 All right, what's up guys, this is Alex from Xtrades, back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful Labor Day weekend, got some resting, got to rest your brains. Now we're getting back into a shortened week in the stock market. Last week was pretty interesting, there's definitely a lot going on, a lot of data. The Jills job openings data moved us very, very heavily last week and then we also had non-farm payrolls and also ISM data on Friday. So I'd say it was pretty volatile and then the volume died down very, very rapidly. So the first hour moved the most and then the rest of the day was just choppy. That's probably just because people went on, you know, they went on their break and probably went on their little vacation for the weekend. So this week might be a little bit quiet, there's definitely not as much data as there was last week. We had way more going on last week and also it was just a full week. So this week, Tuesday, September 5th, this is our first trading day of the week. Also we have its factory orders and I don't really expect this to move the market that much. So I really wouldn't expect too much from this. Wednesday we can definitely see some movement from data. So we have the S&P final US services PMI, also the US trade deficit and ISM services. And then also the Fed beige book, but usually this doesn't really move the market too much, the beige book, just a little summary from all types of Federal Reserve banks. And they kind of just give an economic outlook, right pretty much how their economy is doing in their local area, depending where the Federal Reserve Bank is located. And then Thursday, September 7th, just our usual initial jobless claims. And then really it's just a bunch of Fed speakers, this US productivity and unit labor costs, the revisions, I don't think this is going to move the market at all. Fed speakers can definitely move the market, it just depends on how hawkish or dovish they sound. Usually I really only care for general power when it comes to Fed speakers. I also liked Fed Bullard, but he's not going to be here anymore. I think he took like a dean position at some college, some Ivy League school, and he's not going to be doing any more speeches for the Federal Reserve or really anything. So really when it comes to Fed speakers, it's kind of a wild card. Really any of these could, you know, move the market, it just depends on how extreme their speeches are. And if really anything's hitting the newswire that's going to trigger algorithms or any other traders to take instant action and reflect it in the price, such as rate cuts, rate hikes, really anything that's against the norm and what the market is expecting. If any of them mentioned that, it can hit the newswire and that can, you know, make the algorithms bit up or down. You can see some volatility, but I really wouldn't expect too much from this. But there is a lot of them, like you got one, two, three, four, five, six. So you got six different schedules here for Fed speakers. So really anything could happen on Thursday. It's kind of a wild card, but I personally wouldn't expect too much from it. And Friday, September 8th, we do have wholesale inventories. We do have one Fed speaker and then consumer credit towards the end of the day. So very quiet week for data. I would just say that the PMI and ISM services could probably move the market the most, really out of any of these. And maybe the initial jobless claims, especially with how it reacted to the Joel's job openings, a lot of people have been paying attention to changes in the labor market. So if we could see any hint of more changes in the labor market, initial jobless claims can definitely move more than expected. It just depends on how extreme the reading is, as I say, every week. So it's for the economic data. Let's go ahead and check out the seasonality real quick. So this is for the SPX, we're going into September 5th tomorrow. And I would add and put it up to September 16th, as you can see up here. And the reason for that, because that's pretty much when we average a rally up until that point, up until the 16th. And then after the 16th, it's pretty much just a straight shot down to hell. As you see, we average a very large dip doesn't mean it has to happen. But I just want to show you that this little period from September 5th to the 16th, it's relatively quiet and it does have a little upthrust, with the exception of this little dip right here that you see from, what is it? Like the 7th to the 9th or so, maybe the 10th, it's like a little dip. So I would expect the beginning of September up into half of September probably be relatively quiet, maybe it'll be smooth, hopefully not too much volatility and hopefully we'll somewhat follow this pattern. I wouldn't mind seeing some upside in the market before we see this large dip. It looks like that's what we may get. You know, this is past 25 years worth of data all the way from 1998 to current. So we've been following the seasonality pretty good. It's not just going to follow it, you know, move by move to the exact like we can definitely move more than, you know, 0.28%. This is just the average return of all the years combined for this period from September 5th to the 16th. So we definitely move more than that. And we don't have to go up either, but I just want to show you from the beginning of September up into the half, it is relatively quiet and there is a little upthrust and there's really no volatility that we're averaging until the last half of the month. And then for Tuesday, this is the Almanac page. You can see a day after Labor Day, Dow up 16 of last 28, but down last nine of last 12. The Dow was up 16 of the last 28 years, but Dow was also down nine of the last 12 years. You see the probabilities for the Dow is actually pretty good. It's at a 76.2% chance of rising, S&P at 52.4% chance of rising, Nasdaq at 52.4% same thing. And then the rest of the week, you see like Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, all pretty neutral probabilities are in the 50s and 40s. So really nothing too much here. But Tuesday, the day after Labor Day looks like, you know, could probably be a pretty good mover, especially after people come back from vacation or they come back from their break. We can definitely see maybe a little bit more volume, a little bit more activity and participation that we saw on Friday. And it's also the beginning of the month. And you can see that beginning of the month, rebounding people are, you know, trying to, people are trying to get their entries and exits in for, you know, the rest of the month, you see that beginning of the month up through us, a little bit of Wall Street window dressing, trying to make everything look good. And then towards the end of the month, as you saw in the seasonality is when it kind of starts dying down. And maybe people are starting to take profits. People start hedging. The big starts going up. People get a little bit more fear because they're expecting that weakness and seasonality towards the last half of the month. So it looks like this does just align with a pretty neutral, pretty neutral start of September as this shows us right here. Really nothing too crazy. Probabilities aren't crazy. And I'm pretty sure this data on the Almanac is for the last either 50 or maybe 100 years, but either way, it's pretty good data. Really, it's just probabilities at the end of the day. So it's not a guarantee or anything. It's just kind of giving us odds of what the market could be and the odds of it rising. That's for the economic calendar for the seasonality. And also just a quick Almanac page. I want to show you if you want to go get the Almanac, you can go on Amazon. Look up maybe it might be 2023 stock Almanac this year. Maybe it's 2024. The new edition should come out relatively soon and it comes out every year. So if you want to go on Amazon, go check that out. You can buy one. It also has a bunch of other cool stuff in it. So you can even write in the little journal pages that provides you if you need a trading journal. There's other data, other charts, lots of stuff in the Almanac. But for the most part, it is just a big calendar with historical data, little quotes, all sorts of stuff. So it's good if you're an investor or trader, kind of see what you're going up against seasonality wise. So let's go ahead and get into our individual setups. I only have three this week. We have one long that I'm looking at and also two potential shorts. I just want to be covered on both ends in case no market dips. And maybe we don't have that smooth beginning of September. I do want some potential setups to the short side for puts just so you have that exposure in case the market does dip because September is historically weak. And you can see that weakness starting to come. Honestly, I mean, the liquidity is not great. The swings are more wild because, you know, the bids and offers are more thin and it takes less to move the market. So you see those wild whipsaw swings. But first set up here, we're looking at AMD. You can see it's a test one, test two. I'm starting to break out here. It's a very brief break out, so it's not too far broken out yet, which is what I like because if it gets too far out, then, you know, you don't want to chase it. So this is just now starting to break out a little bit. If we zoom out also, you got to test one, test two, test three bounce. So this would have been a good trade off test three as well. But either way, it's looking pretty good for potential bounce. I mean, it's been consolidating, kind of suppressed a little bit. It hasn't really moved the way that AMD usually moves. So you kind of assume it's in that consolidation period. And a big move could be coming soon. So I'm hoping that this little signal on the break out here could be good for upside. If we go to the four hour, you can see it's also broken out. It looks like there's a big inbounds candle right here. So you need to look out at the top of one eleven sixty four. If we can get over one eleven sixty four and also just the one twelve area that could take you up to supply at about one sixteen or so. It's going to be at this area right here. And that's a one day supply zone, I believe. So this is a little it's like a rally based drop supply zone. And it comes from this area right here. It's going to be at one sixteen. So if you can get over one eleven sixty four, you lose. You could use one eleven sixty four as a short term price target. So it gives you about, you know, two dollars to the upside so far before you hit resistance. And then if it can get over that and close over that with a one day bar that could take you to one sixteen. So AMD here looking at calls looks pretty good for this breakout. Really just needs to stay over one seven eight short term. And that's this little support area right here. So that's the one of seven area. As long as it stays over that, since it reclaimed it and it was a pretty good support beforehand before it broke right here. Now that it's reclaimed it, we want to see it staying over that. So it's all we're doing just using past price points as, you know, our current levels. And then overall, obviously, it just has to hold that ninety nine fifties low. But you don't want to use this as a risk off unless you're thirty plus maybe sixty days out on expiration for calls because ninety nine fifties a good little distance away. And if you're going at the money or slightly in the money for contracts, if it goes down to ninety nine fifty eight, that's going to be, you know, pretty far out of the money at that point. So you want to use this one seven eight as the short term risk off. Also, you could use this up trend line right here. Just use your standard test one, test two, test three trend line right here. You want to see it holding that you could also kind of assume if it went back within the downtrend line and started closing back within this, you could use that as a risk off as well. It's another way to look at it. So you just want to, you know, view it in multiple ways so we can view this one seven area as a short term risk off. We could use this downtrend line breakout area as a risk off. If it goes back within, you know, probably go invalid on the short term. And then overall just needs to hold ninety nine fifty eight, obviously, and this overall up trend line right here. So as long as it's holding this overall up turn line, set up still looks good. But if you're, you know, short term trading, you want to just consider the one seven and the downtrend line. Just keep it simple. And then use one eleven sixty four is your first area of resistance and your overall area of resistance or supply at one sixteen. It can get up there if it can get over one eleven sixty four. So it's for AMD. Look at that calls. All right. Next, we're going into your shop. So this is actually been on a tear, had a crazy gap up the other day, closed up 10 percent. So this may be just a tad bit overextended on the short term. Obviously, you know, it's hard to determine what is overbought and oversold. So all you can do is draw your resistance points. Use supply and demand. Maybe look at an escalator or two as well. You can use the R side. We have to know how to use it correctly. And you can't really be upset if the R side is wrong, because R side is not the most reliable. So you can use it for overbought and oversold signals. But it's good to use other things as well. And right now we're looking at this supply right here. It's kind of like a drop based drop area. So you got a big drop base drop. You could also call it a little rally based drop as well. But either way, this is a base. That's a very strong selling. And that's why I think this area could see a little bit of resistance. So I'm going to be looking at puts on this. Obviously, I want to see it taking out Friday's lows for a reversal signal. It's going to be at sixty five eighty nine. I have a magnet on. So my lines that I draw is auto connect to the low and whatever point that I needed to take out. So if you're wondering how I'm getting these precisely drawn, that's how I just add the magnet and literally hit it. And your mouse will just auto connect to sixty five eighty nine. And that's Friday's low. So you want to see it taking out the lows of Friday. They can take out the lows of Friday. That's your signal. And it could start filling back down this area right here. And it probably try to hold up right where the gap starts. Kind of like as a gap support, a lot of stocks will do that. We'll try to bounce there. And then, you know, maybe afterwards they can fill. But you really don't know if it's going to fill until you get that confirmation. That's usually going to be like an hourly, like an hourly bar break under the low of the gap support and get under that. Start closing with it and then the rest of the area can fill or at least halfway. Sometimes they'll stop like halfway, three quarters, just to mess with people. So we're not really eyeing the gap fill entirely. I mean, overall, eventually, I feel like this could fill because 80 percent of the time gaps are going to fill. I'm pretty sure that's an actual statistic. But right now we're just focused on this sixty five eighty nine. We want to see that breaking first. And then we'll just either gap support for now. So what we could do, we can go ahead and hit add alert and we'll just name it break down Friday's low. So I already had it in there and that could be a nice little signal for puts and you want to be able to wait, right? You want to be patient. You don't want to just jump and push just because it's at supply. So we're going to use this Friday's low. It's kind of the structure point that needs to break under to start filling the rest of this daily bar down. And last week, we had a oxy as well. We were waiting for a signal and we never got it. So it's important that you set alerts and you wait for the signals so you don't get screwed because last week oxy looks good for puts, right? It broke the trend line with that. There was a lot of wicks, a lot of by pressure wicks pushing up to the upside so that made a skeptical. So we went ahead and set an alert at the lows of the wicks and we waited for that to break and they never broke. So we never got the signal for oxy puts and eventually energy caught a bid and a rally. So you got to be careful with that. Luckily, we had FCX totally ripped off demand. It looked great and even cleared our supply target. And then we also had UPS, which had a really nice bounce for two days. I believe Monday and Tuesday, it just totally ripped. Maybe two or three percent of the cause for FCX and UPS were great. The oxy puts did not trigger. And it's important that you wait for those triggers and the reason why you want to draw these out and set the alerts so that you don't get screwed and you're waiting for a signal. And it's important to wait for the signal sometimes. You know, you could try to call the exact top or try to enter right away. But sometimes if you're a little bit impatient, the market will, you know, humble you. So let's go ahead and wait for the 65, 89 Fridays low to get taken out. And then we can look at puts on shop. If this never triggers, then so be it. But overall, it looks pretty good. Looks like the slow stochastic here getting a tad bit overbought. I was looking at another chart as well. The RSI was also looking a little overbought. Now that the RSI or this escalator means anything. The most important thing is that it's at this major supply where there was a huge selling bounce from August, arguably, probably due to this earnings right here. And maybe we can see a little short term repeat. But we want to wait for that 65, 89 to get taken out. And then we can look at puts. So shop here looking at puts. Just be patient. Wait for that signal. Go ahead and draw a low at Friday's low. If you're watching this on your trading view, right click, hit add alert and do the same exact thing. And just wait. All right. Next, we're going into RCL. So this is another short setup. If you're familiar with bearish patterns, you probably already know what this is. It's a head and shoulders pattern. That's just not confirmed yet. It has to take out the neckline. So this is your first shoulder. So this is your head and your second shoulder and this area right here. Another thing it has broke this little uptrend line. Obviously, if you want to trade this trend line, you need to enter after this first bar and broke down into 97 30 to the support, which is also the neckline. So you got your neckline right here in 97's. You got to hold them up right here, holding up right here. So you can assume that 97 30 is your neckline. So what we're going to do, you're going to hit add alert at 97 30 and we'll name it neckline break. So this is another put setup that you're waiting for a signal on shop. You're waiting for Friday's load to get taken out RCL. You're waiting for 97 30 to get taken out, which is your clear neckline. As you see, there's a bounce here. There's a bounce here, bounce here. So it's about three or four bounces off this neckline. So it's a clear area of support. Also a clear neckline. You have one shoulder, another shoulder and a head. Very clear head and shoulders pattern here, which is bearish. So we can look at puts on this. If it breaks 97 30, probably want to see like a one day bar starting to close under this. And then you can start looking for flushes. If you want to go to the shorter term time frames, use like a one hour bar. If it starts closing under 97 30, you're going to assume that the neckline is potentially breaking. Obviously when, you know, when it breaks, it can shoot right back up and reclaim it. But, you know, that's why you set stop losses. And, you know, just don't expect too much from the market. So you won't be disappointed because the market does have a randomness factor to it. I was explaining this last week. If you keep your expectations low, it'll feel that much better if your price target hits and also you won't be disappointed if the market does something totally random. It goes against your analysis. So like I said, the market's not here to make you look stupid. It's not here to, you know, do the opposite of what you're thinking, which sometimes it feels like it's like that, but it's really not. There's just a lot of computers and algorithmic trading. I feel like they're just, you know, trained to take the opposite and take contrarian trades and you'll see that reflected in the price action like it'll break support and then instantly you shoot back over it and you're like, what the hell? Like you get instantly stopped out of your puts. It happens. But just set your stop losses. Use the one hour bars. Make sure your levels are breaking first. You know, just be as careful as possible. If you took all your precautions, you know, you did everything you could. Sometimes the market or the trades doesn't work out. So 97 30. That's your area you want to set in alert. We just right click. Hit alert, name it and we named it a neckline. So that's your head and shoulders looking at RCL for puts. Just make sure your neckline is breaking before you take puts. All right. Now we're getting into the indexes. So last week, I was expecting a bounce in the market. The reason for that, we were still holding 43 85, which is the level we're looking at last week. We were also looking at this demand. It's the same thing we're looking at the week before. We're looking for a bounce off this demand as long as it got over 43 85. We expected it to get all the way up here up into supply. I expected the same thing this week. I just wasn't sure if it was going to get up there within a week. And it literally just did that plus more. So this is our price target at four, four, fifty. It totally cleared that in three days. So actually within two days. So it did this on Tuesday, literally Monday was bullish. I was expecting this little red bar right here, this big sale and bounce candle to fill back up. I thought I'd just take us in the supply and then we'd see a little bit of resistance. No, not the case. Jill's job openings came out, made the market extremely bullish. And we just absolutely ripped through supply. And you can see once we got through the supply, the pretty, pretty straight shot up to one week's supply. So I'll show you in the one week time frame in a second. But I just want to give my thoughts about last week. It obviously cleared all of our price targets. The analysis was correct. It definitely went up way faster than I thought. That'll take a little bit, at least, you know, a week or two to start getting up into the supply. But it was way faster than I thought. And it's likely because of the sale and bounce candle. I mean, usually when you see a bar like this, it's going to fill back up relatively quickly, kind of like a gap. That's what I was explaining last week. This big sale and balances are almost like gaps and they eventually fill back up. Market likes to fill back up these red candles to the upside and then also likes to fill up, you know, green candles like this pretty fast to the downside. And that's where supply and demand zones come in. Using red, red bearish base candles for demand. Using, you know, bullish base candles as supply areas. As you see, it rejected off the supply on Thursday. And then we filled that back up. So as for last week, this week, obviously, I feel like it's not as clear of a setup because we already moved, right? I've already cleared my price targets. And not only that, we're now up into one week supply. So this is a big, big one week supply. This is our most recent 52 week highs. This is a big rally based drop zone. You can see initially we did have some resistance. You can see it in this wick and also just from these, you know, two daily bars right here, this area starting to kind of reject just a little bit, which is not surprising after we had a, you know, almost a 2% rally just in these two candles. So from this area, I'm definitely not looking to buy calls. This is kind of like a no-no. I would need to wait for, you know, 4,600. Need to wait for that to break out and I could expect a little bit more highs. I feel like we might stall out a little bit at this area just because of the one week supply. It could also see a pullback from this area as well. I just don't think it's going to be this week because we have this big one week candle that closed up relatively bullish. I mean, it closed up, I think that's plus 2.5% on the week. So really great week, really great one week bar as well as we're back over our nine EMA. You see this green line and we're also over the 21. So this 921 combo has been holding all the way from, you know, April, March, just this area is when it started and we've been holding it ever since. And you can't really assume that a structure is completely broken until you see it under the 921 combo on whatever timeframe you're looking at. The 921 is kind of your standard uptrend downtrend measurement, depending if it's trending over it like this, or if it's trending below it like these bars right here, you can assume it's in a downtrend. Once it gets back over, it's in an uptrend. So right now we're in an uptrend and really anything that you're trying to bet against to the contrarian side, which is looking for downside up here, you are betting against that uptrend. So that's where it gets a little bit tricky. But with this one week supply, if it can start getting maybe a little bit further inside of it, a little bit closer to the supply high, I feel good about trying to look for some downside or rejections. But with this one week bar and also this reclaim over the moving averages, you can see it's closing back over the 90 may, it could see a little upthrust here up into supply before rejecting. So there's just no one week bar or really anything screaming that is just going to reject and fill this candle all the way back down as well as a VIX at 13.82. We would need some type of event for that to happen. And I showed you the economic calendar. We just don't have that this week. So I'm not really expecting much this week. It's pretty much the summary of what I'm saying here. I personally wouldn't try to trade calls inside this area for swing trades, at least for day trades, it's fine. As long as you're flat by the end of the day, if you know you're still trying to buy the dip and you're still trying to trade breakouts up here, that's fine. As long as you're flat by the end of the day, but you do want to be careful with swing trades in this area because this is not the best risk to reward. If you're looking to get swing trades or trade calls, you want to get it closer to the one week moving averages, get it closer to one day demand. Like I was saying the last two weeks and this week I'm telling you, it just doesn't look as good. So last week I had you down here. I'm sorry, two weeks ago I had you down here. We were looking for a bounce. We got that hit the supply target last week. Looking for the same exact thing. You just want to see the sell and balance candle fill back up. That already happened. So now I'm just kind of putting my hands up, probably not going to try to call anything too reckless here because we are at supply and also at the same time, the one week bar is not that bearish. So I'm not going to say it's just going to reject super hard here. And I'm just not going to say that's going to rip super hard here. I feel like this could enter a little period of consolidation and this one week bar might not be that significant, to be honest. There's really not enough data or really anything to make it significant. You know, maybe maximum to probably get up to 45, 44, another 30 points. There's also a little gap right here. So if I didn't have the one week supply here, there's also this little gap right here. So maybe we could fill that as well. So you're looking at, you know, 45, 66 or so. And that's probably the max I could see it. You know, fill the gap, maybe you reject about there. On your one day bars, you are trending over the 9 and 21 combo. You got your 9 EMA crossing back over your 21. So that's a good sign. It crossed down here back in early August. And that's when we kind of started to see that downside. And now we're getting right back over. You got your green crossing over the yellow. So that's a good sign. It's just not that great because we're at one week supply. So maybe expect this little gap to get filled. It just doesn't look as good this week as it did the last two weeks. I had a way more clear signals for SPX to be careful, you know, for swing trades and, you know, for day trading, that's fine. Just be careful if it gets inside the supply. All right. Next, we're going into the QQQ. So I had the same, pretty much the same outlook as SPX last week. I was looking for a balance on the NASDAQ. Kind of some new drawings here. Let's get back to our previous ones. So we're looking at this demand right here, drop base rally zone. And then we also had was that 363 40s. So we're looking at this Friday close from last week. We close over the 363 40s, which is pretty much what gave me confidence that we could bounce because we were holding demand and also close over the 363 40 structure in this bar right here. And then you can see we filled this big selling balance candle pretty much right away. And the max I was looking for was just the 372 85s, you know, just the pretty much the selling balance candle high. And we cleared that plus more. So now on the one day, we are breaking out this little downtrend. You got test one, test two. There wasn't really a test three rejection. So this trend line is kind of iffy. I would rather have seen a rejection and then a breakout. You want to see that three tests rejection for trend lines or just, you know, a third test reaction in general for any trend line uptrend or downtrends, three tests is what validates your trend. And to validate this one with absolute certainty, we would have wanted to see a test one rejection, test two rejection, test three rejection. You can see it just broke straight out. So, you know, take this trend line with a green salt. So we are coming into this big base right here. It's a supply zone. We already filled this little gap right here. So it looks like this could see a little bit of resistance. Definitely doesn't look that great to enter calls, but at the same time, we're trending over your nine and 21 EMAs on the one day time frame. You got your nine crossing back over your 21 maximum. If it did pull back here from supply, I could see it, you know, down to here and probably try to back test that area and hold up there. And I don't really have a clear price target or really any direction, you know, going off this chart for this week, the last two weeks, much easier, much more clear this week, not so much. You know, you do have kind of like a little shoulder here, right? You can make the first shoulder, you got a head and then maybe, you know, it could make another shoulder and try to sweep up, take out the neckline and break out, but that's just speculation. That's just something that's, you know, potential. But the lowest I could see it, if it did pull back here off supply at 372.85, that's just your selling bounce candle high, which would also be a back test area, probably meet up with the nine and 21 moving averages as well. So maybe we can see a pullback in the QQQ just very slightly with, you know, 372.85 maximum. And then upside, I feel like it's just limited here. It's mid range. I don't really have anything for you right here. So I personally wouldn't trade the QQQ or the spy for swing trades yet. Way for a better signal. And then your better signal is going to be a rejection candle on one week for that one week supply and a little bit more follow through for the QQQ to the downside to probably be under Friday's low. If it can break that, that could take you down to 372.85. Maybe way for a slow, stochastic crossover as well. Either way, I mean, it's technically now back in the uptrend, right? You have your nine and 21 combo. So it's definitely a little bit risky to short up here. There's just no clear direction for me on this one this week or really the SPX either. You know, the move already happened the last two weeks to give two perfect opportunities to buy the dip and then buy the dip again the next week after that. So I would just be careful on this one. Maybe you just expect 372.85 is the maximum low if we see downside. And that's about it. You can maybe look at calls if it pulled back down here as well. So if it came back down to 372.85 and tried to help, you know, hold up there, there'd be a great back test trade and you could look at calls there. Otherwise, you know, if it can pull back into the moving averages again, that's another good area to look at calls. Maybe to buy the dip. I would rather buy the dips. I don't like buying into supply and I don't like buying breakouts really that much. It depends how big the level is. Like you got a pretty clear breakout right here. They gave a nice breakout to the upside for a couple of days, but we kind of already missed that right here, right? This is a breakout. So this big bar to break out for two days straight. Once I got over that supply or the selling balance high, there's really no breakout trade right now. You wouldn't have a breakout trade on QQQ here until I got over, you know, 385 and also about 388 or so. That'd be your breakout. So I hope that makes sense. I hope you can see it's really not that clear here. Wait for the pullback, wait for it to get into, you know, 370s, maybe 373 or so, the moving averages. And you could try to buy the dip for a higher low trade or a back test. But otherwise, I really wouldn't touch it up here. All right. Next, we're going into the IWM. And last week, we were looking for 189. I pretty much just reiterated my 189 price target that didn't hit the week before because banks were pretty slow and the financial sector was slow. So this little chop zone was the week prior. We're looking for the shoulder, the second shoulder to get made. So this is the first shoulder, potential head. We're looking for a second shoulder to get made here. It hasn't been made yet. And there's still a chance it could. But obviously you'd need to go back under the 189s and just make that shoulder in order to make a head and shoulders, you know, it had to break the neckline as well. And then it would confirm just like I showed you in RCL has to break the neckline. So that was just our little speculation is that it would it would bounce off this demand. We had a clear lower shadow buyers week here from last Friday. Really nice week push up to the upside. This means that buyers stepped in and pushed it up all the way into the end of the session. And that gave it really good signal for a good reaction to our demand zone. And I was looking for a bounce up to 189. I just didn't put a timeline on it. And it did hit, you know, within three days. So if you just keep your expectations low, don't expect too much from the market, it will surprise you. And last week, it did surprise me because all my price targets on the indexes hit, you know, within two or three days. If you just expect the market to be slow, expect it to be, you know, not give you what you want, it'll surprise you sometimes and it'll feel that much better and you won't be disappointed if it goes wrong as well. Like I said earlier, so now that we pretty much cleared my price target, we need to look at something new here. As long as it stays over this 189.24, I feel pretty, you know, relatively bullish on it. There's really no clear direction here yet. The best trade was off one day demand. You already got that. Now we're kind of at this little supply zone right here. It's a little classic drop based drop zone. So you got a drop base drop, pretty heavy sailing bounce right here. So I need to get over the 192s. That's the supply zone high. If I can get over that, that'll take you to, you know, back to 196, which is your supply zone from February 2023 that we rejected off over here. So that's what you're looking at right now. It needs to stay over 189.24 previous resistance. If we can make that as new support, then break over 192. It could take you up to 196s. So this looks a little bit more clear than SPX and QQQ. I feel like the levels are a little bit more clear. SPX and QQQ are a little bit, a little bit sketchier, honestly, to me. With IWM here, you have a clear, you know, 189.24 structure. If that holds, you can go higher. If that breaks, you can go lower. So your 189.24 is kind of your line in the sand. And then you also have the supply in the way. So if you're bearish and you want to, you know, take puts on IWM, you do have the supply with you. You have that in your favor. But you don't want to wait for 189.24 to get taken out and close under that. Then this would feel back up and go down, maybe make a shoulder. Otherwise, you're going to, you're going to want to wait for 192 to get broken over. And that's a pretty clear shot up to the 196s. So IWM is the waiting game, but there's a little bit more clear of a plan here. I hope that makes sense. You're either waiting for a supply high to get taken out or you're waiting for 192.9.24 to get broken down for downside. So this can go either way. Just wait for a signal. As we're inside supply, you want to wait for the high to get taken out. And likewise, you don't want to take any puts here yet until it takes out. 192.9.24. So that's for IWM. Just wait. Make sure you draw your supply. Also mark your 192.9.24 and just wait for one of those to break. And that will give you a trade. All right, next, we're going into the VIX, which did everything I expected it to. Actually went a little bit lower than I expected, much faster than expected. So last Friday, we closed directly at the 1550s. I mentioned we needed to get under the 1550s in order to see the market go higher and also see volatility start falling. So we got our first close on Monday directly below 1553. That took you to your 2021 low that we cover every week to 1473 in the 1410s. You can see Tuesday, it closed below the 2021 low. Once it closed under that, it closed under the next 2021 low on Wednesday right here. Once it closed under that, it was just a straight shot to 1273. So you do have closes under each of the levels every single day starting from Monday. So you got to close under the 1550s Monday. Close under the first 2021 low Tuesday. Close under the second 2021 low Wednesday. And that was your final final zone to close under in order to take you to 1273 lows. And we're starting to get there. We're at 1382. Actually, we're much lower than that. So trading view is wrong here. This is not up 5.66 percent. It's actually close at about the three tens or the 1310s. Very, very low, very close to 1270s, which is your double bottom support right here. So this is where the market starts getting a little bit tricky. You got really low volatility. It makes it much harder to short, but it also makes puts cheaper. So you have to decide, do you want to get cheap hedges? And the answer is yes, you usually want to start small when volatility is this low because they're still upside risk, especially when the VIX is this low. And we got down there really fast. So we went from 15s to lower 13s within a week, which is pretty big drop. So this will kind of go hand in hand with our SPX analysis. If you really wanted to trade the SPX or swing, you want to see signals from the VIX, if you want to take puts at the supply that we're looking at the one week supply zone, you need to see 1273 holding a support. You need to see like a clear candle, like one like this. And you also would need to start reclaiming the 20, 21 lows as well. So that's where it gets tough if you want to short because you are going against volatility, which is screaming much lower. But this 1273 huge level, this can likely hold up even this general area, this 13 to 1273 can definitely hold up and volatility, you know, because you're back up to the 14, which is your 20, 21 lows. Market can't go any higher, really. Well, it can, but it likely won't go any higher until it breaks under the 1273. Under the 1273, it'd be huge. That means you're breaking VIX lows that we haven't seen in years, just like we did back here. And then we made that solid base at 1273. So you can imagine if 1273 gets broke, that would likely take the SPX much higher, we could probably start seeing the 52 week highest on SPX. You know, the top wicks started, you know, starting to get tested. So with 1273 coming up, I definitely wouldn't buy calls yet because this starts holding up here. The market is just going to, you know, rug pull you. It starts holding up at 1273 and now let's pick up on the 1273. And they start picking up puts. The VIX starts getting big back up. You're definitely going to wish you didn't buy calls because very, very low. So what you want to do is wait for 1273 to get taken out. 1273 starts getting taken out. Then you can start looking at, you know, calls on SPX maybe or, you know, the spy or the S&P with a little bit more confidence because you're starting to break that low. If you get under that low, it's a pretty good signal. And, you know, if you have other things falling through, like the dollar going lower, which hasn't followed the VIX at all, actually has done the opposite. That would be good as well. You want to see the dollar and the VIX both going lower for the market to go higher. It's just good. Maybe even yields as well. You want to see, you know, the 10 year going down as well. So this 1273 is obviously the level of focus this week. And then just above it is just, you know, 1410. And that's where that's what we're between right now. So you just want to wait for that to get taken down to be bullish on the market. You want to see a break first or you want to see it hold up. And likely it's going to try to hold up. I don't think it's just going to bust right through. It's probably going to try to hold up on the shorter term time frames. The question is, will it, you know, fall through though? And that's what you have to kind of figure out once it happens. So what the way to take us to the 1273 you can probably just watch 13 flat as well. So just draw, you know, 13 flats at 1273 and just watch the area. If it starts holding up, that's a pretty good sign that, you know, maybe the VIX is not going to give up yet. But I just personally, I would be careful, you know, just don't jump in anything yet. Either wait for the 1273 to be taken out to be a little bit more bullish on the market or wait for, you know, a signal that it's starting to hold up. So that's my opinion this week. Obviously not as clear cut as it was last week. And that's for a reason. And I showed you why. I mean, the SPX is at supply. It's made range as well. There's really no good signal on it. Same with the KQQ VIX starting to approach lows coming up to a big level, a big, you know, indecision area, a big inflection point. You want to wait. You want to see what it does at this area first for making any decisions. So 1273 in focus, really big level. Either want to see a breaking or holding up here. All right. And last but not least, going into the DXY. So I think last week I mentioned towards the end of the video, my final thoughts on DXY was just looking for a little pullback into one of three fifties and I probably try to hold up there. It actually broke under that. But held up at our 2020 covid peak at 103 flat that we cover literally basically every week, your most important point. And I've explained why it's your most important point a bunch of times. But either way, you can see why it's important. The last couple of weeks, last month, 103 held up here. 103 held up again right here, absolutely ripped off of it. So if you've been paying attention to the DXY, you would have known for a fact that 103 was a huge support and there's a good chance they could hold up and be back up. And that probably wouldn't be good for the markets, at least for equities. If you didn't know the DXY and equities usually have an inverse correlation. So if the dollar goes up, market's going to go lower and vice versa. But it just depends. As you can see, Friday, you know, it's up point six percent and market, you know, close up flat point to actually wasn't even down that bad. It did sell off from the non-farm payrolls data. So this little dropper here is probably what caused the DXY spike. But then it held up structure really well and VIX really didn't do anything. So it could have gone a lot worse. You know what I mean? The DXY being up point six percent anywhere from half a percent to point seventy five is huge for the dollar. And that usually brings big volatility into equities. But it really wasn't that bad on Friday, considering how strong the dollar closed. So we're actually in the same spot that we were last week when we were looking at this. So here's where we were on Friday. We closed here literally the same exact spot. So we closed at one of four twenties or so. We're at one of four sixteen. So we're at the same spot, just kind of a different structure. We have clear, clear bullish momentum off one of three. And these last two days right here from the data did kind of give us that boost. But either way, we still have this one of four forties as a new area of resistance. And we also have one of four sixties. So if we do base out here, maximum I can see it, you know, is, you know, one of four sixties and then probably try to reject about there. If the dollar does shoot up here and run up into there, obviously that can bring the market down. But this is a pretty big area of resistance. So I can't really expect too much. Everything's at an inflection point right now. You got VIX coming up to lows. You got DXY at major resistance. It's just an inflection point for the market. You got the indexes that supply. It might be just wise to just wait for swing trades. Wait for a signal, something a little bit more clear. Like this was a good rejection, a great clear rejection that the dollar was going to go lower. Something like that are like a nice bullish candle, right off this 103. This is a nice signal that it could go higher. Look for something like that. These little dookie bars right here, these little small pipsqueaks. Not really going to give you much. So you need to see those one day bars, a little bit more full, a little bit more clear signals, right? And we need to see that, you know, to make kind of make a decision here. But either way, we know for a fact, one of four forties to one of four seventies, big resistance could reject about there with your max point being up at one of four seventies, which comes from over here. So like I said, everything's at an inflection point. I showed you every single inflection point, VIX 12 seventies low. We got DXY at the 104 is big resistance indexes that supply at resistance. So you got to be careful and you want to wait for a signal. And not only that, we have a very quiet week in terms of data. So we might not see much currency volatility this week. Another reason why we could just see a base out here kind of consolidate. Like I said, the ISM services and the services PMIs that can move us, that could, you know, bring some currency volatility. But otherwise very quiet week and it's also a shortened week. So just trade safe, you know, don't force anything. Once we start getting into October market starts getting a little bit better historically, you know, with October coming up, it could be looking for some discounts for your long term portfolio. And you can see we do average a great rally once October starts coming. So August, September, very slow guys usually. And sometimes it can be very volatile because of the thin trading low bids and offers takes less to move the market. And that brings wild swings. Just another reason to, you know, be careful. But either way, final thoughts on dollar maximum. I can see it, you know, 104 seventies. I would try to reject about there. But I also kind of expected maybe to, you know, reject at the 104 forties as well. Just this general area of 104s, you know, it can reject anywhere. It doesn't have to be exactly on point. I would just view this 104s as, you know, potential area that can reject that big for the market, you know, market could start breaking through the supply. And also that would take, you know, maybe that take the VIX lower and break the 12 seventies as well. But I want to see VIX breaking the 12 seventies. I want to see DXY rejecting here. And I feel really good about market going higher. So this week, I'm definitely going to be looking at, you know, more of the extra indicators and not just, you know, paying attention to levels of paying attention to everything because we are at an inflection point on multiple things. So that's the video guys. Hope you guys enjoyed. Make sure you like, comment and subscribe to our Xtrees YouTube channel. I'm going to get this chopped up, edited and sent out. I love you guys and I'm out.