 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan to a podcast network and Number fire comm as we are getting you said for the week ahead and it is a juicy week for football We got college football semi-finals and NFL week 17 all the dock and we're gonna break it all down Let's know our favorite bets for this week My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power rank comm Ed happy holidays. How you doing today? I'm doing great Yeah, we got a big time week of football with we 17 in the NFL some college football playoff games So, you know, we almost can't not do a show this week, right? Right, I mean like we'd all love to have you know a week off However, it's kind of hard to do that when we got Clemson versus Ohio State and LSU against Oklahoma coming up here And I have been excited for the college football playoff every year, but I think specifically the Clemson, Ohio State game just stands out to me as being One of the games that's got me most excited in the last several years for college football And it projects to be a close game to amazing defenses to very good offenses And I feel like I don't know if this is just like you know recency bias But I don't remember being this excited about a semi-final game in years past and it's not because I just like them I just think this one seems to be extra special kind of Yeah, for sure. I mean, it's gonna be a great game. We'll see that when I tell you what my numbers say I think just kind of looking at it. There's pretty some interesting story lines in this one as well So, yeah, I'm definitely excited about it. Certainly most more so than the other semi-final game Yeah, that one doesn't look quite as tasty We're gonna break both those down here in just a bit and we'll also go through as mentioned a couple of weeks 17 NFL games Combining things into one podcast for this week If you want more covering the spread that we did have a full bowl preview last week Breaking down what Ed's numbers like for this bowl season a couple of betting tips as well for bowls in general To find that just search for covering the spread on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio Wherever you get your podcast you can find covering the spread and while you're there We would appreciate it very much if you would leave a rating and review because those do help us out a ton Bowl preview is last week and we'll get back at it next week as well talking about More NFL games for the first round of the playoffs and you can subscribe and get that right as it's post This will be the only podcast for this week So just one kind of like Thanksgiving week will bang out both college football and the NFL all at once and get back With you next week before we take a look at this week's action though We got to go back to last week We had Edward e-gross on to talk about week 16 of the NFL Edward did really well So we'll go through what Edward had and talk about a couple of bowls that were relevant to Ed's covering the future last week with interim college coaches in bowl games Covering the past All right as mentioned last week we had Edward e-gross on covering the spread for week 16 of the NFL Follow Edward on Twitter at Ed with sports and as mentioned Edward did pretty well He had the over on Bill's Patriots at 36 and a half points and that game went over And I know there was a lot of money at the end of that game Coming in on the over so Edward definitely in line with consensus on that one Edward also had the Eagles Cowboys game He had a couple of bets there He had the Cowboys minus one and a half and obviously that one went awry a little bit the Eagles wound up covering there But he also had the under on 46 and a half that one hit pretty easily So one for one or one for two in the Cowboys Eagles game in addition to the Patriots Bill's game The other one that Edward had was he wanted to buy up the total for Saints Titans It was 50 and a half originally he wanted to buy up to 55 and a half so getting some really good juice there And it wound up at 66 points. So good juice that one hits awesome hit there by Edward So three and one so far, but we still have one more bet on the line. He's that we're actually going head to head So Edward was awesome last week I kind of want that hot streak to come to an end because I had the Packers plus five and a half He has a Vikings minus five and a half In what I think is a fascinating game I got a little bit of assistance there because the Rams lost on Saturday night, which means the Vikings are locked into playoffs now It's not necessarily going to mean that they just pack it in because they could still win the NSC north and obviously you want that that That home game, but it doesn't hurt to have a little bit less motivation on the Viking side So we'll see how that one goes out tonight We'll recap that next week on the podcast as well and in covering the future last week You talked about college football coaches interim coaches, you know and how they do in bowl games You were talking about how Bill Connolly had done this study and you had done a study previously That I just provided numbers But you provided the numbers I did integral part in it and he would not be able to do the study without your numbers So and you mentioned that we should not lower expectations for teams when they have interim coaches We've seen a couple of games so far and it seems like your theory is playing out so far Yeah, I mean all this stuff is based on small sample size and we're gonna talk about, you know Absolutely huge sample size of two games But you saw I have stayed do what they were supposed to do kind of got off to a rough start My numbers had them by but they ended up winning by 14 markets were at 17. My numbers had them at 13 So they did what they were supposed to do very good team excellent defense We saw on that field on Saturday night And then Florida Atlantic they also had an interim coach with with Lane heading over to Ole Miss and They pulled off the upset, you know, they were a seven point dog in that game SMU's had a brilliant season We talked about them a bunch this year with the, you know, how they've mastered the transfer portal And you never expect much out of a conference USA team I never expect that much out of a conference USA team in these games part of part of the schedule adjustments but They they got the win outright. So, you know kudos to them, you know, it's been interesting like they were really good What two years ago really a little bit of a disappointment last year and now back to pretty solid conference USA team conference USA champs Yeah, that game I didn't get to see a lot of that I don't remember what what I was doing. We were doing something but I came back and the game was on and I saw the score and I thought it was like an old game because SMU is a seven point favorite in that game And I was like, this is weird. Why is FAU up by like two scores and then it just kept on going Yeah, and it was kind of wild how that all played out. What did you never say about that one again? I mean, I think it was on FAU side. Let me check. I mean, I had SMU by two and a half three Yeah, so Definitely worth seven there. So kudos to your numbers, but that game was honestly just kind of wild So definitely playing out so far. So keep that in mind in general You don't need to adjust for interim coaches filling in and you know maybe the the small sample numbers that that you and Bill have had of Teams getting a slight boost from having an interim coach. Maybe that wasn't as as wild as we thought it was So definitely playing out well so far Let's see how that goes is because there are a couple ones still in the bucket. There's a bowl season 2 So be sure to keep that in mind as well If you want to get in on the action Maybe bet on a couple of the scenes with interim coaches Check out the Fandall sportsbook and place your first bed today If you lose Fandall will give you a refund of to five hundred dollars in psych credit visit sportsbook dot Fandall Dot com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler, let's take a look now at these college football semifinals in covering the present breakdown What Ed's numbers are saying there what I'm thinking with those games and then take a look at NFL week 17 as well Covering the present All right, let's dive in here to the college football semifinals starting off with Oklahoma versus LSU LSU a 13 and a half point favorite here in the total of 76 over at Fandall Sportsbook and Ed I want to talk about both the spread and the total in this game starting off with the total because it is quite high Justifiably so we know both offenses can definitely be overpowering and in the defenses Are not the strengths of either team So is that enough to make you like the over here or is it high enough to compensate for how good these two offenses are? Yeah, I mean, I've kind of been ignoring my numbers on Oklahoma totals all year. They've been kind of stratoscopically Stratostrifically high. Yeah, so yeah, I mean, I think 76 is about right. I mean You know, Oklahoma's defense has been a lot better than last year. They're top 20 when I look at adjusted success rate LSU's defense really took a surge actually towards the end of the year. They had that awful game against Ole Miss where Right, they were they were terrible and every which way imaginable But it's been much better since then. I think they're up in the top 15 now when I look at success rate adjusted for who you've played So I mean, I don't I think this market value is pretty fair. Yeah, I'm not excited about either side Oh, and I think go ahead. Well, and we do need I mean, I think this this means more for the side But you know, Oklahoma's offense has really changed over the course of the year. We've talked about this on the show already And Jaylen Hertz has been running the ball a lot more So Lincoln Riley has said I think our best chance of moving the ball against big 12 defenses and some of the better ones is To run Jaylen Hertz. So the first eight games he ran about 13 times a game and these numbers are including sacks but but the last five games has been 23 times a game and I you know, and his efficiency hasn't been great there He's a good runner, but like teams are starting to expect this He wasn't able to do it on defense like Baylor very strong unit very physical unit so I Don't think it's the same explosive offense that we kind of saw at the beginning of the year They're clearly not trying to get the ball field to their very talented receivers So that that's another reason why I don't really trust my numbers yeah, I Think we gotta trust the markets on this one And I think the one thing too with the total is if it's gonna get to 76 points You're kind of counting on that game being tight the entire way I think the other the other way that this total could be a bit fragile is if Oklahoma slows things down you know Lincoln Riley is a smart guy and I think he recognizes that his team is not on par with LSU entering this game and When that situation you want to increase the variance you want to slow things down All right limit the possessions limit the time that Joe Burrow is facing an improved defense but still not an elite defense by any means and I could see them, you know doing exactly what you said running what you own hurts and slowing things down So I think that's one path of this game hitting the under the other path is if LSU just pulls away right and They can force Oklahoma out of their game. So I think there are two separate paths to an under here And I actually think that that pushes me towards of all the numbers in this game I think the under is the one that is most attractive. I understand why The over is interesting because I agree neither defense is like great like they're both fine But I don't think either is great. So from a defensive perspective sure 76 makes sense But I think there are two separate paths this game going under specifically if Oklahoma slows things down And if LSU pulls that ahead, which could very well happen because I'm not sure Oklahoma The offense as it's currently constructed is built to play from behind. I know that Baylor game that first Baylor game They did play from behind and they did make up a lot of ground quickly But I think I kind of like the under here and you kind of alluded to this said But let's talk about the spread here 13 and a half points. It's a pretty big number But Oklahoma has just consistently underperformed on its numbers all year and their numbers have gotten steadily worse As season has gone along. So what are your thoughts on the spread here at 13 and a half? So what I first was thinking about this name a game I kind of you know, I mean my number is six and a half With LSU what has it? That's what my numbers have I kind of thought the market would come out at like eight or nine And then you know, I think it was it was easily to I thought the play was LSU because of these right It was changing in Oklahoma's offense, but then it started even higher than that I think it was at 11 and then I was like, yeah, and now it's all the way up to almost two touchdowns, right? And so now it almost has me thinking. Oh, well, maybe maybe maybe the idea is to go the other way on this Again, I mean, I think Lincoln Raleigh is a smart dude. I think he may slow this down try to you know, slow down Joe Burrow Keep the number of possessions down in this game in order and you know, if the offense can do If the offense can score like we know Lincoln Raleigh's offenses can score that they, you know LSU is gonna make it hard to cover almost two touchdowns in this game. So I kind of don't know what to think about this It's been, you know It's one that I think there's a difficulty in using numbers to figure out where this line should be and that's that's partially be just the changing nature of Oklahoma's offense and I actually just looked LSU's defense is up to fifth in my justice success rate That was not the case after that Ole Miss game. They were awful in that Ole Miss game so over the last few games it has really moved up and Yeah, it's a pretty you know LSU is the top-ranked team in my numbers in the rankings that I look at to make these predictions Ohio State and Clemson are not very far behind And we'll talk about that, you know when we talk about the next game But there's a drop-off to Alabama at fourth and then there's a real drop-off to Oklahoma after that so expect LSU take care of business here and This magical season for them continues. Yeah, I think if I had to pick a side here, I'd go with Oklahoma For the reasons you mentioned because I do think I Would if I were Lincoln or Lincoln Raleigh, I would slow it down Which would lend itself both towards betting Oklahoma plus 13 and a half and the under at 76 points and I Wouldn't be shocked if that's how things play out like you never want to assume the way a coach is gonna play things because that can Lead to a lot of bad assumptions, but I think in this sense in this case It's kind of hard not to think that way if you're Lincoln Raleigh So I would prefer to just go at the under personally, but if I had to go with a side I think that Oklahoma plus 13 and a half even if they're not going to win like like 10 10 points like 10 point game it might not actually be that close of a game But they could still cover Despite it not being that close of a game So I think that's that's where I'd lean but my my biggest inclination is with the under here Any final thoughts for you on this one ed before we move on to the second set me final Yeah, maybe you know, it's interesting to see if Joe Burrow can continue what he's done I mean, obviously we have a pretty big 13 game sample. Yeah, he's been great on the Heisman Obviously have questions about Oklahoma's defense You know pretty good unit top 25 unit as they are 21st when I look at adjusted success rate When I think about this game when I watch these two teams play It seems like LSU's offense should have a big advantage. So we'll see if that holds Yeah, we'll see should be a fun game But I think this one's more fun from a betting perspective than a real-world perspective Whereas the second semi-final is very exciting in both departments We got Clemson versus Ohio State Clemson right now a fan of dual sports book a two-point favorite The total here is 63 points and whereas this the other game is Very good offenses against good defense very good defenses. This one's elite defenses We have arguably two of the top defenses in the nation. So how do you see this game playing out? Do you expect a shootout or do the defenses help this one skew towards the under here? Yeah, I mean I see a really close game I don't necessarily see a shootout my numbers have the total at 65 and a half pretty close to where the market is Ohio State is a half point favorite by my numbers. So going against what the markets are saying at this point I had Chris Andrews who runs the South Point Sports book on my show And he said his numbers like Ohio State as well. He kind of knew that money was gonna be coming in on Clemson So so he actually opened with Clemson as a favorite in this game So I you know, I would lean towards Ohio State a little bit when you look these are two great teams When you look at my adjusted success rate Ohio State's fifth on offense and six on defense just excellent numbers Clemson is 15th on offense seventh on defense and I really don't think they're the 15th I think they're better than 15th best offense in the nation when you consider the talent They have when you consider just the skills of Trevor Lawrence Who's clearly shown that he can he can get it done against the best defenses? So the one thing I will say about this Ohio State team It was truly impressive how they were able to come out in the second half against both Michigan and in Ohio State and Excuse me, Michigan and Wisconsin Michigan, Wisconsin are two very good football teams. Yeah, and they just obliterated them in the second half I do not know what they're doing. I don't know if it's scheme and it doesn't really seem like scheme It seems like they're just playing better football So and you know to do it against very good football teams in Wisconsin, Wisconsin and Michigan is one thing You know, can they do it against Clemson? I don't know. So so that's what I'm kind of looking to see here Whatever it is Ohio State's doing Can they continue it when the competition takes a significant leap up? And I think the one thing that worries me from an Ohio State perspective is you can't really have hiccups against Clemson Like Wisconsin's offense isn't going to put up 40 or whatever They're not going to you know, bury you if you have a bad half whereas Clemson could and Seeing this Ohio State offense at least sputter. I wouldn't say struggle. They've sputtered a bit I think the Penn State game was a little bit of that too Then the Wisconsin game when they faced good defenses The offense didn't quite hum as well. Yeah, they did adjust in the second half and get a lot better there but I think I Have some reservations about them against this specific defense given that this defense knows how to game plan for Or you know the best offense in the country because I've been here so many times I think that a lack of faith or not a lack of faith a Some some question marks about the Ohio State offense would push me towards the under however Because this game projects to be so close I am very hesitant to go with the under because it could be one of those where you see a lot of rapid fire Action and right that pushes me away. So while I have Some questions around the Ohio State offense against this specific defense It's not know for I can bet the under and I also don't have a great read on the spread here So personally, I think I think both these lines are good I don't have a great read on how this game is going to play out Which is a testament to how good both these teams are but yeah I think that if I have one question mark around this game is it's will Ohio State Be able to overcome any sputtering they have against such a good defense Yeah, for sure. I mean Clemson's defense is great Brenda brand venables gets a done every single season no matter who he loses to the NFL this year is no exception So yeah, but I mean we've seen Ohio State's offense. I mean the fields has been fantastic. I mean, he's got it He's got some kind of knee injury I don't know what it is, but I mean he came out of the Michigan game for a player to he came back with a brace Through a ridiculous touchdown pass after that so There's plenty of explosive players on Ohio State's on for Ohio State on offense The interior right Ryan Davis said the interior their line is one of the best in the country And you can't argue with that with the way they control the line of scrimmage against Michigan And and against and against Wisconsin in the second half So I do have faith in the Ohio State's offense to get it done against Clemson Is it enough faith for you to bet Ohio State because you mentioned that your numbers do like them by a bit But it's not it's not a huge one. Would you actually go with them or I mean a big inefficient line for you I'm leaving that way. I haven't trigger on it Probably look I mean a lot of state had a ton of guys hurt So I want to look at the injury report before I finally pull the trigger Chris Andrews did like being on the side of Ohio State In this game. So that that's the bookmakers perspective. Yeah And one that's been and a bookmaker has been doing it for a long time So, right, I do think Ohio State's the right side with the market at Clemson minus two Yeah, all right any final thoughts on this game before we move on to NFL No, I think it should be a great one. Like you said probably one of the more exciting Semi-final games. I don't think it's going to be anything like the blowout situation that happened last time These two teams met in the college football playoff. Don't let that cloud your thinking And it should be a great game as we saw with Notre Dame earlier this year Those are different teams and it should not impact the way you view teams in 2019 Let's move on to the Titans at the Texans as we kick off NFL week 17 And this game is one that does have something on the line in a way for both teams because of Titans If they win this game, they are automatically in the playoffs. They don't worry about anything else As far as how things break elsewhere Houston could in theory Get up to be the three seed and Bill O'Brien said Monday that he is going to play the starters. However It's obviously a motivation gap here. Uh, the the spread has shifted It is now the Titans minus five and a half. It was four and a half So clearly some money coming in on Tennessee Total is down to 45 and a half and is is the motivation gap in these two teams enough For you to stay away Aside towards the Titans. What are you thinking here? I mean, is it really a motivation gap? I mean, I feel like if this were not a division game You can make that argument a little bit But it's a division game, right? And like yeah, you hate your division rivals at least I know they do in the nfc east so I don't know like is there really a motivation gap here You know, but like, you know, these teams just played a couple weeks ago Uh, I think if you're Houston, uh I I think just I don't know. I mean, maybe they're banged up. Maybe they're hurt. Maybe maybe they want to rest up a little bit I just feel I I don't I don't know if I see a more as much of a motivation gap as you do. I think Uh, we'll be there to play this divisional game. Um, I guess, I mean, I guess they can send Tennessee home, right? Uh, they could they would need they would need other stuff to happen to I believe Pittsburgh Pittsburgh and oakland can still get in Oakland has like a 12 percent chance of the playoffs somehow. I don't know how but it's it's a thing like there's a way Yeah, they need like four different things to happen and I believe one of those things is having the Ravens and rg3 beat the Steelers Um, so like it's a it's a weird path But there's a path to the to the Raiders getting in And I think that one thing that makes this Very risky if you want to back the Texans is that the thing that the Texans have riding on is They could get to the three seed if the chiefs lose However, the chiefs play at one o'clock and the Texans play in the afternoon They may know By kickoff that they're locked into the four seed and I think that that does influence things to the point where I Would if I personally would not Bet Houston no matter what the only way that I could go here is potentially going the Titans way however I don't want to do that either because Derek Henry is banged up and We talk about running backs not mattering and 95 ish percent of the time that's accurate like running backs do not move the needle I think that might be different with the Titans because if you look at The Titans with Derek Henry this year Ryan Tannehill specifically when Derek Henry is on the field Out of his 11.01 yards per attempt. That's according to the quant edge It's 6.65 when Derek Henry is off the field that is Like four and a half yards per attempt And there's a lot of noise in that because if Derek Henry is not on the field It's not a high leverage situation probably they're probably not, you know, they made it be a head by quite a bit So there are there are factors that influence that however We saw a similar gap last year in the numbers for the Titans when Derek Henry was on versus off and a running back matters When he influences the ability to throw the football And I think that Derek Henry in a way does that because he's such a threat as a runner So I don't consider running backs when betting spreads ever pretty much But I think with Derek Henry specifically we may need to so when you combine The ambiguity around Derek Henry's health with the question marks about Whether the Texans may go full out here. I view this as being a stay away personally Um, what about you? Yeah, I think it's a stay away. I mean numbers wise, uh, I have Houston favored by three a little bit of oak three I think they're the better team. They're at home. Obviously if they're playing everyone I would expect them if they're playing everyone and motivated, which is what I think they'll be against the division rival I'd expect them to win this game. Um, I still have my doubts about ryan tanny hill Obviously had a great stretch, but uh, you know bet them a couple weeks ago Bet against them a couple weeks ago With the same houston team That worked out um so Yeah, I mean it's a stay away, but like if you made me take a side It would it would certainly be hueson If we were to get word for some reason that joe webb We're starting for the Texans as opposed to a j macarron, which is those are the two other quarterbacks in the roster If joe webb were to start it'd be Texans by 50 like I would love to watch joe webb play quarterback Like legitimately play quarterback again. You would not actually be Texans by 50, but like I just want to see that so a g macarron take a vacation take a rest You know Go to cobble or something hang out there Let joe webb start instead of joshan watson that we could boogie, but I think overall here this game is It's a tough one to get a read on I think there are reasons to avoid both sides Let's move on to the Steelers at the ravens We've seen some pretty big movement here throughout the day on monday when we're recording Steelers are now one point favorites and the total here is down to 39 and a half and I think that's because We're expecting to see robert kerf from the third star at this game for the ravens They're locked into the onesie. They cannot move whereas the Steelers need to win But the ravens, you know, it's it's an interesting spot here. So what do you see with this game ed with the Steelers now one point favorites? Yeah, I don't I don't I don't know what to think But I am going to tell you about one thing that I've been thinking about I haven't actually pulled the trigger on this yet Um, but with false more is really aggressive fourth down strategy I think it suggests in general maybe not against doc Hodges, but in general it suggests the over Right because they're gonna go for it on fourth and one in their own end zone And the simple act of going for it whether they make it or they don't Is going to tend to increase the score correct So, you know, they're eight and seven on the over for the season They've clearly been doing these kinds of things all year I I doubt that changes with rg3 Playing quarterback. They're they're going to continue to be aggressive Um, and this is something that you know, the numbers can't really They don't really capture your success rate and your yards playing all that stuff isn't isn't going to capture that So that's one thing that I have been thinking about Little surprised that the Steelers are A favorite. Um, it's in baltimore, right? Yeah. Yeah. So so the Steelers are a favorite with doc Hodges as their quarterback I'm pursuing just playing, uh, you know, who's been up and down to say the least That seems a little strange, but you know me baltimore has their issues on the defensive side of the ball I don't think their front seven is very good. Uh, and lemar is not playing So but 39 seems pretty low. I don't know Yeah, it was 41 and a half and moved down to 39 and a half So clearly everyone agrees with you that uh, there that I I thought initially I was like, oh, okay Under I won under 41 and a half because right But it's already moved in 39 and a half. I'm still tempted by the under there personally because It it's it's nothing to do with rg3 Rg3 I think should be fine here I agree with your aggressiveness claim because in that he came in and garbage time against the rams Through a bomb to myles boykin They were up 40 points and rg3 is chucking nukes down the sideline to myles boykin and boykin hold it in like You know like they're not going to just crawl into a shell. They're still going to run their offense So I agree. They'll be aggressive But I just don't know how the Steelers move the ball I agree with your claims about the the ravens defense, you know, they're they weren't great this year I would be shocked if jimmy smith and marcus peters played this game I I bet that they sit in that was kind of the turning point for the ravens defense this year was getting those two guys back So if they sits the defense isn't good, but we just saw this Steelers offense Faced the new york jets the new york jets outside of jamal Adams. They got jamal Adams back on sunday They're down to like their seventh string corner backs essentially like they've had injuries Across the board at cornerback and the Steelers scored 10 points. That's also a non-division game The jets were trying, you know, they had their starters out there and that does matter the ravens might not but I don't know how duck hodges moves the football because you know, they benched him for mason rudolf now mason rudolf can't go Their backup is paxton lynch So like it's devlin hodges because mason rudolf won't play because he injured his shoulder and paxton lynch is the backup I don't know how they score points their highest output from a point perspective in the past seven games is 23 points So even at 39 and a half you've got some wiggle room here So I would be interested in the ravens plus one now now that it's there I'm also very interested in the under even though it's 39 and a half points I'm guessing mark anders will sit that plays towards the under Um, I'm the ravens might not do a lot, but I can't see the Steelers offense Posting a big number what they've done in recent weeks. So I think I am on the ravens plus one I was not inclined to do it when they were favored by two and a half But I think I can do ravens plus one. I have some faith in rg3 still And I think that I want the under on 39 and a half I think that this game actually does provide some value even though there are a lot of unknowns here Yeah, for sure. Uh, I I think I you know, it's so hard to kind of quantify guys not playing Stay away from me But I I'm going to be thinking about some baltimore overs as we Continue to go through the season especially once we get into the playoffs because they haven't had their foot on the gas for a full game Like Six games this year. They've been able to just like coast which is just nuts So we'll see how that goes for sure, but I'm excited to see rg3 back in the saddle once again Let's finish up here with our final game for nfl week 17. That is the premier game of this late That is the 49ers at the seahawks right now The 49ers are a three-point favorites. The total here is 47 We might get to see marshawn lynch back for this game for the seahawks, which I did not expect to say today But the winner of this game gets the nsc west and they could be the one seed So motivation is not a question here. There are a lot of injury questions, but there's no motivation questions So we can kind of trust the numbers more here ed. What do your numbers say about this game? Well, you kind of got a factor cl's awful by week after the performance last It's very true They look pretty terrible last week. Um I don't think clowny or diggs played for the defense right clowny diggs and Shaquille griffin all sat Okay, none of them practiced. Well, I guess I think griffin practiced in limited fashion on wednesday But then sat thursday friday, so none of them were really that close to playing either And and obviously they had no motivation like they had no reason to win that game Correct because it wouldn't have it wouldn't have mattered. So Yeah, so numbers wise it says seattle should win by about a point and a half at home with the full model I think that still has a little bit of preseason prior in it. You just look at this year's data It says san francisco by one. So so I re break it down numbers wise. I think that leans towards Um, seattle, I think it's going to be a coinfold game I think it's going to look very close to what we saw the last time these two teams got together I mean, we know the stories of these teams. Seattle's Russell wilson and a terrible defense A defense that will be going to be a little bit better when when the three guys we just mentioned are actually playing Um, san francisco the past defense is great. Um, But what are they going to bring on offense? We've seen good and bad from jimmy grapolo Overall the past offense is ninth when I look at adjusted success rate. So he clearly can get it done um So, yeah, I think it plays out like last time I think this game's going to be one on a last-minute field goal. Uh, I don't really know who's kicking it I wouldn't be shocked if it were either team But if you're getting three points at seattle at home, I think that that makes sense You know based on what your numbers are saying and I think that the injuries here are impactful And I think that people the reason the 49ers are favorite by three is because people are focusing on the 40 Not or the the seahawks injuries, you know, they've got no chris karson. They've got no cg of pro size Dwayne brown their left tackle just had surgery. He's not going to play until at least the post season But the 49ers have injuries too. Uh, d ford will not be back week 17 Richard Sherman came back last week and he played uh, he was still banged up during that game But I think one that's kind of gone overlooked is west in richburg. We talked with joe fortenbaugh about this injury and I at the time had a lot of faith in the 49ers ability to overcome that injury Because they had overcome injuries to mike McGlinche and joe stanley this year. So I thought they'd be fine But the two games they played without richburg it was That falcons game that they lost and then they had the rams game where jimmy garoppolo didn't play that well And I've been in on garoppolo for half the year now. You know, I've liked him Basically since that first arizona game I started to buy in I liked what I was seeing from him I thought that he was playing well despite of not having Full health around him But the past two games have been concerning for me I think that this is the first time I've started to question garoppolo since you know early in the season And it worries me about backing the 49ers in this game. So We're talking about the seattle injuries We're not talking about the 49ers injuries and I think that's influencing the way this spread lays out right now Yeah, I mean I have the most questions about seattle's defense Had them since the beginning of the season this preseason when we talked about this team I still have them. I think clowny is great Uh, and I think digs, uh has been good according to uh people. I know that that watch more More of this team than I do But still, uh, it makes me a little queasy to to back them even plus three At all even though I might end up doing it Right, right And I think that the hesitation makes sense because they have been bad like their defense has legitimately been bad But I think that we're getting enough of Enough accountants for that in the number Where it's kind of like the Packers discussion we had last week where neither of us have been as high On the Packers is the market, but then suddenly the market accounts for it. It's like, oh, okay I guess we like the other way. Yeah, it's kind of weird. It goes back the other way. It's crazy Exactly. So I think that if I had to go somewhere here, I I would actually lean towards the over at 47 points It's gone down. Actually. It was 47 and a half. It's now down to 47 But I think with the injuries on seattle's defense and the injuries to d4 or injury to d4 on the 49er side I think that I am okay Going with the over here at 47. I wouldn't be shocked if it comes down more So i'm not saying this is one you need to grab now You could kind of hold off on this one and see where it goes But I don't mind the over here at 47 points But I think this game will be fascinating because like I want to watch marshal lynch play football again, you know, so actually like that's fascinating to me personally But I want to see what garoppolo does because I haven't had doubts on him for half a year now And now I do again because of the richburg injury. So I want to see how this plays out because this will go a long way towards Forming my thoughts on the 49ers and the playoffs because richburg's not coming back And I think that's a major concern for them. So I think that I want the over here, but The side is is very interesting any final thoughts for you on this one head I know except that i'm looking forward to watching it. I watched all of the last one fantastic game It was an exciting game. It was fantastic. Yeah, that was the game where Uh, tyla laka got hurt and I think mani got hurt too during that game It was just kind of a weird game And there were some really there were some really poor throws towards the end that game That was garoppolo's I would say worst game this year Like you played terrible in that game and that was like a week after I had been like, oh, yeah, I think garoppolo's starting to play better than he looks like trash So I was like, okay, cool. Thanks jimmy But His receivers dropped a bunch of balls in that game and the mani injury is Really tough there and he's he's healthy now. So like but I the western richburg injury I think has gone a bit more overlooked than it should So should be a lot of fun for that one for sure. All right We got five games coming up this week that are all really interesting and you know, I want to see how they play out So, uh, it should be a fun one. Especially looking forward to those college football games coming up on saturday That is all we have for today because there's no Cover in the future for today ed. Uh, anything going on for you this week, whether it be Work or otherwise Yeah, so, uh, I did a series on some bull previews last year Some of those are probably still worth listening to like the one on the interim coach Did michigan versus alabama two teams that I have I think have very interesting stories also In my bull report you can still get the predictions for the rest of The bull games both spreads and totals since the games are already started You can get $10 off that report So you can go check that out at the power rank net and then uh, yeah, just looking forward to uh To uh to watch some football this weekend. Yeah. Yeah, saw the star wars movie this past weekend. So that was Oh, really? Yeah, what'd you think? You know, it was a little disappointed. Okay. I'm not gonna lie. I thought it was kind of a little bit all over the place and uh You know wasn't I don't feel like the last two episodes have been as clean plot wise as as You know other movies in the series have been so yeah, you know, my wife definitely disagrees with me So oh, so she liked them Yeah, she liked she liked she liked it more. Okay. Yeah, I I am Very easy to please is the way that I would say this um from a from a consumption perspective Because I saw I saw it too. Um I am it was fun Like if you're going to have someone who you need to please I will volunteer because I am very easy to Please uh from a consumption perspective. So I'm not very picky Which means that I enjoyed it because like I don't know any intricacies of like the world I don't know if rules are being broken. I don't know if it's breaking the mold of like Star Wars, etc. So it's very hard for me to be like annoyed and I wasn't so I actually enjoyed it quite a bit. I thought it was fun. Um, yeah, the second it was spectacular Oh, yeah, visually it's great, which is what you expect. I don't think I just think plot wise. It was a little weird, right? Yeah, I think the plot I questioned a bit more in the previous one But I forgave it because it essentially seemed like it was a setup for the third one Right. I think a lot of the plot that I wrote off in the second one is being a setup for the third one was no Was never revisited which was kind of weird Um, so it kind of makes me think less of the second one, but I thought third one should now it's a fun movie Yeah, and I think it's interesting that they Their initial plan was to have three different directors for these three movies Yeah, and it's really hard to kind of keep plot continuity when you have That issue right JJ Abrams did the first one thought that was the strongest of the trilogy The second one was ryan johnson Wasn't as excited about that. Although. I think that was more of a minority opinion Yeah, and they had a couple different guys that were going to do this third movie before JJ Abrams took over And I just I think it it kind of like it just kind of jumped around a little bit in terms of Where's Ray's ancestry is from and right? I think that that's why I was annoyed with the second one in retrospect So I was like, well, you kind of just made that one even less consequential than it was to begin with So like my forgiveness was like I felt like I was betrayed because I had forgiven them. I guess a little bit I love ryan johnson. So like I want to like the second he did knives out and knives out is like It was so good. Um, like the rotten tomatoes were mused for phenomenal on that So I think we're gonna go I think we're gonna go check that out. I would highly recommend it Um, like also highly recommend the new jumanji film. Okay. Have you seen the other one? It's a second one, right? Okay, so there's a bunch of them But the first one is the one with dwayne johnson and kevin heart I think it's jumanji enter the jungle or whatever it is And I we just kind of sat down to watch it as the family Not really, you know, it was just like something to do Yeah, and we all thought it was one of the most hilarious things that we had ever seen Yeah, and then I saw the trailers to this next one. I'm like, what is going on? Like I had I was skeptical It's like, wait, you're changing like who's in the characters? Right, bungee. I was very skeptical, but it was hilarious. It was it was fan Tastic they really did a good job. So go see the first one with not I haven't seen the old one with with Robin Williams, but the dwayne johnson kevin heart ones You said you haven't seen the original one. What you haven't seen the original I haven't seen the original one. What? No, that was like in your like Prime movie watching Like era when did it come out like the mid 90s, right? Well, okay, so you got to understand that growing up as an asian child I missed a lot There's a big black hole of pop culture that i'm still kind of slow catching up on but I never saw star wars as a kid Really? Wow, so I I've seen every single star wars movie within the last Four years, okay, like with my own children interesting. So I didn't know this it was 95 Is when the jumanji movie came out? Yeah, no, so I've never seen that one It scared me a lot So I refused to like rewatch it after I watch it that and willy wonka were the two most terrifying movies I ever watched as a child um Like my aunt bought me a willy wonka like vhs when I was growing up and like I just it taints everything like I just I can't that movie is terrifying The original one the johnny depp one's way more terrifying, but I was older than when I saw that one um But yeah, I think I think between knives out and like star wars and now jumanji I think you've got some pretty good selections out there. You were a movie going person So you've got college football got the nfl got some good movie selections. What else could you want? uh I mean, it's a perfect setup for spending time with your family. I mean, that's why I really like You know like the act of just going and like the build up Yeah Going out to star wars and just doing it with the family and we all you know We did we all had our different opinions on it But but just the act of doing it was is just a great way to spend the holiday Yeah, and that can be whether you have kids or not So I spent the build up before getting yelled at on facebook live about joe mixon So I was the build up through it was not that fun. I was very annoyed with everyone But once I got in there, it was an enjoyable experience Maybe I was just like so annoyed by everything else that I was more inclined to enjoy it. Um, but yeah get away. Do you have any uh Christmas traditions in the thang household? I don't know to eat drink. Yeah, I mean nothing nothing in particular. It's kind of changing Uh as our life changes so yep, but yeah, we usually spend it together and it's great. What about you? Parents house is always homemade pizza and I am very much looking forward to that should be a lot of fun a lot of driving to on christmas day Uh, I'm usually not there christmas day Because I'm we kind of move all over the place, but when I was growing up it always be christmas eve we would do the the homemade pizza And it's just kind of whenever people are home now because like my sister and I both live on the east coast My parents are in minnesota, so it's kind of like whenever people can get home Essentially is uh how it works out. We do it in an escape room too Which I think is really fun. Yeah, those those puzzle things, right? Yeah, exactly. I'm terrible at them I do not contribute at all, but I enjoy being there. So there's value in that Well, happy holidays to you and to your entire family. Yep. Appreciate you swinging by here and talking for today Find all of ed's work at powerink.com and also find him on twitter at the powerink Enjoy the football and we'll talk to you again next weekend. Sounds good. Yeah after a new year. Happy new year Absolutely. Thank you and happy holidays to calvin theobald our video producer as well Thank you cal for jamming us in here on this monday and getting everything chopped up for the at fandal twitter account as well I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast Happy holidays everyone tuning in for today Whatever you may be celebrating hope it is safe and I hope you have a lot of fun with your family and enjoy the football as well We'll talk to you again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network