 Tonight's daily fantasy baseball slate is just five games and across those five games There are four teams that I want to stack and we have situations like that it probably means the pitching is going to be bad and it kind of is there only two pitchers above $9,000 on fan dual for tonight, but there are a couple of guys in that pool who've been making recent changes to their pitch mix and Optimizing things to lean more on their good pitches And I think that can allow us to feel good about them on a slate where the stacks are great so It may not feel like a super firm slate of pitching and it's not like that's very true But I think there are guys we can believe in we'll break those guys down and get you said for Thursday night's sleigh Welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Thursdays Five game main slate with locks out for 705 four to night and unfortunately There is some rain in the forecast looks like there's a chance of rain for the pirates and brewers in Pittsburgh The rain odds are around like 20% throughout the night So they should be good to go bet check back on that one later on Also rain is possible in Boston once again for the Red Sox and the Blue Jays It looks kind of similar to what happened on Tuesday where the rain was not expected to roll until after first pitch So definitely check back on that one later on because as always Things can get a little bit hairy in those scenarios Hopefully the rain is delayed and we can just get that game in because I do think that a stack is possible in That game we'll talk more about that and hopefully get updated on the weather today for the 4 p.m. Stream Of course 4 p.m. YouTube twitch Facebook Twitter swing by then ask your questions about tonight's sleigh We can be process pitchers stacks one-off stinger calls whatever is on your mind We can talk about that later on today We can also get some thoughts on some home runs because baseball fans Fandall is giving you the opportunity To get involved with daily fantasy baseball with the MLB home run challenge each day You can draft three players and you receive one point for every home run They hit score three points for a share of the two thousand dollar prize pool score six or more points You'll want to share of the ten thousand dollar prize pool All you have to do is head over to Fandall today and draft your sluggers Eligibility restrictions apply head over to Fandall comm or download the Fandall app for more details Pitching preview for this Thursday main slate Freddie Peralta is the highest salary pitcher on Fandall He checks in at ninety seven hundred dollars and they have hundred January you at ninety three hundred dollars Frankie Montas is eighty eight hundred dollars We do have Joe Musgrove a two and then Chad cool also an eighty two to round up the top group for today Does this Alex Cobb is a starter on Fandall right now. He is not starting. It'll be Dylan Bundy It plays of him So if you see Cobb in there ignore him He is not starting for today And I think that the top of the list here is going to be one of the pitchers discussed before who's been making changes recently It's impactful changes and the reason that I focus on quote-unquote most relevant samples despite the fact it gives me a smaller sample is it allows us to identify when pitchers are changing Specifically, I want to know are they leaning on their good pitches Frankie Montas is doing that right now And he is my top guy for tonight specifically Montas had a couple good starts in the road and That was not something he was doing earlier in the year his home road splits were terrible But this this increase from Montas does overlap with the change in his approach I like him tonight despite the tough matchup with the angels the two key starts for Montas are his past two on the road He faced the Astros and the Mariners He had 10 strikeouts in both those games the Astros one specifically was really nice It was very frustrating because I did stack the Astros. It was a small slate didn't go well And I if I had known Frankie Montas was going to throw more splitters I probably would not have done what I did there and that's what he's been doing recently He's been using fewer forcing fastballs over his past five starts His usage in that forced or that five-star sample is 20% down from 29% for the full season and almost all of that Usage has gone towards his splitter that one is up 10 percentage points from where it's been for the full year And every extra splitter is a great thing for Frankie Montas because he has a 55% with rate on that pitch his forcing fastball is at 20.5% That's not ideal. It's better though than the other pitches the Xwoba against the splitter is 151 all his other pitchers in Montas are above 350 so Every additional splitter is a good thing for Montas. He threw that splitter 41% of the time in his most recent start against the Mariners That was his first time above 32% and he had in top 30% Before July 2nd so all three times Montas has thrown that splitter at least 30% of time have come in his past four stars He's throwing his good pitch more and great things are happening. So sign me up the Houston star specifically I think is great for his Alex Knight because the Angels offense is solid They have a 106 WRC plus versus righties. They have a 23% strikeout rate that is higher than the Astros They just lost Jared Walsh to the IL so I think Montas can do really well here I might not rank him first on a full slate, but it's a five-gamer don't have a lot of great options So I'm in I think that Frankie Montas's recent changes Should allow us to have faith in him and I will have that faith and rank him at the top of my list for tonight Now normally I'd be all in on Freddie Peralta here But he and all the Brewer's pitchers are going to be a bit shaky Going forward that pushes him down to second on my list despite a great matchup There's a situation where the standings usually we don't care about standings for DFS I think we need to hear the standings do matter for DFS of the Brewer's pitchers because the Brewer's are At least as of last night or up seven games in the NL central So they can afford to allow themselves to think a bit about October and they are last time out They piggyback Peralta with Adrian Hauser and Peralta left after just four innings That's awful for DFS and they said after the game They're gonna keep doing that and that's not necessarily gonna be Peralta every time It could be Brandon Woodruff and it could be Corbin Burns as well So I think we need to proceed with caution on all Brewer's pitchers won't be Hauser because Hauser pitched last night But we're not gonna know when it when this will happen and when they will piggyback with Peralta Burns or Woodruff That means they all take a hit It's not likely to be Peralta every time That's why I'm willing to use him tonight because he's still a really good pitch 33% strikeout rate in his past five starts with less movement on his forcing fastball He's facing the Pirates who were already pretty brutal and now are shedding hitters So that's why I can get here tonight But I have to put a lid on my exposure to him and all Brewer's pitchers going forward to account for the Philosophy they have which is probably a smart one to conserve their pitchers for October Given they have a decent lead in the division So there's still enough here to be in on Freddy Peralta and I will use him But I will rank him number two behind Montas and this will be something that we talking about the entire year where Brewer's pitching is now much riskier than it was in the past and we have to account for that in terms of our exposure We don't have to ignore them. We need to I would say put a lid on our exposure to them as a result of this So to me it's Montas one Peralta two Those of the two guys who stand out on the slate overall everyone else is Kind of fighting for third place, you know hundred reuse up there in terms of salary I'm not feeling it right now. The third pitcher is one. I don't feel great about either The Pirates are not trying to win. You know, it's the opposite of the Brewer's here and that's pretty obvious So using one of their pitchers is begging for disaster But I do think that Chad cool belongs third on our list as horrifying as that may sound believe me I did not go into my research for the slate expecting to talk about Chad cool in a positive sense But here we are cool has a good slider. We know that for sure, but He used to pair that slider with a sinkery through that sinker 42% of the time last year and it's a terrible pitch the whiff rate has been under 10% on it both last year and this year and It seems like cool is finally realizing that pitching optimal form six starts ago Cool started to turn to his foreseen fastball as his primary fastball and dramatically lowered his sinker usage The four steamers not a good pitch, but it's better than the sinker and it seems to be helping out quite a bit in those six starts Cool has a 4.35 skill interactive era with a 24% strikeout rates The batted ball data specifically has been good, which is very strange for him He's been a guy who's gotten rocked his entire career and the results have been good, too He has a 2.48 era. He has had six plus strikeout three times He hit eight his most recent time out So the pitch mix is helping the key for cool is still the slider which plays well For this tonight. He's facing the Brewers who have an 89 WRC plus versus righties they just lost Christian Yelich to the COVID I L and They are a terrible team against sliders their active roster a 28th against sliders According to fan graphs. So Do I want to use Chad cool? No Someone got mad at me in our Q&A stream last week for suggesting I didn't want to stack against him So obviously there are people listening to this. We're like you dummy. That's very possibly true. You could be right I it is probably stupid to use Chad cool But it's a five game slate. He's pitching Well, he's facing a team that struggles against his primary pitch and that's enough me to put him third on my list Behind Montas and Peralta, I would not mind if you did not get to Chad cool tonight. We'll talk about one alternative and things to watch but You know, whatever I guess we're gonna see what happens here. I think that it's worth some looks for tonight I'm probably gonna use them honestly just because neither Montas or Peralta is infallible. So If you decide to come with let's hold our breath from 7 o'clock until 10 o'clock tonight Now I mentioned before that there are four stacks. I like obviously as pitching is dicey stack He should be easier. It is there are four high quality stacks So although I'm gonna list out the top three stacks here. The fourth stack isn't the same tier I think all four of these stacks are tremendous and their four stacks I want to use for tonight number one on that list is the Tigers and they are likely to move guys to the trade deadline Jonathan scope is not fully healthy right now So we do need to be sensitive to what their lineup looks like as we get closer to lock I'm down to stack them tonight assuming they have enough viable guys in their lineup. They're facing Alexander Wells This will be Wells second start in the big leagues He led up a couple of home runs the raise last week and that makes sense based on his minor league profile He has exactly what we want for stacking. He let up a ball in play About 75 percent of the time in triple a 21 percent strikeout rates 3% walk rate and 49% of those balls in play were fly balls that has followed him to the big leagues It's 10 in the third innings, but he has allowed a 52 percent hard hit rates and a 42 percent fly ball rate the Tigers have some pop against lefties they Put up like 17 runs against Jay happy yesterday I wish that were an exaggeration to someone who grew up a twins fan But hey, they can jump on guys like this and I'm down to think they will do it again here Wells has a perfect stacking profile So even if the Tigers lineup does one to being a little bit weak we can still go here for one off So the Tigers are not a team I would scratch off if we don't get like Robbie Grossman scope, etc. etc. Eric Haas, but we can Still get here for one off for sure one guy who slid up in the lineup with scope out yesterday was Derek Hill He had seconds and Hill does not yet have an extra base hit in the big leagues Which is a pretty big red flag because power stabilizes quickly But one 89 ISO for him a triple a his hard hit rate is about average and he can swipe some bags His expected stats at baseball savants are much better than his actual stats So he's $2,200. I am good taking a swipe at him here if he bats high in the order Obviously, possibly the focal point here followed by Robbie Grossman followed by scope, etc, etc But don't mind Hill as a lower salary option and a guy who would be viable for a one-off if we can't get to a full stack for today Now with Montas being below $9,000 and with the Tigers not being all that pricey either We're gonna have some salary to burn tonight And I think I'm going to use some of it stacking against a guy who is objectively a good pitcher That's 100 Ryu who was facing the Red Sox Ryu is someone I used earlier this year He just doesn't seem right right now ever since the sticky stuff discussion started Ryu has been leaning more on his foreseeing fastball It's not a good pitch for him. He the ex-woba against that pitch is the highest of any of his pitches So I'm guessing 100 Ryu is not doing this because he thinks it's a good pitch I'm guessing he's doing so out of obligation He feels like he probably has to whether it be because of grip whether it be because of anything else and It just hasn't led to good results And I think that as a result that we should be okay stacking against him especially as a team as talented as this Red Sox offense If we look at the past seven starts with more foreseeing fastballs Ryu has a 16 percent strikeout rate in a 4.86 skill interactive era. He is letting up our contact 45 percent of the time He's still getting some ground balls, but the rest of the numbers are super concerning We started to see the rough peripherals translate into rough results He led three runs across four and a third innings against the Mets of the weekend He led up four runs to the Mariners and the Orioles earlier on to and now he's face a Red Sox They have a 104 WRC plus against lefties with a 178 ISO, which is tied for second on the slate They have just a 21% strikeout rate. So I hope Ryu gets back on track He is an interesting and fun pitcher for sure, but until that happens. I am okay stacking against him One interesting guy here for the Red Sox is Xander Bogarts because he's dealing with a wrist injury and sat out a couple of games Earlier in the week and wrists to me are scary. It's wrists obliques Shoulders those are things that can also have power and Bogarts hasn't had a barrel since the all-star break Still his hard hit rate in that time is not overly concerning He is not putting the ball in the ground So I'm still fine with Bogarts, but I will lower him a bit in terms of prioritization Rankings in the stack there won't be any Raphael Devers today most likely so we can cross him off as well but JD Martinez Definitely would go above Above Bogarts Hunter Renfrow as well Those guys will go above him just pushing him down the list still gonna be there for stacking for sure But we'll De-prioritize him a tiny bit in terms of the ranking of the individual players within this stack For the third stack that I actually don't mind checking out the Orioles against Casey Mice Mice is on this really strange plan right now where the Tigers are keeping his pitch countdown It sounded initially like that was going to be just until the all-star break But he hasn't gone more than 80 pitches since then either and the effectiveness has been down recently too Mice has been throwing throwing fewer force emers over his past six starts his skill interactivity era is good It's 3.97, but most of that is because he's limiting walks He's just a 5% walk rate in that time The strikeout rates pretty low at 21% which means he's letting up a lot of balls in play and those balls in play are concerning He's letting up a 46% hard hit rates with a 35% fly ball rate He let up 10 hard hit balls across 14 balls in play last week He also let up 10 hard hit balls at the end of June It hasn't been too hard yet, but there are some pretty serious issues in this profile The Orioles are not great But they have individual hitters we can definitely like and I think we should give them a look On a shorter slade for tonight. They could do well here given the number of balls in play Mice is letting up And I do think that the Orioles are a team. I want to go to for today in this stack We do want to bump up the lefties Mice has let up a ton of hard contact of them with a lower ground ball rate Which makes Cedric Mullins one of the best hitters on this entire slate I would say DJ Stewart likely to hit fifth or so if he plays he has a 172 ISO against righties with a 50% fly ball rate. So I think that those guys are definitely going to be Haters I turned to I would also say that Anthony Santander potentially could be back He's been cleared to return which means he could be back out there. He's a switch hitter So Mullins Stewart Santander all guys we could turn to to take advantage of what Mice can't do against lefties And then obviously flip over to Frank Vanceini and Austin Hayes. They're good no matter who they're facing So I do think that they create out particularly well for tonight Moving on to things to watch the other stack for today and this is not Like a things to watch. This is just a fourth stack This is a fourth stack that I really do like for today is the A's against Dylan Bundy Bundy is starting in place of Alex Cobb It is his first start since he got demoted to the bullpen at the end of June and he was really struggling here in that Demotion so I'm absolutely gonna stack the A's and feel very good about it The reason they weren't higher on the list is that Bundy's probably gonna go around 60 or so pitches tonight Not a full outing when that could allow him to keep his VLO up He's lost he's been better in the pen than it was in the rotation. So I still think the A's are a great stack I think that they are firmly in the same tier as those other three But that's why they're fourth and not near the top of the list So to me it's kind of a clump of four the A's the Tigers the Orioles and the Red Sox All really good teams this act for today. I want to have a lot of exposure to all of them probably pretty even exposure to them too but That was the reason why the A's did get pushed out a bit lower for me If you don't like Chad cool, I mean I get it. I can't blame you You could convince me to rank Jill Musgrove third. I didn't do it because Musgrove's form is terrible He had a plus matchup with the Marlins last week and didn't do much with it He had just four strikeouts across six innings and he hasn't had more than six strikeouts since his velocity dipped six starts ago And that does include a start at home against the Rockies in that time. So Musgrove is a consideration I would just rank cool higher myself. I think that will probably see a decent number of people stacked against school tonight so Probably gonna get into a pretty low roster rate and I think that's pretty enticing so I would have cool above Musgrove Personally among the non-Peralta non-monthos pitchers for tonight The only two pitchers we have not touched on yet are Eduardo Rodriguez and Kyle Freeland Rodriguez is facing the Jays Which means we can't use him as a pitcher, but I also don't want to stack against him He's had good peripherals all year long the results are finally turning around for him So, uh, just kind of staying away staying away from me Freeland's facing the Padres. He does a good job of suppressing hard contact I'd likely wind up breaking them fifth for stacking, but they are a full tier and a half I would say behind the A's in fourth for tonight. So it's a definitive top four for me in stacks I am okay living with just those four and living with just the top three pitchers We discussed and you could whittle that down to two if you wanted you want to lop off cool just go with Montos and Peralta totally fine by me Either way, I think it's a pretty narrow slate in a good way for tonight Let's finish up here with the homerun calls again the homerun challenge up on fangirl if you want to check that out The boring homerun call for today Dylan Bundy will be in there for a bit Dylan Bundy struggles versus lefties Matt Olson is a lefty who is quite good at baseball bold statement there So I'll go Matt Olson as my boring homerun call for today The fun one depends on your definition of fun like if you want super under the radar I don't think he counts, but Robbie Grossman Pretty good power numbers against lefties. I hope he's in the lineup for tonight Good matchup against Wells in a situation where I think It's a it's a good dinger hitting environment for the Tigers So I do think that Robbie Grossman is someone I like a lot for tonight So the homerun calls for today are Matt Olson and Robbie Grossman That is all that we have here for the solo shot for today But plenty more coming up this week on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed because austin swam Will indeed have a ufc Dfs podcast coming up tomorrow morning breaking down Saturday's cards Make sure you check that out by subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We are on apple podcast spotify stitcher google podcast radio dot com tune in you name You can find us there while you're there leave us a rating interview as well If you have questions for me before 4 p.m I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big. Thank you devin for tuning in for today Good luck to you tonight and we'll talk to you once again on friday to close up the week This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network