 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnis and Dr. Ed Feng. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and numberfire.com. As today we are wrapping up the 2020 NFL draft and talking about the betting implications of what went down with Dr. Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Ed Feng. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com. Ed, the draft is in the books. It was a lot of fun to watch and I have just something to talk about on Twitter. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty good. It was fun to get some live sports. You know, I didn't enjoy it as much as I thought I would. Why? I thought a lot of things were kind of weird with the presentation and just the remote and like, you know, what stage is the prospect at when he like finds out? I thought a lot of it was really kind of strange, you know? Like, it was obviously different for the obvious reasons but it just, yeah, the broadcast wasn't as enjoyable as I wanted it to be. I think my standards were so low because of what we've been deprived of the past months, a couple of months. I was like, I will take whatever. You could just have a camera on Roger Goodell as he gets into weird poses for four hours and I won't complain. I'm in, you know, let's do this. But that was part of the problem. Like when he made fun of himself or people booing him in a silent room in his basement, it was just weird. Yeah, so like I didn't get to see that part because we were doing our live stream on the Fandal YouTube page. So all I saw was him like turning around and like talking to people and he would take forever to spit out the pic and I was just like angry because I was like, just say the pic so we can analyze it. Come on, you're just trying this out to torture me. So I didn't get that part. Well, and then the however many minutes, like how many 15 minutes before they even put the Bengals on the clock and then the Bengals take the entire time. And, you know, so it's like 20 some minutes until we get the first pic which we all knew it was gonna be anyway. Yeah, that was, it was interesting. And that one, it's always the first pic because we always know what's gonna happen and they just decided to draw it out. But any big takeaways from the draft for you? Yeah, for sure. I mean, obviously Green Bay situation. I've been ripping on Green Bay for a while. We expected them to do a lot of things like get a wide receiver to help out Aaron Rodgers. And of course they, you know, go get a quarterback in the first round, get a running back in the second round. So yeah, I mean, it was nice for them to actually do that. So we could have something to talk about. So I appreciate it. It was not nice if you have Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones and your dynasty teams and like you're hoping for Aaron Rodgers to get some help. You're hoping for Aaron Jones to continue to be a kind of do-it-all type guy and both those dreams were shot. And so I was not exactly as excited despite the fact that it is fun to occasionally dunk on teams. I was just kind of mad the whole time that they decided to sabotage me. I think this was a personal attack by the Packers against me. Yes, definitely you and maybe a little bit Aaron Rodgers. Yes, exactly. What else stood out to you, you know, as far as the draft goes? It was pretty chalky, but anything else stand out to you? Yeah, no, it was pretty chalky. You know, I mean, I think seeing Tristan Worf's not be the top lineman off the board, but actually be the fourth lineman off the board and then go to Tampa Bay. Let's not talk about Tristan Worf's. And yeah, well, I actually get into them a little bit later in covering the future. I thought that was pretty interesting. Otherwise, yeah, pretty chalky but yeah, I mean, it was a lot of sports and that was nice. I think the one thing that was disappointing for me was day two when the Bengals decided to take a wide receiver instead of offensive line. And this is something we talked about when we were discussing Sam Darnold and how to best bolster his performance was get offensive line and put him in bad situations less often. The Bengals have a pretty bad hole at several spots along their offensive line, but I was kind of hoping they'd get a right tackle to help him out there in the draft. And I had talked about the Bengals over previously on this show under the assumption, which is dangerous on my part, that they would do something to improve the offensive line in the draft and they didn't do that. So I guess I was just kind of, like I loved having the draft, but it also like kind of like made me fidgety and angry for a couple of reasons too. Well, I mean, there's certainly gonna be that. We all have vested interest in these teams with various bets. So yeah, I mean, some things are gonna make you angry. What's your outlook for Joe Burrow in year one? I feel like I'm the lowest on Joe Burrow out of anyone I've talked to. People think that he's gonna come in and lead a team all quarterback, rookie quarterback struggle, even the first picks. So we gotta put that out there. And I still think there's just something to, the fact that we saw one good season from Joe Burrow. Couldn't win the job at Ohio State, transfer down to LSU. And he was amazing last year, but I just need to see more. And it gets infinitely harder when you get not infinitely harder, but it gets significantly harder when you get into the NFL week, week by week. And I just see him struggling. Yeah, I think, so there are two different ways, two different things that weigh on my mind here. The first one is a, like you said, the profile is not pristine because he's older and older, less experienced first round picks at quarterbacks. At quarterback, never pan out. Like, if you look at guys who fit in those buckets since 2000, only one of them has gone on to have a top 10 season in net expected points, which is number fires expected points metric. There's only been one top 10 season and it's not just one player. There's only been one total season. That was Carson Wentz, the year he almost won MVP. Outside of that, like Mitchell Trebisky, Mark Sanchez, he run through the list of these guys who are 22 or 23 and don't have a lot of experience coming out, a lot of them bust. Now, and there's also the offensive line, which I talked about, where he's going to put in bad situations often. The reason I am still okay with Burrow is that he was so freaking good when things broke down last year that it's hard for me to say he can't excel despite a bad offensive line. But, you know, we talked to, we're having Dr. Eric Eger on today. He has talked about how performance in under pressure is less sticky because there's smaller samples and stuff like that. So like even that's not a major thing. So I get where you're coming from. I also, it's hard because like I want to love him, but like there are those like tiny red flags that are always kind of like flashing in the back of your mind a little bit. Yeah, for sure. And I mean, as impressive as he was last year, I mean, there was always the play against Georgia where he got away from an NFL caliber linebacker and made a great play. There were two of those actually against Georgia. And I have gifts at both and stage them on my computer because they were awesome. Yeah, they were awesome. But, you know, that's like every play in the NFL. And I just have my doubts about whether, you know, I mean, I think no one's going to disagree with me that he's going to struggle. But I think, I don't know. I expect him to really struggle. I mean, it'll be interesting to see who the backup there is, whether they keep Dalton around and whether that affects things and how that season is going to play out. Clearly, it's going to be one of a great storyline to follow for the season. I don't recall who it was, but there was someone on the ringer NFL show with Kevin Clark who was talking about how there was actually extra value in Andy Dalton this year because of COVID-19 and how he can be like a mentor in helping burrow a simile to the NFL. So I thought that was super interesting. But asking a rookie to go into a team with a bad offense line and succeed in year one is tough. But we'll certainly see. We're going to talk more about the Bengals with Dr. Erieger. He is a data scientist at Pro Football Focus. You can find him on Twitter at pff underscore Eric. We're going to talk with Eric about the actual value you can gain from the draft from a betting perspective, which teams did the most, which teams did the least and how that impacts their win totals for this year. We're going to have plenty more content coming up on covering the spread as well because sports are starting to come back very slowly. USC is back next week. NASCAR is back the week after that. So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, you name it, we are there. Make sure you're subscribed. And if you like what you hear from us or Dr. Erieger, make sure you rate interview the podcast as well. Now before we get to Dr. Erieger, we got to do covering the past for the first time in at least two months. Go back through some of our NFL draft bets and well, they definitely could have gone better. Covering the past. All right, we did a couple of draft bets here on covering the spread that we wanted to discuss and not all of them went so hot. And I think that they make more sense when you note, when we note when they occurred. The first one we had was back in November. It was I think the week after Tua hurt his hip. I mentioned taking that 11 to one to go first overall and that was before Joe Burrow went absolutely like unconscious against the teams he played in the SEC championship game in the semifinal and in the finals. And it made sense that that one didn't hit. But I thought my thought process was he was this hyper efficient young quarterback who did so against good competition. So I don't mind the process behind it despite the fact that it did not work out. Other ones that occurred during draft season and alluded to Tristan Werffs and Tristan Werffs and I are not on speaking terms right now. I had mentioned the under on Tristan Werffs draft slot at eight and a half. Obviously that did not hit. I'd also had a piece up on Number Fire how it was, I was talking about the Jets first overall pick and I was like, okay, you know, I think there are two lines of thought here. You go with the guy most likely to be available or you go with the guy that I think they would want the most. And the guy I thought they'd want the most was Tristan Werffs and he was seven to one. So when we were on the draft stream and I was like, okay, you know, the overhead on Tristan Werffs draft slot but he's still here for the Jets at 11 and I could hit seven to one there and they went Mackaybeckton. So, oh well, we had a good run. We did mention the Jets draft and offensive linemen here on Cover In The Spread. That was plus one 10, it hit not a big hit obviously because it was just plus one 10 but hey, you know, we'll take it. The other one I had was no running back draft from the first round of plus 150. I was feeling so good about that for 31 picks. The Dolphins passed, the Seahawks passed, it was great. And the Chiefs ripped my heart out. I think this was like betting karma like repayment Ed because they were so kind to me in Super Bowl. They were like, you've had your fun. Now we're gonna break your heart. We talked about what would happen if it got late in the first round and what happens if Kansas City had the last pick and I think we actually said, oh, that's a lock. Like how are they not gonna pick up something, a player to help their secondary, a cornerback. And then of course they drafted running back. Yeah, I knew it. I had a good feeling the Dolphins wouldn't but like you look at the history of Andy Reed and like he had never taken with the Chiefs a running back in the first two rounds. I don't think in his entire life he had taken one in the first round. And I knew that they were probably in play for running back. They also had only five picks. I thought they might trade down. There were a lot of reasons I was pretty good with this at plus 150. We almost got there. It didn't quite get there. So this is just payback for me for them doing well for me in Super Bowl. We had talked last week about the number three pick about it going against Jeff Ocuda. And I was on board with that one. We had a company like betting pool for the NFL draft and I actually had two there with the Dolphins trading up. Didn't happen, but like it was an interesting pick for sure. Yeah, for sure. I've heard some rumors that Detroit could have traded down and Miami definitely wanted to at that spot and Detroit could have still gotten Ocuda. Don't know if those are actually true those rumors but I think it would have made a lot of sense but didn't work out and that's how it goes. There was another rumor that the coaching staff from the front office for split where the coaching staff wanted Derek Brown the front office said no, we're going Jeffrey Ocuda. So potentially some of the Derek Brown stuff may have been coming out of the coaching staff and then the Jeffrey Ocuda thing may have been via the front office. So we'll see how the sands shift there up in Detroit. Hopefully things go better for us post draft but you live in there and I select the process behind all the bets and I am not going to complain too much. Today's podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Racing. FanDuel is doing its part to continue to bring sports fans excitement by offering users the chance to bet on horse racing. Use your existing FanDuel DFS login credentials to gain access to tutorials to learn more about the sport including understanding how the odds work, the various types of bets and most importantly how to win your bets. Watch all the races live across over 300 tracks and fill the void left in your sports fandom today. For more details visit racing.fanduel.com or download the FanDuel app today eligibility restrictions apply. Let's bring in Dr. Eric Eager now pro football focus. You can find him on Twitter at pff underscore Eric where I've talked about the betting implications of the 2020 NFL draft. Some wind totes he likes this year and break down all his thoughts from this past weekend. Let's welcome Dr. Eric Eager into covering this spread. Eric, it has been a while since we last chatted. The draft is now wrapped up. You've hopefully had some time to rest. How you doing? I'm doing okay. All things considered, so much has happened since we last talked. It was a lot of fun to see Kansas City won the Super Bowl and we had about a fun month of XFL and then all this sort of crashed down. It was really fun to sort of get a live sporting event last weekend. Yeah, no kidding. It was fun to gather around on Twitter, make fun of the Packers again. I feel like it's the nation's truest pastime but we haven't spoken to you like you said since you were in Miami for the Super Bowl. What was it like to see the Chiefs pull it all off? It was strange because I remember basically early in the fourth quarter I was in a group chat with some friends and when Mahomes threw that second interception we all sort of resigned to the fact that the game was over and then I texted my wife that I was sad and then they in classic Chiefs fashion scored 21 points in the last six minutes of the game. So it was a whirlwind. It was a lot of fun. It was a crazy scene and it was really cool to see somebody like Andy Reid end up getting a Super Bowl ring. I think that was my favorite thing about it too is because we want intelligent decision makers to be rewarded so that the rest of the NFL will model their games after them and then Andy Reid because that takes a running back in the first round. Eric, what's going on, man? Yeah, the only people that were happy with that pick were people who had the over one half running backs prop with the under one and a half running backs prop which is I somehow locked into those early in the process sort of as an arbitrage and then it ended up getting the middle. But yeah, as a Chiefs fan it doesn't make a lot of sense and then you see today that they're starting cornerback where they just gave a new contract to gotten a little trouble down in Florida as one does. So it's a little bit of a strange pick. Obviously we're going to give the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt because they just won the Super Bowl and they're generally fairly good at making smart decisions but that one, other than if you're a fantasy player it was a pretty big head scratcher. Yeah, I think for there it's definitely pretty exciting so it's conflicting because it's like I'm excited to use Clyde Edwards-Ylair and like everything next year but regardless, we still love Andy for sure. Now let's talk about the impact of the draft here, Eric because we get excited about the draft. There are lots of new players. It's fun landing spots. In theory, every team should get better but from a practical perspective how should it actually alter our short-term outlook for each team? What's the actual tangible impact of the draft? Yeah, I think for most teams it's pretty negligible because for example with Joe Burrow we knew he was going to Cincinnati. We sort of knew that that team if you take all of their close losses and give them like half a win there were kind of a five, six win team last year and then depending upon how you sort of look at it I think Burrow is probably a one win upgrade over the combination of Finley and Dalton last season so for them I think that that's faked in a little bit to their number although I kind of like the overs we'll talk about in a little bit but for other teams, the only thing that I think hampers it can hurt a team. I think when there's an unexpected possibility of playing a rookie quarterback early but I don't think it can help teams fundamentally because as you guys know there are very few non-quarterbacks that alter the point spread in an NFL game and as such there are very few players who move the point, the win total any more than half a win in a given off season so I think of a team like Tampa Bay they're a team that I think short up a decent amount of holes I think Under is probably still a smart bet for them but there's far fewer things that I think can go wrong for Tampa Bay sort of moving in to next year and then there are other teams like for example I think the LA Chargers if they have to play a rookie quarterback early I think they'll really there could be a situation where that over is no longer a good play. Excellent, well you can't answer our next question in terms of if there's any teams that made sizable gains in your expectations obviously everything you said makes sense in terms of what we know from non-quarterbacks affecting the point spread are there any other teams that you want to mention that really stand out on drafting? Yeah, I think there's this time of year when you like a team's over you have to sort of chip away at reservations you have and for me two teams in the NFC East that I think are far more fundamentally good than the records indicated last year are the Dallas Cowboys who by all indications if you look at yards per play if you look at points for and against you look at the players on the team they were much more than an eight-win team a season ago they opened at nine I think it's nine and a half now I have fewer reservations about them haven't taken Trayvon Diggs to replace Byron Jones and then adding CD Land to a strong receiving core I have fewer reservations about going over for them or betting them as the favor of the NFC East but interestingly I think the same thing about the Philadelphia Eagles because they were a team that struggled at the wide receiver position they were playing AAF players there towards the end of the year they just got a whole lot of good athletes and good players in the draft so those two teams in an NFC where I don't think it's particularly top heavy there's a lot of good not great teams I think those two teams are firmly in that position so for me those two teams were the ones that changed it the most for me and I think the Eagles are interesting because we saw them be aggressive in trying to address what seemed like a lack of athleticism on that side of the ball on the offensive side of the ball last year getting Marquis good when you can question that but Jalen Rager, I mean he was a super high usage guy at TCU, what's your outlook for the Eagles now that they have made those changes and then also potentially increase their floor should Carson Wentz get hurt by adding a guy like Jalen Hurts to the vault too? I mean, I think that's exactly it, right? Hurts is such a, Hurts is like a no downside player at this point other than the draft capital that they took him with but you know, Rager was a guy I think the stat was is he had the among the top receivers in the draft he had the highest rate of uncatchable passes thrown his way at TCU. You know, as far as athleticism score he was off the charts from a jumping and running perspective and that was even with a poor performance relative to what we expected at the combine. You know, they even added, you know, deeper options or Davion Taylor as a linebacker, you know Malcolm Jenkins leads goes to the saints Davion Taylor as an athlete who was extremely Isaiah Simmons and then everybody else for me at the linebacker position I think Taylor was underrated relative to the rest of the guys like Queen and Murray that were taken a little bit higher. So, you know, I really like, you know where they're at and, you know with the coronavirus being a thing with conditioning might, you know, being an issue. I mean, they've already seen Carson Wentz has taken this team to the playoffs three consecutive years and has played less than 10 playoffs snap. So you, they are trying to mitigate, you know, and Josh McCown gave a gutty effort in January, but they're trying to mitigate having that circumstance happen to them again where they have to go with their back or quarterback and the team against them is beatable and they're just not good enough at the position to do it. Yeah, absolutely. Let's look at the flip side of things here. We talked about the teams that did well. Did any teams actively damage their short term outlook based on what they did in the draft? I know that might be hard but like relative to expectation, did any teams take a step back? You know, a relative to expectation I think you can make a case that teams like Baltimore and teams like Kansas City when you're trying to hang 11 and a half win totals on these teams. I think the under is just more plausible, especially so for Kansas City when you look at what could go wrong, you know, last season they were so lucky that Basad Breeland, Trevarius Ward, you know, those players were healthy the whole year that if you get any sort of perturbation to that back end, I'm not saying they're not gonna win the AFC West and be a Super Bowl contender, but getting 12 wins is extremely hard in the NFL. And I think with them only having six draft picks and using the top one on a running back, I think you add a little negative variance possibility to them. I think the same thing is true about Baltimore as well because when you look at the, you know, where they struggled in the playoffs against Tennessee, it was really when they needed to get a throw by Jackson, they just didn't have reliable targets. You know, Marquis Brown is a great down the field player, but none of their players were a, you know, and Juan Bolden type player, you know, to stop, you know, stopped a yard ahead of the first down and take an accurate pass and get a first down and they didn't address that position until later in the draft with guys like James Prochet. So, you know, those two, obviously there's downside there. I think the clear one though is Green Bay. When you look at, you know, last season, there were 13 and three. And in many respects, they were the 49ers away from being 14 and two, the one seed and then the NFC representative for the Super Bowl. And that's why they're trying to emulate the Niners. But if you look at the team level fundamentals, they were really more like a nine or 10 win team. And they're being hung a nine and a half right now, I think Detroit improved, Minnesota's an F1. But like, it's gonna be hard for me to go over that total for Green Bay, you know, coming 2020. Yeah, I want to go back to the Packers here in a second. Let's talk with the Chiefs because they're really interesting because not only is there win total 11 and a half, but you're getting plus money on the under. It's that plus 105. Do you recall seeing a number, you know, this large in the recent history? Cause it seems like, it seems like just monstrous. Well, we talked about Andy Reed. Andy Reed has gone over the Vegas total every single season he's been Kansas City's head coach. And so I think a lot of people are just saying, look, I'm just gonna bet it and forget it with Kansas City. I'm gonna call up with my money no matter what. I mean, last season, you know, they had, they had to start Matt Moore for a game. You know, Mahomes has banged up for a bunch of others. Hill missed time, Watkins missed time and they still won 12 games. And I think when you look at, you know, a lot of people say, well, they've only lost three games to the AFC West since 2000, since week two of 2015, you know, that division isn't getting a whole lot better when you look at the Raiders, but maybe the Chargers and Broncos are a different story. So it's just a trend. I mean, people, it's like the Patriots, right? For years, you know, people, the sharps bet on the dogs against the Patriots and got hammered. And when you look at wind totals in a specific market, eight, you know, when the Alex Smith was a quarterback, the market always underestimated the Chiefs. And now when the Mahomes has been the quarterback for two straight seasons, they've cleared the total easily. So they're just, they're just making, they're just daring people to bet the under. And I, frankly, even though I'm a Chiefs fan, I don't think it's a bad play. Yeah, that's super interesting. Let's head a circle back to the Packers because they kind of dropped the bomb on us late in that first round trading up to not draft a wide receiver to help out Aaron Rodgers, but to take the quarterback Jordan Love who's definitely considered a project. What do you make of that? You know, I think the, I think the love pick interestingly, even though they traded up for him and he, you know, I don't think of him as a great prospect. That was their best pick of the whole draft. And so that tells you everything you need to know. Like AJ Dillon, if you look at his combine measurables, awesome, you know, 250 pounds over six feet tall, 447, I think 449, maybe huge vertical lead. Like he's a great athlete and he is a good performer, but in the second round, you know, while you already have Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones there, is it, in my opinion, a disaster of a pick. And even though I like Josiah DeGuara as a player, he's more of a fifth, sixth, seventh round tight end. There's no reason in a draft full of bad tight ends that you would reach for him in the third round. I mean, Kyle Yuzcheck isn't worth a third round pick and he's Kyle Yuzcheck, right? And you're trying to project a guy into that spot. Like it's nowhere near, you know, that valuable. So, and then the other three or other four picks, you know, in this, in day three, like three of them weren't even ranked by our big board. So it was just a rough time. And now part of me thinks to myself, okay, well, Rodgers is going to be motivated. You know, he's still, I think, you know, first bout, Hall of Fame quarterback. There's a lot of things like, and the NSC North could be very weak. Minnesota had a great draft, but you know, the COVID-19 is probably going to keep them from having the development early that people think they will. Detroit's Detroit and Chicago had, you know, almost as bad of a draft as Green Bay. So I still have a hard time being like, okay, an under is a lock here, but to me it's the only side. Yeah, and looking at this one, you were talking about checking off concerns if you want to bet the over. Like Green Bay kind of did the opposite because I think if you were to have concerns about them, you'd have concerns about, okay, is Ricky Wagner at right tackle? Is it Billy Turner? What do they do there to replace Brian Belaga? And can they get pass catchers to prop up Rodgers as his play declines? Do you think that the decline for Aaron Rodgers justifies the pick? I know you said it's the best one of the draft, but what's your overall evaluation that you in a vacuum without considering what they did the rest of the way? Well, I don't think Jordan Love is a first round prospect. Honestly, our projections really like hurts over him. Even something like Anthony Gordon is a lot better. You know, Jake Fromm, those guys performed better than he did a season ago and they played in tougher conferences. So for me, when I think of quarterbacks, you know, there's four or five, six of them where it doesn't matter, right? Anything can happen to them. Russell Wilson, you know, you can basically do anything. And I think he'll have success. Mahomes is probably there as well. But for the middle class of quarterbacks in the NFL, all you're dealing with are uncertainties. And Kirk Cousins has had five or six offensive coordinators the last five or six years. You know, Derek Carr is the same way. And so when people go and make excuses for Jordan Love, like, well, his supporting cast sucked, his coaching set, like that's the life of a middle class quarterback in the NFL. And if you can't overcome that, I mean, you know, that's one of the positives of Burroughs. He changed offenses in one year and turned it into the best offense we've seen in college football in quite some time. And so I just don't like him as a pick. And so I don't think he overtakes Rodgers anytime soon. Now, the cool thing when you look at the, you know, for example, the difference between the Cowboys and the Packers, McCarthy and Rodgers' best seasons are when they had Jennings, driver, and then they supplemented it with Jordy Nelson in the second round. And then they went James Jones, you know, and then they went Randall Cobb when he would have been their fourth receiver. They had a bounty of wide receivers. And what we've seen in Green Bay over the last three, four years is that has gone away, you know, piece by piece. And now he doesn't have anybody throw to other than N'Vante Adams, who was once their third receiver and now their best receiver. Dallas, of course, McCarthy learning from that, putting three good wide receivers on the same team, Packers haven't. And I think that will ultimately be the downfall of that offense is that as much as they want to go big and as much as they want to run play action, scheme players open, you face third downs in the NFL when other teams know you're going to throw. And if you can't be diverse and you can't be multiple at the receiver position, it's going to be hard even for the best quarterbacks to have success. Yeah, for sure. So the Dolphins have made a ton of changes this all season, both for the agency and the drafts. The wind total is currently at six with, you know, minus 120 on the over. What do you make of the Dolphins team heading in the next season? Yeah, I mean, this is one where you play the division, right? So, you know, the Jets seem destined. The Jets are going to get a seven win-win total as long as Adam Gaze is the coach, right? That's basically him. And you look, you watched last season and you look up, you're like, oh my God, the Jets won seven games. You know, like it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. You know, I think New England is going to struggle. I think their draft is very much for 2021. You know, and preparing that team for a good quarterback eventually. And when you look at Buffalo, I think they have Chicago, Jacksonville, all the teams have popped up for a year and struggled under poor quarterback play. I think they have them written all over them. So who's going to be the beneficiary? I think Miami, it depends upon how much Tua plays, how much Fitzpatrick plays, but you look at them, they have Devonte Parker at wide receiver. You know, now they have Matt Burrida who's a pretty solid running back. They've done a little bit to short the offensive line and the defense looks very Patriots-like in many ways. You know, so I think over's the only play. Minus 120 is a little bit of a price to pay. And usually you want to be on unders in this market, but this is kind of a fun one to root for. Yeah, the Dolphins were fun. They emphasized players who improved the passing offense and improved the passing defense. Pretty fun approach for them for sure. Let's talk about the Patriots who you alluded to there. Right now it looks like it's going to be Jared Stitton starting week one. Can Newton could still go there? Maybe Eddie Dalton, but the cap issues are legitimate with the Patriots right now. Let's say Stitton does start week one. What would be your outlook for the Patriots? Their win total is nine right now with minus 120 on the over. I mean, to me, I don't think you can hang a nine. I mean, you can't hang a nine in this league with guys like Bordles in 2018 or Trubisky in 2019 or, you know, even Josh. I mean, Josh Allen is, I mean, even getting that kind of respect, although if you factor in the juice, it's pretty close. So, you know, I can't imagine doing anything under, other than under is the play here for New England. I mean, with a historically good quarterback and, you know, a pretty good offensive line, they struggled to move the football in the second half of last season because guys like Mohamed Sunoo couldn't get it done. Guys like Nikhil Harry couldn't get it done. And it's still unclear. They did draft two tight ends, but it's unclear, you know, if any of those guys are going to work out, the running back position aside from James White is sketchy as well. So I just don't think they can move the football. And you look at that division, the Jets defense last season was underrated, but pretty good. Bill's defense, we all know that they're a solid squad. And as you just said, the Miami Dolphins have been, you know, in position, you know, to make their passing game defense better, you know, the last two seasons after being one of the worst in football. So it's going to be hard for them to move the football. And as good as I think their defense might be, I just can't see just a defense-only team having a winning record, let alone 10 wins. What was your evaluation of Jared Sedum coming out? He was an interesting guy because he had transferred mid-career and his numbers at Auburn really bad, but it's hard to, you know, suss out what is him versus what is the offense. What was PFS evaluation of Sedum last year? Yeah, he was certainly a late round pick, you know, worse, you know, sort of, I would say like a little bit below, something like Anthony Gordon, you know, six and a half yards for pass attempt, you know, that 58%, so not a good quarterback, you know, for the modern day NFL, which might be exactly what they want if they're going to try to get a quarterback like Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence come 2021. It's not a rosy outlook. And if they want to win this year, they probably have to go with a different option of the QB position. Interesting. Eric, do you see any other wind totals at Fandall Sportsbook that stand out to you? Yeah, I do. And, you know, to you guys' point about the cheese, I like unders that pay out more than the bet. So, you know, Buffalo, for example, at eight and a half to plus 138 or 135 currently, you know, I like that one just because again, when you're looking at wind totals, the NFL, it's skew left, you know, because for one, you add up the totals and they're all more than 256. And then when you, and the number of bad things that can happen to a football team, football teams other than quarterback are extremely antifragile. So, you know, Buffalo loses a couple of those great players in their secondary to injury. They lose some offensive line player. The offensive line gets worse at a position. All those hurt you more than the fortification of those things benefit you. And then when you look at quarterback, you know, Josh Allen simply is not good enough, I think, to lead a consistently winning football team last season he led the NFL in percentage of drop-backs that were negatively graded by us. So, to me, that under, even though, you know, I thought it would open a little higher, maybe nine and a half at eight and a half plus money. I think it's worth, you know, I think it's worth it. The other team, which I talked about earlier here, I like the Bengals over five and a half at minus 110. It's the best division in football, not named the NSC South. But, you know, there's a lot of things that can go wrong with the teams above them. Cleveland, we saw how, you know, how bad they can be when things go poorly. Pittsburgh, obviously, like great defense a season ago, does that regress? And is that, is Big Ben coming back enough to deal with that reversion to the mean? And then Baltimore, I think, you know, there's only one way that they can go unfortunately, which is, I think, to take a step back. You know, five and a half, it's really hard for a projection model to spit out a number lower than six when you simulate a season a few hundred times. Yeah, we had talked about the Bengals over as well. I think that that one's interesting because it's not just getting Joe Burrow. Because like you said, like, Burrow's upgrade over the Andy Dalton, Ryan Finlay thing is like not that much, but you add in Jonah Williams, you add in the free agency things they did on the defense side of the ball, get AJ Greenback healthy. That's pretty legit, especially when you're getting, you know, you're not paying a whole lot to get to six wins, essentially. Well, and they're a, you know, they went from being very fragile defensively to having a little bit of antipragility when you look at, you know, Trey Waynes, Mackenzie Alexander, William Jackson, the third is already a pretty good cornerback. And then they drafted three linebackers in the draft and, you know, in the front, you know, the front floor, you know, Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap are a pretty good pair of defensive linemen. So they can go from being a very terrible defense to at least an okay defense. And as you said, AJ Green, I think, is one of the most underrated players of his generation. He comes back, Tyler Boyd, you know, then they got Audentate and John Rosta to fit in there. If the offensive line can protect Burrow even a little bit, I think that the team will be, you know, not great, but like six, six wins is all you're asking for here. Yeah, absolutely. Six wins is not a whole lot to ask. Yeah, Eric, before we let you go, I mean, I believe you've made the smart choice of, you know, unders on high win totals and overs on low win totals, that regression to the mean that we know is just part of the NFL. What would it take you to kind of go against that? What would you have to see? Well, so here's one and I'll give you, so it's not exactly the lowest win total in the world, but I think it's worth an under play and that's the Las Vegas Raiders. So they're at seven and a half. You gotta pay a little bit. You gotta pay minus one 15 there. But when you look at the Raiders this season ago, all of their seven wins were by one score or less. So if you do some sort of like rule of, you know, they're kind of a three, four win team if you actually look at that, you know, ish, right? And so everybody, every person who just looks at the win totals from a season ago is gonna look at the Raiders and say, oh, they won seven games. I just need them to improve a little bit. Drew Lock might suck. Chargers are starting a rookie quarterback. The Chiefs are gonna regress. Let's go over this one. And I think when you look at changing cities, uncertainties surrounding the quarterback position, anytime, you know, you bring in a veteran to challenge the starter, it says a lot about the starter and then, you know, just simply like, you know, what they've done with their draft picks or what they haven't done with their draft picks over the last, you know, two years. To me, that's one where it's an example of, I'm hardly ever gonna go under a four and a half, but under a seven and a half is also tricky, but this one I particularly like. And that's interesting too, because like the big flaw with the Raiders is their defense. The only defensive player they picked in the first round is Damon Arnett, who didn't necessarily have like the highest grade. So I think that one makes a lot of sense too. Yeah, he was a 23 year old player at Ohio State and was just average, right? When he loses those advantages in the pros, you never know. Yeah, we gotta remember the Raiders were, I think a win total of six last year. So moving up a win and a half performance probably doesn't dictate that they deserve that. Absolutely. Well, that's Dr. Eric Eager. Eric, I wanna thank you once again for swinging on by and talking about the NFL draft with us. Hopefully you can find some things to occupy the time until hopefully we get NFL starting on time. We appreciate it and talk to you again soon. Covering the future. One big thank you once again to Dr. Eric Eager for swinging by and breaking all that down. Find him on Twitter at pff underscore Eric and get his thoughts on the NFL, NFL draft and so much more over at Pro Football Focus. Ned, I think that you asked Eric a really interesting question that I also wanted to spin back to you and get your thoughts on this. You asked him what it would take to get you to bet against the mean, betting down, betting towards eight. What do you need to see personally in order to bet a team either under a low total or above a high total? Yeah, I mean, I think there needs to be something like something extraordinary, right? Like, I mean, usually if you have a strong quarterback, you know, maybe you want to go over, like maybe Seattle nine wins last year was something that I kind of hemmed and hollered about. But obviously at Russell Wilson, he had a great year, maybe a situation like that can make you go over something really bad. You know, a team's going to potentially tank for the first pick, you know, which we kind of thought about Miami last year, which didn't really work out. But I mean, I think it's a rare situation where I really feel good about, you know, going under a six wins or over a 10. Cause I think when you look back on those seasons, those teams probably have some fortunate bounces or fortune in terms of injuries that help them get to that point. So I think you just want to stay away from those. I'm going to go slightly deviated from that with my cover in the future, but I want to hear your cover in the future first. One thing you've been doing is looking at, you know, power rankings based on wind totals. And we talked with Eric about how like things don't change. All there are things shouldn't change all that much based on what the draft does. But as we know, public sentiment changes around the draft, which can lead to changes in betting lines. So what have you seen change since the draft went down last week? Yeah, well, I mean, the biggest movers were three teams that went up. The biggest was Tampa Bay. So there's still a nine and a half wins, but the prices went from minus 105 to minus 135. You know, part of that might've been getting Tristan Worfz at the 15th pick. He was one of the, he was the highest rated offensive tackle and offensive linemen in general. When you look at the data over at grinding the mocks where Benjamin Robinson combines a lot of mock drafts. It was actually supposed to be about the fifth pick, ended up being fifth pick overall, ended up being the fourth offensive lineman there. So the public definitely liked Tampa Bay there. I'm a little hesitant about it. I think Worfz probably is gonna be a good lineman in the long run, but when you talk so much about athleticism coming out, I think that might hurt him, you know, trying to play as a rookie against, you know, guys who, you know, edge rushers that will be able to use their athleticism against him. So anyways, to give you an idea of that change in price, their rating moved about three quarters of a point. Okay, so, and this is taken from win totals at Fandall Sports Book and then backing out a rating for each team. And then the rating is just an expected margin of victory on a neutral side against an average NFL team. So the next biggest move was actually Minnesota. So they're at eight and a half wins. Their price went from minus 30 to minus 150. Markets seemed to like picking up Justin Jefferson. The wide receiver from LSU is a replacement for Stefan Diggs. And then also they drafted three cornerbacks in the next couple of rounds. Cornerback is probably the position with the least supply in the NFL. So it's always good to take extra chances there. So, you know, and they took a couple of big 10 prospects like Kenny Willakas, the defensive end out in Michigan State and Nate Stanley as well. So they were the second biggest mover. And then the third biggest mover was actually Detroit. So still at six and a half wins, but went from minus 135 to minus 150. I guess the markets like that they got Jeffrey Okuda. So again, the cornerback top rated guy in the class. Also spent a lot of picks on the offensive and defensive line later in the draft. So, and then, you know, we've talked a lot about Green Bay. You know, the markets didn't move too much. It was minus 105 on the over for nine wins before. It's plus 100 now. So not a ton of reaction to not helping Aaron Rogers out with a wide receiver. And I think that's interesting too, because we talk about, I mean, I think that I'm partially in like a bubble on the people I follow on Twitter and what they talk about. And they talk about the Packers and their bad draft, but they also talk a lot about the Denver Broncos and their good draft. Because I think that what they did was, you know, one thing Eric talked about is how there aren't a lot of quarterbacks who are independent of their surrounding. And what you want to do when you have a quarterback who is in that blob in the middle is improve their surroundings. And Denver, we don't know where Drulak is on that spectrum. He could be someone who is irreparable, doesn't matter how good a situation is, or he could be in that blob. But what they did was they kind of ensured he would be good if he were in that blob, where he could be good with a good situation. By adding Jerry, Judy, and KJ, Hamler. So I guess I kind of expected Denver to be a team that might shift from an odds perspective, but it sounds like they didn't. They're a seven and a half and minus one 10 on the over right now. Yeah, I'm pretty sure that didn't move. Yeah. So we'll see. I mean, it's only been a couple of days, maybe a week from now that we'll have changed. Yeah, the Vikings won't as interesting too, because like they basically took the mindset of, we're gonna get these picks wrong because we have less information and they value analytics testing like more than or athletic testing more than any other team. So they basically said, we're gonna throw as much at the wall as we can and see what sticks. Because at one point I think they had 17 picks for this draft, which is just absurd. They got like four picks from the Saints for a pick in the third round. And like that's what you should do. I don't know if it'd be enough to get me to change my thoughts in the wind total, but like from an actual like NFL perspective, like that was a good strategy. I just don't think it would necessarily get me to bet the over on them. Yeah, for sure. I mean, it is usually a good idea to trade down to give yourself more shots at the draft. Baltimore has been a team that has done that over the course of years and they've built up a lot of talent on that team. So yeah, to see Minnesota do that is definitely the right move. And to use those picks to address positions like cornerback where the supply is very low is definitely a good idea. And they needed someone to help replace Stefan Diggs, which is tough to do. You can't really replace Stefan Diggs, but Justin Jefferson at least helps bandage the loss of Stefan Diggs as much as you can. So improve the passing game, improve the past defense and things will generally go pretty well for you. For my cover in the future, I wanna talk about the Cleveland Browns because they're a team that burned a lot of people last year from a betting perspective. They got a ton of buzz. Their odds got shorter and shorter and they got shorter than they should have. But I think they've had a good off season again and maybe a bit of a lower key off season and the buzz has been a bit more muted here. And right now the wind total for the Browns at Fandall Sportsbook is eight and a half. So I am saying to go over, however you get plus 115 on the over, which makes it a little bit of different discussion, hopefully not as egregious to go over on a wind total over eight. But I do like that quite a bit because the off season gains the Browns have had have been pretty big because they addressed both tackle positions which should allow Baker Mayfield extra time in the pocket, improve the passing game and that's a big thing. It also helps him be a bit more volatile in the positive sense because as the year went along last year, Baker Mayfield, his average depth of target went down because they had to get rid of the ball super quickly to avoid the pitfalls with an offensive line. And now he should be able to actually do legitimate drop backs and do that Kevin Stefanski offense where you do play action, bomb it deep, see what happens. They also added Austin Hooper, which should give him another weapon there that is in addition to Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry getting healthier and that's good for the offense. But on defense, I think we're also overlooking the re-addition of Miles Garrett because their defense took a major hit when he got suspended. If you look at the quant edge, when Miles Garrett was on the field, opposing teams averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt and when Miles Garrett was off, it was 8.4. So a full yard difference when Miles Garrett was out. Their sack rate also decreased to 5.1% from 8.5%. So a major deviation there and Garrett will be back for this full season. They also added Grant Delpit in the second round. I think he's super interesting. He was banged up this year at LSU and if he can return to his 2018 form, that could be like a home run level pick. So I would expect this number to rise a bit as the regular schedule off season hype train for the Browns takes off, but I'd like to buy now on them the division as Eric said is pretty tough, but Joe Burrow is a rookie, Big Ben is an injury risk. So getting plus 115 on over eight and a half is enough for me to buy in. Ed, what are your thoughts in general on the Browns heading into 2020? Yeah, I mean, I need to see Baker Mayfield have a little bit better decision making in the pocket. Clearly having a little bit help on the offensive line is gonna help. You know, are they just gonna run the ball all the time? Given it's advanced teams, yeah, hopefully not. So those are some questions that I have. Heading into last season, we talked with Teddy Covers about how they had the most talented roster in the entire NFL. A lot of those pieces are still there. I think heading into last season, we needed to talk about the best roster in the NFL minus the quarterback position. Cause I think there were still some questions about Baker and those questions are still there heading into the season. So yeah, definitely a lot of talent. You know, I think I definitely saw it on the side of over given, you know, the talent they have in the roster and a win total of eight and a half, but still need to finish my analysis on that to really want to like that. Yeah, the two teams that we talked about Teddy is having the most talent were the Browns and the Eagles and like both teams like had this wild, wild season. But I think that both are in position to rebound and Eric was talking about how much he liked the Eagles. I'd agree. I think that they're very interesting just because they have a very smart front office and I'm inclined to trust smart front offices. And I do value like the thought of a floor because if you're looking at paths to an under for Eagles one of them is Carson Wentz getting hurt. And I think it's less definitive that they hit the under now, but Jalen hurts. You actually used to be an Eagles fans. What were your thoughts on that pick in the second round? Yeah, a lot of thoughts. I mean, I have a lot of questions about hurts as a thrower as I don't, I don't know if he can do it on the NFL level. We talked a lot on this show about how Lincoln Riley just ran him more towards the end of the season when the defenses got better. And I think that's an indication that the coach knows that he's not going to be able to throw it against better secondaries. That just gets a lot harder in the NFL. But, you know, is he an asset? Sure, you know, could you have a goal line package with him using his running ability, his throwing ability? For sure, is he going to be a good backup quarterback? Probably. It doesn't give me a ton of confidence. I want to say, you know, like it doesn't, you know, I mean, you definitely want Wentz as a starter. Like, you know, I think my first thought when they made that pick was like, well, I mean, Wentz has nothing to worry about, right? I mean, there's no way this guy's going to take his job. But when you think about it in terms of, you know, having the backup, you know, it makes sense. Like I think it was a good pick, but, you know, I don't see Jaylen Hertz being anything more than a backup quarterback in the NFL. I think that that's kind of where I'm at too, because it's not because of the throwing, which I have my concerns about throwing too, but it's more about like pocket presence. He had the longest time to throw in the entire nation last year in the Florida pro football focus. And he had the highest sack rates of any quarterback in the top end of this class by a pretty wide margin. Joe Burrow was second, actually, which is interesting given the offensive line he'll be playing with. But I think that that could be a concern. But if you get, like the way that we phrased it on the live stream was Jaylen Hertz can be a backup plus. He can be a backup and potentially give you additional stuff outside of that, like if they do use him in a Taysom Hill type role. So I understood it. I actually, I liked it, even though I don't expect him to be a necessarily a starter or even like a good starter in the NFL. So interesting, interesting selection for sure. But it's the one that got Philly Twitter all riled up. Quarantine corner for this weekend. I think this is like week seven or something. It's been a long time. What is keeping you occupied in this weird age we're in right now? So I've been obsessed with dummy. It's a show on Quibi. Do you know what Quibi is? We should probably start there. I heard of Quibi, but I've had no desire to check it out. So you have to sell me on this. Oh, interesting. So they're kind of evil. It's kind of like Netflix, but only on your phone. And everything's limited to 10 minutes. Okay. And when they get you hooked on a show, like I've been hooked on dummy, like they only release these shows on weekdays. So not that we have enough things distracting us from our workday, but they need to just pile on. But with that said, dummy is about a girl who starts becoming friends with her boyfriend, sex doll. And I love that reaction. That was kind of why I started watching it. And it's seriously one of the funniest things I have seen. And it's very meta. And so she's dating a guy who is older and a very successful writer. And she's trying to be a successful writer and she starts hanging out with his sex doll. And it's hilarious. So I would actually, I don't know. I'm kind of in my little bubble here. Like I just started watching this and I just, I can't do it when I can't laugh out loud. Like I started to stop watching the shows. I still haven't got my wife to like watch it to tell me whether. So I might be completely crazy. Sure. If you all go out there and like watch dummy and think it sucks, definitely let me know. I don't know if I'm crazy, but I just thought it was one of the most hilarious things I've seen in a while. That is a wild concept. And I want to be in the room when it was pitched. Like, hey, I've got this idea. Let me know what you say. Buy or sell. Like what a pitch. I mean, not that I'm trying to like, I haven't really found anything else on Quibi. I like, so I'm not trying to pitch the service, but you can sign up for it. And I think, I mean, I got 90 days free. I don't know what the deal is right now, but you can certainly watch it for free. The last episode dropped this morning, so you can just binge it all, which I think will take you like an hour and a half. Yeah. Yeah, let me, seriously, if you watch it, let me know what you think. That's wild. The reason I was so hesitant is because I am admittedly quite lazy. And the idea of having to hold my phone for 10 minutes, like physically hold my phone at an angle and watch a video for 10 minutes is like daunting. I have trouble watching two minute videos on my phone because A, lack of attention. B, I can't check Twitter while I'm watching it. And C, I'd rather just like, I'd rather just watch it on my laptop. So like, I think I am an abnormal media consumer because I watch so little stuff on my phone. And I think like, that's kind of like the whole pitch of Quibi is like, I might be the furthest thing from their like target market you could possibly get because I hate watching things on my phone. It's not like the little screen. I'm just superbly lazy and want to check Twitter while I'm watching it. Yeah, well, and well, distracted, I would say would be that point. But it's actually kind of frustrating because you can't stream it on your laptop, which is just dumb. Cause sometimes I want to sit back and just relax and I'm in front of a bigger screen and you can't. Right. So that's frustrating, but that hasn't stopped me from like, waking up in the morning and checking the latest episode of dummy. All right, so let's check out dummy on Quibi to get all that cause it sounds interesting. I don't know if I can necessarily get into Quibi just yet, but you might have sold me with that. That is all that we have for today here on Covering the Spread. Big thank you once again to Dr. Eric Eager for swinging by and breaking down the NFL Draft. Make sure you check out Eric on Twitter at pff underscore Eric and go to pff.com for all of his work there. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer for working the video side of things here today. Thank you, Cal, as always. If you have questions for Ed, make sure you find him at the power rank on Twitter, thepowerrank.com as well. And the football analytics show is Ed's podcast. I am at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. And you can also follow the Fandral Podcast Network at Fandral Podcast. We'll be back again next week to break down more sports as they start to trickle back into our consciousness and we'll break those down with you and walk you through all the avenues you have to finally give in to that betting itch. This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandral Podcast Network.