 Water, water everywhere, at least almost everywhere around California, one to two weeks of rain coming our way. A lot of people have questions. What is this rain? What are these storms going to do for us? What will they do to us? What are the impacts and what should you do to prepare yourself? Well, luckily, we have some experts coming up next right here on OES News in depth. All right, Sean Boyd here at Cal OES headquarters in Sacramento, California. We are Skyping right now at the National Weather Service Sacramento office and we have four experts who have joined us to talk about the weather, this crazy weather that we're having right now. With us is Alan Haynes from the National Weather Service California Nevada River Forecast Center. Liz Bryson from the Department of Water Resources as well as Brooke Benjamin and Michelle Meade both from the Sacramento office. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for being here with us today on this lovely, lovely wet day. Welcome. Thanks for having us. Hey, we appreciate it. Listen, obviously the reason we called you up today, we wanted to talk about this very wet weather that we're having. We've been used to drought for the last several years obviously here in California. This to me, it reminds me of what we used to get. Is this normal? Is this what our normal used to be? Well, you kind of have to put normal into context. This particular storm that we're currently seeing right now would be constituted as a normal storm. However, the system, the weather system that we're looking at for this weekend is one of those out of the average storms, meaning we haven't seen rainfall rates or runoff potential in 10 to 15 years and in some locations 25 years. There's that much moisture that's going to be coming into central and provisions of Northern California this coming weekend. Okay, so what you're saying then is this heavy precipitation is going to affect California as a whole, both from Northern California through the central coast all the way down to Southern California. Am I getting that right? Yeah, there are going to be more winter impacts across the Pacific Northwest and then the very wet heavy precipitation is more from the central and southern Sacramento valleys into the San Joaquin valleys and then also into the Sierra Nevada, central and southern Sierra Nevada. Okay, now one of the things that I've been reading about is this elusive and mysterious atmospheric river. We've heard about this, especially going back to December a couple of years ago when we had some very strange, well, we had a lot of weather that came through Northern California in December and then for the El Nino, we had an atmospheric river that kind of fell apart. What is an atmospheric river? Tell me if you would in everyday average Joe terms and what does it mean to our weather pattern and what we're getting right now? The easiest definition I think, go ahead Brooke. I was just going to say an atmospheric river is basically a very long plume of moisture that travels across the Pacific Ocean and then when it hits the West Coast, wherever it hits along the West Coast, then that's where the brunt of the storm occurs. It's typically a very narrow band of very heavy precipitation. Okay, good. So how is this atmospheric river, this band of precipitation, what does it have in store for us and how far out can you predict? How far can we predict it? Well, there's pretty good confidence that in the next seven day forecast that this is definitely going to be impacting California and in terms of what this will bring, the major impacts of course are going to be widespread flooding that occurs, especially across where the actual plume hits, which will be generally from the I-80 corridor southward from about Tahoe to Kings Canyon if you want cities to kind of put it in perspective. And besides widespread flooding, that's urban flooding, that's small stream flooding, that's our main rivers that are also going to be flooding. The soils are already saturated from the current or from the recent storm that we just had. So there's also going to be a higher likelihood for mudslides, debris flows, power outages. So there really is going to be a wide array of impacts to California. And really obviously it depends on where you live depending on the level of flooding and the type of flooding that you may or may not encounter. You were saying that this is a once in a 10 to 25 year kind of a storm. That takes us back to 1997. And if anybody was here in 1997, obviously from December into January we had great snowfall in December and then the snow elevation, if I'm memory serves right, kind of raised a little bit, went a little higher and then things started to melt quite a bit. Then we had the massive flooding that we did all over California, especially from the central up north and I guess some down south. But is that what we're preparing ourselves for now is maybe something that could potentially arrive to that magnitude? There will be certain areas in the Central Valley, the Cosumnes River, Old Ferry, Hamilton City, there are areas that are already running high and the amount of snowfall, like you mentioned, we've gotten some pretty good snowfall just in the last 24 to 48 hours that it's going to continue into tonight. So we are going to see some elements of the January 97, but I don't think it's going to be as widespread, but folks who do have a memory of 97, especially like I said in the southern Sacramento Valley and the San Joaquin Valley, we do anticipate the impacts there to be a little more intense just because of the saturated soils and the flat nature of the valley down there. There's really no place for that water to go once the rivers and streams are filled. Is that correct, Liz? Pretty much. Yeah. And Liz, again, is from the Department of Water Resources. OK, so we just go ahead and add something here. Yes. Regarding this, you know, a lot of a lot of times people are concerned about the snowfall, the lower and mid elevation snow that fell. They look at the 97 event and see that, you know, think of that as a big contributor. It is a contribution, but it's not as big as maybe you might think because the physics involved you're looking at. There's not a lot of heat and cold rain, so you're not really melting a lot of snow, but the little bit, you know, shallow snow layer in the mid and lower elevations, especially that can add a little bit, maybe on the order of 10 percent to the volume, the main impact of the rising freezing levels with these atmospheric river events is that you're the whole basin is contributing runoff because water is flowing through the snowpack at higher elevations and down into the base and into the river systems. And that's where we really get the biggest effect is just is having the whole basin contribute to runoff. Right. Now, since we're talking about elevations and snowpack, they just conducted, I believe, the latest or first one of the year, I guess, the snowpack measurement analysis. What can you tell me about from a meteorologist's point of view, looking at the drought, looking at the water content? What are you seeing now? And what is it telling you? So, yeah, the snowpack is running below normal in terms of water content for this time of year. If you look at we've had a lot of warm systems so far this year, so a lot of it has been liquid. And we've been fortunate in a way that reservoirs been low. So in terms of runoff, we've got wet basins, we've got full or we will have full reservoirs for what we can store for this time of year. What we we will be adding snowpack this week, which will help. What we're going to have to look for down the road is you want a bigger snowpack that will be able to runoff and recharge the reservoirs in the spring and early summer. That has yet to be determined. I think it will it happens to some degree farther south in this year, but up north here, we probably want to see more of a snowpack in terms of water supply. But as far as what we can store, we're pretty much going to be there by early next week. OK, so looking at then long term forecasts as far as, you know, the models are showing you, what can you say in terms of being hopeful or maybe maybe just taking a look at what the forecast holds with regard to getting the weather cold enough to getting the kind of temperatures that we need at the right elevations to bring us the kind of snowpack that we need. What are the models saying? Well, we can look out what about a about a week at the end of the future and week to 10 days and looking out, they do look to be a little cooler systems next week, not not, you know, for real low elevation snow, but sort of mid level. So that'll help. But it's really a question of what comes after that in terms of for the rest of January, February or kind of the main snowpack building months. So those are what we're going to have to watch to see how the overall water supply picture will evolve. But this what we're having so far is really helpful. This is the best we've seen in some time in years for water supply. OK, and obviously, there are people who are going to be seeing this. They're going to be watching the news. They're going to be reading the paper, listening to the radio, looking at their phones about the weather that's headed this way, especially coming into this weekend. What should people know? What should they do from a weather point of view? In terms of preparation? Sure. Well, the big, yeah, the big heads up is that Friday during the day at least should be dry. So everyone should really try to utilize that day to prepare for this heavy rain event that will be happening Saturday through Monday. So some of the things we're suggesting are simple, such as clearing out your gutters and nearby storm drains, because we definitely expect ponding of water and flooded roadways. If you live near a small stream or river, keep in mind that those levels are definitely going to rise quickly over this weekend. Other preparedness tips? So for folks who are traveling, especially in the mountain roads like you all know, we've had rain and snow, but because the soils are so saturated and we're looking at such high rainfall amounts on the Sunday through Monday timeframe, not only are rock and debris flow is going to be increased, but it's not just going to be the burn scars, it's going to be any higher terrain that is susceptible to rock and mudslides during rain events. Those are going to increase. So we definitely recommend that you take a look at the Caltrans quick map and check the road conditions. And keep in mind, there could also be a lot of power outages across parts of California. And if there's a lot of water, it may be difficult for the utility companies to get around and restore power quickly. So I always tell my friends and neighbors to be prepared for at least a couple of days of not having power. So have some extra food that is Irish and make sure you have lots of extra blankets to stay warm. Absolutely. Listen, great advice. We appreciate it. Are there any final thoughts before we let you go and get back to your work today? We've been coordinating with all of our neighbors, the Department of Water Resources, the Flood Operations Center, the California Nevada River Forecast Center, and all the forecasters at the Weather Service will be here 24 seven monitoring the any flooding that does develop and the forecast that go into those flooding models. We also want to remind folks that we are anticipating quite a bit of urban flooding. So always remember, turn around, don't drown. You don't know what is under that water. So we want to keep you safe and especially at nighttime people take for granted that the road is still there and it might not be. So just remember, turn around, don't drown and stay safe out there. Absolutely. And of course, if they want the latest information, they can keep an eye on the social media from both the National Weather Service, DWR, Cal OES. We want to thank Michelle Mead and Brooke and Alan from National Weather Service as well as Liz Bryson from DWR. Thank you so much for chatting with us and giving us some great information, some great advice, stay safe as well. And we'll keep an eye on the weather just like you folks.