 Okay, traders, welcome to today's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. If you can hear me and you can see the tip mail welcome screen, if you type a Y in the chat box, that would be great. Thanks very much. Okay, so before we get going, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. As we know by now, trading any financial instruments carries an inherent risk. And most importantly, that any charts or instrument financial instruments that I review today, any positions I've got do not constitute investment advice. And they certainly aren't indicative of the views of tickmail. So for those who are joining for the first time, my name is Patrick Munnally. I've been involved in financial markets for the past 15 years. I wasn't always involved in financial markets after I graduated university. I went into the world of consulting. I eventually left a London PRC and did a startup consulting startup that experienced some rapid growth. Now, for 45 years there, I cashed in my stake in the business and decided to explore my passion for markets. I'd had a front row seat to the dot com boom and bust and had seen people quite literally make and lose a fortune in the markets overnight. So I started meddling or gambling more accurately. In late 2004, I experienced a period of gains, some quite significant gains at one point. And then as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out. The market phase changed. I didn't have a plan to pin what I was doing. And so as the market started to move against me, all I did was was average down. So I gave up all the gains I'd made over probably a six month period in about three weeks. And I ultimately ended up taking a six figure hit. And it was at that point that I decided, you know, I really had to get serious about whether or not I could make a sustainable income from trading. And so it was at that point that I decided to seek out a mentor, someone who could, someone who displayed excellence in the field of trading and someone who I could model my trading career of. And after an extensive and intense periods of working with this mentor over 18 months to two years, I became certainly more technically aware in terms of market structure and market flow. But more importantly, I had a significantly higher technical awareness, sorry, mental awareness. And it's really that mental edge that supports everything I do. My mental really helped me move from being a, I guess, commercially goal orientated individual, because of my previous commercial experience, I was very much focused on goals and targets. And I actually transitioned over a period into becoming a process orientated individual. And that transition wasn't easy. And it took time and significant self development. But in becoming process orientated, and learning to adhere to a plan to protect myself from myself, I've been able to carve out a pretty successful career in the markets. I came back to the markets in 2008 after working with my mentor. And since then on an annual basis, I've been profitable. The reason why on the screen at the moment you can see performance from 2013 is that's when I started my managed account service. And initially it was friends and family who saw what I was doing and wanted to get in on the action. And then it's kind of gone organically by word of mouth really. I don't promote this anywhere. I'm not actively looking for investors. So it's really been something that's developed. And like I say, that's why it's the performance there is from 2013 when I started sharing performance publicly. And really the key data for me is down here. So I've been 70% in terms of months, winning months, 70% just then the 30% losing months. But the key to my success to my mind is that my average winning month is just over 8%. My average losing month is just just over 2%. So you can extrapolate that out to essentially a two to three times risk reward ratio on what I'm doing in terms of my trading. And again, the key here is that I'm focused on the process because I know if I focus on the process and I execute the plan with with excellence, then that that will deliver the returns over time. I'm not concerned or emotionally invested in the outcomes of individual or small series of trades. I'm looking at the next 100 trades because I know that if I hit my plan here to that, that over that time period, my edge will demonstrate itself. I have a couple of other projects I'm involved in, obviously, Tip Mill and the one of their market experts in residence, I provide a daily market outlook, the chart of the day or trade of the day that I'm tracking. And the thing that takes up most most of my daytime anyway, because I've most of my my trading is actually end of day. But most of the time it's is dedicated to working. I'm the head of trading and trader education for a firm called FX Griswatt, where we develop emerging retail trading talent and we offer education and a community support environment to develop a retail trading skill. And then ultimately, what we do is we give them the or we give them the ability to overcome that the final hurdle for any trader and that's capitalisation. Because no matter how stringy you are in terms of your risk management, if you're trading, if you're only trading a small amount of capital, even if you even if you're achieving fantastic returns of let's say 30 to 50% per annum, that's not really going to move the dial or the needle so speak in terms of financial rewards. And so what traders tend to do is over extend themselves and over leverage and then they hit us because it's from frustration of no financial returns to match the percentage returns they're achieving. And ultimately, that's where they come unstuck but hit a small bunch of losers and and tend to then over leverage again and wipe out their accounts. So that's an FX Griswatt, we we help traders overcome that final hurdle once they've developed sufficiently and have a plan in place and backtested and forward tested etc. And then they're ready to go back into the markets. We're actually running a 14 day free trial. I'll post the link in the chat at the end of this session. And you can you can get a taste of what's on offer with the trade pro program. And I'm actually doing a webinar this evening at 6pm. I'll post that link as well. Just giving you a broader perspective on what's what we're doing at FX career swap. Okay, so I can see you a flavor of who I am and where I'm coming from. Let's now move into what I want to talk about today. Just before we move into the charts and flow and positioning perspective that I think is important as we come into the business end of the month now, two trading days to go. Information I share with the trade pro team here from City FX, their quantum team. With respect to month end flows and portfolio rebalancing has a significant impact into month end on on flows, specifically the US dollar as portfolio managers either have to rebalance in terms of buying dollars or rebalance in terms of selling dollars, depending upon equity, global equity performance. So at the moment, City are highlighting that there's, there's a decent or moderately strong signal that wheels, we should see selling of US dollars specifically against the euro and and the sterling as we head into month end. I think we've seen a little bit of front running of that flow earlier this week. And we'll see, or certainly we want to be cognizant of that as we as we head into into tomorrow. Likewise, in terms of option flow, another thing that's important to to have a broad understanding of, we've seen a flip now, we've seen a strong demand or let me just get off down the rules when he drinks. Sorry about that, guys. That's a newswire service. So what we're what we're looking at here is the flow in terms of options. And we have, we've seen a stronger demand for put. So that's downside protection. So that's basically the market being of the mind that there is likely to be further downside in terms of the euro dollar. And then we saw that flip just this week. And now we're seeing demand for calls. So that's that's traders looking for upside protection. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not of the mind that this, you know, we're going to be up trading at 120 in the euro, nothing like that. But and certainly implied volatility doesn't suggest that because we're trading back down into to pre-crisis lows here with respect to implied volatility. But we could see a gradual grind higher. And more, more specifically, I think certainly heading into tomorrow, we could see some, some upside in the euro. And I'll talk about that, that position shortly. As many of you will be aware by now, and certainly from a strategic perspective, and leaning towards dollar bearishness in general, may should have been a standout month for the dollar. If we think in terms of the seasonality, really should have been in normal times or more normalized times. It's normally the best one for the year for the dollar. But we're seeing the opposite this year. And I think we're going to see over the coming months now as this Federal Reserve liquidity really starts to take hold. I mean, we're talking trillions of dollars. But that's the market a loss without liquidity, we should start to see a new phase in terms of the dollar, maybe heading post election or into the election, a real sustained period of potential downsides. So I mean, that's a, that's a dynamic that I'm constantly monitoring. And if we think about it from a chart perspective, here we have the DXY. So this is the broader dollar index. And I've been watching, this is the monthly chart. Obviously, I'd like to pay attention to these monthly charts, more often than I've been eyeing them into the into the final week of the month, because I want to see where these monthly closes up. Now, certainly, I'm not necessarily trading off the monthly chart. But you know, this this these monthly charts help guide or give you a sense of direction with respect to longer term, developing trends or market narratives or themes. And if we think about this dollar, we're testing this, this major descending trend line here. And if we close at current levels or lower, that's going to be the third, or we could even really say the fourth rejection for tails up here of this trend line. And so to my mind, we can look reasonably at, you know, retesting the range lows. And so that will put us back down to this 95 area. Ultimately, what I would anticipate if this dollar story really starts to get going, is that we would have an equal leg in terms of downside here into this 87 area, or at least certainly back into these lows here at 8870. And if we take a look at the momentum studies, we can see a similarity in terms of how the momentum studies is set up here. So what I'd be expecting now is for this to roll over and come down and then get that additional side indicator also heading down. And so that would essentially then support this idea that we're going to see some some dollar weakness. Obviously, we want to see where we close. But certainly at the moment, it's it's looking, well, the dollar is looking vulnerable. And then we have the corresponding story in the euro, whereby we're sitting on this major trend line here, 20 year trend line. And again, fourth rejection, we're likely to see four sets of tails here and potentially a bullish close in in the euro close at current levels or just above. And again, don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves. And you can see that the volubands are contracting. And that normally precedes a bigger move. But initially, certainly, we can look to retarget these range highs at 115 from current level. So, you know, there's 500 pips of upside there in the euro to work with over the remainder of this year, certainly. So we'll see how that plays out. Also got a similar set up here in the euro. Yeah, now, admittedly in the euro, yeah, we could take out, we took out the triangle support here, we retested it, we rolled over. But it looks to me at this stage that we can say that this level here, let's just pull this down, you know, we're not able to get a close at this point anyway. And we're certainly we're sitting at the vol support the monthly. So we just one 14 area looks to be sticky, we're, you know, we're training 118 now and potentially putting in a key reversal, an outside key reversal pattern here that could set us up certainly to get back up into 121, the central tendency of the current range. And then we could be looking up 129, we've got to send the trend line. So again, if this euro is going to get going on the upside, and we don't know certainly it is yet, but you know, we can reasonably expect it looking at these price patterns. And I also want to pay attention to the euro yen, because that's got plenty of scope as well. Sterling, again, in this triangle, lots of triangles everywhere at the moment, as markets have been contracting. But certainly this sterling, a little bit weaker. Obviously, we still got Brexit concerns weighing on sterling. And we, you know, we have a 10, a 10 years political situation at the moment, certainly with the perspective of how the UK have managed coronavirus. But again, if we think in terms of the key area that we're, you know, where we can, where we're seeing support, well, to my mind, you know, this one 22 area, we're not able to get, well, we tested it there. But I mean, one, let's say 121, 121.30, you know, we're seeing decent demands in and around there. We can see the basis now. So I mean, if we can get, it's going to be a stretch target to see this, this closed bullish today, I think. But if we can get a close back towards the highs here, then, you know, certainly cable has scope to be going back to 134 initial 131 would be would be the target there. Some of these commodity currencies have looked like they're setting up as well to give give some decent moves. Now, again, from a market narrative and dynamic perspective, obviously we've got these Sino US tensions erupting. We're also seeing that Australia were leading calls really for for independent investigation into the COVID-19 and China's part in that. And obviously China then levied some tariffs on on Australian commodities. That's putting that, you know, that that's weighing on on the Aussie at the moment. But again, we think about, you know, these key levels, this 60 area is certainly defended now. And we look like we're going to close up in the range here this this month. And you know, again, if we just think in terms of the logical progression of the price here, price path, then certainly we can be thinking 68 70 70 and an upside target then towards 74. Obviously these will probably come down a bit, but 74 could be is a reasonable objective for this pattern, but plenty of scope in terms of the momentum studies. So I want to keep an eye on the Aussie. Kiwi also has a nice great monthly pattern setting up here. This is all aligned nicely in terms of divergence and we're getting a bullish outside reversal candle here in terms of the Kiwi. And again, what's important and I remember in terms of these monthly charts is that as you get as you have on any trading timeframe, you know, these patterns don't necessarily play out in the next candle. And you know, if each of these candles is monthly, you know, represents months worth of data, it's somewhat unreasonable to expect that, you know, this thing's just going to take off to the upside. I mean, it could do, you know, look over here when we came out of the 0809 financial crash, you know, we saw some significant range expansion. Not certain that that's going to be the case here. Again, it's really going to depend upon how these this economic revival attempt in the face of this this virus plays out. So at the moment, if we look at the effect of volatility in general, it's come back down significantly. I don't necessarily see it exploding, could do, we get a, you know, a vaccine or a cure, and then you can forget it, you know, I mean, this is likely to take off significantly in terms of risk appetite and that tends to support these commodity currencies. So, you know, you've got to you're always got to be aware of the complete environment. And like I say, you know, a holistic approach to this, you know, the I obviously the technicals to my mind lead, but it's the fundamentals then that drive the mood. So you want to try to be aware of those and what could be the catalyst for for a significant improvement. But certainly again, 65 will be a reasonable upside objective. So I mean, it's 400 pips or sorry, 300 pips there to blow it. And if we do get some traction and we can take out trend line here 6630, then we've got 70 target. It's more than more than reasonable to shoot for. So significant scope, I think in in terms of these monthly charts and again, got to pay attention to and to the close tomorrow, this moony or also setting up big double top here, triangle again, month bearish, very bearish reversal. RSI stochastic perfectly poised there. We've got like virgins. So I mean, the scope here is certainly back down to 13350 trend line 131 and 127 in extension. So again, you can see how these, you know, the markets are opening up here. There's there's certainly I see potential. That's the monthly view. And then, you know, so when I'm, you know, when I'm approaching markets and certainly trades and sets of it, et cetera, I always have those monthly perspectives in mind. And if I can get into a trade that is aligned with that monthly perspective, then I'll try and hold it, you know, to play for a larger multiple return. Doesn't always work out. Obviously, nothing does. But certainly, that's that's how I tend to tend to approach this stuff. Before I go into the other chart, the other charts, I did have a set up here, I shared it in the within the tick mill blog, and I took it myself. And just to show that, you know, I'm not like I said, I'm not the outcome of individual trades that isn't isn't an issue to me. But, you know, they don't all work. I had what I thought was a great signal here on the weekly and on the daily time frame. And we got I got into this, the Asian open on Sunday night, had a little pop up into the daily resistance bands and rolled over straight away. So I mean, it was a 70 pit loss, 0.7 percent account here. But again, it doesn't perturb me from taking the next set up now. So it's just I think it's important from a transparency perspective, just to show you that, you know, it doesn't work all the time works more often than not. And certainly in the next hundred trades, I'd expect it to show a decent return. But it's just can't, you can't be cut, you can't get, like I'd say, you can't be deflated by a loss or elated by gain, if you're going to do this over an extended period of time, build a career in a business in the markets. So going into the current setups, I'm, I'm, I'm long the euro, but one position at 10990. And I'm just looking here, I've been filled on a second here. This is an intraday setup. And initially what I'd look for is this 11050. And the reason why I'm looking at 11050 is that that's the interim equality objective. So I, my way of looking at the markets, I'm always looking at prior swings extended to give reasonable targets. And so in this instance, I'll be, you know, if this trade starts to work, the ads I've put on at 11020 there on the intraday, I'd certainly be looking to have it risk free by the time we get up here, because that, you know, we're pretty overcooked here now in terms of the RSI stochastic. But I know that we've got this monthend flow, et cetera. And so I'm prepared to give this some room, but certainly once I get to 11050 on the position I've added at 11020, that would be risk free for me then, you know, we'll have to see how we trade. But if we can, you know, if things do get going to the upside, certainly 111 would be a reasonable expectation, 11150, the price swing highs. And then we have the bigger equality objective at 112 and 1230. Here we go. 11240. So that's a stretch target to my mind at this stage, 11050 and then 11150. And again, it's it's thinking when you're putting these trades on and when you're looking at your targets, it's working from a position of logical progression. And so, you know, I'm not getting into this trade here and thinking, right, we'll be back up here in the next couple of days. You want to set and have reasonable expectations from the market, understanding the volatility of the instrument you're trading, understanding the price swings, the historic price swings and, you know, recent price swings here allows you to have reasonable expectations. What tends to happen with with new traders certainly, or less experienced traders is they they're really flexible in their expectations about about trades and they're they're no sorry, they're not flexible about their expectations in trades that, you know, they have, you know, big targets to play for, where they tend to show flexibility is in terms of how in terms of not having a plan so they don't have any money, you know, there's no trade management in place of and, you know, they don't have a regimented way of working through a logical progression for price and identifying these key levels. And so what that often leads to is they either hang on to hang on to a losing trade to for too long and average down into it, as as was my case back in 2005, or they tend to take profits too quickly. Once you get into the habit of actually being able to identify key areas in terms of, you know, what is reasonably possible with price action, then you'll be able to develop a better management system for your trades. So that's that's the euro. That's that's what I've got on at the moment. Now, when I once we get into the beginning part of next week, so once we're through monthends, I can certainly, you know, I can easily make a case for the euro correcting of it here, you know, work, like I say, from the momentum studies are overbought here. So we can easily correct and we could see like we've seen the last during the last period where we had this dollar sell signal at monthends. We've got through monthends and then and then we had you know, a pretty significant correction. So again, it's rare. Obviously, we saw a brief example here in terms of prices moving in a straight line. It's rare that we see that and certainly in the current environment. So I don't think that's what we're going to do. So I mean, although I have this bullish or sorry, bearish perspective on the dollar, I'll still tactically trade it from the long side, given the setup. So so at the moment, you know, I think we can potentially see this squeeze higher. We may not, but you know, probabilities would imply that we could. And but once we get into these key areas, if I get sell signals, then I'd be taking profits on my current positions and certainly then looking looking to trade tactically against that strategic view that I have. So this is again, it's about being. It's having this this mental flexibility to not getting married to any one idea. And you know, and then removing your ego from, you know, this is where people come unstuck is that, you know, they're bullish the euro and all they all they want to do is trade it from the long side. But the market, you know, is it's a it's a living breathing organism to my mind. And you know, you can track wades and corrections and extensions, et cetera. And so that's how you you can get more out of out of the market than just being, like I say, almost married to a core view. And that's where I personally think most guys come unstuck, guys or girls, sorry. So it's having that flexibility. So certainly at the moment, looking along the euro, I'm convinced of the fact that we're a little bit elevated here at the Volta to Resistance Bound. So this might be, you know, the end for this leg. And if it is, then where would I be looking? Well, immediately, I look for the equality downside objective and I'll put us back into the apex of the triangle. Oftentimes, when we break triangles, when we get that outside extension, we will see we'll see that thrust higher. And if we don't get if we don't make sufficient gains above the triangle to give us a retest of the triangle as a support in this instance, we'll oftentimes retest into the apex of the triangle. So that, you know, that midpoint of the triangle, that high volume nodes will often get that pull back into that area before we then reload and can get a more sustained move in the triangle breakout direction. So that's another factor to to consider. The other trade I'm in at the moment is, and I'll walk through my view on this the Kiwi, I've got a short position running in that. I think we're coming into some resistance here, we've had a good run so far. And as you know, the monthly chart looks fantastic. So it's not that I think this thing's going significantly roll over here. But I think we could see a correction. And again, in terms of the current target to my mind is this 64 area. That's the equality objective versus the move, the reaction high, reaction low. And whilst we trade above here, then that's that's the ultimate target for this move. Is that a quality objective first? And you'll see that that also coincides with 78.6 percent retracement. So I mean, this, you know, if we do see this divergence that we've got in the momentum here, and maybe, you know, we're going to get Trump probably come out with some gusto on Twitter with respect to this, this news in China this morning regarding Hong Kong. So that likely weighs on these commodity currencies. So again, just thinking in terms of logical progression, we could see a decent pullback here. But, you know, that pullback and into this, you know, I would imagine the Bolvans kick up a bit there. That pullback will then be an opportunity to get in on the long side and target that move. So again, I'm just and how I actually initiated this position yesterday, and that was on the intraday charts. And you can see here as we were trading at the highs yesterday, very in mind on the daily chart, we've got that trendline and we've got divergence and we're trading at the Bolvans resistance. So when you get that intraday divergence, then allows you to get into these trades at really excellent risk-reward ratios. And so with this one now, if we don't, if we hold the current highs here, what I'd anticipate is is again, step by step, first, down side ejected 61. 21, the 161 extension of that structure then set up. The potential for a head and shoulder scenario here. So again, just working it all through. This is the hourly chart, obviously. So that would then give you a potential impulse to the downside. Head and shoulders, that first break of the head and shoulders off in a very crowded position to enter the market. So what we then, what we then likely do is see is a correction versus that initial impulse. And from there, we get another leg of downside equality, obviously, what we'd look for. And then that would take us into, you know, the area where then I'd be looking to rebuy. So just that's what I'm looking at there in terms of the Kiwi. And then the Aussie is the other one that I'm looking at. And I'll just run on a bit here. But I've been looking for a while. If we go back to the daily chart here, you'll see. And I posted again, these have been posted on a little more blog this week. But I'm looking for this sixty seven area to get to get pinged and we will get sixty six eighty is the equality objective. And we we held that yesterday. We're holding above the VWAP at the moment on the close. The reason why I wanted to get that sixty seven is that is that seventy eight point six percent retracement. And just about there, we've got the monthly R1, weekly R2. So I mean, if today we can get up into this area, I'll be looking on the intraday charts, certainly to see if I can get a similar setup. I mean, we did get it yesterday, but I was watching the Kiwi saw more weakness in that. But certainly now this this Aussie can we see one six one extension this move so we could see this this type of pattern play as we get here. And if you bring in the fibs. So yeah, that's sixty seven just touch of the sixty seven today and more divergence versus yesterday's high will will be a sell signal for me. And then I'm looking for this to to roll over and certainly get back down here and see the same story as the Kiwi basically. And we probably pull back and like I say, head and shoulders sort of set up and get back down into that sixty three thirty area. Well, once again, once we can work off some of the overbought momentum, you know, you can see clearly on the daily chart here. Then I, you know, I'm not I'm not very bearish, but certainly I think in terms of the the current thematics with Trump and China, we can see a bit of a pull back here, but then I'd be looking to to reload and play for play for higher levels. And that really feeds into the final chart I'm going to show you today. This is the S&P five hundred. I've been raffling on about this for ages, but I'm looking for the S&P to hit thirty one forty thirty one seventy. And I see that there as a natural area to take profit and see a correction and that correction then would broadly coincide with seeing some corrective action in the Aussie and the Kiwi. And again, no doomsday predictions here. We could if we hold the seventy eight point six here could hold the seventy eight point six here and we could be in a triangle basically in a long term holding pattern or certainly into the fall as as we wait to see whether or not we've got a vaccine and or cure before we potentially could see a second and the second wave come this winter. So this is why I'm saying this is ample opportunity. I think, you know, now in terms of ranges and setups that are developing. So hopefully you you have taken something from from this today. Are there any questions with respect to anything I talked about? You can you can type in the chat box if you. Useful if if you don't have a question, you can type an end. Just so I know that I've covered off everything sufficiently for you to understand the points I've made today, which is the markets and the setups. So like I say, long the euro, a couple of positions now and short the Kiwi at the moment, but watching those monthly closes and and seeing where where the dollar chart shakes out to give us some guidance in terms of direction for the coming months. But certainly again, we can backfill even if we do get a bit of close here. We can back and fill a bit before this this move really starts to play out. OK, there aren't any questions. I'm going to wrap this one up here, Traders, and I'll catch you all sometime next week. Thanks very much.