 Well, it seems as if the momentum that Democrats had over the summer is going away momentum is now Definitely shifting in the Republican Party's direction this is according to a new poll conducted by the New York Times and Sienna College between October 9th and 12th and It shows that 49% of likely voters now lean Republican compared to 45% that lean Democrat Women as you can see are split down the middle and younger voters lean Democrat although by not that much So things are changing Momentum as I stated was in Democrats direction after the Supreme Court repealed Roe v. Wade There was a lot of backlash to that lots of women registered to vote and Now the anger seems to be dying down There was also a bump in momentum after Joe Biden announced that he was canceling 10,000 to 20,000 dollars worth of student debt And now that's also fading away. Now first thing to keep in mind is that momentum It's it's very dynamic. It's gonna change. So between now and November It can change again. Now. It's also important is that as the election nears polls tend to tighten So this isn't necessarily that out of the ordinary But something is happening things are changing and it's because the Democratic Party Has not sufficiently gotten out the message So the New York Times explains the biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters in September They favored Democrats by 14 points now independent women back Republicans by 18 points a striking swing Given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans posed to abortion rights the survey showed that the economy remained a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion now if we held the election a week after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade I think that Democrats would have won easily But like all political issues the momentum the anger the emotions They die down and that's kind of what we're seeing happening here Democrats I think have done a good job at elevating the issue of abortion But the problem is that they focused on abortion and they haven't focused enough on other issues ideally the economy and that's where They're failing. So I want to read what one voter in this article was quoted saying because I think that she has a lot of insight that kind of Should give Democrats the indication that they need to change course right away quote I'm shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they're more geared towards business said Robin Ackerman a 37-year-old Democrat and mortgage loan officer who lives in Newcastle, Delaware and is planning to vote Republican this fall Miss Ackerman said she disagreed 1,000 percent with the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and to raise the national rights When abortion, but that doesn't really have a lot to do with my decision. She said of her fall vote I'm more worried about other things. Yeah So what this tells us is that voters have different levels of salience for issues if somebody cares about abortion They perhaps care more about a different issue and that issue is going to be what determines How they vote? So for me, for example, just as an individual my number one issue is climate change My number two issue has historically been health care But over the last year or so trans rights and LGBTQ plus rights has increased in its salience And now it's more salient to me than health care Abortion is also right up there as well The difference is that what is your top two to three issues isn't going to be the same top two to three issues To every single voter and the way that you run a successful election is you try to cast the widest net and how you get Most voters is with a really strong populist economic message because economic issues by and large are going to be what brings people out to vote and Bernie Sanders believe it or not while this poll is being conducted wrote Or not that about just that in the Guardian where he argues that Democrats must continue to focus on abortion Of course and highlight the extremism of the Republican Party But he also made it very clear quote you can't win elections unless you have the support of the working class of this country But you're not going to have that support unless you make it clear that you're prepared to take on powerful special interests and Fight for the millions of Americans who are struggling economically Whether it is extending the three hundred dollars a month a child tax credit that expired in December that slashed the child poverty rate by over 40% or increasing social security benefits or expanding Medicare to cover dental hearing and vision or making childcare affordable The Democrats must stand with the working class of this country and expose the Republicans for the phonies that they are now Bernie Sanders Here is correct There's a number of things that the Democratic Party can brag about that they're not really highlighting for example Democrats increase the corporate tax rate But they're not bragging about that They also got funding for climate change. It may not be what we wanted But it's still something that I think they should be bragging about student debt cancellation. That's really important But the problem is that Democrats tend to lean away From economic issues and whenever Democrats end up and this is a generalization by the way Whenever Democrats end up talking about economic issues rather than trying to craft a message They just run with whatever the right-wing talking points are and pretend to be Republican light Now Bernie Sanders for that op-ed actually got a lot of backlash For example, he was criticized in an op-ed written by Kylie Chung of Jezebel who I normally agree with but in this article She wrote even if we lived in some alternate reality where abortion is separable from the economy It's pretty sexist to suggest that the state ripping 50 years of bodily rights away from pregnant capable people and Reducing them to baby-making machines is itself too trivial to take center stage now Renee Bracey Sherman echoed that same sentiment Saying imagine not knowing that abortion is a health care issue that sits at the intersection of economic and racial justice Our failing health care system capitalism and the needs of working families. Good Lord Bernard This is embarrassing read a fucking book on abortion for once now the thing is Bernie Sanders knows this But imagine explaining all of that in a 20 to 30 second ad It's just too complicated. So if you're going to make the issue of abortion your centerpiece Then you have to simplify the message make it about freedom. This is about freedom Should women have as much freedom as men should they be able to control their own bodies to the extent that men are able to You can't get down to all the technicalities and talk about these systemic issues and how abortion is related to other issues Because that's going to be very confusing and complicated to voters What Bernie Sanders is suggesting here is that Democrats craft an economic message that appeals to everyone This doesn't mean that you stop talking about abortion It just means that you also highlight other issues that are affecting the American people Inflation is at a 40-year high So you can't just seed that ground to Republicans because as it stands right now Republicans are monopolizing discourse when it comes to inflation. So even if Democrats are rightfully attacking them for abortion Well, they're getting away with their extremism on the issue of abortion by choosing to just not talk about it as more Perfect Union explains via Twitter Republicans have spent $44 million on TV ads focused on inflation and the economy since Labor Day per lever news Democrats have spent just 12 million less than 7% of their total ad spending. That's just not good enough So while Democrats I think are correct to hit Republicans for their extremism on abortion You also have to point out the ways that they have failed when it comes to the economy, right? they refuse to raise taxes on corporations they refuse to join Democrats in capping these price gouging oil companies you can actually hit them for these things and Still talk about abortion. Believe it or not You don't have to have a one-dimensional message But of course you should emphasize the issues that is going to that are going to resonate the most with voters now Stan Greenberg you saw his picture in that tweet from more Perfect Union He broke it down into the most simplified message that Democrats can have that would win over voters. Let's watch Democracy Corp recently did a large survey and found the economic argument that resonates most with voters It's pretty straightforward. So let me kind of present it in the form of a 30-second ad Corporate profits are high but hardworking families aren't seeing an increase in our paychecks I'm running for Congress and have elected the first thing I'm going to do is pass a bill that would deliver Working people up to six hundred dollars a month to help with the rising costs of groceries gas and housing And I want to pay for it by taxing big corporations whose greed is unacceptable My Republican opponent is an extremist who takes contributions from oil and drug companies and he doesn't get it Let's work together to tackle the high cost of living I'm Stan Greenberg and I approve this message pretty simple, right? So let's deconstruct the elements of the ad that are most important here So what we found in our polling is that expanding the child tax credit Resonates almost more powerfully than anything else we tested With working-class voters under the age of 50 when voters understand that Republicans took the tax credit away It is one of the most effective attacks that expanded child tax credit could deliver up to 600 dollars a month in the pockets of Working people it's an economic promise that you can explain and show it how it makes a difference in their lives And at the same time you show how the Republicans are standing in the way But here's the danger when we tested arguments that top Democratic accomplishments Talking up the economy and the creation of good jobs while avoiding discussion of the challenges of high cost of living Those messages provide the worst results What we also found in our survey is that engaging at this point on the crime issue hurts Democrats more than their jobs We get a reduced vote margin after we join the debate on funding and defunding the police This is not the time to you know elevate the crime issue The good news is that Democrats hold or get to a four-point lead when they can test the cost of living Time is short, but we can still make gains if we focus Democrats on making Populous economic message the appeal to working people Yeah, it's not that complicated. So the salience of an issue is going to vary from person to person Even if somebody might Hate that Republicans supported the repeal of Roe v. Wade Well, if they Believe that Republicans are gonna be better when it comes to the economy and lower inflation for example Well, they're gonna vote for Republicans because they just don't know any better and the anger that they felt in June is Now gone and remember voters are self-interested. They're selfish and they're thinking what's gonna benefit me the most So if for example, LGBTQ plus rights is your number one issue Well for another person, they might care about it a lot, right? The problem is that they care less about that than they do about issues that affect them economically Because even if they really care about LGBTQ plus people and they know someone who's LGBTQ plus They're going to vote based on what they think is going to help their family first and foremost So we've got to keep this in mind with voters and we can't superimpose our values and our levels of salience of Issues on everyone else Economic issues are very very important and for years. It's not just this election But for years Democrats have ceded ground to Republicans and they've allowed them to monopolize discourse and make it seem as if Republicans are better on the economy than Democrats when that's just factually incorrect It's demonstrably untrue But yet there are times that call for massive action and Democrats can point out how they've tried to take action If you give us more senators, we're gonna make sure that we codify that and make it permanent So your family no longer has to suffer like there are messages that they can Have and it doesn't just have to be based on one issue but Democrats they kind of went all in on abortion and Republicans were able to you know sidestep them so it hurt them for a little bit But things have changed and if you want to run a successful campaign, you've got to adapt and that's what Democrats have to do So I agree that abortion is a very important issue and I don't necessarily doubt folks like Kylie Chung who think that You know, this shouldn't be the main focus But the point is that voters are complicated and they care about a lot of things and ultimately they care about what's going to Effect them the most you can't have this convoluted message message about the way that abortion is tied to the economy and whatnot That's not gonna resonate with voters realistically speaking. I wish that it did but people just aren't that savvy So instead you simplify the message and you cast the widest net. That's what Democrats have to do Otherwise Republicans will take control of both chambers of Congress and that's not gonna be good for any of us So the best thing that Democrats can do is get out of their bubble talk to real voters and craft messages based on What their needs are and what they view as the most salient issue because otherwise, you know You're not gonna win elections that doesn't mean that these issues can't be prioritized or should be put on the back burner Of course, they shouldn't be but the point that Bernie Sanders and people like myself are making is that you have to focus on Multiple issues not just one issue. Otherwise you will lose and to be clear I don't necessarily think that abortion is hurting Democrats. I think that it's helping them to the contrary It's just that Republicans have been able to be more persuasive when it comes to issues like the economy and Democrats have not realized That yet and they haven't gotten that signal and they haven't changed course But they've got to emphasize the economy and they can't do it from a right-wing perspective Come up with a populist economic message and you still have a chance, but I just I don't know if It's too late for them at this point in time. So we'll just have to wait and see I