 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com Welcome to this week's supply and demand forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new or warm welcome to you and if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you and If you want to support the channel for absolutely free and get this and it really helped the YouTube algorithm get this quality content out there Don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow colleagues as well as you know Instagram and also on other social media like Facebook would be really appreciated. So Getting into this week's upcoming news We have on trading economics the week ahead. We have Zooming a little bit. We've got the US and China will be publishing inflation updates for April in the coming week that is important because Inflation has a knock-on effect on Monetary policy, so whether central banks will hike hold or cut and if you want to Find out exactly what that means then you can go to my YouTube channel or click on the link in in the top right-hand side and it'll take you to a Mentoring video I had with a student explaining really the fundamentals and how you can really understand Currency value from an interest rate inflation and GDP perspective And the knock-on effect of monetary policy While first quarter GDP releases from the UK And we don't trade Malaysia or the Philippines and factory production numbers from the US Eurozone will be keenly watched other important data To follow include US retail sales and consumer confidence Japan current account and Australia business morale and the ECB will be publishing its monetary policy meeting Minutes, which is something to watch out for while central banks in Mexico and Philippines again We won't don't really go there with the Mexican and Philippine currencies But yeah, very some some interesting news data Coming ahead so something to watch out for this week and this could be you know some catalyst for some currency moves so heading into the Technicals and in-depth fundamentals and let's get into doubt Jones dollar index and the DXY dollar index and really The the really the surprise news this week was from the jobs report. So Jobs report is latest sign of growing pains for the US economy and hiring and supply chain constraints Holding back employment gains and recovery won't be straightforward as pandemic effects linger and there was a there was really a massive miss because there was a lot of Economists and banks really that were predicting anywhere between a million to two million jobs, so You got standard charters Jeffrey's Goldman Sachs Nomura Deutsche Bank or you know, the major banks really kind of predicting on the Friday Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate To be you know, the majority was was above, you know a million and for unemployment rate to be around the 5.8 And that she came out a lot worse than expected So it caught the market really off-guard and that's the reason why you're seeing prices really kind of do This on the dollar index, which is basically just a measure of dollar strength against, you know, major currencies like the the euro and the pound and the Japanese yen so Unfortunate for the dollar and the dollar had been really on a kind of downward Move which was actually surprising because you did get during the month of April You really got some some positive news regarding inflation, but price really wasn't reacting to that positive News and not just inflation. It was employment as well But you just had this you know really kind of unusual sell-off with really no pullback and now we've got some bad news you would think that the opposite might happen, right but You know the Setback, I guess in in the economy really has caused the dollar overall to weaken Is it temporary possibly there's some obviously details in here and it was talking about the the fact that the the Companies are actually finding it hard to Find workers, right? It's it's a bit of a strange one. That's what they call And let me just read this for you So it says while economists are optimistic about future growth employers are facing hiring challenges as well as supply chain disruptions and higher costs Friday jobs Report so it fails so the data suggests that the recovery in the pandemic will continue to be volatile in the coming months and Despite surging job openings, right companies say that they're having trouble recruiting workers because of ongoing fears of catching the virus So jobs are available, but people are Hesitant probably to go back or also as well. There is the You know stimulus checks, etc. Who wants to go back to work when you get some free money But there was something I wanted to point out as well It's a very interesting article on Bloomberg But Federal Reserve drone powers previously said any changes to monetary policy will depend on months of strong employment April data could move the Fed's timeline further into the future according to some economists Which makes sense and it's really what I was talking about with my private mentoring group is that The dollar now for me is probably a sell in the short-term any pullbacks to supply will be Would be a short would be Sales and when I say short-term you're looking at maybe one to three months until the data really starts to come in positive I think the dollar against various some some other currencies not every single currency, of course, but other currencies is probably a sell and And so with that being said pullbacks to any kind of supply zones Would be and and then kind of set off around here would be great Confluence because you understand that from looking at the The DXY the dollar index that the dollar overall should potentially, you know want to sell off for this confluence there If for example fortune has changed for the dollar and this demand zone is quite decent for a potential long trade And again, you want to see users as just confluence And if the dollar starts to to rally a little bit based off of news because we're always looking at you know Fundamental analysis and reasons why this is a potential bargain Then that would be like really the catalyst when we're seeing price react to some, you know fundamentals of risk sentiment, but For now, I think the dollar may want to continue selling off doesn't mean it's going to sell off forever And it's going to be you know a hundred bearish days. That doesn't it's not how it works You know, there are pullbacks. There's profit-taking for example, but for now, I think from a confluence perspective The dollar I've kind of changed my bias on the dollar From a sentiment and fundamental perspective on certain pairs and yeah, it's for me It's probably just looking for pullbacks to potentially short the the dollar moving on to the dollar yen The dollar yen again The yen isn't doing too well either But I think with the with the recent negative sentiment around, you know, US jobs You know dollars pretty much selling off as a whole so Last week you did have prices come up to this nice fresh supply zone area and prices did react So if you did manage to get short on the the dollar well done to you She should be in a bit of profit. We've come down to a bit of a demand zone again Why would you want to be a buyer of the dollar right now is the question? And that's not to say that prices can't go up from here But you have to understand that you're buying the dollar against the Japanese yen And although the dollar is in in a bit of trouble Japan also is in a lot of trouble as well So Japan seeks to extend the virus emergency covering Tokyo to the 31st of May some measures to be expanded include I don't know how to pronounce that H. She I guess Foucault There's no Ellen there, but Yeah, those prefectures minister says may Visit by IOC's president would be difficult and the Japan are hosting. I think the Tokyo games, I think it is The the Olympics, I think it is yet to the Olympics in less than three months and they've you know They're going into lockdown. So they're under a lot of pressure at the moment. So although again the dollar might be Potentially a sell would it be a sell against the Japanese yen is the question and I think there are definitely better Currencies to buy against the dollar. So if you do think, you know, the yen may be a potential Sell also against the dollar. Then you're really looking for a By trade either here or at this 108 or just this one below the 108 level You're looking for sell trades looking for a pullback up into this supply zone and then a bit of a sell off there But the pair itself isn't necessarily the the greatest to look at Looking at the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss again this week We've had This the Swiss Frank really kind of strengthen which is Which is a bit of a bit of a strange one for the pretty much again the whole of of April But now the catalyst really was you know this week the dollar weakness There was a nice supply zone hidden supply here and again if you did manage to get short on the On the dollar against the Swiss Frank that would have worked out really really nice for you That level I probably was probably gone and really the next level down if you're looking to be a buyer of the dollar It's going to be That zone right there So decent for a potential buy but from a sell trade perspective You're looking at any kind of pullbacks before getting Short for me the Swiss Frank is definitely never a buy with especially with negative interest rates So unless we're in a risk-off environment and at the moment risk on It's prevalent. So again from a from a buying the The Swiss the Swiss Frank against the dollar isn't something that I would really be interested in moving on to the dollar CAD and the CAD is Doing really well a lot of forecasts were pretty much saying that That's The the Canadian dollar would strengthen around the one-two ones and really it has actually come true really really nice trades To the short side so I think continue short sides Especially because the Bank of Canada have come out and said that they are looking well They actually did taper so tapering means the removal of bond purchases and quantitative easing. So Or with the reduction I should say of that and so what you're seeing is two really kind of central banks And monetary policies really diverging and you basically seeing this happen with regards to price So any pullbacks if you want to get you know short on this currency pair back to the one-two free areas It's actually, you know, really nice. There isn't any major demands. There's demand from back in 2018 but I really kind of hesitate or such to say 2017 it's definitely a level but I hesitate to put that demand zone there because whatever drove Prices higher from here may not be the same thing and it's not the same thing As what may drive prices around, you know higher around this area And it's price zone here. So I'd prefer for price Really, although it is a level to look for and there will be you know traders taking profit. Yeah, it's definitely a nice institutional level Banks definitely look at and Towards when it comes to They will anyway, but from a demand zone perspective, it's just not something I would look to buy I wouldn't really live to buy the dollar right now anyway So you want to really wait for maybe some sort of proof of value for the demand zone to create itself And then maybe potentially look for a pullback into that zone if you know, the fortunes for the dollar has changed Then that's when you want to get, you know long back into that demand zone Now moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and the New Zealand dollar did actually did have some decent news this week New Zealand dollar jobless rate unexpectedly fell for the first quarter So unemployment fell from 4.7 to from 4.9 in the fourth quarter and joblessness still above pre-pandemic rates stimulus to remain so Positive news for the New Zealand dollar this week as prices came back down into this deeper into this demand zone and then with the catalyst obviously of US jobs as well and not doing great This was would have been a really nice buy, but remember at the time hindsight We don't suffer from hindsight bias Is that the expectation was for the dollar to actually do really really well and add like, you know million jobs? Million plus jobs. So this would have been a really hard trade to take in the first place, but You can pretty much just see that, you know, the way the divergences really work when you have one country You know doing decent in another country not doing well, right? So how to kind of play this if you really want to get long would be for you know To look for pullback potentially into demand zones or newly created demand zones if prices make, you know New highs for example, they prices pull back make a new high and then you pull back into that demand zone before looking at getting long From a short trade perspective again, you'd have to ask why you want to be buying the the US dollar But if you do then there's a short trade probably the highs up here would be better suited for for any kind of short trades, that's a fresher area of supply and But I think demand zones all the way this level is probably gonna get adjusted now as we see new high so that's where the new demand zone is and Yeah, let's see what happens with this currency pair So now let's go on to the pound dollar and the pound dollar benefiting from Some really good news this week matter of fact Bank of England says the UK is set for the strongest economic growth since World War two So interest rates, you know to be kept at record low of 0.1 with GDP growth now forecast to rise to 7.25% In 2021 so Britain is on track for the strongest growth since Second World War this year has its stages fast and an expected recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic according to the Bank of England, so that's usually positive for a currency and against the backdrop of a potential Setback for the US economy then this actually looks like a really really nice potential sell now From a supply zone perspective probably draw it from there And then you want to draw demand zone quite a wide demand zone But it's there as we're making higher highs and higher lows so any kind of pullbacks into this zone I think around here is going to be a really nice Pullback into date if not if prices kind of break through that supply zone then any kind of pullbacks will be quite decent so I've got a long bias. I haven't traded the pound dollar for ages, but actually now might start to look for Buy trades intraday buy trades capture pain relief stop hunts and daily Demand zones from from a long trade perspective now on the on the pound dollar and take advantage potentially of some recent Positive news for the not only the pound but negative news for the US But if you do want to get short on the the dollar I wouldn't say now is the right time probably looking for prices to pull back up into that area of supply And then also as prices come up here If there is some good news for the dollar or bad news for the pound then look for potential short trades into that area there moving on to Euro dollar and Euro dollar What a decent trade this was we the group We've been talking about in a private mentoring group that that the really the banks are talking about the one two five We've been saying this for quite a while even in the face of positive dollar news and this is because The Europe are now set to actually be you know to come back on track with their their recovery. So As Europe starts to recover The the banks forecast a really a higher euro dollar and you've actually seen it You know here where prices have come down into this nice demand zone And then we've just seen a really nice buy trade again It would have been a difficult one to buy simply because of the dollar We were actually I was actually taking advantage potentially of a short trade a short trade setup around here Seeing if prices could actually go to the downside a bit further before going higher But it didn't quite work out made a small profit on that the rest of the positions got taken out a break even But now my bias really is to the upside on this currency pair for now. I Just changed my bias From a fundamental perspective and as long as again the data supports the narrative It's not necessarily a guaranteed buy because you still have to see Europe You know come through with their with their data, right? There's no point in just buying the euro if the data doesn't support the narrative You can say whatever you want about buying the euro and what potentially may happen But if it doesn't happen and you don't see the data support the narrative, then it's not really a buy But let's see what happens because there is negative sentiment and negative data around the dollar So what typically happens is is that the euro can be a beneficiary of that? So any kind of pullbacks if we get any then for me is a bit of a medium to long-term buy on the on the euro dollar and again just some fundamental news so ECB's Kazakhs says June decision to slow bond buying possible so again central banks slowing bond buying which is usually positive for a for a currency that could also add weight to a Stronger euro, which actually is not beneficiary for the for the European central bank a lot of Banks actually want a cheaper and a depreciating indeed value currency while they're While they're recovering but but yeah, we'll see what happens with this I've changed my bias to being long on the euro dollar so any pullback this is going to be an absolute bargain I think the 120 level if we can you know pull back there If not, then you're looking for prices to go really kind of go higher Maybe some sort of demand zone pullback and then you see Those areas there if you want to get short. I think now is a decent time That's a nice technical demand zone But I think the power for these resistance is to the upside or looking to get short around there that area the one-two free zone Moving on to the euro yen and euro yen. I really wanted to be a buyer Euro yen there was a setup, but it was I think it was about maybe 20 pips Prices just didn't come down far enough for me to be able to look for an entry But prices and the prices actually went to the upside. Unfortunately There's a bit of a CPR zone But let's see what happens. We can still get involved in this This is probably a demand zone not the strongest area of demand at the moment because prices haven't made a higher high But there is definitely demand there if prices do pull back It's I would really want prices to go higher first and then pull back to this zone before looking at getting Long I wanted to make a higher high Because then that really kind of does prove that this is a strong area of demand If not, then I think this is going to be an absolute bargain Or if prices can pull back to my original area where I want it to be a bit long, which is just below this one three one level Is where I'm looking for potential buys Again, understanding the yen going into Lockdown or they're actually in lockdown and extended and extending lockdowns then. Yeah, that's that's The yen is definitely not a buy in my book and with the euro probably benefiting from Not only the recovery, but from euro and sorry from dollar Weakness, I think it's definitely a really nice currency pair to look for buy trade setups Moving on to the Aussie dollar and Aussie dollar again similar story to pretty much everyone else where you've got You've got some dollar weakness and I was saying again last week that in fact the forecast is for an 80 cent Aussie dollar price range. I'm going to now move The supply zone to around here. I Do think this is gonna, you know, probably break to the upside if you do want to get short This is a really nice technical area, but fundamentally, I'm not really looking to short the Australian dollar against the the US dollar any kind of pullbacks into demand zones, I think would be really nice a really nice opportunity to buy the Australian dollar against the US dollar in the short term and Moving on to the Aussie yen So Aussie yen again Really nice trade set up. We had a stop hunt trade setup around here in the group Yeah, right there. There was the stop and set up. This was the stop hunt. Oh, it was right here Really nice and then ended up getting long so The guys in the group, you know, whoever took that in the group did you know benefit from that trade Opportunity if they saw it I did actually post it in the group But let's see what happens Here's a daily demand zone. So any kind of pullbacks into this zone I think decent areas to look for buy trades and again in the risk on environment the Australian dollar Should really win hands down doesn't mean it's going to go up and up and up every single day Or every even every single week but pullbacks in a risk on environment always buying opportunities, especially with commodity currencies like iron ore Copper making new highs that supports the Australian dollar and you're seeing that play out in the markets And I've been saying this if you go back to my my weekly analysis videos I've been saying it for months for absolute months that all you needed to do on this currency pair Is really just buy that's it just pullbacks pullbacks pullbacks. It's not hard to to See where money should want to float into but does that mean that every single week? You know, there was a buy trade This is what day traders and really kind of lower time frame traders don't understand You can't know, you know, just because I'm long on the currency pair doesn't mean that every single day Is you're gonna get you know or even every single week that is gonna be a buy trade, right? Because for example this area here you had one two three four five six days Over a week of of bearish, you know price action But does that mean that you should have been bearish on the Australian dollar? Absolutely not doesn't make any sense. So, you know, we just have to be patient on our setups Yeah, be patient on the setups when it comes down to a level then you get long when it comes down to a zone Then you get long, you know, when you sit off to see intraday setups to go long then get long, right? But that, you know, opportunities great opportunities and buying opportunities don't come around every single day or every single Week you have to have patience. There has to be patience and Then take your opportunities when they do come anyways moving on to gold and gold is again being a beneficiary Of a weaker dollar, but also as well concerns around inflation, right? So there's been concerns around inflation We are on a risk on environment and a risk on environment We don't typically see gold go higher, but we've got a bit of a mix and match, right? So you've got on one hand you've got a weak dollar so weak USD Right which benefits gold, but also you've got rising inflation, right? And inflation is above the central bank's 2% target Right, and if inflation is above that inflation is basically a Devaluation of the currency so the higher inflation goes the more the currencies being devalued now Where did I put that United States? Here we go. So the forecast in fact and we're talking about inflation Coming up on the 12th so this week the previous was 2.6 So they're above the 2% inflation target But now the consensus and the trading economics forecast is for even higher inflation. So 3.6 3.8% Yeah inflation which actually now starts to put pressure Say put pressure, but it creates a headache really for the for the Federal Reserve because The Federal Reserve don't want to hike rates because they understand that that would hurt the economy hiking rates too soon yet You you've got inflation potentially, you know above the 3% and I get that they're doing average inflation targets So even though you're seeing higher inflation, it's pushing the average up Which is basically forcing them potentially to have to act sooner and the longer that they actually don't act to Potentially raise rates that in the short term could actually benefit gold even more, right? because Inflation may get out of hand and gold is a hedge against inflation the only Downside I guess to you know, the trade idea is that we are in a risk-on environment, right? So risk is on And and gold typically may not do too well in a risk-on environment Because money would really kind of float out of gold and into Other other assets, right? Like for example the stock market, you know, I have a commodities of higher yielding assets so That's the only kind of downside, but I did get this question from a private member and I do think actually it's a decent idea a decent trade idea Apart from the risk on I think if it was risk-off, you know I think it would take all the boxes and for me I would want for a you know pullback and for a long trade, but Personally, I'm gonna probably know, you know, not to necessarily look for gold. I think there are easier trades out there But doesn't mean that prices won't go higher and that you can't get involved in this trade again I'm not a financial advisor right because I'm not trading something doesn't mean that you can't trade it But I do think there is definitely a You know now and at least in the short term Some decent demand for gold, especially with the inflation narrative So if you do want to trade gold obviously by all means you can do what you want But that would be the reason To really kind of get long on gold, especially with the recent, you know dollar negative sentiments any pullbacks Maybe a decent buying opportunity For gold and for them for the list for the for the short term for the next month or or so But let's see what happens, but any positive news around the the dollar or for example if Inflation actually comes out below expected then that actually may Not push gold, you know higher so so any kind of miss on inflation Gold may, you know start to come down if in fact inflation is above that free point Their expectation and I think gold may actually start to look to go even higher than this then this supply zone here, right and then They got another supply zone right there. So that would be pretty start to challenge the highs in fact But let's see in fact there is a let me just put High to a lot of yearly higher to the yearly low and this is where we are in between that I think it's probably about fair. It's a fair value between the August highs the all-time highs and the Say all the time. It must be all-time highs. Yeah, and the actual yearly lows fair value is actually around this 1880 level so you could see prices come up here before actually starting to sell off Anyways guys, that's it for this week I hope you enjoyed it again. Don't forget to like subscribe and share with your with your trading buddies and Really gets the quality material out there. So until the next video have a great week and I'll speak to you soon