 Let's jump over to our man Teddy keg stat. You can reach Teddy every trading day folks at forks dash trading dash a lock calm We talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour Teddy keg stat. Happy New Year, man. Happy New Year to you guys as well So we we haven't talked to you in a couple weeks, man We've had a few things going on. We got new all-time highs, of course in the market, man We got a little bit of potential rotation going on with the tech stocks We are quite a strong 80p number this morning Teddy Where do you kick off in the world of forex this morning? Well, I think we should talk about the US dollar yen We finally hit the 116 price target yesterday So, you know 122 is my longer term objective and I'm riding that way, baby I think that yesterday's rally definitely showed that when it comes to that currency cross the bit the bull is definitely Off and running for 2022. I don't think this is a spike that you're seeing I think you're gonna see the trend continue over the next couple of weeks Especially with the way the 30 year and the 10 years sold off over the last two days Now what is driving in your opinion Teddy the the action on this pairing because I you know getting ready to talk to you I take a look at some of the forex pairings, right? I'm always watching them But especially on Wednesdays getting ready to chat with you and not a ton of action in terms of some chop in There across of some of the pairings, but man the dollar yen It is that was the one I was ready to talk to you most about because I think that's probably the biggest move We've had on some of the pairings as opposed to just kind of some of them chopping around a little bit like the euro or something like that Well, I think that they're one of the reasons for this is that the yen is very sensitive to our interest rate environment Which is a factor of currency pricing as well as the oil market So if you look at how oil rally Monday and Tuesday and the and the bonds in the 10 year They tanked especially very hard yesterday, you know pushing some extremes So that's where you got that big elevated rally yesterday And you can tell by today that oil is up slightly the bonds are up slightly a couple I think they were up like 10 12 ticks when I looked at them like 20 minutes ago So they're kind of like right now they're chopping around and kind of just stabilizing So I think that's why you're seeing a little sell-off off of this new a new move high from yesterday So you can kind of see that those relationships where they go the US dollar yen is kind of the going that same direction So we have oil numbers today So if we see oil all of a sudden rally and start pressuring resistance And if definitely if you see the 30 year and the 10 year start to hit support again I would expect to see the US dollar yen be challenging the highs from yesterday very very quickly So let's take that opportunity to jump over to crude Quite a run man. I mean you look at where we've been Teddy And I know you know but you're talking about a move from $62 to up to 78. What's that? That's a $16 move You're talking about a 25% move in crude basically in just over a month from that low We got a 62 bucks coming up to 80 bucks. Do you see I know your long-term bull? I'm assuming that that really hasn't changed coming into the new year But do you see where do you see some potential resistance? You know is it 85 41 the highs we have up there from November? Is it $80 a round number? Where where where some numbers on that crude chart right now at 78 21 that you look for? Okay Well, I think that it's very likely that we're gonna pierce the $80 level within probably the next week or so Now as far as do I think we're gonna have a really accelerated rally to the upside? Probably not and if we do I don't think it's gonna be sustainable in the sense that I think you're gonna start to see a Lot of volatility as we cross the 85 pushing the $90 a barrel mark See here you got to realize is now at that we're already at the threshold now What if we didn't have inflation at all right now? Let's say we were running at 0% inflation for the last two years the price of gas right now We're pushing that threshold once you start to see $4 450 gas you're really gonna start to see a lot of people start to make decisions now if you have $455 gas, you know, I mean I've been saying this for a year. I'm like you just wait We're gonna get to this area and overall over the next couple years. We will see the $150 level we're gonna be where we were back in the you know early 2000s the only thing is now we're coupled with inflation and as we hit this you got to realize It's gonna start to make people make choices. You're gonna have a lot You're gonna have a slowdown in the economy There's just not gonna be the consumerism going on moving forward with these pressures in the market I just can't see it now if we get some sort of they start printing money and start if we go into Colded lockdowns again, and they have started pumping money into the system short term Yeah, that's gonna hold stuff up But right now brother this printing money has to come to an end because we're starting to really get into some serious issues with How the economic numbers member back in the spring of last year? I told you that moving forward for the next couple years You can forget about your basic accounting is gonna be the big Economic numbers now that are driving all of the markets not just the currencies not just the interest rates But that's where people are gonna be looking for true direction because the market itself is the economies of scales are so out of whack You got the fang stocks that are holding up the market And if you look at the advanced decline ratio that the markets actually in a bear market, you know So I mean yeah those with with those variables going on somehow the rubber band eventually if it doesn't snap back It's gonna just snap period, you know, and then we're gonna see some very extreme volatility I mean you'll probably see as As the as the market turns if you will, you know things happen a lot faster You'll probably see a $10 $15 slide in the in the 30 year notes or a bonds rather and 10 year notes over the course of like a week or two You know and like but what will that do to the value of the dollar? Well, that's gonna give it a lot of strength short term, you know But it doesn't matter because the buying power of the dollar is it's still so weak and getting weaker, you know So it's kind of like a short-term little grab You know, it makes us able to buy stuff from other countries really well But how are we how are we gonna export stuff to the world as a dollar is getting strong? You know what I mean? Yes, yes, I know the number of variables in play man as we come into this year sitting at all-time highs And we got three rate hikes probably coming man It is interesting last year like we were talking about it pretty remarkable How wrong people got inflation last year and what I keep reminding myself is that you know all the projections this year are Almost like a best-case scenario as in the projections from the Fed are that you know We're back at 2% by next year for inflation and all those considered. It's kind of like a bull case best-case scenario And I just kind of remember where we were last year because it is tough to see all of those influences waning You know companies right now What's that watch the CRB, you know I mean that's that's gonna be one of your biggest indicators that come out of these Almost all come out of these over the course of 12 months have gone up 50 to 100 percent. Yeah, you know That's all you got to look at if you look at inflation I agree man some of the core numbers that we've gotten on these inflationary numbers steady where they take out right energy and food Staggering core numbers and we all know that food and energy are through the roof So sometimes man, you just got to use your head folks and listen is possible right these things can all wane We're hearing some I'm hearing some you know over the news where it's like, okay Supply shortages aren't as bad Maybe the car companies are able to get chips a little bit better But man, we got a lot of hurdles to get over for 2022 as we come into the year right now Yeah, well Teddy man. It was great to talk to you. We look forward to quite a year in 2022 and we come in with You know the only I'm gonna finish it up Teddy I got charted here crude and pretty remarkable not a lot of people would remember man That we sat above 80 bucks to like a hundred for like almost four years, man From the end of 2010 to almost 2014 20 to the end of 2015 2014 We're sitting between 80 and a hundred dollars Nothing says we can't get back there for sure Teddy man, we appreciate the conversation. We look forward to talking to you next week. I mean, okay