 Great. Welcome everybody to the live stream. So today, what I want to do is talk to you a little bit about the macro to take a look at exactly what's going on in not just the crypto space, but in the global environment. And what we're going to talk about today is that there's been a couple of calls for a US recession. And on this channel, we usually try to talk a lot about crypto and digital asset news. But as this comes forth, this is going to affect everyone and everything inside. And I want to give you a little bit more information as to what is going on. So as time goes on, you don't flip out and try to think yourself, wow, I should really sell everything. Now, I can't give any advice, but there's a lot of information. So let's just jump right into it. So first of all, we're going to take a look at Deutsche Bank as they call for a US recession. And we're going to take a look and just talk about their points as to why they think it actually is. Then we're going to take a look at just to define what a recession is and some indicators that you really actually have to know to quantify that. And lastly, we'll take a look at some a little bit of knowledge from Peter Lynch and the good news. And what I like to say is what would LFG wallet do? So we'll take a look at all those things. And at the end, we'll do five questions in five minutes, because I'm sure you're going to have some of the variants a whole of your questions until the conclusion of the show itself. So also, if you're here for the live stream, welcome. Thanks for stopping by on a Sunday. I appreciate it. If you're here for the replay, just know it's going to be timestamps below so you can skip around or whatever you want to. News takes about 15 to 20. Then we get in the Q&A at the very end. So let's just jump into it, shall we? This is going to be interesting. That's for sure. So first of all, let's take a look at just the market to give ourselves just a benchmark about what exactly is going on. So today's, I mean, sideways, except for Bitcoin Ethereum, there's some things that are it's kind of choppy in the last 24 hours. I mean, we see that things aren't too bad, actually. A little bit of a decrease, some green here and there. Not too bad. Dogecoin up 6%. That's great. Shiba Inu. And this is, of course, in the last 24 hours, seven days, though, it's been a pretty red, pretty red occurrence as we've taken pretty much of a beating across the board. And that's just how it is. I mean, people thought that the Miami conference would really boost this up and never has before. I don't know why it would happen this time, but that's what we got. So again, when I talk about what's going on and the reason why I'm bringing this to everybody's attention is that right now we're kind of following in lock step with Bitcoin and crypto kind of being treated as like tech stocks. And we can see that the same thing with NASDAQ. I mean, they've taken a hit themselves just like we have. And I think that if we take a step back, I think we can all agree that if there is a recession or a depression, which I don't think that's going to go down that way, that I don't think that the crypto market will fare pretty well. I don't know how many people out there are like, Oh, yeah, if we go into recession, crypto should just take off. Usually what happens is there's things are in lockstep. And until we kind of prove that we are a risk off asset, then it's going to be like this for quite some time. So that's what we're talking about today. So here's what's happening in the market itself. So Deutsche Bank came out a couple of days ago and said, Hey, a US recession is imminent, and it's going to happen next year. So we're pretty much halfway through the year. We're in April. This is the fourth month. So next year, at some point, we're going to see some type of recession. So here's what they said. The US will tumble into a recession next year as the Federal Reserve jacks up interest rates to combat high and widening inflation. I think we can all agree that's exactly what's going on. The Fed's going to do that. The question is how many times will they increase those actual interest rates? They see the Fed raising rates by 50 points at each of its next three meetings on its way to a peak above 3.5% by the middle of next year. Goldman Sachs said in a report of money that an economic downturn was far from inevitable because consumers and companies are flush with cash. It's debatable. I mean, we do have a lot of cash, but what is it worth? I mean, the purchasing power has been massively decreased over time, and inflation has really taken us home. Deutsche Forecast, the US Central Bank will reduce its $8.9 trillion balance sheet. Let's say that again, $8.9 trillion balance sheet by almost $2 trillion by the end of next year, meaning they're going to sell off some things. And if you sell off $2 trillion, just think about that for a second. That's essentially the entire crypto market. So if they like just start selling and selling, what do you think that's going to do for the confidence of the market itself? Under the forecast, US employment rises, US unemployment rises sharply to 4.9% in 2024, even though it's at 3.6 right now. We're going to take a look at some of those indicators in a bit. And this is a big thing. I'm going to explain this in detail. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is climbing to 3.3, while stocks suffer a transitory decline on the order of 20% by the summer of 2023. So that's the news itself. And if when you hear these these stories, I know people will think, okay, recession is coming. This isn't good. I need to put myself and not everybody, right? But a lot of people out there because we not everybody's into crypto. A lot of people like I got to start selling some things off and they panic because that's what the market really is just a just a big, massive ball of nervous energy. And when people hear these types of stories, they get, they get scared and what they do they sell off. So I'm trying to give this information. So people, I mean, we're a little bit different, right? Volatility is is in our blood for an crypto. So but this is going to make a little bit more sense. So hopefully you can kind of calm down the people around you. So just real quick, let's take a look at little other piece here, which Deutsche Bank specifically predicted a mild recession with unemployment peaking above 5%. So it's not there like this is going to be the huge recession leading to depression, like it's going to be mild. Just like we saw in 2020. And we'll get to that last last late. So that just brings me to this point, which is this. What's a recession? I mean, we all know like all recessions when there's an economic downturn, we see a lot of different, you know, prices increase, unemployment rates go up. But what is exactly a depression? How do we quantify that? How do we define what a recession is so we can say yes, we are exactly into recession. So real quick, recession, general economic activity, receptions are officially recognized. After two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth rates, and there's really five indicators. So you got the GDP, when it to consecutive time frames to go down, real income. And of course, I can I can tell you that a lot of people are feeling this pinch because the real income is going down as inflation goes up. Manufacturing, and we've seen a lot of different bottlenecks for manufacturing or the actual supply chain routes. Manufacturing, okay, you just can't get it there. Wholesale retail. Sure, both wholesale retail sales just for inflation, CPI PPI. And then the employment rate, I want to focus on this real quick. A high rate of unemployment is a lagging indicator. Usually things go go south real, you know, at some time frame. And then all of a sudden people start losing their jobs. So just know that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. Usually unemployment rates, around 6% are considered problematic. And these are the five things that really goes into a recession. So just so you know, right now, I don't know where you're at. But unemployment rate. I didn't know it was this high. And this is 2009. Well, that was during the last recession. I don't know if I remember that. It went from 4.6 all the way 10%. So one in 10 people were unemployed. And then the unemployment rate over here in April 2020, March 2020, you know, that thing called coronavirus. I don't know if you heard about that. There was a virus. It was real big. That sarcasm. And we had a huge massive unemployment rate. Of course, it's debatable if that's a shadow economy or not. But right now we're hovering around 3.6. And that's when when I said that I'm like, well, you know, 4.4.2 or 4.3 what they call for, is that so much of a big thing? I don't know, but it's enough to say, well, that's that's concerning. And then the next point, GDP. So just so you know, like we talked about those those two consecutive time frames, Q ones, Q2s, threes, fours. When you see a decline in GDP or the growth, the domestic product, this happened in 1970, 74, man, 74, a lot of Q1, Q2, Q3 for four, 1990, one, two, three, four, one again, a year and a half. And this was a big one here, 2008, I think we can all remember that Q4, 2007, Q8, 22, Q3, Q4, almost two years, almost. Then we just have one not too long ago, which I didn't even feel in 2020, Q1. Well, of course, that was the, I believe that was around the pandemic. So sure. So we did feel a little bit of a pinch, but it went away fast. So it's a little bit artificial. And then just to transition from from there to here, just know that when they predict this recession, here is this is from this is GDP, from the, from the Fed, St. Louis. And we can see that GDP is actually doing pretty damn good, going up and up and up. Now, if it starts to stagnate for a couple of couple of quarters, then yes, I'll be one of those those GDPs. And if we take a look at CPI, consumer price index, this is there's two things to look at, just real quick. I think people are feeling this right here. This is, let me blow this up so you can see it. So they're going to start talking about the consumer price index, which is the prices for various items and services and things like that. I've got it right here at all items. But this is not seasonally adjusted. So just so you know, I think we can all, we can all test this, we don't need to see this nice little fancy chart, but we can see that the prices are going up. And one of the things that this is all the items combined, right? And we can see the prices going up because of inflation. I will tell you this though, look at gas, I'm just going to throw up gas here for a second. Gas prices are out of control. Look at this, I don't know the gas prices or where you're at, but I can tell you like in Puerto Rico before we left, it was it was inching up to the $5 mark. And here in Texas is not so bad because we got a lot of drilling, we got the manufacturing plants in Houston, it's much lower than if you go to like Las Vegas. But that's a huge increase as far as like CPI. That's a lagging indicator. And just so you know, this one says not seasonally adjusted. So real quick to explain that because people will throw these out. So just so you know, seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that attempts to measure and move the influences of predictable seasonal patterns, seasonal events include weather harvest holidays, school schedules, because these events follow more or less regular pattern, their influence on statistical trends can be eliminated by seasonally adjusting the stats for month to month. So, you know, like in, like in winter, you're going to use a little bit more natural gas than opposed to the summer where maybe use a little bit more regular electricity, you know, for a season, things like that. So, and of course, food and services, it just depends on on the season itself. So that would lead me to this next one here. The PPI of the producer price index. So that's what the people that actually produce the goods and services, that's much they got to pay. So if they got to start paying a little bit more, and it's going to go into your pocket, and we can see here that, yeah, they're paying just a little bit more. But again, just so you know, this is not seasonally adjusted right here. If we take a look at that for seasonally adjusted for PPI for how much these producers are actually paying for all these goods, foods, energy, everything else, you can still see it's going up a little bit more. So when we take a look at this, it kind of looks a little bleak, right? We're kind of like this going, yeah, this does make sense. This could be a recession and it could happen as smooth as fast as next year, or it could start to really decline. And all of a sudden, we go into it officially in quarter one or quarter two or twenty twenty three. But here's the thing. And this is what I'm getting to the crux of the whole talk and argument is this. I need you to remember a couple of things. First of all, feudal inch, pretty good investor, nationally known, world globally known, said this far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections that has been lost in corrections themselves. So this leads me to a couple of things because you're going to hear about this pretty soon. It's called yield curve inversion. If you haven't heard about this yet, you're going to hear about it a lot this week. So to explain this, it goes like this and blew this up. So the yield curve, US Treasury finances, federal government budget obligations by issuing various forms of debt. That's called the Treasury, the T bills, T bills, two year tenure. So the twenty three trillion Treasury market includes T bills, Treasury bills with maturities from one month to a year, notes from two years to 10 years as well as 20 and 30 year bonds. The yield curve plots the yield of all Treasury securities. Typically, the curve slopes upwards because investors expect more compensation for taking on the risk. That means a 10 year note typically yields more than a two year note because it's got a longer duration, a little bit more risk, right? So a steepening curve typically signals expectations of stronger economic activity, higher inflation of the higher interest rates. Flattening curve can mean the opposite. Investors expect great hikes in the near term and have lost confidence. So that's normally what happens. But there's this thing that just happened on Tuesday called the inverted curve. And investors watch parts of the yield curve as a recession indicators, primarily the two to 10 year curves. On Tuesday, the two and 10 year curve inverted, meaning yield on the two year Treasury were higher than the 10 year Treasury. That's a warning sign, because usually it should be much higher for the 10 year, like we just talked about, but it inverted. So what this means? The US curve is inverted before each recession since 1955. Let me say that again. The US curve has inverted before each recession since 1955, with the recession falling between six and 24 months. It offered a false signal just once in that time. So there was a screw up one time, there was an inversion, didn't happen. But every single time it's 1955, it has. There have been 28 instances since 1900s where the yield curve is inverted. And 22 of these recessions fall. So even going back over 100 plus years, it's pretty accurate. The lag between curve inversion and the start of a recession is average about 22 months, two years. That's just the average. So in the last time, the part of the yield curve inverted was in 2019. The following year, the United States entered a recession, albeit it was caused by the global pandemic. So again, not too positive, but just wait. So here's something to consider. So you're going to hear about all these things. You're going to hear about all this negativity. You're going to hear about all these things in the news. Black Rock comes in and says no. That's not what it is, because you have to take a look at a couple other things. So US Treasury yield curve has been artificially pressured by some investors. This is Black Rock and their economists. They say that while we are hesitant to say that this time is different, we note that many factors now differ from previous yield curve inversions. Longer dated yields have been pushed artificially low by investors such as pension funds with improved funding status, contributing to the curve inversion. A lot of money was being printed and a lot of that money went to a lot of rich people first and then a trickle down to us. Analysts have said the central banks unprecedented bond purchases as well as excess savings after the corona are holding longer dated yields lower than they would otherwise be. Black Rock charity said more hawkish signals by the central bank rate hikes and balance sheet reduction to fight inflation have contributed to the curve steepening. So again, we know that the feds are going to come out. We know that they're going to raise those rates. We know that they're going to do what's called quantitative tightening, not quantitative easing. We know that there's going to be some problems as far as like with the yield curve because we just saw it. But in the grand scheme of things, is it going to really affect us a long way? Well, the short term potentially long, long term, not so short, which leads me to my last point, which is this. What would LFG do? What would the lunar wallet and actually wallet number three do? Well, I'll tell you after all that news that comes out, I'm sure that they're following these things to Yeah, today's April 10th. They just bought almost 1000 Bitcoin this morning. Actually, I stand corrected. They bought around 2000 Bitcoin. Damn 1500 2500. Whoa, hold on 3500 4000. They've bought around 4000 Bitcoin today. That's not bad, but that's just why it's just Luna, you know, but what about this mysterious wallet number three, which seems to be like things that I'm fascinated with? Well, they've done the same thing. There's been some some not so great news today's Sunday. So this was on Friday. They bought 1775 110 59 and 3000 on April 4th. So again, there's going to be some news that's going to come out and it's up to you to decide like, is this the big end all be all is the recession coming and what should I do? Can't answer that for you. Let's give you the best information I possibly can. So you can make the best decision for yourself and your family. And that's it. I can tell you what I'm going to do. I'm not here for next month a year from now. I'm here for three to five years, just like I've been before. I always see things as like around three or four year blocks. I just tell you, we're going to see a lot of volatility, but I've seen a long run, some massive asymmetrical bets. That's what we have for today. So look, that's it for today. So for the news, if you like today's video, thumbs up, subscribe, all that great stuff. Now let's break into the five questions in five minutes and we'll get out of here. Here we go. Let me break this down. All right. There's always a lag between the time when I ask for questions and when people actually get them out there. So let me just peruse the chats. Who says this? That's good. Mustapha says, always do opposite of a black rock on the trade, if I said. They also say the same thing about Jim Kramer. They said, if I think there was somebody who was on Twitter who said that that the exact opposite of what Jim Kramer did, they made a boatload of money. I thought it was pretty fine. What's up, Mullet? Let's give a round of applause for Mullet for being a great moderator, kicking out of the trash. You guys are ruthless. Yeah, you're welcome. Sure do. Oh, that's a good question. Question number one, what does ETH price have to be to get margin call for 1,000? So I collateralized, I think it was triple the collateral for Ethereum. And if you don't know what we're talking about here, there was a video that we did where we talked about how we funded the house in Puerto Rico. We had to get crypto loans because we had to pay everything in cash. Because to get a house over there, it's like act of God. And to get a loan, you better know Jesus himself. So on this one, we actually just did it with straight cash and we collateralized our crypto. So the margin calls are around, I want to say around 2, 300 somewhere around there. And I've had a couple of margin calls already because remember when things were going down, I did the collateralization in December, late November, early December can't remember. They had early December, first week of December. And that was when I was doing pretty well. And then it dropped a little bit so I had to recollateralize. And they said, if you don't do it, it will liquidate you. And don't ever get liquidated on a loan. Because remember, loans for crypto are not a taxable event. It's not a capital gains event. But it is taxable if you get liquidated. So make sure you try to do that. That is really investment advice, honestly. I got to tell you. That part right there, don't get liquidated. That's investment advice. And I'm not a financial advisor. I just tell you that's what I would do. And Dan said, I think we're already in recession. It feels like it, doesn't it? I mean, those prices are crazy. But again, look at that criteria, those five criteria is GDP, unemployment growth, CPI, PPI, and go from there. It's coming. It always is, right? And the thing is, for recessions, we know they're coming. Nothing goes up forever. So it's all about how you play it. And that's why over the last 17, 19, 19, 20, 21, four and a half, five years or so, I haven't just been in crypto. I do other things, the businesses and the real estates and things like that. I really do think that people should have a little more harder assets than just putting everything into crypto. Yes, it's an asymmetrical bet, but there are lean times. To get from 2018 to here, it took a long time. And just to rely just on crypto, I don't think is the best thing to do. I think you should get out there and do other things. I can't give you advice, but that's like what I would tell kids and stuff like that. So that's what I got. And actually, it also makes you a little bit more calm. When you know you have other assets, you know, like you have land and you have, I mean, if you're gold and silver too, hey, sure. If you have properties, if you have other streams of revenue, it makes you calm when you see like the crypto market drop like 30% a day, you're like, well, that sucks. I mean, it'll come back, but I mean, no big deal because like I'll just go over here for this stuff. So it's always good to have hands in different baskets. That's right. DR says, please don't take financial advice for someone needing to collateralize for a home loan. Yeah, don't take advice from me. Couldn't have said it better. 18, 19, 20, 21. Well, four and a half years. 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021. Four years, four and a half years. And right, none of this is financial advice. Giovanni says, do you think we'll see another all-time high for Bitcoin before it crashes here? What would push it up? I'm going to ask you guys a question. What would push up the Bitcoin price to all-time highs? 69,000. We're at what, 43,000? What would do it? Is there going to be an avalanche of retail investors to come in, even though they're going to hear nothing but recession stories over the next months? Is it going to be institutions that are just going to fomo in, even though we don't have regulatory clarity? Is it going to be sovereign nations that are going to come in and make it legal tender because of what's going on, even though they have super uncertainty with the war that's going on in Ukraine and Russia and how that could actually branch out? I don't see an all-time high coming this year, unless something, some major event happens, like another big nation comes out and says, or countries come out and says, we're going to make this legal tender. Or a central bank puts it and says, we are actively investing into Bitcoin. Or a major, major company comes out like an Amazon and says, hey, we're putting this on our balance sheet. That's the only way I see it happen. I don't see retail pushing it up to the likes of a 3.2 trillion market cap when we hit 69,000 for Bitcoin. I just don't see it happen. I could be wrong. Hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong, man. So Car Set says, hey, Dan, since you're in real state, what's your take on real estate and investment trusts or REITs? It's a good way to do it if you don't want to get. It's like getting into the S&P 500 kind of sort of. It's a trust. And what you can do is they're going to buy a bunch of properties and then you can actually put in that and then they manage it and you can just gain yield on that. That's fine. If you just want to make those types of gains, what I like about property itself is the tax advantages that you can get for like, let's say this house, this house over 30 years depreciates. I get to use that depreciation in my taxes to offset some of the gains that I have. And I really appreciate those things and I like those laws that work here. Also, what's great about houses and if you're talking about generational wealth, you can put these houses into a trust. And then of course, when you put them into a trust, it's like a corporation and you can pass them on to your kids and they don't have to pay outrageous taxes because it's in a trust. And now you just name a new CEO. You were the CEO. Now your kid's the CEO. Kind of like that. So I don't really, I'm not a big, I'm like REITs are fine if you want to get into it. It's just I like just to get the house, buy the house, do short-term rentals, get people in there and then go from that. I will say this though. There is two ways to do short-term rental. And this is off topic. One way is to buy houses and then get short-term rentals, Airbnb, Verbo. And the other way is to rent a house from somebody and then put it on and then make a specific contract with the owner and say, I'm going to rent this house from you for a month, whatever it is, a thousand bucks, but I'm going to put on Airbnb and Verbo. If you do that, just know there's a super high risk and you're going to, you're going to see those things all the place. People lost their tail in 2020 when the coronavirus came about because nobody was traveling. And what a lot of people were doing was that they were, they were renting houses from people and they were putting them on Airbnb. And they had like a hundred different houses. They're making a bunch of money. But then when that happened, they're like, hey, you can even pay this rent. You need to pay this mortgage. Like why I got no travelers and they defaulted. So just know that there's a lot of ways to do that. But I don't like, I like to own it and then rent them out. That's it. Gosh, that was a rant. It didn't need to be done. Let's see. Question number three, what coins do you have? I got a lot of coins. So let's see. Let's, let's share my screen. This ought to be fun, huh? So I own Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether. I just got Binance Coin yesterday because I needed to send USDC over the Binance Smart Chain and need BNB for gas to do that. Big hassle. I own USD. I own Solana, XRP, Terra, Cardano, Avalanche, Polkadot. I sold on my Dogecoin a long time ago. I don't have any of this. Don't have any of this. I don't have Shiba. I don't have Kronos. I have Nier. I have Polygon. I don't have that. I got Cosmos, Chainlink, Algorand. I still own some Stellar, but I only have that in Celcius just to gain yield. Uniswap, that airdrop they did, I never sold it. That was awesome. So I just don't sell it. Theta, Decentraland, Sandbox, Phantom, Ave, Iota for some reason. T-Fuel, Gala, Engine, Chili's, Celcius. I own Bat just because they gave it to me. That's it for the top 100. So I'll be answering your question. Now the real question is what's the percentage of what I own? Yeah, I got a lot, but it's not like I own like $100,000 in each one of those. You got to remember it's a percentage. Question number four, good question. What happened to your weekly Friday as a Benjamin Cohen and James? Did they disappear? So we did the DCA show. It was me, James and CTO Larson on the last two weeks. Two weeks ago was on James and then last week was at CTO Larson's channel. This week will be on my channel. So Ben was traveling. He went to Miami and he didn't have the time to do the show. So he's got kids and he had a lot of different things. So we, you know, he said, I'll be back and maybe I think he's back this week. But so we just brought in CTO Larson. That's it. And then, and then, thanks. Do your grandkids watch it? Yeah, grandkids watch the videos and they always, I think it's, it's what's weird because like grandkids, they don't care what you do, right? But if you're on YouTube, you're like the coolest because that's what kids are into. They're like, you know, they're like, oh, you're your YouTuber. Wow, like what's his favorite one? Mr. Beast, Mr. Beast and unspeakable. So yeah, why so many? Last, this is the last question. Why so many tokens? Cause sometimes I get ahead of myself and I just keep them. They're all and they're all pretty much in profit. So I'm just, I have a, my thing is this, is that I don't know, let me turn this off. This'll be the last one. I don't know which one's gonna make it, right? I have no idea which one of these tokens, especially L1s are gonna make it. Even, even Mr. Wonderful, Dennis Salieri says, he goes, I don't know which is gonna, I mean, he's been investing forever. It's like, I don't know if it's gonna be Ethereum or it's gonna be Solana or it's gonna be Algorand or whatever he's into. He goes, I have no idea. He goes, I don't need them all to make it. I just need a couple to make it. And then the asymmetrical bet will pay off big time. He's right. That's why I own a bunch of different cryptos. I don't know which one here, I have no idea. I mean, I look at them and say, well, maybe this'll do well in this world. And I always look at the UTT, the utility, what does it do? Is it special in some way? Does it actually have a purpose? What are the tokenomics who's gonna dump on me? And then the team, how good is the team? What have they done before and where are they going? So I take a look at those things and that's when you can see things on my channel. Actually, I forgot to mention this. This is kind of important. So I have a second channel. It used to be called Dan Clips. Now we call it Dan Dejan because we just take a look at different upcoming projects. Here is just all news and I take a look at some more riskier plays. And I think as time goes on, I think some risky plays could play out but just expect to lose everything. So like on these ones, we'll take a look at some other projects that I'll dump probably 5% of my portfolio into and go from there. But yeah, to answer your question, as time goes on, I think that some of these plays will pay off big time and I'll just have bottom. It's almost like Dogecoin. The Dogecoin millionaires, they bought Dogecoin that has forgot about it for like six years or whatever. And then all of a sudden it goes up to, I think it hit almost 67 cents. Instant millionaires, they didn't have to do anything. They just waited. And that's the bigger thing. Time in the market is more important than time in the market. That's all I got for you. All right, so that's it for today. So look, thanks so much for stopping by on a Sunday. I appreciate it. If you liked this video, thumbs up. Also consider subscribing. Glad to talk about our time sensitive. That's it for today. So thanks so much for watching. I do appreciate it and I'll see you on the next one. Adios.