 Hey folks, how's it going out there? Hope everyone's having a good trading day so far and a good trading week for that matter It is taco Tuesday for all those who celebrate this momentous holiday I'm trying to lighten the mood a little bit because it's been pretty heavy. There's been some crazy stuff That's been going on around the world. Let's be real. I'm sure it's been weighing on a lot of people's minds and It certainly had a role to play in some of what we saw yesterday as well And we we definitely saw it playing a role In the way markets were pricing yesterday Going into yesterday. We had a pretty deep sort of overnight sell and we saw this big spike in crude and Pretty decent size jump in gold as well all that made sense the sort of geopolitical hedges come on You've got folks piling into long bonds buying the dollar as well There was also some technical reasons for that type of development to occur. So we're gonna dive into a lot today We're gonna talk about S&P Nasdaq bonds gold and oil We're also gonna be looking at those live on book map during the trading day watching how the liquidity is moving the market So let's start diving in glad to have you all with me if you enjoy my streams Feel free to hit the like button share it with your friends So first and foremost I'm markets and mayhem. I'm sure you've heard of me if you haven't like to introduce myself really quickly I'm an experienced trader and investor. I started in 2005 Really navigated through the great financial crisis trading my own money on my own account. It was Let's just say trial by fire type of experience You never really see the whole world fall apart before your eyes like that And I got to learn a lot about the financial system about the economy about the plumbing that kind of holds everything together And it also gave me a little bit more appreciation for more than just the charts, right? I was always a technical driven trader But then I started to learn more about the other elements intermarket dynamics sentiment flows and positioning Economics and how they can impact the broader picture and it doesn't happen instantly, you know You get a piece of economic data doesn't mean within five minutes the markets gonna price it But it can have a broader impact over time trends can form So I'm really interested in looking at the market from a number of different vantage points And then trying to find those ideas of Coalescence or confluence right where there's multiple different Indications that something may be presenting itself as an opportunity as a longer-term trend or even as an intraday opportunity and So if you want to find out a little bit more about me I'm a co-founder of trader aid and macro visor trader aids all about short-term trading If you're interested in trader aid and and what we're doing over there You can get a 30% discount with the code book map 30 at checkout for your first month of trader aid plus You can also check out macro visor calm where we make macro actionable if you're a longer-term investor And you're interested in how the big picture distills into market trends and opportunities over longer time horizons That's what we're all about at macro visor And you can find my youtube where I post educational content about trading about the bigger picture That's YouTube comm slash at mayhem number four markets or mayhem number four markets And also book map has this really awesome offer. It's about up to 40% off Go to trader aid comm slash book map trader aid comm slash book map And it will load a page on the bottom under the special offers section. You can see those discounts Now let's get through the legal ease the disclaimers everyone's favorite part of my presentation General disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice Nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. I think we all know that's the case my general advice Be careful out there That's it. Just be careful out there. This is not the type of environment where things are very certain And so this is my whole theme here really co-lessons as a compass it's it's what I've been talking about in these book map presentations for some time I Think it's a really important idea to consider if you're a trader and you're looking to improve probabilities To have better outcomes What do you want to do? You want to put the odds on your side, right? The more that you can see different elements in the market those puzzle pieces being put together That help you put the odds in your favor The better off you might be it also might keep you out of trouble If you have situations where you can't put these pieces of the puzzle together You can't see that potential confluence or co-lessons then guess what? Maybe it'll save you from a bad trade Maybe it'll help you become more disciplined trading successfully over long periods of time is a marathon And it is all about Discipline I wrote a great free article on trade raid about what trading is really about if you're newer to this game Or you're just not having much luck check out our website check out the free article It's got a lot of information for people that are newer to trading. I think that everyone should consistently re-evaluate and Iteratively improve their trading systems because no strategy is going to work forever You're gonna have to fine-tune. You're gonna have to adjust as market regimes change We have to be aware of those dynamics. So that's another thing. I always like to tell traders is keep your mind open Because you're never gonna be a hundred percent perfect You're always gonna have room to improve. The other thing is have reasonable expectations Some folks out there say they have a 90% win rate. I'd love to see that the best traders in the world are typically about 60% Realistically you can't get to those crazy win rates that some people are saying oh, I never lose a trade Oh, it's all lottoes and lambos be careful with that those folks are gonna mislead you the reality is Look for holding on to those winners cutting losers rapidly and even a 40 or 50% win rate can be immensely profitable I know it doesn't sound like it because you're doing the math You know like ah, but that's not as you know, that's like basically a coin toss. Yeah But if your winners are 30 40 50 percent and your losers are like 8 to 10 percent that math adds up And that's exactly what we should be looking to do rather than setting unrealistic expectations And then failing at them and feeling bad because no one can trade that way set realistic expectations Take notes about how you're trading keep a journal so you can go back and review what's working and what's not working And remember one key thing to everyone out there There is no one-size-fits-all trading system. You have to figure out what works with your personality So let's look at some of these key gamma levels in the s and p 500. We all know about 4200, right? That was such a big level last week and we basically touched it Just about the moving average the 200 day was just right below there as well And we got a healthy pop and it looked like there was some decent risk appetite coming in around there So that puts us into a situation going into today where we are now We're really looking at this 43 50 level on the right chart here of the gamma exposure right above us as a Potential area of resistance and then right below us, of course We have 4300 as a reasonably chunky area, so we kind of have this range we can bounce in Wouldn't be too surprised if we kind of get caught in this range Maybe it'll be a little bit of a bigger range up to 4400 as we get into options expiration for this month Which is happening not this Friday not this lucky Friday the 13th with big bank earning season starting but next Friday Okay, so just keep that in mind These gamma profiles are helpful in the sense that it's one of the forces That has a big role in pushing the markets around these longer-term options positions The other part is of course the zero DTE is and we get into the live stream. I'll show you a little bit more About how those are interacting based on the tool that I've created Now we're also still in negative gamma territory right here is really our flip level. That's going to be 4392 so you could basically call it 4400 we know there's a huge amount of positioning above us there now This is the most important thing to understand about negative gamma if you're not super familiar with positive and negative gamma This is the primer negative gamma leads us to an environment where dealers are more likely they don't have to but they're more likely Depending on their positioning to hedge in a way where they are buying Rips and selling dips and so if you think about that that adds to volatility it adds to total price range When you get in a positive gamma environment, you have the opposite, right? You have Basically dips being bought rips being sold and that makes it more likely that you have a lower volatility regime and so that's something to take into consideration in the environment one right now because we could be getting closer to that Positive gamma regime now There's also statistical correlations with these when you're in a negative gamma environment You do have a risk of larger moves in the VIX and you have more likelihood of downward moves in the S&P Just statistically speaking and when you get into positive gamma territory Those larger moves in the VIX particularly to the upside that possibility is reduced and you generally have more constructive price action So that's just something to keep in mind if we're looking at statistics and correlations and kind of going back in time on this stuff That's one of the things that I keep coming back to and we were very very deep in negative gamma last week That was one of the reasons that things got pretty darn hectic on the volatility side So just keeping an eye on that 4400 level. It's not just important because of gamma exposure It's also important because that's going to be the flip So let's look at some of these key levels the S&P 500 for us to watch the delta between the S&P 500 cash index and The S&P 500 E-minis futures contract is about 33 points So you can screenshot this and save it for later These levels are probably going to remain pretty similar throughout the week here But really it's just as we talked about we're looking at that gamma level of about 4350 as a potential area of resistance as we get into the trading day today That's not too far above us if we're able to break above that I think that does open up some additional potential upside We've got 4375 and 4400 to watch and we're just basing that on options positioning But I wanted to have those levels available the main one again We're gonna be watching today though is that 4350 level I think that's gonna be more important if we're able to push above that I think buyers gain a pretty significant advantage to keep pushing price Now let's look at some of the other dynamics going into today. This is our retail Sentiment it's really a AII bears versus bulls or bulls versus bears It's the ratio and we can see this has come down a lot this year, right? This is this is the peak euphoria We had in 2023 over the summer where the idea was the market is going to go to infinity There's seven stocks. It'll lead us to S&P 6000 yada yada. I'm being a little facetious But that was sort of the mantra when you see this type of euphoria. It's generally a good time to de-risk Okay, and and certainly that ended up being the case and it's it's an extreme right if Everyone's loaded the boat with stocks and they're all long Who's left to buy and that's sort of what you see and that kind of blowout reading well now We have a bit of the opposite. It's not a Washout like look at the lows that we saw during the banking crisis. That was fear, right? That was real fear and a real washout We're not quite there yet. This is closer to sort of angst just below neutrality. Maybe it still tells us There's room for retail to become marginal buyers folks like us You know have been kind of sitting on the sidelines or even doing a bit of de-risking over the last couple months There is room for folks to come back in and buy on the margins and areas in the market. They find attractive Now well, let's look at the professionals. They had a similar blowout. Look at this They were leveraged up here. This is also in the summer. So it wasn't just us It wasn't just the retail folks that were out there feeling really good in July It was actually the institutions as well that were getting pretty darn bold up there And they were putting on long leverage So anytime you go over over a hundred on the NWA I am reading that means they're actually not just getting long But adding to leverage longs, right? And then we saw again the same thing like we saw with retail except for this is positioning We saw that big washout and now we're at a level that is close to the lowest levels of 2023 That lowest level was actually reached by professionals in August not during the banking crisis But actually recently so to me this is more important than what we're seeing in retail sentiment This shows us that there's been a pretty big de-risking by professionals and they're they're able to buy they have buying power now They have also Not a high amount of hedges, but they have some hedges on we'll take a look at that in the form of skew on this next chart Here is skew on the S&P 500 and again similar theme here but basically you have a reduction in hedging activity as Positioning has come down in particular like we see from August where there was a very big boost in skew going into September's OPEX and August's OPEX we saw that drop really significantly had another shoot-up again Like I was saying towards September's OPEX, but now we see this I would say really just a lack of hedging and That makes sense because you've got positioning coming down pretty significantly. So what is there to hedge? And then in terms of momentum here, we're about flat. Okay, this is the nice emicle in oscillator It looks at breath. It looks at momentum and it's telling us we're just starting to push into positive territory We did get pretty oversold Not not too long ago the recent selling didn't bring us to oversold levels on a weekly basis But it did on a daily basis and we're pushing up into positive territory Typically when you see breath and momentum push into positive territory, there's some degree of continuation It doesn't always happen. We can see there's some occasions where you know, it didn't go very far But most of the time it does I mean look at all the times where it really did move far So that just tells us that there's a shift underneath the surface that breath is turning more positive that more issues are Getting a bid and that can be constructive particularly given the technical environment that we're seeing We also have at the margin the CTA's momentum driven traders They de-risked and then got super short between September and into early October Now there's no more selling to do based on this model from Goldman Sachs If anything, there's a lot of buying to do at the margins These guys could become buyers of about 80 billion dollars of S&P futures exposure Over the next several weeks, which is interesting because it also coincides with a time where seasonality is actually more constructive for the market from about Mid-October on it's generally that we get a bid through the end of the year Volatility tends to crest and fall and markets tend to move higher now. That's just seasonality That's that's just looking at data and coming up with what often happens It doesn't mean that's what will happen It just means based on analysis of prior trends over, you know, the last 20 and 50 year periods October really mid-October on Tends to be a pretty constructive time for the market and everyone's heard of the Santa rally and all that the other caveat however that I will add here is that we are to buy back blackout ahead of Q3 earnings that can reduce some of the bid for the market and we're also in the end of the year for mutual funds who basically if they have losers You know, they might do that tax loss harvesting in October, right? So that's just a couple things to consider as we navigate into next week with OPEX and some of the flows that Will change in that time period So let's take a look at the S&P 500 This is pretty interesting where we are right now We're sort of bumping our head up into a key area that I think could be chunky resistance We're just testing this 20-day moving average as well So this is what is going to be my area that I watch for a pivot today if I want to get long into Continuation it's going to be moving above that 20-day moving average in this area of price action resistance We can see with MACD. We're starting to get a little bit of positive momentum. That's a decent initial sign We did test this trend line. We had a pretty good little break below, but markets wanted to push back above That's also constructed the bulls are back in control of the intermediate term price action That's what this is telling me here And I think that's what we have to watch going into today to see if we get that continuation So zooming into an hourly chart. This is the area of resistance that I've been watching pre-market and You know as we trade where we look like we're actually going to be pushing above that area as we as we open here in about 12 minutes But that's going to be the the pivot that I really watch for this in the opening range is going to give me a better idea Is today going to be a continuation of that Monday Friday rally dynamic? It's very common that a rally that starts on Friday continues through Monday But what happens on Tuesday is much more important for the trend. Okay, so if we look at just Previous statistics when there's a good sell-off on Friday. There's also generally a continuation of selling into Monday Monday It's that sort of Friday Monday flow So just something to take into consideration as we're trading today for me I'm going to be looking at opening and pushing above building volume above this pivot to qualify as a Basically an area to start adding to longs in today if we're not able to hold here and we reject Meaningfully and we start to pull lower. I'm going to be looking at this trend line here. This is the same trend line from the prior chart It's also a pretty chunky area of the hourly volume node That would be an area that I would look at shorting into for a bounce, right? So we're going to be looking at where we are at the open and just after to get a sense as to if we have continuation or rejection and consolidation Next up we have the NASDAQ the NASDAQ looks pretty constructive here, too it tested that uptrend line from October and It is back above It's also looking more constructive than the S&P 500 in that it is above its 20-day moving average So the NASDAQ, you know has been the leader this entire year and it's showing that leadership quality once again as It pulls up above the trend line up above the 20-day and is just balancing below that volume weighted ishimoku cloud and This point of control that you can see on the chart the biggest area of that volume This is going to be a bit of a magnet here We've got so much positioning here between buyers and sellers I wouldn't be surprised if there's a little bit of fighting around this level But whoever does push this either above or below that point of control or if we get that rejection at the cloud and below The trend line. I think that's going to determine Where we move next on an intermediate period today? I think we'll be more of that tug of war and so we're going to be looking at NASDAQ and S&P to get an idea of Where momentum is and what type of trades might line up? But if you're a longer-term trader and you're watching this it's a little early to get too bold up We still haven't seen what I would say is a thorough proper bottom here I'd really like to see this push up above the cloud and Really close more thoroughly above this point of control to say that the bulls are back in control a hundred percent But buyers do enjoy an advantage here versus sellers Let's look at the bond market because who isn't talking about the bond market We've had the worst bear market in US bonds in history over the last two and a half years And it's a pretty big deal when we're talking about long duration risk like the NASDAQ or the so-called Magnificent 7 or really any of these growth or techie or other areas particularly the ones that are more rate sensitive where they don't make any money What are we seeing on this chart? Well for one? It looks like we found a little bit of support. This is a pretty important level This is a point of control that goes all the way back 20 years of price action Why is that important because this is a place where people like to buy ZB which is the 30-year futures contract for that bond So this is an important area to watch very closely Because if we do get a decent bounce here, we can actually move pretty appreciably higher, right? I still think it's in the context of a broader downtrend And I'm not so sure that that downtrend has changed in any meaningful way But what it does tell us is if we get that sigh of relief that breather and countertrend bounce could be bullish for equities Could be bearish for dollars could be great for gold So there's some opportunities to key off the longhand here as it might consolidate and move a little bit lower just on some of the technicals being exhausted and On this huge huge huge absolutely multi-decade level of potential support that is worth watching Let's get into crude oil it bounced at a level that I thought was pretty important This is something that I shared on the trader aid discord talking about this trend line is super important to watch It is a level where we've had a lot of contact in the past You know and we just see it as validated because of that and so once again, it's validated, right? We have a pretty big low volume node that we're chopping in right now So this is going to be a key area of decision for crude It really does need to push a little bit higher to show that the uptrend is solid and intact We did get rejected at that 20-day moving average yesterday So we still have a position here that buyers are in control, but they're not fully in control I'd like to see this push above the 20-day and push above this high volume node to really demonstrate that for now I still think it's pays to be constructive on crude from a long-term trend basis and some of the energy companies That are in that space have had such a nice pullback. There's some very attractive opportunities there But in terms of the the oil itself, I'm gonna watch and see how it trades today I don't have a strong bias intraday for this thing. I think longer term It's very much in an uptrend but intraday it could consolidate some of those geopolitical tension-driven gains that we saw And here's gold and gold seems to be trying to put in a bottom here But this is one of those areas of the market that it really burns a lot of people on both sides, right? Gold is a great vehicle to lose money in let's be honest And I'm I'm just saying it because you know, there's a lot of times where there is technical or You know macro catalysts for gold and it just does not behave the way that people would expect I will give gold credit where it's due the resilience that it is experienced this year is impressive, right? This is a year where rates were soaring the dollar was rising for a bunch of the back half of this year so far And gold's been relatively resilient with all of that going on So, you know got to give props where they're due in that sense on the other side of it However, we did manage to bump across this pretty key area of resistance here We are consolidating from there were below the 20 we are still in a downtrend of you know We've made these sort of series of lower highs and now we've made a pretty meaningful lower low So I would say that we're not out of the woods gold is not necessarily shown us anything resembling or reversal in order for it To do that. I'd like to see it push above the 20 day and above this other area of resistance that it's formed with touches in the past Because that's gonna put probably start to pull us right back into that point of control You know typically when you start to see a push towards a magnetic area the volume profile like that You'll get some continuation and that would also likely push a lot of these sellers out to cover their shorts Add into that upside momentum the prior chart looking at that that 30 year bond Gives us a little bit more of a sense that maybe just maybe Gold will have that bid because rates in the long end are coming down So something at all up bubbles are right now enjoying a technical advantage overall They're not fully in control, but they're in better shape than the bears are Nasdaq and S&P are really looking like the strongest of the two indices the Dow and the Russell Seem like they've really gotten beaten down and they really haven't enjoyed the Advantage that the S&P and the Nasdaq have being so options driven particularly the S&P and also the concentration of that Magnificent seven were still the market leadership. I think they're a little bit over bid here I think we're due for a rotation, but that's not a subject for today that S&P 4350 level I think will be pretty important pre-market cash were just under that by about 10 points Rate seem to be taking a breather And we do have a three-year note auction today our results will be in just about Just after 1 p.m. Eastern and we'll have a 10-year tomorrow And then we'll have a 30-year so we've got a pretty good amount of different auctions happening this week We do have CPI happening this week as well. That's going to be tomorrow with PPI on Friday as I recall and so we do have I'm sorry, you know PPI is gonna be tomorrow and CPI is gonna be the next day So they've reversed things this week, which is always interesting But nevertheless, I think that PPI with 10-year auction tomorrow and CPI with the 30-year auction on Thursday Will be very interesting events to watch both the reaction to rates You know after the event and then how well the auctions do that's gonna give us a sense as to what markets are thinking about inflation Just like today's three-year auction will give us a better sense about what markets are thinking regarding the Fed's resolve and any Potential future rate hikes we had daily and another Fed speaker come out and basically say the long end is doing some of the Fed's work For them, maybe they don't have to hike again. We'll see I wouldn't consider that necessarily Universally dovish though. It's basically the Fed saying well, maybe the bond market will do our work for us If it does effectively the same thing has happened. There's further tightening of financial conditions and The dynamic that we're seeing right now If bonds have been exhaustively sold off if the dollars have this really powerful rally that needs to consolidate from maybe retrace a bit That could be supportive for markets. It could help to give gold a bid as well We've looked at it potentially leveling out oil seems to be consolidating as we discussed after these geopolitical events and that big Surgeon price we had yesterday doesn't mean that that upside is over an oil But I think it has a little bit of digesting to do afterwards. So today. I'll be watching the 20 and 30 minute opening range for Nasdaq S&P crude oil Bonds we're gonna look at the the ten years and how they're trading and we'll also look at gold and then finally just as a broader note We discussed seasonality supports the market beginning to move higher from here So we are just about less than a two minutes away from the market open So I'm gonna switch up to my book map stream here Give me one second on the discord so I can pop that screen for y'all and I'm also gonna just put these indicators up on the YouTube stream. These are the market pulse indicators So that should show you kind of another area of how pressure is forming in the S&P and Nasdaq based on volume So we are just here right before the open We're gonna zoom in a little bit on the Nasdaq and the S&P to really get a good sense of the price action as we do open and Folks if you have any questions out there, feel free to pop them in the YouTube chat or on the discord If you're on the discord, just make sure to tag me in so I know to I get a notification for your message because I've always got a lot of screens going I'm not always able to pay attention to all of them at the same time Less than a minute from the open here You're welcome. Thanks for tuning in. It's always fun doing this stream and enjoy all the support Here we are the Bell's just about to ring We could see some resting liquidity above us right here, but not enough to really get my attention We have the most active call level from yesterday printed on the chart and here's that opening bell Let's take a look at the Nasdaq to Nasdaq's getting a nice bid off the open here Bonds have a little bit of a bid off the open here They were closed the bond market was closed yesterday outside of futures and crude is Got a bid pre-market, but at the open. It's actually seeing some selling here And look at that S&P didn't catch a bid for too long at the open here now retracing Thank you Carl. Appreciate that We do see a little bit of institutional nibblink We could see the icebergs starting to build just a little bit, but not enough to really catch my attention We'll move back over to the Nasdaq here pretty choppy range there as well We can see the point of control or pushing below that the white line being the view app We're also testing that now now sellers have actually managed to pull that point of control a bit lower Now we can see that that sort of bracket of liquidity around the Nasdaq shifting around. This is pretty interesting here This is the sort of opening chop that one can expect some of it's a continuation of the order flow We had and like the last 15 minutes of the prior day before close S&P kind of following that theme of the Nasdaq there the sort of very choppy open We did not see S&P sellers put enough volume through to push this or pull this point of control lower and now we're starting to push above it here and Like the Nasdaq just some tepid accumulation by institutions with these icebergs rising nothing nothing too Noteworthy however of yet Pretty choppy overall and remember one of the things that is a theme here is That we have lower liquidity dynamic the order book is a little bit thinner on the depth and what we had seen Earlier in this month and later in September. What does that tell us? It tells us that it takes less volume to move price more It also tells us you're gonna have this sort of erratic price action at times and that's exactly what we're seeing here It's a little bit more. It's not extreme by any stretch of the imagination But it's just a little bit more choppy Nasdaq S&P enjoying a pretty similar look trying to figure out what they want to do again We're watching that 20 and 30 minute opening range for a better sign as to what kind of trend may develop Let's also just pull back here. We can see what resting liquidity looks like There is some resting liquidity building below in the Nasdaq, but not enough to get my attention and the S&P Pretty similar picture. There's there's nothing really really big near price here We've got this level just above this 303. I would not be too surprised if that gets filled. That's so close to price We also got that 348 below. So we're starting to see More of these resting offers and bids respectively coming on the book A lot of the news flow right now is geopolitical in nature We also have a ton of Fed speakers this week. This is like a reality show that just never ends with the Fed speakers Pushing closer to that resting offer on S&P around 4380 here Little bit of institutional distribution on the icebergs falling a bit Nasdaq continues to be choppy as well. Not really showing us any signs of leadership this morning I often like to look at it because it tends to be the sort of high beta momentum leader often pulling the S&P around Although yesterday that was not the case maybe a little continuation of that theme today or it's a little bit more I would say indecisive We do see stops getting Blown out here that that little stop run that we had in the nasdaq did take some of the smaller traders out of that It's really interesting to watch the stops in the icebergs. I think it's one of the most valuable components that Bookmap provides because it gives you a better sense as to some of this order flow that's coming through from larger players And it's all coming through Rhythmic and then the stops and icebergs plug-in so you can put that on the the active chart You can put it on the sub chart for me It's been a game changer because when you see really big gaps Like if this was a situation where stops were getting blown out and institutions were buying that blow out aggressively That would make me more interested in accumulating around key levels. We don't see that yet We don't see anything quite resembling that yet But that's one of the reasons that I could get excited about that because if you think about it If small traders are getting blown out of their speculative positions and large traders are buying that and and doing it aggressively So in the you know in the amounts of thousands of contracts That would have me more interested and wanted to take a long another thing that we saw going into the close yesterday Was some large institutional player like I think 15 20 minutes before the close bought 2,500 es contracts And that put a bottom in right there not that yesterday was a big sell But that that stopped any kind of distribution into the close because who wants to go against that Who wants to Challenge someone who's willing to that aggressively buy the dip. We do see some selling pressure coming in We see actually now there is some iceberg buying in the nazak and there is broader distribution From those smaller players getting stopped out We have broken this uh sort of five minute opening range to the downside So if you're a higher frequency scalper, this is an opportunity to look at kind of riding that continuation But what would give me a little bit of pause is that institutional players were buying Basically the contracts that the long specs were being pushed out of let's move over the s and p It's a bit of a different picture here a little more muted We did not see a breakdown in the opening range But we do see resting liquidity building below us just around the same level that the most active call strike was yesterday Shift over here to bonds Pretty boring Not much going on here in bond land. We are below the view app and point of control And we did see a decent size iceberg buy, but did not necessarily push price higher for long In crude it is continuing to consolidate that big sell that we had kind of going into the open Has led to further pressure and that's a good thing for rates. It's a good thing for stocks unless you're in energy But I don't think it's necessarily over yet There's still people that are coming in and accumulating this this contract S and p now pushing above view app and the point of control We do have that resting liquidity just above us here. We saw that bid. It just got pulled out We were just talking about it at 436. It's gone And now we have that uh offer starting to grow a little bit above us 390 at 4380 Would not be terribly surprising to see that taken out if we did then we'd start to push through that opening range to the upside on s and p Let's look at nasdaq nasdaq looks less decisive and less constructive than the s and p here It is now testing the point of control Breaking below it now testing view app We do see more accumulation from institutions icebergs continue to build you can see another order there another 221 Someone likes that number. They've ordered that many contracts twice very choppy trading in the nasdaq You do see a little bit more of that dichotomy between small specs getting pushed out and larger Institutions buying that's the negative stops and positive icebergs. You can see that sort of uh Expanding I would want to see it as a broader divergence, but This is at least telling us institutions are buying the contracts that the small specs are being pushed out of Now this is one of those weeks where I would keep an open mind on both sides of the trade It's you can't necessarily get a very strong bias. There's a lot of moving parts here We've got you know ppi cpi bond auctions geopolitical event risk fed minutes um consumer sentiment There's a lot of different moving parts behind the scenes that can change things at a moment's notice So for me, I'm navigating this market with smaller position sizes Shorter time frames for my day trades because I just don't want to have that risk on for very long when things are moving so fast And you can see why this is a difficult market right now to really get any kind of non You know high frequency scalps anything that's a longer term inter interday trade It's just not looking like it's set up quite yet We're just trying to figure out if the market's going to give us any real clear sense of trend This is starting to look like a bit of a uh a sell down here though in s and p now We're making a 10 minute opening range break down Again, I like to look at the 15 the 20 and the 30 a little more Especially the 20 and 30, but this is still serious This is you know, you see these folks getting stopped out Institutions are not coming in to scoop up these shares and you do have more liquidity coming in below Let's see what the nasdaq's doing. It's not confirming that it's it's actually put in a bit of a higher low here And testing vwap from below so interesting The nasdaq was the loser earlier now. It's the s and p We see rates beginning to move higher as bonds are seeing some distribution here And there is a large number of resting bids appearing in this tenure note futures contract lower from here And uh, that's something that's worth paying attention to because if rates do begin to become under pressure again They start to move higher again that could put more negative pressure on equities Oil starting to firm up just a little bit maybe putting in a short term bottom here as it pushes up above the point of control And test that vwap level we'll have to keep an eye on that one though. It's pretty shaky And folks if you have questions out there about what you're seeing on the screen What i'm talking about the items that I discussed in the presentation earlier Please feel free to post them in the youtube chat or post them on the book map discord and just tag me in Let me know what you're thinking what's on your mind If you have any feedback for me about the presentation things i'm doing well or could do better always open to that as well And just want to thank you all for tuning in if you enjoy this hit that like button And check my check out my work on my youtube and my twitter as well I put a lot of great information out that I think Benefits people of multiple different time frames and backgrounds and disciplines Really if you're in the market, you know having more information that is signal rather than noise is important And uh, I think looking at the big picture and then zooming down to these micro details like we're doing right now Is also pretty helpful just to understand the different moving pieces of the puzzle So we are just sort of chopping along that pivot level that I had identified in the pre-market session I haven't really seen the decisive break above it yet. I think if we're able to push above that Really, uh, you know that large resting offer around 4380 That's going to have me more interested in looking at taking a long But I would love to see it push above there build some volume And then start to continue moving higher that would have me confident Wanted to take an intraday long particularly as it would start to make it look like we're experiencing a positive trend day We're not quite there yet Discipline pays in this game not taking trades that don't line up with your thesis or your system Is very important as some say some of the best best trades you'll ever make are the ones you don't take Let's go over to our friend the nasdaq here the high beta beast and it is starting to really break out here This is uh looking at least a little more encouraging. Let's keep an eye It did make a new high post open And it's continuing that volatile chop If it can touch down on this point of control v-bop level and then push above and make a new high That's going to look really constructive for intraday momentum So I'm buying a little bit of bonds here. I just got an alert from the bot that I have doing audio alerts I could probably turn that on for y'all. I'll just put that on the background. So those alerts come through for you all as well There we go I'm just gonna pop on a scanner just take a look at what's going on in the world options here bear with me one moment Some bullishness and spy calls got about a half million dollars of premium flowing into those looking for 435 436 on spy for this actually Yeah for this uh today, there's zero dte's that they're putting that half million premium into Also have someone buying a 180 strike Iwms at uh 280 thousand dollars of premium there so pretty serious bullishness And then of course to be expected you've got lockheed martin getting a pretty Pretty decent bit on the call side with geopolitical tensions rising. It makes sense that you would see a bit of that That was 174 000 going into lmt for the 445 strike Let's go back to the s and p 500 We are now pushing higher here. We're close to the highs of the day again looking at that 4380 is kind of a line in the sand I think if we can push above that and build volume, it's going to look constructive for a bit See how the nazdax doing Still consolidating it did make a new post open high, but it's pulled back It did hit the view app and point of control like I was talking about Now we really want to see that push higher So it's like putting in a higher high higher low and then higher high That's going to tell me that it's it's really ready to start moving here And we're getting closer to that point where we'll start to define that 20 minute opening range is about two and a half minutes out Going back to s and p Just sort of consolidating again, nothing nothing terribly exciting yet Just saw a tesla call for 101 000 premium at the 265 strike The options premium flows are relatively bullish overall so far today The put side is is a lower amount of overall volume and premium paid Coming back on s and p testing this point of control And view app point of control moving just a point higher here as volume starts to build around this level this 4375 We've got about 11 minutes left for my stream I know we haven't had anything terribly exciting happen in these markets But hopefully I've at least left you with some ideas as to how this day could trade cnc 3c bot at rythmxl 500 I'm going to be really waiting at this 20 minute opening range at rythmxl 813 And that's uh, that's my little bot Looks like we got some selling going on in bonds. That's what it's alerting us to here and we do look at this You see the tenure getting some distribution. You see liquidity building lower There's that large resting bid at 107 090 and that could pull rates a little bit higher here So that's something to watch that's why I have those alerts because I'm not able to watch all the charts at the same time So if the bot can kind of tap me on the shoulder and say, hey, there's something interesting going on over here I'll look at that chart. We did have though this large iceberg. Look at that 2000 On a buy side for these tenure note futures. So It's not exactly um a clear set Down downward move here, right? You've got institutions that are continuing to accumulate into weakness And the crude contract continues to roll over now. We're actually below the point of control and vwap wasn't able to defend that level And it's pretty choppy in terms of where the liquidity is coming in and leaving on this one Yeah getting another push here. This is getting a little more interesting. This is a new high for the morning Let's see if we can push above that 4380 level and get a real move by these buyers. It shows us they're determined We want to push above there build some volume really start to see this point of control get Pulled upward and that would have me wanting to take an interday long on the basis that Maybe we're really going to have a trend day I would feel a lot more comfortable if rates were moving lower But you know, we we have the market that we have in front of us And folks, I hope you've enjoyed this stream if you do like What you're seeing on screen if you enjoy this type of content this uh, sort of trading oriented Multiple time frame multi asset class content. I work on two different services providing this both free and paid There's a lot of free content on both these services So don't think this is just a pitch for paid you can check out the free if you like it You can consider upgrading check out traderade.com And macro visor com on traderade. We've got a limited time offer 30 off on traderade plus monthly plan with the code book map 30 You can go to traderade.com slash book map. That's traderade.com slash book map And also get up to 40 off the book map software If you're interested in that just scroll down to the specials And then at macro visor you're welcome to sign up. We've got all kinds of longer term oriented content Really cross asset class strategy macro driven thematic trading some pretty cool stuff. And remember on both sites There's free content too. So you can kind of get a feel for what we're doing before you commit I see my stream got kind of pulled asunder here. So I'm just gonna Straighten that out here on obs. Sorry about that folks And if you see these gamma levels on the chart for s and p, this is actually a tool that I built And we're starting to see these calls come in quite a bit higher 7 000 calls What would be equivalent to about es 44 60 and we've got these puts there's a pretty big difference of opinion here They're coming in quite a bit lower around 43 25 on yes These are levels that are dynamically converted from spx to es by looking at the prior days close and Doing a delta calculation automatically We've got this key gamma level just above us here This is likely to be a bit of resistance. It's Right above that area of resting liquidity at 44 80 and we are testing those levels So it's starting to get a little more interesting here You do see a little bit of institutional distribution here. Not a lot just a little you see some stops getting blown out to the upside And we see this resting offer above us thinning out a little bit. Maybe some was absorbed here And I've got just over five minutes left on the stream folks So if you have any questions any feedback anything you'd like to share Feel free in the youtube or the discord chat if you're on the discord just tag me in But we're getting closer to that level. I'd really like to see a push above 43 80 I'd like to see it build some volume there and then that I think would be pretty constructive for longs On the other side of it if we get rejected here and we pierce below the opening range lower Which is going to be just around this level Let's just make it neat and clean call it pierce below 43 70 would have me wanting to take shorts A move above 43 80 would have me wanting to take longs on either move I'd be looking for volume to build to kind of show us there's acceptance at that level Let's take a look around the market before we close out the stream We've got the nasdaq chopping around it has not made a new Post open high yet unlike the s and p. So it's not giving us the same level of conviction Let's see if it can do it in the next several minutes here. We've got Bond or notes here the tenure note future is getting a little bit of a bit off the low You know not too long after you had that huge iceberg order That's one of the reasons it's always worth looking at these because if you're a short And you see someone coming into that kind of size you're probably going to get a little bit less Determined to push price lower. You might even want to cover a bit And then in crude it's just kind of flat and it's starting to move down here It built some volume here now. It's starting to see looks like the acceptance for this move lower You could see the point of control has been consistently dragged lower. That's bearish for crude So crude's looking weak. It looks like there could be some continuation to that downside There's any amelioration of geopolitical tensions that'll pull crude lower as well So just worth watching this one here because this might help to give a bid to the non-energy parts of the market It may also help to put a bit of a bid into rates as we're starting to see they're coming lower as price It's price is pushing higher on the zn contract And coming back to s&p. We are starting to just see more resistance here. This level is key We can see the market's telling us the same thing that we talked about before we even explored this level This is going to be an important line in the sand Let's go over to the tech laden nazdak Just really it's trying to make that new post open high but not with any real determination But what I like about this chart is we've made at least this higher high from here this higher low So we've got that pattern. We've got another higher low. Now. We need to make that higher high That's the last thing I really want to see to tell me that buyers are in control But they are above the point of control. They are above view app. That's at least looking constructive So we're going to really key off the s&p today because it seems to be for once actually giving us A little bit more clarity on price We also see this is nice to see this if you're bullish. We see liquidity building above us in the s&p. Look at that I got that 4402. This is kind of newer that 385 on the offer. You have offers building up at 4387 4390 4393 this is constructive. This is exactly what you want to see So it does it does if trend can push higher if we can get above that 4380 level and accept there It does tell us that there's offers that are wanting to Distribute at those higher prices and in an illiquid market like we are today The auction is going to seek liquidity where it can Okay, so if we push higher, it's very likely you get pulled into those levels like magnets So I've got just over two minutes left here. I want to thank everyone for tuning into the stream Feel free to hit the like button check out my my feed on twitter Check out my youtube channel and the work that I do at trader aid and macro visor I'm back here on book map every tuesday at 9am eastern So I will be back next week and we'll talk more about what's going on. There'll be a lot to digest I think it'll be a lot of fun to review kind of what's happened going into that week And that'll be an options expiration week. So you've got all kinds of interesting cross currents going into that Yeah, thank you. Thank you for tuning in really appreciate it love to share what I'm seeing and hope it helps you all make better trades And also just learn a little bit more about other people's trading styles. Again, there's no perfect style There's no one-size-fits-all system The biggest thing about trading is learning about yourself and what works for you Because once you start to get that in gear you can have a better sense as to how You can trade with discipline to reach greater consistency and become a more successful trader We're starting to push above 4380 here. This is that level It always seems to happen as the stream's ending that we start to see some kind of decision I've noticed this is a theme. I wonder if I should ask for an extra 20 or 30 minutes But anyway, let's see if we can push above here and build acceptance if we can it's going to look like a pretty constructive day for buyers That's exactly what I was looking for. It's part of our game plan. That's going to be our key pivot Let's watch for acceptance above 4380 in a build a volume pulling the point of control higher That'll be a nice entry signal to push this market up into a trend day So hope everyone enjoyed this stream. We do have that 20 minute and 30 minute opening range breakout Starting to happen 30 minute maybe a little early to say but 20 minute opening range definitely breaking out of that And looking much more constructive here just looking for some volume to build But I think it's a good place to at least start to take some starter longs into this move So thank you everyone for tuning in. I really appreciate the support I hope to see you next week and again if you have any questions for me feel free to reach out You can always reach me on twitter or on my youtube or by You know leaving a comment in the um the book map stream video I'll be checking out on the the video later and and seeing if anyone left any comments and finally Uh and look at this. We're getting the breakout. Look right right as as the stream set to end We're getting the breakout it happens every time So thanks everyone really really appreciate you all tuning in. I'll catch you now