 Good afternoon. Welcome to CMC markets on Friday the 8th of January 2021. Happy new year to all of you and the first non-farm payrolls webinar of a new year. Ultimately, this this report is going to be the last of 2020. It's the December payrolls report. And we'll give us a fairly decent indication as to how much of a slowdown we saw in the US jobs market in the last month of 2020. And whether or not we've seen a dip into negative jobs growth in the same way that we saw for the ADB report earlier this week. Before we get started just a couple of disclaimers for your general consumption. I have to put these up just for the purposes of good housekeeping before we get underway. But hopefully what I'll try and do today is answer any questions that you might have about specific markets be very much technically based. Obviously I cannot give you any specific advice on timing of trades when to buy when to sell but I can certainly give an indication as to where I see where the key chart points are. Likely entry and exit points into a particular trade but certainly given the performance that we've seen so far this week. It doesn't really seem to matter too much how bad or how good the economic data is. The equity markets have continued to make new record highs. The DAX has made a new record high this week about 14,000 and looks set to continue to do so. FTSE 100 continues to play catch up. It was probably the worst performing European market this year down 13%. There are any number of reasons for that. One of which was the fact that we had such high concentration of oil and gas banking and retail stocks in the index. All three sectors which took an absolute shooing last year and are now only starting to show evidence of a little bit of a rebound. Nonetheless, expectations around today's payrolls report are fairly modest, shall we say. I mean I think one of the things that I've taken away from the recovery in the US economy from the first lockdown in April and May was that the unemployment rate has come down from 14.7%. In April to 6.7% in November. However, it does rather disguise the fact that the participation rate has also fallen quite sharply as well to 61.5 from 63.4. So for those of you who don't know what the participation rate is, I'll give you a little bit of a brief explanation on that. It reflects a number of people who have more or less given up looking for a new role. So 63.4% of the US population were looking for a new role at the beginning of last year that has fallen to 61.5%. So essentially almost 2% have given up looking for a new role because they're skeptical that they'll be able to find another one. What else? So I think a more accurate measure for looking at the US labor market is probably the under-employment rate, which currently sits at 12%. Now that was and is well below the April peak of 22.8%. But it's still well above the low that we saw at the end of 2019 when it was a 6.7%. So I think those sorts of numbers give you a very clear idea of how much catch up the US economy still has to do over the course of the next few months as we try and climb out of the economic hole that we're all in. Now, I think one of the things that has impressed me about the US economy, I think more than anything else, has been how quickly it's been able to rebound from those April May lockdowns with some decent jobs growth. However, that jobs growth has slowed quite starkly. If you look at, say, for example, the slowdown in the last few months, particularly since August, we've seen one and a half million jobs added back into the numbers. But since then, the pace of jobs growth has slowed sharply, 672,000 in September, 610,000 in October, 245,000 in November. All of those numbers were revised lower. Retail sales have slowed quite substantially. And also what we've seen this week is a fairly weak employment component in the ISM services number, which suggests that while we're seeing a really big rebound in the ISMs, these, I think, are particularly accurate indicators when it comes to measuring the jobs market and consumer spending. Certainly retail sales have shown significant evidence of slowing down quite sharply because of the spike infection rates that we saw through Thanksgiving that we are likely to see through December and the Christmas lockdowns. And obviously here in the UK, Germany and the rest of Europe, we're also seeing lockdowns likely to continue throughout the rest of the first quarter. So these payroll numbers, while they are important, probably won't make a blind bit of difference to where currencies are going and where stock markets are going. Because if it's a bad number, the likelihood of more fiscal stimulus is likely to increase. And if it's a good number, central banks have got their feet flat on the floor in any case. So it's a win-win, essentially. So really, then it's a question of where do you buy the dip on any given market. Now, while that may seem somewhat simplistic, one of the things that I have noted over the course of the past few days is the performance of the dollar. Now, for the past few months, it's been, you know, it doesn't take a genius to work out that we've been falling quite steadily. And in last month's payrolls report, I talked about the performance of the US dollar against the Chinese RIM NIMBY and how there was likely to see, likely to be further declines towards 645, 649. We've certainly overshot that, as shown by this particular chart here. I'm going to, I think, maximize that so you can see it an awful lot better. And that will give you a better indication of where we are. But certainly, I think there does appear to be some evidence that we might be seeing a little bit of a rebound in the RIM NIMBY. But what we really need to see is move back above 650 there to give us some sort of indication that the dollar's on a bit of a rebound back after a very, very long decline from the peaks that we saw all the way back in May. So we'll get rid of that. We'll also look at the CMC dollar index, which has a slightly lower euro rating and the slightly higher RIM NIMBY rating, which I think makes it a little bit more real reflective of the trade between the various currencies that trade against the dollar. The trouble with the dollar index is because it's such got a high concentration of euro, it's almost a proxy for euro dollar as a 57% waiting, which means that as far as trade flows between the US and China are concerned, it's completely irrelevant. It doesn't really work that well. So in the context of the dollar index, the CMC dollar index, there is potential here for a little bit of a rebound, a little bit of a flaw. Now that does need to be confirmed. So what we need to see is a little bit of a rebound and a rally up above this sort of 960 area through here. We're currently around about 949, 950. We're looking at the, looking at the where we were at the end of December. We're around about 952. So we're already at the highs of the year, which is a bit laughable because we're only sort of five days in, but having said that, it does appear to be a little bit of evidence. Maybe we've seen a bottom in the dollar. We've also seen that probably more realistically in the way the gold prices behaved over the course of the past few days. Look at this sharp move down in gold, which suggests that we could see a little bit of dollar strength and a bit of gold weakness. Very sharp move away from that resistance there. The likelihood is that we could head all the way back down here. So that sort of feeds into a narrative that we could well see a little bit of a stronger dollar over the course of the next two to three weeks. Now, this could all be for now. The only reason that gold prices have come off could be the fact that US Treasury yields on the long end have moving higher quite sharply. That's very well illustrated by the fact that we've seen the US 10 year yield this week alone spark spike high quite sharply. We look at this Bloomberg chart here. Let me just close that gold chart for you. Now it's kind of disappeared. Let me just pull that back. There it is. We look at this US Treasury yield chart. We've moved higher quite sharply. I'm breaking above this series of highs through here. And that would suggest we're probably going to see a move to 120 on the 10 year yield. Now, if we do see a move higher in yields, that's probably going to make on the margins stock market slightly less attractive. Not an awful lot, but certainly I think it could prompt a little bit of dollar strength move back in to the dollar. It's not likely to prompt the Fed to talk about tightening monetary policy, but I think it could shift inflation expectations higher and as such give the underlying dollar a little bit of a bid. So let's look at the numbers in any case. Let's go to the news and analysis section and select the market calendar and all the data can be found there in the news and analysis drop down. Now what I normally do with these is I usually set alerts on them so that the numbers pop up so that I don't forget about them. We've also got the Canadian jobs report as well. And we're also expecting a negative dollar CAD number of minus 27 and a half thousand again. I really don't expect that to move the market that much as far as the Canadian dollar is concerned that's been doing very, very well on the back on on the back of the move higher in the oil price. So I think, you know, in terms of that, I think the oil price is also looking a little bit on the top side. I think there are risks that if the oil price moves too much higher from where we are now, that could actually pose a little bit of a risk to the move higher that we're currently seeing in stock markets. It certainly will pose a risk to any economic rebound, demand concerns notwithstanding because of the lockdowns. So those are the various numbers that I think the one particular number we've got 71 K as a as a as a benchmark for Reuters Bloomberg are looking at around about 50 K. We could see a downward revision on the November numbers. At the moment there's currently at 245 K. I've gone for a bit of a punt just for the hell of it and say I reckon that will probably get a minus number of around about 225,000. I don't know what I was thinking there. And I promise I haven't had any beer or a lager at lunchtime or anything else that's likely to dull my senses. I just thought I'd throw it out there because ultimately I think whatever the number is, it's not really going to make that much difference to what is likely to come down the pipe from a new Democrat administration. Post the 20th of January. So I think anyone looking for a big, big expansion in US fiscal policy will be disappointed because while the Democrats were able to swing those two Georgia seats to them, the split in the Senate is still 50 50. So that means Kamala Harris is the vice president will have any casting vote, but that doesn't necessarily mean that all Democrats aren't conservatives with a small C you will have Democrats across the political divide from the who are very much of the opinion that they want to green new deal and throw money at renewable energy green and everything else. And you've also got more fiscally conservative Democrats who won't countenance a large scale spending splurge. So while we will get we are likely to get a much more expensive fiscal policy from the Democrats than we would from the Republicans. I don't expect the difference to be that huge. We will get $2,000 stimulus checks I think that's pretty much baked in. And I think what is also baked in is we will get a significant investment in green and renewable energy and that's why you've seen such big gains in renewable energy stocks over the course of the past 12 months if you look at our energy basket for example in our various baskets that we have for various sectors. You can see we've got big tech we've got China tech we've got the most was we've also got oil and gas remote lifestyle renewable energy. We look at renewable energy and how that's performed over the course of the last 12 months it's the yellow line here. That is actually blown everything else into the weeds including big tech which is still done very very well. Since the beginning of 2020, but it's been blown into the weeds by renewables. That is likely to continue to remain the case over the course of the next 12 months and if you want to find out about energy baskets and other baskets and their wrappers if you like sips is a probably a closest comparison I could make. They're quite useful for diversifying risk across various different sectors. Back to what I was talking about before looking at the dollar trade and Euro dollar in particular. I think if you know any any sort of dip back to 122 30 and the lows today or 122 is likely to find a steady stream of buyers if we do drop below 122, then it's likely we're going to fall all the way back here. Certainly this bearish reversal on the candles would appear to suggest on the basis of probabilities that we've seen a little bit of a short term top around about 120 around about 123 50 in Euro dollar. So, I think for me we could be starting to see a little bit of a rebound in the US dollar if my chart analysis is up to scrutiny. Certainly we are due a little bit of a pullback over the course of the next few days in the Euro dollar. And certainly on the basis of this candle here, which could be argued is a bit of a reversal a move below 122 could see could see his head back towards around 121 121 and a half. As I say, I'm open to questions with respect to any of the markets that I'm looking to cover. As I say with respect to equity markets in general, I still expect the FTSE 100 to head higher over the course of the next few days and weeks, it's significantly underperformed. So, this is the course of the past 12 months, which means I'm very much in the realms of by the dip on the FTSE pretty much by the dip on stock markets in general but at these sorts of levels I think there's a risk heading into the weekend. We could see a little bit of some of the froth get taken off. Anyway, we've got the numbers coming up shortly. We've got the active number 50,000 expected for non farm payrolls unemployment rate. Unemployment rate expected to come in around about 6.7% to say the numbers are out shortly. And I'll just keep quiet now as and here we go so 6.7% for the unemployment rate. The US payrolls, the Canada payrolls there, non farms minus 140. We've seen a decent revision higher on the November payrolls number 336. So, essentially, that's a fairly, even though it's a rubbish number, it's going to concentrate the minds of politicians on Capitol Hill that the US economy is starting to slow down extremely sharply. And needs more fiscal support. So that should be on the margins, fairly supportive of stock markets going forward. We're off the highs in the S&P at the moment of the day, which means that for me there is a risk we could slip back lower. But over the course of the next few days and weeks, I don't expect to see any slowdown to what we've seen so far this year. So I'm going to draw this little line through here here. That's a little uptrend for that we've broken out of that sideways consolidation that I had on my chart from last, from last month. And if I project these moves up, then I think it's quite likely that we could see. I don't want to have done that wrong. Wait a second. Do that again. These Fibonacci extensions are quite useful when it comes to projecting price moves up and down. So if we go right when it's doing that wrong, should be projecting it higher. Let me just have another go at that. So taking this triangle here projecting it higher, I've come at a minimum price objective around about $38.50 in the short to medium term. So I still expect further gains on the S&P. But again, buying it here, it's a little bit of a pun. It is a bit expensive. I wouldn't be comfortable buying at these sorts of levels. I'll be looking for a little bit of a pullback down to around about $37.50 and trading it higher from there. It depends on your risk profile, I would suggest. But certainly at these sorts of levels, it's a little bit rich for my blood. But certainly in over the course of the next few days, I would expect us to continue to move higher for the S&P 500. With respect to the Germany 30, I'll talk about the Hang Seng in a minute. I've just been asked about the Hang Seng. I will talk about that. I haven't forgotten you in that regard. Again, above the $14,000 level on the DAX, really need to consolidate above that. I am nervous, if I'm honest with you, at buying equities at these sorts of levels or buying the DAX at this sort of level. It is a little bit, shall we say, the air is a little bit thin. As I say, I'm still fairly bullish on dips. But at the highs of the day and the week, I'd be a little bit hesitant about being aggressively along at these sorts of levels, particularly despite the fact that we've seen a fairly poor payrolls report. And the likelihood is we're going to get more fiscal stimulus going forward. There's the breaking news alert for that. So let me get rid of that. Let me get rid of that. And that and that. Okay, so starting with the Hong Kong 50, I got asked about that. So I will do that seeing as I was asked about that first. It's only fair. Well, there's certainly potential to go through 28,000. That's the peaks that we saw back in February 2020. There's certainly a decent barrier there. Again, it looks a bit frothy of those sorts of levels. We've had a good start to 2021. I'll be a little bit hesitant piling in at these sorts of level. I think there's an awful lot of exuberance at the moment, which is making me a little bit cautious about looking for further extended gains at this point in time. But certainly in the context of where we've come from, we've seen some good gains. If we look at it on a weekly chart, that'll give us a better indication of where we are above the 200 week moving average, which is very, very positive. If we then extrapolate that out with respect to trying to draw in some trend lines. I'm a big fan of trying to keep it as simple as possible. We have broken out there. It's not a particularly useful line that because it's only got two touches. So I'm reluctant to pay too much store by it. That one's a better line. It's got three or four touches on it. With respect to trade lines, it's important. More touches you have, the more significant the line is. Some lines, even though they're longer term, only have two touches. They're what I would designate weak lines. Therefore, any break above them is likely to be fairly insignificant. If you've got, say, three, four or five touches on a line and you get a break through it, then the break is slightly more significant. So we're starting to head into a little bit of resistance around about 28,000 or just there or there above it. And we've seen a similar sort of move up to 28,000 here as well. So I would suggest based on the weekly and the daily charts that we're looking a little bit frothy on the hang saying, and we could be due a little bit of a pullback in the short to medium term, just on the basis of and the fact that the oscillators are a little bit overbought or oversold. So if you are long, these sorts of levels might be an idea to just take some money off the table in the short term and then wait for a dip and then feed it back in again. Again, it's about managing your risk. You don't have to be all in and all out. You can be, you know, one or the other. You can just trip feed money in and then take and then drip feed money out. I think gold, I talked about it a little bit. We've seen a big, big sell off over the course of the past few days. And I think we're going to see further weakness going forward. That really aggressive sell off there on this candle here. Let me just blow that up for you. This really big sell off here on this candle on Wednesday does not bode well for gold gains in the short to medium term. Don't get me wrong. I'm still fairly bullish on gold. But if you look at where we've been over the course of the past few months, we haven't gone anywhere. We're in a little bit of a range trade. The top of that range is anywhere between 1970, 1965. Look at these highs here as well, Phil. You've got a series of highs through here in September, also here in November. And we've also failed again here in January. So for me, it's really about, you know, what's it doing? And at the moment, it's just trade. It's just trend. It's trading in a sideways range. It's not really doing anything, which means that it will probably continue to do so for quite some time. And the likelihood is we're going to head lower probably back towards 1848, 1850. But with that, but still respecting the range that we've been in over the course of the last few days, we're probably going to find a little bit of support on this red line here. Why? Because it was support back in September, but also in early November, before we broke below it, before rebounding and then heading back to 1970. So with gold at these sorts of levels over the course of the next few days, I would expect, let's not to say it will happen, I would expect gold to drift back towards the 200-day moving average. Okay, Bitcoin and Tesla. What is going on with Bitcoin and Tesla? I'll come back to that in a minute. Interested on your view on sterling dollar, will this hold back the FTSE 100? You know, the relationship between the FTSE 100 and the Pound, it's complicated. I think the Pound can go to 140. I'm still bullish on the Pound. I have been for quite some time. You can read about my views on the Pound on the news and analysis section of the website where it says Insights after sterling dollar hits 35 year low has sterling turned a corner. I think we'll see 140 on the Pound over the course of the next few months, maybe even a move to 145. Now that obviously means a weaker dollar, but it only means a weaker dollar against the Pound. It doesn't mean a weaker dollar against anything. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be weaker against anything else. I think Euro sterling is the potential to go back to 85. So that would help put a floor under the Pound and the dollar could still go up against the Euro. It just wouldn't go down against the Pound. So yeah, basically I think there's less of a correlation between the FTSE 100 and the Pound than there has been so much in the past. I mean, if you look at where the Pound is relative to everything else, if we look at the Pound here, we've broken above this long-term downtrend from the highs that we saw all the way back in 2007. And if we take a measured move from the highs in 2007 to the lows at 114 back in March last year, we've now broken back above this series of peaks through here and are finding a little bit of resistance at 137, which coincidentally happens to be a minimum retracement of this entire down move to 23.6. Now, I don't set a great deal of store by 23.6. I think it's a rubbish Fibonacci retracement. But what is interesting is that this low here from February 2018 was around about 137.12. And where did we stop earlier this week? 137.04. So within 10 points. Now, when you're talking of a move between 2 and 114, 10 points is neither here nor there. It's a rounding error. So we've got a big barrier at around about 137, 138. And it's going to need something significantly substantive to move it through there. But certainly in the context of cable dips, I'd certainly be looking to buy cable around about 135. Certainly, if you look at it in the context of this daily chart here, we've been in an uptrend pretty much since May last year. I don't see that changing anytime soon. We've also got the 50-day moving average, which has seen every single move lower find some very decent buying interest. If you look at the shadows on those candles there, they're fairly extensive. So there's still, I think, an awful lot of what I would call scepticism about the pound going higher. That for me is good. That means there's not an awful lot of long positions out there. So that for me suggests that the potential for a move higher is quite high. Now, at the moment, what is worrying is that we've seen a little bit of a bullish reversal here, which might mean that we could see a little bit of a dip back towards 135 in the short term. We could well see a rebound there, and we could well head back towards 137.12, 137 area, that sort of area in and around there. And that's going to be a tough nut to crack in the short to medium term. But I would still expect that to give way at some point over the course of the next few weeks and months. I'm still bullish sterling while we're above the 50-day moving average, and I don't anticipate that changing. When the facts change, I change my mind. But at the moment, I'm still very much buying dips for cable. Euro sterling, you've asked me about Euro sterling. Well, I'll talk about Euro sterling. We're in a range, have been for months. This is your range for Euro sterling. Big, big support at 88.60. I still think we're going to head back there while we're below 91. If cable breaks below 135, we'll go back to the 50-day moving average. That in summary is what I think, because it'll trigger a load of stops, and we'll head back towards 135. But even if it does, we're still in an uptrend. Euro sterling, if we drop below this series of loads through here, which is around about 89.80, give or take, 89.70, 89.80, then I think there's a good chance we'll come back to protest 88.60. That is huge. This 88.60 level is massive. If we break below that, then we could well see further move down towards these loads here at around about 86.90. But at the moment, for me, it's range trade, and that's the way you should play it. Because essentially markets trend 70% of the time. Range 70% of the time. They trend for the rest of the time. I don't know why I said that. So essentially markets range 70% of the time, and that's basically what's happening here on Euro sterling. We've range traded since June, gone precisely nowhere. Brexit on, Brexit off, Brexit risk on, and that's basically been the trade. Now that Brexit is out of the way, hallelujah. At least I don't have to talk about that anymore. We can start to now focus on the respective strengths and weaknesses of not only the monetary policy response of the European central bank, but also whether or not the Bank of England is going to go negative on interest rates. Personally, I don't think they will. They talk a good game on it. But ultimately, I don't expect them to go down that route. Simply because I think it will be logistically more, will do more harm than good. That for me should be sterling positive, as should the fact, as long as the UK government doesn't mess it up, the rolling out of the vaccine should mean that the UK economy should start to exhibit much better bounceback ability than say, for example, Europe. That's not to say that events in Europe won't affect us, they will. Europe has still got to deal with a litany of problems of itself, of its own. And let's not also forget that we have a German election coming up later this year, and we have a Dutch election coming up in March. And then we've got a French election in March of 2022. So there are, there's political risk, as well as a whole host of concerns about the European banking sector and non-performing loans there as well. So there's a lot to ponder for Europe as we look ahead to 2021. So that's euro sterling. I'm still very much sell the rallies on euro sterling, looking for a move back to 8860. I'm going to cover Bitcoin and Tesla in a minute, Phil. So I'll get to you. Let's talk about silver. That's probably going to follow gold in looking a little bit softer. Decent support around about $26. We rebounded off that earlier today. I think as long as we can hold above that, we should continue to remain fairly well supported. We can also draw on this particular chart a nice little line through these lows. And about there, there are thereabouts. So keep an eye on $26, Thomas, because I think there's going to be a key level on silver going forward. If we break below that, then we could see a little bit of a move back towards around about $25 an ounce. Okay. Tesla, the old favorite. So let's just open my car manufacturers watch list. I don't know why I put it in there because is it really a car manufacturer? I'm not sure really, or is it a tech company? I don't even know where to start with this one. I mean, it's by the dip, but to be quite honest, I think it looks as frothy as hell. It is going to open higher today in the pre-market. It was around about 844, 845, but at some point the froth is going to come off it. Let me just double check to see whether or not it's still at 844 in the pre-market. I'm just going to open my Bloomberg Tesla. Move it out of the way. Here we go. Right. Let's just move that over. See this here? Tesla is at 854 in the pre-market. So we're going to gap higher on the open when US markets open in around about 45 minutes. We closed at 816 yesterday. We're going to open around about 850 when trading starts in around about 40, 42 minutes time at 230. Yes, so Tesla, too rich for my blood fill. You're a braver man than me. Bitcoin is only available to premium clients due to FCA regulation that says we cannot make it available to retail clients. So Bitcoin, it's around about 41,000. Looking that on a weekly chart, ever since we broke 20,000, it's just been pretty much one way. I'm not even going to attempt to try and extrapolate a move for this because, to my mind, it's not trading on technical. Well, it traded on technicals when it broke above 20,000. After that, it's really just hold on, strap yourselves in. If you're long, well, you know, flip a coin, it could go either way. Fear of missing out is driving this trade. And I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. But yeah, I mean, Phil, you'd have to be really brave to short Tesla at this sort of level. I mean, that's not to say that it can't go lower from here, but it could go up $100 first. You know, and that is the risk that you run. You know, I think you can be rational for, you can be particularly rational in shorting Tesla. But if you've been trying to pick the top in Tesla for the last 12 months, you'd be, you'd have probably lost your shirt and pretty much everything else besides. There is absolutely no way that Tesla can be valued, you know, $800 billion, no way. Or however much it's being valued at. It's just an absolutely bonkers valuation. It produced less than 500,000 cars last year. And yet it's valued at more than the entire auto market and Toyota, the biggest car company in the world in terms of units sold. That's an even better comparison. Is technology or a technology company, Tesla or a technology company or a car company? It's only profitable because of the fact that it's able to sell credits. It's not profitable by virtue of selling cars. So that for me, you know, with my rational head on, I can't make a case of being long of it. Anyway, FTSE 100 is my last one. Okay, obviously this is a daily chart. This is the move that we've seen over the course of the last few days. Decent break above $6,600. This long shadow here suggests that upside momentum is starting to wane a little bit. And for me, I'd look for a dip back to around about this area of support between 6,600 and 6,620 for a move back towards the 7,000 level. My end of year target for the FTSE 100 is 6,500. We've met that. My end of quarter target for the FTSE 100, the end of March is 7,000. I'm sticking by that. I stand by that. So for me, I think you're looking for Michael Burry has been short a while yet. Well, he's probably got deeper pockets than you, Phil. Yeah. Has anyone seen the big short? Anyone who hasn't, it's well worth a watch. I certainly wouldn't want his blood pressure. That's for sure. So yeah, basically still fairly bullish overall on equity markets at the moment, but very much a case of buy the dips at these sorts of levels. Quite a big week next week as well. We've got the start of US Bank earning season. We've got JP Morgan, city group and Wells Fargo releasing their latest numbers on on the 15th a week from today. JP Morgan has said it was going to be buying back 30 billion dollars of its own shares in the first three months of this year. US banks can resume buybacks and dividends as long as they are profitable. That's what the Federal Reserve said at the end of last year. So in terms of US banks, they can issue dividends as long as they are profitable over the course of the previous four quarters. So I'll be keeping an eye on them over the course of the next week or so. We've got China trade numbers due out also over the course of next week. And we've also got a whole host of earnings announcements as well. We've got preliminary German GDP UK GDP for November and services output for November. We've also got base book US CPI US retail sales for December. That's going to be a decent number. I want to say a decent number. I mean it's going to be a decent indicator of consumer demand next week as well. So got a fairly big week for economic data. Big week US earning season starts. We've got first we've got the latest Christmas update from Tescos. That's likely to be a decent one. And a whole host of other retailers as well. Just been asked why will the FTSE 100 dip to 6620? I'm not saying that it will not saying that at all. I'm saying there's a risk that it might. And if it does, then that's that would be a decent place to buy it. There are no absolutes in this. I'm just saying at these sorts of levels. The market looks a little bit frothy ahead of the weekend. You could see a little bit of pairing of gains that we've seen this week. If we look at a weekly candle. Right, we've come from 6,000. 460 the end of the previous week. To 6,800. We come, you know, we've put in the best weekly performance since November. So we could see a period of consolidation. Now that could see us dip back to 6620. I don't think we'll see a dip. Back below that. But it's about timing. More than anything else. So you could buy the FTSE now. For a move to 7,000. And be right. In four to six weeks time. But it could fall back to 66 that 6600 first. I'm saying there is a risk. That it could fall back to 6600. I'm not saying that it will. So I'm hoping that clarification. Sort of make sense to you. So. You know, I think, think for me, you've got to be patient with these things. You can't say for certain. In any way, shape or form that the market will fall back to 6600. But if it does so 6620, but if it does, then I would look to buy in at those sorts of levels. I will wait for the market to come to me. I have put some analysis. You're asking me now. The numbers you say 6620, there should be some analysis behind that. There is. Look at these highs here. The high from the 10th of December. Look at the high from say, for example, the 29th of December. You've got 6640, 6620. I always build in a little bit of an overshoot on a move down. So previous highs. Connect the support on a pullback. So I've looked at the series of highs through here and extrapolated 6620. That's my thinking behind that. The series of highs through here. That's why I use 6620. Hopefully that makes sense. Any other questions, ladies and gentlemen, have I missed any one of those? Hopefully I've answered all of your questions. I apologize if I haven't. I'm just scrolling down now to make sure that I've got everyone. I've got everyone. And I think I have. Oh, yes. I got asked about China U.S. trade deals improve and positive effect on the S&P. Listen, with respect to the trade relationship between China and China, I think I've answered all of those questions. That's not going to change. The Biden administration is equally as hostile to China as Trump. It's just that I have a different way of approaching it. The tariffs aren't going to suddenly get dropped. They're going to remain in place. If they do get dropped, there's got to be a quid pro quo. And I think that that's a very important point here dropped, there's got to be a quid pro quo. And I think that is going to be the biggest difference that you see between China and the US with respect to trade policy. It's going to be more about tone and substance rather than the way that Trump approaches China. It's going to be less bombastic, less confrontational, but no less difficult. So hopefully that makes sense. Sorry about that, Cathal. I missed that particular thing out. Is it too late for Ali Barbar content? Let's have a look at Ali Barbar, shall we? Just quickly. I aim to please. So we're looking at the USADR, I'm assuming. On a technical basis, that looks soft. And to be quite honest, given Jack Ma's relationship with Chinese authorities at the moment, I can't see them cutting in too much in the way of slack in the short to medium term. So on that basis, the fact that we've broken below the 200-day moving average and we've broken the uptrend that we've been in place, I think there's a good chance that we could continue to drift back lower. I think it really depends an awful lot on the relationship that Jack Ma has. And obviously the anti-PO as well. The anti-PO is likely to be decent bellwether as to whether or not. If that comes to market, then you could well see Ali Barbar shares start to show signs of bottoming out. But at the moment, we're pretty much in a downtrend here. Let's just draw a line through here. Here we go. So we've got resistance around about the 200-day moving average and that trend line there. So in terms of Ali Barbar, I'd certainly be looking to sell the rally on that. I move back to that line and the 200-day moving average with a tight stop loss on that with a tight stop loss. Okie dokie. Hopefully that's everything, everybody. It's been a slightly longer session than usual, but I hope you found it useful. I always enjoy these sessions. They're always instructive for me as they are for you, I hope. You'll be getting an email in around about 24 hours asking for feedback. I would be enormously grateful if you could fill that in with any feedback, constructive or otherwise. That would be enormously helpful because at the end of the day, these sessions are for your benefit. In the meantime, have a happy new year, enjoy your weekend, and I'll speak to you all same time, same place a month from now. If there's any feedback on other webinars that you'd like us to do, I'll be more than happy to try and look at other webinars. The only reason that we don't do more of them is because we don't get an awful lot of take-up for them. If I can get 50, 60 attendees, I'm more than happy to do them, but if we're only getting a handful, it's just not worth the time and effort. So thanks very much for listening, ladies and gentlemen. Have a great day, happy new year, and have a great weekend.