 Okay, traders, welcome to this week's live trend analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. And before we get going here, I just want to check that you can hear me and see my screen. So if you can, can you type a Y in the chat box? You should be able to see a tick mill welcome screen or Y in the chat box to confirm that you can hear me loud and clear and we are good to go. Good stuff, thanks very much. So before we jump into today's discussion, as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer, most importantly for today's presentation is that the views expressed here by me are solely mine. They are not indicative of or representative of those held by tick mill UK or tick mill Europe limited. Also just a quick bit of housekeeping here. If you have any questions with respect to any of the charts that I cover or you want me to take a look at a chart that I don't cover in my deck, then if you can make a note of those and the end of my presentation, I'll open up a brief Q&A and we can cover off any questions you might have with respect to the charts we cover or if you want me to take a look at a chart that I don't cover. Okay, so for those of you here that are here for the first time, brief introductions myself. Like I said, my name is Patrick Munnally and after I graduated from Keynes College London, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I then left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exits a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Having a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets quite literally at times overnight, I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that time. It was day early beginners luck. I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck went out and as the market phase changed, I began to essentially average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains not only experiencing a significant six figure financial hit to say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is really an understatement. I really have to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mental with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of about 18 months to two years, it was a time during which I had not just my technical game, researching, developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpins by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during my period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you really lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through the managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reconsider returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring I'm engaged in other market orientated projects. I am a resident market expert exclusively providing market trade analysis to Tick Mill. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for two to three markets per day. I also run Tick Mill's rapidly expanding E-mini strategy group where I provide a daily specific trade plan with intraday trade updates. Since its inception in April I've delivered over 1,050 points of upside. My other passion project I guess is leading trader education for a premier trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talent. At FXcareerswap we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through our structured program that culminates in managing firms capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. Most recently I've been involved in developing the trader blueprint strategy group which is a professional trading community where traders of all experienced levels can access daily institutional insights from tier one investment bank trading desks and market strategy teams. There are regular market bulletins with in-depth positioning and sentiment analysis along with actionable real-time chart analysis daily setups and trading updates from a team of expert traders. We also look at trader education sessions helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and most importantly the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a pro. So that gives you a sense of where I'm coming from and my experience and current projects. I would say that we are offering free trials to both the Tick Mill E-mini strategy group. I'm going to post the link into the chat. You can get a two week free trial and see exactly what we're doing in terms of the E-mini S&P. Also likewise the trader blueprint programmer. We are offering a free two week trial to that group as well. I'll post the link in there for you. So I strongly suggest you take advantage of those two free trial periods for those strategy groups where you can really enhance your trading experience. So let's move on to the charts now. Got a bunch of charts. I want to go through some setups that I want to highlight and an update on some of the trades that I've been in since last week. So this is the E-mini S&P daily timeframe. Since Lowe's put in last March we have been tracking an equality objective which is now 46-14 for these futures, these E-mini S&Ps. And we have seen a bit of weakness as was suggested that we might do. We pulled back into the support zone here around 44-45. I was short most of last week managing to take out 42 points on the short side. Yesterday I went along the E-mini S&P and took out 20 points on the top side yesterday. I'm now looking for the potential for us to break to the upside here. And if we can get through this descending trend line resistance that comes in now around 44-95, then I see the potential for us to trade to that target zone at 46-14. However, importantly, if we cannot take out the trend line resistance and we get a rejection there, then I'm actually looking for prices to pull back into this monthly range support, private Lowe's here back down into the 43-50 zone. So pivotal couple of sessions coming up. We've got quadruple options, exploration, quadruple witching, sorry, coming up tomorrow where future single stock futures options all expire tomorrow and that can lead to a bit of volatility. So we'll see if that volatility is actually gonna spike us up through the resistance or we're gonna hold resistance and take another look to the down side. Similar story, obviously in the S&P 500, this is, the E-mini is the derivative contract that trades, tracking this is obviously the bigger S&P 500. So we're in the same situation here, we're trading, we're watching resistance at the 44-90, well, 4,500 area in the S&P here. If we can't break to the top side, then again, what we're thinking about is the equality objective, which would actually see us trade down into this major trend line support that comes in at 43-93. That's projected off Lowe's from last March. The way that trend line is actually achieved is by tracking this trend line here and then overlaying it versus the single point at this stage and this would be the second test of that potentially significant trend line support. NASDAQ, so again, NASDAQ sitting up, well, we tested monthly pivot for a nice rejection yesterday. We need to get back through the weekly pivot to set up and move to get us into this 15,900 level. And then from there, I'll be watching as long as we've got divergence for another leg to the downside towards when we play out. But certainly yesterday got a nice bullish rejection of the monthly pivot. And if we can trade back through 15,545, then we look for a test of 15,850 to the upside. DAX, most of this one earlier in the week has a bit more of a bullish structure at the moment. We didn't even test the trend line support. We held the monthly range support. If we can get back through the monthly pivot now at 15,810, I'm looking for a move up to test 16,280. And then I'd be looking for this bearish momentum divergence to the address and ultimately bearish reversal patterns in this area, set short positions, certainly looking for a move down into the 15,000 level. Nikke, it's been the outlier, the strongest after for quite a long period of time, having the weakest at the major global equity indices. We're seeing a bit of a pullback here now, but this structure certainly looks bullish. We haven't got any momentum divergence really into that high. So that would suggest that this is going to be an interim high. We have got a five-way sequence here. So when you pull back back into, to test this descending trend line resistance now to act as support 28,600, I think is going to be an opportunity on the long side and ultimately we look for a move up to test 32,000, which is the 127 extension of a potential wave four low here. And that's the minimum upside objective you get for a fifth wave extension, if this is going to be our current wave four. So we could actually trigger as high as 33,700 to 161, but certainly the minimum upside objective now as we hold support will be a test of that 32,000 dollar index. Still tracking and looking for this wave four high here to work to play out. It's been pretty choppy trading at the moment. The market really is in a holding pattern as such, certainly with a bunch of these FX majors as we go into next week's FOMC and are the Fed members going to coalesce around the idea of the tapering and when do they see that potentially happening? Certainly it's looking November, December time at a minimum. So that's why we're seeing the dollar just trading chopply in this range we'll wait to see next week. If they do give us some solid indication of when the tapering is going to commence then that could lead to a dollar pop here and the target we're looking for is this 94, 15, which is the year in PIVOT gold. Pulling back, looking for a three way corrective move here now. And then what we could have is a nice inverse head and shoulders pattern to play with. Watch for bullish reversal patterns in around 1750. Then we look for a test, third test of descending trend line resistance 1850 before then I think making a big move down to test this quality objective versus this swing high here down to the 1520. Silver, bearish on silver against this swing high looking for a retest of 22, 20 to 30s. And then I think maybe we hold the range support again and then we can think about targeting range resistance back up into the 28 area. Crude oil, had a perfect test of the equality objective. So we have A, B, C, 62, 55, traded down to 62, 19, and then we've seen the strong reversal. So what I'm watching for now with crude is I'd like to get back up into this 74, 74 area and then get a decent pullback into this support zone coming in around 67, 30, before then extending up into the fifth wave objective, the minimum upside objective versus the fourth wave low here that we have gives us, actually let's extend that that's there with me one second. We've actually got a higher, there we go. So 81, 15, the other level to pay attention to is this 80, 30 that's the 127 extension of the pandemic. Meltdown basically is what we had in crude oil. So this 80, 30, 81, 15 is the upside objective of looking for an entry into that trade. Ideally we're going to pull back into this prior trade loan resistance now to act as support. We've got the monthly pivot coming in there. So something like this back into this zone will be an opportunity on the long side to target 80, 30 to 81, 15 on the upside is what I've been looking for. Copper, as copper holds resistance here at the 4.4551, I'm actually looking for 3.8552 as a major way for low then, watching for bullish reversal patterns there, set long positions. And again, we're looking at a minimum upside objective there of 5.03117 in terms of copper. So breach of the monthly pivot here, 4.2789 will be the first indication that we're going to make this move down and test the equality objective versus this one structure here. Bitcoin. So we had the moving to the target zone. We have since pulled back, I'm now looking for a three wave correction to get us back into this 41,700, 41,600 area. If we can hold there as support and what I'm actually looking for is for Bitcoin then to, for bulls to set back in, retest price cycle highs, consolidate the ultimate breakout to test the 75,000 area, which is the projected ascending trend line resistance. If we lose support here, monthly range support 39,680, then look for a test of the ascending trend line support 36,600, sorry, 33,600. If we fail there, then we actually have an approach to Jackson. I'm just going to draw this in so you can visually see exactly what it is I'm talking about. We have this swing, this swing and the equal legs would actually have us down into 17,395, less probable, possible, but less probable at this stage is what I would say. So those are just the, these are the key levels that I'm tracking in terms of Bitcoin. Like major cash holding was entered down here in an October session. It was actually the first live trade analysis session I did. I highlighted a setup in Bitcoin, but I'm certainly watching some of these key levels as an opportunity to add and we have an upside objective at 75,000 trap. Ethan, I shared this one earlier in the week. Whilst we hold weekly range resistance here 37,56, look for a move down into this support zone now, the 27,95 as an opportunity to set long positions, watching for a bullish reversal pattern there. And then I can, then I think we can start to think about 46, 78, 127 extension of the corrective zone to the upside there in terms of ether. XRP, a little bit more, well, potentially for a more complex corrective move. But as you'll see, I'm basically looking at the same idea that whilst we hold this support area, so anything in the 80 to 63 level, I'd be acquiring XRP here. So there's a potential that we do chop around. But ultimately, once we get through this descending trend line resistance, we have a target and the sending trend line up at 230 depending upon how it trades 238 potentially. But those are the upside objectives. So I like to, I'm gonna be looking to acquire XRP in this support zone and then look for this trend channel to play out and get the test to the top side. Dominic Wan, bullish on this now, I'm looking for a break of this trend line here to play the inverse 10 shoulder scenario. So if we can get a close back through 644, 88, then I'm gonna be setting long positions and certainly thinking about a test of 658, 57 on the upside and potentially then back up into the yearly pit at 7,260. Dolly Yen got a potentially bullish scenario developing here. We're sitting at this ascending trend line support. If we can get a bullish reversal pattern today, then I'm gonna be looking to set long positions, get a break of this descending trend line resistance on 1033 up into the top sides of the diagonal here, 1,1250, and then we actually have an equality objective versus this swing structure. So we have our A up here, we have our B down here coming in at 113. So some pretty juicy upside targets there if we can get this bullish reversal to play out. Dolly Swiss breaking out of its descending trend resistance here. What I want to pay attention to Dolly Swiss is the potential that we are simply gonna clone the price action that we saw here. So we could get this, we could get an extension up into this resistance and then pull back again to consolidate before the market really decides on direction. So I'm a little bit wary of Dolly Swiss at the moment as we have this, you can see the similarities in terms of the price action mirroring market mirroring there. So keeping an eye on it, but no immediate action for me to take there. Prefer to play the Dolly Yen really and the Dolly Wan as the Dolly story at the moment. Looney watching for this move here. So we have an A, B and a C here, which would also give us an inverse head and shoulder scenario in terms of the Looney. So watching for any move back down into this 123.60 or 123.20 equality objective there versus this current swing high would be of interest, but nothing immediate to do there. Singapore Dollar, I'm looking at getting in on the long side here, looking for a break now of this descending trend line. So something around 134.50 will trigger me and on the long side, using a protective stop down here, 133.70 and certainly looking for a retest of the yearly pivot here, 136.88 and then an equality objective up to 138.20. So just looking for that confirmation on a break of this descending trend line resistance here and then that's going to be sufficient to have me on the long side in terms of the Singapore Dollar. Euro rolling over, looking for the euro to test into 117.55, that's going to be a key test. I've actually got a four hour chart here that I'm monitoring. You can see here, we have the potential to put in an inverse head and shoulders. So now let me just draw that in for you. We can find the tool, yep. So there's some nice time and price symmetry here with this euro. So this could be a flying the order for those dollar trades but we'll see which way it breaks. We can hold this support zone here, look for a move back through this descending trend line resistance. So something around 118.35 as a confirmation there to get in on the long side in terms of the euro dollar and then we can think about 120. So that's a set up to pay attention to on the four hour timeframe and you can see what it is that I'm tracking there on the daily. Euro yen, similarly inverse head and shoulders potential scenario here needs to hold this support 128.50s. I'm gonna bullish reversal pattern then. I think we can break to the upside here in the Euro yen alternative if we don't find the support there then I'd be thinking about downside objectives certain back into 126.50s turns the Euro yen. Euro sterling, still looking for the breakdown here to get us into this descending trend line support the 127 extension to complete but I think there will be a major wave for low and then we could see the potential for a decent recovery in terms of Euro sterling. So that's just one that's on the radar, Euro Aussie. You'll see if you're tracking this panel here you can see the ones that I've got coloured with either red or green or immediate opportunities that I'm looking to potentially trade the Ambers are just patterns that I'm watching. So this one for example, in the Euro Aussie if we can get down into this area then I would certainly be of interest but nothing immediate for me to do. Cable, had the long run last week in terms of cable and took, got triggered out on the reversal for plus 50. Seen a tricky position at the moment we're in kind of in this high volume area heavy rotation, no clear setup for me at the moment. Sterling yen had at this game on the short side yesterday and I got in it was running about 40 bits in profit and it stops to entry and got taken out. So if we can take out this 150, 70 area but I think we can look for a test of the 149 on the down side. So I'm gonna keep an eye on that sterling yen. Sterling Swiss conversely seeing some strength obviously in line with the Swiss weakness. If we can get a close here through this trend line and to get a pullback and test I think there's potential for sterling Swiss to extend minimum upside objective for a fifth wave there, 132, 50s. Let's wrap up through this now as we're running out of time. Aussie, nothing to do at the moment. No clear setup for me there. The Aussie yen however, again in line with a bunch of these ends, potential for that inverse head and shoulder scenario. I've got this marked up on the four hour here and took a quick look. So you can see it a little bit more clearly here. So I'm watching, if we can get back through here this 80, 30 level, I'll take a look at this on the long side and see if we've either completed a correction or we're gonna map this phase of price action here over late here but still plenty of opportunities. There are a hundred pits of range to play with. Aussie CAD, let's go to the daily on the Aussie CAD it's a little clearer. So again, thinking about this inverse head and shoulder scenario. So if we can get a bullish reversal here with the Aussie CAD I think we can see some upside in terms of that pair. The Aussie Kiwi, this is one I'm paying very close attention to. We're getting a bit of a rejection here now. So this is a chart hit that I posted we're testing this descending trend line support, projected versus this trend line to the upside. There's my guys and what's up in there. Bear with me, we've had a bit of a meltdown here. Let's see, coming back, yeah. Sorry about that. So yeah, so this Aussie Kiwi, we can get a move back through 103.30. I'm gonna be looking at this on the long side. I wanna pay attention to how we trade obviously the trend line resistance 103.70, but if we can get through there I think we've got the potential for a squeeze there to the upside, paying close attention to that one. Kiwi looking for a break of these tails here, 71.57 area. And then I think we can think about 73.30, monthly range resistance on the upside. Kiwi Yen, similar storage to the other ends I've been talking about testing this projected ascending trend line support. And if we get, if we get a test there, 77.30, bullish reversal 79.30 on the upside will be the initial objective. And last but not least, we have the CAD Swiss, similar story, inverse head and shoulders, watching for a move back through the pivot cluster here at 86.90 to set long positions. And again, then we've got a minimum fifth wave upside objective coming in at 93.03. So those are the charts that I'm watching, the setups that I'm tracking. It's really going to be important today to see, well today and tomorrow to see how these equity markets respond because they're going to be a driver then of risk sentiment as they have been of the past few weeks really. So want to really pay attention to see how we trade in the equity markets because that's really going to be a key factor in how this dollar plays out and how these yens trade as well. Okay, so does anyone have any questions? Is there a chart you'd like me to take a look at that I haven't covered? Equally, if you don't have a question and I've done a fairly good job of explaining things if you type an N in the chat box. So I know that we're all on the same page and I can wrap this session up. I do strongly suggest as well, take advantage of the free trials to the Ticknell Futures Group and the Trader Blueprint Strategy Group. Where can I find view up setting? I'll send you that separately, Banry. Any other questions? Okay, I shall take the silence as a no and we'll wrap this one up here. We will reconvene same time next week and like I said, take advantage of those free trials and those trusted groups. Okay, as always, trade the plan. Trade the plan. Most importantly, manage your risks. Until next time, thanks very much.