 Week 18 can definitely be a bit messy for NFL, DFS, but I do still think that given the number of teams with high motivation for this week and the amount of information we've gotten already, it's still a pretty good week to fill out some lineups over on FanDuel.com. We're gonna break down who stands out when we dig in and outline motivation, role changes, et cetera, all the factors to consider will outline what motivation means in Week 18 and get you ready to hopefully fill out some slick lineups to round out the regular season. This is the Heat Check Fantasy podcast right here on the FanDuel podcast network and FanDuel research. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for FanDuel research. Joined here as I am every Thursday by Brandon Gadoula. Check him out on Twitter at Gadoula13. He is a senior managing editor for FanDuel research. Brandon, Week 18 is already here. How are you doing today? Great, lots of information to sift through. A lot of ways to get the analysis paralysis and the regular season. What could be better? What could possibly be better than that? And it's definitely a tough slate because we've got a lot of backups moving into bigger roles and our job is to identify, do those backups have enough upside to justify going their way? And that's not an easy question to answer because the best path to volume, or best path to upside is volume and those guys will get that, but it's still a lot to juggle. So we'll try to break it down for you today, outline teams that are wrestling players, teams with motivation, what that all means, which value players wanna trust, and more to get you ready for Week 18. But first, gotta mention, Brandon, that our bobble hat is coming down to Week 18 because you've defeated me this past week. We had a tie. We had a dead heat in one of the weeks, which means Week 18 will decide who wins. If you're a new listener, the bobble hat is our weekly head-to-head. If I win, Brandon knows me a bobble head as you're watching on Fanduel YouTube or Fanduel TV Plus, the bobble heads back here, including Debra Keshav Ferguson, our results of our head-to-head. And Brandon, of course, has like 16 hats behind him that I have bought him as a result of our head-to-head. So how are you feeling entering the final week, the decider of this year? Well, I let a lead slip away, pretty much ever since the tie, which was actually, I think, a six versus six situation. It wasn't like we had the same lineup, which we almost did. What would that be? Week 15, the James Cook one. Which we had the same lineup, but Jim pivoted to James Cook and he went off and now has used up all his scandal points since then, apparently. But I'm feeling good, clawing my way back, trying to make good decisions. But it's always fun to build head-to-head lineups, as well as the tournament Galaxy Brain lineups and trying to find those game stacks. It's a fun thought process to build those lineups. And thankfully, my wife just bought me a crisp new Bill's hat on... In honor of James Cook, I assume. Is the element of my side, is that what we're saying here? Like she wanted to needle you for the James Cook thing? No, she's a fan of good hats and good deals. And so, I'm gonna go with my head cannon instead. Well, I'm feeling freed up. That's what I'm saying. I just got a new hat, so... Finding the house money, okay, I got you. Well, we'll break down some thoughts on that, who are considerations for head-to-head lineups and tournaments and much more. They're out the show for today, but first, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, wherever you get your podcasts, because we'll be here throughout the post season, including for the Super Bowl, Single Game Slate all right here, the Thursday before each slate, live at 10 a.m. Eastern on the Fandal YouTube page, and also going up on Fandal TV Plus after that. We also, of course, do have the Daily ISO with Tom Vecchio every weekday, talking NBA, DFS also over on Fandal TV Plus, and UFC DFS via Austin Swain on the heat check as well, all right here in the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. If you like what you hear, leave us a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. We appreciate those of you who have done so already. Also, this is the final week of the free play over at Fandal Research, go to Fandal.com slash research, click the article on the homepage to get the link to the weekly free play. Final week of that is this week, so if you wanna play some DFS with no entry fee, go to Fandal.com slash research and click on the link on the homepage to get a link to the free play. The NFL regular season is wrapping up, but there is still time to get in on the action of Fandal America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. That's 150 bucks in bonus bets, win or lose. The app is so easy to use and there are so many different ways to bet, like live zing game parlays, bets in the new explore tab, make a parlay in the parlay hub, the best way to find popular parlays and more. So visit Fandal and make your first bet a layup. Fandal official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in present and select states. Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. First online real money wager, only $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued is now in trouble. Bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. See terms or restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.Fandal.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMLER or visit Fandal.com slash RG Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXT-STEP to 533-422 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777 over to ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut. 1-800-9 within Indiana. 1-800-522-4700, visit kscamblinghealth.com in Kansas. 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana. Visit MD Gambling Health Oregon, Maryland. 1-800-GAMLER.NET in West Virginia. 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghealthline.org or call 132-750-50 for 247 Supporting Massachusetts or call 1-877-770, open Y or text open Y in New York. Let's dig in now to our slate overview for week number 18 and Brandon to me it comes down to identifying where teams have outright motivation to win. Where teams are sitting starters and whether we can trust guys we're getting more of a volum as a result and identifying which guys, which value we actually think is worth it. Which value does have a path to the ceilings. We do need a ceiling out of our low salary place too. So that's the key thing for me is parsing through the news and deciding which of it is actionable versus which of it is saying, okay, I just won't use that guy as a result. And that's a tough thing for sure. So what's the key to you to this week 18 slate? Uh, similar, but just so that I don't say the same exact thing you say, uh, kind of trying to figure out how I'm going to be able to build my lineup space and what I'm seeing at wide receiver so far. I think we're, we, we always disagree or it sounds like we disagree when we kind of agree where there are a few names in like the 6,000 range that are viable, you know, Drake London, Chris Godwin, the Andre Hopkins, but I don't love any of those names and I don't really love any of the, the value receivers, um, who might have more extended roles, at least yet now talking through the slate always helps. I maybe see a name or two, think about a game a little bit more, but I need to find that because if you don't find anyone you really like and you're talking yourself into, you know, again, it sounds like we're different. Drake London, for example, he has a path upside, but I don't necessarily think he's going to realize his upside necessarily those kinds of things. So basically I need to figure out what I'm doing to receiver because if I need to save enough salary to roster three guys at like 7,000 or higher, it does change the rest of how I can build my lineup. So I'm looking for receivers. It's kind of what I'm looking for this week. Yeah, I agree with that because it is hard to find guys who are palatable below, you know, the Godwin range, I would say. I think Godwin himself is fine and I can get okay with that, but like beyond that, like you said, it's pretty tough. I might be a bit higher in Drake London. Well, if Christian Kirk, we can discuss later on too. But value receiver is tough. I think value or mid-range running back is pretty easy this week. Like there are legitimately seven running backs in the mid-range. I feel pretty good about. So I think to me that's where I want to pepper. And maybe that impacts my view of the lower salary backs shifting into larger roles like, Hey, I can just spend $700 more and get you someone who like I feel good about. Um, and it's it's an interesting dilemma for sure. And that does impact things for sure. Let's dive in now to motivation. Typically go injuries first. But I think motivation is kind of the key thing for week 18. And this will be my first trend of the week is talking about what motivation has done for past DFS perfect lineups. So the best lineup you could have filled out on Vanduul was the motivation level of players who wound up in those perfect lineups. So let's put some data behind that. Vanduul had a flex spot dating back to 2018. So five years of data to work with as of now in that five years. 23 of 45 players in perfect lineups have had something on the line. 19 of those have been high motivation spots, meaning they were playing for either a buy, a division win, or a playoff spot overall. 21 players were on teams, a little bit for the playoffs. Again, out of 45 total and only one has come from a team locked into its seat. I think that's enough to cross off the cheese, Browns and almost all the 49ers, depending on Jordan Mason in that backfield. Chiefs and Browns already resting guys, which means starting quarterbacks are Jeff Driscoll, Blaine Gabbard. I almost said Glane Babburgs. I call him that and it's hard to stop calling him that. Glane Babbert, starter for the Chiefs. I don't want to tie guys to that. So Jordan Mason's different discussion, but I'd also be skeptical of the Lions. I know Dan Campbell has said they'll play. We've seen the spread Titan there for the Lions and Vikings to three and a half. It was five and a half earlier. That to me says there's a chance that the Lions maybe do sit guys. Maybe they start, but then don't finish the game. I think it's pretty risky for them. The Lions could still be the two seed technically, but it's a pretty thin path to that and the Rams either the six or seven. So I don't think they care too much, honestly, which one they want up with there. And they've already said no Matthew Stafford, no Kyron Williams. Most of the players from eliminated teams that made it were not scrubs. So we're not seeing a lot of like Rando's pop in the lineups. You have had guys like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Josh Allen, George Kittle and Nick Chubb make it in week 18, despite the fact their teams were limited. So most of the guys who made it were not backups. We'll see backups get more volume this week. But if that volume comes in bad offense or the other backups, it's fair to be wary of that volume. So don't cross those guys off, but give some thought as to whether they have the upside to make you regret not using them. Motivation has seemed to matter most at running back in defense, eight out of 11 running backs in perfect lineups were on teams of high motivation, four or five defenses had at least something on the line. So I'm not going to cross off limited players at running back. I think there are a couple of guys I actually feel pretty good about there like James Conner and Saquon Barkley. But I will give a decent bump to those fighting for something. Motivation has mattered a bit less in other spots at quarterback three out of five quarterbacks been eliminated at receiver was 10 out of 18. The tight end is four out of six. There actually was a tight end in the flex one year. One of the others was on a team locked into its seat. So for me, I'm going to weigh motivation, but I'm also not going to make my player pool be exclusively guys with something on the line. I'll weigh it most at running back in defense. I'll weigh it some for sure. A quarterback, receiver and tight end. If a player on a team that's eliminated is getting more volume like thrust into a larger role, I'll be skeptical unless I believe they have a path to a true ceiling game. So the teams with high motivation this week are the Bills, Dolphins, Jaguars, Cowboys, Eagles, at least until the Cowboys pull away. I think they should push most of the game, but that's a risk at least. Buccaneers, Saints, Falcons, Packers and Seahawks. The teams playing for just eating are Lions and Rams. Rams again, already announced they're resting some starters and teams locked in their seat are the Chiefs, 49ers and Browns. So Brandon, hearing that any impact for you for the way you want to play and things, any takeaways for you based on what we've seen from past week 18, perfect lineups? I mean, it's a lot to soak in and apply. And one of the things like we talk about, I mean, we obviously have a trends section on the podcast and we talk about, you know, data and how to implement it. But neither of us is ever going to follow it blindly without thinking about like the repercussions of what that means and what it's telling us. One thing that really jumped out to me that's a little bit backwards, although I guess not necessarily, that motivation matters a lot of running back. I would kind of think it would be the teams that are eliminated might just give a third string running back a lot of volume or something. But this all kind of, if you take a step back, it's not that different than how we play the full season where we still want players in good offenses who have chances to score. Teams that are eliminated probably have, probably have, you know, the teams that are eliminated probably don't have a whole lot of offensive efficiency expected for them. So as usual, I still want players with projectable workloads. And one thing that I don't, one thing that I'm not necessarily are we good? Can you hear me? Kind of like you sound like a robot to me. I don't know. I'm trying to figure it out, but it's it's not really working just yet. So OK, I can like see your mouth moving if that counts. But all right, I think my like my all right. I was trying not to draw attention to it, but I'm very, very puzzled by it. So hey, it's week 18. All right. So it is week 18 for our technology as well. So what we're going to do is we're going to talk through some injuries here. I might understand what you're saying, but I'm also might just relaunch my browser and see what happens there. But regardless, let's at least give it a shot here and see. Let's talk about some injuries to note for week 18. Bunch of back of quarterbacks going this week, alluded to some of those earlier on San Dardo will start for the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey also out. Carson Wentz will start for the Rams. Confirming they're not going to gun hard for the 60. Kyron Williams is sitting there. Blaine Gabbard gets the ball for the Chiefs. Likely know, Isaiah Pacheco, Rashida Rice, Travis Kelsey might stand to get a thousand yards, but then dip after that. Jeff Driscoll starts to the Browns, the Rams. Again, no Kyron Williams, no Cooper Kup, nowhere in Donald. That confirms that none of those teams are going to push hard. Personally, I am crossing off every player on these teams other than maybe Jordan Mason for the 49ers. Anybody else you think we should make an exception for on these rosters? I think Mason's the one to consider. So we'll have to talk about him a little bit more. But I'll just also mention that Chris Conley's salary is 4,200. So you may have said something I actually don't know. I'm going to get out of here and I'll let you talk for a second. If you want to read through the the Dolphins notes, I'll come back into the second. OK, I'm going to take the lead here. Something that I don't I don't think I've done in eight years. Whenever this happens, I just kind of do it. I can't till Jim comes back in. So bear with me. But he most certainly a lot of both missed practice Wednesday. After sitting in week 17, Waddle could miss, but he did take part in a walkthrough on Wednesday. So doors open for the return most of practice last Friday, but wound up being inactive, leading to a big role for Devon HN. We're going to talk about the Dolphins in the bookmaker section for the Eagles Devontae Smith missed practice Wednesday due to an ankle injury. He was in a walking boot and crutches after Sunday. I think he was still in the boot as of Monday, but it's a huge game for the Eagles. Doesn't look necessarily great for Smith in terms of his playing time expectations. We're going to talk about the Eagles in trends, even though they could be scoreboard watching. They're one of the more fascinating teams for week 18 for the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence got in a limited practice after missing week 17. He's dealing with a shorter injury. Zay Jones missed that one as well, limited with his knee and hamstring. But the bigger news is that Christian Kirk returned to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday. He could come off injured reserve, had a groin injury that required surgery. It was pretty gnarly the description of what he was playing through. I think since week six, I'm not going to go over that, but it's been a while that he's been playing through it. So it would make sense if he tries to fight through it, but it would also make sense if they just rest him up once more. His salary is only 4,000 on Fandle. So again, very, very fascinating spot. We're going to talk more about Kirk and the Jaguars in the trend section, but definitely the type of play who could really open things up and be a very different level of week 18 value play than a reserve player stepping into a bigger role. The Buccaneers are in a must-win game. Baker Mayfield has, I think, a lot of injuries, it seems like, but dealing with a rib injury that he suffered at the end of week 17 didn't practice Wednesday. Kyle Trask will get the first team reps in practice, but as Jim would definitely want me to point out, it's a revenge game for Baker Mayfield. Sounds like he's going to go. We're going to talk about the Bucs in the trend section. T. Higgins missed practice with a hamstring injury on Wednesday. He was able to return last week after getting that hamstring injury. I think he had a downfield target, but I don't think he was really targeted a ton after that specific injury. The Bengals have been eliminated from the playoffs. Now, Jamar Chase, though, was limited after his shoulder injury last week. As for Chase, the salary of 7800, it's still appealing. This team is not necessarily phoning it in. Jake Browning's efficiency, if you adjust for opponent's face, has actually been pretty good. The pure volume hasn't been anything like phenomenal. Well, I guess the passing yards have been better than I realized. 197 last week against the Chiefs, 335, 324, 275, 354. But again, it's the efficiency that's been good, but the touchdowns haven't quite added up. I think you could probably do worse. Four teams eliminated and going to the Bengals. As for Chase again, salary is 7800. He's probably not going to project well because he's playing, quote, unquote, like a really tough defense, but going to get some reserves there. And Jamar Chase definitely fits the bill of the type of player who can make the perfect lineup in a week 18. I'm not going to surprise anyone if he puts up like 130 yards and a touchdown or two, but it would also not surprise me if anything gets aggravated that he doesn't necessarily play a full amount of staff. So again, there's risk, but there's also reward for someone like Chase. Moving on to the Saints, Alvin Camara did not practice Wednesday with an ankle injury that he suffered in week 17. Nick Underhill said he thinks that Alvin Camara has a good shot to go this week. Joanne Johnson is coming off a big game, didn't practice with a chest injury. Kendry Miller was limited in practice with an ankle injury. He has not played since week nine, but would be in the mix. It's I think it's safe to say if Camara did sit. So we got Camara banged up, Joanne Johnson as well. But we could get Kendry Miller back and that would kind of make it a little bit complicated for Jamal Williams. This is a must win game for the Saints that definitely makes them one of the more interesting teams up here against the Falcons this week. Chris O'Lave salary seventy three hundred. Jim's back. I can hear you now. You don't like a robot. It's weird. So it's your fault. Oh, yeah. It was a hundred percent of my fault the whole time. I knew that. When's the last time you restarted that computer? Oh, buddy, I can't tell you that answer. You're asking unanswerable questions. But it sounds great now. We are crystal clear, baby. I did an internet speed test. I hit speeds that I have never seen in my life before. I'm like, you tested it while you were doing the injury section. It was when you were still here. I was like, oh, OK, no, like it happened before, like it happened pre-show when I was talking to Ed for the power for covering the spread. I restarted and it was immediately fine. So I knew it was me and a professional podcaster. What was this back in 2017 when you last restarted it? That might have been the last time, yes. Well, I'm talking about the Saints right now. Are you still in the injury section? Yeah, I was trying to stretch it out. I don't know how long. All right, well, you keep talking. I'm going to get my tabs back open. I trust you. You're just going to handle the whole show if that's OK. Oh, please, no. I stumbled a bit because I had to switch on like the rare times I've done a hosting position. Yeah. I have the luxury of self-editing things after the fact. But I'm glad you just write detailed notes. I just read everything that you wrote, but I tried to say it in a way that I would say it as well. So what do you say? We say we don't we don't write their talk the same. You know, wow, it's close. OK, OK. So I'm sure everyone missed this. So it was like your your computer should we wish that Jim's computer had done an update without without prompting here. Yeah, if you if you had said like, hey, it's updated by six hours. See you see you next week. I don't know how to shut off the stream. I don't know any of this. I don't think you can. I don't think I can either. You can't. It would have run forever. It would have been great. Maybe I'll just dip out, let you handle things. That OK? No, I'll go grab like a churro or something. I don't know. Isn't it like 6 a.m. central time? It's 9 24. I had a look. I actually wasn't sure what time it was anyway. To keep talking saints, because I'm going to try to find where you are in the rundown. Yeah, so I just I was about to gush over Chris, I love it once more. I think Chris, I love he's been in my loves. If I went back and looked probably half the season, if not more. Yeah, just love the dude. I he's apparently become my favorite receiver. He is once again, one of my loves this week. Salary of 7300. Indoors coming off of a down game. Just after a 123 yard 13 target game without a touchdown, which could have been huge double digit targets or sorry, double digital points a lot in his game log. John Johnson as well, someone that I that I like a lot. Now, the thing for the running backs is if I couldn't love Alvin Camara, it's hard to sell myself on loving Jamal Williams with potentially Kendra Miller. The issue, though, is like if we get Jamal Williams and no Kendra Miller, or even if we get Miller, like, don't you think they're just going to try to lean on Williams in this must win game? Because he's a veteran. He's been there. He's already been kind of relevant. But so they tried that the first game when Williams healthy Camara was out. Kendra Miller was also out for that game. It was back in week one. And Williams 18 carries and two targets, which is not a great role. And he turned into 52 yards. I just don't know if he has it really from a yardage perspective. So and like this, the Falcons defense is pretty good against the rush. So personally, I'm OK being low on this backfield pretty much regardless, unless Camara, you know, miraculously gets full practice by Friday. You say 18 carries and two targets is not a good role. It's not great. For the salary, I think it's it's interesting. It's fine. Yeah. It's better than most guys in that range will get. But just I think I need more volume from him, given how my expected levels of efficiency for him are at. Yeah, that's fair. I don't think that I'm going to get there, even without Miller. So hopefully Miller just plays in. Yeah, I agree. Then maybe we get Chris O'Loving the playoffs. Yeah. No, I want Baker in the playoffs. Well, I want Baker, rude. I guess they both could technically still make it, I think. Like it's a weird path and the Packers have to lose, which is possible. There's some other stuff that has to happen. But I just want to watch Baker. Josh Jacobs, mispractice Wednesday. But head coach Antonio Pierce said, Jacobs will push to play this week. Jacobs has practiced just once since his injury. And that was two weeks ago. We've got a random Thursday practice. So I still doubt he plays, but he at least could. What's your just level in Xamir White at sixty five hundred dollars of Jacobs can't go? Relatively high, but another just one of the situations where I got to be a little bit cautious because he can get scripted out a bit. He's played seventy percent, eighty one and fifty eight percent of the snaps the past three weeks without Jacobs. But the role last week, you know, obviously the lower snap right there, seventy three percent in the first half, but forty six percent in the second half as Amir Abdullah got more work and they were trailing. I don't know what to expect from this game. Do you have like a firm read on what we're getting here from the Broncos? I think that last week's role for White was better than I would have expected. If you had told me what that game flow would look like, because I know it was a three point game at the end, but it was it was a bit more slanted towards the Colts for most of it. So honestly, I thought it was encouraging. If you look at the three games altogether, White said nineteen point seven carries and three point seven targets per game, which is twenty seven carries plus two X targets, one hundred and twelve yards in scrimmage. That's a really good role. The Broncos defense has been better this year, but they've still been bad against the rush. So I think that White is actually a pretty good option at sixty five if there is no Jacobs. I prefer Bijon at sixty nine, Sauer's closer. But I think that Zemir White is in that Aaron Jones, James Conner, Saquon Barkley, James Cook tier for like number two for me behind Bijon personally. So Bijon, your number one overall, I think so. It's frightening. I think I got to go with my other NFC South darling this year, Rashad White is my RB one, but other than that, I mean, I think if I like value receivers more, I'd put Rashad White one. That's that's my issue is I'm building lineups. Definitely not while we're talking, definitely not while I was on here myself or anything. But that part's that's true. I wasn't doing that. I was just trying not to flounder too much. Yeah. But yeah, he's definitely in that tier. I'm just saying there's a little more risk to it than I would like. But I don't know what to expect from the Broncos. They could go lay down. I don't know. They could also go get fired up. Who could say? I think they'll pull. I think both teams will play decently hard, given their situations. Broncos playing for jobs. Raiders playing for Antonio Pierce to get him that full time job. So I expect the Raiders leads to play pretty hard still. Yeah. And motivation is it's personal. It's subjective, that kind of stuff. But I feel like I say this every year when I'm watching like Sierra doesn't really watch a lot of football till closer to the playoffs. Yeah. And I always like I always feel like I'm pointing out how hard everyone is playing, even when they're eliminated. I'm like, this matters to virtually everyone in the league. Like, yeah, if they're on the field, they're probably playing hard. So yeah, for sure. Jayden, Raiden, Christian and Watson were both able to get limited practices in on Wednesday for the Packers must win game for them. Watson has missed three games of the hamstring injury. Reed left early in week 17, but he said he's good to go. Packers are facing the Bears, assuming both those guys play. Will you target either now that their salaries are a bit higher than they were earlier on this year? Reed is 61. Watson 6. Or Reed, 71. Watson 65. I wish he was 64. Yeah, that would be phenomenal. I'll start with Reed. His role is really fun. He's also very good. I know he's not 100 percent, but really nobody's 100 percent at this point. So I'm OK to sort of factor that in. He gets carries. He gets creative looks. He can score multiple touchdowns because he's really, really good. The salary is reasonable. I don't quite know if I'd put him on the level of like an Olava or something, but he's not that far off because he gets. You know, I don't want to put every receiver who gets like carries in the Debo Samuel bucket, but it's Samuel. And I mean that in a complimentary way. And so that's really appealing. As for Watson, look, nobody cares about your fantasy teams or anything, but I drafted him sort of as a value and obviously he's been hurt. But I was able to like drop him and not sweat it. He had like, I think a two touchdown game right after that. But yeah, he kind of is really touchdown dependent. He's not he's clearly far from 100 percent. I don't really feel like he's a good process play. Yeah. That being said, he's sort of in that Gabe Davis bucket where if you like the game, if you like, you know, that it's going to be high scoring, you can consider him. But that's as far as the process kind of goes for me. Yeah. And I think that I agree with everything you said about him where not the best process based play, but like there's a path to a ceiling, which is encouraging in the games he has played this year. Watson's overall target share is 17 percent or 18 percent, which is not great, but he has a 36 percent deep target share and a 28 percent red zone share. Reed's role has been down a lot in Watson's case. I think he's played well enough to like nudge that up. So I would say I prefer Watson over Reed just because of concerns around some things, but thinking more about that, honestly, like the Packers have a long track record to their credit, I think, I would say of easing players in off of injury kind of being cautious and smart with guys and he's had a lot of hand string stuff. So I don't know. Maybe I should be a bit lower on him. But I think it does spread out the Packers targets bit to the point where I'd rather just go, maybe just a Aaron Jones, despite a tough matchup kind of thing. Uh, yeah, I don't want. I don't like want to throw your phone. Yeah, I was here and vibrate. I was like, I was like, my phone's never vibrate, but mine rarely is. But I'm all out of all out of sorts today for some reason. Yeah, I'm just going to. OK, I'm going to try to get us back on track. Rest of show. No nonsense. Rest of the show. Oh, sure. I believe you read. Jayden Reed has a carry or target on 19.6 percent of his snaps this year, which is basically like a top 10 rate. It's above Devonte Adams. The Hunter Hopkins is right below Keenan Allen, a CD lamb. That kind of helps adjust for the fact that he's not played full games a lot or like recently. So I think we're talking we're talking bears next. Yeah, I mean, kind of, yeah, let's let's move on to the bears and we'll kind of circle back and talk about this one. So that's with Cole Komett didn't practice Wednesday for the bears. He's a knee injury. He did play week 17, but super limited, just three routes for Komett in that game. The bears are in play against a pretty leaky Packers defense. But now Kometts banged up. They're really only maybe three or four guys in this team. It's Kometts. It's Justin Fields, DJ Moore, potentially Khalil Herbert. But I think it's sour. He's been higher than I would have hoped for on FanDuel this week. But how are you doing the bears with Komett banged up against a bad Packers defense? Yeah, this is I love how these always come down to the divisional games because you want to talk motivation like knocking a team out or just beating a team and we get team that your rival that stuff matters. So I think the bears, you know, they're set for the the draft. I think they don't they can go out and play tough. They're auditioning like Fields is auditioning for whether it be the bears or team X, you know, he's auditioning. Yeah, I think Fields is in the conversation for QB2. I think I'm just going to have Dak there as QB1 and have a hard time moving away from that. But he's in that conversation. He might he might be my QB2 by the by Sunday. But currently, I don't think I need to do it. He is for you. Currently, I can't fault that at all. The only thing that I he's just hard to stack because you have to get to DJ more. And it's probably worth it. The salary of 8000, though, is a little tricky. It's not bad given his ceiling. I don't think like, yeah, because yeah, his single game target share since week 11, just it's an arbitrary cutoff. But it's when things went nuts, 41 percent, 41 percent, 32 percent, 23 percent, 26 percent and 43 percent. And the 26 percent was when he got hurt early in the game, like he he played through, but he got hurt overall in the full games with Fields. So like a larger sample, 29 percent target share for more. That includes week one, we didn't do a whole lot against this Packers defense. But like, that's impressive when you include bad games and he's still at 29 percent, 39 percent deep target share. So I think that a Justin Fields DJ more probably leaning Aaron Jones bring back. I think that's a viable game stack this week. I would probably lean. Read. Sure. If you get to the full practice by Friday and Watson's still limited, then like I that would tilt things a bit more towards Reacher. What about Jordan Love? I think that Barrett's defense has played well enough where it's I'm a bit lower on him. It's hard to find someone I love for stacking there because part of Reed is he gets Red Zone Rush attempts, which doesn't help love. So I think he's a good quarterback. I just have a hard time with him for for DFS because. You know, it's it's a lot harder for me to stack him. Like, I think that he could maybe just go Jordan Love with Aaron Jones. I think that's not totally insane, given the amount of passing in work Jones gets, but it's fair to ask. Yeah, I like Love at 78, but it feels at 84. I feel like I'd probably want to try to get there if I'm stuck on this game. This feels like a bookmaker game that we talked about. So. Oh, yeah, it's a definitely game where I I'm OK with game stacks. I'd rather stack this game than Cowboys Commanders as part of like both sides. So yeah, I think that's totally fair. Speaking of bookmaker, let's dive in now and talk about three key games on this main slate and the headliner is Sunday night. And that actually is on the Fandall main slate. Typically, the Sunday night game is not in the main slate, but they've done this recently the past couple of years. They include the Sunday night hammer back in our lives. Once again, builds versus dolphins are right now. Fandall sportsbook, the bills are three point favorites. Total is forty nine and a half. Both teams have been a bit wonky recently, though. The dolphins got smoked last week to his shoulder is banged up. Josh Allen doesn't throw anymore. So how much of a priority is this game for you? Fairly big, but not as big as I thought it would be. Yeah. Also, I'm just going to get out in front of it. I'm not a bills fan. I have a dolphin's hat right beside me as well. We're both in on screen here, but I just wanted. I'd like to shout it out. It was just a nice hat. But yeah, it's a big one. Dolphins hat. We could we could go both, you know, cover both both sides. I like to have more when you restart your computer again. Fair, go ahead. I think we have like the running back value to get to Josh Allen. Ninety five hundred is really high and he's coming off of. Well, he's extended his streak of games with brushing touchdowns. He's got two is working backwards two, two, one, one and two. He didn't score against the Jets and then he had scored in four straight on the ground. Yeah, that's awesome. But weirdly, those aren't necessarily tied to like massive games because you as you mentioned, the passing is not really there. And while he's got like a lot of rush attempts, he's not. I think I see the 81 there, but he's not like going to get you 60, 80 yards rushing necessarily. He might in this game because it matters so much like he might just run like a crazy amount, but I think he will. Yeah. You think he'll get you think he'll get like 70 yards rushing. Well, I'm not going to bet that minus one ten if Andal sportsbook. But like I think that's what you see in playoff games is you see quarterbacks run a lot more. Yeah. And so like Alan's rushing prompt this week is thirty six and a half. Like let's actually see what 70 is. Curious. Plus for 70 yards, that's not kind of interesting. Maybe I am going to bet it, but like I think we do see quarterbacks run more in high leverage games. This is the highest leverage game you could possibly concoct, especially if the Steelers win on Saturday, which makes it a must win game for the bills. So I actually do think we're going to see them let their ostrich roam and that is letting Josh Allen run the football. Yeah. The question, though, is is he how much of a priority is you? Is he for for you at that salary? Not as much of a priority as Dak. Dak salaries, eighty seven. And I like Dak's matchup more. I like the way they're letting Dak cook more. So I prefer Dak, but even considering a salary, Alan is in that like QB to discussion. I almost made him a love inside of Justin Fields. So I think he's in that QB to discussion for me. I think that's very, very fair. Also, like we get the Sunday night hammer back, like how can I not be nostalgic back to like 2012? Oh, no, twenty fifteen. Fandall lineups. Yeah, I'm not going to advocate anyone. Makes their decisions based on nostalgia. Well, or else I'd be playing Chris Colme at forty two hundred. You looked at his salary. That's when I mentioned him already when we were talking Jordan Mason. Oh, but you missed it because you haven't restarted your computer since Sunday night football was on the main slate. Wow, that was a good callback. Good job. But I think that Alan's in the QB to discussion for me. And I also think that part of the reason I like it is because I can stack with Stefan Diggs and Diggs that is down to seventy six. You sure can. Yeah, should I? Maybe, I don't know. So like, look at this game log. It's abysmal, just hideous stuff. He has not had more than he is not at seventy five yards since the coordinator change with Joe Brady as Max is seventy four. He's done over fifty once. However, target totals have been fine and the target shares are awesome. Look at the game, the the target share since Dawson Knox came back digs the thirty two percent with a forty three percent deep target share. Like, I know they're three point favorites here, but like, will they be able to ground and pound the opponent to death in this game? I don't know, probably not. So I think that it's a good spot to buy into digs. That is famous last words from the past month and second half of last year, too. But I do like him a lot of seventy six. So I have a lot of interest here in getting to Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, even if it does force me to lean on the six thousand range running backs. Yeah, I'm going to lean on the six thousand range running backs a lot anyway, or at least like the low sevens, too. And you look at this box score that Jim has pulled up. No touchdowns in four straight games. And you would think like, OK, eventually things will change. He's overperformed from a touchdown standpoint. Largely because he had a three touchdown game against Miami. But batter versus pitcher data. Let's go. Yeah. Yeah, pretty much. Like I see the case. I think he's. When I build Josh Allen lineups, digs will be in there, but I'm not looking at Stefan Diggs as a one off play ever. Yeah, I think the DK Metcalf at the same salary is a better one off play in the Seahawks Cardinals game we'll discuss here in a second. Yeah. Yeah. Mentioned or I think you mentioned that Jalen Waddle has a chance to go this week. Seven thousand dollars for him. Terry kill ninety five. I want to talk more about the running backs, though. James Cook, Saturday, seventy four. Like the bills have been run heavy. It makes sense that it's been Cook who's benefited and he has now. It hasn't translated to a lot of fan dual points recently because it seems like teams are keying in on trying to stop him as a pass catcher. No targets against the Chargers three against the Patriots for negative four yards. But overall, if we look at James Cook, since the coordinator change, he's at eighty or sixteen point two carries three point seven targets and a hundred and thirteen yards and scrimmage per game. Red Zone chair is twenty five percent. That actually is an improvement from nineteen percent with Ken Dorsey. So I feel like Cook. Is more likely to be in my main line at the Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, because I like Dak so much. How are you and James Cook here? Like them. There's still a wide range of outcomes and the highest of highs. While I, you know, we're looking at the thirty five point one. It's more like the twenty two point six range, I think, is more realistic here. The other thing that kind of worries me about this game, which just then applies to James Cook, because I'm trying to get as nitpicky as I can, because we have a big slate. We're going to have some value is Miami can play slow. They haven't been lighting it up necessarily. This game could be. Hey, let's not make a mistake that costs us the season or that costs us seeding. That's like that's the sort of one of the things that has me lower on this situation. Now, with that being said, James Cook is one of my loves, because I think I'm higher on this game than that, but it is a fear. I'm always looking for like the sort of bullet proof can't can't knock it. Sort of process plays. I still see some holes with Cook, but you can't really argue the volume. And if memory serves, Miami is pretty bad against running backs out of the backfield. Yeah, I haven't twenty ninth and player level adjusted. Fandal points per target. So again, I'm high on Cook. Don't think he's like a slam dunk play. Would like to bring it back somehow. But I think before we move off the bills, any thoughts on any other bills, you know, including your boy or don't concede? Yeah, my boy is Gabe Davis. I feel like it's been not super difficult to predict him this year, like when he's going to bust, which is most of the time. But like the Eagles and Charters games like, OK, that makes a lot of sense. I just don't feel as though this is a spot where I expect him to go nuts. Now, it's a good game to stack, which is typically the setup you want for Gabe Davis. But the Dolphins, they've had a lot of injuries, their defense, a lot of key injuries, but it's primarily to pass catcher. I know Xavier Howard is banged up, didn't practice Wednesday with a foot injury. If he can't go, that would probably bump up Davis a bit because Jill Ramsey hasn't shattered much this year, but he has the time. So I think if you're going to use Jill and Ramsey to shadow, you would probably do with Stefan Diggs. And that would leave Gabe Davis against a pretty banged up defense overall. So I'm not overly high in him, honestly. I don't think he's in play as a one off at sixty four hundred dollars. I much prefer Drake London if I'm in that range for a one off. So no one off for me. He's been in that range or been in that discussion at times this year, just not this week, but I will have a non zero number of Davis lineups exclusively tied to game stacks this game. But I'm lower on him than I am a lot of times is what I would say. I needed to check in because even though I'm wearing the bills hat, you you have the read on Gabe Davis. Kinkade is fifty seven. I think it's a pretty good salary for him. He actually got some deep work this past week, more so than he's gotten previously, seven targets, eighty seven yards. I mentioned before the splits for them since Dawson Knox came back. And in that time, Kinkade is at a nineteen percent target share, fourteen percent deep and thirty three percent inside the red zone. That's not bad at all, honestly. So I think fifty seven is probably my favorite tight end below six thousand below Jake Ferguson. What are your thoughts there? Yeah, I think he's a player love for me. That's fair. I read those a bit ago, but just to get away from. Yeah, to get like away from the high salary guys, you can really justify it a little bit more easily, specifically Trey McBride. Nineteen point four percent target shares since Dawson Knox came back. Thirty three percent of the red zone targets. High target per route rate to help adjust in Miami is not great against tight ends. So Kinkade helps offset. Josh Allen's salary while also getting you a lot of touchdown equity because of his red zone role. Yeah, Josh Allen could still run for, you know, two touchdowns. But if he throws one, it goes to Kinkade. Wouldn't surprise me because of the red zone role that he has. I'd agree with that. OK, let's talk about the dolphin side of things. I think, you know, the Terry kill is in play at ninety five. Like, I don't need to sell you on that. My question for you is one lineup, you go and Terry killer CD lamb. Lamb, I agree. Let's talk about the right and, you know, hills and good play, but like prefer lamb as far as priorities go. I think that most of it will play if he does play. I think both the backs are pretty tough to pallet. Tough to stomach for me personally. But if most or does not go Devon HN salaries, eighty two hundred dollars in the games where HN snap rate has been at least 40 percent. He's at one hundred and twenty two point nine yards from scrimmage per game with a thirty two percent red zone share. So there's no most or I'd feel really good about HN. I prefer him over Rashad White in that scenario at seventy seven hundred dollars as like the spend up kind of running back. He's a tough bring back for a Josh Allen lineup. I'd probably go Kinkade over. Josh Allen, that scenario. But what where are you on an HN if we think that most incidents again, I don't think he will, but just hypothetically. I would prefer him to Rashad White. Would start to put the. It starts to make it tough to build out a lineup because I don't I like Geno Smith. Other than that, I don't anticipate spending down a lot at quarterback. Yeah. And whenever that's the case, it makes it hard, you know, even at eighty eighty two hundred dollar salary, if you're plugging in Dak Prescott and you want to get to CD lamb, things drive really quickly. And I'm not, you know, we're not about playing tons of values and eliminated teams. So right. I do prefer him, but I think that's kind of just where I am. Yeah, I think I'd agree that as well. Any final thoughts for you on this game? Two has been really match up dependent this year. This is not a great match up. So the FOMO is lower, which plays into why I'm lower on Tyree Kill. I agree that as well. Let's take a look now at the second bookmaker game, which is the Seattle Seahawks on the road, taking on the Arizona Cardinals, a must win game for the Seahawks. And they are two and a half point favorites here. Total is forty seven and a half. That spread, though, has been tightening. It was three earlier on this week. Now two and a half. The Seahawks side here is in a great matchup. The Cardinals as well as our offenses play, their defense has still been doggy due. So we love the Seahawks. I can say that. How are you viewing the Cardinals as a bring back option here? Yes, the Seattle's. What are they in adjusted rush defense? I think 30. Are they 30 second right? They might be dead last. I think they're dead last if too many things open. But I think they're dead last. Arizona is 28th. Great game. Well, this game. Yeah, OK. So their last defenses. But the thing is Seattle is really struggled. Keeping the ball like that. They're time of possession. The past six games have been 24 minutes, 23, 31, 27, 26, 22. You know, if you watch that Steelers game, it felt like they weren't like the Seahawks weren't ever really on the field. Pittsburgh just wore the clock down. It's because Seattle can't stop the run. And, you know, this is a team where you probably want to stop the run a bit because Arizona is 27th and pass rate over expectations since Kyler came back. You you mentioned James Conner and passing, I think, already. He doesn't fit like the overall perfect lineup trend. But that's not James Conner is good enough at football in this matchup to have a good game, keep Seattle off the field. And again, this is what Arizona is playing for is, you know, hurting Seattle's chances. I think the motivation is going to be there. So I'm a little bit worried about Seattle, not to the point that I won't play them, but that's kind of my read on this game. Yeah, I love James Conner. I think he's an awesome option this week. And the game since Kyler came back, which is also since Conner came back. 16.1 carries 2.7 targets per game for 86.7 yards. Those numbers aren't phenomenal. But when you put them in a good matchup with a 46 percent red zone share overall, that's pretty sick. Seventy three hundred dollars. I think he's like kind of on par James Cook in that range, honestly, which is a big compliment to him, because I do like cook quite a bit. But Conner, I think, is a really good option. They've been eliminated since like the preseason. So like they've been playing this whole way the the entire year. And I think that's enough to really like Conner at seventy three, given the matchup. So Conner, I'm on board with you mentioned some question marks around Seattle. I do. I understand what you're saying. And that's fair. The situations in which I feel best about Seattle pass catchers are when they're going to get push. And I think they might get pushed a decent amount here, even a bad their defenses. And again, it's a must win game. So since they're bi-week in the games, a DK Metcalf has played. DK has a 24 percent target share with 38 percent deep and 45 percent inside the red zone. That high leverage work is awesome. And it's allowed him to get to 90 plus yards four separate times in that span. Seventy six hundred dollars he's playing indoors. Terrible opposing pass defense. I think that DK is like one of my favorite plays in the entire slate, regardless of position, regardless of salary. Sounds like you're lower on him than I am, though. See, it sounds like that, but he's a player love for me. OK, I just see the paths to, oh, gosh, Arizona's just bleeding the clock. DK's got 40 percent of 20 pass attempts because they just can't can't be on the field. Five targets is enough for 125 yards, baby. Let's go. I love DK this week. I've been talking about potential regression for him for a while. The volume, though, like when I saw how good his target shares have been, but how low the volume has been, I looked into it and I was like, I realize the pace, the time of possession has just been so low. It's possible again this week, based on what Arizona can do or chooses to do and be really run heavy. So that's my only downside. Also, sort of, you know, I like the market shares enough. They're not necessarily as great because Jackson, Smith and Jigba has been more involved, Tyler Lockett's involved, but they all kind of cannibalize one another to the point that I don't. It doesn't help me. Like three receivers is too many for DFS for me. I still I prefer Metcalf. Do you have any interest in JSN, though? Mild just because there's nothing down there. And so it's really a salary based thing. It's not I like his archetype or his like profile thing, which is not what I want to do. Yeah, this is the exact kind of thing I've been trying to avoid all season, which is correct. That's what you should be doing. In the past, I'd be like, oh, he's the best play down here. I got it like it's I don't I don't love the upside with what he offers necessarily, but I might have to get there because if I'm messing around with like DAC and CD stacks with all of the value running backs and you need to be in the JSN range to to stack DAC and CD land, which I don't think is going to be very feasible. Right. So I think that he's a consideration, despite the fact that I'd rather not lock it is 68. Much prefer Godwin that range for Deandre Hopkins to despite the fact Hopkins only playing for incentives. But I think Mike Frabo will get those guys up to play that game. So I think Locke, it's like fine. But I don't know if he isn't scored since November 12th. Maybe maybe some regression is due. But like I think I've just seen too many Seattle games and it's like so frustrating whenever he it's like this dude is a turf more than any other player seen in my entire life, other than myself. When I was like a dumb offensive lineman. So like here reminds me of myself. We'll go with that. We're both balding. We both hit the turf too often. I see too much myself at our locket to justify using him in DFS. Did we talk about the Cardinals though? And I think the other bring back besides James Connors, Trey McBride, 67 salary is high for sure. And that's a concern. He hasn't had a huge game recently, but target shares are still good. Raw targets are still good, despite the pass right over expectation you mentioned. So I do like him quite a bit at 67. It might not be super easy to get there, but a Geno Smith DK MacCalf Trey McBride game stag is pretty palatable here. So where are you on Trey McBride and any other bring backs in the Cardinals? Like him a lot. Hardest part is the salary. Again, it gets tough this week. There's probably going to be some name. I mean, there's going to be some names that flash by Sunday. As of right now, though, a little bit tricky in that regard. So I don't know if I have the salary to get to McBride at 67, but aside from Tyler Conklin, who I guess hasn't scored all year, McBride remains the second biggest tight end touchdown regression candidate. He should have three more than he does. That's appealing, because he only got the two. Yeah. So in game stacks, like if I'm if I'm playing Geno DK, like I have the salary to get to McBride, I think that's appealing. Yeah. Yeah. But I don't think I can get there as one off necessarily. I can, but I won't get to any of the other pass catchers on the Cardinals. They're not fine avoiding that personally. OK, let's talk about our final bookmaker game of the week. That is the Cowboys against the Commanders. Again, the Cowboys win the NSEE, they win this game. So big motivation spot there. They are 13 and a half point favorites against the Commanders. Total is up to 46 and a half. So the implied total is 30 for Dallas in this game. How high are you in the Cowboys in this spot and any interest in a bring back on the Commander side? This has been the question every week this year. Very high on the Cowboys, but it's difficult. If you so that's my QB one. CD Lam and a vacuum would be my wide receiver one. But if you if you stack Dak and CD Lam with James Conner, Zemir White and Bijan Robinson and then you just plug in the Panthers defense, which is the lowest salary defense aside from the Washington. I dive not going Panthers. I'm not. It was an example. It was an example. I don't care. I'm not doing it. It was an example. What's the remaining salary? Fifty seven, sixty seven left for two tight end and two receivers. Yeah. You really got to like love Jackson Smith and Jigba or try to force a bring back in this game. I mean, unless we get Christian Kirk, unless we get Christian Kirk. But like, realistically, there's not a whole lot less you can do unless you go from like James Conner to Aaron Jones or something. Sure. Or you can even plug in plug in Jamal Williams, but it's not enough to get you like I'm not even making a fake line up with that. But like, that's how hard it is to stack Dak and CD this week. Unless we get Christian Kirk. Sure, which we might. Can you would would you ever perceive yourself playing CD Lam without Dak? Uh, that's tough at the salary. I think so, too. And as much as I love CD Lam, he did have a 92 yard touchdown catch that really boosts. I mean, he has 70 target game, not taking anything away from that part of it. But like, he got pushed to the max because in part he had basically 100 yards and a touchdown on what should have been a safety. You also should have a second touchdown, though, if he had hell on the ball. So true. Yeah, I'm bigger. Yeah, I think he's tough to get to in non-Dak lineups. But also if you go with a non-Dak quarterback, it does offset his salary a bit. So is that. Yeah, that's what I was getting at. Yeah, sure. So like, if you like Gino, Metcalfe. I mean, you could like Gino, JSN. Sure. Yeah. You're going to have to play JSN. If you want to play CD Lam this week, unless you get Christian Kirk. But even if we get Christian Kirk, you still might need to play him. No, you can you can get back. It's like 85 if you use Christian Kirk. But yeah, I think that it's tough to get there for sure. And like, that's the issue is that I don't I also don't want to use Tony Pollard. Yeah, I've I've expended all my patients on this guy. Seventy six hundred dollars. His salary went up despite the fact he has not hit 20 points since week one. And that was 21.2. Like, what's the ceiling? What's what are the odds? Like the commander's past defense has been the highlight, but they've also been bad against the rush since the Montez sweat and Chase Young trade. So like, it's a good match up. But like Rico Dowdle practiced on Wednesday. So probably back this week. That's a potential red zone threat. Like if I lose money because I don't use Tony Power, then fine. I lose money. That's my perspective right now. Yeah. Give me Jake Ferguson instead. I think that's going to be so I'm basically what I was getting out with it, let's look at what we can get with CD Lam and Dak. It's going to be Dak and Jake Ferguson a lot. He's just had a really good role. The salary is very reasonable. Bottom two past defense matchup. You know, Washington has like good splits against tight ends. If you look at just sort of raw numbers, they're actually like first in yards per out run allowed to position, but haven't really played much. And if you adjust to the opponent level, they're like 20th. Yeah, on a per target basis. So I'm not sweating that at all. Give me Ferguson so I can play Dak and I'll go from there. Yeah. OK, any. I agree that Ferguson, he's a love for me and he was the love. What I know what your next question is and no. OK, good. So no commanders bring backs. I agree, could not possibly agree more with you on that. So let's now go into our trends discussion for the rest of this weekend. I already had one. So I have only three total trends here, two from Brandon, one from me. You're going to talk about the Eagles because they still have a lot of motivation right now. Nick Siriani is hinted they may rest starters, but like the NFL is weird. The commanders have, by my model, a 13.5 percent chance to win. And if they win, the Eagles could still be the two seed. Now, the five seed would allow them to face the NSC South winner instead of, you know, other stuff instead of the Rams or the Packers, which is probably a better thing. But like, I think you'd want home field. So I think they have motivation until the Cowboys get a big lead, which it's not guaranteed they do. So I think it's worth discussing the Eagles here. Devontae Smith is banged up, but let's look into the Eagles here. What have you seen with them recently on offense? Yeah. So Devontae Smith being out could, you know, would hurt the offensive efficiency, but open up passing volume for two really good players in Dallas, Goddard and AJ Brown. So I think that's appealing. We also have the as you laid out the the situation, the possibility where they pull their players, but there's also there's no guarantee that Dallas they could win and not have it be a blowout. Correct. And Philly plays this whole game. Like this is a team worth discussing, even if our ultimate conclusion is I don't think it makes sense. But Dallas Goddard came back four games ago. He had he's had a pretty big impact and his opener wasn't super involved, 15% target share. But since then single game target shares of 30%, 25% and 26%. So really consistently involved for a four game target share of 24% that the ADOT or average depth of target, only 5.3 yards downfield don't love that, but he's still getting downfield work. So that that sort of just suggests that he's getting a mix of some downfield work and really safe targets, 1.8 downfield targets per game in this split, 33% red zone share and 40% of the end zone targets. He's been targeted on 25.7% of his routes in this split. Travis Kelsey, who I know hasn't had a huge Travis Kelsey year, he's at 26% even. This is a really good role for Goddard since he's come back. But even with him taking up a lot of targets, AJ Brown seeing a ton of work, he's got a 33.6% target share for 71 yards per game, 113 air yards per game and no touchdowns in this split. It's a 44% air yard share in this sample with 3.8 downfield targets. Red zone role has not really been there, but AJ Brown can definitely earn any kind of target he wants. Now, Devante Smith up in the air for this weekend was in crutches as a walking boot. Got a 21.6% target share, but that's a pretty sizable share to sort of vacate. I would not. I'm just going to say Julio Jones, I know scored twice. He had a 40% route rate, but just two targets on 17 routes. I'm not chasing that at 51, even though I desperately need. How is Julio's 40 touchdowns now when he couldn't, when he was like a legit player? It's regression just took 15 years. But I think AJ Brown's fascinating and, you know, Jalen Hurts in these games, very good passing success rate of 52% plus efficiency when you adjust for opponents faced. 43 rushing yards in these games with a 38% red zone rush share. So this game matters for the Eagles. They can get the two seed, but they could also be scoreboard watching. We want to talk about mistake erasers. We want to talk about teams with motivation like the Giants just played the Eagles tough on Christmas. They could get pushed again. The Eagles also have not had a hot end to the season. They might not want to phone it in. That might not be the best for morale. What are you thinking for the Eagles here? Are they sneakily like going to get overlooked because they could be scoreboard watching? Yeah. So I think you just kind of like make assumption lines where you assume the Cowboys commander's game stays close. And if you assume that, that means you're you should be high on Hurts, high on AJ Brown, high on Dallas Goddard, especially because like we saw earlier this year when you took Dallas Goddard out of the mix, Devonte Smith had an awesome stretch. You take one of these guys who gets like legit target shares and narrow that target tree down. That's awesome for everyone else. AJ Brown wasn't great in that time, but like I think that Goddard would be. So I think that Goddard is like a focal point of Devonte Smith can't go like in DFS. You have to be OK with risk. And like there is a risk they pull starters. The Cowboys get up big. That is a risk that could happen. That's very much in the range of outcomes. But like I think that's an OK risk to take in this spot. And I think because there is upside, should they stay close and should they push for all four quarters, given the matchup, given how concentrated the usages here, given how good those players are. So I do like them quite a bit. And I would not be opposed to a Saquon Barclay bring back in those lineups to the rush defense has been quietly bad recently, maybe not quietly like James Connor torched them last week. So I think that a Jalen Hertz, AJ Brown, Dallas Goddard, Saquon Barclay, like full game stack is pretty appealing for me this week personally. Yeah. And I know like there's the chance this World War Watch that they've already mentioned that they might do that. But this team has been so they've been just losing games. Yeah. I think if it's close, like they still, I don't know. I'm hoping that I'm hoping that Sirianne is saying this scares people away from targeting them. That's what I would say. Yeah. Hertz normally would be like my QB1 at the salary. I don't know how many brotherly shoves they'll force if in a game that might not matter as much as it as it could. I think Goddard's still very appealing on a tight end slate that's appealing, but not like phenomenal. Yeah. So I would also say sports books are treating the Eagles as if they'll push the entire game because if I don't alter motivation for them, I then it's favored by 5.8 and the actual spread is 5.5. So that implies they think they push the entire game to me. So I think that's encouraging as well. OK, let's talk about my one trend here. And that's the Panthers defense because the Bucks are in a must win game. They're on the road facing the Panthers whose defense has had ups and downs during the year. So I wanted to dig in to see the best route to attacking them and if we should attack them with the Bucks skill guys. The full season, the Panthers are 30th overall defensively based on number fires metrics. 23rd against the pass, 29th against the rush. That signals we can go at everybody here. The Panthers did have a stretch in the middle part of the year where they're missing some pretty key guys, but they have still underperformed expectations on early downs against both the pass and the rush in five of their past six games once they start to get a little bit healthier. They've been fine on laid downs and the Bucks are a bit too dependent on laid down magic to be a good offense. But overall, the defense of the Panthers has not been great. So I do think that we should get full clearance to target the Bucks here, assuming Baker Mayfield is fully healthy. Good to go for this game. And since the five week Mike Evans is a 24% target share, 46% deep target share and 30% inside the red zone. In their first game against the Panthers, Evans had 162 yards in a touchdown. JC Horne, their cornerback was back for that game, but missed week 17, he was limited on Wednesday. I think he'll play, but not fully healthy right now. Chris Godwin that time, 24% target share, 24% deep, 21% inside the red zone. He has 75 plus yards and three consecutive games. Panthers did blank him on three targets last time they played, but I'm on Godwin here at 69 despite that. Rashad White's salary is 77, which is not low. He did lose some work to chase Evans last week, but that was mostly when they were down two scores late. He did have a fumble, White did, but he got a carry on the first drive after that. So it was more a game script than a benching there. I like White. I'd like to get there. I might need to spend down for others, for other running backs, but White is well worth the salary. It would be a roster construction thing more than anything else. So I think it's fully arrows up on the box and it must win game if Baker's good to go. How do you feel about them here? As usual, I like them. I think Chris Godwin's gonna end up being sort of a core level play for me at the sub 7,000 salary. Still do for 2.9 more touchdowns based on their performance, which for a lot of the season hasn't even been great. Just has underperformed even from that. And I really need the savings. I love Mike Evans plenty, but he just overperforms so drastically with his touchdowns. He either has, he's like, obviously the 1,000 yard streak, but who have like 1,300 yards and two touchdowns or 15 and it's wild, but Godwin I think is gonna be kind of a key for me this week by Sunday. I mean, he's already kind of in that conversation. He's probably the best receiver play in the 6,000 range again. In a game that matters, I know there's, you can still somewhat question the yardage upside and how tangible the yardage upside is, but there's also something to be said for somewhat safer targets. And despite the fact that his ADOT is not nearly as high, it's like five yards shorter than Mike Evans is. Evans is overperforming from a catch rate over expectation standpoint. He's a plus 0.7% according to next gen stats. Godwin since the buy, minus 4.6%. So again, a lot just points to better, better and better things for Godwin. So he's my favorite play here, even though Rashad White is a love for me for White, it comes down to salary. It's hard to get there. We just talked about like, if you wanna try to play CD-Lam, you can't even consider someone like Rashad White, it just doesn't really work out unless you're, unless we get Christian Kirk who we'll talk about more in a second here, but it's difficult. So I love White, I'm not worried about the role. They're not gonna, I would be astonished if they move away from him in week 18 after they've given him, frankly, the bit like what I would maybe argue the best non-Christian McCaffrey role in all of football running back. A hair above it. Yeah, that's true. But he's probably third. He's probably third. He just consistently on the field gets receiving work. So I would rank my preferences, Godwin, Evans, White, I guess. Probably, yeah, maybe I'd flip White and Evans, but it's, I think all three are very fine considerations. Let's talk about your second trend. You mentioned Christian Kirk. Kirk activated from IR in the sense that he's, his practice window is open. He's not activated yet, limited in practice on Wednesday. So there's a shot he goes, his salary is $4,000. If you look at their target shares with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Calvin Ridley has a 24% target share with 39% of the deep targets and a 42% red zone share. So the one counterpoint to loving Chris Godwin could be that Calvin Ridley is right there too and Trevor Lawrence might be back. So I think that's worth considering, but you're taking a look at the Jags more in depth. What'd you see when you dug into their data? I kind of thought you were pushing us along and just doing a quick trend. I figured I'd throw it in in case you didn't have that data pulled already. I had it. So I figured I'd just toss it out there. I appreciate it. Do you just want to take this one? Sure. Jags bad, Lawrence broken. Yeah, we'll be back next year. He'll rise like a phoenix in the ashes, but for this year, the guy's taken too many hits. I feel so bad for him. That's ultimately why I think this is relevant, no matter what we get with Kirk is Ridley's really fascinating. But yeah, this spreads four and a half. It was five and a half, at least at one point. Total is only 39 and a half. So you don't love that, but this team should have Trevor Lawrence, say, John's back, Christian Kirk back to practice, limited, don't know what we're getting, but there is a two game sample of weeks 14 and 15. Three, if you count 13, where Kirk left after that first downfield target, you're grimacing. I don't know if you're reading or like... So I think people are assuming that Kirk will be back and they're looking at these practice highlights. He didn't look like Super Spry in those practice videos. I didn't think so. I think there's a shot he doesn't play still. So I think the data you have here is still pertinent. Okay, well, your concentrated face is also your... That's why I shouldn't concentrate. That's that. Which also looks like a, hey, man, you're talking about a game that's not even on the slate face, so. That's probably fair. Well, it's the same, so. I never know. I've been told my face is hard to interpret, so that's fair. But yeah, so we have a third game if we open it up in that matchup where Kirk left after one snap, but Lawrence left in the fourth quarter and that game went into overtime. So just keep that in mind, but what matters ultimately, I think, is that Calvin Redley's the man. 11 targets per game in this three game split for 161 air yards, but 39.3 yards on a catch rate over expectation of minus 11% despite seven downfield targets per game, which for me is 10 plus yards downfield. He's caught five of 21 for 73 yards in this split. He's better than that. Zay Jones, though, I guess, I guess Zay Jones should stand out to me more in a salary of 5,600. He's got six downfield targets per game in this split, but also left a lot of production on the field. Five catches on those for 104 yards. Again, kind of feels like playing him because of the salary rather than because I want to play him. Evan Ingram, I think the salary is a bit high. At 68, he's got nine targets per game in this split, sub five yard ADOT, but 1.7 downfield targets per game at 17.6% red zone share. Titans let up a lot to receivers, 30th and catch rate over expectation, 28th and yards per out run. They're better against tight ends, but still let up some downfield looks to tight ends, so I'm not off of Ingram because of performance. I think if the salary is just hard, then I don't necessarily love this game to the point that I'm gonna stack it a ton. Lawrence, though, has been somewhat lively against bad pass defenses and Tennessee's sort of a funnel defense where it's better to throw almost 275 yards per game against teams 23rd or worse in five matchups. Good efficiency, but I still don't want to buy in to Trevor Lawrence too much. I'm good on Travis ETN, I think, coming off of a huge game. The matchup's not there. Why is he 88? Tell me why. Give me one reason. Well, I'm assuming people just play him more than expected, but multi-touchdown game last week, 118 scrimmage yards, but not wave. Like, what do we do with the Jaguars here? This is your team. This is, well, it's our team, but right, you're... My team last year. I don't know. I love Calvin Ridley this week. I took the five and a half with the Titans, if that tells you where I'm at. Like, Zay Jones? No. He's trash? Not even when we desperately need or could really benefit from a $5,000 receiver? I think the issue is that Trevor Lawrence missed last week's game, which was effectively a must-win game. And that's a bad signal, because it's his right shoulder. He has been obliterated this entire year. So even if he can go on Sunday, he's not 100% healthy and that stinks, because I love Trevor Lawrence and I want to be healthy, but he's just so banged up right now that it's hard for me to love a guy with bad talent. Calvin really does not have a bad talent. Which is why I could consider him at 69, but I think even though Baker's banged up, he's healthier probably now than Lawrence is. So that's why I lean towards Godwin between the two, despite the fact that Ridley gets the kind of work that I like. He gets downfield work. I love that. It's against a terrible secondary. So like, if you guaranteed me Lawrence were like really healthy, like legit healthy, I would adore Calvin Ridley. But I think given his situation right now, it just, it pushes me down. I still will use Calvin Ridley, especially if we get a full practice from Lawrence on Friday, but like the injuries have just mounted up to a point where it's like, it bones me out, man. Can you rank five receivers for me? Sure. Jaden Reed, 71, assuming he's full by Friday. Chris Godwin at 69, Calvin Ridley at 69, DeAndre Hopkins at 68, and Tyler Lockett at 68. Okay. Godwin is one. You said full by Friday for Reed? Yeah. I'll go Reed two then. Okay. Between Ridley and Hopkins for three? Yep. And then Lockett five? Yeah. Okay. I have a hard time between Hopkins and Ridley. Where do you stand on that one specifically? I have Hopkins as a love for me, tentatively I might move that to Ridley. Okay. I do envision though Ridley and Hopkins mini stacks. Sure. If, especially if you get a Lawrence full practice Friday, like I think it arrows up on that mini stack. You're gonna need, well at least the way that I'm building Linus, I'm gonna need multiple names in this range. And if I'm making some concessions with, you know, quarterback play for both of these guys who are uber phenomenal talents. Yeah. If I stack them together in this games back and forth, I could do better or I could do worse than just sort of uncorrelated plays too. And it is too bad defenses. It's two offenses slash teams I expect to push. I know the Titans are out, but Mike Frable's a weirdo. So like, I think they're gonna go hard. And Hopkins is like the one guy who has like contract and set of things that actually are like legitimate. Like he needs like 64 yards to get there. And if Levis plays, he can get their own play cause like that's just, Levis is a weirdo too. So I think that's a fine mini stack. And I'm very much okay with that. Weather for this weekend, we could have a snow game in Foxbro for the Patriots and Jets, 14 mile per hour winds, chance of heavy snow. My model has this total at 26.7 right now, which is the lowest it's ever been by almost seven points or no, five points. The total is 30 and a half when I took the under. Like that's what we're at in this game. I'm not using anybody here. No Zeke, no Breeze Hall. I know Breeze Hall might be interesting this week, but not to me. 11 mile per hour winds for Brown's Bengals. That's fine, nothing too concerning there. And then 10 for Packers and Bears. Let's dive in now to our positional plays for week number 18, Brandy considering motivation, considering salaries, considering everything. Who are you turning to on Fandall for this week? Dak Prescott, do you have Fandall Sportsbook pulled up still? I can. Can you go to the weekly specials and I'll talk about Dak and maybe look up the highest scoring team for Sunday only. Sure. And I'll talk about Dak. So Prescott's facing the commanders with big seeding implications. A win, obviously just massive for the division, two seed of Washington's 31st and adjusted pass defense based on number of fires metrics. Dak has four games against bottom four pass defenses, 299.3 yards per game, two touchdowns per game, 9.4 yard ADOT, an 8.6 yards per attempt and 0.14 passing net expected points per dropback over expectation that would be zero if he played to the level of the defense. And I think Jim is seeing what I'm seeing with the highest scoring odds for teams on Fandall Sportsbook for Sunday only. Dallas is plus 430 and nobody else is shorter than plus 1,000. So I'm not gonna overthink this one and Dak is gonna be in my head to head lineup against you unless something really drastic changes. Second love, Gino Smith, because look who's third on this list. It's the Seahawks. His salary is 7,300. And it's not that I'm only gonna consider guys with like obvious playoff implications, but it helps. And he is now facing the 32nd ranked adjusted pass defense indoors. He's got multiple receivers to throw to. I might have a hard time loving, like I love Matt Kauff. Like he's a love for me, but I might be lower on Jackson Smith and Jay Burr Tyler Lockett than I wanna be, but this is all good news for Gino Smith. If you're trying to build CD lamb into your lineups or really build around like Rashad White or Devon Hian and build different lineups, someone like Gino Smith definitely helps because we got some upside quarterbacks on this slate, but there aren't like three or four guys who you think might go for 40. Like Josh Allen, he probably gonna go for 28, but- On three pass attempts. Yeah, but like, you know, there's not a ton of 35 point risks here that definitely opens things up. And in five games against bottom eight past the offenses, Gino's averaging 293 yards, 1.6 touchdowns, 7.8 yards per attempt, 0.15 passing that expected points per drop back over expectation. It's there. And if you look at that first game, if that scares you off or anything, completion percentage over expectation was plus 11.5%, 9.1 yards per attempt. No DK Metcalf in that game. He did have a red zone pick. There was a fumble lost. Could have been a big game. Just don't let that one scare you off or at least I'm not going to. Gino in games and doors, 328 yards passing 233 in a game that I believe Metcalf left early. And then, no, he didn't. That's a lie. 233 was something else. And then he had 334 with three touchdowns against the Cowboys. So like Gino indoors is pretty fun. There's a 217 in there somewhere. I can't remember what that means, but. What? Did I miss one? Did I miss one? Well, you said like there's 233 something and you like couldn't remember what exactly what it was. Oh, yeah, I couldn't remember what that DK situation was. My first love is also Deck Prescott. I think he's awesome this week. I do tend to worry about the Cowboys outdoors, but like, does it matter against this defense for the commanders? I'm not totally convinced it does. They've been getting shredded against the pass this year, but Deck is also running in key situations. He has seven rush attempts inside the 10 yard line this year and all of those have come since their bye week. He had 32.2 fan dual points the first time they faced the commanders and for $8,700, like he's the guy who can burn you for not using him. So love Deck this week. My second love will be Justin Fields. He was not great as a passer against the Packers earlier this year and he hasn't been great against Joe Barry defenses in general, but did have nine rushes for his 59 yards there. He has had seven plus rush attempts every game since his return from his thumb injury. And clearly Fields is auditioning for a job, whether it be in Chicago or elsewhere. He has an obvious stacking partner in DJ more. I can bring it back with Jaden Reed, Aaron Jones, et cetera. So I think Fields is a very good play this week. I don't think it's a good matchup for him stylistically, which is kind of annoying, but overall I do think that Fields very in play for this week. Let's go to running back. What's you looking at there? I still have Rashad White because while we talked about like salaries being a little tricky, you can play Dak Prescott with Jake Ferguson and play Rashad White very easily. It's just getting to CDs really difficult, but Buxler in a winning in situation over the Panthers gets them the NFC South, Carolina, bottom four rush defense according to number fires, metrics, 32nd and adjusted rushing Fandall points per carry according to my metrics. Pretty solid against backside of the backfield, but, you know, White's also coming off of pretty much his like worst game of the year from just a usage standpoint, but still played 72% of the snaps. Fumble in the third quarter, they went to Chase Edmonds a little bit late in a multi-score game. Again, I just cannot envision that this team gave Rashad White all of this work and then he's just gonna get factored out or something. So in this matchup must win game very, very into Rashad White who's salary is very reasonable still. Second love, James Cook. You know, I've mentioned some fears about that game, maybe being a little bit closer to the vest, maybe not a true back and forth high scoring game, but even with that, James Cook doesn't necessarily need it. 36 carries over the past two games for 118 yards, three targets for minus four yards, as you mentioned. 64% first half snap rate looks better than the 54% rate overall last week. Had it has a downfield target in this split as well. It's a huge game and I can, at the end of the day, I can look back, I guess really at the end of the day because it's the night game, I can look back and say, look, James got a featured back in a game and meant everything to this team. I can live with that. And there's more to it, of course, but I'm all right with that. And my third love, it's gonna be Sean Robinson, which is, you know, I've had a lot of issues with this. This guy, I think everyone has, every fantasy manager who drafted him has, but his snap rates over the past five games have been 75%, 77, 59, 75, and 76, so to clarify, 75% of the snaps were better in four of the past five games. 24 adjusted opportunities per game, which is carries plus double your targets. 78 scrimmage yards per game, but 5.8 targets, 35.5% red zone opportunity share, you know, not the best overall offensive environment but they can't hide Bijan in this game. I don't think they can either, which is why I'll talk about him later on. But let's start things off with James Cook, my first love. He's had 113 yards in scrimmaging games with Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator. 16.2 carries and 3.7 targets. He has been down the past two weeks, but the snaps have been up in those games. So that's, I think, encouraging still. And his red zone role is a bit better. He's a 25% of Brady, 19% of Ken Dorsey. So still isn't work to Josh Allen, their goal line back, but he's still getting a bit more work there. So do like James Cook quite a bit for $7400. My second love is the one where I deviate from you. That's James Conner. I did want to get him at least mentioned in here. The Cardinals have been eliminated forever from the postseason, but they're still playing hard. Conners had 16.1 carries and 2.7 targets per game with Kyler Murray with 86.7 yards from scrimmage. The Seahawks just got shredded by the Steelers and the Cardinals running game is a lot better than that. So I think that James Conner does a lot for you for $7300 in order to be worthy of a love for this week. My third love at running back is going to be Bijan Robinson, same to you. I think we're all bored Bijan, what could possibly go wrong here. And I think that along with what you said, Bijan's been much better than Perception recently. He has a 21% target share for the Falcons since their bye week. And he also has five out of 15 red zone targets. So a really good role in that span. 13.5 carries and 5.2 targets per game in his full games for the full season. And he's shown good upside. It's a must win game for the Falcons playing against their hated rival, the New Orleans Saints. So motivation, no factor here. Saints, 19th against the Rush. I also do like Aaron Jones and Zemir White is like lower salary plays and I'm fine with them if you want to save a bit more. But I think the total package for Bijan Robinson at $6,900 is too good for me to pass up. So Bijan Robinson, a firm love for me this week. Let's go to wide receiver. Who are you focusing on there? DK Metcalf, I still have some concerns because I think that Arizona can keep the ball away from Seattle a bit, but I still kind of waiting for a true late season breakout from Metcalf, which is weird because he did put up 34.4 against the Cowboys somewhat recently, but then he's had double digit Fandall points in four straight games since then. But there's still more here for Metcalf based on the underlying data. 19% target share of the past four games with Kenneth Walker back. I don't think that's indicative of anything. It's just more like things have been sort of bad and it's still pretty solid format calf. The matchup's too good. He's indoors, 4.4 downfield targets per game since the buy, 1.7 red zone targets per game since the buy as well. There's a lot of potential here. Hard to envision a better scenario and hard to envision DK Metcalf not being a focal point for them this week. Second love as always Chris Olave. If I ever don't have Olave and Rashad White in the loves something's wrong, I think, but past two weeks with Olave and Rashid Shahid, but no Michael Thomas have been really good for Olave's overall workload. 26% target share, 9.5 per game, 74.5 yards per game, four downfield targets per game. Not the best red zone role in this split, but he's getting targeted in this sample on 28% of his routes, which is absolutely elite. Saints need a win here facing a non-elite past defense. So I'm going to take that and not overthink it. Third love. We talked a lot about like the Jaden Reed to Tyler Lockett sort of range, but I do think DeAndre Hopkins stands out is worth his own sort of call out although I'm more likely to play Chris Godwin in a single lineup. But I like the fact that Hopkins can be stacked here a little bit this week, but he's got single game target shares recently of 36%, 33, 35, 17, and 28%. Jags are 32nd and eight out a lot of receivers. 12th and target per route rate among receivers on the year is DeAndre Hopkins. And he's got, believe it or not, a 35% red zone target share, which is wild because he doesn't have a ton of touchdowns necessarily. And he's got 48% of their end zone targets. End zone targets are a little like, I don't want to say they're fluky, but it's small sample, but boy, that's nice. 48 is pretty good. Yeah. I think you could do way worse than Hopkins. And I just to clarify, I didn't really find a whole lot of receivers below like 67 that I like. So I'm probably going to try to play like three guys DeAndre Hopkins salary and above my main lineup. I think it's a very fair approach for this week. One of those guys for me will be DK Metcalf at $7600 similar to you. Since they're bi-week a 24% target share, but a 38% deep target share and 45% inside the red zone. Mention before 90 plus yards and four of those games, he's had 75 yards indoors, 94 and 134. Just let the Seahawks play indoors and play while trailing at all times. And they can be very fun. It's a must win game. So I like Metcalf a lot here. My second love is Chris Godwin. He didn't do a lot in the first game against the Panthers actually literally nothing. But overall, the usage has been up for Godwin. He's finally starting to show us some yardage upside. His salary is $6,900. It's a guy with a good path to potentially double digit targets. I would jump off if Baker Mayfield can't go. And I think looking at Hopkins, looking at Ridley, what? You would jump off of something if Baker Mayfield couldn't go. What do you mean? He's the best quarterback in football. Of course, I'm gonna lower the entire offense. Gosh, you're so disrespectful to the best. I think you jump off your couch in like an act of defiance. I would. I try to break my ribs in solidarity with Baker. Slightly sprain your ankle. If I'm wincing a bit next week, you know why. My third love is Drake London. He has a 24% target share since the bye week for the Falcons, 43% deep target share, which is actually 2.5 deep targets per game or 2.3, 2.25 or 2.5. Either way, it's one way or the other. He's actually getting a legitimately downfield targets with a 20% red zone share, but he's not scored since October 1st. It has been three months since this poor boy has been in the end zone. Free Drake London, he is due for some regression. It's a high motivation game. It is indoors. Still no March on Latimore for the Saints. So gotta love Drake London as my favorite guy below the Hopkins tier. I will probably wind up here. I would probably need a full practice from Christian Kirk on Friday in order to really, really adore him. If he plays, but does not get into full practice, I'm willing to be underway on him in tournaments if that happens. I think that's right. What if he's full, but there's reports, like, hey, he's not gonna play a full a lot of snaps? Then I'll be underway in tournaments. Okay. Well, full indicates to me he's probably gonna be good to go, so. Yeah, but I'm just saying. Also, who's doing the reporting? Is it Adam Schefter? That's the thing. If it's Schefter, I trust it. There's a lot of reporting. If it's Tom Pelicero, I trust it. If it's Schefter or Pelicero, Jeremy Fowler's getting that trust. Some others are not. So, like, Schefti, Pelicero, Fowler, I'll trust it. If it's not them, I'll be a little skeptical, is what I'll say. Tight end. Whatcha doing there before I get in trouble? Jake Ferguson. Seller 6,000 stacks with Dak Prescott. Bottom two pass defense matchup. His target share was still 16%. Last week when CDLam was going nuts, but that was his first sub 20% target share in five games. He's been really involved. Anyone who's like, Point Jason's gonna look at trying to find ways to get to CDLam, but really good matchup, really important game. Again, just Dallas is plus 430 to score more points than like, what, 28 other, or 27 other teams on Sunday? That's a, that's incredible. Second love is Dalton Kincaid at a salary of 5,700. Gets me access to that big game, big, important game, not necessarily big, like for sure, back and forth, high scoring game, but since Dawson Knox returned 19% target share, 33% of the red zone targets, 24, 23 and a half percent target per route, right? Very good for a tight end, good overall for really any player. Miami's not great against tight ends. Yeah, I think Kincaid's a pretty good option. My favorite guy below 6,000 personally, but my two loans are Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson McBride, 26% target share since Kyler came back. He's not getting a ton of high leverage work right now, but it's a good spot for them this week, given how good Seattle's outside cornerbacks can be, kind of funnels, more work, two tight ends, that might be anecdotal, but whatever. We could probably get to McBride at 67, so I do like him. And we could get a reminder of why we were so eager to use him earlier on this year. Second love has mentioned Jake Ferguson since the bye week, 6.7 targets per game, 18% target share. He's been getting more downfield work. He has a great match up here. It's a massive, massive game, obviously. Hard not to like him. I would say Juwan Johnson very in play. If he gets into full practice by Friday, he's a bit banged up right now, but I think that Johnson with the target share he's been getting is pretty good. So if I need to save salary in order to get to a DAC CD lamb stack, Johnson might be the first guy I turned to at $5,400, $300 below, Kincade at $5,700. Defense, what you going with there? Just gonna be hunting for backups. I have the Rams right now, 3,600. They're not playing everyone, so there's a little bit of that concern, but the 49ers aren't playing everyone either. I think that's reasonable. Don't mind the Raiders at 3,700, Cincinnati 4,000 even. Yep, I think I'm gonna prefer yours more than anyone, Cincinnati's facing a guy with a lot of revenge on his mind. They tried to convert the opposing started quarterback to a wide receiver. Let us not forget, so bring it up every five minutes that, well, you bring it up every five minutes. Technically, it ruins the story, but he did volunteer to switch to receiver. And that does ruin the story, but I'm gonna go with a massive revenge game for Jepters goal against the Bengals. My love is the Chargers, they're a terrible defense, they're the worst, but they're facing Blaine Gabbard. The Chiefs have not been a good offensive with Patrick Mahomes this year, so what? He's awesome. They haven't been a good offense? No, they have, no, you're right. They're 10th in overall efficiency, 13th passing, but if they didn't have Mahomes, they'd be like DFL contenders. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but that's, I'm just, I gotta stand up. Haven't been great, sorry, haven't been great. Okay. Haven't been great. If you take away Mahomes, they'd be DFL. I believe you said they haven't been good. Your notes say elite, they haven't been elite, but then it changed to they haven't been good. I'm not reading my notes verbatim. You don't control me. There's salaries $33 for the Chargers. It's Blaine Gabbard, man. Like, I think the spread is too far in the Chargers' favor because they're also starting East and Stick, but like, yeah, I think the Chargers are fine for $3300. Any final thoughts for you, Brandon, before we close up shop on week 18 and the regular season as a whole? Stay tuned to the news because we're gonna get reports on who's playing more, who's expected to see a big workload, but just because someone's playing a big workload doesn't mean that they're gonna do much with it. So just study up, but kind of ultimately trust yourself. You can build lineups this week without relying on week 18 replacements. I'm trying to do that. That's my preference and it's very possible. And I think that what you wanna ask yourself if it's like a running back is, even at a low salary, is does this player have a path to 18 Vandal points? 16 to 18 is like, I prefer 20, but like, if you can talk yourself into 18, then it's okay. If you're thinking, best case scenario is like 13 to 16, that's where I'd say, look elsewhere. You've got lower salary guys with good roles, like some of your white potentially, if there's no Josh Jacobs, like Bijan, other guys too. So I think that's where I'd wanna lean there. That is all that we have here for today, but as mentioned, we are back with you for the post season as well. Same time, same place. 10 a.m. Eastern on the Vandal YouTube page to get you set for the wild card round and other rounds as well. Make sure you're subscribed to the Vandal YouTube page. If you like what you hear, give us a thumbs up there. You can also subscribe to the Number Fire daily fantasy podcast, wherever you get your podcast. Leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or over on Spotify. You can also find our shows over on FanDual TV Plus. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? I'm on Twitter at Goodwill13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. And I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can find me on threads at Jim.Sonnis. You can find FanDual Research on Twitter at FanDual Research. I wanna thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with week 18 lineups. Enjoy the final week of the regular season and the post-season just around the corner. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast right here on the FanDual podcast network.