 I do believe that the market has an opportunity to back test one more day, okay? Two reasons why I believe that. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com nightly update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Happy Monday, hope everybody had a good trading day. If you are new here, if you could be so kindly, drop us a like, and if you are new, especially we invite you, I had to join this journey, this never ending journey of fun and excitement, sarcasm, as we talk about the stock market with a very, very unbiased view, please subscribe as well. So let's talk about the tape. Interesting scenario. If you go back to January the 16th, right? Excuse me, January the 6th, that was the, literally the reversal of this whole rally, you'll notice there's something pretty clean when you look at this chart. Three out of the 16 days since the low of this bottom channel of the linear aggression lines, the candle, the Japanese candle closed red, which basically means the close was lower than the open. If you can see here, you can see with your eyes only been one, two, three, that's it, three closes. And we talk about this every single video, a bear market will not go down every single day you're going to have reverse trend days. And here where we are on the bullish side of things, once we reclaim the 50 day moving average and also reclaim the 200 day moving average, we say this every day, there's no way the market can continue to go higher and higher, although it felt like that all the way through January. So it's very important to understand that, anything that's overextended, you kind of want to leave alone, take it trade by trade, because what ultimately is going to happen is if you're not conscious and if you're trading with rose colored glasses, you're going to get pulled. If you look at the action today, it was actually pretty good. The value on any type of days that are reverse trend days. I'm always, if it's a bull scenario, so like we are right now, I always liked the bounce plays. We had several pretty aggressive bounce plays today. Tesla was an absolute gift going red to green, even on the bottom channel today that really had a great, great spike, continuation of its earnings move had a really nice rest today towards the end of the day, which is absolutely great. When you look at a name like Navidia that had this really, really great run, okay, it just got in a little bit of tired. Even Apple, who's not been leading the market, you could see how much strength the Apple had. Apple literally had two days, two days since January the 16th that played out as red candles, again, lower closes than open through the day. And that's good. That's exactly what a bull market is. You need digestion. You need days that the market kind of rests, get its feet underneath them, take a breath and kind of trying to digest the recent moves for the next like hire. I do believe that the market has an opportunity to back test one more day, okay? Two reasons why I believe so. I think obviously the overall trend is still higher. I still believe the market goes higher. When do I don't believe the market will go higher? If we lose back to 50 day moving average, then you can rip out your buy button. But until then this whole trend is very status quo. And you can see or even this bar, right? This guest out bar followed by one more gap down. So we have kind of a little bit of a guest out bar here and I'll explain in a second what this means. But more important is the reason why I think we might have one more day, potential one more day of a back test is Wednesday is FOMC, right? How is speaking there is scenario with 25 base point hike. There's also obviously the interest for all traders and investors is what's gonna happen next. What's their contingency plan? Again, from one side of their mouth they're talking about inflation is still here. Everything is still crappy. We might be raising rates till middle of 2024 end of 2024 and then you'll have somebody like Waller come out and say, well, wait a minute. I think everything is starting to get under control. I think we have now a contingency plan when these hikes can stop. So again, we'll see. I think the market is going to need a little bit of language to kind of see what happens. But I could definitely see a scenario that if potentially we do have one more day of back test if the queues confirm the five day moving average you can see here we close right at the five day. So if the queues can confirm the five day tomorrow to the downside, yeah, I think there's a trade there and that's all it is, okay? I'm not looking for, I'm not looking for, we're going back to the lows, this that the other thing, it's just the trade. I'm looking for cash flow moves. And for all you guys who are in the AAT community you'll notice I have majority of, I would say I think majority of the names going to the downside tomorrow just because of this close, right? Just because of this first close below the previous day's range and we have one more day of potentially digestion, people sitting on the sidelines seeing exactly what Powell's going to say come Wednesday afternoon. So that's pretty much it. Sometimes you don't need a lot of language, a lot of data to kind of give you an idea of what's going to happen for tomorrow. If you go through your names today, and again I trade primarily 90, 95% of the same 10 stocks but if you go through the NASDAQ 100 tonight you'll see a common theme. You'll see stocks that are trading either below the previous day's low that need to be confirmed tomorrow or stopping just above yesterday's low that obviously need to confirm tomorrow. So if you look at the Qs, and I'm going to share this price with you, keep an eye on the Qs. You see this 289 level, excuse me, this 289, 80s level, right? That's the five day rise in support. Qs start losing this 288, 90s. In other words, they gap up, right? They gap up and start losing today's channels. You know, we could get another poll. You know, maybe a poll to 287, right? 287 maybe if it gets one more day of extension maybe 286, very possible. But again, all this is I'm just getting prepared for both sides of the market. You know, if we do rally start reclaiming, you know, yesterday's channels I'll be interested obviously to the long side but I could definitely see a scenario of the bulls and the bears kind of just kind of resetting and you know, taking advantage of potential, some intermediate short-term channels to the downside for some cash flow. And if you see, if you are looking for ideas, again, look at the stocks that are, you know, had the biggest runs, right? We talked about on NVIDIA, right? Had a great run. Again, NVIDIA is, you know, same thing, three down days since January, you know, January the sixth. I mean, that's kind of replicating. We could see here, NVIDIA is taking down two days worth of price action. So if NVIDIA confirms, again, maybe it's, you know, maybe it's a move to the 10-day moving average. Tesla is an absolute monster. Would it shock me that it continues tomorrow? No, it would not shock me. It's been an absolute godsend today. We've had several, several, you know, really good bounce plays today. But the point is, you know, not everything goes up. It's pure gravity. And, you know, they are coming for the end of the week. They were bidding, you know, they were coming for the 82 and a half and the 200 calls. Look, if Tesla starts losing the bottom channel here, yeah, I'm definitely interested for potential move back to the five-day moving average. Again, just to get some cash flow, we are just putting ourselves in a position. We know the market had a big run, a ridiculous run. I think the NASDAQ is up, what, 10, 9, 10%, 11% going to the final day tomorrow. Just an absolute epic run by the bulls. So this is a really good warranted, right? Warranted rest, reset, whatever the hell, you know, whatever the hell you wanna call it. But at the same time, we're not gonna sit there, wait for, you know, the channels are set up back to the upside again. That's the whole point of taking a day-by-day trade-by-trade based on the previous nights, based on the previous nights' research. And again, my research is telling me, hey, if we confirm one more days of channels on all these high-flying stocks, yeah, there will be an opportunity. So in a perfect world, right? In a perfect world, if we are going to have one more day of downside action, right? Some backtesting option, the optimum thing that would happen tomorrow is obviously a gap-up, right? Because if you have a gap-up and you put it in the lower high and get stuff into 60-minute supply, well, what is it gonna happen, right? It's gonna probably take out the previous days' lows, which is today's channels, and if that happens, that's when I believe we can get our value. So that's it. I mean, that's it. You know, certain days you have to sit there. You have to sit there and dissect 12 million things. We know two things. The market had a phenomenal run. Tomorrow's the last day of the month, so a lot of traders are probably even going to be taking off. It is the day, day and a half ahead of Powell, so a lot of traders will be waiting to see what Powell says, what the Fed says, and what the language, at least the contingency plan going forward. Some days you have to be, you have to go through data with a fine-tooth cone. Other times you have to just look things from a simplicity point of view and say, hey, the market's tired. There's a really good chance that if we do confirm today's channels back to the downside, obviously a good reversal day today from the exhaustion channel from Friday. And if Das does confirm, we could just take advantage to the downside. So again, be prepared on both sides of the market and let's see which way the wind blows and let's see how much value we can get on both up and the downward side. Guys, have a great night. God bless. Some days you have to get aggressive. Some days you have to get passive, but that's the key. Stay in business so you can have those days. Guys, God bless. I'll see you all tomorrow.