 You have a big, big formula for more selling. Again, the market, and as we all know this, the market could turn around at any given point, but that's kind of at least what the narrative has been the first week or so. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody has a good start to their weekend and welcome to 2022. So the first week of 2002 is in the books, right? Is in the books, hopefully some of you guys kicked off the year on a very, very good note. Again, that covers every aspect of your life, health, monetary, and just pure happiness. If you haven't a rough start to the year, just remember it's a year, right? It's a year, it's a week, it's a long journey in your life, and I've been kind of reiterating this point many, many times. Nothing is going to define you. Not any individual invent, not individual trade is ever going to define you. Your relationships, the love that you have for your family and friends, that's the ultimate testing ground of how successful your life is. And trading is exactly the same way, and we've been saying this for years. There is no, there is no magical number, okay? That how many weeks, how many years that you're trading that it's finally gonna all click in and you're just gonna wake up one day and go, ah, I got it, right? There is no, everybody matures differently. Everybody is gonna have a completely different journey, a completely different story to tell as they develop, and when you're looking back at your early part of your career, 10, 15, 20, 30 years down the line, you're gonna really appreciate the journey. Some people hit the ground running very, very quickly, start really having a pretty good career first two, three years. Others takes a long, long time, and again, I keep on reiterating the point. Don't put pressure. Again, there is no set timeline. Don't put pressure on yourself as long as you continue to practice the proper way of putting in the research, putting in the really good habits, not being affected by opinions, sticking to technical analysis, eventually it's all gonna make sense, right? Eventually it's gonna all sink into your subconscious and then you start your career. And eventually you'll have that aha moment at three o'clock in the morning of all the little tidbits and nuances and all the different things you went through and picked up along the way and it's finally gonna make sense. And that's when this business starts to be pretty cool, but the most important part, don't put a lot of pressure on yourself. Everybody is going to have, like I said, a different story to tell. Your story should be individual. Time is on your side. And the most important part is you're going to develop when it's your time. So be very aware of that. Continue to believe in God that he or she will push in the right direction and just continue to believe in yourself. So let's talk about the market. So first weeks in the books, what really stood out this week was the NASDAQ names, 4.5% decline going into the final week. Again, you hear a lot of traders talk about this. While the last couple of weeks of the fourth quarter are super bullish, usually generally, right? First couple of weeks during the first quarter of January are very bullish, sort of generally, right? There's nothing set in stone. But just keep this in the back of your mind. Nothing has to happen, right? The market that I knew 20 years ago was different than the market I knew 10 years ago. The market that I knew 10 years ago was completely different where it is not. And now you have more opportunities of disconnecting the market than uniform moves all across all the indexes. So if I give you a perfect example, that that was pretty much flat on the week. And led by names, for example, like Boeing and names, for example, like Caterpillar that we covered in the last week in update. Deer, right? These names are very, very strong. The oil names, if you look at the OIHs, the oil names, they kind of carry the doubt to kind of a flat scenario for the week. But when you look at the speculation money, right? When you look at the names that are associated with growth, they painted a different picture. And when you look at the NASDAQ composite, we'll talk about the NASDAQ 100 right now, it's a completely different story. 4.5% decline. There was an obvious, obvious strike, right? There was an obvious buyer strike. The growth names continued to be so, but it's not even the new growth names. They know that everybody in 2021 was so in love with with the affirms of the world and the UPSTs of the world and the letter U's of the world and even a name like NET. I mean, look at the destruction here. You're talking about a stock that got cut in half from November 18th. This isn't like going back two years. This has got cut in half just in a couple of months. So the story is very aggressive to the downside. And when we started the week and we talked about the beginning of the week, people were watching the videos all throughout the week, it's been obvious sell buyers because your favorite stocks, and again, it doesn't make a difference what your favorite stock is, it's being sold, right? Nothing is being held back. Again, when you have a 4.5% decline and then you have your Fed in the middle of the week, talking about now a March rate hike and you have the Treasuries, you have a big, big formula for more selling. Again, the market, and as we all know this, the market could turn around at any given point, but that's kind of at least what the narrative has been the first week or so. If you do trade Caterpillar, if you do trade Deer and the bowings of the world and oils, again, you're having a different conversation. Your Saturday is completely different than the people who are long Amazon, the people who are long Tesla, maybe not long Tesla here or down there, but some were here in the last couple of weeks. When you look at Microsoft, like look at the decline Microsoft has had. This isn't a growth story that is sitting there with $500,000 in the bank, right? This is Microsoft, I mean, look at the decline. Microsoft has gone from 341 to 310 in a matter of a week and a half. That's a pretty big move. And then when you start looking at names that had big, big growth stories years ago, they are underneath the 200 moving average. So technology has a big problem on its hands and not every stock has broken down already. There's a lot of names that are still holding up, but not holding up to the point of go higher. They're holding it up until the next wave of sellers come in. So for example, like look at Nvidia, right? Nvidia is sitting on the bottom of this whole channel here. It's been sitting there pretty, pretty aggressively and they've been defending prices all the way if you go back to the November four lows, right? But look at the data that happened this week. And again, I understand that option flow is not 100% accurate. We know this. For example, going back two weeks ago, if you guys remember, they were coming for the 300, the 310s, the 315, the 320, the 325 calls and we're talking about a stock right now in the 270s, but this week, if you believe in the theory that price action occurs during, you know, during a very aggressive deep out of the money call buying with short-term expiration, well now they're coming for the other half of the equation, right? For this week, we started seeing for the 14th expiration, which was Friday, we started seeing 265. We started seeing 260 put buyers pretty aggressively. Even the Teflon name that rally and led that last month, month and a half worth of upside, Apple, right? And Apple, this is, you know, it broke the bottom, you know, if you follow this whole wedge here, it finally broke below it and now put two days in a row underneath it. And again, if you believe in the theory, stocks trade from supply to supply, when that's the opposite, stocks trade from demand and all the way to demand. So there's a lot of names that either are on the chopping block or saw very, very aggressive selling throughout the last couple of weeks. It's just not even the first week of the market has been the last couple of weeks or so. So the whole narrative of, you know, the Santa Claus rally, you see, Santa Claus rally has been for the last five years. Don't let one or two weeks of sell-buy is kind of a trigger your idea that the market was around. The market's still, you know, very, very, very strong from the macro point of view. If you stretch out the weekly charts, but from the day-to-day action, you could clearly see, like I said before, there is a buyer strike, a notable buyer strike, even the names that had the biggest rallies throughout 2021 are being sold. And when you go do your research today, you're not gonna see a lot of technology names that are appealing to the upside. Yeah, I mean, you'll have some names that you'll turn around and say, I know what this looks pretty good, but overall, you're not gonna put yourself in a position, at least, at least I'm not, right? You're not gonna put yourself in a position going through the new week falling in love with the idea that we could rally in technology. Is it possible? Of course, anything is possible, right? That's the whole point. Our job is just to prepare for the data. But yeah, I mean, come Monday morning, you know, the Dow could be up 500 points, the NASA could be up 300 points, and all of a sudden, bias changes like this, just the same way the bias went from, if you guys remember, on January the third, right? The first day back, well, the first day of the year, the bulls reclaimed the five-day moving average only to lose the 50-day moving average two days later. That usually doesn't happen. And if you look at the macro view right now on the NASDAQ 100, you could clearly see the bulls have some work to do, right? The bulls really have some work to do to kind of reclaim back control. And if you look at this whole rising wedge, the low here was the December 20th low of 377. And if you look at Friday's close, this is the second day in a row that we closed below this daily supply. And now this 377 level right now on the Qs is the only thing standing away of having a really, you know, potentially another aggressive week of selling. So we have to be very, very conscious of this area. You can see here, 377.5 was the low on December the 20th. Friday's low was 378. So you could see how important this 377 level is going to be coming up into this week. But it's the individual plays that we have to make sure that we are reading the market the right way. And obviously going into this new week just based on data, just based on a lot of charts. And again, you can see your favorite charts, right? Amazon doesn't look good, right? Tesla that had a great, great run, you know, had a really, really, really great run. You know, it survived Friday on this rising wedge. But look what happens. If Tesla does start confirming Friday's channels, I mean, look how much room you have down. So Tesla's going to need to, you know, really reclaim this 1095, 1100 area on the close to kind of engulf the selling that we saw in the last, you know, three, four days going into the first week of the year. A name like NVIDIA, as we talked about here, this thing is literally one day away coming below this whole channel here to start a pretty aggressive decline back into a considering more rising wedges. So it's very, very important. Names like Dock U, which I'm very, very surprised, they didn't take and retest the earnings lows sooner. You know, it blew up on earnings and literally since, let's see here, since December. So you're talking about a full month of distribution, but look what happens. And this has been one of my favorite plays. If you've been kind of watching 2021 videos, you kind of know that once a stock blows up on earnings and the first close below the earnings lows, that's kind of been kind of one of my favorite swing shorts for a while now because it's giving you two, three, four, five days in a row of just drifting action once it confirms the bottom channel here. And you can see there's tons of examples of this for 2021. So here is Zillow, right, blew up. And for the next, you know, once it took out those lows, you know, went literally, you know, two weeks of selling. You look at names, for example, like Wayfair did exactly the same thing, Fubu, right? Fubu, Fubu, right? It blew up on earnings. It took out the lows, started coming in very, very aggressively. And there was just a lot of names, like a ton of names through 2021 that did exactly the same thing. So, you know, I'm watching Dock U. Again, maybe it doesn't, maybe it doesn't do it this week. Maybe it doesn't even do it at all. But if it starts, you know, if it starts confirming on the close the earnings lows, it's going to trigger an active swing. But there are some names to the upside that look pretty good, that have nothing to do with technology. Look at Ford. Again, Ford and General Motors, although not sexy compared to like Alucid, we'll get to that in a second, Alucid or a Tesla, they're going to have a dominant, dominant presence in this whole EV market. And if you look at General Ford and General Motors, that's a really, really good run. So, look at the letter, you know, look at Ford, right? Look at Ford. Obviously, the value on Ford is any dip into the rising five-day support. Because you see the last time it dipped, right? You see this candle here? Last time it dipped into five-day support, it held it and started moving back up. If Monday it could get into five-day support, then keep an eye on this thing for a possible bounce. If not, watch the top of the channel here. Because again, if they start introducing more, more models, blah, blah, blah, blah, you know, they are going to be a pretty, pretty solid player in the EV game for many years to come. Even a name like Amgen, again, you know, tech not included in this conversation. Amgen had a great, great run from the November 30 lows, and now it's just kind of consolidating underneath the supply. If it starts taking out this whole channel here, again, this has nothing to do with Amazon. This thing has nothing to do with NVIDIA or Square, right? This is a biotech. So, if this thing starts clearing out this whole channel, maybe this thing starts a multi-week run back to the upside. You know, that looks pretty good. Lucid, right? Here's another name. Lucid had a nice little pop here on Friday, one of the very few names that actually stood out to the upside, but it stopped right at the 50-day moving average. If Lucid can start reclaiming back the 50-day moving average. We did see short-term 43, 44, $45 call buyers come in, and you can see here, if it could just start reclaiming 40, if it could start reclaiming the 50-day moving average on the close, you got a lot of upsuck, right? It had a really, really strong run towards in November of last year. This sounds very, very silly still to say. It's only been a couple of months, but you know, you can see that in November runs highs. So, maybe this thing could trigger back to the upside. And one other name that I kind of like, look at this Holix, right? Look at this Holix, check this out. So, it had this, and again, when I say like, not to the upside, it had this, you know, really, really ugly run, really ugly move, going back to October, rallied a little bit, got rejected at the top of the supply, and look at the last two day, look at last week, two monster, monster candles down. I wanna see this thing kind of go sideways for a couple more days, but if this thing starts taking out the bottom channel here, you got some pretty good, you got some good ping pong action, potential happening this thing, to going down to this range here, and if it obviously closes below this range here, then obviously you have a huge, huge potential next leg down. So guys, remember, there's an old adage in trading. Again, many of the wives tales, they say, they say, so go the first year, first week of the new year, so goes the market, don't believe that, right? 2018, we had a horrific end to the fourth quarter, we had a horrific start to the start of the first quarter of 2018, we had a really, really aggressive rally for the rest of the year, so four and a half percent on the queues, not a small thing, right? But it's really not the end of the world, it's all about the individual plays, it's all about your individual approach, your individual process, and eventually your ability to stay in business. Guys, have a great, great week, have a great, great weekend. I wish you guys nothing but the best health and happiness, and with God's help, I'll see you all on Monday. Take care.