 Hi everyone, my name's Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 calm I welcome to this week supply and demand for its technical analysis if you're a new welcome and if you're returning Welcome back. So let's get into the fundamentals before we get into the technicals as fundamentals are really sentiment and risk sentiment is what drives the market. So What we've got in the upcoming week Is gonna be the US were publishing in publishing their inflation rate retail sales Michigan consumer sentiment and job jobs openings Why is it's really in the most important really thing out of this is probably gonna be inflation rate And that's simply because you have the Federal Reserve Potentially cutting interest rates if Inflation is still below their target. So This is the Fed watch tool and basically what this does is gives you the probabilities of a Fed Rate cut hold or hike Probabilities of a chance according to you know, the big financial institutions and where they're basically put in there their money Where the money's going? So a 92 91 sorry 0.2 percent chance of an ease now again depending on What happens with inflation this can potentially move up or down if inflation is meeting targets Then they're putting may not be a need for the Fed to Cut rates, but at the moment it does look like there is gonna be You know the chances of an ease are quite high What else have you got this week? So elsewhere the European Central Bank will probably unveil its stimulus package on Thursday That's gonna be massive In the market so really gonna be looking at Basically the level of stimulus and they've got I guess a certain How do I put it they've got a certain idea of how much QE All the stimulus package the stimulus package is gonna entail and if it basically exceeds that then I think the Euro will probably end up selling off if it underwhelms then the euro may end up rallying, but I think the chances of You know the the euro really this week decreasing in value is Probably higher on the cards and remember that the European Central Bank actually want a weak currency to stimulate inflation They're not doing it because they want a stronger currency. They're doing it because they want a weaker currency So other important releases include UK monthly GDP while that's important, I think the Main thing around the UK is gonna be all about Brexit any kind of sentiment changes with a deal Brexit or a no deal Brexit It's really gonna drive the markets trade balance and unemployment again Fundamentals are pretty much I think out at the window for now It's all about whether there's gonna be a deal or no deal Brexit and the likelihood of a deal Brexit Probably drive the pound as what happened really like kind of like last week and the possibility of a no deal Or the increasing chance of a no deal Brexit will you know weaken the The pound so we also got Eurozone industrial production and trade balance China foreign trade and inflation data that's really important for I guess the risk off and risk on trade when it comes to the US and China trade war if China trade is going good and inflation is going good then It should be more risk on the risk off meaning that risk on currencies and the commodity currencies like the Australian dollar Canadian dollar New Zealand dollar will continue to do well as you know risk on kind of came into the market a little bit Last week and we'll see that in on the price charts and the Australia consumer and business Morale, I guess that'll be okay for Australia So now let's get into the technicals and we start off on the Dow Jones dollar index As you do every week and the Dow Jones dollar index is just a measure of the US dollar strength against Various other currencies like the Euro the yen and the pound and the Australian dollar So from last week we had pretty much prices come up into this higher supply zone It was already in here and then pretty much it's you know rejected from there now come down into this this demand zone So if you think that the US dollar potentially is going to get stronger and the US dollar did have some disappointing Non-farm news, but what was actually quite good was the fact that they had Higher than expected average hourly earnings So again with all eyes on inflation. Yes, you got eyes on jobs and GDP But inflation is really what the Fed probably maybe more focused on and With inflation potentially picking up you could see, you know, basically prices You know react from here and go higher and again also with the European central bank Potentially run a week in their currency that may force the US dollar a bit higher Anyway, as they kind of work in in opposite. So let's see what the chart really Pretty much the our options So at the moment From a daily perspective what you're probably looking at this level has been touched several times though So it is a bit weak where you got once, you know twice This is the third time. This is I guess, okay Actually has to say what I should say is this is the start of the read the demand zone This is first time. This is the second time So this is okay for a decent buy and you wouldn't necessarily buy the Dow Jones dollar index What you've been looking for is buy trades as confluence on any kind of dollar crosses. If you see The dollar index start to rally then you want to, you know, basically take trades on the Dolly and dollar Swiss dollar CAD etc Buy the dollar against those currencies if you're waiting for basically a short trade on any of the dollar crosses Then you're waiting for basically a pullback into maybe a supply zone and then wait for confirmation To get short around here. So the more times the level is touched weaker. It becomes I guess this is okay You know first time second time if it starts to bounce around here, then maybe we could potentially be looking at a Breakdown or a stop hunt first of all before breakdown So with that being said, let's go on to the Dolly Yen and a Dolly Yen From last week Prices did kind of sell off, but then we had some risk-on sentiment come into the market from last week and there was talk obviously of Trump and China US and China, you know negotiating some sort of meeting In the next coming, you know month or so at the end of the month. So that kind of was positive for the US and the Japanese yen is a risk a verse currency It strengthens tends to strengthen in a risk-off environment. So you can see where basically The yen kind of weakened this week, but we're up into this supply zone here. So Options are Dolly Yen What have we got we've got probably up to here Yeah, we're up to there You've probably got a short an opportunity now if you think the dollar's gonna get weaker and the yen's gonna get stronger If you're looking at any kind of buy trades, I would probably say try to Potentially buy any levels of support within a wide area of demand Yeah, because that's where traders other traders are potentially going to be getting and we know this is demand right here Again, if we really wanted to we could just basically put that on say probably around here Just to clear the chart up a little bit, but I'm gonna basically put it all the way down here This whole area is demand, right? But again, we kind of simplify that by doing things like horizontal support Diagonal support as well so we can add a little trend line here to be high highs high lows but Unfortunately, this trend line doesn't come down into This demand zone so we can't really use it But I would probably say this this 105 to devil if you really want to be a buyer of the dollar versus the yen and Right now you want to be a buyer of the yen over the dollar looking at the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss This week they come up into this supply zone nice outside candle there what I call the capture pain candle and Did sell off but dollar pretty much bounce back on no risk Or risk less risk off. You know, I mean so If we are looking at trades for the week Dollar Swiss Again, you really kind of have to understand the fundamentals on why you're buying and one currency over another It really isn't just good enough to look for technical patterns in my opinion if you can make technical patterns work without fundamentals and sentiment then you know Great for you, but I tend to choose my direction based off of fundamentals and sentiment So I'm always going to be a buyer of the dollar over the Swiss Frank You can see pretty much what happened last week Prices came down into a level of demand that had also confluence of you know Support their support their bit of resistance With that purple zone and you can see where it kind of had, you know, by trace So we don't we're not always chasing price. We're trying to buy value There was a decent trading opportunity right here for traders to get involved in that Long trade up to the the highs if you're trading obviously intradays. So we use daily To find the monzones and look for intraday entries now if you're looking to be a buyer I thought you'd have to look for price to either come back down into this zone here or potentially Somewhere around I would say this this area Probably around here with prices create some sort of higher high high low within this demand zone, but um Those are pretty much your buy options if you're looking to sell right now I pretty say a fresher area, which is really up top above this 99 put point nice a 0.92 level anywhere above there and looking to short and then again That would be more based off of risk off sentiment as the Swiss Frank Strength is in a risk-off environment and the US over the US dollar Looking at the dollar Cad and the dollar cad this week We've got a bit of a move up Right. That was a nice little stop-hunt set up here And then pretty much sold off right there down into this demand zone here And that was also due to I think there was some Not great news for the US dollar this week obviously and there was more positive news for the cad So you can see again the divergence in you know sentiment coming into this week's market If you want it to be a buyer of the Canadian dollar, but As we update the charts what you want to do is it's created lower highs lower lows. That's a nice supply zone now And what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna put that there and so what we want to do is probably look for potential Buyers if you think if you think that the dollar is a bargain price potentially from here It was proven to be a bargain price right here and we know that for a fact because prices went higher here All right, so when prices come back into a demand zone, we want to look for potential Areas of potential demand again So in value, so I would say probably this area right here is a nice area to look for potential long trades So anywhere from now a bit lower around it's one 1.3 150 level Be decent buy and if you're looking to sell then you're looking at price to come back up to here before looking at short trades there or there and now look at New Zealand dollar US dollar and New Zealand dollar I did on a bit of US dollar weakness And to this week so it again came down into this longer term demand zone From way back when don't think the price We go back there on the replay, but you can see pretty much what's happened nice outside candle there capture pain candle Prices have gone on its way So let's look at the update of the chart So we can kind of delete some of these zones because you come back up into that level of Supply how we're bouncing off of it right here. So again, if you think this is a bargain price for the US dollar, then you'd be getting short right now looking for short trades Down at the lows remember we've had this, you know, it's pretty much downtrend for ages So if you are a trend trader, then you're looking for a pullback into an area before looking at getting short and then And anywhere, you know, obviously because this level might not work out prices may come higher before looking at short trades if you're looking at Long trades, then you'd be looking at to get price to come all the way down here before looking at a long trade anywhere around here and what I'm gonna do is I'm going to Keep that long-term one, but I'm gonna keep this Hidden demand zone right around there. So anywhere around here before looking at Any kind of demand trades by trades around here as the market has proven that there's demand here Nice hard in hard out movement moving on to the pound dollar The pound dollar this week has been a wild ride bit of a wild ride with the pound dollar and sentiment so we did have Bit of a set off and all of a sudden prices Reversed back up into this area here. So this lower demand ended up holding, you know, see a spike through Nice capture pain Set up right here prices do come down here to the upside if we're gonna buy the pound and then again based off of pound sentiment and that was really based off of the The fact that there was the possibility of a deal Brexit being On the cards, right and the chance of that increasing. Hence you've got this massive sentiment rally. So looking at the chart one would do is I'm going to delete that delete that and Delete some of these Just we adjust potentially where these demand zones are That's a demand zone there. I'm gonna Get rid of this this this supplies and anyway delete it that was there if we do get Price come down and start to make lower lows Lower highs then that would create a supply zone this week But for now, we don't know whether that is a strong area of supply at all prices pretty much You know kind of broken through that level So For those who do know about stop hunts, this could be a potential stop hunt to the downside as well. So You know, there's there's definitely still an option there, but from a supplied demand zone perspective There's really no Supplies zone major supply zone and less price proves that there is supply there Yeah, so I'm gonna leave it as it is which means they pretty looking for you Again price to create that supply zone there or for price to rally up to this area before looking at getting Short and buying the US dollar, right? So those are your Your options for this week Euro dollar Euro dollar so again Prices sold off Pulled back and then we're potentially selling off. So I'm came back up into this Supply zone so, you know, there could be another sell-off and especially With the ECB announcing stimulus this week and if they do surprise the market I have to like surprise the market in a in a negative way You could probably see, you know, they start to sell off Germany's going into potential recession You know the whole brexit Saga, you know, it which also affects Europe as well because I know deal brexit will definitely affect Europe So it's not looking too too too good for Europe is Worse for Europe than it is for the US dollar and even though that sometimes the focus is on the US and Donald Trump the believe me the US is in I mean, sorry, the euro is in a much worse position so Euro Again, just looking for short trades really if you didn't take any short trades right here. Yeah Then you're probably waiting for potentially this week what could happen is, you know Price is to kind of move up into further into the zone before looking at a short trade If you're looking if you are looking at, you know, demand There is a bit of a demand zone here, but I think this is probably more profit-taking before the the move on Thursday, so again, it could go either way if the stimulus isn't announced or they, you know, hold stimulus Then chances of the euro rallying are very very high, but again with the probabilities is really just on the side of the European central bank Basically increasing stimulus because they're trying to Potentially hold off from Germany going into a recession. They need to kind of boost their economy. So we'll see but again Trading is a probabilities game. There's no certainties in in forex trading. We just trade the probabilities and then Manage our risk So if you are buying you're looking at a basic a pullback back into this Demand zone here before buying the euro if you are looking to Short the euro if you didn't get in here You're probably looking for some sort of pullback into this zone or higher before looking at getting short Moving on to the euro yen And the euro yen this week euro has rallied a little bit Back up into this again this supply zone where you've got support bit of support bit of resistance You can see where it's stalled around there. So let's look at updating these charts And Euro yen there was again risk off So let's risk off for a bit bit more risk on coming into the market and you pretty much got that what I'm gonna do Is I'm gonna delete that Create a new demand zone right here because there is demand there nice demand zone matter of fact But why would you want to be buying the euro when there's a lot of risks? Going on at the moment You know, you're pretty better off and again not financial device, but you're probably better off buying the yen in a risk of the environment, especially, you know with the risks that are going on you know in Europe so Short trades now or looking for pullbacks up into probably this one to zero higher level where there is Bit of if you want to look at some maybe some sort of support resistance zone, let's look back a little bit further actually nothing really Nothing Significant a little bit, but not for a while But I would probably maybe to drag that down maybe a bit lower Right here. So you got resistance here resistance here. So Potentially resistance within this larger supply value zone If you're looking to get short and again your long trades will be looking at had demand zone price to come back and then look for demand around there Aussie dollar finally has Did bounce off this area here presented a nice bullish Outside candle capture paying candle prices have actually gone through that supply zone now So decent buying opportunity if you thought that the Australian dollar was gonna, you know Get a bit stronger. It was bound to happen at some point. You had, you know, this whole, you know weeks of Of a downtrending market then you have you know basically a ranging market and then you're looking for at least some sort of break out At some point when you have a few weeks of, you know range just like you had a few weeks of a trend trend Range and potential trend, but this also could be a bit of a fake out as well So again to the guys that know about stop hunts We'll discuss this a bit later in the, you know, the telegram group area But let's go to the charts and look at Aussie dollar So I want to hear that supplies zone has gone. I'm also gonna adjust this demand zone right here I'll leave it around the lows So what you're now looking at is a potential if you're looking at shorts Then you have to again wait for lower highs lower lows before prices come back to either one of these Levels here either that lower high or that high right there if you want to be a buyer Then you're looking at that right there, but again, we've touched this level once twice so a third time is Is not necessarily the greatest so what you're getting you'd be looking for is some sort of potential stock hunt around the lows so Um Yeah That's pretty much it for now or price is ready all the way up here That's where your next short is Finally, we've got the Australian dollar Japanese yen and Here we go again We had a bit of risk On come into the market and then we've had this rally as the Aussie dollar So, yeah, the Australian dollar will rally in a risk on environment and the Japanese yen will tend to weaken so again looking at the Aussie yen This is pretty much what's happened. I'm gonna move this demand zone really up here get rid of this supply zone and Can get rid of that now and again similar to the Aussie dollar you're bringing for me Maybe I could pull back here if you're looking for any kind of sell trades You'd really have to look for lower highs lower lows then a pullback and then a move To the downside or price is really to kind of rally up here Yeah, so there's a few options again Like I said, so I'm not that then a pullback into a supply zone lower as lower lows and then that would be your supply zone so That's it for this week guys I hope you enjoyed the analysis if you have any comments Definitely comment section box below for those guys who have commented and asked questions Apologies this week has been very very hectic or say last week has been very hectic And I will try and get back to you as soon as possible. Don't forget to like subscribe share And also for those who have signed up to the course. Don't forget you have the members Analysis which is the analysis in depth analysis on 25 currency pairs and that is in the room now with obviously the capture pain Set ups as well. So guys take care and I will speak to you all soon. Have a great trading week