 I've got the risk warning that I'm scrolling through here and we're about done with that. Now the theme of last week obviously was this fallout from the Chinese currency and we're still kind of digesting exactly what that means for markets worldwide. The end result last week was that European stock markets closed pretty heavily lower but actually US stock markets despite seeing major losses reversed sharply on Wednesday in quite a severe looking HANA pattern that we'll have a look at in the US Verity chart and so actually ended the closing of the week higher. Now I think a large of that is explained by the idea that Europe and the reason European markets have been doing well for the first quarter and a bit of this year is that basically Euro's been low, it's been low against the US dollar but it's also been low against the Chinese Yuan which Europe does a good amount of trading with and as of last week with the Yuan being devalued, Europe doesn't have quite the same export advantage anymore that it did with China and because of Europe's heavy dependency on export sectors, Europe closed down but it's slightly different for the US because still the US dollar is pegged to the Chinese currency and it slightly changes the outlook for the US dollar in that perhaps because China devalued their currency that in effect would be exporting deflation to the Western world potentially and also in the time being would put further upward pressure on the US dollar and these are a couple of reasons why the Fed may decide to delay hiking rates in September and so actually US markets could stand to benefit from it and I think that goes some way to explain how US markets closed higher last week. Let's have a quick look at that candlestick pattern that I mentioned on the US bear tape. So this is the daily chart and you can see we've got this kind of down sleeping RSI trend line that did kind of support prices and we've had a bit of a small, wouldn't exactly call that bullish divergence but more like a swing high in the RSI and a swing low in price and it did correspond with this one here being the large reversal candlestick and we've had a bit of follow through, closed just about higher on Friday and today we're obviously setting up kind of flat on the open, slightly down. So the general scheme of things as I see it is that we're still inside this trading range, you know, we're beneath the 200 day moving average and it's kind of flat at the moment, it looks like it might be about to turn low, we've had this death cross that a lot of people refer to where the 50 crosses below the 200 day moving average but we're still above these lows and to me we're still in a trading range, we're just pushing into the bottom of the trading range at the moment with a couple of indications that suggest that it could break but it hasn't actually broken yet and so to me after this strong rally we could drop down to this kind of low again but I think potentially that's around the low we're going to see in the range and we're going to push back higher again just with the idea that we're still in sideways markets. You can see the reverse a bit better on the weekly chart and this is what I put in the chart forum, you can see here that got down all the way here but actually closed the week up here, didn't close at the highs so it's not quite as bullish as it could have been and of course you still see here that we're below this 250 week moving average which looks pretty similar to the 200 day moving average. Now if we cross over to European markets, one of the most popular ones to trade with CMT markets is the Germany 30, sort of representation of the German DAX and you can see that we basically had this declining trend line here was the chance for it to break higher. Okay so retest to the declining trend line that's normal enough but it dropped through it, didn't make a new high and now we've made a lower high and now we've actually made a lower low. Now it's not as straightforward as it could be having made this lower low and lower high we're not immediately into downtrend territory because we've got this 200 day moving average which has supported the price twice of both Wednesday and Friday. As I mentioned in the chart forum here I tend to think that the fact that we broke this low and the fact that we've made a lower high here and the fact that we've got this RSI rising trend line here which here I've drawn it the connecting these first two lows you perhaps could have done it connecting the last two lows down here it's materially the kind of the same both were broken to the downside and I sort of think that even may we get we may get a bounce perhaps towards this gap that we saw last week I still think that this sort of general direction is down but it's choppy you know you sort of you were reading the last bit surprise action but still again if you try and zoom yourself out of it then you can just see that still it's kind of choppy sideways it's not there's not really a trend here so my thing is that given these last two bits of data these last two indications in terms of high lows and lower low eyes lower lows and just about we didn't follow through on this trend line break suggest to me that we're heading back down to the 10 660 low but it's not like we're in an outright downtrend yet we're still kind of in this choppy sideways market as I'm trying to sort of represent to that rectangle I just think momentum still to the downside at the moment now the you know into today's market you know European markets I think are still generally holding into the positive but the footsies roll over lower and part of that it's just because we have a lot of mining companies in the footsie as we've mentioned lots of times before in this webinar and that's that's holding the market down and with all these for this bad news out of China you know these mining companies are the the worst performing sector and it looks like so here's you know here's keeping our kind of general theme here is that we're in this generally we're in this kind of sideways market where we had a bit of a false breakout after the election but it hasn't followed through and we're still kind of sideways but if this above this low and above this these lows here we're still kind of sideways but as you can see here if this is a false break and we're heading back into the range there's a good amount of downside potential here and if we flip down to the the daily chart something I've been eyeing is this this triangle pattern here and it looks like today that we're trying to break through it now we haven't closed today so bear in mind we could see a sharp reversal higher it's it's quite normal to see that that'll be a false breakout and would catch a few people selling before the close of today so we haven't happened yet but if it were to close below today and we were seeing a breakout from this triangle pattern then something to bear in mind is given the height of this pattern and given this is a breakout area a hundred percent so that whole height there projected from the breakout area will take us to around to about six one three five and the low from back in December 15th is six one two five so just just ten points below so it's right in the same kind of area so a couple of a confluence of potential support areas down here suggesting that we could actually have a quite a steep move lower in the food scene that's just something to bear bear in mind and if the market does close down here we start approaching these lows it's just a fact to consider we could bounce off these lows but just consider that overall pattern scenario there's something to bear in mind in terms of your trading strategy and where you where you're taking your profits and where you're cutting your losses in terms of drivers this week specifically looking at the 5100 which we were just referring to the UK inflation data is out tomorrow and then we have UK retail sales data on Thursday so these are a couple of big ones that I think economic data-wise that would be pushing the FTSE around as well as the British pound obviously and then we've still got a few significant earnings reports still still not out of earnings season yet we've got no this is something I can put on insights as well but we've got Bovis Homes reporting today got person and Khan energy John Menzies Admiral Group rank group sports tech Premier oil Quindale and a few a few a few reports that could make a difference to the FTSE here so we did just touch on the British pound briefly there let's switch over to currencies now we obviously recently had the Bank of England and sort of mixed messages from there will probably not a changed outlook from the idea of a array hike at the turn of the year which is what's kindly mentioned the week before last as of these bank of England minutes which still looks like the economy is doing well but inflation is still being held down by the sort of supermarket price war and and falling oil prices and they're just looking for signs that core inflation which strips out the oil price specifically is moving towards their target and it's just not quite happening at the moment but they predict it will at a turn of the year so that's actually quite positive for the 5100 on the on the on the base of it that there's not going to be an immediate hike in interest rates but as far as the British pound it's it's not quite so positive it's you know the British pound against the basket of currencies other global currencies is strong but against the US dollar the general feeling is that probably that the US are going to hike first so this is the this is the resistance that we're running into at the moment is pretty strong around 157 and we're coming off there again today we had a we had you know this this false break from from this low at the bottom of the range so you could either use that low or this low fake blow there retest of the line and to move up to the resistance but I would argue that that false break lower it's run its course now that we fit the resistance again so that that kind of false break trade is kind of over here with a big kind of bull engulfing if you're talking about the body that retrace that trades kind of over as well I would suggest and we kind of need it we need basically a close I mean it could just be above what I've kind of drawn these lows as I think is the basis for where we we started this this resistance so we could just get a close below above 156 70 and that might be enough to push aside but probably more confident you have to be a close below above 157 to suggest that we're out of this trading range and you know if we given the strength and how many times this resistance has worked I suggest if we do close above that would mean a push straight pretty quickly up to 159 and the more and the more times resistance line gets tested the more significant the eventual break little bit of indication from the RSI that for a little pop higher here that we could be about to see a breakout but the time being you know we're in a sideways range and I think if you're buying a dip down here it's risky because that's just the middle of the trading range and it could just drop straight to the bottom again and you're you know if you're buying there there's no nothing to really tell you that it's not going to just fall away from the resistance again so your risk reward is one-to-one you know you may as well be selling at the top of the trading range buying at the bottom with the idea eventually one of those trades will be wrong when it breaks out now flipping over to the euro we don't have too much in the way European aid to just mainly many PMIs which come in on from Friday now this the euro also is in a kind of sideways range you know pretty much defined by one out of eight at the bottom one fourteen fifty at the top now we've had a pull off below here you know a high low we've had a higher high and now we're just pulling off from this high made in July 10th and potential support coming back in on a retest of this declining trend line which matches quite well the breakout here matches quite well with the RSI breakout so something in and around the 50 level could be support on RSI as well so if you see a bit of a turnaround taking place either on the shorter term charts or just you know waiting for a close above that trend line after a touch that could be your first sign of momentum changing and this corrections over for another push higher so logically we are looking for a touch here to move up to the resistance again that could fail but if it should make it through then I think that puts us likely for a move up to the top of the range you know one fourteen to one fourteen fifty UK inflation data could do it but I suggest probably the big event for this week that would make the difference to the euro and to the British pound so as I can say the PMIs could do it but I would say before we get to that on Wednesday we've got the US Fed minutes and that's probably going to be the critical event from this week now they are a little bit stale because that Fed decision took place before the recent China devaluation which is a big factor in whether they would actually want to make a move in September but we will get a still if it still there was that the Chinese sort of stock market turmoil was happening at the time and the statement sort of suggested they were considering it but it wasn't like a major reason for them to to not hike interest rates so how they weigh up the falling commodities the the risks in emerging markets against sort of tepid recovery in the US with just a strong labor market but poor wage growth is is anyone's guess and so you know there hopefully will be a few clues here to tell us how close a September hike is how likely a September hike is above you're the major pair to look at here is we're basically we're just basically trying to push through 125 is the big round number you know one just beneath 126 was the the multi-year highs 125 is the round number that's getting a lot of selling into the moment still the trend is is distinctly higher you know it's a risky bet to to go against this trend but there are signs that sort of losing momentum a bit not really managing to hold above 125 for the time being but no obvious signs of a of a reversal per se still edging out higher highs and higher lows to some extent I think probably you need a move below 123 at this stage to to feel that actually you know move back down to beneath 121s on the cards I don't be able to commodities one of these is one of the big concerns in the market in a moment because there's just an absolute route taking place but actually crude oil looking very weak but it is now at the March lows and so that's a potential area of support back at the old low and golden silver starting to show signs of some sort of strength so if we have a look at gold so we have this triangle pattern that was sort of widely discussed posted about in the chart forum on a few occasions because basically run out of steam I would cite the reason is this this low here from November is the kind of two areas of support that on the retest could be resistant support turns to resistance I think perhaps this doji from from Friday would indicate that maybe and we're seeing a bit so far today is that that downside corrections already starting to run out of steam it was a sort of dark cloud cover pattern which is not nearly as strong as something like a bearish and golfing pattern and I would think that maybe we've got a chance to push up to that 1130 woman sort of 32 I think is more precise to what it is is below from November and then there's actually a confluence potentially of resistance from this declining trend line through the lows here that was sort of supporting this sideways market before we saw the big breakdown and so I think that that could be you know where we hit the March low and that declining trend lines should we get up there in or around the sort of 143 is is potentially quite a big area of resistance and we could see it as much steeper pullback from there whether we push down into new lows from there we you know we can't tell at that point but we you know we can think of that as a significant level that could count the upside at least in the interim silver that she said silver has a sort of similar looking chart and it's actually the rebound that we've seen recently has been basically you could say stronger than the one in gold because we never actually so here's the low we never actually made a new low believe that September low as in gold we did and while I was talking a lot about this kind of bullish divergence on the RSI that's played out nicely we pushed above that declining trend line but we haven't quite made it up to this potential confluence of sort of lows and highs back beneath 116 we haven't quite made it there yet because these are kind of the equivalent lows in silver if you like and we've made it through there but we've just not quite made it through this April low and that's kept us so far and it could take us back down beneath 115 because we've had a couple of days of declines here that said gold and silver do tend to move in sync so you know if we're going to see gold pick up from here we could see silver do the same but just based on Friday's close it looks a little weaker than gold just because it just largely because it moved up a lot more it's probably going to come down a bit more in the correction so there was quite so whereas gold had a sort of triangle pattern silver was more of just a kind of firm as I mentioned in the chart for more of just a kind of clear cut double bottom where that was the first low that was the second low this was the neckline I mean that was the day that we broke through that and the declining trend line so I think a move back down to the the neckline potentially could again be a sort of resistance ten supports that situation so all the commodities that the people are worried about markets oil is most certainly top of the list not only because of the oil companies that are listed in the stock exchange that get weighed down every time oil drops but also just because of its effect on inflation and and how that's affecting central banks and their interest rate policy so I did an update on WTI today just because that was the one that was weak in us last week when it ran into those these much loads that did make new lows but it formed a little kind of doji candlestick there showing a bit of uncertainty and so I think we've got a bit of RSI bullish divergence here certainly nothing enough to trade off you know that's just a doji is just a sign of uncertainty this trend line can easily break and we've made new lows and they're down the trend is very much down just a couple of little signs that maybe in Mentum's waning a little bit but I think still the path of least resistance is down and it seems odds on that we're probably going to get a retest of 40 before any kind of substantial bounce friend looks kind of similar here I've got it on the shorter time frame here and this is just a I actually referenced this in the video snapshot so I'll post that in sites again as a reminder on the on the YouTube channel it's there too and just talking about I think actually added label just 50 on the chart but really it's 51 is the kind of top of this recent consolidation you could see we haven't really pushed much below it we've got down to 48 that's a good little reaction on the short term chart here on the four-hour chart and so signs of the slight signs of the basing here which would be confirmed if we've got above that 51 but there is some kind of fairly sizable resistance coming just above that area so a chance that a push above 51 could get as high as 55 but still you've got to keep in mind the overall market is down that's the four-hour period 200 moving average on the daily chart the 200s way up here so certainly in a downtrend but this could be you know if we didn't get any lower here that'd be a that would be a form of double bottom that would be a breaker the neckline at the double bottom and could indicate a push up to the high maybe this old low here so yeah label is 50 but really 51 so I don't believe there's any extra any extra doesn't look like anyone's requesting any other instruments for me to have a look at here so probably going to call it a day some of us opposed is that we've got the Fed minutes that's a big one on Wednesday we've got some quite key UK data the UK inflation and UK retail sales so so brief pounds could be quite volatile this week Euro data coming in on Friday so maybe that's when we'll see a move more of a move depending on how the the minutes go you know the minutes tend to be a bit you know because they're just because they're generally around two weeks old so tend to be a little bit on the stale side and don't include the most recent data so take from it where you were made but obviously we're getting closer and closer to that September possible lift-off date for the Fed so anything the market can take hold of it will do and could be cause for for big momentum and and big volatility in the market something to watch out for there okay thank you for attending just below the signing out good luck trading this week