 We are coming off of fun masters where we saw a Scotty chef or pick up the green jacket And you might think that's kind of like a letdown type thing because you had the masters you had August all that intrigue And you're thinking maybe there's a letdown, but Brandon not only do we get to have a fun field this week at the RBC Heritage But also we are in person speaking to each other for the first time in the history of this podcast It's gonna be a blast of a show for today Let's dive on in to get you set for this week's PGA event welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm join to your as always by Brandon Goodula he is the senior and managing editor for number fire calm Brandon. I want to know your expectations going in Do you think you will like? Leave me will I pester you enough or you actually leave by the end of the show or other question? Will I interrupt you more or less now that we're in person? You will interrupt me less I can tell there's gonna be a little less lag doubtful But it's gonna be like your energy When I sit next to you is it's like night and day I feel the energy on the podcast normally. Yeah, but it's a little bit toned down through the airwaves Sitting next to you right now The difference in our energy levels is it's it's palpable. I'm curious though Do you think that interrupt you because of the the lag or because I just want us talk over you? I would just I'm being nice and I think it's it's partially it's not that I'll get into you We do have Nicholas Cage popping in behind me as well our producer Calvin Theobald is here He said Nicholas Cage like film festival or something this weekend and got a Nicholas Cage like head So we have Brandon in person. We have me here at the office as well and Nicholas Cage hanging out How could this event possibly be bad? I think I could think of no reasons why I could possibly go wrong. I Love this event. I love this week. I love this golf course It's so different than most of what we get on the PG tour driving accuracy can matter We don't need the biggest hitters. I put some of the some of the sort of B tier studs up to the A tier this week, and I'm also learning something I notice a lot on Television when you have some some newcomers when they're having like a panel discussion They don't know if they should look into the camera or talk to the person and I'm learning right now That I don't know what to do and I should hash that out beforehand But stare directly in the camera the entire time make direct eye contact people just be weirded out for the entire show make them as Comfortable as we possibly can I think that's the key goal here. I think we got that cover. Okay. Well, we got that accomplished Let's dive in and break down the RBC heritage to open it is at Harbor Town at golf links It is seven thousand one hundred and twenty one yards in a par 71 There are a hundred and thirty two golfers in the field the top sixty five plus ties We'll make the cut after the first two rounds so brandy you mentioned Distance not as much of a prerequisite at this course. So what does matter at Harbor Town? Yeah, basically everything but driver distance we see stroke-skinned approach obviously be Very important every single week on the PGA tour That's gonna matter a lot this week with the small greens these greens register about thirty seven hundred square feet on average That's pretty tiny. It's about sixty percent of The PGA tour average, which is around six six thousand square feet So in terms of key stats we want stroke-skinned approach to hit these tiny greens, but obviously you're gonna miss a lot of greens You need to get up and down. I mean you get those strokes gained around their green We got Bermuda greens this week. It's an overseas Sorry Poa greens this week Overseeded but you know overall what we're looking at is precision off the tee precision with the irons Basically being able to go a little bit low past winning scores 19 under 22 under the past two years before that when we have more wind 12 12 and 13 under so it can go easy. It just depends on the weather for this week So I'm curious for you when you're looking at getting up and down Are you looking at scrambling because we don't look at scramble is gained very often personally like we don't we don't you know We don't do that from a stats perspective Are you more inclined to do that this week than usual or is it still not enough where you actually want to like? Filter that in and put it primarily on your sheets. Yes, so I mean it's something that I definitely factor in It's a small piece to the puzzle because scrambling getting up and down is basically two components one is wedge play almost certainly not always it can be an iron shot, but Getting up and down again. You have to you have to make the pot. You have to hit those wedges So it's it's kind of a not the best that which is why I'm kind of looking to filter in a stroke Scained around the green and also stroke skin potting to some degree. Yeah, I think that putting is something I want to be a bit more conscious of this week because it sounds like it's pretty difficult So I will be factoring that in more this week than usual. I'm going with good drives gained versus fairways game just because you know, I want to find the guys who can Not obliterate themselves basically from an accuracy perspective when I can do that Also two things I've realized being in person with you I can't cough usually I mute myself when you're talking and then I cough other thing Is I can't just like scroll Twitter. I can't just like You can't bump around on Twitter because you're gonna know, but you can see it You know when I'm not paying attention to you you could probably tell I can tell but like still I'm I feel very Very seen and out there vulnerable right now We'll talk about golfers who have done well in Harbor town in just a bit But first a soccer fans this season fangirl and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind Soccer contest is spice up game day Introducing Captain Morgan soccer pick on a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play the contest is simple All you have to do is answer 10 questions about Captain Morgan and that week's soccer matchup People with the most correct answers will earn their share of cash prizes head over to fandual calm slash free games Slash Captain Morgan spice up game day with a free shot at cash prizes every Saturday No purchase necessary must be 21 plus to enter Location restrictions apply void or prohibited see full terms at sports book dot or no fandal calm I went into auto mode there. It's just fandal calm not sports book dot fandal calm Anyway, let's dive into RBC heritage to open history and take a look at golfers who have done well here in the past So we talked about you don't need to be as long to feast at Harbor town as you do Also, which is why it's interesting that Dustin Johnson is a guy who has had some interesting history here at this event So talk me through a DJ at Harbor town and what we should expect of him going into this week Yes, I mean DJ doesn't fit the the archetype of what we're typically looking for the types of guys that we kind of can bump up At Harbor town, but he still played here just like that because I like to say this basically every time we get to Harbor town But you can club down you can be a bit more accurate if you're a long header you can't fake the distance It doesn't go the opposite direction And DJ's finished top 30 in each of the past three years top 20 in the past two I think he's in form now with the T9 and the players 12th at the Masters, which actually he did with poor putting DJ's been a little bit more putting reliant In recent weeks, but that was not the case at the Masters where he did it on the strength of a good teeter green game Which is really what you want to see And over the past 12 months DJ ranked seventh in true strokes gained according to data golf The ball striking is back. I think that's safe to say I think he's a great play this week, but that doesn't mean that he's someone at the top of my list But I'm very interested in a Dustin Johnson in his revival. So any thoughts for you on DJ. Yeah I think it's like it's a tough thing because I agree with you where I do think that he is in form right now but it's also Do I want to use him over some of the other guys in that range who are also informed but Maybe can benefit more. So like I guess like the relative Form like the form in the spots where it matters may favor calling more cow at 118 You got DJ 117 more cow is 118 just in Thomas even at 12,000 like these are all guys who fit What you want get you a lot of the advantages that you get with DJ But also may have the better setup for this specific event So that's the drawback that I am seeing here and I also want to ask you How much do you care about the guys who were like in contention at Augusta because DJ like you said was pretty solid there He wasn't really like pushing for a win necessarily throughout that event, but he played well So did Justin Thomas so to calm or a cow. Is it concern you at all when guys were like mentally engaged for four rounds at Augusta or Were they mentally engaged because they're good and therefore we should use them Both you could say you know anyone who can who contended. Oh, we didn't have that many people Don't use Scotty Schaeffler. Yeah, happy RBC heritage because he's not here. Yeah, I think it goes any which way if someone Contents like Cam Smith comes out Obviously had a disappointing Sunday comes out struggles at the RBC heritage You're gonna say it's because he was right too involved at the Masters made too much of a run But if he finishes well, it's because he's been playing hot So it's one of those things that it's really hard to sort of pick and choose the spots Because if we say anyone who contended or played the weekend at Augusta, we got to write off, right? We're gonna lose a lot of studs and that I mean sometimes we can see you guys have let downs But that's not always the case and I don't really want to play that way this week Fading some of the some of the better players because that would give me off of calling more cow a camp Smith DJ So I'm really gonna kind of ignore that largely. I agree as well Okay, so let's talk about web simpson kind of a more traditional course fit for this event and web has proven that He fits this course via his results You just kind of to wonder if the course history is enough to overwhelm the more spotty recent form web One year back in 2020 that is one of three top five finishes for him at harbour town and it was also He was also ninth here last year. So the form is both good and recent The problem is that the 2020 data not ideal right now web has been to five events He has made four cuts. That's good. The loan misses at the players But he also has no finishes better than 35th so web was decent during the swing season, which means that it's not that long ago that he was good and He does get a bump up due to the course here. So is that enough to draw you back in a web simpson for this week I don't think I'm really interested in web simpson. I have a lot of other plays There are a lot of plays this week despite the field being I mean, it's it's deep Um, we kind of see that reflected in the win odds where we don't have someone, you know, eight and a half nine and a half 10 to one to win. Um, we're getting odds starting at 13 to one Um on vandal sportsbook. So it's a little bit flatter Which is to say that there's not necessarily a prohibitive favorite But there's also some depth because even if we had someone, you know If it was jt at the top and you cut out two or three of those names, he's going to be eight and a half to one But that's not really how it works this week. So for me I think uh, web personally is a little a little bit over salary to 10 seven Um, I would rather play daniel burger at 10 nine or russel henley at 10 five right around him So i'm i'm fine, uh, or matt Fitzpatrick, honestly 10 eight Um, i'm not going to have any web simpson and i'm not going to feel too bad about it I just freed my player picks now because we're in person you decide to read off my player picks of burger And henley is that is that how this is going to go? Uh, no, but I did notice we have a lot of overlap Okay, I'll take it for sure. So let's talk to you about steward sink 8600 dollars. He won here last year He has won here several times before they were not quite as recent as uh last year So what do you see with sink and his data here, but also recently? He had three time winner 2000 2004 2021. It's quite the gap Uh, so we were nine when he won his first event here Uh nine ish. Yeah That's never take. Yeah. Um, but you know, he won last year by a lot He won by four shots. He shot 19 under and amazingly he led the field in tita green play He was fifth in distance 61st in driving accuracy Among the 65 golfers who made the cut so while accuracy like matters here It's not that you have to be accurate It's more than accurate hitters can contend and I think it's a little bit of a misnomer to say that you whoever hits the most fairways Basically gets the biggest leg up. That's not really what what this says. It just says that You're not disqualified, uh by being a shorter hitter and that's basically what we saw from sink last year He was elite with the irons the wedges. He was good, but not phenomenal Well with the putter So again, it's just basically proof that anyone can win here that increases volatility It makes it a little bit less stable at the top For these guys to come through especially and again, I said, I'm not really factoring in uh the masters But like if you want I mean, I can I understand the case personally. I'm not going that route I think that I'd be missing out on too many big names And I don't want to forego big names for the assumption that there's just not going to be as engaged So for me You know someone like a steward sink has appeal because he could still contend at 8600 But this season he's 37th in distance Um still despite that 177th in t-degree and play 197th around the green So, you know last year when you won it was a bit of a renaissance period for sink. It's not the case now I'm not playing through a sink, but there are value plays. I'm into Any thoughts for you on sink? Yeah, so like I think the biggest drawback is you talked about how sometimes this event can go low And like can steward sink go low like last year 117th and birdies are better gained I think over the past 50 rounds like that's a pretty big drawback It's not just the can he win discussion, but also like birdies are fantasy points So I think that like for those reasons it's pretty hard for me to gloss over him I think that like honestly when we're discussing sink the bigger discussion it it triggers is the idea that anyone can win and like I'm curious what that does to you from a roster construction perspective. Are you Looking to go with a more balanced lineup As a result of that because they're The the advantage of the studs is lower than it usually is or what kind of is your takeaway from the fact that Guys of that mold not sink specifically, but guys of that mold can win How does it alter your your view of the studs and the overall roster constructed this event? Yeah, so with sink last year according to Fantasy national he was gaining 1.7 strokes per event In the five leading in currently he's losing 1.5 on average. So again very different for him It's a little bit of like a a renaissance period for sink last year. So What you ask can he go low he did last year Currently he's in the ninth percentile and birdie are better. He gained over the past 50 rounds as Jim mentioned Not a good stat there, but as far as roster construction goes for me I just realized I said Jim like I should probably phrase that differently now that we're sitting next to each other You know, we're talking to them the people the good people at home Hopefully at home But the the real uh change that I'd be looking to make is More readily fading the chalk So I think Collin more cow is the best of the stud plays because he fits this course so well in terms of Everything you're looking for but if we find out that he's going to be the super chalk I'll just play somebody else because we can we can go that route So that's the biggest differentiation for me and honestly I'm less inclined to go balanced and more inclined to target some value plays you might have a shot Because I still want some way When equity even though my sims have to win equity being a little bit lower For the studs than normal So with the chalk fading you're talking about volatility when everything's more volatile that increases the incentive to Deviate and that's kind of the bigger takeaway from branded it seems. Okay. Let's talk here about Matt Koucher Koucher won here in 2014. He had a runner-up a couple weeks ago as well So has course history some recent form that makes him pretty interesting at $9600 Koucher has more than just the win at harbour town. He has finished fifth ninth 11th 23rd 41st and 18th since that win So some good finishes since then the recent finishes 41st 18th Haven't been as good, but they also have not been bad Koucher does have a runner-up at the valero taxes open not that long ago before that. He was 16th at the vows bar He was also seventh at the sony opens and good finishes for Koucher here recently The events between they were rough like we don't need to talk about what happened in the the non good finishes But I'm at least interested in Koucher, which I'm typically not so I'm open to it What are your thoughts on Koucher this week? Yeah, I mean he's getting it all done with the short game Over the past three months. He's ninth in true strokes game putting second around the green 46th of t-degree If I can click this button here, I'll let you know. He is embossed at 87th and ball striking So again, that's Matt Koucher's game and that that can work at harbour town And that's why I wanted it's one of the reasons why I find this event Frustrating to bet and build dfs lineups for but just fun to watch because we get these names that we don't typically Want to build around but Koucher honestly in my stats model is 11th this week despite ranking outside the top 20 Infandal salary. So I see the appeal He's honestly not that bad of a bet at 50 to 1 based on my winsims either. So I'm not out on Koucher It's just so hard to want to build around a guy who you feel pretty confident It's gonna lose your strokes in the ball striking departments Yeah, where do you have him because like I think the mid range is pretty good this week Would you go like I like adam hadwin. We'll talk about him later hadwin or koucher for you had one Maverick mcnealy or koucher Um, I'm gonna go mcnealy just blindly. I agree. I like both those guys So koucher is a consideration but not a staple in that range, correct? Correct. Okay Let's talk about some current form here in golfers who are doing well right now You mentioned Cameron Smith and obviously someday didn't go to plan at the masters but The reason we cared about sunday is because he did so well thursday through saturday And I think that matters a lot too. We know that smith the longer term for him beyond that is unreal So what do you see with the camera and smith right now? And how are you viewing him for this week? He's even cams just like lights out. I think we have to talk about him even though Didn't get to close out uh on sunday win that green jacket You know He won the players. I mean, he'll be fine. He'll be all right for oh, but and he's gonna be in contention consistently at Augusta But ultimately finished t3 at the masters In the from from the final group in 2022 now He has two wins a third a fourth A 33rd and a missed cut and that missed cut came after his win out in hawaii I don't think he was particularly engaged. I think that one was pretty forgivable He ranks 12th in the field and true strokes gained teeter green over the past three months Despite ranking 118th off the tee Cam smith can get he can find some woods with any tee shot and that's that's an issue Precision does again help you can get some angles here. Um, if you're if you're accurate off the tee Now if you disregard strokes gained off the tee cams gonna look great If you want driving accuracy, he's gonna look a little bit weaker than some of these other top players including Morecala and and patrick can't lay but you know, I think that you just make the case that camera smith's a great golfer T here nine last year after missing the cut twice before that but Before those two missed cuts, which cam with poor potting I should I should point out which is again what you want to see whenever you see a missed cut Top 32 and four tries before that. So you would think this course sets up well for cam smith. He's so hot right now It's hard to fade him, but I still do think that I have con more cow above cam smith. So where are you? Where are you with cam smith for this week? I think the key discussion is where I have him compared to morecala because it's like, you know, the rest of it's like I like him, you know, that that part's pretty obvious. So Do I like cam smith more than I like con morecala? Probably not but like it's very very close and like I think that this is a spot where I don't think it's what happened, but like let's say morecala becomes uber chop I don't think that'll happen If he did I would love to pivot to smith. So I think that they're very much in the same tier I would just guess the situation where morecala is 35 percent rostered cam smith is 27 to 30 probably maybe even higher than that because he was doing so well at the masters so I can't view smith as a pivot and I also think I view morecala slightly above so Maybe that means justin thomas is like the pivot but like also he's the highest salary guy It's a betting favorite. I can't expect him to be a little rostered. So I'm having a hard time really deciding How things are going to break from a rostered perspective because as you say that should dictate a decent amount for this week So I'm honestly pretty torn. Maybe patrick can't raise that guy Who I could turn towards instead, but I think that's straight up Like cash game build Probably go morecala Over cam smith, but it's it's a pretty tough call for me honestly I think there's a group of five. I know we're focusing right now on morecala versus cam smith because jim and I both have Uh calling morecala. I think at the top you'd probably say pretty comfortably But we have justin thomas cam and smith dustin johnson and I think patrick cannelly still deserves to be in that conversation I agree for me. Cannelly is going to be the forgotten guy And I think the cannelly sets up well here for this week just The the least amount to show for the past few weeks of those five But again We're splitting hairs with a lot of this the the one name you can really point to and say he's sort of that the outlier Honestly in a negative sense would be dj due to course fit, but we've already talked about the fact that that's not really the case so Again, it feels a little bit It's it's not as aggressive as it take to say like hey, i'm playing con morecala no matter what To find out that morecala is going to be super chalk. We have other options And that's what we talk about all the time in pgadfs when you have other options be okay Assuming you might get it wrong last week. That would have you know served me well because xander brooks Didn't necessarily Do well every other stud seemed to do well But again, you're going to get it wrong and whenever you have a good pivot Especially in a field that's wide open you should take that a good pivot or four and I think we have four for this week Is there anyone in that upper tier you would not turn to as a pivot like let's say dj projects to be 12% roster whereas everyone else is above 15 to 20 percent Would you go to dj there if you know that he'll be less rostered than others? I have dj lowest in Just because of the long-term form not being quite as good as the other guys which sounds weird For me long-term forms the past year suggested for recency We're starting to see better finishes better stroke scan data from dj, but You know, honestly, he I would probably have him last but With that said if he is the one that nobody wants to play I'll play him this week. Okay. That's good to know Let's move on now to daniel burger because typically this would be a burger event for me because he's not long off the tee But he's awesome everywhere else, but the form for burgers a bit more funky So I wanted to look in here and see if it should push him down our list or not Specifically burger was bad over the weekend of augusta. I had burger in several lineups So I felt that for sure. He finished 50th. He shot like 14 over. It was not great But that comes after he also struggled at the match play Before that though burger was 13th at the players. He was fourth at the honda classic He also had top 10s at the toc in the hero world challenge. These really tough events He was doing well burger does have good history here. He was third back in 2020 13th last year And he does still lead the field in the pros the past 50 rounds according to fantasy nationals. So I know the past couple of events haven't been good But I'm inclined to give him a pass and still be high on burger at 10,900 dollars. Where do you sit on burger for this week? I love daniel burger party love him He should benefit uh from the setup We probably get some wind because it's a carolina course coastal course I play as well in the wind which makes sense. He's the lowest driver apex on the pga tour Didn't know that by a pretty comfortable margin. There's like one or two guys close to him And then there's he's the genre list and I guess no, they're not the distance carry on. I'll think about it but you know Good wind player He's talked in the past about liking windy conditions He thinks that favors him and it's actually buried out in the stats Which you don't always see sometimes the guys think that they play really well in the wind or don't play well in the wind And the inverse is actually the case with their stats, but low driver apex. He can shape it He can put it wherever he wants So I think burger is a standout play and we talked a lot about those top five. I love the top five But I think daniel burger is under salaryed as a result of having a pretty good Range above him with jordan speeds just above him. Cory conner sung j.m. She and laury Nothing bad to say against those guys, but at salary for me daniel burger wins out Would you start a line up with burger as the highest salary guy? I don't think so. Okay Although he rates out really well for me in my wind simulation model So basically you'd be looking at like get a get a more a cow and then get a burgers or second stun Yeah, if I can go that route, I'd go that route Just because I think we can take some stabs on some lower salary plays if we really want to but I don't think this is necessarily the week to build a balanced lineup because Nobody's really safe not because the course is so difficult but because everybody can contend In some of these guys that we haven't heard of in a long time Haven't been on the first page of a leaderboard in quite some time They're gonna be playing well and you're gonna be reminded of how these guys are all world-class golfers And it's gonna just be how it goes. So I don't think balance super balance is the approach I want I still want access to that top tier win equity from you know The the more cow is the can't lays the cam smiths jt things like that All right, let's move on to some mid-range plays and talk about two guys at exactly the same salary $9,500 you got chris kirk. I've got adam hadwin. You break down kirk. I'll break down hadwin Then we'll discuss those two in what I think is a pretty decent range this week Yeah, so chris kirk three top 15s in his past five starts those came at the beginning of that five event sample Then he missed the cut at the players, which is always forgivable Especially this year with the weather being what it is. I don't really care about miscuts the players Um, it's just the it's its own sort of event T35 at the valero after that, which came with poor putting which again Understandable the t-degree game Quite good. He is ninth in data golf's true strokes gained t-degree and over the past three months 20th and overall strokes gained in that sample I have been the 81st percentile in my adjusted Strokes gained fairway through green to basically your strokes gain Minus your Off the t-play and again for me that adjusts for recency in field strength 71st percentile over the past 50 rounds in fairways gained according to fantasy national You'd like to see that finish t7 here last year a lot to like about chris kirk that said you know It is a good range I don't necessarily know if i'll get to chris kirk because I can't play everyone And we got a lot of we got a lot of discussion at the top of the board So i'm more inclined to hone in on some value plays I think we can consider anyone at 95 of somewhat of a value play And then cycle through the studs hope I hit right on those guys as opposed to typically locking in the studs I prefer and trying to you know Find the right value plays so I don't know if I'll get to kirk, but I think the case for him is good So I don't know if you want to talk about hadwin. Let me talk about this range overall. Let's do that Let's do that. Okay. So hadwin again the exact same salary. He is accurate off the tee He's been putting together good finishes recently I think that's a pretty fun combo at that salary hadwin had has finished fourth at the valero seventh at the val spar and ninth at the players and his past three events And most of that has been via the approach hadwin has gained at least 3.3 strokes with his irons in all three events He also gained around the green which you can do at this event too It's not like, you know, it's it's important to do that if you can and hadwin can do that So I know typically you're not a big hadwin guy, but I do like him quite a bit here at $9,500. So Is he a guy you like more than kirk and how do you view him in this range? I do like him more than kirk Adam hadwin back on the menu Set up really well at a course that rewards accuracy and irons So i'm not going to overthink this one. I think hadwin honestly is one of the better plays at salary in the entire field Um, I'm gonna play him in our head-to-head almost assuredly and I feel pretty good about it I forgot that you're sitting. It's like I'm gonna build up. I typically build up my bobble hat while we're talking I don't know if I can do that right now I gotta like guard my screen, which you can see pretty blatantly Jim you you've won a few, uh, I think three of the past four, but trust me. I don't You don't view me as a threat I get it Not even make you finish the sentence Okay, let's take a look at what the bookmakers are saying for this event As brandy mentioned, it is pretty flat odds at the top over at fan dual sports book We have justin thomas and collin morrick how about the 13 to 1 cam smith is 14 to 1 Then patrick cantley is 16 to 1 followed by dustin johnson at 18 to 1 We got shane lowery and matthew if it's patrick or matt at 20 to 1 And then it dips down to kory connor's at 26 followed by a group of five guys at 29 to 1 Doing this on the fly we've got burger wedson sinceung jm walking neiman and rustle hemley rounding out the top group so Looking at those top options. You can only pick one stud Outside of morrick howa who is your number two outside of morrick howa definitive who is your number two? It's going to be cantley with an assumed baked in leverage play Which you don't necessarily need in a head to head, but if we're talking my secondary option I think cantley the the luster is gone. Um, I think people are tired of patrick cantley and honestly I kind of get it, but I also Like I don't I think people are being a little bit too. I guess maybe it's just because he's not the flashiest player Um, but for me like when I think about it, he's always really good in my win simulation model, uh, but he does When he's got really high end upside So for me it's going to be cantley as the pivot. Uh, what about you? So I think the cantley is probably My top pivot as well, which probably means that he's not a pivot, but like I I don't think this will be the universal Well, I think I think we tend to like cant lay more than others. Yes um So I think if I assume that he'll be less popular I would go there and that's probably going to be the case now question is second person you've got your Or More a cow locked in there for a cash game. Are you jumping down to the burger henley range for your second guy? How are you building though that second spot in your roster? Yeah, I do think that this week even though i'm okay and open to some value plays It's probably going to be more a cow up burger so that I can then try to fit in Uh matt fits patrick or rossel henley That's a little bit more of what i'm looking for than a more a cow can't lay a start And then just four straight up value plays You know that could end up being the like the nut lineup this week, but Even with the value being more relevant this week than others It's still a low probability that those guys are going to hit so I'm looking more for like that the three Sort of studs and I think that still like the 10 000 and above range. Those guys are still studs this week Okay, so let's look at what uh, which odds have shifted most since the odds opened They opened up yesterday. Where have you seen the biggest most noteworthy movement in the fandall sports book odds? Um, I did pull a little bit later. Um, did some traveling First time hearing of this Um, but I pulled some stuff last last night on monday night. Um, and the movement I've seen so far ham smith 15 to 14 patrick can't lay 17 to 16 gaino burger and a web simpson 31 to 29 Joaquin neiman 32 to 29 And then some bigger movements outside of that Those were the the noteworthy names getting some buzz sort of in the shorter range, but rustle henley 38 to 29 kevin nought 50 to 41 sewell kim 55 to 41 chris kirk 65 to 55 tom hoagie 80 to 65 Troy merit 95 to 80 jg spawn and sebstrock are from 100 to 80 So kind of a lot of movement some relevant movement at the top some bigger movement In that sort of large mid tier, you know, the guys with odds now below Shorter than 100 to one. So I think there's a lot of noteworthy names in that anything jump out to you Yeah, what is your thought on kevin nought? He is $9900 Pretty well balanced in terms of what you want for this course hats and good finishes recently Is hats and good finishes here where you out on him at 9900 dollars Kevin nought if you just scroll down a little a little bit there you can scroll for me if you want Okay, he's a player pick. All right, so I love kevin nought. See you're reading mine, but I didn't read yours. Wow cheater I love kevin nought this week. I'll talk more about him. I think he jumps out I think chris kirk's still relevant, but not necessarily a corp by tom hoagie. I think I'd Coming in at a $200 discount from kirk. I like him plenty. So A lot of names there. I'm not chasing jj spawn Goed on him for showing up at the masters, but not going to go there sep straka as well probably not going there, but You know a lot of names this week at reasonable salaries Which lower salary options have a good win odds over at fando sportsport? Well sep straka tremerit both 80 to 1 at sub 9 000 salaries dug gims 85 to 1 Russell knocks luke list patin kazire eric van royne and denny mccarthy all 95 to 1 And then i'm not going to read this next tier because it is 14 guys at 100 to 1 We have about four or five at 110 another like 14 at 120. So again, we talked about You know these flatter odds. We see that kind of throughout But if it's the kind of week where you want to just match up win odds and salaries You're not going to get a whole lot That said you're still seeing some sub 100 odds 100 to 1 odds that is Sub 9 000 salaries. So like we have a few options, but not necessarily any glaring oversights any like 60 55 want to 1 value the closest to that is dug in 80 200 dollars at 85 to 1 and I saw that in like I looked at it and I couldn't really Figure out why I guess I'm guessing it's because oh It's an accuracy course not a distance course. We will like auto bet dug gim But like I still want birdies I would still like good putters if I can find them and gim doesn't fit that super well So despite the low win odds at the low salary, I couldn't sell myself on dug gim. Can you Uh, no, I would rather I would much rather play Troy merit for an extra hundred in salary If I'm if I'm digging down there between the two specifically But there's another name on the 8000 Brian steward. I would rather play than dug in this wall Okay, so let's dive in to the weather for this week You mentioned that sometimes win can play a pretty major factor and the wins will be high on thursday Starting off around 13 miles per hour dipping down to around 11 by the end of the round So a slight decline throughout the day, but not a major one And so wind pretty steady throughout the day on thursday and friday the wind will start lower around Five or so miles per hour slowly increasing to 10 and then get into the the teens in the afternoon So to me that says the aggregate winds Total will be lowest for the golfers teeing off later on thursday versus those teeing off earlier on thursday so to me I think that says maybe you bump up the guys teeing off later on thursday And we're talking now and t times are actually out for once. That's not typically the case But I do think there's enough there where you can give at least a slight bump up To guys teeing off later in the day On thursday as far as the weekend goes wind not too bad on saturday There is a chance of some rain though during the middle of the day shouldn't impact things too much because it's not Scheduled ahead of time t times and then on sunday wind speeds are around 10 miles per hour Some chance of rain there again, but nothing too crazy So a slight bump to guys teeing off Later in the afternoon on thursday because they get the lesser wind friday you should be to go from there So with that said let's dive in to our player picks here for the rbc A harry to joe brandon starting off in the upper tier. Who are you targeting on vandal for this week? jim Going with calling more cowl. Wow for some year. Uh, number one play for me this week at 11 eight Um pretty strong win odds for me at 3.8 percent, which doesn't sound like a lot Honestly, he's probably lower than some other places have him, but uh more cala I'm not gonna say it's a like a brook situation But there are there are some weeks where more cala doesn't necessarily play At his peak and so with more cala's putter coming and going that can kind of bog down the long-term stroke skeined data and for me, I mean, you know historically we don't put a whole lot of stock into putting We've been doing it more and more So for more cala, I still have to overcome that that's not a fear I like to overcome with the superstar at a superstar salary at a superstar Number on the odds board, but that all that said calling more cala's game is built on precision That is what is that's the test at harbour town More cala's 94th percentile or better in fairways gained and adjusted strokes Approach over the past year finished seventh year last year with second in tier green play Surprisingly didn't putt that well, which again You know, I think a lot of people are willing to overlook that with more cala I'm a little bit more hesitant with more cala all that said I think that this is a perfect week for him To show up and have a really strong finish. Yeah, I think for our head to head more cala will very probably be in there And I think that he's a top guy I do Think though that there is some value in going a bit more balanced at times and having We talked about the mid-range being good. I like burger a lot I like henley so I do want to have some lineups where My route for exploiting volatility in the stud range is being a bit more balanced and glossing over them Which is why I want to talk about daniel burger right now as my top set of 10 9 burger You know, he's he's one of the guys who actually Gets me pretty much everything that I want which is tough to find in this field He ranks ninth in fairways in good drives gained. He's first in approach 36 and putting And he's put that to good use in harbour town before as we discussed earlier So i'm not scared off burger to a couple down weeks, especially at really unique events Especially at such a middling salary. So to me I do think that I want to have more cala in there in like a cash game But if i'm trying to be different for tournaments, like it's weird because you think you want to be more balanced in cash games versus tournaments, but I think In order to be different in a volatile event, I might just take that route instead So burger to me is a stud at 10 9 and it looks like he is in your player picks as well Yeah, burgers one of my favorite plays this week one of my favorite bets as well Um, is he still 31 to 1? I should probably know this and you probably just said it 29 and I've said it too. I think because he moved that is a lot longer than he has some other places though So if you want to do bet daniel burger do it here do it at fandall. There you go. Um, boy, I forgot I Just read the guys who saw the move but hey It would hey, what are you gonna do? I'm sorry. It's out there. It's live So for me daniel burger again one of my favorite win plays Win bets, but also just dfs plays of the week So it's the right fit for harbert town. I talked about the driver apex I taught jim that daniel burger has a really low driver apex the john carlo stanton of pga We're not going to think about the distance. I'm just going to stick with it He's got a fun finishing position as well at harbert town 33rd 3rd and 13th the past three years So he's going to finish like 23rd or 43rd I don't know um or 53rd 63rd I'm thinking maybe first bust daniel bustger Uh 99th percentile though adjusted approach play for me over the past year We're going to hit fairways. He basically has just modeled his game on hitting fairways hitting good iron shots I think that it's a really good week for burger. So we're in agreement there And as much as I like more cala i'm much more likely to have daniel burger in a lineup because I might Straight away from more cala because I had some more options to pivot to but burger to me among the upper 10 thousand range is a cut above Matt Fitzpatrick. Okay, so let's talk about my second step, which is russell henley and he's part of the reason why I'd be okay skewing more balanced for this week is because I want to get henley and burger in there Henley is 10-5 and he shouldn't be that low henley Sets up very well for harbour town. He ranks 15th in a good drives game second and approach Third and birdies are better game And obviously henley is not the best putter and I do care about that here But he's not terrible like he's not a plus, but he's also not a minus there. So that's that's positive henley was fine at augusta when we loved him so I don't know too much cause for concern with him. He finished ninth at the rbc heritage last year So I think henley is a good part of a balanced build. Do you worry that going with Stud to be named later plus burger plus henley is too top heavy or Do you think that you'll be okay with doing that for this week? So I go Let's say more a cup. Let's say more cala burger and then henley I'm at 89 33 left from my final three players um, there are again a few names down in that range That I would consider I think brian steward's in play I think adam longs in play it's 7800 if I take one of those names If I go with I'll play a little bit safer and go with brian steward Um, I'm up to 9400. I think that works. Okay. Yeah, it's definitely an option. It's not necessarily my My top option No, that is my top option actually What I think about like I could see the gears turning in your head because we went well the thing is like usually We start talking line-ups. Yeah toward the end of the show We talk about the plays we like and then you know as we as things unfold we're looking at Who might be overlooked? Who might be getting slept on who might be getting talked up what the actual lineup construction is and so I'm realizing that I have more cala pretty high up the leaderboard But also love daniel burger and we both love rossel henley. Jim just has him as a player pick I think there's probably the right way to go for this week. My guy rossel henley this week Okay, let's go down to the mid-range. You spoiled this one kevin. Nah, you spilled the beans So there's no point even talking on it. All right, that works for me. Yeah, it says my voice So kevin nah 9900 uh this week I think he's I think he's a good outright win place though as well But if we're if we're able to downplay off the team numbers then kevin nah gets bumped up always he's a really good golfer just one of those guys who like Doesn't play a lot of courses that suit him well 9th percentile and adjusted off the t-play, but 70th percentile in iron play Uh 80th percentile are better in both short game stats That's a really good profile that just doesn't necessarily translate to course Week after week after week the salary is a little bit higher than I thought it would be But honestly, I'm okay with it because the fairway through green number is so good I think kevin nah Deserves to be someone I say like I'm gonna play him in our head-to-head. Yeah, but roster construction wise I don't know how balanced I'll be I'm gonna go a little bit more top and bottom heavy like I just said Okay, so I like nah and I do like him. I think I like maverick mcnealy a bit more though So let's talk about him mcnealy is 98 right beneath nah 99 and mcnealy doesn't really feast in one specific area, but He gets birdies because he's well rounded and that's that's what I want at this event mcnealy ranks seventh in the field and birdies are better gain the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national That's despite being Just 48th in approach and 54th in putting and that may make it seem a bit fluky But it all adds up to to mcnealy and ranking 12th and true strokes gained over the past six months over at data golf So he finished fourth year last year mcnealy has had good finishes recently. He has upside I like him a lot at 98 if you had to pick one Would you go mcnealy or nox? I already asked you mcnealy versus Uh Kirk I think earlier on mcnealy versus nah who you got for kutcher is asking about My pencil didn't kevin nah versus maverick mcnealy for a head-to-head bet Are you gonna make me delete that or are you gonna The wind bets are not skewing my way here recently. Yeah, I got what five out of the past seven Now it's 17 to 12 in that category. I'm trailing. That's distressing. Okay. Well, I gotta figure it out here Mav my boy coming through for me this week versus kevin nah Let's uh Finish with the mid-range here with a guy we both like we had and had when I talked about him before So I'll let you take the floor now Yeah, so had one for me again. It's just the course where you can bump up Accuracy and irons and for me that is definitely an adam had one set up strong putter overall and virtually any surface 87th percentile and strokes gained fairway through green among this field Which you might not really realize at the salary of 9500 and with the form being You know adam had one's back on the radar, but hasn't been for a long time So it's probably a little bit surprising to see that number over the past year Which does account for weights in recency Still really strong number there when he's finished top 10 in three straight starts highlighted by a t9 at the players so I'm in on adam had one this week I most likely think he's gonna be A lock in our head to head and I'm starting to see the shape that my main lineup is going to take for this week and top heavy approach, but that still gets you to hadwin as being one of those final slots and I think that is Appealing I think that I'm talking myself more into the value plays and that's allowing me to feel More okay with like the top heavy approach this week. I have had as my second player pick as well So let's move down to value plays guys at $9,000 or lower. Who is standing out to you there? Russell Knox right at 9,000 one of the best ball strikers in the field Leads the field and greens and regulation gained over the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national The short game is always the issue with nox, but Really accurate off the tee you like to see that is due for putting regression According to the formula I use based On your putting from within 15 feet Not quite as bad a putter as the the full sample data implies. However, there's a difference gym between Being primed for putting regression And being good at putting being a good putter the baseline is still the baseline expectation still is that he would be a negative putter overall But he shouldn't be losing as many strokes putting And then we're getting a guy who should have a little bit warmer of a putter While hitting these fairways and striping the iron So I think it's a really good setup for nox this week And I think the putting discussion is part of why favor Cameron Trigali over nox at the same salary Trigali is 9,000 He's fallen off the map recently so point for nox there But some of that was due to being a courses where driving mattered more than what it does this week I'm going to give Trigali a shot here at 9,000 Trigali has not finished better than 60 second in a stroke play event since the genesis But he did golf decent well at the match play his irons have still been fine. Even if not necessarily like pristine right now Trigali 38th and fair good drives gained. He's 32nd in approach still He's 23rd in putting and I think the salary is low enough to overcome The issue of the form for Trigali. So I'm back in on cam Trigali. Where are you on him? And where is he compared to nox? um, I think they're about even I'm going to side with nox just because I prefer The t-degree in play overall Trigali also expected for putting regression in the positive sense while also still being a positive putter Um, I think that just in terms of sheer upside Uh, I'm going to lean toward nox over Trigali and I'm going to disagree with my model on that one. Wow But I feel pretty solid with russo nox this week. Good golly. Trim camp Trigali. He's back He's back. That's all I have to say. Uh, who else do you like here in the value tier? Um, I have eric van royne 8700 I know I mentioned some lower tier value plays all realize off after the fact but eric van royne deserves some attention himself Uh, we need to like a we need a good nickname for for evr with the moustache jogger minus evr Given given what happens when I typically use him. I feel like that's an appropriate number minus expected value royan Yeah, well, so like we do with joel damon damon night man. Yeah. Yeah plus evr minus evr. Yes I think it's a plus evr week. Uh, this week. Good. I like it. Um, really balanced driver He's long but also accurate not the longest or most accurate but a plus in both of those categories Also, 92nd percentile an adjusted stroke scan approach 21st here in his debut and only started the rbc heritage. So I think there's enough there to like With evr to call him plus evr this week to be determined I'm gonna talk here about denny mccarthy at 90 or 8600 mccarthy Seems like it's probably a good spot to use him at a course like this because mccarthy can Be somewhat uh, agreeable when it comes to like, you know, not not distant stuff He's 41st in good dries gained. He can put the lights out as we know and mccarthy did show a bit of that last year here He finished 13th at this event Did gain a bit with his ball striking too, which is kind of weird for denny mccarthy Recently we've not seen mccarthy get good finishes, but he hasn't been bad and It's a course more conducive to his skill set and that may help things a decent amount. So I do Like denny mccarthy this week. I know he's not typically my kind of guy. So what are your thoughts on mccarthy? Um, he didn't really pop for me. I think he's just sort of in the mix in that range down there and It's not necessarily enough for him to differentiate over some other names. So I'm probably out on mccarthy Um, but not to the point that I would talk you out of him Just can't really play everyone and I think there's some maybe more intriguing names in that range Okay, so let's finish up here with our win picks for the rbc heritage based on The current odds over at fandal sportsbook. I have not given this any thought yet So this is gonna be great, uh, great content as I try to figure out Which picks suck the least Because I don't know. Do you have any who immediately stand out to you? um, I think For me, I'm definitely going with daniel burger. Okay. That's not really a question at 29 to 1 I think that's still a great number And I feel really good with that. Okay, so he's my number one I think that's a good pick. I'm not going to overlap with you, but I think that's a good pick Uh to go with burger you burger 29 to 1 I am Tempted to blame it on the henley Maybe go rustle henley at 29 as well same number as burger Oh, give me daniel burger any day No, henley's gonna win. Okay. I want henley. I'm out of defiance now. You've You've lured me into this where I want to go with rustle henley. So give me rustle henley I like rustle henley plenty his odds have shortened a ton Um, so I'm sure jim once he realizes that it's going to be disappointed because he usually tries to Stay away from that situation. Yeah, I don't like to buy low on their buy high and steam. It's not great Okay, who else do you want besides burger? I will go with adam hadwin 65 to 1 a little bit longer than we typically go on this show But i'm gonna go hadwin the other consideration for me Probably kevin not 41, but i'm just gonna go the adam hadwin route. Can you pull up? How many times I picked maverick mcneely because I think it's a lot um It's one at least So one two So two this year. Let's make it three I'm gonna go with maverick mcneely as my win pick here For the rpc heritage. He is 50 to 1 right now for a fangirl sports book again He makes birdies and I need to find the guys who can make birdies in this event. So I will go with mcneely And henley as my picks and you will go with burger and hadwin. I like yours I think I like yours more than mine, but we'll see how things go for this week That is all that we have here for today on heat check fantasy podcast because we got to go off and do More meetings or something. I don't know got to grab some dinner here in new york So it's been fun hanging out with you and it'll be weird to transition back into staring at you on a screen But i'll feel more safe knowing that i'm not within like Arms length. I didn't interrupt you that as much as usual. So you actually were right. Yeah, yeah, okay fair enough You were right. Um, I was wrong Somehow more restrained but by the way, this is fun. I appreciate we should do it again sometime Yeah, we should uh, but you know, look, we're gonna go do the show the way we typically do but at least I know where to look Because I still haven't figured it out this whole time Directly at the camera That is all that we have here for today brandon before we go any final uh words of wisdom and where people find you on twitter Uh, be okay to be different this week. It's you're gonna see a lot of weird names a lot of different names on the leaderboard accept that embrace it and use it to your advantage and i'm Uh on twitter at goodwill 13 gd. ULA 13 and i'm at jim sonnis g i m s a m n e s You can also follow the fan to a podcast network at fan to a podcast Thank you all so very much for tuning in and good luck to you with your pga dfs lineups for the rvc heritage to open We'll talk to you once again next week. 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