 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sussman, joined today by Jim Sonnis of FanDuel, and we're gonna ignore NASCAR and the MLB for today, because the NFL draft is rapidly approaching, just three weeks away. So let's talk some NFL draft props. Yeah, my love for NASCAR and baseball goes back a long way, but I remember back in the day, like waking up Saturday morning, hoping the drafts, the Jets with draft Reggie Bush, and kind of rekindling that excitement and talking about the draft here now. So Jacked up for this year should be a lot of fun. How are you doing, Greg? I was getting nervous around the draft season because I'm just waiting for my team to screw up and then the tweets that follow and it just makes me angry. No matter what happens, I get angry. So I go into the season with a bit of trepidation, but we'll get to my team in a little bit. Let's begin with quarterback Justin Fields, and there seems to be a question about what's going to happen with the number three overall pick. We know Trevor Lawrence is going one. We're like 99% positive, Zach Wilson is going two, which brings us to San Francisco's trade at number three. There's been rumors that they're interested in Justin Fields, potentially Trey Lance, and then Mack Jones has, well, the rumor mills swirling. You're Justin Fields believer, you are at least at number three. The number here is four and a half. Well, if you go over or under pick four and a half and you believe it is under, is that because San Francisco's taking them or someone's going to do something at four? The good thing is I don't know, but I don't have to. That's the luxury here of it being four and a half is there are multiple scenarios in which Justin Fields winds up cashing this bet because he could go to San Francisco. Obviously all the smoke says Mack Jones. That could be very true because it's very reputable sources who are saying it. We want to put more stock in them. So we'll allocate a little bit of percentage odds to Fields going number three, but there's also a scenario where the Falcons take him at four, although they did restructure Matt Ryan's contract. There is a chance they could decide to stick there, take a quarterback, get a successor, get Justin Fields back to Georgia. That could happen. That's another chunk of the percentage point pie. The third scenario is where a team potentially Denver trades up to number four and takes Justin Fields there. And Atlanta has said they are open to trading down. If they decide they want to stick with Matt Ryan, they could trade down. And I think it makes a lot of sense if a team does trade up to go up again, Justin Fields. Sure, we hear these red flags about Justin Fields, but his statistical profile is tremendous. His workout numbers obviously outstanding too. So if we're trying to think logically, you would think that Justin Fields will be a top four pick in this year's draft. And I think there are multiple paths to us getting there. So it's up to four and a half. Once it got to four and a half, I was good taking the plunge because it gives me insurance policy in case of 49ers do not go Justin Fields. So to me at four and a half, this is an advantageous number because there are multiple ways for Justin Fields to cash this bet. I think that's the key, right? Jim, four and a half being the number where you have some flexibility at three and at four, and you're not just locked in at one number. Justin Fields, minus one of six number, you can get it right now at the Fandals Sportsbook. And four and a half is the draft pick. I think there is certainly wins with going with Mac Jones. That's where the reputable rumors are coming from at three. But don't count out Justin Fields. It was only a couple of months ago where he was the apple of everyone's eye. My other things changed during draft season. And that brings us to the next quarterback that we have to talk about. And that's Trey Lance. As Mac Jones has risen up draft boards, simulation all fault of his own, Trey Lance has fallen. The number here sits at seven and a half. Will he be picked before, pick eight, or will he be picked after or pick eight or later? The number is at plus 172 to go over seven and a half. And if he gets passed four, I have no idea where he's going. I think that's part of why you like the over here. I do. And I think that it's an uncertain year, Greg, because we'd have to have the combine which means there's less information flowing. I think that that leads to increased uncertainty. So if you can get juice like this on a number in an uncertain year, you should be inclined to do so because we know less than we think we do. I think that if you can get plus 172 on an over under, I'm gonna be inclined to take that pretty much every time. But I also think that it makes sense to go over here with Trey Lance because I like Justin Fields a lot. I think that Trey Lance is very good too, but Trey Lance definitely not quite as good of a prospect at least in my eyes as Justin Fields. Less experience, lower level of competition, less accuracy for Trey Lance than for Justin Fields. So it's kind of tied into the thought that Justin Fields will go top four. That would inherently mean the odds that Trey Lance goes high do go down. If you get past pick number four, you got the Bengals at five, not taking a quarterback, probably taking an offensive lineman. The Dolphins could trade down again, but there's probably a reason they traded back into the top six to begin with. They're probably staying put, not taking a quarterback. The Lions at seven are the biggest question mark here because I think it'd be in their best interest to take a quarterback, give yourself multiple options of that position and see what happens. But they've also said they are willing to move down. So it doesn't seem like they are fully committed to taking a quarterback in this year's draft. That means that this position is up for grabs. It could be Denver trading up to get to seven to get to Trey Lance, but to me, the bigger signal is that Detroit may not be committed to taking a quarterback in this class, which bodes well over here. Once you get past pick number eight, it's kind of, you know, all bets are off for sure where Trey Lance could go, but you've already cashed this over by this point. So it's kind of like the Justin Fields discussion. There are multiple paths to this cash, this backcashing. We just have uncertainty. We don't know how NFL teams actually view Trey Lance. That bodes well for the over, especially when we're getting plus juice like this. It could be a situation where he simply falls to nine and the Broncos take him there, but it's basically a numbers game where there are limited teams that need a quarterback picking in the top seven spots. And if Trey Lance doesn't wind up being one of the top four quarterbacks, I think this bet cash is pretty easy. And there are reasons to think that could happen. So Trey Lance, a guy I like quite a bit, I think there's a lot upside in that profile, but just by the way the board falls, I think over seven and a half is advantageous when we're getting plus 172 on that number. Super advantageous, I agree with you. Plus 172 year over seven and a half, pick number seven and a half for Trey Lance or so many questions are about. Let me know those back at you here, Jim, for a moment. Who do you like more as a prospect? Trey Lance or Mack Jones? Greg, I'm someone who favors upside at all times. And I think that if you're looking at the range of outcomes for these two guys, Trey Lance is the bigger range of outcomes, both in the negative sense and that he could be the odds that he busts are higher, but the true ceiling, the 90th percentile outcome for Trey Lance to me, it's so much better than Mack Jones, I'm fine with that. So I'd be a bad NFL talent evaluator, I'd probably get fired because I'm okay taking risks, but I think that those risks are worth taking when it's a guy with the upside of Trey Lance. Upside is everything, Trey Lance has it, but hopefully being that raw, facing that kind of competition has him going after pick number seven, which you can get right now at the Fando Sportsbook for plus 172. You knew we were gonna have to get to the wide receivers at some point, and that's where we get to now. We're looking at Devonte Smith, the highest minute trophy winner who not surprisingly, his pick number over under is 11 and a half. Why? Well, the New York Giants pick at 11. Do you think the Giants are gonna take Smith or they go in a different direction? That's essentially the question you need to ask yourself. Jim says, well, maybe they will take Devonte Smith. What do you think here, Jim? Over under 11 and a half, you get that number at minus 140, which doesn't seem great. You're very confident here. Well, someone has pre-ordered my Rashawn Slater, New York Giants jersey. I have to, you know, hope they take Rashawn Slater instead, but I think that there are enough teams picking ahead of the Giants, where you got a lot of flexibility here for Devonte Smith to go early. You've got the Falcons. Let's say the Falcons don't trade out, they decide to go with a non-quarterback and build towards 2021 trying to juice up. This year, they go Kyle Pitts, Jamar Chase, and you get to the Bengals. They could go a wide receiver, potentially over Pines. Sewell got the Dolphins at six. Seems like they are most likely taking wide receiver. The Detroit Lions depth chart, Greg, you're actually number four on that. They're probably taking a wide receiver as well. There are a lot of teams that may not necessarily wind up taking a wide receiver, but who could? So even if Devonte Smith does wind up being the third pass catcher on each team's board, there's still really good odds that the undercashes at 11 and a half. And you mentioned that the Giants are there as well. If he gets past like the Panthers or the Lions, then we're getting a little bit scary, because the teams picking after seven and eight aren't as likely to take a pass catcher. And that does make you at least a little bit worried for sure. But with the teams picking four through seven, all being very likely to potentially go pass catcher, I think it makes a lot of sense to take the under here on Devonte Smith. He does have red flags. He is smaller. He is a late declare, which does not bode well from a bust perspective. But when you watch him play, it's so hard not to think that Devonte Smith would be a top 11 pick. So minus 140, you're right Greg. Like that is a lot of juice to lay here. But I think given what we saw this year from Devonte Smith, given the number of teams picking within the top 11 who have needs a wide receiver, it's kind of hard for me to see the over happening. So I'll take the under even at minus 140. That's really the number that scares me here, Jim, really the minus 140, you're absolutely right. There's a ton of teams that could go wide receiver. And there's a lot of talent at wide receiver here in this draft and Kyle Pitts as well. But will they all invest this highly wide receiver? Will Smith be the guy that they invest in? Well, Fandle certainly believes so. Minus 140, you're the number 11 and that pick 11 and a half. We'll see what happens in just three weeks time. That's gonna do it for us here on the Fandle Hurryup. Jim, we appreciate your time. Enjoy the Masters, enjoy your NASCAR, enjoy MLB as we continue to get ready for the NFL draft. I don't know what we did to deserve having the Masters and a seven day baseball slay going at the same time, but not gonna complain, Greg, it's been a long year. So I'll take whatever I can get, appreciate it, thank you. And this is coming after a huge day sleep yesterday that I was able to sit and watch all day, which is awesome. Perks of working at home, Perks of working with the Fandle Sportsbook, this is awesome. For Jim Sanis, I'm Greg Susman. Thanks so much for watching. We'll see you back here tomorrow for another edition of the Fandle Hurryup.