 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 15th of November with me Patrick Mulnery. In the US on Monday we will get the November Fed Empire State Index last print was 19.8. We're looking for 20.1 providing a timely update on the state of the New York manufacturing sector. On Tuesday we will get October retail sales of 1.1% expected to lift as demand evens for both goods and services. We will also get October industrial production looking for 0.8%. Conditions likely volatile given the supply and the delta risks. We get September business inventory looking for 0.6% should build as supply chains start to improve. We also get November NAHB housing market index looking for 80. Stable at very high levels. We also get Fed speak from Barking, Bostich, George and Daley. On Wednesday we get October housing starts looking for 1.3% expected to reverse some of the September losses. We also get building permits 2.8% as a result of robust underlying demand and again more Fed speakers Bowman, Mester, Waller, Daley, Evans and Bostich. On Thursday we're looking for initial jobless claims, 260,000 gradual downtrend continuing. We'll get the November Fully Fed Index looking for a 22 print there. This offers a gauge of the very business conditions in the region. We'll also see prints from the November Kansas City Fed Index. Record highs suggest positive manufacturing outlook for the region and again more Fed speak from Bostich, Evans and Daley. We ran out the week on Friday with November GFK consumer sentiment. Fuel shortage is probably hurt sentiment but well above the 2020 lows for now and then we finish with Fed speakers Clarida speaking on global monetary policy. We also have Waller too. So pretty busy slate next week in the US from a technical perspective. Dollar index broke through the resistance reference at 94.60. We are now looking for any pullbacks to find demand in that area looking for this final extension up into test the projected sending trend channel resistance towards the 96 handle. From there I'll be watching as this area is going to likely to be a key decision point for markets. Various reversal patterns here should at least see prices back down testing. The projected is sending trend channel support to the 94 area. In the Euro zone we start the week on Monday with September's trade balance. The surplus is likely narrowed as it has been the trend through 2021. On Tuesday we get the headline event Q3 GDP looking for a 2.2% print positive outlook with high vaccination rates and a supported monetary policy likely underpin growth there. On Wednesday we get October CPI final looking for a 0.8% print energy prices account for half of the overall inflation that was currently seeing in Europe. And then that wraps up the data slate for the Euro zone. So from a technical perspective the Euro dollar has tested its Pivotal 114 looking for any pullbacks now to find resistance into the 115.30 for a final extension down to test the projected sending trend line support 113.70s which are bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side. At least looking for a three way corrective move to test trend line resistance coming in at 115.60. At this stage a loss of that trend line support through the close to 113.60 likely will have us down testing towards 112.50. Japan as we have a pretty quiet week although we do have two prints of note. On Monday we get Q3 GDP expected at minus 0.2% as economic activity has been hard hit by the Delta cases. We also get September industrial production no median estimate there but again supply chains supply chain disruptions are likely way on that the last print was minus 5.4% I don't see that improving anytime soon and the last print of note for Japan next week is Fridays October CPI percentage year every year looking for my 0.1% set to remain subdued despite global inflationary pressure. So from a technical perspective Donnie Yang still carving out this corrective move. Ultimately as we find support into the 112.50s we are still looking for that final extension up into the 115.77 minimum upside objective there versus our swing low at the 107.43. If we lose 112.50 then we look for a test of projected trend line support which comes back in in line with those prior highs towards 111.30. In the UK next week we start the week with Monday's November right move house prices last print was 1.8% house price growth is approaching the 2020 peak of 6.6% now. Tuesday we get September ILO unemployment rate last print was 4.5% we're looking for a 4.4 this week economic recovery to gradually reduce the unemployment rate in the UK. Wednesday we get October CPI last print is 0.3% looking for 0.8% supply chain constraints and recovery demand probably lift the CPI print there and we ran out the week on Friday with October retail sales demands for services weighing on the goods and retail sectors so last print was minus 0.2% looking for something broadly in line with that. From a technical perspective Sterling is can just shy of testing the equality objective at 1.3319 so I'm looking for pullbacks to find resistance into the 1.35 for that final extension down from there and watching the bullish reversal patterns to play for at least a three-way correction that takes us back up into 1.3640s area. And last but not least in Australia we start the week RBA assistant governor is speaking on the economy appearing before Parliament tax and revenue committee on Monday on Tuesday we get the RBA minutes get some color around possible timing for initial RBA rate hike we also have governor Lowe speaking discussing recent trends in inflation and then on Wednesday we get third course of wage cost index last print 0.4% looking for a 0.6% despite a robust labor market wage gains are likely to prove gradual and that rounds out the week from a data perspective we do have on Thursday actually RBA assistant governor Lucy Ellis speaking at the CDE but not expected to inform military policy in that discussion. From a technical perspective in terms of the Aussie a bit of a correction higher on Friday looking for resistance to come in now around the 7360 to 7380 area for a test down then to test this trend line support towards the 7260 from there we'll see the buyers are going to step back in and get a run-up at least look for a test of the pivot here 7420 and then potentially on to trend line resistance 7540s at this stage really it would take a loss of this trend line support 7239 to suggest that we're going to trade low and we can think about a retest of the prior loans towards 7111 and that concludes the weekly market outlook for a week event seeing the 15th of November as always traders plan the trade trade the plan the most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much