 All right we're back we're live I'm Jay Fidel it's the three o'clock block here on a given Wednesday and we're talking energy in America and we're defining our terms a little bit broadly today energy includes everything that affects energy as well as energy and America affects the entire hemisphere that's why we're talking to Emily Medina in Mexico City is that where you are Emily? Yes I'm in Mexico City right now. Okay she's with the energy policy research organization the Lu Pugliarisi shop in Washington but she is there may I say men on the men on the job in Mexico Mexico City and she reports to us how things are doing there we want to hear everything about what's going on so Emily first let's let's get a report from you on COVID in Mexico I know you have some charts why don't you describe the trend lines there first of all thanks for the invitation I'm glad to be here today yeah I prepared some slides to show you know how the COVID-19 is is going on in Mexico you know and recently you know the number of the debt toll has really increased you know dramatically over the last couple of months and right now we are the third country with the most you know because of COVID-19 so it's getting very serious in the country and I'm gonna provide a little bit of overview of what actions the government has been taking to deal with this issue and what the response has been and the government side yeah to put it in perspective the first the number one country in the world is the United States we have achieved a certain kind of excellence in the number of people who have caught the disease and died thanks to our president and for us it's a hundred and seventy thousand already something like that I have people died and we have five point five and a half million people who have caught the disease is just stunning numbers the second one is Brazil Brazil they're not too concerned about COVID and COVID is coming for them and that's really tragic and the third is Mexico we have you have something in the order of fifty five thousand deaths already that's one third of the US but that that is a very large number for you and so I want to examine well one examine all the demographics yes and then the death toll right now is close to sixty thousand you know the number is very high and you know if we take into account the number of tests that we are having in the country do not match you know with the increasing death toll that we're seeing in the country and in the next chart yeah here we can see in more detail you know how Mexico compares to other countries worldwide in terms of the you know the tests that are being performed and as we can see you know Mexico is you know and the country with the least number of tests and compared to you know all of this and on the right that we're seeing you know Emily doesn't it if you have fewer tests then you're less accurate in other words if you have more tests you find more cases right that's correct so you know in terms of the number of cases that have been reported by the government we have the the number of fifty seven thousand you know people but if we you know take into account that the the government's really not carrying out as many tests as it should to match you know with the number of population in different aspects of you know the Mexican demographics it's you know that's one of the key issues that we're having in Mexico right now in terms of the dealing and the response of the COVID-19 so here on the next slide we can see that the number of tests that have been you know applied since March 6th so as we can see you know the tests you know increased them throughout time and and they reached their peak on July 23rd and it's the odd thing here and what tells you a lot in terms of the data and the COVID situation is that as the number of cases rose and the test started to decline so you know it shouldn't be the case you know what we should be seeing is that as the number of cases is increasing we should see more tests being performed throughout the country not the opposite how do you explain the decline the decline in tests well basically I mean I guess and once the numbers and start to be unfavorable for you know the government then you see the reduction of tests because it's not convenient to show the reality that sounds like Trump doesn't it this is a big issue because for I mean for starters the government is not being transparent with the situation you know if we have such a severe situation in the country where we are you know close to reaching 60,000 deaths we should be using our resources to increase the number of tests and to prevent more deaths not to hide the deaths that are occurring and what really is going to tell us in and this and this fact that you know that the number of deaths do not match the reported and that's by the government is that mortality rates are increasing in the country so they're not matching with the the number of deaths reported from COVID-19 and tragic unfortunately didn't put up the that graph here but if we go to the next graph are we there now yeah yes well this is called the share of COVID-19 tests that are possible positive yeah here so basically this was going you know from my last point that you know we see from July 23rd that the number of positive cases has been increasing so you know these two graphs do not make sense together and this is being manipulated you know the information that's been shared by the government and the response unfortunately hasn't match what we the response that we need in terms of you know the number of cases these these numbers are from the government then on these charts this actually is data from our world our world in data so this in chart is not from the government this is from an independent organization but if we see the first slide is from the government so if you want to go back to let's go back to the first slide that was yeah okay that's official government data yeah well great concern Emily it's it's a great concern everywhere certainly a great concern in this country but it's it's somehow discouraging to find that Mexico is tracking the same path or a similar path that the US is tracking so what does this mean to you I mean to us here in Hawaii we've had you know we we were able to suppress the curve for a while I think people were serious about following the rules they stopped for they got you know they got complacent and it went up and then Trump started talking about reopening and everybody got more complacent and businesses started opening groups and restaurants and what have you and then it got really wild and it's been wild we have had a serious increase in the number of cases daily in the past few weeks it's not not happy time so people like me we can work at home we do work at home and we don't go out much do you go out much it's actually very similar than and approach that Mexico is taking you know there's a lot of similarities in terms of the handling of the opening of the economy and then shutting it down again and opening again because of the you know increasing numbers of cases so for example you know and and here in Mexico I mean I'm sure it also happens in the US where it varies from state to state and because you know here every from the local level governments are taking the measures that they consider appropriate appropriate and for example in the state of Yucatan they even have a ban in alcohol right now so actually they started with abandon alcohol then they you know took the ban away and the number of cases increased so now they have banned alcohol again and they're saving a curfew people are are there's a mandate to wear masks in public so it's it's been you know very different in each state and they that example in Yucatan is one of the states with the you know strongest measures and so basically I mean what we're seeing is that people are being responsible I guess I mean staying home most of most people I would say I mean at least in my circle of friends I know people are you know and being careful and quarantining and everything and personally I am you know not leaving the house much although you know I mean things also have to kind of you know you know we we have to be moving in a new direction in terms of a new normality you know a new norm yes definitely I make sure to wear my mask when I am in public spaces and public areas because you know I think it's being a responsible citizen and it's not precisely that I fear that I'm gonna get it but you know who I can transmit it to if you know if I have it and I don't know it and you know anybody do you know anybody who has become infected I do I knew I know a couple of people who have gotten it and they you know isolated and then you know self-quarantining in their homes for a couple of months until they got rid of it and now they're just like that's normal you know okay to hear that nobody died then no I mean the cases that I am aware of people close to me have been of younger age so you know and they've been able to recover from it more easily what about distancing is there are there rules about distancing and are people following them well yes I mean there is you know everywhere you go you go people in I mean I've been to one restaurant since this you know started in March so and that restaurant was pretty much empty so I mean that's why I felt safe to go and everything and people were you know are I believe like businesses are being very careful in you know and having all the necessary protections and so that's a positive sign but in terms of I mean distancing I think I mean in Mexico Mexico is very family oriented and people you know love to are very effective and love to be hugging even the precedent you know he goes on a rally or whatever he's hugging people in the streets and everything so it's part of our culture you know the close contact and stuff and that's definitely not good for a COVID but but I think people you know are starting I mean they they they get it but it's also hard because it's you know we're so affectionate too bad you know because at the end of the day I mean hugging is good for you it's good for everybody who hugs wherever they are it's a sign of affection and trust and so forth and when we come out of this I think there'll be a lot less hugging going on in the world that's really too bad how people are interacting nowadays you don't even shake hands it's just a it's gonna change the world I think how about Amlo is he is he strong about this is he as he set down rules as he enforced rules about masks and social distancing and and reopening where is his head at is he is he effective in dealing with the COVID well since the start of this pandemic he's you know he he holds a daily conference it's called the mañana where he basically what does that stand for and there's not like a direct translation but it's basically like a morning press okay all right so in his daily morning press which lasts an hour he you know touches on different topics and it's interesting to he listened to it because it's where he said he's he sets his agenda and in all areas you know just a very not so formal setting where he's just like saying his policy approaches and everything you know so in his money and he basically has said that he does not believe in the effectiveness of wearing a mask and you know he basically I mean goes in public without wearing the wearing the face mask so it's unfortunate because you know there's a lot of people watching the mañana and you know learning from the example of the precedent so it's it's not ideal for the country's precedent to say that wearing a mask is stupid and also and the the health and Caesar which is Lopez Gatell he which is you know has been the head of the of the epidemiology team in Mexico and since the beginning and and he also carries a daily you know press conference and he's even you know sent very confusing messages to the people on whether then we should be wearing masks or not you know he said you know wearing mask is a complimentary action by you know washing your hands is what's more effective I mean just like saying a lot of confusing messages where you know it's pretty obvious that you know the evidence is there already that should suggest that wearing a mask is what can help you know prevent the spread of the virus so it wouldn't hurt if you know the health Caesar would just you know be more clear and then saying to the public that they should wear a mask you know let me ask you a hypothetical question you know though if I were a Mexican person living in Mexico I would be mighty offended with the way the Trump administration is treated my country on the other hand it would appear that what Trump does cast a long shadow it cast a shadow on Canada cast a shadow on everything south of the border too because people listen to him including some dictators south of you and for example Brazil and I wonder if Trump's mixed messages his dog whistle confusion messages and the confusion of his administration has an effect on Amlo and the way the Mexican government works in other words my question to you is had Trump been sending clear messages on these things don't you think that Amlo would have followed suit on that and we wouldn't have this confusion in Mexico what do you think that's a very good question and I mean I don't know the exact answer but I think my reasoning is that actually Trump and Amlo share a lot of characteristics in terms of their governing style where you know they're pretty much nationalistic in their approach and in interviews and I think it can and I mean the populist approach in Latin America also I think it's been undermining the response for COVID-19 what an appropriate response should be and this you know they feel like they are the best country in the world if it's Mexico or if it's the US and that they can you know do whatever they want and that they're gonna be well off but I think you know it's important that they recognize the responsibility that they have or in their countries you know I mean it might be popular to to say that wearing a mask is stupid among the public you know because it's it's not boring it's you know it's entertainment it's you know I mean there's a lot of people who are unfortunately not well informed as to make you know wise decisions so this brings me to a question about about the skinheads and those people who follow Trump on the level of bigotry racism and so forth them and and he has with them a weaponized all idea of a mask he's made it a political issue and if you don't wear a mask you're for him if you do wear a mask you're against him and that's really completely irrational but I am wondering whether you have the same phenomenon in Mexico do you have people who refuse to wear masks because because of Trump or because they feel it's their right not to wear a mask it's a political issue for them do you have that actually no I mean I think people are much more willing to wear a mask here in Mexico and I haven't really heard from Mexican people in terms of you know being threatened that there someone is taking away their rights you know because of the wearing of the mask so I don't see that and that reaction from the Mexican public as much as you know we see it in the US I think people here you know because it's I guess it's it's a more family-oriented society than what you have in the US that's a more individualistic society I think that difference it explains why we have you know different reactions among the public I think here people are more worried about you know passing it on to their relatives than what they might be in the US you know let's so let's shift gears for a few minutes Emily let's talk about the reopening in the economy as you know the US is in the economy is in the tank and it looks like it's going to stay there for a while or get way worse not clear Congress has been dysfunctional or non non-functional in dealing with a social safety net and I wonder how things are doing in Mexico have you got a parallel process going on in the economy so contrary to the US approach where you have seen certain as you know a stimulus package being provided to to the people here in Mexico is pretty much been all messed to themselves I mean in terms of you know everybody's on their own in here and there's really happened has not there hasn't been any support from the government and providing you know aid and relief to to the people who are you know and if we're going through a rough economic time and it's also I mean it's it's only gonna get worse from here and the World Bank has a projection for Mexico's economy contracting by 7.5% this year so the economic impact is already being felt throughout the country and the government's response has been you know you know unfortunate because we haven't seen any contra-cyclical measures or any you know type of economic support and this is going to hurt you know small businesses and Mexican society in general we are going to people can they eat you know do you have social unrest as a consequence well so Mexican the government has very strong support from the Mexican public as you may already know and the government won by a majority so his popularity is still very high he holds about a 50% popularity I haven't checked the numbers recently but since the pandemic they have gone down because his hand of the pandemic has been so bad that his popularity has declined but it's still very high it's still about a 50% from a 67% I believe that when he started it was in 2019 so so I take it the you know this they declined in the economy and a gross domestic product and so forth has an effect on energy we need to spend a little time you know evaluating that energy projects energy developments energy investment what effect on those things in Mexico so in terms of the Mexican energy policy right now is going through a change we the government is has a very different idea in terms of what Mexico's energy sector direction should be and it looks a lot more nationalist than what the previous administration and had laid out so we were seeing that Mexico is government is really pushing to strengthen Mexico state oil company Pemex and this is undermining private sector participation which is you know it's also bad for the economy because it is it's causing you know private sector investments to look elsewhere so at the end of the day when we all come out of this and I hope it's soon Mexico will have lost possible investment in the private sector energy economy no yes and this is because the government like I said is favoring Pemex and CFE which are both state-owned energy companies and so this favoring undermines private sector participation too bad I only have one more question for you Emily and that is something I read in the in the paper was in all the Mexican papers this morning I don't know if you saw it but Amlo has decided that he wants to submit to phase three testing of the Russian vaccine which is by the way interestingly enough called Sputnik 5 you know referring to way back in the I guess it was in the 50s when when Russia saw you know was the first one to send a satellite into orbit and they still you know celebrating that event and that success so the you know I guess they're referring back to the that to demonstrate that they're their their COVID vaccine is early you know it's a great success for them but what's interesting is that he has submitted himself he said you show me efficacy and I will personally participate in the phase three trial and I will get a lot of Mexican people to participate in the phase three trial even though there really hasn't been a lot of trials up to this point then there's a certain a risk and the American medical community research community saying what are you kidding this is untried so what do you think about that what do people think about that in Mexico well it's I mean it's very interesting to see that he wants to be the first one to have that vaccine in Mexico so let's see how that goes at the same time and they're also developing a new vaccine so Mexico and Argentina stroke a deal to come up with a vaccine here in Latin America so hopefully that goes so well it's being funded by the Slim Foundation so it's gonna be Carlos Slim yeah so it's gonna be free to the public and I mean hopefully we can have it ready soon that would be interesting Emily if if Mexico and Argentina that collaboration actually resulted in a working vaccine and then the US would be asking if Mexico could do it a favor and provide some of the you'll think you'll have to think long and hard about that but what would you like to tell you know people in the US about the Mexican experience and what what Mexico has learned from it to the extent Mexico has learned and then how the US can think about it in context of the Mexican experience so in dealing with COVID-19 so basically I mean I guess I mean what I would like to tell the US is to be responsible and I mean to I don't know I mean provide the the resources and capabilities that the world needs right now it definitely I mean all countries in the world are watching the US and are following their example and I think it's gonna be interesting to see how they continue to respond to this issue and whether they continue to lead the world in the direction that needs to be led. Oh that's so well put that's really a wonderful answer to my question Emily. Emily Medina of E-princk in Mexico City thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you Jay, it's a pleasure. Aloha and vaya candios. Aloha.