 Okay, very good morning. It is Monday 21st of June. Hope you are doing well and just a quick summary of what I'm going to cover which is a kind of wrap up of the weekend's major news flow and then we'll look at the major highlights for the week ahead. Very much going to kind of focus on the fundamental side of things so I'll just give you a quick flavour in a moment of the overall charts, what we look like at the open sentiment-wise this morning, but I'll leave that for the more detailed technical look in the Amphi live community. Remember if you're watching this on YouTube really appreciate it if you could like and subscribe to the channel if you're not really done so and then as I always say that if you want to get this briefing early every other day of the week then you can just check out AmplifyLive.com but look let's get straight to it and let's talk about the charts this morning and the market's still very much in a little bit of digestion of what happened from the Fed both middle of last week and also those surprisingly hawkish comments that came out from James Bullard of course which moved the markets on Friday so it turns the Asia-Pacific sessions stock index futures actually did move lower typically lower trade across Asia overnight but as Europe has come into the market just seeing a little bit of reprieve here to some of that downside pressure and Going from the center left to right the DAX future NASDAQ and the S&P just coming up a little bit from what Otherwise was was lower trade seen overnight Elsewhere then the dollar just softening a touch but really trading around unchanged However with the Dixie it's worth just keeping an eye on the kind of range from the Asia-Pac session and Also late in the US session because we're at the lower bound of that at the moment the Dixie currently trading at 92 22 So just as well giving a slight lift to the major pairs You can see here euro dollar just coming up to its range high that we were trading with the footprint kind of printing down from the low Post the bullard comments and then overnight the Asia-Pac session in the lower bound on the upper bound of the range I've also got the pivot today and just coming in close proximity to the current price And then as far as cable is concerned pretty similar as well a little bit of softness in the dollar Just helping it just pull back up and we're keeping on that one thirty eight thirty one here looking at sterling futures Which is that double top that we had from the overnight a pack session and late in US trade on Friday Otherwise oil Just remains fairly elevated We're kind of in this 70 72 band from a slightly higher time frame perspective on this multi-year higher That we've been trading and I've got an update on Iran from the weekends pressed I can get you up to speed on and then in terms of t-notes quite interesting move in fact this is looking at the US 10 year and Given the downward move that we saw on that surprise announcement with the move to two rate hikes in 2023 on the dot plots and some of the inflation Comments and all of that move has been taken back and actually in fact even our outperformed a little bit yet in the Asia-Pacific session If you look at where we're trading right now Look at where we were trading prior to the Fed announcement. We are absolutely flat Exing out some of the the large swings in price action that we have seen So what we're seeing a little bit in the yield movement is higher yields in the short end and slightly lower in the long end That's creating some of this curve movement at the moment on the back of some of the more The kind of fears about near-term tightening Further exacerbated by the bullard comments that we had at the end of last week and on that point I just wanted to start off on the new the news side of things is looking at this FMC table this kind of hawk dove View of which is particularly important for any trader to to understand and be aware of of course to ascertain The potential reaction that a certain comment from a certain speaker could have on the underlying price of different products and Bullard ultimately is now quite a bump further down Towards the very most extreme bottom end of this list Otherwise sitting quite center and you know quite a lot of questions about bullard at the end of last week and As I said at the time in the kind of sign off to some of our summer analysts Bullard is probably one of the Outline characters who does tend to jump around this kind of dove hawk spectrum Dovish being at the top and the hawkish being at the bottom Which is which is very unusual in fact because as we know central bankers are always very cautious Very calculated with what they say given that they're fully aware of the impact of their comments could have on the market So a couple of points with bullard Was that one he isn't a voting member at the moment But I think the markets are willing to look beyond that point Just particularly because of the fact that he is going to be voting next year and that's really when things from a policy Real perspective start to start heating up So tapering commencing and perhaps at the beginning of that year as far as he's concerned also rate rises happening in that year as Well of which he will have the ability to vote on on policy. So people kind of forward-looking in that sense a Lot of people as well criticising bullard, which I think is a perhaps a little bit inappropriate As I've just previously said, I know he does flip-flop and changes view quite often and more so than normal Which does also bring into question his credibility But what I would say is that for me and that actually provides quite interesting communication tool perhaps for the committee to have someone who's quite outlying who can then kind of Reinstall perhaps the more hawkish tilt that the Fed wanted to convey last week because Underpinning one of Bullard's comments was that there is still upside risks to the economic kind of recovery Given the fact we still got quite a lot of reopening to do which I don't really disagree with so perhaps he gets used is what I'm saying as a way of Given that he's a non-voter And given the fact that people are aware of he tends to jump her out in terms of his view It just allows the Fed to have someone who they can put out there say something that can Kind of get into the heads of the psyche of the investment community Without they're really tampering with the official view at this point in time Of course the timeline we're still looking at is is really Jackson Hole the end of August for the next meaningful event when we're going to get an update on on policy views so That was that was bullard We have had kashkari who as you can see here is the most dovish member or considered To be and is a voter not until 2023 so he's a bit late to the game really and so his comments Probably watered down diluted to a certain degree for that matter that kashkari no surprises there But in context coming after the very hawkish comments from bullard kashkari said that the weekend the Fed's interest rate should remain Unchanged at least through 2023 so he would have been one of those Anonymous dots who would have stayed Unchanged at basically flat looking for rates not to rise not in 2020 but after 2023 You're gonna get a lot more of these guys speaking throughout the week And it's obviously gonna garner a lot of attention just given the context of what's happened last week with the with the rate decision from the FMC and bullard Powell of course the most important the Fed share does speak on Tuesday before the House selects subcommittee on the Coronavirus crisis and the Fed's policy response and also the state of the economy so that's gonna be a big one of course because if we mean we have seen some pretty sizable moves in the market across the board and That's going to be quite key to see then does pal need to kind of move the needle again Does he feel like the markets are on point with what they're trying to communicate so that'd be quite an important speech And that's coming Tuesday. You've got the lights of Williams speaking today daily message on Tuesday Bostick And James Bullard again do speak later on in the week, of course Excuse me Otherwise, let's just take a quick look at what else is going on and gonna start off with looking at the situation with EU and COVID because At the moment as I'll show you facts vaccines Europe's been having a pretty good performance of late trying to just close the gap and You'll see this visually in a moment But one of the main things that's come up in the FT's analysis is the fact that the Coronavirus Delta variant which of course has been the main focal point here in the UK has started to emerge and become more dominant In the likes of Portugal and has appeared in clusters in the likes of Germany France and Spain Which has prompted European health officials to start commenting About potential action that might be needed to slow that spread if it comes materially worse and so Couple of things here This is looking at the different countries And the top left being the UK where 98 percent sequence cases are now the Delta variant This is much lower at the moment in the case of Europe Italy 26 percent Germany 15 France six point nine percent But the point is is that these numbers are moving up Whereas generally other more total case rates in those areas had been moving down So the point being is that the Delta variant as we know is is much more transmissible And as we're seeing the UK is kind of a race between how quickly can you get the population? Vaccinated against then the speed of which the spread of this Delta variant starts to pick up and on that point The UK continues to be somewhat of a front-runner on that regard But Europe pretty much up to where the US is now certainly if you're looking at the cases of like Italy for example So after this massive divergence that we saw through Q1 Going into Q2 of this year between the likes of the UK and Europe Europe's doing a pretty good job of picking up pace now on that vaccination front. So at the moment I guess the way I'd interpret this Delta variant news is basically It's something I'm aware of and it's something I'm monitoring in terms of how quickly Do these rates start to pick up in mainland Europe with the ultimate purpose being if it is rapid and Starts to be at a point where it's going to start influencing government's decisions about national timings of the reopening of their economies if it starts to delay that then obviously that's going to have a knock on implications for the overall eurozone Economic performance, particularly if we're talking about the likes of the biggest nations like Germany France Italy Spain So on and so forth. So for now not so much a thing But this Delta variant undoubtedly is probably going to be the variant that which will comprise of the biggest spread of global covid It's just about the how quickly we can get on top of it through the vaccination process and then subsequently Whether or not it impacts the the economic picture Otherwise the other thing to mention over the weekend was Iran You might have read or heard about This where Western officials have warned Iran that negotiations to right revive its nuclear deal could not continue Indefinitely remember this is continue to roll over pretty much from week to week at this present point in time And the sides have called a bit of a break in in conversations for the time being following the Iranian election at the weekend That comes after Ibrahim Rassi a hard-line and fierce critic of the West one Iran's presidential election on Friday And two diplomats since then have said that they expect a break of around 10 days Rassi or Rassai, I'm sure I'm saying his name incorrectly. I'll have to check But for the purpose of this briefing, he's going to take office in early August and that's quite an important Timing associated with that and the main point being is that some Iranian officials have suggested that Tehran Could have interest in pushing through an agreement in regards to brokering some kind of deal with the West on their nuclear Capabilities before the new president takes office then in later in the summer in August as to then if anything were to go wrong deflect brain blame For any concessions onto his predecessor Rehani, of course So it could be a tactical move there where they'll look to get the deal done in order to start off fresh with the new leadership and just passing the blame on to the previous so Just to keep an eye on at this point in time I wouldn't be looking for any comments immediately as they let the dust settle on the elections for now But we'll be keeping on that rhetoric as it goes through the week Bitcoin bit of a talking point over the weekend Price-wise has come under some selling pressures. You've probably been aware Just having a quick look at it here Flip over and this is looking on a daily on the Bitcoin. This is Bitcoin futures. I'm a stress But just looking where we are at the moment And we're just having a we've just moved below the 200 DMA at the moment Which is you'll remember we briefly broke but obviously sharply rebounded off during that May 19th kind of Intraday crash and crypto that we saw and then we're we saw that again through the 8th of June Before then a pretty strong reversal back up to 40k and we're back down there again at the moment So the latest here with with Bitcoin is kind of focused on this Hash rate in China dropping significantly as Bitcoin mines are being closed and the mid potential regulatory Scrutiny so the latest that's being talked about over the weekend is the city of Yang in the southwestern region of Sichuan has promised or Has promised the provincial authorities to route out all Bitcoin and ether mining operations within one year According to a person familiar with knowledge of the situation According to report the Communist Party's backed global times newspaper Has said the closure of many bitcoin mines in the province has resulted in more than 90 percent of chinese bitcoin mining capacity being Being shut at the moment for context Around 65 percent of the world's bitcoin mining is said to take place in china This is as of april 2020 according to a Study an estimate out of the University of Cambridge in the uk So it really shows how impactful it can be if there is regulatory implications And also then knock on consequence for for bitcoin mining happening specifically in china And this has been a weighted impact or story that has been weighing on price for some time But bitcoin well as you can see here in the top right hand corner is hitting fresh lows as we speak downside You've got the 8th of june low that pretty much comes in just ahead of 30 000 so around 31 000 Then you've got that bottom of the may 19th move which was also the low on the 29th of jan So that 30 k is really downside target of significance But beyond that point 27 k brings in that double bottom from late jan And then further down through 25 k 22 and a half is around the peak that we saw before the Real sharp acceleration of price that we had Going in post the kind of christmas period into the new year So definitely want to watch This week bitcoin never far away from seeing As sports quite regular for that product fairly volatile price movement Quick look at the calendar for the week ahead today's pretty quiet But there are definitely a couple of key things i'd be looking out for european central bank president christine the guard does speak in european parliament later today But i wouldn't be expecting too much from her to be honest But just making you aware otherwise as far as the calendar is concerned things really start to pick up on Wednesday when we get the latest flash PMI numbers now what we're looking out for from those are from the eurozone The main report was characterized by a notable jump in the services PMI as then The nations within the region started to kind of unlock and started to reopen This time around further lockdown easing is expected to support the service side of the prince for the PMI Or be it to a lesser extent that was seen last month On manufacturing front activity like to remain elevated despite some of the bottlenecks that have been Faced on the global supply chain front at the moment. We're also on the same day Of course get the uk flash PMIs on wednesday Um high frequency indicators So something of course in this new pandemic era that people look at particularly on on service measurements So footfall restaurant bookings credit card usage these types of things They generally have improved in late may and early july As far as the uk is concerned as a potential precursor for what this services PMI might look like and of course That's much more important than the manufacturing side when we're looking at the uk But the recent four week extension to the last phase of that final unwinding if you like of the current lockdown in the uk Um might impede then some of the shine off that data So even if it is possible ultimately we have not yet as we were previously scheduled reopened And that obviously is going to slightly moderate any future readings Coming forward that will be measuring the month of june um Well for this reading forward for june, I should say Otherwise on thursday, you've got a couple of different things German ifo is coming out And that's expected to build on on what we have seen is quite a decent increase in german business morale of late In fact last month it was tracking as high as levels since may of 2019 And we suspect to see a further uptick this week But I don't for the moment kind of see that as too surprising However, of course with that delta variant now present in clusters in pockets of germany That's going to be quite key to see whether they can continue that reopening momentum You do also have the q1 GDP coming out of the us But this is the final reading so expected to be unrevised at 6.4 percent And I would say quite largely as a non event for that purpose You do have the bank of england decision though this week So following on from the lights of the fed we got the boe. What can we expect from them? Well, really not a great deal at all So not expecting any change in policy on either the rate or the asset facility In terms of their qe program the afp The decision though on their qe program could well see some Descenting members particularly that of how dain the chief economist who obviously is outgoing He departs From the bank at the end of this month, but he's been very much of the opinion Even so to the point that he voted last time so they should in fact be Stopping the qe Program at this point in time so expect him to dissent Has he managed to persuade anyone else to jump in his his hawkish camp? Perhaps not but that would be something to keep an eye out for when that decision comes out on thursday But overall probably not the most exciting thing that we're ever going to see from the bank of england And then moving on to friday probably the one of the main data points of the week We get the core pce pricing next from the states This is for the month of may in april the month-to-month measure climbs 0.7 percent from the previous month and delivered its biggest Year-on-year jump since the 1990s at 3.1 percent so although the fed Have said and then we've seen this in those Summary of economic projections where they are and have seen inflation a little bit more Pressures larger than they thought but the kind of dot plots or the the the matrix show that they see them Inflation peaking and then decelerating going into 2022 2023 So although this transitory view remains firm at the moment Of course these types of numbers particularly their preferred measure like pce is always going to be closely watched when it's up at these levels So that's going to be something particularly interesting to to keep an eye on Personal income spending and then the final reading university michigan also due on the friday And that is it. So i'm not going to go any further than that for the time being You can just jump on my my twitter account Feel free to follow me. I distribute a morning note a morning call every morning And then otherwise any questions i'll see the guys in the private chat room on amplify life All right. Have a good day and a great week ahead. Thanks very much