 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com. Weekend Up They Show, hope everybody is doing well, hope everybody is having a great weekend. If you are brand new to the channel, be kindly, support the channel, like, share, subscribe, should take you half a second of your life. And in return, I'll try to give you the most unbiased approach on a day to day basis. No guessing, no forecasting, not trying to be right, not trying to be a genius, just trying to sort out the data and trade on it on a micro and macro basis. This video I think is going to be, I wouldn't say important, but I think it could be important in the way the market reacts on a near term basis. And I want to talk about strictly facts, right? Again, no opinions. So here are the facts. Okay, we've been on a pretty huge run in the market for a very long time. And in that run, we've been hugging the 20 day moving average for a very, very long time. That's been the trend line. If you guys remember two weeks ago, we lost the 20 day moving average. And the whole premise of the PS60 theory is it's the premise of stocks trade from supply to supply on the way up. And when they lose to the demand, the stocks trade from demand to demand. So about two weeks ago on, let's see here, on August the 2nd, we lost the 20 day moving average. And we said there's a high probability, excuse me, that the longer we will go and build below the 20 day moving average, we were going to get down to the 50 day moving average. And a lot of traders, especially new traders, wow, it's by the dip, by the dip, that's cool, right? Some of you guys are doing this thing, you know, 22 months, I'm doing this thing 24 years going on a quarter of a century next year. So this isn't really something new to me. This isn't something really exciting or thought provoking. It's just something that I've seen many, many times. And a lot of new traders, when they haven't gone through all the battles and wars and have the scars for it, they're usually, it's not their fault that they're unprepared. They just haven't went through it yet, right? So we lost the 20 day moving average and two weeks go by. And if you've been watching this broadcast the last couple of weeks, well, the goal was to see what happens when we hit the 50 day moving average. We hit the 50 day moving average a couple of times this week on Wednesday and Thursday session, right? These are the facts. During that time, the market sold off on a CPI number, sold off the next day on a PPI number, and sold off the following day on Friday, which was the last trading day of the week on the Michigan sentiment. And at the same time, close the first time below the 50 day moving average. Everybody see that guys? That's the light blue line. Now let's rewind, right? Again, we're only speaking facts, okay? This is not something that you should feel some sort of way. These are just numbers on the scoreboard that happened, that played out, and it's part of history. So let's kind of look at the scenario where we are now, where we were going back to January, February, March, April the 8th, right? April the 8th, we closed below, April the 8th of 2022, we closed below the 50 day moving average, right? And for basic technical analysis, anything above the 50 day moving average is bullish, anything below the 50 day moving average is bearish, right? So we're not even going even further back. So we lost the 50 day moving average. And what happened next for that, obviously you guys know for the following calendar year, the NASDAQ 100 got just absolutely destroyed. We were down 31%, right? These are the facts again. This is not something that, you know, it's just an opinion that these are facts. So let's fast forward, right? We established that anything below the 50 day moving average is bearish or at least a sell signal. So now let's fast forward, okay? January the 7th, okay? Now why was January the 7th a very, very important level, a very important level for the stock market is we reclaimed back, okay? We reclaimed back, and you'll see it here in a second, we reclaimed back the 50 day moving average right over here. Everybody see it, right? So January 7th, actually excuse me, January 11th, we reclaimed the 50 day moving average, okay? Below the 50 day bearish. And what happened when we reclaimed the 50 day moving average on January 11th? Everybody knows we had an absolute brilliant, brilliant rally for the next eight months and the NASDAQ 100 went up about 40%. So below bearish above bullish. So here we are present day, right? Here we are present day. This is the first close below the 50 day moving average. And honestly, the 100 day moving average really doesn't, you know, it's not really that big of a brahmer. The fact is that we closed below the 50 day. Here's what has to happen, okay? Number one, we know that the catalyst to take the market higher short term is starting to shrink. We already started talking about that and covering those details in nauseam once we started losing the 20 day, right? Earning season is almost done. All the big heavyweights are done. They reported earnings. The only one left is NVIDIA, right? They reported the reports I think either next week or the week after. That's literally the only one left. And I've been saying this for the last two, three days. I don't see how if Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, Tesla couldn't save the market. Well, how is, you know, how is NVIDIA going to do so? Maybe it does me. We don't know. Okay. But what we do know is this is the first close over the below the 50 day moving average. So here's what has to happen. Okay. This is not an opinion. These are facts. The bulls in the next two days, they have to reclaim the 50 day. It's not a death sentence right away. As soon as we lose the 50 day moving average, that's it automatically go down every single day. Although 2022, 85% of the action to the downside once we lost the 50 day were red days. Okay. So it doesn't mean we have to go down every single day. It doesn't mean we have to go down Monday. Here's what the bulls need to do. Okay. In the next two days, Monday and Tuesday, let's just even stretch it out to Wednesday. There's a two three day window that the bulls have to reclaim the 50 day moving average. So they have to reclaim back the 369 on the close on the queues. Okay. If that happens, then we'll start grinding back and there's a lot of supply here. Then we'll start grinding back into the 10 day moving average. Hopefully reclaim the 10, hopefully reclaim the 20. And the next thing you know, we're 52 week highs again. Right. That's what the bulls have to do. The bearers have to do is continue to build the below the 50 day. If you guys remember, once we lost the 20 day moving average and we started building below the 20 day moving average, the longer we couldn't rally the higher probability we were going to go down to the next support. And that's exactly what happened. We tested the 50 day back to back days Friday on the mission, Michigan sentiment. We finally gave it up. So for the bears, they have to start building a ceiling, right? They have to start building a ceiling below the 50 day moving average. And the longer they start building below the 50 day moving average, the higher probability we're going to start stepping down to very big areas. And again, I'm not fear mongering. If you're a brand new trader, just listen to what I'm saying. Okay. I'm a Delta neutral trader, which basically means I don't care if the market is long buys, if the market is short buys, but I don't close my eyes and approach them the day with eyes wide shut. I'm very aware of what's happening. And my game plan and my course of action is based on that level. So if you're freaking out right now, no, that's it. You're an idiot. The market's going to go higher. I hope it does. It's just so much easier to trade in the bull market. The market makes you right. But this isn't my first rodeo. And if you guys are watching me since even going back from 2022, it's a very specific way you approach a south side scenario. Again, we don't know if we're there yet, but these are something we just want everybody to get comfortable with, to get used to be prepared. The last thing you want to do is close your eyes and start being a baby and ranting and raving how it's not going to happen. Yeah, I understand you don't want it to happen, but nobody wanted a 31% to find a NASDAQ 100 that was long bias investors in 2022 either. So again, the information that I'm trying to provide today is strictly there so you are prepared. So you're not trading like it's a bull market. You're not trading that's a buy the dip scenario. A buy the dip scenario only works were above demand where we're above supply, right? Everybody understand it? And it's trending market. You don't buy the dip when we're below the 50 day moving average. It's a death sentence. Again, just ask anybody who bought anything the first two, three months of 2022 what happened. Yeah, maybe they survived and they're here to talk about it because the market did rally it a year later, but it's very, very unpleasant. It's very, very uncomfortable to go with it as it's happening. Because again, you see your assets and you see your money just shrinking every single day. So we just want everybody to be calm, right? Take a deep breath, understand what potentially is in front of you so you can make an actionable game plan, whether it's your portfolio, just in portfolio or just being a trader and active participant in the market on a day to day basis. So if the bear start building down below the 50 day moving average, which again, we closed day one on Friday, then again, if you believe in the theory the stock straight from supply to supply and demand to demand, then you have room all the way down to 350. Right guys? And again, you won't get there on a straight line, but the longer it keeps on building below the 50 day, here's your pot of gold. Just the same way we lost a 20 day moving average. And I said, you know, there's a high probability we're going to fade back into the 50 day moving average. Right. So here we are. So the longer we stay below the higher probability of weeks and weeks and weeks go by, we will get down to this 350 level. These are the facts. Okay. Again, this is not fear mongering. This is not an opinion. I don't have an agenda. Again, I trade both sides of the market. I encourage all traders. Okay. All traders to really make that decision. And now you if you didn't make that choice in 2022. Now you have that choice to rewrite history and ask yourself a question. Do I want to be a trader? Okay. Who buys stocks in a bull market? Or do I want to be a trader? Right. Just a trader period. And this is what this is what an honest self reflection type of conversation you have to have with yourself. Because if you're not prepared, you are going to slowly bleed and nobody wants, nobody wants that. What doesn't work in a sell side scenario? Okay. There's no such things as breakouts. Okay. There's no such thing as a breakout when the market is underneath supply. There's no such thing as buying premium when buying premium on calls. When the market is underneath supply because every single rally gets stuffed into supply. That's the whole point of dead cat bounces. They continue to make lower highs. And even though we nobody's saying the market's going to go straight down on one line, but this is how a sell side scenario works. It goes down two days. Dead cat bounces the third goes down another three days. Dead cat bounces the fourth. And that's exactly what we saw here when we lost the 20 day. Right. We lost the 20 day. We kept on building. Right. We went up, went down, went up, down, down, down, down, down. Right. That's exactly how a sell side scenario works also, which is very, very important to understand. This is something that brand new traders are unfortunately not prepared for. You know, people sitting there as the market's going down and they look at it and they say, wow, look at this stock. It's standing out. The way I look at the market is it's not the one stock that's standing out. It's the 20,000 stocks that are not. I don't believe in the theory that you concentrate on the stock, the sum of the parts. I am much more familiar with the case that you are concentrating on the whole. And that's the way I look at it. Because if you do look and if history has proven you right for years and years and years, the one piece of data that is very, very important to understand. You can have a stock that's up in the morning. There's a high probability because the whole overall parts of the market are weak. There's a point that that stock is going to fade at some point. So the way I approach a sell side scenario, in case again we have one again, so far the data is telling us we might. I look at the whole. I don't care that Netflix one day is green. I care that Meta, Amazon, Tesla and the video, you know, Roku, Microsoft and anything else is red. Right. I don't care about this one stock that's standing out. I care about the other 10 that are not. Much easier to trade with the momentum that traded without it. Because eventually if the market keeps on going lower that day, all the buyers that were chasing and trying to catch the one stock that is standing out. They get tired. They get frustrated. And next thing you know, bids disappear. So it's very, very important to understand the approach to the market. Always stick to the whole, not the sum of the parts. And I think a lot of new traders where they got burnt was during 2022. We're listening to other novice traders who were basically trading maybe a year or two year before them. They never went through a sell cycle for more than two weeks. And they kept on buying a dip. They kept on buying the dip and then they realized they're buying the dip in no man's land. And again, unless you're trading 100 share lots, 20 share lots, 30 share lots, it's very, very tough to be in a trade. That's 30, 40, 60, 80% against you. And if you look at 2022, that's exactly what happens. Stocks like UPST went down 80%. Stocks, you know, yet so many names. I'm just using UPSC as an example. Yet so many names were 40, 50, 60, 80% off their highs that it's very, very tough to ignore the scenario that you had a chance to prepare for a sell side scenario. And you did not and pretended it didn't exist. You close your eyes. You go and I like a little child. Again, this business is for adults. Okay. And I want and I don't care if you're 20 years old, 15 years old, you know, 250 years old, God bless, right? This business is for adults. Dults make adult decisions every single day and they make decisions that they could live with. But if you don't understand all the facts, if you don't understand all the moving parts within a cycle, within an interval, you can have a very, very tough time trading in any environment. Absolutely. When the market goes higher every single day, everybody jokes around this market, you know, you know, 100 point updates, the new red day, ha ha. And it's cool. It's great. You could buy stocks, whatever you want. You could hold them overnight. The price action will make you right. But when the win this change, we start taking down technical, technical damage. You really have to understand what you're doing. Because if you're not, if you're only talking about buy, buy, buy the dip bears will never learn again, reference what happened in 2020. Nobody's talking about the, you know, the, the apocalypse, the Armageddon for the market going into Monday. But you guys, you have to be prepared. Okay. You have to be prepared and you have to put yourself in a position of strength. Because again, if you are going into this trading week and the market does not take back, if the bulls do not take back the 50 day moving average by Wednesday and we start building, putting in lower highs underneath the 50 day moving average, you're going to be a very, very, you know, uncompromising situation that nobody wants to talk about. But before that happens, just listen to the data. Listen to what the market's telling you. Watch the price action. Again, we went down again. We keep on going lower on the queues now to the last several weeks. All the data has been faded, right? CPI, we gapped up 250 points. We gave it all back. The PPI, we gapped up. We gave it all back. We gave it all back. We gapped down on Friday. Michigan set them and came down and the market closed at below the 50 day moving average. These are the facts, guys. Again, I can only give you my opinion next year. I'm doing this nearly, well, next year it's going to be a quarter of a century in this business. I'm 49 years old. That's a long time. Okay. I'm doing this for more than half of my life. This isn't the first time I've seen it. It's probably not going to be the last time I see it. But the longer you trade, you start picking up all the different parts that make a good, bad, and different bull, bear, or distribution channel very important to you. And you apply it because of your experience. If you've never been through a cell cycle, a distribution cycle, or even a bull cycle, it's very, very tough to adjust your game because all the things you know is coming from social media. All the information you are getting is going on somebody that you revere and you follow on social media. Unfortunately, the market is about buyers and sellers. When sellers clean up buyers, right, the market goes lower. And that's exactly what we're facing here going into Monday. So be prepared. And if you look at the individual stocks, you'll see exactly what I'm talking about, right? Tesla, you know, I had a video, what, three weeks ago talking about Tesla, you know, Tesla's been building below the 20 day moving average. Watch the 50 day. And the next day, Tesla went up $4 and had people in the comments. Clown, yeah, all you did was seeing a stock put in a bounce day like we just discussed. Stocks don't go straight down. And what happened, you know, what happened a week later? Well, Tesla lost the bottom of the range and we are 18 points lower. So you have to be aware, right? You have to be aware. I mean, look at names like Netflix, right? Netflix is below the 50 day moving average has one channel of support left. If Netflix starts to confirm, it's going to go lower. Remember in the video broke down, right? In the video below the 20 day, I said there's a shot against the 50 day. Well, it got to the 50 day. Guess what? The video lost the 50 day moving average and put in its second day in a row below the 50 day moving average. Look how much room this thing has. There's they were coming for the 400, the 405 weeklies, right? This thing got again destroyed. Look at Apple, right? Look at Apple lost the 50 day moving average on earnings. Look what the stock has done. Remember the 50 day, the 50 day, the 50 day. And that's kind of again, guys, where we leave you with today's video. We are below the 50 day moving average. Again, if you've never went through it, ask questions. There's nothing wrong with being an inexperienced trader. It just wasn't your time. But now you are getting raw data from somebody who's been doing this for a quarter of nearly for a quarter of a century. And the point is you can go into Monday's session being eyes wide open or being eyes wide shut. That is on your, you know, that's up to you, right? It's your dime, your dance floor. Every single adult has a choice to make in this world. And that's what's great about living the life that we do. But facts are facts, guys. And the last 19, 20 minutes, we've been giving you some pretty good facts. You could take it or leave it. Just make sure you stay prepared. Guys, God bless everybody. Stay safe. Let's see what happens this week. Again, I think the bulls need two, three days. If they can get back above the 50 day moving average, everything will go back to normal. But if we continue to build, well, not so much guys. God bless. Stay safe. And I'll see you all tomorrow. Take it.