 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for recommencing the 16th of November with me Patrick Mullerley. There is clearly a developing optimism that the vaccine is firmly on the horizon, but this leaves a potentially quite long window before there is an oculation programme and the economy, certainly in the US, can be fully reopened. Moreover, with COVID cases spiking higher in the US, there is a sense that it won't be long before stricter containment measures are reintroduced, most likely soon after Thanksgiving. At the same time, the political backdrop remains a source of uncertainty with vote recounts, legal cases and claims of fraud bubbling away in the background. This is fueling political animosity and markets of concern that any physical support to help mitigate some of the economic damage from restrictions may slow in coming as a result. As such, the Federal Reserve could yet be forced to step in and shore up confidence with more asset purchases. Data-wise next week in the US, we have industrial production and retail sales numbers for October and they should pose decent gains. However, the clear risk is that both reverse again in December if we do see another COVID containment return, which is leaving the focus now on the potential for a negative first quarter 2021 GDP print. From a technical perspective, the dollar index remains firmly in its range with range resistance pivot at 94.27 and then we have the range support down at 92. A breach of this 92 handle will open a move down to test 91 as the next downside objective. If we can get back through the upper pivots at 94.27 then we could look for a test back into the 94.75 handle but for now seems to be that the pressure is to the downside. Liked data calendar next week in Europe, the Eurozone consumer confidence for November will be the most timely update and that is expected to show a rebound which then could be followed like many of the developed economies with a pullback as new COVID cases emerge and stricter restrictions are enforced throughout the Euro area. From a technical perspective, the Euro dollar whilst we hold the support now at 117.42 I'm looking for a retest of the price cycle highs at 120.05 on route to an ideal 122. A close back below 117 would delay the upside suggesting a retest of range support back down towards 116. The UK must of next week's economic data may be seen by markets as either irrelevant or old news. The October retail sales update will of course be for the period before lockdown after several months of strong returns look for a modest fall in October. However, the outlook for such a volatile series is always unclear and any decline needs to be seen in the context of a sharp rise over the past five months. The initial reading for the November GFK consumer confidence measure will capture the first two weeks of the month that means it will reflect the impact of England moving back into lockdown but maybe too early to show a positive impact from the vaccine hopes. We'll also get public finances for October next week will provide further evidence of the negative impacts of the pandemic on budget deficit. You'll come ahead of the following week's public spending review and the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast updates. From a technical perspective, Sterling, as we hold 131 as support, certainly with news out over the weekend of Dominic Cummings' exit from Post and Special Advisors Boris Johnson markets are likely to deem this as a constructive move for the EU-UK trade relations so once we hold this 131 area, look for a retest of the price cycle highs up towards 134.75 and then on to an ideal equality objective at 135.53. A close back below 131 would open a test of ascending trendline support back down to 129.50. Again, like I say, the bias at the start of the week here is for further upside. In Japan, Monday we'll see Japan's third quarter GDP and industrial production. The anticipated rebound will only partially offset the contraction witnessed in Q2. On Wednesday we get the Japanese Trade Report and then on Friday we get Japan CPI which is on the threshold of deflation, the 2% target moving further away and both the manufacturing and the services read although they will show a bounce, the momentum has slowed and they are still technically still in contraction. From a technical perspective, the dolly-en under pressure must be hold. 105.70 is resistance, look for a test of the 102.76 area. If we fail to find support here, then look for a breach further down to the downside to test the prior lows here at the 101.12 angle. Only a close back through 105.70, suggest a false downside break and look for a retest of 107 from below. In Australia could be some negative domestic data next week. On Wednesday they will be releasing third quarter wages growth. It is likely to be very slow. On Thursday you can expect Australia's October labour force survey to show a further 30,000 falling jobs and a rise in unemployment rates up as high as potentially 7.2%. The other thing to be cognisant of is that RBA Governor Lowe speaks first thing on Monday at the Asian market open. From a technical perspective, as the Australian dollar holds above 72, I'm looking for a retest of the price cycle highs at 74.15, enroute to an equality objective at 75.51. However, if we do get a close back below the 71.70 handle, then look for a retest of range support back down to the 70 level. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week menacing the 16th of November. For sure to join me on Thursday for a live market analysis session at 1pm UK time. Thanks very much and have a profitable week.