to some playoffs scenarios here entering week 18. You ran through the situations and looked at which teams are actually motivated for this week. So run through that and let us know which teams are in high leverage situations, medium leverage, no leverage, et cetera. Yeah, so this is a simplified version of the playoffs scenarios. It's not like, well, I'm not going to explain the playoffs scenarios. It's just which teams have something to play for. 12 of the 26 teams technically have some level of motivation, which means they're not eliminated or set in their seed. We have two teams who are in win and in situations. If they win, they make the playoffs. It's the Colts and 49ers. So they should get a lot of attention from us. 49ers, we'll talk about this later, but Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starter if he is healthy, that's up in the air. So we could get Trey Lans, which definitely changes the offense or Jimmy Garoppolo, which again, changes the offense. But the Colts and 49ers are teams that if they win, they're in the playoffs. And so that's going to be really hard to make it, to make too many lineups without Jonathan Taylor as a priority. Two games with each team live to some degree. That's the Rams and 49ers. So again, the 49ers here, the Rams also have something to play for. So that game should be competitive. We also have the Ravens and Steelers. Both teams need wins, but also help, but they play at 1 p.m. Eastern. So they're not going to be, if they're scoreboard watching, they're probably going to get floored because shouldn't be doing that if you need to win. So we have the Ravens and Steelers. I'll talk about the Steelers in a little bit more detail. This is not really the type of game I would target if it wasn't for the playoff implications. So again, the two games with both sides have something to play for, Rams 49ers, and then the Ravens and Steelers. So that's five of the 12 teams with something to play for technically. And then we have the Buccaneers, Bills, Cardinals, Titans, Patriots, Saints, and Bengals. Bengals are resting, at least Joe Burrow and obviously Joe Mixon would assume that other starters are just not going to play. So. Jamar Chase has already been talked about is like, they have not confirmed, but like that's up in the air at least. He ain't playing. Why would he? So that probably whittles it down if you take out the Bengals to 11 teams. We're not going to play the Patriots unless you're a big gaming Harris guy. Well, he might not play. So if he doesn't play. The Saints, maybe just take some hill at this point. I'm not really in on Camara. So we're kind of whittling things down, but again, that's still some other teams that are playing eliminated squads. The Buccaneers, Bills, Cardinals, Titans, I think those four in particular have some extra motivation. They have the motivation, but they have enough DFS appeal. So again, we're still dealing with a seven-ish teams, which honestly, if I was looking at a slate outside of week 18, I'd say, okay, maybe two, three game stacks, one other offense I really like. So it's probably not that different. It's just the game stacks themselves aren't quite there. So I don't know if you want to roll right into the optimal trends you've seen, and then we can kind of parlay this back into how that affects these teams that have something to play for. Yeah, so I think it's kind of nice that we had the weird mid-season stuff because it kind of prepared us for like how to handle stacks or slates where we're not game stacking. So maybe that was actually a good thing. I don't know, trying to reconcile what was a weird year. Anyway, let's talk about like you said, the past perfect lineups from a week 17, because that can kind of give us an idea of how much motivation matters in practice. We had to decide how to balance motivation versus the value that pops up. And past perfect lineups say, we should skew toward the highly motivated teams. I look back at week 17 perfects from 2017 through 2020 to see how often players were on teams fighting for the playoffs. It's 35 players because 2017 at a kicker, that's not relevant now, but I wanted the extra samples, so whatever, deal with it. 60% of players in perfect lineups had what I would call high motivation. That's either a must win game or a spot where they were battling for a buy, trying to win their division, home field advantage, those to me are high levered situations. And that includes all nine running backs in perfect lineups. So every running back from 2017 to 2020 in a perfect lineup was in a basically a must win game. I think that's pretty noteworthy for this year. That leaves 40% of players who were in low motivation spots. That's 14 players. Of those 14 players, 12 were on teams locked into their seats for the playoffs. So they were in the playoffs, but locked in their seats and no motivation to win, but they were in the perfect lineup anyway. That means that 12 out of 35 players or defenses were on teams that had been eliminated from the playoffs. 66% of players in perfect lineups were on potential playoff teams, 34% were on teams that knew it would be their final game. That means we should be higher on good teams, lower on bad teams, shocker, big takeaway there. Of those 12 eliminated players, four of them were tight ends. That is four out of five tight ends in perfect lineups. There was a flex, a tight end flex in week 17 back in 2018. Four tight ends were eliminated. The other one was actually on a team locked into their seats. So no tight ends had motivation to win in week 17, these previous lineups, noteworthy there. Six of the eliminated players were wide receivers. That was 46% of all wide receivers in perfect lineups. So still more than 50% were motivated, 46% were not. Two of them were quarterbacks. So half of the quarterbacks were on teams with a lack of motivation. So keep that in mind, about 50% for quarterback, 46% of wide receivers were there and 80% of tight ends were eliminated from the post season. The key thing for me, with the players who had been eliminated is that most of them were not Randos. Like it wasn't, you know, Samaj P run, I guess, I don't know, maybe he wouldn't count. He's $6,500, but like most of them were not Rex Burkhead had a game a couple of years ago where the Bengals were out of it. They gave Rex, I think it was Bengals, they gave Rex Burkhead a ton of users and he went nuts. That's the exception. That is not what happens typically. All six of the receivers who were eliminated and made a perfect lineup had salaries of at least $5,000. So not like $4,500, Lake Turner in the situation. Only two of them were below $6,000. So one of the guys below 6,000 was Chris Godwin. His rookie year. So like that was kind of predictive because like to Sean was out, you're like, okay, Chris Godwin's good. He stepped into the rules previously, $5,100, cool. That makes sense. So three of the receivers of the six who had been eliminated had salaries of $7,000 or higher. Two of the eliminated tight ends had salaries of more than $6,500. George Kittle, Tyler Higbee, like that makes sense. Both eliminated quarterbacks had salaries of $7,300 or higher. So yeah, we're gonna get some crazy values and spots. But pretty often that's because a team is sitting someone and they're sitting one guy, AKA Samajia or Joe Mixon, they're probably sitting other guys as well like Joe Burrow or offensive lineman. And that means the offensive efficiency will fall and that does matter a lot. So the key takeaways for me were that we should emphasize motivation, especially at running back and especially at defense. When we do go for eliminated players, we should be skeptical of values on spots where a bunch of guys are resting. We should instead skew for guys with actual roles on teams that are still giving it a shot for pride reasons, whatever it may be. That's a key takeaways for me. Brandon, how does this all blend together for you? Knowing that we don't have a ton of teams that have motivation this week, but also we should favor motivation. How does that all blend together for you when looking at this specific Week 18 main slate? Yeah, so I was trying to come up with good examples here. And I know that you said running backs in particular are coming from teams with things to play for, but you were trying to figure out a good comp for someone who might have a really good workload, but on a team that just doesn't matter. And Daria Gunbowale came to mind, or he might, right. But there are reports that Dalvin Cook is looking to end the season on a strong note. They're starting Kirk Cousins. So while we don't see that at running back in the specific perfect lineups, but that type of situation where it's like, hey, maybe don't rule out a Dalvin Cook and also don't assume that, and a Gunbowale is gonna just kind of have 30 carries and a bunch of production or something. So does that kind of fit what you're talking about if we extrapolated that to other positions more? Yeah, Dalvin Cook, I think is a good example of a guy. I guess Justin Jefferson. Yeah, Jefferson too. But Cook is eliminated, he apparently wants to win because his dad passed away this year. So that matters. David Montgomery, they've been eliminated since week one. So I know they had a good record at one point, but they were done. They've been playing hard. Rashad Penny could get a contract if he plays well. Like he's heading into free agency. I think that's motivation for him and the Seahawks have been eliminated for four or so weeks and that's when he's been good. So I think that he's in play. There are obviously exceptions. But like DeAndre Swift, the Lions play hard. Do they have motivation to like run him for a 70% snap rate? Probably not, I don't know. The Browns guys, not really wanting to go there. Antonio Gibson, he's banged up, nothing to play for. Don't really want to go there. Stuff like that. So it is a case by case basis for sure. There's not a blanket statement of I must omit all running backs without motivation, but I do want to at least think harder about them. That's the way I'm doing it. I think what I said actually plays into what you're saying is like, okay, we're getting news that Dalvin Cook wants to have a good end of the season. They're starting Kirk Cousins. They don't have a reason to. That team might be more likely to produce a relevant game from it. Would it surprise anyone if Justin Jefferson ends the season with like 175 yards in a touchdown? Probably not. Would it surprise us if Laquan Treadwell did that? Yeah. So I think that's exactly what you're trying to say. It's not coming from these uncertain spots. There might be certain situations where, and every now and then we get some news on like contract incentives of specific players who they're 57 yards receiving away from like $250,000 or whatever. Maybe keeping it out for those things, but for the most part, I think we're on the same page where it's we're going to be building around the teams where we know that they have reasons to play from start to finish. One team that actually specifically want to ask about, and I know we're not going to get too cute and go away from them, but like the Buccaneers have something to play for, but they don't have a whole lot to play for. Like they're kind of, what's that face? Go ahead. Well, like they're kind of most likely going to get the three seed that they're set between the two and the four, but I'm still going to play them. But like, is that a team that you would worry about? In theory. Sure. Last year they hadn't been in a situation where they could be either the five or the six seed and they played Tom Brady every snap. Like that's lower than potentially getting the two seed, which they could still do. So like if they played Brady every snap there, probably going to play him every snap this week because the two seed is very valuable despite not having a buy. So I think they're going to try really hard. I'm doing them as being a highly motivated team personally. Yeah, me too. And again, I don't think most shows or articles are going to walk away from this saying, anything specifically different than like, hey, you want to prioritize the teams with something to play for, but it just really think through the odds that someone is going to play their full allotment of snaps or more than that because someone else is out and then what are the offensive expectations here? Because based on over unders, they're low for a lot of teams, a lot of games aside from the Cardinals, Seahawks game. Yeah, it's very interesting the way things shake out, but I think that just having those conversations, it's a more thought heavy slate I think. And like I like those because I don't know, I put a lot of thought into stuff and like I try to like parse through that. So I think that that does help, but it's not easy. So put a lot of thought into it, deciding how motivated are teams, why are they motivated, talking about what workload we can expect and accounting for the uncertainty I think is another key thing. I'm not going to have a, I don't know, like an 80% Ronald Jones. We had a couple weeks or whatever it was, like they probably won't be one of those slates for sure. Let's talk about some injuries impacting week 18. We know the Bucks will be without Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin. They might also be about Ronald Jones. He missed practice Wednesday due to an ankle injury and is in a walking boot. Kishan Vaughn was a full participant, interesting. Mike Evans was limited. You'll talk about the Bucks in the trend section. Derek Henry practiced the first time on Wednesday. Coulda turned it this week. However, it sounds like the most likely scenario is that he is back to the playoffs, not week 17. They could get the first round by week 18 I should say. They can still get a first round by, they're motivated, but I think that they hold them out for next week. We'll talk about them in the trend section. Chase Edmonds missed practice Wednesday while James Connor was limited. Both those guys are labeled day to day. We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section. Lamar Jackson missed practice again on Wednesday. They said he has a shot to play, but this is not a good start. You'll talk to the Steelers and Trends, but where are you at on the Ravens? Likely, I think with Tyler Huntley versus where you're at on them with Lamar. I am, like I said, I'm really looking into this game because I feel like I have to because there are playoff implications. I will say that in my research, whenever you have two teams with playoff odds playing against each other in week 17, since 2012, week 17, historically, has been an over-friendly week. I think it's just with backup player, which kind of goes against what we're talking about, but tend to have lower totals. We have absences on offense, but we also have those on defense. And just because the game goes over a 40-point total doesn't mean it was great to stack. We see that a little bit less whenever we have two teams with something to play for, which could imply that teams are more willing to settle for field goals and just try not, quote-unquote, not to lose, then be a little bit more aggressive. I don't know how that'll affect the Ravens from what they've been doing, but at least want to throw that out there because that applies to this game specifically. But I think that the Ravens are just, I'm gonna have interest in Mark Andrews either way, and that's kind of it. I looked at Devonte Freeman because his snap rate's actually been pretty good. The workload's been fine. The results have not really been. And if we're really trying to find value to get up to Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Cup, Josh Allen, I at least want to do my due diligence and look pretty deeply at a team that has a reason to play their starters from start to finish. So we could see the usual workload for Devonte Freeman. I'm probably not going to get there, but I don't think he's the worst process play if we're looking for motivation. Yeah, I mean, he's at least on the map. I think we're on the same page. We're like, I really don't want to go there, but I'm looking at it. I think it's kind of the vibe I'm getting, correct? You don't want to get there, but you're... Like you have to give a thought, at least. Yeah, yeah, that's basically where I was like, I don't want to, I'm gonna look at this. I'm gonna give it that thought. I think that if I really, like let's say we get Ronald Jones and then we don't get a Kishon Vaughn or maybe Kishon Vaughn doesn't play. Well, he was false, he'll play, he's good. Right. So if we get Ronald Jones, I don't really know if there's a whole lot of value running back. And if it takes playing Devonte Freeman to get like a Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Cupstack, it's enough where I would consider it. Considering is, yeah, I think in play. The Bengals are resting in several starters this week. Joe Burrow not expected to play. Joe Mixon is out, chesting positive for COVID. With Burrow out, I would lower expectations for some Ajay Piran stepping in for Mixon. Other side, the Browns are starting Case Keenum. Baker Mayfield gonna get shoulder surgery. So I'm skeptical of every person in this game. I would not be shocked if I don't use a single person in this game. What about you? Yeah, this is a cross-off for me. I don't see the reason to play anyone here. I think we're probably gonna be lower on Piran than most. I can see people using Piran, but he's $6,500, back of quarterback, bad offensive line. I think like looking for a comp. Yeah, I don't wanna do that one. Go ahead, do it. Okay, this is a different one. How different is he than Cordero Patterson? Well, Cordero Patterson's been recently. Like, is he different? Like, it's gonna be a bad team. He's not gonna get like 100% snap rate. Like Cordero's in 63 yards per game in the past six games. I'm not gonna fight you on that comp. That's potentially one. That's potentially with Patterson a little bit higher even than I would. I might be myself. It's a bit too much to go over on a guy that we're not gonna really play. But I was trying to see their implied team total versus, I know I've said at Goomba Walle's name, plenty, like a Rex Burkhead. Is he really that much better than those two and his salary is 900 more? I think Goomba Walle is the one to stop myself from doing. But yeah. Yeah, I don't know. I think he's above that, but like, still it's gross. He's not substantially. Correct. Jimmy Garoppolo got in a limited practice session on Wednesday and has a shot to start despite a thumb injury. He said he was sore. He dropped the F word. Oh, Jimmy's getting crazy with us. He was like bleep, it's sore. Is that a sign found reference? What? Oh, Jimmy's getting angry. No, Jimmy's getting sore, I think is the, I didn't do that intentionally, yes, I'm on board with that. Yeah, Jimmy's getting sore. We'll see if Jimmy's getting the start later on. Damien Harris was limited in practice Wednesday due to a hamstring injury. Typically, if you get in a limited session on Wednesday, it means you'll play. But Harris has sat this year after being limited on a Wednesday. So hypothetically, Brandon, if he were to sit, where would you be on Armandre Stevenson this week? It could have to be fairly high just because there's not a whole lot of running backs in the 6,000 range I would consider. He did play 56% of the snaps last week. This team has some reason to play. And if you take out Damien Harris's 9,000% red zone share, maybe Stevenson gets a few more touches near the goal line. So he'd be fine. I mean, if you tell me Stevenson without Harris or Samajie Peeride, it's not even a conversation. So if Harris said Stevenson has had four games with a 40% snap rate this year, I chose 40% because he had 40% of the game Harris was out where I had several props on him. And I'm not mad about it. Anyway, in that game where he played, or he's played 40% of the snaps at least, he has 18.3 carries, 1.5 targets per game, 85 yards per game, which is pretty good actually, and a 37% red zone usage rate. Those are pretty good numbers on the team where they're probably a positive script. They will probably be in the red zone a decent amount. I think that he would be a really solid play. I think that like if we get Stevenson without Harris, it's like you're weighing him versus Deontay Foreman. Deontay Foreman is in my loves for this week. So Stevenson would be like a top five back probably. He'd be like along there with like Michelle, et cetera. So like a top five, top six back if we get him without Harris, as we would say. Yeah, I actually have a, I just included it because everyone's gonna love this bit of information. I included a filter in my spreadsheet. Just to look for games where a player played at least 50% of the snaps. So it's one fewer game than you have. But yeah, I mean almost a hundred yards a game. Yeah, cause it lops off the cold scheme where he had like 36. If you include the 36, he's still at 85. Yeah, which like you said, doesn't sound like a whole lot, but that's, you don't get a whole lot of like. This late it's pretty good, yeah. So I'll take that for sure. Jared Goff is limited in practice Wednesday due to a knee issue. He has a bone bruise and is not a lot to play. They're facing the Packers. I think the Lions are a team where we can look at them and say, okay, they've been playing hard all season despite being eliminated. So like that's probably good. How much does your interest level? I guess we can probably specifically say Amon Rossin Brown. How much does your interest level in him shift with Goff versus with Tim Boyle? It's the sheer fact that his salary is 7,500 that I don't think I can get to. I don't care who the quarterback is. I think St. Brown has been one of the better calls of like just tracking him throughout the season that I've had in a while. I agree. But it's gonna be so hard to play Amon Rossin Brown over AJ Brown, even with the script potentially being, you're right. I always try to ask myself, am I gonna regret doing this at like 115? And then I look at my lineups and I'm like, I couldn't just play AJ Brown instead of Amon Rossin Brown. And I love St. Brown, but that one feels a little wrong to do. If Goff plays, you get the better quarterback. Sorry. Sometimes those takes still trickle out every now and then. You should police me a little bit more heavily. Anyway, AJ Brown is 74. Like the reason you play Amon Rossin Brown is to get 11 targets. AJ Brown might get 16 from, in theory, a better quarterback. I think that's win game. I think the argument you make is that AJ Brown could also see five again if they're just trying to keep the ball in the ground and stuff, but. Yeah, that's fair. Yeah. You know, give me AJ over Amon Ross this week. Yes. AJ Brown's week 18. Emmanuel Sanders missed practice Wednesday due to his knee injury. He set out week 17 as a result of that knee injury. Believe he re-aggravated it at some point, which is why he played one game and then sat again. We'll talk about the bills and the bookmaker section. Speaking of which, let's move on to that right now and talk about the highest total on the slate by almost four points. That is in Arizona for the Cardinals in the Seahawks. That's at 48 right now. Cardinals are favored by six and a half. Again, Chase Edmonds, now practice Wednesday. James Connor was limited. We know we want the Cardinals here, at least I do. Have you seen enough from the Seahawks down the stretch to run it back with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Rashad Penney, et cetera here? Yeah, I think Penney I'd have the most interest in just because he's been very productive. I would still get to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Brainbacks. I'm not gonna play Russell Wilson this week, but I'm gonna have a lot of Kyler, Christian Kirk, Zach Ertz, and I wanna be able to play the angle that that game is at least a little bit competitive. Not that I think the Cardinals would take the proverbial foot off the gas pedal if they're ahead because it's an important game for them. But if I'm really projecting that they put up a lot of offense, there's gotta be in theory enough to bring it back unless it's just a huge route which I think Seattle has enough pride to try to play tough and keep it close. They've been out of it for a while and it's still been playing hard. So I think that that's a positive for them for sure. I think that I'm not as worried about like the foot off the gas situation this week. And as a result, I'm okay with like having my quarterback with no bringbacks like Josh Allen, I'm not gonna run it back with the Jets. Like, I'm not gonna do that. But like here I'm okay with it. So I think this is probably the one out of two games where I think the quarterback I use will be tied to players on the opposing team. I might not have a Seahawk in every Kyler lineup, but I'd be pretty close to it, I think. Like at least 75% of Kyler lineups that have one of Lockett, Metcalfe or Penny. You said Penny's your preferred. I think I agree with that. It's either him or Lockett. Lockett said the COVID, the COVID. He said that COVID hit him pretty bad, but he's now in an additional week removed from that. He still has a really good target share since he came back or since Russ came back. So I think that I'm okay getting back there at $6,900, especially with Metcalfe having just blown up last week. I think I'll go back to Lockett here over Metcalfe. But I think all three are pretty good options. Is the other game you're referring to where you'll have bringbacks some 49ers with Matthew Stafford? Yeah. Because like Mitchell works, the pass catchers to be determined, but like Mitchell definitely works there. So I think that's where I'm at right now. As far as the Cardinals go, so I've referenced this several times, Al-Zaiden felt these to say play all the dudes, just play all the dudes with the Cardinals. All the dudes here, right? What's that? The Gary Oldman game he used to call it, or might probably still does call it, but play them all. Gary Oldman plays like every role and everything. Oh, okay. He was serious black, right? Trying to... I don't know what that is. He's from Harry Potter. Anyway. Yeah, you need a better net. Your favorite. I don't know. Your favorite fantasy series. I don't hate on it. I just don't know it. It's your favorite. And it's the best, obviously, right? Anyway, I think that you just play all the dudes. Zach Erz, stand out at tight end. Christian Kirk, the standout at wide receiver, relative to salary, I think. I think so, yeah. I'd be very happy to use the running backs. If one of them is active, one of them is not. I think they'd be... Like if we get Connor with no Edmonds, I'll take all the Connor. We get Edmonds with no Connor, which I think is the least likely scenario. I will take all the Edmonds. I just think they're all great. So I think Kyler's arguably the top quarterback too. Do you see any paths to disappointment here or no? Not really, although it's always in the range of outcomes for a game to be disappointing. Sure. They're a good run defense. They're not the best. So like maybe Seattle just tries to keep it on the ground, waste some clock, but... And then Seattle also is kind of good against the downfield pass, limiting it, and just being efficient against it. But that's not gonna get me away from one of the best offenses on the slate. That's overthinking it. Yeah, I think that's the reason why you don't go just 100%, like, you know, which we wouldn't do, but like, you know, you would count for that. I've gone 100% Kyler in the past. What? In the few weeks whenever he has not done well, that's when I go against the Lions. Fun times. Okay, let's move on to the second game here that where I think that bringbacks are in play for sure. That is the Rams and 49ers. Both these teams are motivated to win. The Rams have not lucked up the NSC West yet, which means they wanna win because they wanna be able to have home field for the first two rounds, and also home field for the first round because they might not have that if they lose. Totally here is 44 and a half. Rams are favored by four. Garoppolo, limited Wednesday, said he's still pretty sore when he throws, which seems bad for a quarterback. So what is your read on this game from a stacking perspective? I mean, the straightforward one is, I wanna make sure I have exposure to Cooper Cup, which sounds very obvious, but he's within reach of some single season records. Then I think that he's got enough volume to get there. He needs 12 catches and I think 136 yards for the catch record and the receiving record. So it's gonna be hard to wanna build lineups without Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Cup. I'm not gonna sit here and say I'll have one in every lineup, but I might honestly end up. You can only have one, let's say. Who you going with? Honestly, I don't do it. I have more belief in other running backs than I do at receiver. I'm removing you from this show. Just get out of here. Just how dare you? Do you not remember the creative of this show? Yeah, we, yeah. In this house, we pay up at running back. It doesn't say we pay up for Cooper Cup when he's chasing records. Well, we've never had Cooper Cup. We haven't had a Cooper Cup before. I would, I'm gonna say it's Jonathan Taylor, but I think it's a lot closer than it should be. But would you agree that receiver is tougher to fill than running back this week? Remove Taylor? No, I think running back's tougher. Cause like, okay, listing guys. I think you're lying. No, listing guys, I have a lot of faith in. Let's just do this. Okay, I'm gonna go from the bottom up. Stevenson, if there's no Harris, but that might not happen. One of the Cardinals guys that there's none of the others. I have faith in Devon Singletary that involves no caveats, that's one. Deontay Foreman, assuming there's no Henry, which I think is the right assumption. So two, I'm still looking up and I Montgomery-ish, two and a half. Sony, three and a half. This is where you get into the good running backs though. Eli Mitchell, four and a half. No penny? Depends. He doesn't get enough passing game work, but you feel great about him. So JT, five and a half. Whereas at Receiver- Nodgy? No, I mean like sure, but like I'm not enthusiastic about him. Receiver, I've got Debo, got Justin Jefferson, got Mike Evans, who I like a lot. Digs-ish, AJ Brown. You're gonna put Justin Jefferson. I prefer, if you gave me a flex spot and I could use Jefferson or Nodgy, I'm going Jefferson. Jefferson or Dalvin? Dalvin. But you didn't mention Dalvin at running back. Whatever, whatever. This is what I'm talking about. Don't have to eject you again, I don't. And you can't feel great about Stefan Digs. I didn't say it felt great. I said Digs-ish, he's a half. Okay. Odell, I feel great about Odell. Love Christian Kirk. Adore Christian Kirk. Would marry Christian Kirk? If like, if such a thing were allowed, the idea of him, it falls off after that. So I think it's JT. Okay. Pretty sure he named it more running backs than receivers. And you did not mention Kishan Vaughn, who we could get without Ronald James. Oh yeah, I forgot Kishan Vaughn. He's not in my sheet, that's why. I was going off my sheet, but there's no relevant sample on him. We don't need to argue too much longer on this. I think it's a lot closer with Cup and Taylor than it should be, but it's simply because I have more question marks at receiver than I do at running back. Yeah. One-eyed Jack Productions on YouTube mentioned that like, same as we're missing like five defensive backs, they are. A lot of those are due to COVID, which means they could be activated before a Sunday's game. Also, it's more so about like philosophical stuff. And like, you know, it's less likely that Naheem Hines erupts versus Jonathan Taylor versus like, Odell could go off, Van could go off, Higbee couldn't, but like, you know, I can say his name. He's been unredacted, which is good. So like, you know, I think that's more so why. I prefer JT over Cup. I talked about the rest of the Rams here and the 49ers. If Lance plays, I feel like Mitchell's kind of the one guy you can feel okay about here in this spot. $8,000 is high. He did his practice Wednesday. Sounds like he should be good to go. I'd still feel good about him because his yardage upside has been stupid and they've loved him. I think it's just maintenance that he sat on Wednesday. The pass catchers, they're pretty tough if Lance goes. I will say that in the, they're early down first half, pass rate last week was 50%. That is equal to what it is with Garoppolo. And Lance was decently efficient, especially in the second half. So I don't think the pass catchers are off the table, but they're not like hyper, hyper desirable is what I would say. Correct. So I think my read on the rest of this game is about the same as yours. So I don't want to stick on it too much, but I will point out that you mentioned yet another running back. You also kind of played the, what if other guys go off? Point me to a game with Cooper Cup where you would be disappointed in what he's done and other players have gone off and he still had at least what 95 yards in all but one game double digits. He had $10,000. He's had less than 20 points. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven games. Jonathan Taylor. Yeah, I actually don't know. Oh gosh. One, two, three, four, five. So he's had it five times since the snapper increased. We're going to put that caveat in there. He was not the same player earlier on this year. So I loved it. I loved the dancing around. The goal post can move, baby, it's our podcast. I understand Jonathan Taylor straight up against Cooper Cup is the better play. But what I'm saying is relative to the rest of the position when you factor in opportunity cost, I think Cooper Cup is extremely close to Jonathan Taylor. Okay. So at their respective salaries, you need to touch down from both these guys for them to pay off. If you go to a fan dual sports book tomorrow when props are posted, JT is going to be minus 245. Cooper Cup will be minus like one, I'm listening to the opportunity cost situation. I mean, I am, but I'm ignoring it. I'm listening to theory. Like I would feel okay playing, like building around Sony, Michelle, Eli Mitchell. I don't, I don't like, I love Mike Evans, but I would rate Mike Evans like lower than like an Eli Mitchell or Sony, Michelle. And that's the kind of stuff I'm talking about. Sure. Yeah, okay. This is crazy. Where are you at on the 49ers pass catchers if it's Lance? Not particularly high. I wanted to be in on George Kittle at a nice salary of 6,900, but it's really hard to get there with, even on a slate where tight ends pretty weak, we have Mark Andrews we can get to if we want to. That's going to be hard. There's not a ton, like a ton of value. I'm going to have a lot of Rob Gronkowski. I liked him a lot last week and what I anticipated happening last week or in week 16 didn't happen, but it did happen on week 17. That should continue for this week. But I think it's like Gronk and Ertz who really stand out. And even with that, I don't think that's enough to get to Kittle. Probably not going to get to a lot of Debo, which is scary, but it just goes back to the salary being high. And I don't like to bank on Debo's workload, which is just embarrassing to say. At that salary, it decreases the odds he kills you for not using him, just because you need a lot more to kill you at that salary. So I think that helps. Question for you. Yes. When did Brandon Ayuk hit his max for receiving yardage this year? Probably like week four. No, it was last week with Treland starting. He hit his max. It was 94 yards. It was six targets. So like it's kind of fluky depending on big plays, but Lance throws nukes. He throws downfield. His eight odd is like double Jimmy Garoppolo's. So like, I'm not opposed to Brandon Ayuk at 6,000 if Lance plays. I also think you could translate that to saying, maybe I should be on Kittle because like he'll throw downfield. They showed more trust in him last week than they did in week five when Kittle was out. I think that like, that's why I'm saying I'm okay. I am looking into the past catchers and not writing them off. I'm not super high on them as standalone plays especially, but I think I'm warming to them and higher on them than I would have been previously with Lance at quarterback. I'll say this. I'm probably most likely to play Ayuk at 6,000 because again, receiver is not as deep to me as other positions, including running back. So 6,000 for Ayuk, someone who doesn't need 10 targets, which he's not gonna get from Trelands can still have a productive game, can score a touchdown. He has good red zone usage. And that kind of probably drops down a little bit with Lance potentially running in touchdowns, but I might be able to sit here and say that I'm most likely to play Ayuk compared to George Kittle at 69, which is still a pretty steep salary and especially D-Boat 88. Will you use Lance and Stafford and then how heavy on Sony, Michelle? Those are the final two questions. I will, I don't know if I'll use both, but they're both in that consideration set of like, I think they're about six quarterbacks. They're in that top six for me that I'm considering. And then Sony, Michelle, I love. I agree. Okay, let's move down to the third game here for bookmaker section. Second highest implied total in the slate is the bills. Number one is the Colts, but like it's just use Jonathan Taylor. Like they're not, there's not a lot to discuss. Let's talk about the bills. Pretty similar spot to last week, where we discussed using Josh Allen and stacking him with Devin Singletary or Dawson Knox rather than using a wide receiver. That worked out really well. Not the Knox part, he donated, which is great. Are you running back a similar strategy for this game? Yeah, I like Singletary. I like Josh Allen. I don't know if I'm gonna get too exposed to the receivers, including Stefan Diggs, whose workload is too comparable to other receivers within the same team. So I don't really view him as a true wide receiver one. We had a few weeks from him where he was treated like that, but not so much. And as someone who had a lot of interest in him last week, I know that he had a ton of end zone targets, didn't really convert on those, some his fault, some not, but I think it's gonna be Josh Allen. And I will just point out that I'm sure Josh Allen has like the best Fandal sports book odds to score a touchdown among all quarterbacks. So why don't you just play Josh Allen and then spend down at running back and receiver if you wanna use the Jonathan Taylor argument at quarterback? I mean, it's a one to one comparison, 10-2 versus 10,000, whereas Josh Allen is $8,800. And there are other things to consider with Josh Allen. I think Josh Allen's top three quarterback this week. So not gonna push back on that, but hey, if you're gonna be snarky, well snark boy, I think that Allen is a top three quarterback. Singletary is a core player running back once again. Devin Doubletuddy, we can call him now after his two touchdown game last week. I think that he is a core player running back. Allen, core player at quarterback. I don't think anyone else in the scene is a core player though. I will use Gabriel Davis at $5,200 just because his role has been very good. No, rotational. I would say he's more rotational than sprinkle play. Rotational is like 20 to 30%. Sprinkle is like 10 to 20, I would say, if we're trying to define some terms here, if people may be listening for the first time, I think that that's where I'm at, I would say that. So a little bit higher than that, but higher in him than Diggs just because of salary. So like Diggs does love a good workload in the three games where it's been, Davis's workload has been better. He digs as a 28% target share, 40% deep, 33% in the red zone, but there is some wind in the forecast for Sunday and that may lower my desire to splurge on Diggs for this week. They just feel too much like the Chiefs where once they're in the red zone, it could be literally anybody. It could be Isaiah McKenzie a lot. Isaiah McKenzie, it could be Cole Beasley, it could be Dawson Cox. Yeah, like it, and that makes it really difficult. And that's why early in the season, I talk about the value of knowing where the ball's going, including in the red zone. Not a whole lot of teams operate that way. So when we have that, it's really nice, but the bills, I don't really view that way anymore. Yeah, I agree with that. I'd agree with that too. Okay, let's move into the trend discussion, talk through some more teams with stuff on the line this week and how we should view them for week number 18. Starting off with, I think the key team this week in terms of identifying some reliable value, and that's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you're talking about them without Chris Godwin, without Antonio Brown, potential without a couple of running backs. What are you seeing once you parse through all of that? Yes, no Godwin, no Brown, no Leonard Fournette, potentially no Ronald Jones, Qichon Vaughn should be good to go. He was questionable with the rib injury, but got in that full practice. So they can finish between the two and four seed, Bruce Arians has said that they won't be resting anybody that they're playing to win. So that's what you want to see. There's also the angle of Tom Brady in the single season passing record. He's 488 yards from breaking that record. I know that's a huge output, but it's an angle, and I think the angle is already there. So it's just kind of supplementary. It's not like a terrible situation or that they don't have anything to play for it. I'm just kind of saying, well, if he throws for 500, it'll set a record. So there's more to it than that. The Panthers are 18th in adjusted pass defense and Brady against defenses that aren't top or bottom 10 has averaged 295 yards, two touchdowns per game, 21 Fandall points a game. His EPA per drop back numbers are 0.16 points per play better than expected. So he's really taken advantage of these mid-level matchups. He's just torch teams comparable to this. He had Mike Evans back last week in a limited fashion playing 75% of the snaps. I'd call that limited wasn't, you know, his route rate was better. His snaps were a little bit down, but they're gonna be again without Antonio Brown in addition to Chris Godwin. So Evans and Gronkowski, Rob Gronkowski, not any of his brothers, I should probably clarify. They're gonna lead the way. Last week, Brown had a 36% snap rate before, we'll call it exiting. I think that's appropriate. The target shares ended up being 20% for Rob Gronkowski, 16% for Cyril Grayson, 14% for Evans, 12% for Tyler Johnson. Brady threw deep nine times, so deep as in 20 plus yards downfield. Evans had four of those, which is awesome. Grayson had three, which is also awesome. And then Gronk and Johnson had two each. So if you wanna talk about concentrated workloads, pretty much have that here. Rob Gronkowski led in route rate at 84%. Evans was at 80%. Johnson at 69%, Grayson 51%, but you could probably extrapolate that a little bit more for Grayson without Brown for the whole game. So I think all of those are in play to varying degrees at their salaries. I think they're all justifiable plays at worst and maybe core plays at best with Evans and Gronkowski. The backfield could be open with potentially no Ronald Jones. He'd have to go from walking boot to active, the walking boot on Wednesday to active on Sunday, which is possible, but probably not the way that I'm going to assume that it goes. So we could have Kishon Vaughn last week with Jones leaving early. Vaughn had eight carries and three targets on 24 snaps. He left early himself. Then maybe on bell came in, just three carries, three targets on his 25 snaps. So that workload should indicate that Kishon Vaughn, which we've seen in recent weeks anyway, should have a pretty solid workload at the salary of 5,900. So there's a lot to like here, including Tom Brady, who is one of the six quarterbacks I'm considering, but probably not one or two or anything like that for me. Very much in play though, very stackable. Is it dumb to like this offense that has some reasons to play, but might not, we kind of already covered that, but where are you with the Buccaneers? Where did they rank for you? Very high. I think that the one difference with Brady, I'm probably not going to get there, not because of like motivation, but because like I'd expect the offensive efficiency to take a pretty big dip without Brown without Godwin. So it's more so like the efficiency angle than anything else, but like he's considered, like I'd say he's still top six a quarterback, but I'm not going to use six. So I think that's the key difference there. I love Grayson. So he's like interesting because he was like a sprinter in college, like a track star, didn't play at LSU. It's been like a slow come up for him, but the past two weeks, 81 yards in both games, he ran, I think 22 routes in the second half last week, whereas Mike Evans ran 25. So pretty good involvement. 433, sorry, I thought you had a break in there. You ran a 433. Yeah, he's fast. And like he had to touch them against the Saints this year where he just like ran past them. So that's fun for $5600. Cause it's not just like he's, you know, getting these deep balls like or flukey. He's at 3.2 yards per route run during the regular season. I think 2.7 during the pre season. So he was producing there too. I like him a lot. Like, I was building a lineup before and I was trying to get to him above Tyler Johnson. I had to like settle for Johnson, but I do view it as settling versus I actively want Grayson. As far as Kieshawn Vaughn, if you look at the first quarter snaps last week before he got hurt before Rojo got hurt, I think he had like a 31% snap rate whereas Levy on Bell played one snap in the first quarter. Bell got worked down the stretch because Vaughn was hurt. I'd expect Vaughn to be healthy. So to me, if we get Vaughn with no Ronald Jones, that's like a 50% ish type play for me. Cause like Bell could play more, you know, that's a possibility, but I would expect to be pretty high on Vaughn. So that's where I'm at is I love Grayson. Like Mike Evans a lot. He needs like 56 or so yards to get to 1,000 for like the 90th consecutive year season, same be productive and no one talks about it. So I like Evans a lot, like Grayson, love Vaughn. I think that's where I'm at with this team. A little bit lower Brady. That's the one, the one lower spot for me. Yeah. And to clarify, I'm also not going to play six quarterbacks. I think it's just down to six quarterbacks already. I played about two, maybe three. It's Kyler is going to be one of those for sure. Then it just depends on if I want the salary savings of a Stafford or Lance, or I want to get back up to Josh Allen and kind of restructure from there. But Heshawn Vaughn would be a core part of that decision because even with Kyler, I need some salary savings. So I have Vaughn and again, I know I'm kind of like stuck on this point a little bit, but I think there are just more running back plays than at receiver. And I know, but I'm being serious where I think that that's something I really have to figure out if I'm okay, being a little bit lighter on Jonathan Taylor in favor of someone like Cooper Cup or instead of just Cooper Cup, it's a Mike Evans plus Justin Jefferson or a Mike Evans plus AJ Brown. That's really appealing too. Well, allow me to talk you into AJ Brown then and talk about the Titans recent usages because they need a win to lock down the one seed. So motivation very high this week. And the problem is that outside of AJ Brown, the usages have been stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid for a very long time now. So I wanted to dig in and see which guys we could actually like here outside of AJ Brown. Good thing is we can't just use him. Julio Jones off the COVID list and should play this week. This will be the seventh game that Jones and Brown have played together this year. In those games, Brown's target share is 34% with 58% of the deep targets and 28% in the red zone. Julio is at 16% overall and 17% of the deep looks. Brown's salary is $74. I think that's too low. I am in on him here as in on him as I've been all season. Jones is $5,700 at the tougher sell for me. He is yet to have more than, or he's had 60 yards more, more than 60 yards once this year. And that was back in week two, not really there personally. At running back, I think we can go with the ante foreman. Just it's worth noting that the usages has been inconsistent. He's had four games with Jeremy McNichols being back. And in those four games, his adjusted opportunities, so carries plus two X targets have been 17, 28, nine, and 26. So a lot up and down. Yardage totals, yards and scrimmage have been 62, 135, 17, 132. So the floor is terrible because it's a three-minute committee, but he obviously has upside and that upside gets a boost in this spot, especially after he played 66% of the snaps last week versus the dolphins. I think that funkiness should probably keep him out of the cash game consideration, but he has the upside we need for tournaments and a lot of it. And he's in a high leverage spot. His salary is reasonable at $6,900. I think he's similar to Rashad Penny last week where we can ride with him despite the known limitations. So for cash games, I like Brown a lot here. For tournaments, I like both Brown and Foreman. And that's more than I thought I would like going into this week. So basically, I talked myself in Deontay Foreman. What about you? Are you as receptive to Foreman this week as I am? Well, I thought you would point out the most obvious reason to play Foreman. That's a revenge game. I know that they've played already. You're right. I know that they've played already. Wow. Not just like a revenge game, but also like it's in Texas. He went to college in Texas. So revenge game, homecoming narrative. Oh my gosh, maybe he is in play for cash. Well, this goes back to some things that have come up throughout the season is there's not receiving work you can bank on here. I know that you're aware of that, but that typically is like a gym stay away. Are you just excited about like 20 plus carries at this like at a sub 7,000 salary? I mean, so we talk about guys who don't get a lot of past catching work needing to go nuts in order to pay off like from a yardage perspective. He's shown that twice already. He's got 3,100 yard rushing games. I don't count that one because it was before my Nick Nichols was back. So I don't think it matters. He's still done it. I'm trying to help you. No, but I don't include that one. Like I am trying to un-cherry pick, but even games with Nick Nichols, he has 132 twice. Do you think he can get to 20 Fandle points? Yeah, I think so. He can score twice pretty easily, I think. In this spot, for sure, I think so. I'm lower on Foreman. Yeah, go ahead. I'm lower on Foreman. I love Andy Brown. He would not be someone I would consider for a cash game. I would like not to get there for cash games if I had to, whatever, you know. Like I don't think he's even close. Like he's not on the radar for me for a cash game. Okay, fair enough. Let's move to your third trend, and I'm sorry to say, Brandon, it just got thrown in the trash because Deontay Johnson has tested positive for COVID. You were gonna talk about the sealer's usages, so let's just make this a broader discussion now. We can throw out the data, whatever. What? Go ahead. I can still at least look at Najee, right? Okay, talk to me about Najee, then we'll talk about Ray Ray McLeod. And maybe Chase Claypool? Maybe. So yeah, with the Bookmaker games, with the other trends we've done, it left not a whole lot to go over, and I was kind of forcing to look at it something between the Ravens and Steelers. So I wanted to look at the Steelers because they're just not a team that I typically look at, and I wouldn't typically look at in a total of 41 and a half, the total was 41 and a half, probably gonna drop. Boy. Okay, so. Each team needs a win. That at least gives me reason to look here with or without Deontay. I might actually help Najee get like 15 targets, who knows, cause he's gonna play every snap. So it's a must win, or sorry, in that must win in week 17, Najee had 28 carries for 188 yards, both red zone carries three targets on a 65% route rate in games since Juju Smith's used her as injury and with Ben Roethlisberger playing. Najee's average 28.6 adjusted opportunities per game with an 85% snap rate, 59% route rate, 13% target share with an overall red zone share of 27%. Overall, he's up to 29.8 adjusted opportunities per game with a ton of targets, 15% target share. It's one of the best workloads in football. If he, I think it's workload wise, JT in his own tier, Najee, and then kind of bumped down to everyone else just because the receiving's there and without Deontay, that should be there even more. Now we gotta, I had some notes on Deontay, but now we gotta think about offensive expectations without Deontay Johnson being lower. So yes, this is a spot where Najee Harris should have as much work as he can handle, but I mentioned just the two red zone carries, Ben Roethlisberger, not very efficient on Monday night. That's probably not gonna get, I mean, I don't think it could get worse, really. Just innocent, like, so, but point being, like natural regression says he'll be a little bit better, but it's not gonna be better simply because Deontay's out. So you got a factor in the offensive expectations and the red zone work, but in these games that I mentioned with Ben without Juju Chase Claypools at a 17% target share, 6.3 targets per game, 1.3 downfield per game, one in the red zone, catch rate over expectation is a minus 4.9%. So could have some positive regression there and without Deontay, his volume should be a little bit higher. So maybe Chase Claypool is on the menu, Pat Frymuth at a 15% target share, it's 5.3 per game. Not a whole lot of end zone targets to go around here, but he does have 80% of those and a 25% red zone share. So like, I didn't think Najee was a bad play before the Deontay injury. I think for a lot of people, this would raise people on Najee. I think it lowers me because of the touchdown equity being lower. I still think workload-wise, motivation-wise, Najee makes sense for someone who could have 20 carries, like six, seven, eight targets because of Deontay being out. That's kind of it for me with this offense, if not for Deontay being out, but I think now without Deontay, I could at least take a look at Chase Claypool. What are your thoughts here? Claypool is $5,800. He, in the past five games with Rarity and McLeod being a starter, Claypool is at a 16% target share, 24% deep. McLeod in that time, 18% overall targets, 29% in the red zone, but only 16% deep. Not that there are a lot of deep targets to go around either. So McLeod's getting targets, but doing nothing with them. Claypool's not getting a lot of targets, also doing nothing with them. I think that I'd rather go Claypool at 58 than McLeod at 56, I think. What is he? He's very low. Ray Ray. 49, okay, all right. I think they're actually both kind of in play here just because like they are going to try, they're going to throw the ball a bunch. Their center is also out, which means it might be tougher for them to run. So like, I might have targets for 35 yards. Yeah, I used him in the single games late. It was terrible. He's got 18 targets for 60 yards the past two games. So let me ask you this. Deontay could still get cleared because I think Brian O'Neill of the Vikings are right tackle got put on the COVID list Monday was cleared by Wednesday. So like there's a chance he gets cleared still but like not overly optimistic that would happen. Also O'Neill might have been a false positive. I'm not sure. Anyway, there's a chance he could get cleared. I don't know. I'm assuming we would use Chase Claypool, correct? I would use Claypool. I do not think I would bog down my lineups with Ray Ray McLeod because he's already had volume and done nothing with it. So am I banking on 20 targets to get to 70 yards then? Like, and I know that there's more to it than that but he's already had eight and 10 targets done nothing with it. That's hard to kind of get excited about. I wouldn't write him. I wouldn't let people talk about James Washington this week and I can't do that. That's a step too far. I'd rather use McLeod than Washington. Yeah. It's bad. It's bad real bad. It's not good. It's not great, Bob. That is for sure. So I'll use Claypool. I will at least consider McLeod, but like, it's not a... What about Na'Jee? I think it lowers me on Na'Jee. I was pretty low to begin with because like for whatever reason his red zone role has dried up. He had a 40% red zone share in each of the first six games. He has not gotten there in individual gains since. Full season red zone share down to 33%. I know motivation is very different. I'd rather use Dalvin than Na'Jee personally. Friar Muth, 52. I'd rather get to Earth's. Doesn't really do enough, yeah. Yeah, I agree. Okay, so underwhelming team for sure. Weather for Sunday, speaking to that game. Chance of rain in Baltimore for Raven Steelers. The wind's not bad. That's fine, but just noting that there. Rain is possible in New Jersey for the Giants in Washington. 15 mile per hour winds in Cleveland for the Browns and Engels. Who cares about those two? Windsor at 13 miles per hour in Miami for the Dolphins and Patriots. Might put a damper on all those McJones deep balls. And then finally, winds are at 17 miles per hour in Buffalo for the Bills and Jets. I originally did have Gabriel Davis in my loves. I removed him because of that. I still like him and will still use him as rotational play. Couldn't quite label him as a love though as a result of the wind in Buffalo for that. So with that said, let's move into our positional plays for week number 18. Based on the information as of Thursday morning, things could change and will change before Sunday. So keep that in mind here. But Brandon, as of now, who do you like at quarterback? I think Kyler's my number one, but I also don't wanna gloss over Josh Allen to the point where I don't mention him as a love because I think he's probably two to three for me outright, even at that salary. It's just hard to pass up guaranteed production from Allen. So the passing beat not there last week, but still paid off because of the rushing workload. My simulations have a very nice 69% likely to get to 20 fandal points. Kyler's at 59%, they're the two standouts with that. So he just kind of has that slate altering upside in a meaningful game. I think I'll roll the dice more on some value plays at running back and some lower salary receivers if needed to make sure that I'm not neglecting Josh Allen. And my second love is going to be Trey Lance, obviously assuming that he starts, he's run plenty when starting, ran eight times for 31 yards last week while actually being pretty decent as a passer, 249 yards, two touchdowns. He's got guys who can gain yards after the catch, one Debo or one George Kittle, you know, 60 yard scamper can really help out even if the passing volume is limited. The Rams are 29th and adjusted fandal points per carry allowed to opposing quarterbacks, 25th and success rate allowed. Not a stat I really look at, but I think it matters here. And it would really help me get to Taylor and Cup potentially in the same lineup if I can go with Trey Lance. So it's also kind of a play on saying Kyler and Josh Allen are just okay. And if that's the case, there's probably not a whole lot of massive upside on this late. So then that makes me a little bit more okay with saving some salary and going with Trey Lance. And that happened last week, like both Allen and Murray were in great spots and they were fine, but they were just okay. So I think that having that as being a consideration range of outcomes, totally fine. With that said, my first love is Kyler Murray. It's a high motivation game for the Cardinals. They can still win the NFC West if they win this game in the Rams lose. Kyler actually ran a lot last week and looked pretty good. He ran nine times. That is his second highest total in a game this year. Seattle ranks 24th and schedule adjusted past defense. Kyler is 84, I like that a lot. My second love is Matthew Stafford. I do want to get to Josh Allen to 88, but realistically Stafford does save me a lot. High motivation spot trying to lock down that two seed trying to win the NFC West. It's kind of hard to turn down that salary in a must win game against a depleted secondary. Stafford has the building blocks for upside. I think he could flash that upside here. So I do like Stafford a lot and I'll stack him with cup, shut up, don't talk about it, move on to running back. I had Naji, I'll stick with Naji with a caveat that I'm a little bit lower, but I do think that there's merit to playing him because this team does need a win. His workload really is as good as anyone's. I know the red zone work is a little bit of a question mark and there's, but look, as I already mentioned, his workload's just, it's so good. And I feel like there's zero chance that he comes away from this game with fewer than like 28 adjusted opportunities, which would be awesome for the workload. I think that it's possible for him to get like eight or 10 targets, honestly, if Deontay is ruled out. That's just really hard to kind of ignore entirely. So I'm gonna say Naji with kind of that caveat that he's lower than he would have been otherwise. My second love, I feel way better about, it's Sony Michelle, it's 77. Since week 13, 91% snap rate, 21.6 carries, 3.2 targets for 28 adjusted opportunities per game, five red zone rushes per game, that's 96%. When they get there, he's their goal line back, 114 yards per game, an important game, reasonable salary. Michelle probably might be honestly outright the RB two for me behind Taylor, like straight up. Him or Dalvin, yeah, I think. Yeah. And then my third love's gonna be Kishan Vaughn, again, assuming that there's no Ronald Jones, but with Jones leaving early last week, Vaughn was the guy who came in first, eight carries, three targets and 24 snaps. He's been involved before the Ronald Jones injury, spent a good amount of draft capital on him. So you would think that Kishan Vaughn gets a pretty good workload here if Ronald Jones is out. Yeah, Levy on Bel got dusted for like Devonte Freeman, Latavius Murray, Tyson Williams. I like Kishan Vaughn a lot too, if Rojo can't go. I also do like Michelle. I think that he's a great play, as you mentioned. My first love is Jonathan Taylor, because he checks every box, it's a must win game. He's at 141 yards from scrimmage per game this year, which is an absurd number. He has a 58% red zone share, also absurd. He is well worth 10-2. I wanna get there. I think he's a cash game, not a must, but I really, really wanna get there, I think is what I would say. My second love is Deontay Foreman. I do wanna get to Stony Michelle, but realistically, I need savings somewhere. Foreman is $6,900. His snap rate last week doubled to 66%. Could be a pretty similar script here, against a team that lets up a lot of long plays to running backs. He's at 130 plus yards, twice in the past three games. It's a great matchup. So I think that Foreman, although I'd agree with you where I don't wanna get there in cash, I am more receptive to it, but I think for tournaments, specifically he's a very, very good play. My third love is Devon Singletary at $6,700. It's very hard to turn down this role with that salary. In the four games as the lead back, he's at 93 yards from scrimmage per game. He had 110 yards last week, finally got above 100, congrats to Devon. He had nine out of 23 red zone chances. He converted on those chances too. So Devon Singletary, biggest lock for me this week, relative to salary, unless we get, actually probably above Vaughn, I think. I think he's number one, relative to salary. Where is he for you? We know that, we know what the role is. We're projecting it with Vaughn. Yeah. So I'm gonna go with Singletary. Okay. I think Singletary, Sony is a very, very, like locked in start for me. Yeah. And that's why I've got two running backs. I feel awesome about aside from JT and that kind of just translates over into that opportunity cost conversation. I've been bringing up a lot with Kupacop. Okay. If it goes Sony, JT and Double Tutty. And then let's put in the Steelers defense because there's a very low salary. Maybe not anymore. Whatever. Don't just still do it. I guess, I don't know, whatever. 6380 left. I go Stafford in Earths. Okay. Then I'm at 6300 left for receiver. That is pretty tight. So yeah, whatever. Let's move to wide receiver. What do you have there? Cooper Cup, 10,000. I know that the salary is high, but boy, he's been very good for a wide receiver. He has double digit targets all but two games this year, at least 95 yards in all but one game. The role is just so safe. And I know that there's again, that opportunity cost that comes into play at receiver. He's 12 catches and 136 yards away from single season records. So that's got something. And I wouldn't really feel like 12 catches is in a lot of receivers range of outcomes, but it sure is for Cooper Cup. My second level, I'm gonna go the whole way down to 6200 for Christian Kirk. There is one game with a high total and involves the Cardinals. That makes the only team with motivation and a high total, the Cardinals. So that makes me wanna play a lot of Cardinals this week. Christian Kirk in games since Zachary's role has improved, but in also games without Deondre Hopkins. 22% target share, which isn't that great in itself, but that's still 8.2 targets per game. Team high 31% area share, one and a half downfield targets per game. That's a good role, good offense for that salary of 6200. And my third level is gonna be Tyler Johnson at 55. It's kind of hard to find a lot to love with the low salaried receivers, but I think Johnson fits. He's run a route on 69% of the Buccaneers dropbacks in weeks, or he ran 69% last week. Six targets, two deep, one red zone for 50 yards on those. And then over the past three games with his team being more banged up, 79% route rate trailing just Rob Gronkowski. So, you know, I still think he's gonna be there three in terms of routes behind Evans and Gronkowski. I wouldn't fault anyone for going Grayson, but I think Tyler Johnson's also in play. I think he is too. My first love is Tyler Lockett. I had Mike Evans here, but then we'll talk about a lower salary buck. I like Mike Evans a lot, but Lockett, I think it's pretty interesting in the mid-range and probably not gonna be super popular this week. He's $6,900 facing Cardinals secondary. He's lost a lot of guys recently. In the games that he has played since Russ returned, Lockett has a 21% target share. He has 47% of the deep targets. He is one week further from COVID. Again, he seems to have a pretty rough go of it when that happened. So I think Lockett's a pretty good play at 69 in a situation where I'll have a lot of Cardinals and where I'll wanna run it back, specifically with Christian Kirk. Also my second love as he was yours. He has 24% of the overall targets without Deandre Hopkins. He is at 32% of the deep work. He has at least nine targets in every game in that stretch. It's a must win situation, $6,200. I adore him. My third love is Cyril Grayson. So you talk about Johnson, I'll talk about Grayson here. He ran 22 routes in the second half last week, whereas Mike Evans led 25. Grayson has averaged 3.2 yards per route run during the regular season again, 2.7 during the preseason. Last week he had eight total targets, all of which came in the second half. Three of those were deep. 81 yards in each of the past two games despite limited action. Very fast guy. Seemed like he has Tom Brady's trust, which is pretty key. So I like him a lot. We'll be very high on Cyril Grayson for this week. Let's move to tight end. What you got there? So we both have the same guys. Should we talk about just one each? Let's do it. I'll start with Rob Gronkowski then. I liked him for a bounce back last week. It's easier to stick with him this week after he performed, but he's got a single game target share of at least 15.7% in all but one game since he returned in week 11. He's got a 24% target per route rate, which is really strong. He's running routes. He's getting the ball. It's just gonna play Gronk pretty heavily at 74. And I think there's, it's really a two tight end race this week. I might not have more than three total tight ends across on my lineups. Also Gronkowski is playing well. Like that's noteworthy to I think. He said three multi touchdown games this year and no touchdowns in any other game. That's very weird. So like, if you look at like his game logs, they look kind of weird, but like that's just because of touchdown variance. He's very good. The other guy we're talking about here is Zach Hertz because I had Gronk as my first love too. Hertz is $5,600. He has a 27% target share with no Hopkins, 23% of the deep work, 20% in the red zone. He said at least nine targets each of those games. He's just under salaried. So like, I think for a cash game, the consideration set is only those two. I'm okay with Kittle for tournaments. Okay, with some knocks in Allen lineups, but just okay. I'm not really high on anyone else. I think that's just kind of those guys from me. So let's finish up with defense. What you going with there? I'm gonna go with the Buccaneers at 42. It is on the high end of what I typically recommend, but it's hard to, you know, like they're playing the Panthers who are seventh in pressure rate allowed according to pro football focus. They have reasons to play. They should be playing from ahead. And if I can get this Panthers offense playing from behind, I will take that because fantasy points come from sacks and turnovers, which there should be a few of this week. Yeah, I think that they're in play for sure. As far as the lower salaried one I like, it's the Steelers. They are five and a half point dogs against the Ravens. I've not checked that since the Yonte Johnson news came out. Let's just pull off handle sportsbook here right now and see where they are at. Five and a half still. Okay, fair enough. Receivers are very important. Anyway, five and a half point spread. I don't think they should be that big of underdogs. Maybe now at the Yonte, it makes more sense, but like looks like Tyler Huntley again. Tyler Huntley against Mike Tomlin, against a very talented defense in a must win game. I think that there's enough there. The offensive line stinks. So I actually don't mind the Steelers, despite the fact they are a counter process play as five and a half point dogs. I am very okay with them in this spot. Other lower salary defenses to turn to, I'm okay with the Vikings at 37. Mike Zimmer's last game. I think they might want to send him out in a high note. Facing Fields makes some mistakes. That works for me. Scrolling up. I'm okay with Baltimore at 4,000, given that the Yonte's out. You know, they're not a great defense right now. Seattle works at 41, you know, whatever. But I think that then we get tip bay and I think that they would grade out pretty well too. So pretty much on the same page as far as defense goes. That is all that we have here for week number 18. Brandon, any final thoughts for you after having discussed this late in full? I think it's gonna come down to staying tuned into the news but not reacting to everything in the sense that you change who you're playing just more to think about. This is once again a reminder to myself not to overreact to news that I don't like to guys that I don't wanna play. Yeah, I think just putting a lot of thought into everything this week, asking yourself about expectations in current context, account for the current context if other guys are sitting, et cetera, et cetera, and decide how you wanna view things there. I think that's the key thing for this week. That is all that we have here for today but do not worry because we still have more podcasts coming your way, not just this week on the FanDuel Podcast Network but also during the playoffs. We'll still have the heat check here through the Super Bowl for the single game sleep. We'll talk about that. So plenty of reason to stick around and make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, we have course on our Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, yet name it, you can find us there. And while you're there, leave us a rating and review as well. We also have, of course, NBA and NHL podcasts every week or every day, every weekday from Tom Vecchio. PGA back this week, Brandon talked about this week's event which is locking very soon. So we'll talk more about PGA in the coming days. Also, USC, the Austin Swain. A lot of good stuff here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed. Make sure you are subscribed. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at Goodwill13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. And I'm at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your week. 18 lineups, have some fun. We'll talk to you once again next week for the wild card round. 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