 Switch is in the midst of an absolutely incredible sales period in 2019. Over 830,000 units have sold in the United States alone during the week of Thanksgiving. That assuredly means Switch sold more than 1 million units in the United States alone in November. Keep in mind, Cyber Monday and another key sales day in the United States actually happens in December. Assuring a very strong December, even with a little bit of a weak release like GameWise this month. No offense by the way to Alien Isolation and Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games. Reports just came in that the Switch has topped 1 million units lifetime to date in Spain, a country that has always heavily leaned towards Sony's platforms. In Japan, Switch hasn't even hit its major sales period of the year yet it's already over 1 million in sales ahead of the total sales of Switch in Japan last year and on its 3rd straight week of selling 180,000 units. Heck, this past week it made up 95% of all hardware sales in the entire country. Switch is also launching in China on December 10th, a country that hasn't had a major impact officially on Nintendo console sales basically ever the last two decades. A country that hosts not only the highest population in the world, but a country that is thirsty for quality video game experiences. As of September 30th, 2019, the official sell through total for Nintendo Switch was at 41.67 million units. Last year, during the sales period of October, November, and December, Nintendo sold 9.8 million Nintendo Switches. Their current sales data for this period is showing them well ahead of that pace, likely somewhere between 10 and 13 million for this fiscal quarter alone. That means, as of January 1st, 2020, Nintendo Switch will have sold close to 55 million units worldwide since launch on March 3rd, 2017. That means, in just two years and nine months, the Switch will have sold more than half as many units as the Nintendo Wii, which had a full six year life cycle on the market and topped out at 101.63 million units. There was a time when the late Satoru Owada and his team felt the Wii U was a shoe in the match to the Wii's success. We know, naturally, that that was extremely misguided. Maybe an HD Wii like system could have maintained some momentum if released earlier and without the tablet controller, but at the time it released, everything basically went wrong. Inevitably, however, that did lead to Nintendo Switch. I'm here to tell you that the Switch is going to outsell the Nintendo Wii, and here's how it's going to do it. I think it's fair to say that by the end of the current fiscal year, which runs through March 2020, the Nintendo Switch is going to be at or around 60 million units sold. That marks right around three years on the market, with an average of 20 million units per year sold. Of course, this current fiscal year would be the peak year thus far in sales. Normally, I wouldn't presume an extra 5 million units in sales during a typically slow January through March period, but is this really a typical period next year? On March 20th, Animal Crossing New Horizons is releasing. While some may not think that this is a big deal, it is the first completely new Animal Crossing game since New Leaf. New Leaf currently sits at 12.36 million sales on the Nintendo 3DS, making it the best-selling Animal Crossing game of all time. You may think that's a fluke that we shouldn't expect those kind of sales on Switch, but Switch is a very unique system for Nintendo. See, numbers felt inflated sale-wise during, say, the Wii and DS era, just due to the sheer number of platform sold, 250 million in total. We saw games do incredible numbers. We fit, nearly 23 million. How about something more established, I don't know, Smash Bros Brawl, 13.3 million, best in the series at that time. Mario Galaxy, 12.79 million, best ever for a full 3D Mario platformer. Heck, Mario Kart Wii sold 37 million units. On DS, we saw Mario Kart DS sell 23 million. Heck, Super Mario 64 DS, a port from the Nintendo 64, outsold the original game with 11 million units. Massive consumer base equals unheard of sales for Nintendo. On Switch, how do comparable titles fare? Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, a port by the way of a Wii U game, not even a new title, has sold 19 million. At its current rate, it will be passed the DS title by the end of next year. Smash Bros. Remember those Wii numbers? What if I told you Ultimate is the best selling Smash game of all time, with 15.71 million units sold? Remember those Galaxy numbers? What if I told you Odyssey crushed those figures so far, with 15.38 million units? How about Breath of the Wild? I didn't even mention Twilight Princess before for Wii and Gamecube, which combines sales from both of those platforms is just north of 8 million. That was the best selling Zelda game of all time. Breath of the Wild? Yeah, let me nearly double those sales for you on Switch alone, not even counting the Wii U, with 15 million. Are you seeing the pattern? Switch games have incredible selling power. Super Mario Party is the best selling Mario Party game of all time. Mario Maker 2 and Splatoon 2 outsold their Wii U founding games. Link's Awakening is on pace to outsell every other version of Link's Awakening, potentially combined. Maybe the only anomaly is New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe, as it's only sold 4.59 million on Switch, and it is a Wii U port, and the Wii U version sold 5.79 million. Although that was a launch game, and it's only been on Switch for less than a year. So who knows, it might even pass those numbers on Switch at the end too. This is all stated to make you understand, that it is more likely than not, that New Horizons not only matches New Leaf sales, it will exceed it. Launch numbers are going to be the biggest in franchise history, and this is with a $199 and a $299 Switch skew on the marketplace. Switches will continue to fly off store shelves and lead up to the release of that title. That's how we get to $60 million before the turn of the new fiscal year. Three years, $60 million. Well, the math's pretty simple, right? Switch goes for another 3 years, moves $20 million per year, the average says, hey we're at 120 million units. Woo! Okay, not exactly. We can't ignore that the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Scarlet are on their way, that they are inevitably going to draw attention away from Nintendo's flagship title, that they are inevitably going to draw attention away from Nintendo's flagship console. Can we? See, Nintendo Switch is already massively underpowered compared to modern consoles. The next-gen versions make that gap wider. But is it going to matter? Is Breath of the Wild 2, potentially a holiday 2020 title, really going to get overlooked due to new consoles on the market? How about another Pokemon remake with gen 9 launching in potentially 2021? What happens when an actual new Mario Kart game releases, and not just a port of an older one? What happens when the next 3D or 2D Mario lands? How about a potential Monster Hunter title from Capcom? The point being made is, Nintendo for the first time in the history of their company has their entire video game development forecast focused on a singular system. No longer are developers split between handheld and home console. It's all now one in the same. They are solely focused on Switch, and with that focus, game output is only going to increase, not decrease, over the next two years. Which is very much unlike other Nintendo systems in their second half of life, where Nintendo typically has to pull the plug. One, because they're still developing for a completely another platform, and two, they've got to work on the next-gen platform. Here, they can still make games for Switch and continue to make games for whatever comes next. The appeal of Switch isn't lessened when those new systems from the competitors launch. Unless those new systems are able to be undocked and taken anywhere, of course. We haven't seen them yet, we can't rule that out. They don't really compete in the same market, though. Sort of like the Wii. The Wii thrived at a time HDTV was being pushed hard, and the other systems obliged. Likewise, Switch is thriving at a time when 4K is becoming mainstream, and new systems coming out push it further. Yet, here is Switch, ignoring that trend and doing something different. Again. Like Nintendo always seems to do. So how does it pass Wii the next three years? Well, it's not going to keep pushing 20 million per year. Though I do think fiscal year 2020-2021 will be close, if not slightly ahead of 20 million. I feel like that will depend how Nintendo handles their lineup, even with new systems launching. Switch does still top 20 million one more time, I feel. That gets it to 80. I think 2021-2022 is when the decline starts. But it won't be some rapid decline. I think there will be another new Switch during this time. Potentially the rumored Switch Pro or maybe just a Switch XL like it's rid of the bezels. Something like that. Something to reinvigorate the market and keep the sales at least a boost to the level that Switch Lite has where it's not as big a boost as Nintendo would like it to be, but it's still a boost. I believe this will also be the first year to feature a price drop on the original model of Switch. This should keep sales fairly healthy combined with a strong lineup and actually being in China, a marketplace that is completely unpredictable at this point, and should lead to at least 17 million in sales for that fiscal year. In 2021-2022, Switch has to only sell about 14-15 million to top the Wii. Is that doable? But the scarier thing is that it might not even be the platforms last year on the market. Nintendo could hold off until say November of 2023, which would give it a little bit more than 6 years on the market and then they can launch what comes next. This gives Nintendo ample time to surpass the Nintendo Wii, a feat thought once impossible. The days of catching the DS and PlayStation 2 are probably in the distant past for even Sony, let alone Nintendo. Topping 100 million has to be seen as a massive victory for Nintendo. Hell, the Switch is already successful today, and it should be their second best-selling home console ever by the time we get to 2021. The difference is, unlike the Wii, this doesn't feel like it's some one-off success that lightning in a bottle. Switch feels like just the beginning of what could be multiple generations of improving and creating a better product that really has no true rival in the marketplace. Well, unless you consider game streaming to be a rival at this point. Time will tell, but for now, Switch is doing really great, and for the people who love to see the best of the best from Nintendo, this bodes very well for the future of my favorite video game company. I am attending a rival chance from Nintendo Prime. I want to thank you so much for tuning in. Give me your thoughts on Switch's potential to cross 100 million units. Do you think it's going to fall well short? Do you think it's going to massively exceed it? What do you think is Nintendo's game plan to get to that fabled 100 million mark that they've only done with one other home console and only one handheld console ever? What do you think is the strategy? Do you think it's just a shoe-in? Let me know down in the comments below. I hope you enjoyed this video. Subscribe for more content, like the video, and I'll catch you in the next one.